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Seth Lugo To Undergo Bone Spur Surgery

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Mets right-hander Seth Lugo will undergo elbow surgery to fix a broken bone spur on Tuesday, the team announced.  The issue was discovered after Lugo had been suffering from elbow inflammation during his offseason workouts.  Lugo won’t begin throwing for at least six weeks following his procedure, so he will surely begin the season on the injured list as he continues to build up arm strength.

Lugo posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings for New York in 2020, beginning the season in the bullpen but then starting his final seven outings.  Advanced metrics indicate that he pitched better than that 5.15 ERA would indicate, as Lugo’s numbers were skewed by two very poor starts against the Phillies and Nationals (Lugo was touched for 12 runs over three total innings) and a big home run rate.  The righty had a 3.29 SIERA and very strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (6.3%) percentages, while also posting a 48.5 grounder rate and some elite curveball spin.

A 34th-round pick for the Mets back in 2011, Lugo rose through the organizational ranks and broke into the Show as a starter in 2016-17, and also made five starts during the 2018 season.  For much of 2018-19, however, Lugo was a very effective reliever out of the Amazins’ bullpen, and he was slated to return to that role (perhaps with the odd spot start) in 2021.  While it doesn’t seem like Lugo’s surgery is overtly major, it obviously isn’t a good sign for him to miss such a big chunk of Spring Training, and he’ll need at least a month to properly prepare and ramp back up.

With Lugo gone for at least some time at the start of the season, Robert Gsellman and the newly-acquired Jordan Yamamoto look like the Mets’ top options for rotation depth should one of their projected starting five also suffer an injury prior to Opening Day.  The Mets are still reportedly looking into starting pitching options, and if a new arm is added, Joey Lucchesi will likely be the odd man out who is moved into the bullpen.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/8/21

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The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The White Sox have outrighted hurler Emilio Vargas to Triple-A Charlotte, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets. The team previously designated the righty for assignment a week ago. Now that he’s staying in the organization, the 24-year-old Vargas will have a chance to compete for a spot in the spring. A waiver pickup from the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason, Vargas has pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 121 1/3 innings at the Double-A level.

Earlier updates:

  • The Twins have signed left-hander Andrew Albers to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to the team’s big league Spring Training camp, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (via Twitter).  Albers will earn $750K if he makes Minnesota’s active roster.  Albers posted a 4.10 ERA, 15.1 strikeout percentage, and 4.8 walk percentage over 120 2/3 MLB innings from 2013-17, with 77 of those frames coming in two separate stints with the Twins.  Over the last three seasons, the 35-year-old Albers has been pitching in Japan for the Orix Buffaloes, with a 4.02 ERA, 17.5K%, and 4.78BB% over 266 1/3 innings of NPB action.

Angels Sign Shohei Ohtani To Two-Year Extension, Avoid Arbitration

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The Angels have announced a two-year, $8.5MM contract extension with pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani.  The deal will keep the two sides from an arbitration hearing, after they failed to reach an agreement on Ohtani’s 2021 salary prior to the arb deadline.  Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link) reports that Ohtani will earn $3MM in 2021 and $5.5MM in 2022.

The agreement wraps up the Angels’ final outstanding arbitration-eligible case for the 2020-21 offseason, and also sidesteps that may have been one of the more unusual arb hearings of all time.  Ohtani and his camp were looking for $3.3MM in his first trip through the arbitration process, while Los Angeles countered with a $2.5MM figure.  Given Ohtani’s unique two-way status, the injuries that have limited him on the mound over the last two seasons, and his down year the plate in 2020, an arbiter would have had plenty to weigh in determining Ohtani’s salary considering the lack of precedent.

Teams using the “file and trial” approach to arbitration cases usually don’t negotiate past the initial deadline unless a multi-year deal is being discussed.  The two-year contract will give the Angels some cost certainty while also giving Ohtani $8MM in guaranteed money, and an opportunity at another arbitration raise for his third and final year of arb eligibility in 2023.  (Assuming, of course, that Ohtani and the Angels don’t work out a longer-term deal before then that would extend the Halos’ team control over his services.)

After arriving in Major League Baseball with great fanfare during the 2017-18 offseason, Ohtani is still something of a question mark through three seasons, but he has also shown signs of why he was such a sought-after player.  He captured AL Rookie Of The Year honors after hitting .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers over 367 plate appearances while also posting a 3.31 ERA and an outstanding 29.9 strikeout percentage and 19.4K-BB% over 51 2/3 innings on the mound.

Since that incredible debut, however, Ohtani has pitched only 1 2/3 MLB innings.  The right-hander didn’t pitch at all in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and then a flexor strain shut down his 2020 pitching endeavors after just two outings — Ohtani crushed for seven runs over those 1 2/3 frames.  Ohtani was still able to serve as a DH in 2019 and hit a very solid .286/.343/.505 over 425 PA, but then struggled to a .190/.291/.366 slash line in 175 PA this past season.

Ohtani made no excuses for his 2020 performance, describing his play as “pathetic” during a Kyodo News interview back in November.  He is expected to be healthy for Spring Training, however, and Ohtani is intent on re-establishing himself as a two-way threat.  Help on either front would be eagerly welcomed by an Angels team that has designs on finally getting back into contention in 2021, but a rebound from Ohtani as a pitcher would be particularly helpful considering how Anaheim has long looked for a front-of-the-rotation ace.  The Halos acquired Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb this offseason to help beef up a six-man pitching staff, as Ohtani is again expected to pitch only one day per week.

League Notes: Baseball Design, Spring Training

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Some changes are coming to Major League Baseball in the form of an altered Spring Training schedule and a slightly different baseball.  The latter may have the bigger impact on the season as a whole, as The Athletic’s Eno Sarris and Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) report that the league has sent a memo to teams outlining some changes made to the Rawlings baseballs that will be in use during the 2021 campaign.

The new ball will be reduced in weight by under one-tenth of an ounce, and will also be slightly less bouncy (as determined by the coefficient of restitution, or COR).  While the end result of these changes won’t be entirely known until we see the baseball in action during the season, the changes seem to have been made in order to “increase consistency in the ball” and also deaden it to some extent.  An independent lab cited in the league memo detailed a reduction by one or two feet of distance on fly balls hit beyond 375 feet, and an analyst who spoke with Sarris and Rosenthal believes “it’ll be like adding five feet of outfield walls to every wall in the big leagues.”  The analyst believes an overall five percent reduction in home runs is possible, though it isn’t yet known how the newer ball will be affected by drag.

Home run totals have soared over the last few seasons, which has led to criticism in both fan and league circles that the sport is becoming too homer-heavy and strikeout-heavy at the expense of more traditional and action-oriented station-to-station baseball.  If the new ball is indeed successful at reducing home runs, Sarris and Rosenthal write that there is some risk “that it will leave the game with all those swings and misses and fewer big flies,” but it should also be noted that pitchers will surely also have to make some adjustments to how they grip and throw a slightly lighter ball.

In a more clearer attempt to deaden the ball, five more teams will join the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Rockies, Red Sox, and Mets in storing baseballs in a humidor prior to the game.  The addition of a humidor at Chase Field prior to the 2018 season led to a noteworthy dropoff in the Diamondbacks’ homer totals, and it is still too early to really gauge the impact for the Mets, Sox, and Mariners since their humidors were only in place for the anomalous 2020 season.

The changes to Spring Training will be more immediately visible, given how camps are set to open in a little over a week.  The 15 teams in the Grapefruit League will be split into pods in western or eastern Florida, according to Rosenthal and The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (via Twitter).  The plan is for the “East” teams to play 24 games against each other and then four intra-squad games, while teams on the “West” side of the equation would play a 28-game schedule against each other.  This would seem to imply that the 15 teams will be split into three pods of five teams, which also makes geographical sense since only five Grapefruit League teams (the Marlins, Mets, Cardinals, Astros, and Nationals) are based in Eastern Florida.

It isn’t yet known if a similar strategy will be planned for the Cactus League.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links) reports that split-squad games are being eliminated, so the schedule will be reduced to some extent.  The league and the players’ union are aiming to have health and safety protocols for Spring Training arranged by tomorrow, and more specifics could be revealed at that point.  Since some tickets for previously-scheduled Grapefruit League games had already been sold, Rosenthal tweets that teams will individually handle those situations.

Yoshihisa Hirano Signs With NPB’s Orix Buffaloes

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Yoshihisa Hirano is heading back to Nippon Professional Baseball, as the Orix Buffaloes announced that the right-hander has signed a one-year deal.  According to The Mainichi and other news outlets, Hirano will earn approximately $1.4MM, plus the contract also contains incentive bonuses.

Hirano (who turns 37 in March) rose to prominence over 11 seasons with the Buffaloes from 2006-17, posting a 3.10 ERA, 22.09 strikeout percentage, and 5.7 walk percentage over 974 2/3 innings.  After transitioning into relief pitching in 2009, Hirano became one of NPB’s top closers, racking up 156 saves during his previous stint in a Buffaloes uniform.

Hirano came to North America after signing a two-year, $6MM deal with the Diamondbacks in the 2017-18 offseason.  The transition was initially smooth, as Hirano posted a 2.44 ERA over 66 1/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen and finished sixth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018.  Some elbow problems hampered Hirano in 2019, however, and after signing a free agent deal with the Mariners last winter, his arrival to Seattle’s Summer Camp was delayed by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.

All told, Hirano delivered a 3.69 ERA over 131 2/3 innings in the Show — not bad results for a pitcher who lacked a big fastball, and posted only a middle-of-the pack 23.5K% and 14K-BB%.  Hirano induced a lot of soft contact from hitters and had a 47.3% grounder rate over his MLB career, though home runs became an increasingly larger issue for the righty.

NL Central Notes: Turner, Wong, Doolittle, Flaherty

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The Brewers were known to be one of the teams linked to Justin Turner’s market, and Milwaukee still has interest in Turner even after signing Kolten Wong, FanSided’s Robert Murray tweets.  A deal with Turner may be something of a longshot at this point, as Murray notes that the Dodgers are still considered the favorites for the third baseman, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Brewers are just “on the periphery of the bidding for Turner.”

Still, the Brew Crew might see an opportunity to strike given the overall lack of action by NL Central teams this winter.  Milwaukee has a projected payroll of just under $92MM for the coming season, and signing Turner for something in the ballpark of a $13MM average annual value wouldn’t put the Brewers far beyond the $102MM they were projected to spend last season prior to the prorated salary reductions for the 60-game schedule.  If necessary, president of baseball operations David Stearns could also look to swing some trades to create a bit of extra payroll space either before or during the season.  While some creativity may be required, it isn’t as far-fetched as it may seem that the Brewers could still pry Turner away from more free-spending suitors like the Dodgers or Blue Jays.

More from the NL Central…

  • Speaking of Wong, reports throughout the offseason indicated the Cardinals were ready to move on after declining their $12.5MM club option on his services back in October, and Wong confirmed as much in a recent chat with reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  The second baseman said the Cardinals “talked here and there” with his representatives “but it wasn’t much, kind of checking in, feeling things out.  We never really engaged.”  By contrast, “the Brewers were on me at the beginning ]of the offseason]….I just felt like a top priority.  They made it feel like home.”  Several teams were linked to Wong throughout the winter but the Brewers ended up landing the two-time Gold Glover for a two-year contract worth $18MM in guaranteed money.
  • Sean Doolittle also spoke with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) about his own free agent experience, which concluded when he signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Reds last week.  Cincinnati was in touch with Doolittle early in the free agent process and he ended up choosing them amongst a few suitors, though Doolittle admitted that he held out hope for much of the winter that he would end up re-signing with the Nationals.  There were some negotiations between Doolittle and the Nats but once Washington signed Brad Hand in late January, Doolittle began to pivot to other teams.
  • The arbitration hearing between Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals took place on Friday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, so a decision should be coming any time about Flaherty’s 2021 salary.  The right-hander is looking for $3.9MM, while the Cards countered with a $3MM figure.  While this is Flaherty’s first year of arbitration eligibility, Goold observes that this is actually the third straight year of some salary-related contention between the two sides, as the Cardinals renewed Flaherty’s pre-arb contracts in each of the previous two seasons after Flaherty didn’t agree to the team’s figure as a matter of “principle.”  Goold writes that Flaherty and the Cards came within $300K of agreeing to a deal prior to the arbitration deadline, and continued to have talks even leading up to the hearing.  This would seemingly imply that a contract extension was being discussed, since St. Louis otherwise wouldn’t re-open negotiations after the arb deadline due to the team’s “file and trial” strategy for arbitration cases.

Who Will Be The Last Top-50 Free Agent To Sign?

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After a slow start, the 2020-21 free agent market finally sprung to life over the last few weeks.  The result is a lot of red ink (i.e. signing details) on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only ten of the players that original list remaining without a contract for the 2021 season or beyond.

With less than two weeks to go before Spring Training camps are scheduled to open, the question has gone from “when will anyone sign?” to “who is left to be signed?”  There are still plenty of prominent names remaining, including multiple former All-Stars, Gold Glovers, a Cy Young Award winner, and former World Series champions — including a very prominent member of the defending champion Dodgers.

Any of these players could sign at any time, of course, but it’s possible Yadier Molina could be back with the Cardinals very soon, given the reports of an agreement that could be made official now that the Caribbean Series is over.  Justin Turner may also be down to a choice between four teams, and Jackie Bradley Jr. still has interest from a reported half-dozen teams.

With Trevor Bauer now a Dodger, interest seems to be picking up for starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker.  That could, in turn, spark some offers further down the ladder for veteran hurlers like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels, as there hasn’t been much public buzz about either pitcher this winter.

On the bullpen front, Trevor Rosenthal has gotten interest from a few teams this winter, though several of his known suitors have since moved on to other late-game options.  However, the “no such thing as too much pitching” mantra would certainly seem to apply to relievers as well heading into a 2021 season that may see several starters on innings limits as they rebuild arm strength.  That would imply that the likes of Rosenthal and Mark Melancon could still be of interest to teams who already have a closer in place, in an effort to create a super-bullpen.

To add a couple more names to the mix, this poll also includes Brett Gardner and Brad Miller, who were honorable mentions on the original Top 50 list.  They were bumped up to the 50-player slate for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest after Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman made early exits from the market by accepting qualifying offers.

Of these twelve, who is your pick as the last free agent standing?  (poll link for app users)

Who will be the last player to sign?
Cole Hamels 24.07% (4,445 votes)
Rick Porcello 16.23% (2,997 votes)
Brad Miller 12.35% (2,280 votes)
Brett Gardner 10.25% (1,892 votes)
Jackie Bradley Jr. 9.57% (1,767 votes)
Mark Melancon 6.21% (1,147 votes)
Justin Turner 5.81% (1,073 votes)
James Paxton 3.83% (708 votes)
Taijuan Walker 2.99% (552 votes)
Jake Odorizzi 2.90% (536 votes)
Yadier Molina 2.90% (535 votes)
Trevor Rosenthal 2.89% (534 votes)
Total Votes: 18,466

Blue Jays Interested In Marwin Gonzalez

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Marwin Gonzalez’s list of known suitors continues to grow, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi (via Twitter) reports that the Blue Jays have interest in the utilityman.  The exact level of interest isn’t known, as Davidi notes that Toronto could be taking only a due-diligence look at a notable free agent who is still on the market this late in the offseason, though the Blue Jays have been interested in Gonzalez in the past.

While the Blue Jays’ infield trio of Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio all carry some level of multi-positional versatility, Santiago Espinal and Richard Urena are the top current options for the backup infield role, so Gonzalez would provide a veteran upgrade.  Gonzalez is also a switch-hitter, adding left-handed depth to the mostly right-handed hitting Jays roster.

Of course, Gonzalez hasn’t been particularly effective as a left-handed batter in any of the last three seasons — or against righties either during a tough 2020 season.  The 31-year-old hit only .211/.286/.320 over 199 total plate appearances with the Twins last year, and might be best positioned as a bench piece rather than as a player who could be counted on for a platoon role or semi-regular usage at multiple positions.  Gonzalez’s calling card is versatility, as he has clocked lots of playing time at all four infield spots and the two corner outfield positions over his nine MLB seasons.

Toronto joins the Red Sox, Phillies, Twins, Mets, and Tigers as teams linked to Gonzalez over the course of the winter.  This group could possibly comprise the half-dozen teams MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently reported as looking at Gonzalez, unless one of these clubs has since moved on, or if a mystery team is also in the mix.

AL West Notes: La Stella, Mariners, Heim, Rangers, Andrus, A’s

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Before Tommy La Stella signed a three-year, $18.75MM deal with the Giants, the infielder drew some attention from the Mariners, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  La Stella would’ve been an intriguing add for Seattle, providing a mostly right-handed hitting lineup with some addition balance from the left side.  La Stella likely would have slotted in as the everyday second baseman — supplanting the planned Ty France/Shed Long/Dylan Moore timeshare at the position — and also seen some activity at first base or even third base when Kyle Seager required an off-day.

It isn’t known if the M’s were specifically keyed in on La Stella, or if they could still be looking for another regular infielder.  There isn’t much in the way of infeld options remaining in free agency that would provide as clear an upgrade over the France/Long/Moore trio, though one would suspect Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is as open as ever to trade possibilities.  Surprisingly, “Trader Jerry” has only swung one deal this offseason, acquiring Rafael Montero from the Rangers.

More from the AL West…

  • Athletics GM David Forst spoke to reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the Bay Area News Group and Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle) about today’s big five-player trade with the Rangers.  Oakland first touched base with the Rangers about Elvis Andrus back in November, and quickly circled back to Andrus after the A’s top shortstop option (re-signing Marcus Semien) was no longer a reality.  Catcher Jonah Heim had drawn interest from Texas for the last two years, Forst said, so the young backstop was a natural inclusion in the trade.
  • While Forst didn’t confirm today’s reports of an agreement between the Athletics and Mike Fiers, he did say that “pitchers are a target for us right now” in both the rotation and bullpen.  “I made a lot of calls on relievers today.  There’s a lot of talent at the end of the bullpen and not a lot of experience, and we feel like there’s some options that can add to the experience,” Forst said.  “We are shopping a little late, but we have some targets in mind and are excited to add to the team.”  As for other positions, Forst said the team is pretty satisfied with its current second base mix of Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse heading into Spring Training, so another infield addition doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
  • In other division news from earlier today, the Astros and Carlos Correa avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a contract for the 2021 season.

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