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Orioles Outright Brett Phillips

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9:52am: Phillips has accepted his outright assignment, MLBTR has confirmed. He’ll remain with the organization in Triple-A.

8:30am: Outfielder Brett Phillips went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk, the Orioles announced late last night. Phillips was designated for assignment last week when Baltimore called outfield prospect Kyle Stowers up to the big leagues.

Phillips has the three-plus years of service time needed to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, but he does not have the five-plus years needed to reject the assignment while retaining the remainder of his salary. There’s about $346K to be paid out on this year’s $1.4MM salary; he’d earn half that much were he to reject and sign elsewhere for the prorated league minimum.

That Phillips went unclaimed is at least somewhat of a surprise, even given his struggles at the plate in 2022. He’s hitting just .144/.217/.249 in 225 plate appearances this year, but Phillips is a dynamic defender — one of the game’s best, regardless of position — and possesses plus speed and power. Major strikeout issues (career 37.8%) and dismal splits against lefties limit his overall offensive output, but Phillips is still the type of fleet-footed, lights-out defender that many clubs like to carry down the stretch — both when September rosters expand to 28 players and, in some cases, into the postseason.

Prior to the 2022 campaign, Phillips carried a .203/.291/.381 slash in 675 MLB plate appearances — still well below par but far closer to passable than this year’s output, particularly when considering his 23 home runs, 29 steals (in 34 tries) and elite defensive marks. In 2136 career innings in the outfield, he has 39 Defensive Runs Saved, 31 Outs Above Average and a 25.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.

For now, assuming he accepts the outright assignment, he’ll remain with the Orioles but won’t count against their 40-man roster while playing in Norfolk. If Phillips isn’t added back to the 40-man roster before season’s end, he’ll become a free agent this offseason (as is the right of all outrighted players with at least three years of Major League service time).

Orioles Designate Brett Phillips For Assignment, Select Kyle Stowers

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably designating veteran outfielder Brett Phillips for assignment and selecting the contract of outfield prospect Kyle Stowers. Baltimore also recalled infielder Richie Martin and lefty Nick Vespi from Triple-A Norfolk, placed infielder Terrin Vavra on the paternity list and optioned right-hander Logan Gillaspie to Norfolk.

Phillips, 28, was acquired from the Rays in exchange for cash on the morning of Aug. 2, just hours before the trade deadline. He’d recently been designated for assignment by Tampa Bay, following the Rays’ acquisition of Jose Siri. Phillips received just 17 plate appearances in his nearly three weeks with Baltimore, going 2-for-17 with a pair of doubles, no walks and nine strikeouts (.118/.118/.235).

Despite the fact that Phillips carries a dismal .147/.217/.249 batting line through 225 plate appearances this season, there’s a decent chance that he’ll end up being claimed once the Orioles put him on waivers (which is the only course of action for them to take now that he’s been designated for assignment and the trade deadline has passed). Phillips is regarded as one of the game’s best gloves — a lights-out defender with plus speed who can handle any of the three outfield slots with aplomb, as evidenced by career marks of 39 Defensive Runs Saved, a 25.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and 31 Outs Above Average (in just 2136 innings of outfield play).

Phillips has never provided a ton of value with the bat, but he’s been considerably better in past seasons than his 2022 numbers would indicate. Entering the 2022 season, Phillips was a .203/.291/.381 hitter with 23 home runs and 29 steals (34 tries) through 675 plate appearances. That’s still well below the league average, of course, but paired with his elite brand of outfield defense, that blend of power and speed still made him a valuable role player.

Given the speed, defense and power, Phillips figures to hold appeal to outfield-needy teams on the waiver wire — particularly with rosters soon to expand from 26 to 28 players in September. Phillips is an ideal late-inning option to have on a postseason club, as he’s an upgrade over at least one outfielder on any team in the Majors and is a threat for a stolen base or perhaps a pinch-hit against a right-handed arm in the right scenario.

As for Stowers, 24, the outfielder was chosen with the 71st overall selection in the 2019 draft. Since then, he’s earned praise from prospect evaluators, largely because of his offensive work. Baseball America has ranked him as one of the top 30 Baltimore prospects in each of the past three years. This year, he’s played 95 games in Triple-A, hitting 19 home runs and slashing .264/.357/.527. That production amounts to a wRC+ of 131, indicating he’s been 31% better at the plate than the league average hitter. He’s also lowered his strikeout rate to 25.6% for the season, which is still higher than average but a marked improvement over last year’s 32.3% rate.

Stowers has already made his MLB debut, getting a brief two-game stint in Toronto earlier this year when a couple of his teammates couldn’t make the journey due to their unvaccinated status. Since he was designated a COVID “substitute” for that series, the O’s were able to remove him from the roster without exposing him to waivers. He has now earned a roster spot in the more traditional way and figures to get a more extended look this time around.

Stowers has played 44 games in center field this year, along with 38 in right and 13 in left. He will jump into an outfield mix that also includes Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan McKenna, though Santander has been getting a lot of time as the designated hitter since the Trey Mancini trade.

The Orioles have burst forth out of their rebuild this season and are hanging around the American League postseason picture, currently just 2 1/2 games back. Stowers will have the final six-plus weeks of the season to try to help them with that race as well as trying to earn a spot on the team’s roster going forward, for a club whose future looks increasingly bright.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

GM Mike Elias: Orioles Will “Significantly Escalate The Payroll” During Offseason

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The Orioles have been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season, emerging from years of rebuilding and mediocrity to post a 59-54 record and challenge for a wild card slot.  Even if it looks like the O’s may have turned the corner already, the club definitely wants to make winning a habit going forward, and a payroll increase will come along with that planned return to contention.

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.  “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively.  We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

In a sense, there was nowhere to go but up for Baltimore’s spending considering that the team’s Opening Day was just under $43.8MM.  This was the lowest amount any team was spending on its active roster, marking the fourth straight season that the O’s have been at or near the very bottom of the payroll list.  As Elias noted, several players (Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Dillon Tate) are becoming arbitration-eligible for the first time, while Anthony Santander is due a raise for his third trip through the arb process.

Still, it counts as a positive for Baltimore fans that a rising arbitration price tag doesn’t automatically make a player into a trade candidate, given all of the cost-cutting that has gone on during Elias’ rebuild.  And now, Elias seems poised to make some significant veteran additions for the first time in his three-plus seasons in charge of the front office.

At the end of the 2017 season, the Orioles carried a franchise record payroll of just under $167.5MM.  It is probably safe to assume that the O’s won’t suddenly jump back to that number in a single offseason, so a Rangers-esque offseason splurge likely isn’t in the cards.  There is also the lingering question of a reported dispute within the Orioles’ ownership group, and whatever impact that could potentially have over the franchise’s willingness to spend (or who is ultimately making any big-picture spending decisions).

If Elias’ past job in the Astros front office is any guide, the Orioles’ winter could be somewhat akin to what Houston did in the wake of the 2015 season.  After six losing seasons and an extensive rebuild, the Astros won 86 games and the AL Wild Card game, catching many fans and pundits off-guard in the same way that the Orioles have surprised this year.  However, the Astros had a busy offseason that still stopped short of any true blockbuster moves, perhaps owing to both a feeling that the 2015 club was a bit ahead of schedule, and because Houston still wanted to see what it really had in some highly-touted youngsters who had yet to break out or even arrive in the majors.  (For instance, 2016 was Alex Bregman’s debut season.)

The same could be said of the current Orioles, considering that so many of their top prospects — Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser — haven’t made their MLB debuts, while the likes of DL Hall and Kyle Stowers have only been up for a cup of coffee.  That leaves the O’s with some uncertainty over who will or won’t be cornerstone pieces, and yet the sheer depth of prospect talent definitely bodes well for the future.  And of course, Adley Rutschman has hit the ground running in his rookie season and already looks like one of the sport’s best catchers.

As much as Elias is tied to Astros history as the team’s former assistant GM and scouting director, he also wasn’t calling the shots in that organization, whereas he is at the top of Baltimore’s front office pyramid.  It will be interesting to see Elias’ approach now that he is building rather than rebuilding, and given this lack of history, we can’t rule out a pursuit of, say, a major free agent.  Elias did already pass on one chance to add to the Orioles at the trade deadline, as even with the team in contention, the club still dealt Jorge Lopez to the Twins and Trey Mancini to the Astros.

Orioles Plan To Use DL Hall As A Reliever

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Orioles pitching prospect DL Hall made his Major League debut yesterday, allowing five runs over 3 2/3 innings in an 8-2 loss to the Rays.  The outing will act as a cup of coffee for Hall for the time being, as the Orioles will send him back to Triple-A today and transition him to relief pitching.  MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s view Hall as an intriguing bullpen option for this season, as a live arm with the potential to work multiple innings in a game.

The move also allows for the Orioles to limit Hall’s innings.  With 81 1/3 total frames pitched in the majors and minors this season, Hall is already within sight of his career high of 94 1/3 innings pitched (in 2018 in A-ball).  Given Hall’s injury history and the fact that he tossed only 31 2/3 IP last year, Baltimore is trying to both manage Hall’s health and capitalize on his short-term potential to help the Orioles’ surprising postseason bid.

Orioles Promote DL Hall

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TODAY: The Orioles officially announced Hall’s promotion.  Left-hander Nick Vespi was optioned to Triple-A to make room on Baltimore’s active roster.

AUGUST 12, 9:41pm: Hall will start Saturday’s game, Hyde confirmed to reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). Kostka first suggested as much this afternoon.

2:59pm: Top pitching prospect DL Hall is traveling to meet the Orioles in St. Petersburg for their upcoming series against the Rays, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter link). Manager Brandon Hyde confirmed that Hall was being promoted but suggested the team has yet to decide when he’ll first pitch (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun).

It’s been a half-decade since Hall entered the organization as the 21st overall pick in the 2017 draft. A Georgia high school product, he received a $3MM signing bonus on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and a curveball that most evaluators considered at least a plus offering. Hall also showed a promising changeup but had some questions about the consistency of strike-throwing ability.

That report — monster raw stuff paired with spotty control — has become perhaps even more extreme during his time in the professional ranks. Baseball America wrote over the offseason that Hall now touches 100 MPH and averages around 97 MPH on his heater. That’s atypical velocity for any starter but particularly rare for a left-hander. Among MLB starters with 30+ innings on the season, Jesus Luzardo and Shane McClanahan are the only southpaws averaging north of 96 MPH (although Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell and Aaron Ashby are all between 95.5 MPH and 96 MPH).

BA credits Hall with two distinct breaking pitches — a mid-80s slider and a somewhat softer curveball — and grades both as at least above-average offerings. The outlet also credits him with the solid changeup he’s long had in his arsenal, giving him one of the better repertoires for any young pitcher. Hall has appeared among BA’s top 60 overall prospects entering each of the past four years, and he earned the #59 ranking on the publication’s latest update from last week.

That elite arsenal has unsurprisingly translated into plenty of whiffs at the minor league level. Hall has fanned more than a third of opponents at every stop since hitting High-A in 2019. That includes a massive 36% strikeout rate through 18 starts with Triple-A Norfolk this season. Among International League pitchers with 50+ frames, only teammate Grayson Rodriguez (who’s widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in the sport) has punched out batters at a better clip.

Unlike Rodriguez, however, Hall has still yet to consistently harness his arsenal. He’s walked upwards of 10% of batters faced at each level and has doled out free passes to 13.9% of opponents in Norfolk. No qualified big league starter has a walk rate anywhere near that high, and it’s the third-highest mark among that group of International League hurlers with 50 or more innings. The free passes, paired with an elevated .340 batting average on balls in play against him, have contributed to a lackluster 4.76 ERA over his first 70 Triple-A innings.

Nevertheless, the Orioles are set to get a look at Hall against big league hitters in what is surprisingly a pivotal series for Baltimore. They’re 58-53 on the year, just half a game behind the Tampa Bay club against which he’s likely to make his debut for the American League’s last Wild Card spot. The next three games are arguably as important as any the franchise has played in over five years. Giving Hall the ball in any of those contests is a strong show of faith in the 23-year-old.

Hall is already on the 40-man roster, having been added last offseason to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft that never wound up happening. He’s in the first of three minor league option years and could certainly bounce between Baltimore and Norfolk over the coming weeks. We’re already well past the date for Hall to get either a full season of service time or enough to have a serious possibility at qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player after 2024. Even if he’s in the big leagues from here on out, he won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign and won’t hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason. That trajectory could be pushed back further by future options to the minor leagues.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Dodgers Claim Rylan Bannon From Orioles

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The Dodgers have claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Orioles, per announcements from both clubs. It had not been publicly reported that Bannon had been designated for assignment, but the O’s evidently tried to pass him through waivers with the Dodgers intercepting them. Los Angeles had a vacancy on its 40-man roster, meaning no corresponding move will be required.

Bannon, 26, will now return to the organization where he began his professional career, as he was drafted by the Dodgers in 2017. He was one of the five players that went to the Orioles in the 2018 deadline deal that sent Manny Machado to Los Angeles.

In 2019, his first full season with the O’s, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .266/.345/.421 for a wRC+ of 120. He also added some versatility to his defensive game, with the primary third baseman also seeing some time at second base. Based on that strong season, he was added to Baltimore’s 40-man roster prior to the 2020 Rule 5 draft.

After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, Bannon had a tepid showing in 2021, slashing .176/.297/.370 in 84 Triple-A games. He’s had a better showing here in 2022, though, hitting .229/.347/.407 for a wRC+ of 105 in 78 Triple-A games. He also made his MLB debut, though he got just 15 plate appearances over a four-game stretch in May.

The Dodgers recently placed Justin Turner on the injured list due to an abdominal strain. That leaves Max Muncy as the primary option at the hot corner, though he’s been battling elbow issues all season. By claiming Bannon, they’ve given themselves a little extra depth at third, bringing in a versatile player that they have a previous relationship with.

Orioles Notes: Santander, Vavra, Odor, Farm System

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The Orioles have been getting right fielder Anthony Santander some practice at first base and could play him on the infield at least occasionally down the stretch, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters this weekend (link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubtako). That shift could be accompanied by other changes in the infield, which began yesterday with Rougned Odor moving to third base in deference to 25-year-old Terrin Vavra, who received his first big league start at second base.

Santander, 27, has never played a Major League game at first base but did get some minor league work there several years ago. He generally rates as an above-average defender in right field, per both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, although his ratings have slipped this season. With several young outfielders rising through the system including MLB-ready Kyle Stowers and fast-rising 2021 top pick Colton Cowser, it’s of extra note that Santander could reacclimate to another spot on the diamond. Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins are generally locked into outfield spots, so shifting Santander around certainly makes some sense.

Of course, even moderately enhancing Santander’s defensive versatility will also potentially make him a bit more appealing on the offseason trade market. The switch-hitting Santander drew some interest this summer, as he’s done for the past couple seasons, but the O’s hung onto him and for now can continue to enjoy his .255/.334/.452 output. Santander is on pace to set new career-highs in plate appearances, home runs and doubles this season, provided he remains healthy down the stretch. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 23.1% last season to 18.6% this season and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to a career-best 8.2%.

Santander is earning $3.15MM this season and remains under club control through the 2024 campaign via arbitration. He’s already been through that process twice as a Super Two player and will be due another pair of raises before hitting the open market just after his 30th birthday in the 2024-25 offseason.

As for the move of Odor to the hot corner, it’s only sensible to get as long a look as Vavra as possible down the stretch in 2022. Second base is Vavra’s primary (and best) position, and after he hit .312/.425/.444 through 229 minor league plate appearances this season (mostly in Triple-A), he appears ready for a look in the big leagues. However, the O’s also have fellow infield prospect Jordan Westburg knocking on the door of the big leagues, if not late in 2022 then likely early in the 2023 season. Westburg, who landed 98th on Baseball America’s latest top 100 rankings, has posted a combined .255/.332/.470 slash between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s seen his walk rate cut in half jumping from Double-A to Triple-A and perhaps has some strikeout issues to sort through (26.1% this year), but given his general proximity to the big leagues, taking a proactive look at Vavra makes sense.

It seems fair to question just how much longer the veteran Odor will factor into the plans at all, given that the longtime Rangers infielder has posted just a .193/.257/.365 batting line in 331 plate appearances this year. The lefty-swinging Odor has actually posted worse results against right-handers than against southpaws and turned in below-average defensive grades at second base (-5 DRS, -2.9 UZR, -5 OAA).

From a broader perspective, veterans of the Odor ilk will have a more difficult time finding opportunity in Baltimore at all before too long. Despite graduating former No. 1 overall prospect Adley Rutschman to the Major League roster, the O’s still have baseball’s best all-round farm system, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel opined in today’s updated rankings of the game’s 30 minor league systems. Some of that is due to another No.  1 overall pick being added to the system this season, but it’s also due largely to the rise of shortstop prospect Gunnar Henderson, whom Baseball America tabs as its new No. 1 overall farmhand in another just-released set of rankings.

Henderson, like Westburg, has split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing at a combined .304/.429/.556 clip with 17 home runs, 20 doubles, six triples, 16 steals (in 19 tries), a huge 16.7% walk rate and a 20.8% strikeout rate. With 205 Triple-A plate appearances already under his belt, it’s at least feasible that he could also be an option late in the season — and, if not, then certainly early in 2023. However things pan out in the short-term, the looming presence of Henderson, Westburg, Vavra and others figures to directly impact Odor, Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo and other infield options before too long.

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