AL East Notes: Sandoval, Devers, Tillman, Erasmo
Tim Britton of the Providence Journal takes a look at where the Red Sox‘ contract with Pablo Sandoval stands historically in comparison to other large contracts. As might be expected, it doesn’t fare well at this stage of the analysis. While there’s still time for the former star to add back value, it seems likelier than ever that he won’t hold onto a roster spot for the rest of the season. (Currently, Sandoval is taking a DL stint for an inner ear infection.) As things stand, says Britton, Sandoval has posted the worst performance (by measure of WAR) of any player to sign a deal in excess of $90MM.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Sandoval’s struggles have helped frame the trade deadline for the Red Sox, as third base presently stands as a glaring need. But there is perhaps one other possibility: top prospect Rafael Devers, who has hit well at Double-A. Boston, presumably, would want to have a look at Devers in the majors before deciding whether to forgo a significant outside addition. That won’t happen immediately, though; per skipper John Farrell, via Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (on Twitter), Devers’s next promotion will be to Triple-A Pawtucket, not to the majors. With less than six weeks to go until the trade deadline, this raises the question whether the club is seriously considering Devers as the near-term answer at third. That said, it’s possible to imagine that Boston will hold out such a possibility while also moving to add a veteran piece at the hot corner, perhaps preferring a player who could also see time elsewhere on the diamond (in the middle infield, at first, or even in the outfield) over a pure third bagger.
- The Orioles‘ rotation remains a major question mark, with righty Chris Tillman now seemingly at risk of losing his spot. As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes, team and player seem to be running out of ideas; Tillman has limped to a ghastly 8.39 ERA with just 5.9 K/9 against 5.0 BB/9 through 39 2/3 innings on the year since returning from injury. While manager Buck Showalter says he’s “hoping Chris can solve this as a starter,” he hinted that the patience is running thin while noting that Tillman is operating without “a lot of crispness” or “a real confident presentation” on the mound. While Tillman says he’s healthy, Meoli notes that he’s struggling to maintain his release point — with a velocity drop and command troubles on his secondary offerings seemingly resulting. All told, it’s a big problem for the O’s, who lack obvious internal solutions, and for the pending free agent.
- Also struggling at the moment is Rays righty Erasmo Ramirez. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, skipper Kevin Cash says that there’s no immediate threat to Ramirez’s rotation spot despite his recent struggles. Still, Topkin suggests that Ramirez’s outing today could determine his near-term fate. With young lefty Blake Snell and others throwing well at Triple-A, there are alternative available to Tampa Bay. How the Rays rotation evolves over the coming six weeks could have some deadline implications, too. The club presently sits two games over .500, and likely won’t punt a chance to contend, but might still market a starter (particularly, free-agent-to-be Alex Cobb) if the team feels it has sufficient in-house depth.
Red Sox Place Pablo Sandoval On 10-Day DL
The saga of Pablo Sandoval has taken another interesting turn, as the Red Sox announced today that he has been placed on the 10-day DL with an inner ear infection. The underperforming veteran has long been rumored as a candidate to be replaced, but the move at least buys the team some time to plot its next steps.
Boston also announced that righty Austin Maddox was optioned back to Triple-A. First baseman Sam Travis and infielder Deven Marrero will come up to take the open spots on the active roster.
Sandoval, 30, now owns a .212/.269/.354 slash through 108 plate appearances. That’s obviously far shy of the kind of output the Sox need from a regular third baseman. And if he’s not capable of manning that spot with some regularity, there’s not much function to keeping him around.
Of course, there’s more to it than just that. The Red Sox owe Sandoval $17MM this year, $18MM apiece in 2018 and 2019, and then a $5MM buyout on a 2020 option. While the club is obviously going to pay that regardless, it would no doubt prefer to hold out the possibility of receiving some return on its investment.
Indeed, there seems to be a sense within the organization that there’s still some glimmer of hope for Sandoval after he worked hard to get in shape over the winter and showed well this spring. And it’s not as if the in-house replacement options are terribly appealing, either. Marrero will likely pair with Josh Rutledge at third, at least once Dustin Pedroia is able to return at second, while Travis will offer an alternative another right-handed bat for the first base/DH mix.
Health Notes: Pollock, Smith, E-Rod, Villar, Hughes, Zobrist, AGon, Semien, Werth, Flaherty
Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock has suffered a new injury while on a rehab assignment, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. Pollock, who is working back from a groin strain, is now said to be day-to-day with tightness in his right quad. The severity isn’t yet known, though the presence of another lower-body muscle issue will surely cause the organization to proceed with caution. With the Snakes locked in a surprising and increasingly fascinating battle in the NL West, they will be anxious to get Pollock back, though clearly the long view is required for such an important player with such a checkered injury history.
Let’s check in on a few more injury situations from around the game:
- The Blue Jays placed righty Joe Smith on the 10-day DL before today’s game, per a club announcement. He is dealing with shoulder inflammation. That’s a big loss for a Toronto club that has made huge strides after a woeful start to the year. Smith has been quite effective while maintaining a heavy workload; through 34 appearances, he carries a 3.41 ERA. More impressively, Smith has nearly doubled last year’s strikeout rate (13.4 K/9) while maintaining a 13.0% swinging-strike rate that dwarfs any of his prior single-season marks.
- While the Red Sox wait to learn more about the status of second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who took a pitch to the ribcage on Sunday, the club has continued to receive good news on lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets, skipper John Farrell says that Rodriguez will face live hitters this week and possibly head out for a rehab assignment thereafter.
- Things are clearing up for Brewers infielder Jonathan Villar as well, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. Villar, who has struggled in the wake of a breakout 2016 season, says that his lower back is feeling so much better that he might be ready for a rehab stint soon. Milwaukee may well need a healthy and more effective Villar if it hopes to continue to outpace the rest of the NL Central.
- In other forthcoming rehab stints, Twins righty Phil Hughes is scheduled for a start at Triple-A on Wednesday, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. It seems that he has avoided the worst-case scenario after experiencing some symptoms akin to those that led to thoracic outlet surgery. Minnesota is also giving a rehab start to lefty Hector Santiago, who seems likely to avoid a lengthy DL stint for his shoulder issue.
- Veteran Cubs infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist got some good news, as Jeff Arnold of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. An MRI came back clean, leaving the club hopeful that the veteran will be able to return as soon as Friday. That said, Zobrist acknowledged that he still needs to test out the wrist at full speed, noting that “we’re not going to push it.”
- Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts provided an update on first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. The veteran has received an epidural to treat his lower back issues, says Roberts, with the organization hopeful that Gonzalez will be able to return sometime around the All-Star break next month.
- The Athletics will send shortstop Marcus Semien out on a rehab assignment later this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He has been participating in baseball activities to test his surgically repaired wrist, and it seems the progress is sufficient to allow him to take the next step.
- Meanwhile, the going is somewhat slow for Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth. As Dan Kolko of MASNsport.com tweets, manager Dusty Baker says that the veteran is still not ready for baseball activities. Instead, he’s still focused on taking care of his bruised left foot.
- The Orioles don’t appear likely to welcome back infielder Ryan Flaherty any time soon, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. His balky shoulder didn’t respond well to an attempt to ramp up a throwing program, so the team will slow things down. Were it not for the injury, Flaherty would likely have represented part of the plan for dealing with the more recent DL placement of J.J. Hardy.
AL Notes: Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles
The Red Sox signed first baseman Mitch Moreland to a one-year, $5.5MM contract over the winter, passing on bigger names in the process, and it has worked out beautifully so far, observes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Boston probably would have gone a more expensive route had it not been so close to the luxury-tax threshold, which may have also cost the team a first-round pick, writes MacPherson. To this point, Moreland has held his own relative to more expensive offseason signings such as Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, Jose Bautista and Carlos Beltran. Moreland, an ex-Ranger, has slashed .280/.373/.480 with nine home runs in his first 260 plate appearances with the Red Sox. What’s more, the 31-year-old has transferred his strong work in the field from Texas to Boston, having racked up three Defensive Runs Saved and notched a 2.4 UZR/150.
A couple more American League-related items…
- One of Moreland’s former teammates – free agent right-hander Colby Lewis – was unwilling to return to the Rangers on a minor league contract last offseason, and he explained why to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. “I didn’t want to fight for a position,” Lewis said. “Here I am, I have been here forever. I’ll be 38 this season, you want to make me fight for a spot? It was a bitter pill to swallow and still is. I always wanted to wear this uniform, this is where I wanted to be.” Lewis, a Ranger from 2002-04 and 2010-16 who pitched to a 3.71 ERA/4.81 FIP in 116 1/3 innings last year, isn’t ready to call it a career. However, it doesn’t seem as if he’ll take a minors deal anywhere. While Lewis contends he’s only five to six weeks away from being major league ready, it’s difficult to imagine anyone giving him a guaranteed contract.
- Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy‘s wrist is “not good” after he took a 93 mph Lance Lynn fastball off it Sunday, manager Buck Showalter told reporters (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “We took an X-ray here, saw something that concerned us,” continued Showalter. “I know he’s got a scan in the morning and we’ll have a little more definitive idea there.” It’s likely Hardy will head to the disabled list, per Kubatko, meaning the Orioles would have two regular infielders on the DL (first baseman Chris Davis is the other). Ruben Tejada, Paul Janish and Luis Sardinas are the in-house options to fill in for Hardy, notes Kubatko, though Tejada’s the only one on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. The 34-year-old Hardy isn’t exactly an irreplaceable cog at this stage of his career, evidenced by his .211/.248/.308 batting line in 239 plate appearances. The only qualified hitter with a worse wRC+ than Hardy’s (43) is Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (19).
Trade Rumblings: Cozart, Alonso, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers, Cards
Even though Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has surprisingly been among the majors’ best players this year, there probably won’t be many teams bidding for him at the trade deadline, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required and recommended). Most contenders are in search of pitching, not shortstops, which could hinder the Reds’ efforts to land a quality return for the free agent-to-be. The same lack of demand at shortstop might end up applying to both first base and the outfield, observes Olney, who notes that it may be a problem for Pittsburgh if it tries move Andrew McCutchen or Kansas City in the event it markets Eric Hosmer and/or Lorenzo Cain.
More rumblings as the deadline draws closer:
- Breakout first baseman Yonder Alonso would like to sign an extension with the Athletics, but they’re “nearly certain” to put him on the block, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Contrary to Olney’s argument that there might not be much of a market for first basemen, Morosi contends that three AL playoff hopefuls – New York, Seattle and Los Angeles – could each stand to upgrade at the position. The Yankees will prioritize beefing up their rotation and may battle the Red Sox for Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, per Morosi, but Greg Bird‘s injury issues might also put Alonso on their radar. The lefty-swinging, fly ball-hitting Alonso, who has slashed .302/.397/.630 with 17 home runs in 219 plate appearances during a contract year, would seemingly be a perfect fit for the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium.
- Meanwhile, the aforementioned Cain could be ideal for the Dodgers, argues Morosi, who suggests they’re likely to adjust their outfield alignment in the coming weeks. Of course, barring other moves, picking up another outfielder would add to an already crowded situation in the grass for LA. The club currently has stellar rookie Cody Bellinger, unexpected 2017 star Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the mix as prominent outfield options, with Enrique Hernandez and Franklin Gutierrez adding further depth and Andre Ethier on the disabled list.
- Along with potentially addressing their outfield, it’s “increasingly apparent” that the Dodgers will look for rotation help, relays Morosi. Dodgers starters rank third in the majors in both ERA and fWAR, but Morosi points out that some of their hurlers are health risks and they’ll also want to avoid starting ace Clayton Kershaw on short rest if they get to the NLDS. Kershaw took the hill in that scenario during each of the previous four division series in which the Dodgers participated.
- While Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez‘s name has come up in connection to St. Louis, the fact that the Cardinals are 11.5 games out of a wild-card spot might steer them away from position player rentals, notes Olney. As of now, the Redbirds only have one realistic path to a playoff berth – by winning the NL Central – but they also have plenty of ground to make up there (5.5 games). Moreover, they may have a sleeping giant to contend with in the reigning champion Cubs, who are 2.5 games behind upstart Milwaukee for the division lead.
Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland
The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports. Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract. Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.
Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…
- There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians. One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
- The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races. Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams. Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell‘s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese‘s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
- The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised. The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money. Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes. The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi. The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
- The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
- Speaking of the Braves‘ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent. In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April. For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
- A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017. Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010. A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
- Greg Holland‘s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon‘s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason. Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
- One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season. Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge‘s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper. Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.
Cafardo’s Latest: Gray, Astros, Stanton, Phils, Cards, BoSox
The AL West rival Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a trade that would involve Oakland right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The last-place A’s have been closely monitoring the Astros’ system, per Cafardo, during a period in which Houston’s four best starters (Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh) are on the disabled list. Gray, who would likely slot in third in a healthy Astros rotation, is only running a 4.44 ERA through 52 2/3 innings, but his secondary stats are encouraging and he’s under control via arbitration through 2019. As such, he’d warrant a strong return for the A’s.
More rumblings from Cafardo as the trade deadline approaches:
- If the Marlins place right fielder Giancarlo Stanton on the trade block in the coming months, the NL East rival Phillies would be a sensible landing spot, opines Cafardo. The cellar-dwelling Phillies are a big-market team with the money and the prospects to swing a deal for Stanton (who’s due nearly $300MM over the final 10 years of his contract), observes Cafardo. Stanton has a full no-trade clause, though, so there’s no guarantee he’d approve a deal to Philadelphia or anywhere else. Further complicating matters, Cafardo has heard that the Phillies would “need” to acquire fellow Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich in a deal involving Stanton. Even though Yelich is under control for reasonable prices through the 2022 campaign, he could end up on the block.
- Given that they’re five games back in their division and 10.5 out of a wild-card spot, the Cardinals don’t look like surefire buyers at the moment. Nevertheless, a pair of right-handed-hitting right fielders – the Tigers’ J.D. Martinez and the White Sox’s Avisail Garcia – have been frequently linked to the Redbirds this year, relays Cafardo. Martinez, a free agent-to-be who’s on an $11.75MM salary, is hitting a torrid .310/.398/.681 with 11 home runs in 133 plate appearances for the scuffling Tigers. Garcia, who’s much cheaper than Martinez ($3MM) and under control through 2019, is in the midst of a career year (.337/.378/.549 with 10 HRs in 262 PAs) for the soon-to-sell White Sox.
- The Red Sox have “limited” interest in signing free agent third baseman Jhonny Peralta to a minor league contract, reports Cafardo. Peralta has been available since St. Louis released him Tuesday, which came after more than a year of subpar production from the once-steady veteran. Peralta would give the Red Sox yet another flawed hot corner option, though he is familiar with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was the general manager in Detroit during Peralta’s run there from 2010-13.
- Phillies left fielder Howie Kendrick will intrigue both the Red Sox and Yankees if he’s able to play third, writes Cafardo. Kendrick has a bit of experience there (18 games), but the 33-year-old primarily lined up at second base before switching to the outfield. Regardless of whether a move to third is on the horizon, the righty-swinging Kendrick has emerged as a likely trade chip for rebuilding Philadelphia, suggests Cafardo (and as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk and Jeff Todd have recently noted). Kendrick isn’t cheap ($10MM), but the impending free agent has helped his stock with a .324/.383/.467 line in 115 PAs.
AL East Notes: Plouffe, Davis, Smith, Red Sox
The Rays see newly acquired Trevor Plouffe helping them against left-handed pitching, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. He’ll be used to spell Evan Longoria at third base and Logan Morrison at first, and the Rays could also consider using him in the corner outfield spots, manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin. Cash also says the organization had talks with Plouffe last winter before he ultimately signed with the Athletics. “For us to be able to get him here two months, three months, in is a good thing for us,” Cash says. Here’s more from the AL East.
- Chris Davis‘ oblique strain could keep him out of the Orioles‘ lineup until after the All-Star break, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. This season’s break begins July 10. Davis reports improvement in the injury but says he’s still having trouble moving and sleeping. “I was basically told it’s sensitive,” says Davis. “It’s one of those things you don’t want to rush because if you have a setback, it makes things that much harder.” This isn’t Davis’ first oblique strain — he landed on the disabled list with one in 2014, although that one was on his left side, and his current injury is on his right.
- Red Sox reliever Carson Smith has been shut down for four or five days with a shoulder inflammation, meaning he won’t be able to begin his rehab assignment as planned, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. Smith had Tommy John surgery last year and hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since last May, so this setback, even if it proves to be a minor one, must be frustrating for him.
- Trades for Smith and another injured reliever, Tyler Thornburg, demonstrate a failure in approach, Evan Drellich of CSNNE.com writes. It’s not the Red Sox’ fault Smith and Thornburg got hurt, but reliever performance tends to be mercurial, and the Red Sox have gotten good results this season from players like Matt Barnes and Robby Scott, for whom they didn’t have to part with significant assets. Of course, as Drellich also notes, the team’s trade for Craig Kimbrel has been a great success thus far.
Pitching Health Notes: Gray, ERod, Urias, MadBum, Chargois
Rockies righty Jon Gray made his first rehab start, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. He may need only one or two more minor league outings before rejoining the Colorado rotation, but holds out the promise of providing a significant boost upon his return. Likewise, southpaw Tyler Anderson is making his way back toward the big leagues, meaning the Rox will face some rotation questions in short order.
Here’s more on a few other pitching health matters from around the league:
- It’s possible that the Red Sox may soon welcome back lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. per an update from manager John Farrell (h/t Peter Abraham of the Boston Glove; links to Twitter). Rodriguez was “ecstatic” after a 33-pitch pen session today, says Farrell, who indicated that the southpaw may be only one rehab start away from returning to the majors. That would surely be excellent news for Boston; Rodriguez’s knee issue seemed rather frightening when it arose, since he has dealt with significant problems in the joint in the past.
- Likewise, the Dodgers got good news on young southpaw Julio Urias, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). While he’ll still be shut down until the soreness in his shoulder subsides, Urias did not exhibit any structural issues in an MRI.
- With the Giants back in Colorado, the team is seeing continued progress from ace Madison Bumgarner, who is still recovering from the shoulder injury he suffered in an off-day dirtbiking accident during the team’s prior trip out to Denver. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, Bumgarner is set to face live hitting on Sunday and report to the organization’s spring facility. After that, he’d only be a rehab assignment away from a return, though the club will undoubtedly exercise ample caution given the club’s unenviable position in the standings.
- As the Twins continue to hold onto a surprising AL Central lead, despite one of the league’s worst bullpens, the front office is surely at least thinking of ways to bolster the MLB roster while also remaining mindful of the broader organizational mission. Unfortunately, the club seemingly won’t be able to call upon relief prospect J.T. Chargois, per Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, who tweets that a “stress reaction on the outside of his elbow” will keep the young righty out for some time. The fireballer already missed significant time earlier in his career with elbow problems. Minnesota already lost out on another possible mid-season boost to the bullpen when Nick Burdi required Tommy John surgery earlier this year.
Tyler Thornburg To Undergo Surgery For Thoracic Outlet Syndrome
The Red Sox announced on Thursday that right-hander Tyler Thornburg will undergo surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Thornburg, who has yet to pitch this year due to ongoing shoulder troubles, will miss the entire season.
The team expects Thornburg to be ready for the 2018 season. Per Dombrowski, via Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com (on Twitter), the medical expectation is that the reliever could be ready for MLB action in nine months’ time. That would land in mid-March, right in the middle of 2018 Spring Training.
[Related: Boston Red Sox depth chart]
Boston acquired the 28-year-old Thornburg this offseason on the heels of an excellent 2016 campaign, hoping that he could help to serve as a bridge from the rotation to closer Craig Kimbrel. However, for the second consecutive offseason, Boston’s top bullpen addition will be unable to contribute to the club due to injury. (Carson Smith underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 and has yet to take the hill for the BoSox, either.) The trade looks decidedly lopsided at this point, as Boston sent third baseman Travis Shaw and prospects Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca to Milwaukee in return.
Of course, thoracic outlet syndrome was entirely unforeseeable, and based on Thornburg’s 2016 success, the Red Sox had every reason to be interested in the breakout righty. Last year, Thornburg tossed 67 innings of 2.15 ERA ball while averaging 12.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 32.4 percent ground-ball rate. The former starter also saw his fastball velocity jump to an average of 94.1 mph, and his 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate was comfortably above average among big league relievers. On top of that, Thornburg entered the 2017 season with just over three years of service time, giving Boston three more years of control over the righty before free agency.
The Sox will have another two years to try to recoup some value from the swap, though there’s no guarantee that Thornburg will simply bounce back to his former self. While some pitchers, such as Chris Young and Jaime Garcia, have come back and enjoyed success following the operation, more recent cases such as Phil Hughes and Matt Harvey have struggled upon returning from the same procedure.
Even without Thornburg contributing, however, Boston’s bullpen has been a strength in 2017. Red Sox relievers have the second-best ERA and FIP of any team in the Majors, and their xFIP ranks fourth among big league clubs. Craig Kimbrel has not only bounced back after a down season (by his standards) in 2016 — he’s turned in the best year of his remarkable career to date. Joe Kelly, meanwhile, is sporting a 1.27 ERA, and Matt Barnes has emerged as a reliable setup arm as well. In fact, the Red Sox have eight relievers that have totaled 10 or more innings in 2017, and all but one (rookie Ben Taylor) has turned in an ERA of 3.77 or better.