NL West Notes: Ahmed, Luciano, Machado, Otto, Treinen, Graterol
The Giants entered camp seemingly poised to hand longtime top prospect Marco Luciano the keys to the shortstop position entering the 2024 season. With that being said, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle recently indicated that the tides could be shifting in that regard, noting that non-roster invitee Nick Ahmed has “taken the lead” in the race to be the club’s Opening Day shortstop.
Ahmed, 34 later this week, spent the past ten seasons in Arizona as a regular fixture at shortstop, earning back-to-back Gold Glove awards for his superlative defense in 2018 and 2019. He’s struggled to stay on the field in recent years, drawing just 264 trips to the plate between the past two seasons, and in that time slashed a paltry .216/.258/.332. Rough as his last two seasons were, Ahmed’s non-roster deal with the Giants came with the opportunity to earn a regular role in San Francisco, and the veteran has made the most of that opportunity by slashing an incredible .556/.667/1.222 in his 12 trips to the plate this spring without recording a strikeout across his four appearances.
Luciano, by contrast, has hit a paltry .071/.188/.071 in six games this spring, striking out in 56.3% of his plate appearances without recording an extra-base hit. While numbers during Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons and it’s worth noting that Luciano was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, it would nonetheless be understandable if the Giants felt that Luciano’s weak results this spring indicated that the 22-year-old needs more development time at the Triple-A level. Luciano made his big league debut with San Francisco last year but struggled at the plate in his cup of coffee, hitting just .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate in 45 trips to the plate.
More from around the NL West…
- Padres star Manny Machado is a “pretty safe” bet to be limited to DH duties during the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, manager Mike Shildt recently told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Machado underwent elbow surgery back in October and is coming off a relative down season by his standards, having slashed “just” .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114, a step down from the 140 wRC+ he posted across the previous three seasons. With Machado likely restricted to DH at-bats to open the season, the Padres appear likely to rely on a utility fielder like Matthew Batten or Eguy Rosario at the hot corner to open the season.
- Sticking with the Padres, Acee also reports that right-hander Glenn Otto, who the club claimed off waivers from the Rangers back in September, came out of the offseason likely to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation this spring but has been sidelined during camp by a teres major strain. Acee notes that he’s “progressing” toward a return to the mound but does not elaborate on what the righty’s timetable for return is. Otto, who will celebrate his 28th birthday tomorrow, was a fixture of the Rangers rotation back in 2022 with a 4.64 ERA in 27 starts but has generally struggled in the majors with a career 5.62 ERA and a walk rate north of 10%.
- While Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen left yesterday’s game after being struck in the torso by a comebacker, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) that the veteran had avoided a major injury from the incident. Treinen was diagnosed with a bruised lung, which Roberts added should be healed within three to five days. That leaves Treinen likely to be available for Opening Day as a veteran option for the L.A. bullpen alongside the likes of Ryan Brasier and Daniel Hudson. Treinen has spent almost all of the past two seasons on the sidelines but owns a career 2.86 ERA and posted a 1.99 figure as recently as the 2021 season.
- Sticking with the Dodgers, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya notes that right-hander Brusdar Graterol will not be joining the Dodgers for the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, as he’s been sidelined much of the spring by hip tightness and shoulder soreness, though Graterol downplayed the latter issue to reporters recently. Graterol added in conversation with reporters (including Ardaya) that he figures to resume throwing on Tuesday and hopes to be ready to join the Dodgers in time for their stateside opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Graterol was one of the club’s most effective relievers last season, pitching to a sensational 1.20 ERA in 68 appearances.
Jonny DeLuca Suffers Right Hand Fracture
Rays outfielder Jonny DeLuca was hit by a pitch during today’s game against the Red Sox, which took place in the Dominican Republic as part of this spring’s Dominican Republic Series. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, DeLuca was diagnosed with a broken right hand after undergoing an x-ray at a local hospital. Though Topkin notes that DeLuca is expected to undergo further evaluation when the club returns to Florida, he also adds that the typical recovery time for such an injury is “at least” 4-6 weeks.
The injury news is a notable blow to a Rays that club figured to carry DeLuca as a right-handed complement to the likes of Jonathan Aranda and Josh Lowe in the outfield and DH mix headed into the regular season. Acquired from the Dodgers alongside right-hander Ryan Pepiot in the Tyler Glasnow trade back in December, DeLuca has just 45 big league plate appearances under his belt after hitting a roughly league average .262/.311/.429 in a cup of coffee with the Dodgers last summer but figured to have a larger role with the Rays this season, particularly given the departures of outfield options Luke Raley and Manuel Margot via trade this winter. Those plans have been scuttled for the time being, however, as DeLuca now figures to miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season.
With DeLuca out of action to open the season, the Rays may find themselves less inclined to move right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, who saw his name enter the rumor mill this winter but has remained in Tampa to this point. While the Rays are hardly averse to late-spring deals, having acquired Ramirez himself from the Cubs just before Opening Day 2022, the loss of DeLuca leaves the Rays short on outfield options to pair with the starting trio of Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, and Josh Lowe. Ramirez can offer some insurance at the outfield corners while pairing well alongside Aranda at DH; while Aranda is a left-handed hitter who has hit a paltry .077/.250/.077 in limited playing time against southpaws in the big leagues, Ramirez crushed them to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line last year.
Of course, Ramirez was already all but assured of a roster spot entering the season unless the club managed to work out a trade, taking a spot on the bench alongside Amed Rosario and a back-up catcher such as Francisco Mejia or Alex Jackson. While DeLuca previously appeared to be a strong contender for that final spot on the bench, the club may now look to a young infielder such as Curtis Mead or Osleivis Basabe to replace DeLuca’s right-handed bat on the bench. Both Mead and Basabe made their major league debuts last year but posted below-average offensive numbers in brief cups of coffee with the big league club.
If Tampa is content with Ramirez and Rosario as bench options against southpaws, however, the club could instead look to shore up its outfield mix by turning to a lefty-swinging outfielder such as Richie Palacios or Greg Jones for its final bench spot. The switch-hitting Jones has yet to make his major league debut but hit well at the Triple-A level last year with a .278/.344/.468 slash line in 51 games, while Palacios impressed with a 120 wRC+ in 102 trips to the plate with the Cardinals last year. Both Jones and Palacios boast experience in both the infield and the outfield, offering positional flexibility that could improve their value in a bench role for the club.
NL East Notes: Alcantara, Robles, McNeil
Injured Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara took a major step forward in his rehab from Tommy John surgery today, as The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson notes that the right-hander played catch this afternoon, marking the first time he’s thrown a baseball since going under the knife back in October. While that still leaves Alcantara a long way from a return to the mound, manager Skip Schumaker seemed optimistic regarding the 28-year-old’s rehab process as he noted to reporters that Alcantara is “probably three or four weeks ahead of schedule.”
Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.
While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.
More from around the NL East…
- Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.
- Mets manager Carlos Mendoza indicated to reporters, including Andrew Crane of the New York Post, recently that infielder Jeff McNeil remains at least a week away from receiving any sort of game action this spring. McNeil suffered a partially torn UCL in his left arm back in September and spent the offseason rehabbing the injury, which has caused the club to proceed with caution regarding a bout of left biceps soreness that first cropped up last week, though McNeil had already not appeared in Grapefruit League games yet since camp opened last month. That said, Crane adds that McNeil made some progress recently when he took dry swings early today without any pain in his biceps. Once healthy, McNeil will look to rebound as the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2024 on the heels of a 2023 campaign that saw the two-time All Star slash a pedestrian .270/.333/.378 in 648 trips to the plate.
Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham
The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.
While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.
Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.
While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.
While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.
Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.
Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?
Which Outfielder Would You Rather Have For 2024?
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Adam Duvall 59% (2,382)
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Tommy Pham 41% (1,666)
Total votes: 4,048
NL Central Notes: Taillon, Cardinals, Grandal
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has yet to make an in-game appearance this spring due to soreness in his calves. That was set to change today as he was poised to make his first start since camp began, though those plans were scuttled when the club scratched Taillon from his start earlier today.
As noted by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, manager Craig Counsell indicated to reporters that Taillon was dealing with lower back tightness and that the right-hander’s back “locked up” while throwing warm up pitches prior to his scheduled start, though there hasn’t been imaging scheduled for the right-hander and Counsell indicated the club hopes to know more about Taillon’s status tomorrow. Sharma goes on to note that the Cubs are hopeful the issue was just a spasm and that Taillon has dealt with a similar issue previously in his career and that it often subsides after just a few days. Though Chicago is remaining optimistic that the 32-year-old will be able to avoid a trip to the shelf to open the season, the right-hander missing time to open the season would be a blow to the club’s chances in a crowded NL Central division.
Taillon figures to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation this season alongside fellow veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, behind southpaws Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation has not yet been determined but appears likely to go to one of Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski as things stand. Taillon’s four-year deal with the Cubs got off to a rough start last season as he struggled to a 6.90 ERA in his first 13 starts with the club, though he settled in to provide mid-rotation results late in the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.23 ERA across the season’s final three months. [UPDATE: Counsell told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters Sunday that Taillon “came in today pretty much the same as he left yesterday. Probably not the improvement we were hoping for.” While the manager admitted to “a level of concern for Opening Day,” Counsell doesn’t “think it’s a long-term absence for Jameson, so don’t think it’s one of those concerns.”]
More from around the NL Central…
- Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided a positive update regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray today, as noted by MLB.com’s John Denton. Marmol told reporters that Gray has been able to throw from 120 feet and do agility work without issue in recent days, and could progress to throwing off the mound sometime next week. The 34-year-old veteran is battling a mild hamstring strain that has put his odds of making a start for St. Louis on Opening Day in doubt. While Marmol’s comments regarding Gray today didn’t indicate whether or not the righty will be able to avoid opening the season on the injured list, it’s nonetheless encouraging news for Cardinals fans given the important of Gray to the club’s rotation this year. Gray signed with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal this winter on the heels of a strong 2023 season that saw him finish second to Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young award voting on the back of a sterling 2.79 ERA in 32 starts.
- Sticking with the Cardinals, shortstop-turned-center fielder Tommy Edman recently spoke to reporters (including Denton) regarding his own injuries woes in the wake of reports that he is now doubtful for Opening Day due to wrist issues. It appears as though those concerns are justified, as Denton notes that the switch-hitting Edman has been unable to swing right-handed at all and has not been cleared to face live pitching from either side this spring. That being said, Denton adds that Edman expressed optimism regarding a recent diagnosis, which indicated that the pain in his wrist is “more inflammation than structural.” With fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar‘s availability also questionable ahead of Opening Day, St. Louis appears likely to turn to one or both of Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson in the outfield alongside Jordan Walker to open the 2024 campaign.
- Pirates manager Derek Shelton spoke to reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) earlier today to announce that veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal is dealing with plantar fasciitis this spring, which has prevented him from catching over the past two weeks. With that said, Shelton appeared to be optimistic about Grandal’s status, noting that the veteran is expected to return to games in the near future. Grandal signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh last month and figures to feature prominently in the club’s catching mix, which also includes Henry Davis, Jason Delay, and Ali Sanchez among options currently on the 40-man roster. Grandal enters the 2024 season in search of a bounceback after struggling badly across his final two seasons with the White Sox, where he slashed just .219/.305/.306 in a combined 217 games.
Injury Notes: Rangers, Tigers, Treinen, Martin
Orthopedic surgeon and Rangers head physician Dr. Keith Meister recently spoke to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic to discuss the increasing number of injuries around the game, which he suggests could be due to the prevalence of sweepers and hard changeups in today’s game. Meister suggested to Rosenthal and Sarris that “spin is worse” than even velocity in terms of its impact on pitcher health, as both of the aforementioned pitches put additional stress on the pitcher’s arm. Rosenthal and Sarris went on to note that Meister shared his findings on the matter with league executives for a study focused on injury prevention, with the league intending to create a task force on the matter once the study is complete.
It seems as though players remain skeptical of the idea that certain breaking balls are creating an injury problem in the league, with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News noting that several Tigers pitchers seemed to hold reservations regarding the concept. Southpaw Tarik Skubal told McCosky that he believes velocity to have “more of a correlation” with injury than specific pitches, while adding that he doesn’t believe “any one thing” has led to the increase in pitcher injuries in recent years. One of the game’s most promising young lefties, Skubal was limited to just 36 starts across the past two seasons by flexor-tendon surgery. For their part, Rosenthal and Sarris note in their own article that many pitchers in the big leagues view injuries as an “occupational hazard” and are unbothered by the spiking injury rates around the game.
Those hurlers aren’t alone in uncertainty regarding Meister’s assertion, with Rosenthal and Sarris pointing out that while Meister suggests that increased grip strength is being used to improve spin rates at the expense of pitcher health, one pitching coach noted that “research is divided” on the correlation between grip strength and spin rates. Regardless of its cause, there’s no doubt that pitchers have been facing more injuries in recent years. Rosenthal and Sarris note that, per Meister, he operated upon around 230 elbow ligaments in 2023 and that this year is “way ahead” of that same pace. Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, and Justin Verlander are among the pitchers who have dealt with elbow and shoulder issues this spring, while the likes of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane McClanahan, Brandon Woodruff and Shohei Ohtani are among the many top pitchers who will be sidelined for at least the first half of the 2024 campaign (if not longer) after undergoing surgery last year.
More injury-related notes from around the league…
- Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen was struck by a comebacker during today’s spring training game against Texas, with The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya among those to note that the Dodgers diagnosed the issue as a right rib contusion following Treinen’s departure from the game. Treinen is set to undergo both x-rays and a CT scan in the wake of the incident, with manager Dave Roberts indicating to reporters (including Ardaya) that the club will have more information on the right-hander’s status tomorrow. Treinen, 36 in June, has long been among the most talented relievers in the game but has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, pitching just five innings since the end of the 2021 season. Should he remain healthy enough to stay on the mound, he figures to be a key piece of the relief mix in L.A. alongside the likes of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol.
- Red Sox righty Chris Martin was pulled from a live batting practice session earlier today after a pair of warm-up pitches, with Chris Cotillo of MassLive indicating that, per manager Alex Cora, Martin was suffering from groin tightness. Cora added that the issue had “nothing” to do with Martin’s arm and that the club figures to re-evaluate Martin in the coming days. The soon-to-be 37-year-old hurler is coming off a dominant season on the mound for Boston last year where he posted a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances. Martin has found his name in the rumor mill this winter as a potential trade candidate, and while it’s possible that the veteran’s groin issue could be a cause of concern for potential suitors, he appears less likely to be moved following the deal that sent fellow set-up option John Schreiber to the Royals and instead seems likely to join fellow veteran trade candidate Kenley Jansen at the back of the Red Sox bullpen to open the year.
Reds Notes: Marte, Candelario, Lodolo, McLain, India
The infield mix in Cincinnati got a bit less crowded yesterday when third baseman Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone, a banned performance-enhancing substance. That loss of Marte figures to substantially impact the club’s plans in the first half of the season, as Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer notes that the 22-year-old was slated to start anywhere from six to nine of every ten games for the club this season. That leaves around 50 to 70 starts in the first half of the season to be accounted for, though the Reds fortunately have plenty of options at their disposal who will be able to help cover for Marte’s absence.
In particular, Goldsmith notes that offseason addition Jeimer Candelario is expected to get the lion’s share of playing time at third base, which would open up starts at first base for the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Stand and Jonathan India, as well as DH starts for outfielders such as Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley. While Cincinnati’s decision to not only decline to deal from the crowded infield mix in order to improve other areas of the roster, but also bolster said infield with the addition of Candelario was somewhat surprising at the time, in light of Marte’s suspension the choice to maintain the club’s depth ahead of the 2024 campaign appears to have been a wise one.
While Marte’s absence appears likely to increase the playing time available for several players, the specific positions where that playing time is less certain given the number of versatile players the club has at its disposal. Manager David Bell recently indicated to reporters (including Goldsmith) that Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain would remain focused on shortstop and second base, respectively, in light of Marte’s injury, while Spencer Steer will continue to be a regular presence in the club’s outfield mix. That being said, Bell also noted that Candelario still figures to see some time at first base.
Meanwhile, each of De La Cruz, McLain and even Steer are capable of playing all around the infield, and India figures to play a mix of first, second, third, and left field this season. With Encarnacion-Strand likely to get regular time between first base and DH, some DH starts likely to be offered to catcher Tyler Stephenson, and the likes of TJ Friedl, Will Benson, and Jake Fraley fighting alongside Steer for regular time in the outfield, the club still has more regulars competing for playing time than room in the starting lineup. While it should be noted that injuries and under-performance can allow those playing time issues to resolve themselves naturally throughout the season, it appears that the club’s positional mix is largely healthy entering the season.
That even goes for India and McLain, despite the fact that the pair have both largely sat out games to this point in the spring. India made his spring debut just yesterday after being slowed entering camp by a tear of his plantar fasciitis, as debut that was right in line with what was expected last month. MLB.com notes that Bell has indicated to reporters that India should have “plenty of time” to prepare himself for Opening Day later this month, and it seems reasonable to expect that the same would apply to McLain, who Bell indicated is slated to make his spring debut tomorrow. India will look to build on a 2023 season that saw him slash a league average .244/.338/.407 in 119 games while battling the aforementioned plantar fasciitis, while McLain figures to be a key fixture of the club’s lineup after slashing an excellent .290/.357/.507 in 403 trips to the plate during his rookie season last year.
Also poised to make his spring debut tomorrow is left-hander Nick Lodolo, who Goldsmith adds is “probably not” in position to make a start during the first week of the regular season, per Bell, with the Reds targeting a potential first start of the regular season on April 9 against the Brewers. That would leave Lodolo poised to miss the first two turns through the starting rotation to open the season, meaning the club could start the season with a rotation of Hunter Greene, Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Martinez. It’s a big season for Lodolo, who struggled to a 6.29 ERA and 5.79 FIP in seven starts last year before missing the remainder of the 2023 season with a stress reaction in his left tibia. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Lodolo entered the 2022 campaign as a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport and made 19 starts for the Reds, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with a 3.90 FIP in 103 1/3 frames.
The Opener: Nootbaar, Peraza, Offseason In Review
As Spring Training continues, here are three things worth keeping an eye on for MLBTR readers around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Nootbaar awaiting test results:
Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been sidelined in recent days by soreness in his torso, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adding that Nootbaar underwent a CT scan yesterday, with the club expecting to have a better idea of a timetable for his return sometime today. Nootbaar, 26, has slashed a strong .247/.356/.430 with a wRC+ of 120 over the past two seasons but was limited to just 117 games last year by back and abdomen issues. If Nootbaar were to face a notable absence, he’d run the risk of joining both staff ace Sonny Gray and center fielder Tommy Edman on the shelf to open the season. With both Edman and Nootbaar at risk of missing time, the club would likely turn to Dylan Carlson in center field with the likes of Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan among the options to take over for Nootbaar in left.
2. Peraza sent for imaging:
Nootbaar wasn’t the only young position player to undergo imaging yesterday, as MLB.com notes that Yankees infielder Oswald Peraza has done the same after battling shoulder issues in recent weeks. The 23-year-old youngster was a consensus top-50 prospect in the game last year but struggled in 52 games in the Bronx last year, hitting a paltry .191/.267/.272 in 191 trips to the plate. Despite those struggles, Peraza still figures to be key future piece for the Yankees alongside Anthony Volpe in the club’s infield, though the likes of DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres leave him blocked from regular starts in the majors for the time being. Headed into the 2024 season, Peraza figures to compete with the likes of Jorbit Vivas and Jahmai Jones for the final spot on the club’s bench alongside Jose Trevino, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Trent Grisham, though his shot at a bench role in the majors could be complicated by an absence of note with less than three weeks until Spring Training.
3. Offseason in Review series begins:
MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series began yesterday, with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussing the offseason of the reigning NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks as well as the Atlanta Braves, who had the league’s best record last year. Both clubs added a veteran southpaw to the middle of their rotation this winter while also making notable additions in the lineup. MLBTR readers have generally regarded both clubs as having done a solid job this winter, with around three-quarters of respondents grading both offseasons as a “B” or higher. The series, which will cover all 30 clubs in the coming weeks, will continue today with MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald’s discussion of what has been a relatively quiet offseason for the New York Mets.
The Opener: Spring Breakout, Bello, Trade Market
With Spring Training more than half over, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Spring Breakout rosters to be announced:
MLB’s Spring Breakout rosters are set to be announced this morning at 10am CT on MLB Network. The new event will see all 30 clubs participate in a prospect showcase during Spring Training with sixteen seven-inning exhibition games across a four day period from March 14-17. The Reds and Cardinals will each participate in two games, while the other 28 organizations will participate in one each. The exhibition will exclusively feature rookie-eligible players and are also set to showcase the automated ball-strike challenge system in certain games. MLB.com has additional details, including broadcast information for all thirty-two exhibition games.
2. Will Red Sox, Bello complete a deal?
As of yesterday, the Red Sox and Brayan Bello are reportedly in “advanced” talks regarding an extension that would keep Bello in Boston beyond the 2028 season, when his team control would otherwise expire. Bello, 25 in May, has made 41 appearances in the majors across the first two seasons of his career and owns a roughly league average 4.37 ERA with a solid 4.11 FIP in 214 1/3 career innings. Notably, the young right-hander led all Red Sox pitchers in both innings (157) and games started (28) during the 2023 campaign. Locking in a young pitching talent who can provide stability to a Boston rotation that has faced plenty of tumult in recent years could be a huge breath of fresh air for Red Sox fans, particularly in the wake of worrisome injury news regarding right-hander Lucas Giolito. Will a deal between the sides be finalized in the coming days?
3. State of the trade market:
While plenty of quality players remain available in free agency with just three weeks to go until Opening Day, there have been some recent indications that teams are beginning to transition from the offseason mentality of improving the roster toward preparing for the regular season in earnest, at least when it comes to the trade market. Often regarded as the offseason’s top trade candidate, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has yet to move, and Chicago brass recently indicated that they expect the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist to start for the club on Opening Day with “nothing imminent” in terms of a trade for the righty.
Meanwhile, on the buy-side of the trade market, the Pirates have reportedly scaled back their efforts to add a starting pitcher via trade before the season begins. In addition to those reports, the rumor mill has gone quiet regarding some speculative trade candidates such as Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, and Jonathan India in the weeks since camp began. That said, it’s still plausible to imagine trades coming together for players that have been pushed out of their previous roles on their club such as Harold Ramirez of the Rays or J.D. Davis of the Giants, the latter of whom MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed just last night.
The Opener: Red Sox, Extensions, Free Agency
As Spring Training continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:
1. What’s next for the Red Sox?
Fans in Boston received terrible news yesterday, as it was reported that likely Opening Day starter Lucas Giolito is suffering from a partially torn UCL and a flexor strain, a diagnosis that could put him at risk for season-ending surgery before the 2024 campaign even begins. The likely loss of Giolito is a huge blow to the Red Sox rotation, which now figures to feature right-hander Nick Pivetta as its lone veteran arm with youngsters Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski likely to fill out the rest of the rotation in some combination.
Of course, the club could improve its stock in the rotation by looking to add an arm externally. The Red Sox have been connected to both southpaw Jordan Montgomery in free agency and White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease via trade throughout the offseason, though rumors regarding Cease have died down since camp opened last month. While the addition of either of the aforementioned arms would offer Boston a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm, other options to shore up the club’s rotation such as Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are available more affordably and would still benefit the team.
2. Will we see more extensions this spring?
Spring Training tends to offer clubs and players a chance to negotiate extensions, before the grind of the regular season begins but after the heavy lifting of the offseason is already complete. We’ve seen a handful of extensions over the past month, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Altuve both reaching agreements in early February while the likes of Mitch Keller and Zack Wheeler agreed to deals more recently.
Aside from those completed deals, there are still some rumored extension possibilities that have yet to come to fruition: The Astros have been candid about their desire to extend both third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker, though it’s unclear how likely a deal is with either player. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are known to have had talks with both right-hander Brayan Bello and first baseman Triston Casas since camp opened last month. Will deals for any of the aforementioned players, or perhaps even a deal that hasn’t made its way into the rumor mill yet, come together before Opening Day?
3. When will deals come together for remaining mid-tier free agents?
Much of the conversation regarding free agency as of late has been dominated by Montgomery and fellow southpaw Blake Snell, the top remaining free agents on the market after fellow members of the “Boras Four” Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman landed deals in Chicago and San Francisco respectively. With that being said, they’re far from the only players still looking for work. Lorenzen, who is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, and Clevinger also remain on the starting pitching market, while Ryne Stanek remains available out of the bullpen.
On the positional side of things, even more players remain available. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor is reportedly hoping to land a deal in the same ballpark as the one-year, $10.5MM pacts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader agreed to earlier in the offseason, while J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt are the likely best hitters remaining on the market. In addition to that trio, the likes of Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario and Donovan Solano all remain available on the market after turning in solid performances as regulars last year. With a dozen free agents of note remaining on the market and just three weeks until Opening Day, will all these players find homes before the start of the regular season?