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Latest On Orioles’ Ownership, Lease Situations

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One of yesterday’s top stories was a Bloomberg report that private equity mogul David Rubenstein had been in contact with the Angelos family about purchasing some portion of the Orioles. It comes at a time of ongoing uncertainty about the franchise’s lease at Camden Yards, which runs through December 31.

In late September, the Orioles and the Maryland governor’s office jointly announced a non-binding memorandum of understanding that would, if approved, extend the Camden Yards lease by 30 years. As part of that framework, the O’s would receive a 99-year development rights agreement to build around the stadium with visions of a ballpark village.

That latter aspect has found some pushback in the state legislature. Rubenstein’s reported discussions about the franchise only made the situation more complex. State senator Bill Ferguson released a statement on Friday afternoon expressing opposition to the memorandum.

“Fundamentally, I believe that the long-term lease for the use of the ballpark should not be conditioned on whether or not a private owner receives a 99-year ground lease to develop land owned by Maryland taxpayers. This is more relevant today, as recent news has heightened uncertainties about the future ownership of the team,” Ferguson said (via the Associated Press).

Jeff Barker, Hayes Gardner and Emily Opilo of the Baltimore Sun write that while the governor’s office and the Orioles had reached a tentative 30-year lease agreement, the governor has put that on hold in response to Ferguson’s comments. According to the Sun, the governor’s office had been briefing elected officials about the framework of the lease agreement as recently as this morning. Once Ferguson made his statement in the afternoon, the governor’s office reversed course and halted the deal. Neither the governor nor the Orioles made any public announcement.

Whether Ferguson would have intervened if not for the reported discussions between Rubenstein and the Angelos family isn’t clear. (The Sun notes that Ferguson had expressed opposition to giving the O’s land development rights as far as back as August.) Still, it seems the Bloomberg report played some role in the renewed opposition. Andy Kostka and Pamela Wood of The Baltimore Banner write that Ferguson’s concerns were heightened by the possibility of an ownership change.

To that end, the Angelos family has sought to downplay that possibility. Kostka and Wood report that O’s chairman John Angelos spoke with Maryland governor Wes Moore on Thursday night and reassured him the family had no plans to sell a majority stake in the franchise. The Sun observes that the Angelos family would be subject to notable capital gains taxes if they sell while longtime owner Peter Angelos, 94, remains alive.

The respective reports from The Sun and The Banner contain myriad details about the lease framework that seemed to be in place before the governor’s office’s change of heart. Next steps aren’t entirely clear, but it stands to reason the sides will act quickly to try to modify the agreement to overcome the legislature’s objections before year’s end.

David Rubenstein Reportedly In Talks To Acquire Baltimore Orioles

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Carlyle Group founder David Rubenstein is in talks to acquire the Baltimore Orioles, according to a report from Gillian Tan of Bloomberg. The O’s are currently owned by the Angelos family.

It’s unclear at this point what stage the talks are at or if any kind of deal is close at this time. It also doesn’t seem like Rubenstein is the only person pursuing the club, as the report states that he is “among suitors pursuing a transaction.” Whether the Angelos family has pursued this or have merely been approached by prospective buyers isn’t clear, but there has been plenty of uncertainty in recent years about the future of the franchise.

Peter Angelos, now 94, was the principal investor of a group that purchased the franchise in 1993. After he collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve, larger roles were taken up by his wife Georgia and sons John and Lou. In June of 2022, reports emerged of infighting between the family about control of the club, with MLB approving John as the club’s “control person” in 2020. Multiple lawsuits were filed and the reporting of the legal battle revealed that Georgia had hired Goldman Sachs to look into a possible sale of the club. In February of this year, it was reported that the family members had reached an agreement to drop their lawsuits against each other. “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to,” John said on the matter in February.

Amid all of the drama over the ownership situation, there has also been an ongoing situation regarding Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The club’s lease on the facility runs through 2023. They had an opportunity to extend that for five years but chose in February not to do so. The hope was that they could work out a longer deal that would allow them to take advantage of a new Maryland law and borrow $600MM for stadium upgrades. Both John and Maryland Governor Wes Moore have made public statements expressing optimism about getting a new deal done.

In August it was reported that John was trying to leverage the stadium negotiations into acquiring public land. He reportedly envisioned developing a mixed-use area with commercial and retail spaces, emulating to The Battery and Truist Park where the Braves play in Georgia.

In September, John and Gov. Moore announced a new 30-year lease between the club and the state, though this was actually misleading. Reporting from the next day revealed that they had merely signed a memorandum of understanding, which was legally non-binding. The lease is still set to expire on December 31 and recent reporting has suggested the two sides may have to sign a short-term extension of a year or perhaps even go month-to-month, per Hayes Gardner of The Baltimore Sun, while working out a longer deal.

In addition to all of that, the club has made almost no long-term investments in any players. The O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since March of 2018, with was Alex Cobb’s four-year deal. Since then, the only contracts longer than one year the club has given out have been two-year extensions to John Means and Félix Bautista, both players that were already under club control and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. For much of that time, the club was in rebuilding mode. But even as they have returned to contention in the last two years, including winning the AL East with 101 wins in 2023, they have yet to make any kind of commitment to anything down the road.

Rubenstein, 74, is the co-founder and co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, a private equity company. He was born in Baltimore and Bloomberg estimates his net worth as $4.6 billion, though Forbes comes in below that at $3.6 billion. Forbes also currently values the Orioles franchise at $1.713 billion, about 10 times more than the $173MM price point when it was purchased in 1993.

To this point, it’s unclear if Rubenstein actually has a chance of acquiring the club or if he would approach any of the aforementioned issues differently. But if he were able to seal the deal and change the way the club operates, that would obviously be a franchise-altering development. It could also have ripple effects outside the O’s since they have an ongoing dispute with the Nationals over MASN and rights fees dating back to the Nats moving from Montreal to Washington in 2005. The Lerner family has been trying to sell the Nats in recent years but that MASN dispute has reportedly been a significant obstacle in doing so.

Orioles Interested In Extensions For Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

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Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings yesterday and was asked if the Orioles had reached out about extension talks with his clients Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. “Only once or twice a day,” Boras quipped, with Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner among those who passed his comments along. “Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike [Elias] and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

Boras and his clients have a reputation of generally being averse to extensions, though that’s not to say they never happen. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Boras has negotiated extensions for clients such as Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Lance McCullers Jr. and more.

Both Henderson and Holliday are fairly inexperienced but extensions for players at this stage of their careers are becoming more common. Henderson has 184 games under his belt, but has thrived in those, winning American League Rookie of the Year here in 2023. Holliday has yet to make his major league debut but is the consensus top prospect in the sport.

In recent years, players like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have received notable extensions prior to even making it to the big leagues. Jackson Chourio, who currently falls just behind Holliday on those prospect lists, recently set a new benchmark for players with zero service time. He and the Brewers agreed to an eight-year, $82MM extension with performance bonuses and a pair of club options. There have also been notable deals given to players with a small amount of major league experience, with each of Corbin Carroll, Wander Franco and Julio Rodríguez getting nine-figure guarantees.

For the Orioles, they would have to change strategy to get a deal done with either player. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager in November of 2018, the largest guarantee they have given to anyone is the one-year, $13MM deal they gave to Craig Kimbrel this week. The only extensions they have signed were two-year deals for John Means and Félix Bautista. In both cases, the player was rehabbing Tommy John surgery and was already under club control for the two seasons covered by the contract.

To be fair, the O’s have been aggressively rebuilding for much of the Elias tenure, so big spending wasn’t warranted. But they won 83 games in 2022 and still kept this modest last winter. The current offseason is still ramping up, so maybe there’s a bold move or two to come, but there’s been nothing too out-of-character just yet.

Due to that lack of spending, the club has the financial means to theoretically do anything it wants. The only commitments on the books for 2025 are $1MM owed to Bautista and another $1MM for the buyout on Kimbrel’s option. There’s nothing committed for 2026. Per the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had a payroll as high as $164MM in 2017, which put them in the top 10 league-wide. But much has changed since then.

Owner Peter Angelos collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and his son John Angelos later was named “control person” for the club. Since then, the club has been rebuilding and keeping player costs to a minimum. Beyond that, they haven’t been able to agree to a new lease for their home ballpark, with the current agreement set to expire at the end of this month. It was reported earlier today that David Rubenstein is attempting to purchase the club, though it’s unclear if he has a chance of succeeding or how long that would take.

There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty around the franchise so it’s an open question as to how much latitude Elias even has to commit future dollars to either of these players or any of the other on the roster. The aggressive tanking of a few years ago helped them load up their farm system, which has led to their current club being filled with talented youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and more. Getting one or more of those players to put pen to paper and stay in Baltimore for a long time would be a sensible strategy, but the likelihood of such a deal actually happening isn’t obvious at the moment.

In the short term, Elias will have to think about putting the best possible team on the field for 2024 and recently spoke to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball about that. They are set to have an outfield of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, though there are some different options for a fourth outfielder, with Elias naming Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna as suitors for such a gig.

Kjerstad had a solid showing last year, tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before getting into 13 major league contests. The club probably wants to find him regular playing time somewhere, and he has played some first base before, but Elias shot down the notion of him moving there on a regular basis. “I don’t have designs on him becoming a full-time first baseman,” he said. “I think it’s something more that we’re trying to get it to a point where it’s in his back pocket and we can tap into it a couple of days a week.” The club has Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn as options for first base and designated hitter, so it’s not even a guarantee that there’s a cleaner path to playing time for Kjerstad there.

Despite all the crowding, the O’s have some openness to bringing in another outfielder, though it seems the odds of that happening are low. “I still see a ton of playing time and a lot of at-bats outside of our three primary outfielders,” Elias said. “Right now, this is up for grabs. These guys, I don’t think any of them have really proven it yet over a long period of time in the majors, so we’re cognizant of that. If we can find external insurance or external help in this department, it’s not going to close the doors for those guys, and it wouldn’t be unwelcome from our end, either. Competition is good. Depth is good. These seasons are so unpredictable. Odds are you’ll get some injuries, so we have to prepare for all that. We’ll talk to free agents that might be a fit for joining our outfield mix, but we have high hopes for the names that I mentioned.”

Orioles Sign Craig Kimbrel

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December 7: Kimbrel can increase the value of the buyout based on game and games finished in 2024, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It will be an extra $100K for pitching in 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 games, as well as another $100K for finishing the same amounts. If Kimbrel were to max out all of those, the buyout would jump to $2MM.

December 6: The Orioles announced the signing of closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. It’s a reported $13M guarantee for the SportsMeter client. Kimbrel will make $12MM in 2024 with a $1MM buyout on a $13MM option for ’25.

Baltimore has been looking to fortify the back of their bullpen this winter, with Félix Bautista set to miss the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. In that search, they have been connected in rumors to just about every notable reliever, including Josh Hader, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks, though those guys are set for multi-year deals.

Details of this deal between the O’s and Kimbrel aren’t known but it’s possible it’s a one-year deal, since he settled for a one-year pact last offseason and is now going into his age-36 campaign. In that case, Kimbrel could act as a bridge, covering the closing role in Baltimore for one season and then relinquishing it to Bautista for 2025.

Kimbrel has a lengthy track record of having been one of the most dominant relievers in the game, having racked up 417 saves since debuting with Atlanta back in 2010. Recent years have been a bit more rocky but he’s coming off a generally solid season.

Over 2019 and 2020 with the Cubs, Kimbrel had an earned run average of 6.00 in 36 innings, a noticeable slide since his previous nine seasons only once resulted in an ERA over 2.74. He got back on track in 2021 with an ERA of 2.26 between the Cubs and White Sox, though he was far better before being traded than after. His ERA was a ridiculous 0.49 before the deal but 5.09 after. He was traded to the Dodgers for the 2022 season and posted a respectable 3.75 ERA, but he was shaky enough that year to get removed from the closer’s role in September and then left off that club’s playoff roster.

Kimbrel signed with the Phillies for 2023, a one-year deal with a $10MM guarantee. He tossed 69 innings for the Phils over 71 appearances this year, finishing with a 3.26 ERA, 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He earned 23 saves and seven holds in the process. He didn’t fare so well in the postseason, allowing four earned runs in six innings, but that’s a tiny sample of work relative to the season overall.

That won’t quite live up to Bautista’s recent performance, but there are few pitchers in the world who could. His first two seasons in the big leagues resulted in a 1.85 ERA and 40.4% strikeout rate. Only Edwin Díaz, who missed 2023 due to knee surgery, had a higher strikeout percentage in that time. But Kimbrel will nonetheless strengthen the bullpen relative to where it was a few days ago, joining other high-leverage relievers such as Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe.

Assuming Kimbrel is in the closer’s role, he will have a chance to continue climbing the all-time saves leaderboard. Kenley Jansen currently sits seventh on that list with 420 while Kimbrel is eighth with 417. Both of those closers will have a chance to jump three more spots in 2024. Billy Wagner is currently sixth with 422, John Franco is fifth with 424 and Francisco Rodríguez is fourth with 437. That means each of Jansen and Kimbrel could be in the top five by the end of next year.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the O’s and Kimbrel were in serious discussions. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the sides were nearing and then in agreement on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the financial terms.

Orioles “Seriously Engaged” On Craig Kimbrel

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The Orioles are “seriously engaged” on free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link). Baltimore has been involved on a number of late-game bullpen arms as they look to compensate for the loss of Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery.

Kimbrel wouldn’t be as notable a pickup as Josh Hader or Jordan Hicks, in whom Baltimore reportedly also expressed interest. Kimbrel would be a far more affordable acquisition, though. That’s more a reflection of his age (36 in May) than performance, as the nine-time All-Star turned in a generally solid showing for the Phillies.

After inking a $10MM free agent contract with Philadelphia last winter, Kimbrel operated in his customary closing role. He picked up 23 saves with seven more holds while blowing only five leads in the regular season. The right-hander worked to a 3.26 ERA through 69 innings, striking out a little over a third of opponents in the process. Kimbrel’s fastball sat in the customary 96 MPH range, while he picked up a whiff on nearly 14% of his offerings.

It was a good season overall, even if it ended on a less resounding note. Kimbrel allowed four runs with five strikeouts and walks apiece over six innings in the postseason. It was the second consecutive season that didn’t end as he’d hoped; Kimbrel had been left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster in 2022. Yet his overall body of work over the past three years — a 3.10 ERA with a 34.4% strikeout percentage across 188 2/3 innings — is quite strong.

With the possible exception of Hader, no pitcher could reasonably be expected to rival what the O’s would’ve anticipated from a healthy Bautista. Kimbrel remains an above-average reliever, though, one who clearly has no qualms handling the ninth inning. If the O’s plugged him in as closer for a season, they’d be able to keep Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe in a setup capacity.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Holliday, Yankees

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The Red Sox have been focused on pitching help first and foremost this offseason, yet that isn’t the team’s only target area.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that the Sox are looking at second basemen on both the trade and free agent markets, though a new infielder is likeliest to come via trade.  Breslow implied that the Red Sox would first like to address their pitching needs, so it may be some time yet before a second-base answer comes into focus.

A whopping 11 players saw at least a little time at second base for the 2023 Red Sox, but this revolving door combined for 0.0 bWAR, as only three teams got less production from their second basemen.  Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec, or (when he isn’t in center field) Ceddanne Rafaela all look like the top internal candidates for the keystone heading into the offseason, but Boston would clearly like to better solidify the position.  With a somewhat thin free agent class of midfielders available, it isn’t surprising that Breslow would prefer to bring in a higher-caliber upgrade in trade talks.

More from around the AL East…

  • Former first overall pick Jackson Holliday has been nothing but impressive over his two pro seasons, to the point that Orioles GM Mike Elias said it is “a very strong possibility” that Holliday could be on Baltimore’s Opening Day roster.  “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had an historic first full season in the minors….He’s going to be treated in this major league camp not like a prospect where we’re kind of having fun and having him in camp for the experience of it, but like a guy trying to make the team,” Elias told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and other reporters.  Holliday has played mostly shortstop with some second-base time in the minors, and Elias said the 20-year-old will continue at those two positions in Spring Training.  Often seen as the Orioles’ shortstop of the future, Holliday’s exact position isn’t yet known due to the sheer glut of talent Baltimore has in the pipeline and on the MLB roster, particularly in the infield.  To this end, Elias isn’t concerned about finding playing time for everyone or keeping Holliday at a set position, since defensive versatility is “part of baseball now and it provides a lot of value.  There’s very, very, very, few players that just stand in the same spot and nowhere else.”
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone gave reporters (including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty) updates on the offseason progress of some players plagued by injuries in 2023.  Nestor Cortes was limited to 63 1/3 innings due to two rotator cuff strains, but Boone said the southpaw has now started a throwing program.  Anthony Rizzo is expected to have a normal offseason program after being cleared of post-concussion syndrome, hopefully concluding a bizarre sequence of events that saw Rizzo keep playing for more than two months after suffering an apparent concussion in late May.  Rizzo was placed on the IL in early August and then shut down for the season at the start of September, though Boone said that the first baseman was “probably game-ready and ready to go” by the end of the season.  Jose Trevino’s season was ended by wrist surgery in July but the catcher is expected to be set for the start of Spring Training.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

Orioles Interested In Robert Stephenson

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With the Orioles already exploring the high-end reliever market, Robert Stephenson is another name drawing interest from Baltimore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).

The O’s saw plenty of Stephenson when he pitched for the Rays last season, a 38 1/3-inning stint that set a new ceiling on the former first-rounder’s potential.  While Stephenson had posted good results over full seasons (with the Reds in 2019 and with the Rockies in 2021) and for the last month of the 2022 season after the Pirates claimed him away from Colorado, the right-hander had simply been too inconsistent to be a truly reliable bullpen arm.  Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings with Pittsburgh last season before the Rays acquired him in a June trade, and that’s when the turnaround happened.

Stephenson proceeded to post a 2.35 ERA, 42.9% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his 38 1/3 frames for Tampa, suddenly breaking out as one of the best relievers in baseball.  A tiny .194 BABIP undoubtedly contributed to that success, yet the rest of Stephenson’s metrics were so impressive that batted-ball luck alone couldn’t account for his success.  Replacing his slider with a cutter as his secondary pitch worked wonders for Stephenson, as his cutter became one of the more overpowering pitches in all of baseball.

While 38 1/3 innings isn’t a huge sample size by any stretch, Stephenson’s run in Tampa Bay was so dominant that it has made him one of the most sought-after names on the relief market as he enters his age-31 season.  Morosi previously reported that the Cubs, Angels, and Dodgers all had interest in the righty’s services, and the Orioles now become the fourth team linked to the Stephenson market.

MLBTR ranked Stephenson 27th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a four-year, $36MM contract.  Darragh McDonald also picked the Orioles as Stephenson’s landing spot, despite the fact that the O’s have yet to sign any player to even a multi-year contract during Mike Elias’ tenure as general manager.  While nobody expects the Orioles to suddenly go wild with spending this winter, the team’s 101-win 2023 season shows that Baltimore is firmly capable of contending for a championship, and some level of payroll increase is likely necessary to add what might be only a couple of final pieces to the team’s impressive talent core.

The Orioles have showed signs that they’re at least considering some higher-level expenditures.  Baltimore reportedly checked in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and their ventures into the relief market have included links to Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.

Stephenson perhaps joins Hicks as something of a middle ground between the nine-figure, multi-year deal it will likely take to land Hader and the one-year deals Kimbrel or Chapman are likely to sign.  Signing Stephenson, Hicks, or Hader would give the O’s a longer-term relief arm even after Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and putting any of those relievers with Bautista and Yennier Cano in 2025 and beyond makes for a very promising bullpen situation.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

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At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

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