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AL East Notes: Story, Mullins, Green

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Red Sox infielder Trevor Story is beginning a rehab assignment today, with Ian Browne of MLB.com relaying the details. Story will play five innings at shortstop in Friday’s game before serving as the designated hitter on Saturday and returning to the shortstop position on Sunday.

The shortstop position in Boston has been in flux since it was reported in January that Story had undergone internal brace surgery on his right elbow. They’ve rotated various players through the position in his absence, including Enrique Hernández, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes and others. The Red Sox have a collective .216/.272/.322 batting line from the position, which translates to a wRC+ of 59, placing them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league.

Story is a career .268/.336/.513 hitter and would certainly be a boost if he could come back at that level, though it’s no guarantee that he will. He hit .251/.329/.471 in his final year in Colorado and then .238/.303/.434 last year. After missing all of this season so far, it remains to be seen what form he will be in when he gets back. The Sox are currently three games out of a playoff spot and even a diminished version of Story should be an upgrade over the production they’ve had from the shortstop position thus far.

Some more notes from the toughest division in the league…

  • The Orioles placed outfielder Cedric Mullins on the injured list earlier this week due to a groin strain, his second trip to the IL this year for that injury. Just the day prior, he had said he was hoping to avoid the IL, which made it fair to expect this stint would be minimal. That may not be the case, however, with Mullins providing more details to the media yesterday. He said that new symptoms emerged once his soreness went away, per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, with no timeline for his return right now. He said he’s hopeful of returning for the back end of the season, per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball. That murkier timeline is surely an unpleasant development for the O’s, as Mullins continue to be an impact player when healthy. He’s hit .259/.347/.454 this year for a wRC+ of 123 and stolen 14 bases. His progress in the weeks to come will hopefully provide some more clarity but it doesn’t seem like an immediate return is likely.
  • Blue Jays reliever Chad Green is set to begin a rehab assignment on Saturday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The Jays signed Green in the offseason to a convoluted deal, knowing that he wouldn’t be an option in the first half after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. He’s now rehabbing at an interesting time of the season, with the trade deadline just over the horizon. The righty has 272 appearances under his belt with a 3.17 ERA,  32.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. All contending clubs are looking for relief help at this time of year but Green’s impending return gives the Jays a chance to have that bullpen boost come from within. They are currently 54-43 and tied with the Astros for the second Wild Card spot. Green’s return will also give the club a couple of months to evaluate his status before deciding on the layered option structure of his contract. They first have to decide on triggering a three-year, $27MM option with $1MM in bonuses. If they decline, Green can exercise a 2024 player option with a $6.25MM salary and $2MM in bonuses. If he declines that, the Jays can trigger a two-year, $21MM option with $1MM in bonuses.

Orioles Acquire Shintaro Fujinami From A’s

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The Orioles added an upside play to their bullpen, acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s. Minor league reliever Easton Lucas is going back to Oakland in a one-for-one swap. Baltimore designated infielder Josh Lester for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM free agent contract over the winter. The A’s took a flier on his upside despite an inconsistent decade-long run in Japan. The 6’6″ righty brought high-octane stuff but a spotty performance track record and wobbly control to the big leagues.

A cursory glance at Fujinami’s season line would suggest the experiment didn’t pay off. He concluded his A’s tenure with an 8.57 ERA through 49 1/3 innings. No other pitcher with 40+ frames has allowed more than eight earned runs per nine.

That ghastly season line is skewed by an incredibly poor first couple months. Initially penciled into the starting rotation, Fujinami was tagged for a 14.26 ERA across seven starts. The A’s understandably kicked him mostly to relief work by late April.

Fujinami’s 5.40 ERA over 31 2/3 relief innings isn’t eye-catching itself. That’s also skewed by some growing pains early on. The 29-year-old has worked scoreless outings in 15 of his last 20 appearances. Since May 27 — an admittedly arbitrary endpoint — Fujinami owns a 3.32 ERA in 21 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 25.6% clip against a modest 7% walk rate in that time.

There’s risk in placing too much emphasis on a player’s recent trajectory compared to their overall body of work, of course. It’s perhaps easier to buy into Fujinami’s stronger results of late given the quality of his arsenal. Working in shorter stints has pushed the average velocity on his four-seam fastball from an already strong 97 MPH to the 99-100 MPH range. He’s also leaned more heavily on a 93-94 MPH split while scaling back on his mid-80s cutter.

Baltimore will hope the simplified pitch mix and continued experience against big league hitters allows Fujinami to maintain his form of the past six weeks. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings of an already excellent relief corps. Baltimore’s bullpen entered play Wednesday ranked eighth in the majors with a 3.79 ERA. They’re fourth with a 26.1% strikeout percentage.

It’s a little more top-heavy than the typical bullpen, though. Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano have been fantastic at the back end, while veteran Danny Coulombe has excelled as the top southpaw. Bryan Baker and Mike Baumann have been generally effective, but both have issued a few too many walks. Fujinami is far from a control artist himself, but he provides skipper Brandon Hyde with another option to bridge the gap to Cano and Bautista.

The addition is solely about 2023. Fujinami will be a free agent again at season’s end. Even though he’ll only have one year of major league service, players signing out of Asian professional leagues are almost always granted the ability to return to the open market once their MLB contract plays out. Baltimore will take on the approximate $1.3MM in salary still owed to the righty through the end of the season.

Oakland offloads a small amount of cash and brings in an upper level relief option. Lucas is a 6’4″ southpaw who was selected by the Marlins in the 14th round of the 2019 draft. Miami traded him to Baltimore over the 2019-20 offseason for veteran infielder Jonathan Villar.

The 26-year-old is amidst a strong season in the upper minors. He’s split his time almost evenly between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. Over 29 2/3 combined frames, he owns a 2.73 ERA with an excellent 31.9% strikeout percentage and tolerable 9.5% walk rate. He’s holding left-handed hitters to a .200/.265/.378 batting line.

Lucas will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if he’s not added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season. Considering his upper minors success and Oakland’s MLB-worst 5.72 bullpen ERA, he’ll probably get a big league look at some point in the coming weeks.

It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple moves for both clubs. The A’s have already stripped the roster most of the way down, but players like Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp and Seth Brown could still find themselves on the move. Baltimore has pulled ahead of the Rays (on a percentage point basis) in the AL East and figures to look for rotation upgrades over the next two weeks.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Fujinami was being dealt to the Orioles and that Lucas was the return. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and Martín Gallegos of MLB.com had previously observed that Fujinami was saying goodbye to his Oakland teammates.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Place Cedric Mullins On IL With Groin Strain

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The Orioles announced that they have placed outfielder Cedric Mullins on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 16, due to a right adductor groin strain. Right-hander Logan Gillaspie was recalled in a corresponding move.

Mullins has been dealing with this groin situation for quite a while, as he was also on the injured list from May 30 to June 24, costing him almost a month of the season. He was able to return to the club in recent weeks but has missed the past few games as the issue cropped back up again.

It doesn’t appear as though Mullins is slated for an extended absence. As recently as yesterday, he said he was hoping to be back in the lineup this week and avoid the injured list, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. But it now seems the club will give him some time to rest up and hopefully get it over and done with. Since IL stints can be backdated by three days, as the O’s have done, he can potentially return in a week if all goes well.

Mullins has nine home runs on the year and is hitting .259/.347/.454 for a wRC+ of 122. He’s also stolen 14 bases and has provided strong center field defense. With him out of action in recent days, the center field duties have primarily gone to Aaron Hicks, who is in there again today. Though he struggled with the Yankees for years, he’s hit a strong .263/.366/.474 in 36 games since joining the Orioles.

The O’s are firmly in the playoff race, currently just one game back of the Rays in the American League East. They currently hold the top Wild Card spot in the AL and are 4.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays, who have the second slot. Playing without Mullins for the next little bit isn’t ideal but there’s nothing to indicate he’s slated for a lengthy time away from the club and perhaps Hicks can soften the blow by continuing his recent resurgence.

Orioles Sign First-Round Pick Enrique Bradfield Jr.

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The Orioles have agreed to a deal with first-round draftee Enrique Bradfield Jr., the club announced. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports that Bradfield receives a $4.1697MM signing bonus that matches the slot value of the 17th overall pick (Twitter link).

Bradfield ranked between 12th and 21st on pre-draft rankings at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic. The Vanderbilt product is an elite runner who’s regarded as a potential Gold Glove defender in center field. He terrorized SEC batteries as a baserunner, going 130-143 on stolen base attempts over three college seasons (including a perfect 46-46 season as a sophomore).

While there’s no question about Bradfield’s athleticism, there’s some debate about how much of an impact he’ll have in the batter’s box. The left-handed hitter put up a .311/.426/.447 line at Vandy, including a .279/.410/.429 slash in his draft year. Evaluators suggest he’s likelier to drive a small-ball offensive profile built around his speed. Keith Law of The Athletic feels he could develop average power but raises questions about his swing mechanics.

The Orioles have skewed towards college hitters at the top of the draft. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager going into 2019, Baltimore has taken a position player with each of its five top picks. Adley Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Bradfield all came from the college ranks, while last year’s first overall selection Jackson Holliday was a high school draftee.

Orioles To Recall Grayson Rodriguez

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Dan Connolly of sportsnaut.net, today that right-handed flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez is slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Dodgers.

A consensus top ten prospect in the sport entering the 2023 campaign, Rodriguez first received the call to the big leagues early this season but struggled badly across ten starts, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.93 FIP in 45 1/3 innings of work. That performance saw him optioned to the minors at the end of May. In seven starts since returning to Triple-A, Rodriguez has dominated to the tune of a 1.69 ERA with a fantastic 36.5% strikeout rate in 37 1/3 innings of work. That level of dominance indicates that Rodriguez has little else to gain from additional reps in the minors, making today’s news that Rodriguez will return to the big league rotation a natural next step.

If Rodriguez is able to live up to the promise of his Triple-A results and prospect pedigree at the major league level, it would be nothing short of transformative for the Orioles’ rotation. While strong performances in the lineup and bullpen have propelled the club to an excellent 56-35 record so far this season, a mediocre rotation has held the club back in their pursuit of the division-leading Rays for the AL East crown. Orioles starts rank just 18th in the majors in ERA and bottom five in the AL in terms of fWAR this season, with the likes of Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Gibson offering performances closer to serviceable than dominant.

By calling up Rodriguez two weeks before the trade deadline on August 1, the Orioles will be able to see the 23-year-old hurler make multiple starts before trade season comes to an end. That’ll give the club valuable information about how much he can be relied on to make an impact for the club as Baltimore eyes a return to postseason play for the first time since 2016. The Orioles have long been expected to add to their rotation ahead of the coming trade deadline, but a dominant showing from the youngster could give the club’s front office additional confidence in pursuing a top-of-the-market option such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery to pair with Rodriguez at the front of the club’s rotation.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, but a corresponding move will nonetheless be required prior to tomorrow’s game in order to make room for the right-hander on the active roster. Connolly notes that left-hander Cole Irvin will move to the bullpen going forward to make room for Rodriguez in the club’s rotation. After being acquired from the A’s in an offseason trade, Irvin had a disastrous start to his Orioles career with a 10.66 ERA across his first three starts of the season. That led the club to demote him in early April, though in 25 innings of work in the big leagues since then he’s posted a far more palatable 2.88 ERA and 4.04 FIP. He figures to offer the Orioles a solid multi-inning option out of the bullpen going forward.

AL East Notes: Rays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Romano

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While the Rays are typically known for making careful, calculated moves in order to maximize long-term success, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times discussed yesterday the possibility of Tampa making a splash in the trade market prior to the trade deadline on August 1 by pursuing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, on whom the Angels are expected to consider offers.

Such a move would be a major departure from the club’s typical model, though president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his front office have shown a willingness to be more aggressive in recent years. Trading promising right-hander Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, extending Wander Franco on an 11-year deal that offseason, and pursuing Freddie Freeman in free agency are all signs from the relatively recent past that the Rays could be willing to take bigger swings in their pursuit of a World Series championship, and there’s no acquisition that would move the needle more than Ohtani.

While the club certainly has the pieces necessary to swing a deal for Ohtani between a farm system that ranks 8th in the majors per Fangraphs and a deep group of position players at the big league level, Topkin cautions that the Rays are highly unlikely to enter a bidding war for Ohtani as the club wouldn’t be able to retain the superstar in free agency. Between that unwillingness to beat out other potential suitors like the Yankees and Dodgers for Ohtani and the considerable chance that the Angels don’t move him at all, as they’re currently sitting just one game under .500 and five games back of a Wild Card berth, Ohtani in a Rays uniform certainly seems unlikely.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited yesterday’s game with right quad tightness, as noted by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Mullins is currently considered day-to-day, and the club will check in with him today to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed optimism following yesterday’s game, telling reporters (including Kubatko) that the club is “hoping we caught a break there.” Fortunately for the Orioles, they boast a deep group of position players that can help cover for Mullins in the event he misses time, though properly replacing a strong defensive center fielder with a 123 wRC+ is easier said than done.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, the club has been taking things slowly with first baseman Ryan Mountcastle as he returns from a month on the injured list due to vertigo. While Mountcastle has looked good in limited time since coming off the IL, with a single and a double in five trips to the plate, Kubatko notes that his ability to reclaim a full-time role has been further complicated by the emergence of Ryan O’Hearn as a legitimate starting option. In 156 plate appearances this season, O’Hearn has slashed an impressive .310/.359/.528 with a wRC+ of 143, albeit in a strictly platoon role. Though Mountcastle currently seems poised to see most of his starts come against southpaws, Hyde indicated that setup may not be permanent, telling reporters that he’s “sure” Mountcastle will get some starts against same-handed pitching and that “we’ll see how the second half goes.”
  • Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano exited the All-Star game last week due to lower back tightness and has since undergone an MRI, as relayed by SportsCentre’s Scott Mitchell. Manager John Schneider told reporters, including Mitchell, that the imaging came back clean and Romano is currently considered day-to-day. Romano has established himself as one of the league’s best closers over the past four seasons, pitching to a 2.21 ERA (190 ERA+) and a 3.01 FIP while racking up 87 saves. In the event the right-hander is unavailable, Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia appear to be the most likely candidates to handle the ninth.

Anthony Bemboom Accepts Outright Assignment With Orioles

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The Orioles announced that catcher Anthony Bemboom, who was designated for assignment last week, has cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll stay in the organization and provide them with some non-roster depth behind the plate.

The O’s have Adley Rutschman firmly entrenched as their primary catcher and have had James McCann in the backup role for much of the year. Bemboom has been selected to the club’s roster twice this year, with each of those stints in the big leagues corresponding with McCann’s two trips to the injured list. He got into two games in April before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and accepting an outright assignment. The same process has now taken place again over the past few weeks, with Bemboom getting into another four contests this time, bringing his tally for the year to six.

Bemboom has now appeared in 82 games dating back to the 2019 season with a line of just .161/.236/.260 to show for it. He’s generally fared much better in the minors, including this year. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in 89 plate appearances down on the farm this year while hitting .273/.371/.377 overall. Defensively, he has +3 Defensive Runs Saved in his big league career and positive grades from the framing metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

He’s clearly comfortable with the organization, as this is the fourth time he’s chosen to accept an outright assignment since first joining the club on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season. The O’s, meanwhile, clearly value experienced catching depth, as they have had players like Meibrys Viloria, José Godoy and Mark Kolozsvary in the organization at various points this year, along with Bemboom. With both sides seemingly content with the relationship, Bemboom will stick in Triple-A and await the next time he’s needed at the big league level.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • With the Cardinals being sellers for the first time in 20 years, who do you anticipate to be moved? And what is realistic return with an eye on 2024 contention? (23:30)
  • Who trades for Joey Bart? (26:00)
  • Are the Yankees buyers or sellers? And what, if anything, do you see them doing in either position? (28:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The Orioles’ All-Star Relief Duo

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The Midsummer Classic is a little less than 24 hours away. In the American League bullpen will be a pair of Orioles teammates to potentially make their respective first All-Star appearances. While neither player entered the Baltimore organization with much fanfare, their emergence as an elite late-game duo has helped the O’s to a 54-35 record that has them just two games behind the AL-leading Rays.

Félix Bautista first entered the professional ranks as an international signee of the Marlins. He spent two and a half years in the Miami system, didn’t advance past rookie ball, and was released. The Orioles signed him midway through the 2016 campaign. Bautista remained in the low minors for a while, not even reaching Low-A until his age-24 season in 2019.

Given that background, it’s not surprising he never appeared on an organizational top 30 prospects list at Baseball America. He’d go unselected in the Rule 5 draft on a couple occasions before securing a spot on the O’s 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason.

As a 27-year-old rookie, he somewhat surprisingly broke camp last year despite walking over 15% of minor league opponents the preceding season. Bautista rewarded the organization’s faith by immediately dominating MLB hitters. He worked to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out a little under 35% of opponents. By year’s end, he’d ascended to a ninth-inning role vacated by a midseason trade we’ll revisit later.

Bautista entered 2023 assured of a high-leverage spot in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen if healthy. The latter caveat was no sure thing in exhibition play. Bautista was hampered early in camp by knee and shoulder issues. Fortunately for the Orioles, he was not only ready to go by Opening Day, he’d taken his game to another level.

The towering 6’8″ hurler was MLB’s best reliever in the first half. He’s thrown 42 innings with a 1.07 ERA, locking down 23 of 28 save opportunities. Bautista has incredibly punched out 84 of the 165 hitters who’ve stepped in against him. His 50.9% strikeout rate leads the majors by a wide margin. The 7.7 point gap between Bautista’s figure and Aroldis Chapman’s 43.2% second-place mark exceeds the difference between Chapman and Trevor Richards in 11th place (minimum 20 relief innings).

Among that same group, only Robert Stephenson is getting swinging strikes more frequently than Bautista, who has gotten whiffs on 20.9% of his offerings. Jhoan Durán, Chapman and Jordan Hicks are the three pitchers averaging better than the even 100 MPH on Bautista’s four-seam. There’s an argument Bautista is the best reliever in the game and he’s on his way to getting some down-ballot Cy Young support this fall.

Yennier Cano isn’t likely to appear on any Cy Young ballots, but he could find some Rookie of the Year support. His emergence might be even more unexpected than Bautista’s. Cano didn’t get to the big leagues until after his 28th birthday. The Twins signed the right-hander out of Cuba a few seasons back and selected him onto the MLB roster last May. He made 10 appearances in a depth role for Minnesota, allowing more than an earned run per inning.

At last summer’s deadline, the O’s and Twins lined up on an aforementioned trade. Baltimore dealt then-closer Jorge López to Minnesota for a four-player package. Cano was the only one of the group with any big league experience but arguably perceived as the fourth player in the return. He spent most of the late-summer at Triple-A Norfolk, only pitching three times for Baltimore at the MLB level.

Cano opened this season back in Norfolk. The O’s recalled him in the middle of April. The 6’4″ righty never gave Baltimore an opportunity to send him back down. Cano has posted a 1.48 ERA over 42 2/3 innings. He quickly jumped up the depth chart and has already picked up four saves and 19 holds.

Unlike Bautista, Cano isn’t racking up whiffs. His 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are around average for a reliever. He has excelled by limiting contact quality, keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 64.3% clip. He owns the fifth-highest grounder rate among relievers with 20+ frames.

Cano had always shown a knack for keeping on the ball on the ground throughout his minor league tenure. He’d been prone to bouts of wildness throughout that time, though, routinely walking opponents at a double-digit percent clip. His strike-throwing has been exceptional this season, as he’s handed out free passes to less than 4% of batters faced. Whether he can keep pounding the zone at this rate remains to be seen, but the grounders should make him a quality high-leverage arm even if his walks were to move closer to league average.

The Bautista-Cano pairing has become one of the game’s most effective relief duos. The Orioles probably didn’t anticipate this kind of dominance from either pitcher, but their respective acquisitions — Bautista as a minor league signee, Cano as a small part of a bigger trade — are strong credits to their scouting staffs. They’ll be in the national spotlight tomorrow in Seattle, and they’re doing their part to get Baltimore back to the postseason after a long rebuild.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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