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Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

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Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season

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5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.

Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.

The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.

4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.

We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.

Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

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The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt.  Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.

Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth.  The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.

Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention.  Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season.  The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.

The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division.  Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.

It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis.  In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs.  Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list?  Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt?  Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?

Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October?  (Poll link for app users)

Could The BoSox Go Young At First Base In 2020?

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  • Could the Red Sox go with a youth movement at first base next season?  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if this could be the case, as since Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will both be free agents, the Sox could turn to either Michael Chavis or top prospect Bobby Dalbec.  Abraham notes that while Chavis has played a lot of second base this season, the keystone is “probably not a long-term position for him,” and thus Chavis could be used at first base, in the outfield, all over the diamond as a super-utility player, or potentially even as an offseason trade chip to add pitching.  A fourth-rounder for Boston in the 2016 draft, Dalbec (ranked 92nd on Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects) has steadily climbed through the farm system and is now hitting well over his first two weeks at Triple-A.  Dalbec was originally drafted as a third baseman, but has increasingly seen more time at first base thanks to Rafael Devers establishing himself at the hot corner for the Sox.  While Devers and Xander Bogaerts have the left side of Boston’s infield locked down for the foreseeable future, the right side is much more in flux, between Moreland and Pearce possibly leaving and the continued uncertainty about whether Dustin Pedroia will ever be able to play again.  The Red Sox are likely to explore the market for first base and second base options this offseason, and Chavis will certainly be in the conversation at either position, Dalbec could also be an important piece of the team’s puzzle for 2020.

Red Sox Place Chris Sale On 10-Day IL With Elbow Inflammation

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6:37 pm: Ryan Brasier has been called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to fill Sale’s spot on the active roster, according to a report from the Boston Herald’s Steve Hewitt (link).

4:52 pm: It appears the issue may indeed be more serious than initially believed. Per President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski (h/t to Bill Koch of the Providence Journal) the injury is “brand new” and the team will seek a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. No timetable has been set for Sale’s return.

4:34 pm: The Red Sox have placed lefty Chris Sale on the 10-Day IL with left elbow inflammation, the team reports.

The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.

In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games behind Tampa in the team’s quest for a second wild card spot, so perhaps it’d be prudent to give the seven-time all-star all the rest he needs.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello

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Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Nathan Eovaldi

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WEDNESDAY: Not so fast. Eovaldi came out of Boston’s bullpen Tuesday. Having only thrown six pitches, he will be available today, but will not get the start, Cora told reporters including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Brian Johnson will instead take the ball to open today’s contest. Where things go from this point remains to be seen.

TUESDAY: After a short run as a reliever, the Red Sox are returning right-hander Nathan Eovaldi to a starting role. Eovaldi will start Wednesday and then spend the rest of the season in the Red Sox’s rotation, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. He’ll only throw around 55 pitches Wednesday, according to manager Alex Cora (via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe).

Eovaldi has been a starter for almost all of his career, but after he sat out from late April toward the end of July while recovering from elbow surgery, reliever-needy Boston planned to give him a shot as its closer. The decision came in part because the Red Sox weren’t sure if Eovaldi would have the time to build his arm up enough to go back to his typical job as a starter. Eovaldi did not acquit himself well out of the Red Sox’s bullpen, though, as he has allowed eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings since coming off the injured list. The 29-year-old didn’t even rack up a save attempt, with the club instead using Brandon Workman as its closer.

The hard-throwing Eovaldi also had a tough time as a starter this year before going under the knife, which isn’t what the Red Sox envisioned when they splurged on him last winter. After coming over in a midsummer trade with the Rays and then establishing himself as one of the Red Sox’s many playoff heroes during their championship run in 2018, they re-signed him to a four-year, $67.5MM contract in free agency. Eovaldi has since logged a 6.25 ERA/5.74 FIP with 8.81 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9 across 31 2/3 innings. He’s one of many Boston pitchers who have gone through less-than-ideal seasons.

Thanks largely to the struggles of their pitching staff, the Red Sox are on track to begin their offseason far earlier than expected this year. The club’s 62-59, placing it a whopping 17 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the American League East and 8 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Realistically, it’s time to start looking ahead to 2020, when Eovaldi, Chris Sale, the currently injured David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez figure to comprise 80 percent of the team’s rotation.

Red Sox Move Andrew Cashner To Bullpen

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Manager Alex Cora says that the Red Sox will move righty Andrew Cashner into a relief role, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to cover (Twitter links). For the time being, at least, the club will go with a four-man rotation.

Cashner is said to have accepted the demotion — not that he really had any choice in the matter. And it’d be hard to argue he deserves otherwise. In six outings since arriving via trade, Cashner carries a brutal 8.01 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 over 30 1/3 innings.

This move comes as the Red Sox continue to sink in the Wild Card standings. With a 7.5-game deficit entering play today, and no end in sight to the veteran hurler’s struggles, the club can ill afford to keep running him out there every fifth game.

There are also some contractual elements at play here, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. Cashner had an outside shot at triggering a vesting option provision had he made all of his remaining potential starts (and gone deep into every one of them). His most recent start, which lasted only 1 2/3 innings, all but eliminated that possibility. Today’s news buries it once and for all.

It’s unlikely the Boston organization really considered that factor in making today’s move, since it remained quite unlikely that Cashner would’ve made the innings tally required to turn the $10MM club option into a guaranteed 2020 salary. It was natural to bump Cashner from the rotation with so many upcoming off days. Indeed, Cora hinted that the club may at times even try to skip another starter — almost certainly, the scuffling Rick Porcello — over the next six weeks.

Now that Cashner is all but assured to return to the open market at season’s end, it raises the stakes for him over the stretch run. It will certainly be interesting to see whether he can change his fortunes in a relief role.

Latest On Red Sox's Rotation

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The Red Sox are going to have to “be creative” in the near future when it comes to drawing up a plan for their floundering rotation, manager Alex Cora said Sunday (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription required). The club has six days off in the next three weeks, which will enable it to skip certain starters, but there’s no denying Boston’s in trouble. The reigning world champions are what could be an insurmountable 7 1/2 games back of an American League wild-card spot, in part because their rotation has endured a Murphy’s Law year. Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez have arguably been the Red Sox’s best starters, but the former hasn’t been the dominant ace we’ve grown accustomed to watching, and the latter has been more good than great. Meantime, David Price is on the injured list (and went through a horrid stretch before hitting the shelf Aug. 8), former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been horrid, and the pre-trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Cashner has blown up in the team’s face.

2020 Vesting Options Update

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With over two-thirds of the 2019 season in the books, let’s check in to see how seven players are progressing towards possible vesting options in their contracts.  For those unfamiliar with the term, a vesting option is an agreed-upon threshold within a player’s contract (usually based on health and/or playing time) that, if achieved, allows the player to alter the terms of the contract for the next season, and perhaps beyond in some cases.

Some vesting options aren’t reported, so it could be that more players beyond this septet could also be playing towards gaining more guaranteed money or contractual freedom for the 2020 season.  For now, let’s examine just these seven names…

Yonder Alonso, Rockies: Under the terms of the two-year, $16MM deal Alonso signed with the Indians in the 2017-18 offseason, his $9MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) for 2020 becomes guaranteed if the first baseman first passes a physical, and then hit plate-appearance benchmarks.  Unfortunately for Alonso, he has only 287 PA this season, so he’s on pace to fall well short of reaching either 550 PA in 2019 or 1100 total PA in 2018-19 — either of which would’ve caused his option to vest.

Andrew Cashner, Red Sox: Having struggled through six starts since coming to Boston in a trade from the Orioles, the Sox have a legitimate performance-related reason for moving Cashner out of their rotation.  There would also be a financial motive involved, as Cashner’s $10MM club option for 2020 would become guaranteed if he amasses 340 total innings in 2018-19.  After today’s abbreviated outing against the Angels, Cashner now has 279 2/3 IP over the last two seasons, putting him within distant range of causing his option to vest if he keeps receiving starts.  (Incidentally, the option could also vest into a player option if Cashner hits the 360-inning threshold.)

Sean Doolittle, Nationals: The closer finished his league-high 47th game of the season today, giving him 82 games finished since the start of the 2018 season.  Should Doolittle reach 100 games finished, the Nationals’ $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) on Doolittle for 2020 would vest into a mutual option, giving him the opportunity to opt out of his contract and enter into free agency.  This is definitely one to watch down the stretch, since with the Nats in a postseason race and the rest of their bullpen struggling, D.C. won’t hesitate to use their closer for every save situation possible.  Manager Davey Martinez has used Doolittle in a traditional late-game role, so shifting him into high-leverage situations outside of the ninth inning to cut down on his games-finished numbers would be a risky (and controversial) tactic, to say the least.

Chris Iannetta, Rockies: With 110 starts at catcher since the beginning of the 2018 season, Iannetta won’t reach the 220 catching starts he needed to convert the Rockies’ $4.25MM club option on his services for 2020 into a guarantee.

Wade LeBlanc, Mariners: The unique extension signed by LeBlanc in July 2018 carried three $5MM club option years for 2020-22 that can all vest into guarantees.  That 2020 option turns into guaranteed money if LeBlanc throws 160 innings in 2019 and doesn’t have a left arm injury at season’s end.  A month-long IL stint due to an oblique strain earlier this season almost certainly ended LeBlanc’s chance at the 160-inning plateau, as he has only 98 IP thus far.  While he’s still eating a good share of innings as a “bulk pitcher” behind an opener in most outings, it seems likely that LeBlanc won’t reach his vesting threshold.

Brandon Morrow, Cubs: Morrow’s two-year, $21MM deal carried a 2020 vesting option worth $12MM, or a $3MM buyout.  It wasn’t actually known what the terms were of this option, though since injuries have kept Morrow from pitching since July 15, 2018, it’s safe to assume the option won’t vest, and Morrow will be a free agent this winter.

Oliver Perez, Indians: The veteran southpaw appeared in his 49th game of the season today, so barring injury, he’s a lock to hit the 55 appearances required to guarantee his $2.75MM club option for 2020.  He also seems like a pretty safe bet to lock in even more money, as that option will be guaranteed at $3MM if Perez pitches in 60 games.  The Tribe likely won’t at all mind having Perez back for another season, as the reliever continues to dominate left-handed batters.

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