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Red Sox Injury Notes: Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Rotation, Abreu

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When the Red Sox opened camp last week, Kutter Crawford stood out as an immediate injury concern due to a lingering knee problem that first arose last April.  The situation hasn’t much improved, as manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links) and other reporters that Crawford’s right patellar tendon is still giving him discomfort following a long-toss session on Thursday and a bullpen session yesterday.

“Opening Day, right now, is an ’if.’  Let’s see what happens,” Cora said.  “[Crawford is] not feeling well.  He’s behind. We’ve got to make sure the knee is good so the shoulder doesn’t suffer.”

Unfortunately for the Sox, Crawford isn’t the only pitcher facing uncertainty early in camp, as Brayan Bello has been dealing with shoulder soreness since the start of spring camp.  Cora said Bello will undergo a strength test tomorrow, as the Red Sox continue to evaluate the right-hander’s status.  To date, Bello has been throwing, but the team has been taking it relatively slowly with this progression, and Cora said Bello hasn’t thrown any bullpens.  Between the two starters, Crawford seems to be more of a question mark than Bello, as Cora said that “with Kutter, that’s the one it looks like is going to be long.”

With over a month before Opening Day, there is plenty of time for either pitcher to still get healthy for the season in general, even if the Red Sox could be cautious in placing Crawford and/or Bello on the 15-day injured list just to provide more ramp-up time.  In theory, Boston has a good deal of pitching depth on hand in the form of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer, so any of these arms could fill in for Crawford, Bello, or Lucas Giolito, who is still working through his rehab from an internal brace surgery from last March.

Only five proper starters will be needed in the early going, as Cora confirmed that Boston will be using a five-man rotation.  Reports in January indicated that the Sox were at least thinking about a six-man staff in order to best utilize and manage its starting depth, but Cora said “we haven’t talked about a six-man.  You guys have talked about it.  If we go that route, it’s for a reason.  For right now, we’re taking the best five and using the bullpen.”

This lines the staff up as Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Giolito if healthy enough for Opening Day, and then potentially one of the depth starters if Bello and Crawford indeed aren’t available.  Plans could certainly change given Boston’s busy early schedule, as both Cotillo and Cora noted that the team plays on 19 of the regular season’s first 20 days.

The injury bug is also impacting Boston’s position players, as Wilyer Abreu has yet to start workouts due to a gastrointestinal virus.  A team spokesperson told Cotillo and other reporters that Abreu received “some abnormal labs” on his illness, but the “labs have been getting better, and he’s feeling better, but they’re waiting for those to get back to a normal range before baseball activity.”

More testing is coming on Monday, Cora said, and Abreu will sit through the weekend.  A timeline isn’t in place for how much time Abreu could still miss, or whether or not this absence could cost him any time on the injured list at the start of the season.  Abreu is slated for another heavy role in Boston’s outfield this season, as the Gold Glover looks to build on a very successful rookie year.

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Details On Nolan Arenado Trade Talks

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For much of the offseason, a Nolan Arenado trade seemed inevitable. But spring training is now rolling along and he’s still a Cardinal. Today, Katie Woo of The Athletic takes an extensive look at the twists and turns of the winter. Many of the details came out over the past few months but the piece also provides some new tidbits and extra context.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

Red Sox, Matt Moore Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Matt Moore, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. He’ll presumably head to big league camp for the remainder of spring training.

Moore, 36, has spent the bulk of the past two seasons with the Angels. He made a couple of quick pit stops in Cleveland and Miami following the Angels’ Aug. 2023 mass waiver purge, but more than 90% of his appearances since 2023 have come in a Halos uniform.

Once ranked among the game’s top three prospects alongside Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, Moore had a nice start to his career but never got fully back on track following 2014 Tommy John surgery. He got back up 198 innings of 4.08 ERA ball in 2016 but wasn’t the borderline ace-caliber pitcher he looked to be when first breaking into the majors.

Moore struggled with the Giants and Rangers in 2017-18 and then missed nearly all of the 2019 season with the Tigers after suffering a knee injury in just his second start of the season. A nice 2020 run in Japan led to a 2021 deal with the Phillies, but Moore again struggled as a starter and was moved to a swing role.

Returning to the Rangers on a minor league deal in 2022, Moore found new life and a second act in his career upon a full-time shift to short relief. He pitched 74 innings of 1.95 ERA ball that season, parlaying that rebound effort into successive one-year deals in Anaheim.

The first of those two seasons was better than the second. Moore’s 2024 results (5.03 ERA in 48 1/3 innings) are skewed by a pair of disastrous outings; he combined to yield nine runs (one-third of his season-long total) in just one inning of work during those two appearances. Moore also saw a dip in average fastball velocity in 2024, falling from 94 mph to 92.7 mph. That lost velocity and his late struggles with command could be attributable to the forearm strain that ended his season in August, however.

Generally speaking, Moore has been a quality arm for the bulk of the past three seasons. During that time, he’s tossed 175 innings of 2.98 ERA ball and fanned one quarter of his opponents while issuing walks at a 10.8% clip. Moore has worked primarily in high-leverage settings, coming away with 46 holds and six saves. He’s been placed in position to pick up a hold or save 57 times over the past three seasons and succeeded doing so in 52 of those opportunities.

As it stands, the Red Sox project to have two lefties in Alex Cora’s bullpen: Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. Both signed guaranteed one-year deals in free agency earlier this winter. Lefties Zach Penrod and Brennan Bernardino are both on the 40-man roster as well, but there’s an injury scare with regard to the former at the moment. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reports that Penrod has been dealing with elbow soreness and is headed for an MRI. There’s some concern, and Cora suggested when talking about Penrod’s outlook that the team was looking at bringing another lefty into the mix. That’ll be Moore.

Moore joins a list of experienced non-roster relievers trying to win a spot in the ’pen. He’s the second notable name to sign such a pact this week. The Sox inked righty Adam Ottavino on Tuesday. Righties Michael Fulmer, Austin Adams, Isaiah Campbell and Wyatt Mills are all non-roster invitees in camp with Boston, as are lefties Sean Newcomb and Jovani Moran.

By definition, Moore is an Article XX(b) free agent — which is to say he has six-plus years of major league service time and finished out the prior season on a major league roster or 60-day injured list. Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, Article XX(b) free agents who sign minor league deals are granted uniform opt-out dates. Those opt-out opportunities will come five days before Opening Day (March 22, in this case) and then on May 1 and June 1. Moore will have the ability to elect free agency on each of those dates if he has not been added to the Red Sox’ 40-man roster.

MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Details On Negotiations Between Tigers, Alex Bregman

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Though Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, the Tigers were one of the finalists. It was reported last week that Detroit had an offer of six years and $171.5MM on the table with an opt-out after year two, though there were some deferrals involved. This week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press provides some more details and context for the talks between the Tigers and Bregman’s agent Scott Boras.

As for that previously-reported offer from Detroit, Petzold reports that $40MM of it would have been deferred. That’s a sizable amount but notably less than the deal Bregman accepted with the Red Sox. Though the sticker price on the Boston deal is $120MM over three years, $40MM average annual value, there are $20MM in annual deferrals for a $60MM total.

Bregman didn’t accept that offer from the Tigers but seemed perfectly open to joining the club, as his camp made a few counter offers. One of them was for $200MM over seven years, which would have been a $28.6MM AAV. The other was $186MM over six years, $31MM AAV, with an opt-out after 2025. Neither of those offers from Bregman/Boras to the Tigers included deferred money.

Those asks align with previous reporting on what Bregman was looking for in free agency. In the earlier parts of the offseason, he and the Astros seemed to be having a bit of a staring contest. Houston offered $156MM over six years, $26MM AAV, but Bregman reportedly wanted to get closer to $200MM and didn’t like the idea of taking a pay cut in terms of AAV. As part of Bregman’s previous extension with Houston, he made $28.5MM salaries in each of the final two years of the deal. The Astros walked away, which led clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers and Cubs emerging as frontrunners for his services.

His two counter offers to Detroit would have put him a bit above that Houston AAV but it seems the Tigers weren’t quite willing to go there. The previously-reported six-year, $171.5MM offer from Detroit would have led to an AAV of $28.6MM in terms of the sticker price, but the deferrals would have knocked that down. The degree to which the AAV would have dropped would have depended on how far into the future that money was deferred, but it surely would have been below the $28.5MM AAV that Bregman seemed determined to top, or at least match.

When pivoting to a short-term deal, a player usually sacrifices a bit of overall guarantee for greater earning power in the short term. There were reports in the offseason that Bregman was resisting such a pivot, presumably because he had these decent six-year offers from Houston and Detroit. However, since they didn’t quite live up to his expectations, he eventually did turn to a shorter pact. The $40MM AAV he got from the Red Sox is apparently going to be calculated as $31.7MM for competitive balance tax purposes when factoring in the deferrals, but that still allows Bregman to get an AAV bump compared to his last deal.

Whether that will prove to be a wise pivot remains to be seen. Last offseason, several players pivoted to short-term pacts that fell below initial market expectations. Most prominently, the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman took this path. That has already paid off for Chapman and Snell, who each eventually landed the mega deals they were seeking. Chapman initially got $54MM over three years from the Giants but then signed a six-year $151MM extension late in the 2024 season. Snell got $62MM over two years from San Francisco, opted out and then got $182MM over five years from the Dodgers.

For Bellinger and Montgomery, the jury is still out. Bellinger got $80MM over three years from the Cubs, had a good-not-great season and decided not to opt out. He has since been traded to the Yankees and has another opt-out chance after this season. Montgomery got just one-year and $25MM guaranteed but with a vesting option. He vested the $20MM player option and bumped the value to $22.5MM by making at least 18 starts, but decided not to return to free agency after posting a 6.23 earned run average. Montgomery left Boras and later accused the agent of having “butchered” his free agency.

Like those players, Bregman has opt-outs after each year of his deal. He clearly had an idea of where he considered his value to be and went out looking for it this winter. He didn’t fully get everything he was looking for, leaving some long-term money on the table to get the AAV he wanted in the short term. He will have the ability to try again in the future, perhaps as soon as eight-ish months from now.

For the Tigers, though they didn’t get a deal done, it does showcase a greater willingness to spend than they have otherwise. Since Scott Harris has taken over as president of baseball operations, they have avoided long-term commitments. No free agent has signed a deal longer than two years. The club did agree to a six-year extension with Colt Keith, but that only committed the club to his pre-existing window of control. The three club options could keep him around beyond that period but the club will also have the ability to walk away.

The Bregman negotiations show that there are no hard lines against making longer deals and that the club would consider making such an investment if the stars aligned. Perhaps the Tigers could circle back to Bregman next winter if he opts out, though their interest will naturally depend on how things play out in Detroit this year. Young infielders like Keith, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Torkelson should all be vying for playing time and their performances could determine how forcefully the Tigers look to make a big infield addition next winter.

Adam Ottavino, Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deal

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Adam Ottavino and the Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract, as first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Unsurprisingly, the deal comes with an invitation to big league spring training. Indeed, according to Nick O’Malley and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the veteran reliever has already reported to camp. He will earn a $2MM salary in 2025 if he makes the MLB roster. Conversely, if Ottavino fails to make the 40-man roster out of camp, he will have the freedom to opt out of his contract and return to free agency (per O’Malley and Cotillo). This is Ottavino’s second stint in the Red Sox organization.

Ottavino, 39, made his MLB debut as a starter for the Cardinals in 2010. However, the Rockies converted him to a relief role after claiming him on waivers in 2012, and the right-hander has been one of the most prolific relievers in the game ever since. Over the past 13 seasons with the Rockies (2012-18), Yankees (2019-20), Red Sox (2021), and Mets (2022-24), Ottavino has pitched 720 2/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA. In that time, he ranks fifth among all relievers in appearances and third in innings pitched. He has remained durable into his late thirties, making at least 60 appearances in each of the past four years. Even more impressive, he has not been on the injured list since 2018.

With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why an MLB team would still be interested in Ottavino, despite his advanced age. His 4.34 ERA this past season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he is only one year removed from a 3.21 ERA season in 2023 and only two years removed from producing an incredible 2.06 ERA in 2022. Moreover, his underlying numbers in 2024 suggest he can still be a back-end bullpen weapon. He pitched to a 3.19 xERA and 3.27 SIERA thanks to a deep arsenal of pitches that helped him thrive as both a strikeout arm and a weak contact artist; his strikeout rate and hard-hit rate both ranked above the 80th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

On the flip side, it’s worth pointing out that Ottavino struggled with his control down the stretch last season. While his 3.86 ERA in August and September was actually lower than his 4.54 ERA over the first four months of the season, his walk rate shot up from 7.6% to 13.5% over the final two months of the year. Even worse, his strikeout rate dropped from 29.8% from April to July to 25.7% in August and September. That could explain why the Mets did not use him at all in the NL Wild Card Series or the NLDS, and why they left him off of their NLCS roster entirely. It might also explain why the veteran was forced to sign a non-guaranteed contract this winter.

Still, with a strong spring, Ottavino has a good chance to earn a job in Boston’s bullpen. Aside from free agent signing Aroldis Chapman and 2024 breakout arm Justin Slaten, the Red Sox have plenty of uncertainty in their arm barn. Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock are coming off of major injuries, while buy-low free agent signing Justin Wilson has not been an effective bullpen arm for several years (5.34 ERA from 2021-24). Meanwhile, names like Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, and Luis Guerrero are hardly locks to make the Opening Day roster. After signing Wilson and Chapman, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that upgrading the bullpen remained a priority. If Ottavino continues to pitch the way he has for most of his career, he should certainly qualify as an upgrade for Boston’s ’pen.

Kennedy: Red Sox Expect To Pay CBT In 2025

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Red Sox president Sam Kennedy spoke to members of the media today, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He confirmed that the club is over the line when it comes to the competitive balance tax and expects to stay there, with room to possibly make additions.

Public estimates of the club’s CBT number have them right around the line, which will be $241MM this year. RosterResource has them at $241.6MM while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them at $240.4MM. Those calculations are unofficial and it seems that Boston’s internal calculations have them over the line.

A club’s final CBT calculation isn’t made until the end of the year. That means there’s some wiggle room to make adjustments now or midseason. For example, the Blue Jays were projected to pay the tax in 2024 but fell out of contention and sold off various players prior to the deadline, which allowed them to narrowly limbo under the line.

For the Sox, they could consider something like that, as clubs often do when they are right around the border. For instance, Masataka Yoshida has been in plenty of trade rumors and has an $18MM CBT hit on his deal. The Sox wouldn’t find any club to take on the whole thing but could perhaps unload part of it if they wanted to avoid the tax. In the past five years, the Sox have only paid the tax once, going narrowly over the line in 2022.

However, it doesn’t seem as though the club is particularly worried about the tax this year. Kennedy said back in November that the club was hoping to be aggressive this winter, building a club that was capable of winning 90 to 95 games, even if that involved paying the tax. For much of the winter, they didn’t make a huge free agent splash but finally did so last week by signing Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120MM pact. The deferrals in that deal reportedly knock it down closer to $90MM in terms of present-day value, but that lower figure still reportedly added $31.7MM to the club’s CBT calculation for the year.

As the season progresses, it’s always possible that the club pivots at the deadline. As mentioned, that’s how things went for the Jays last year. But that’s clearly not how the Sox plan on things going this year. Assuming the club stays in contention through the end of July, they will be looking to make additions without worrying about ducking under the tax line. Those additions could come in the next few weeks, with several free agents still available, though the club could also keep some powder dry for deadline additions to address midseason injuries and/or underperformance.

Since the club hasn’t paid the tax in the past two years, they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. As such, they would have a 20% base tax rate for whatever they spend over the line. There’s also a 12% surcharge for going $20MM over and further surcharges if they eventually go $40MM or $60MM over the base.

It’s surely a refreshing uptick for Boston fans. Up until a few years ago, the Sox had spent many years as one of the top spenders in the league. They had a top five payroll in all but one year of the 2000-2020 period, winning four titles in that time. They dropped back to the middle of the pack more recently, with Cot’s having them 12th in the league in the past two seasons. They finished last in the American League East in 2022 and 2023, before finishing at .500 last year.

They haven’t climbed all the way back to their previous level, with RosterResource ranking their projected 2025 payroll as ninth in the majors. However, they’re only $11MM away from sixth place and it seems like there’s a good chance those standings will shift in the coming months.

Poll: What Position Will Alex Bregman Play In Boston?

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Over the weekend, the Red Sox formally introduced Alex Bregman as their latest star infield signing after signing him to a three-year deal last week. One notable wrinkle that emerged from Bregman’s introduction is where exactly his future on the infield dirt lies. While previous indications were that Bregman would play second base for the Red Sox if added to the roster, manager Alex Cora made clear that the club has not made a decision on how exactly its infield alignment will shake out when Opening Day arrives next month.

The uncertainty around Bregman’s future position stems primarily from the desire of incumbent third base star Rafael Devers to continue playing the field for the foreseeable future. Devers, still just 28, moving to DH this early into his career would be unusual for even a defensively-limited star player. Miguel Cabrera was still the Tigers’ starting third baseman during his age-30 season back in 2013. Aside from Devers’ personal desire to continue playing third, a move to DH for Devers would seemingly leave little room for Masataka Yoshida in the club’s plans, restricting him either to mostly bench duties, forcing him into the outfield on a regular basis, or pushing him off the roster entirely. From an offensive perspective, Yoshida is likely to be far more valuable to pencil into the lineup card than the relatively uninspiring second base options like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton that the Red Sox used last year.

With that being said, Bregman is the reigning AL Gold Glove award winner at the hot corner and has just 32 innings of experience at the keystone to this point in his career. Hardware isn’t always the best metric to evaluate a player’s defense by, but the difference between Bregman and Devers is stark when looking at advanced metrics: Bregman sat in the 91st percentile among fielders for his work at third base last year in terms of Outs Above Average, while Devers was in the 8th percentile. Bregman made clear throughout his free agency that he was ready and willing to play second base if it was asked of him, and Red Sox brass have indicated confidence in his ability to play the position. Even so, it’s impossible to deny that the best version of the Red Sox defensively would surely involve Bregman at third base, Devers at DH, and a steady glove like Hamilton (who posted a +3 OAA at the keystone last year) at second.

It can be argued, then, that the decision boils down to a question of offense versus defense. Playing Bregman at second base allows the club to keep Yoshida in the lineup to open the season more easily, though that will cost the club by forcing an less than ideal defensive alignment. Meanwhile, inserting Hamilton and his 92 wRC+ from last season as the Opening Day second baseman and shifting Yoshida to the bench would leave the club with an undeniably weaker offense but would give the club a quality defensive unit with Bregman and Hamilton flanking Trevor Story on the infield dirt. Using this logic, a Boston club that ranked 11th in the majors with a 104 wRC+ last year even before bringing in Bregman but ranked sixth from the bottom in both OAA and Fangraphs’ defense metric might be better off prioritizing run prevention over run creation.

Other factors are at play as well, however. It’s hard to say from an external perspective exactly how the relationship between Devers and the Red Sox would be impacted by the club supplanting him at third base, but all indications are that the club’s incumbent star is adamant about his desire to remain at the hot corner. It’s also fair to note that Yoshida is expected to be available to play the outfield more frequently this year after he underwent shoulder surgery back in October. Once his shoulder has recovered enough for him to play on the grass, the club could theoretically start Jarren Duran in center field and Yoshida in left before benching Yoshida late in games to shift Duran to left field and put glove-first utility man Ceddanne Rafaela in center field for a stronger defensive outfield when the club holds a lead.

Perhaps the biggest variable in this situation, however, is Kristian Campbell. MLB.com’s #7 prospect in the sport had a clear pathway to everyday playing time as soon as Opening Day before Bregman was signed, but reporting since the Bregman deal has indicated that the Red Sox still want to give Campbell the opportunity to earn a spot on the everyday roster. Campbell has primarily played second base to this point in the minors and his presence on the club’s roster, in the event that he makes the team, could spur the Red Sox to pull the trigger on moving Devers to DH.

With that said, Campbell is a versatile defender who has outfield experience as well, making it at least plausible that the club could plug him into the lineup in left field with Duran in center and Rafaela either on the bench or at Triple-A should they wish to play Bregman at second and Devers at third. That would only be a temporary solution, however, as top prospect Roman Anthony is also knocking on the door of the majors and seems likely to be debut at some point in the first half. Anthony is a well-regarded defensive outfielder and figures to take over regular reps at one of the club’s outfield spots upon his debut, which would seemingly push Campbell back to the infield unless the club was willing to bench Wilyer Abreu in right field.

With so many complicated factors at play for the Red Sox this spring, where do MLBTR readers land on the issue? Should the club prioritize its defense and move Devers to DH, opening up the hot corner for Bregman and making it easier to fit their prospects into the lineup? Or would they be better off putting Bregman at second base, avoiding the risk of discontent from Devers and allowing Yoshida to remain a fixture of the club’s lineup more easily? Have your say in the poll below:

Red Sox Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor league contract. The Wasserman client will join their big league camp for the remainder of spring training.

Thompson has appeared in parts of seven major league seasons and, in 1058 plate appearances, has batted .212/.300/.411. The former second-round pick and brother of NBA star Klay Thompson has suited up for the White Sox, Dodgers, A’s, Cubs and Padres over the years. He split the 2024 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Cubs and Mets, hitting a combined .233/.315/.471 (98 wRC+) in 432 trips to the plate.

The 33-year-old Thompson (34 next month) comes to the Red Sox with at least 600 big league innings in all three outfield spots. His once-plus speed has dipped closer to average, but he gives them a potential right-handed bat to pair with a left-leaning outfield that includes Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida (though Yoshida will primarily serve as a designated hitter). Thompson, however, has reverse splits in his career and has generally handled right-handed opponents better than he’s handled lefties. That trend held up in Triple-A last season, when he hit .237/.314/.495 against fellow righties but only .218/.317/.391 versus lefties.

Boston’s outfield mix already includes defensive standout Ceddanne Rafaela and backup Rob Refsnyder, both of whom bat from the right side. Top prospects Roman Anthony (left-handed) and Kristian Campbell (right-handed) could force their way into the mix, too — as could prospect Jhostynxon Garcia who, unlike Anthony and Campbell, is already on the 40-man roster. Garcia bats from the right side of the dish as well.

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