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Red Sox Evaluating Market For Position Player Depth

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The Red Sox are still evaluating the market for depth on the position player side, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That acquisition would ideally be an infielder who could compete with the likes of Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec, Enmanuel Valdez and Romy González for a backup job.

Boston had been linked to a few depth infielders who have come off the market in recent weeks. The Sox were tied to each of Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela and Garrett Cooper at points. None of those players would’ve been costly. Rosario and Ursehla took $1.5MM guarantees with the Rays and Tigers, respectively. Cooper settled for a non-roster pact with the Cubs. The Sox evidently didn’t feel their need for infield help was sufficiently pressing to handily top those offers. Nevertheless, there are still a few players they could try to bring in a minor league or one-year MLB deal.

Donovan Solano can cover any of first, second or third base. He’s coming off a .282/.369/.391 showing for the Twins a year ago. Elvis Andrus can cover either middle infield spot and is the best remaining free agent shortstop. Evan Longoria could see action at either corner infield position, while C.J. Cron and Joey Votto are available for teams seeking first base help. Cotillo notes that Adam Duvall, another reported player of interest to the Sox, has first base experience in addition to his more traditional outfield work.

Boston isn’t going to add an everyday infielder. They’re comfortable across the diamond with Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Trevor Story and Rafael Devers. That has the potential to be a lackluster defensive group, particularly on the left side, but none of them are in danger of being squeezed out of the Opening Day lineup.

Reyes turned in a .287/.339/.377 batting line in a career-high 185 plate appearances a year ago. He played both middle infield spots and can bounce throughout the infield. Reyes doesn’t bring any power to the table, but his contact skills and defensive flexibility make him a viable utility player. He’s also out of options, so the Sox would have to trade or waive him if they’re not going to carry him on the MLB roster. That gives him a good shot at making the club.

There’d be room for one more depth type, ideally someone with more offensive punch than Reyes brings to the table. Dalbec, González, Valdez and David Hamilton all still have options remaining. If the Sox brought in someone on a big league contract, it could spur some kind of movement with Dalbec. He’s 28 and going into his final option season.

Dalbec showed promise three seasons ago, hitting 25 home runs with a .240/.298/.494 slash over 453 plate appearances. He struck out more than 34% of the time, though, and he hasn’t remedied those swing-and-miss issues. Dalbec hit .215/.283/.369 in 2022 and only got into 21 MLB games last year. He had a monster slash line for the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester — .269/.381/.557 with 33 homers, tying for the Triple-A lead — but continued to strike out at a near-35% rate.

Red Sox Sign Jason Alexander To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed right-hander Jason Alexander to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The righty is a client of Apex Baseball.

Alexander, 31 on Friday, was able to make his major league debut with the Brewers in 2022. He tossed 71 2/3 innings over 11 starts and seven relief appearances. He posted a 5.40 earned run average in that time with a subpar 14.3% strikeout rate but a strong 50.6% ground ball rate and an 8.7% walk rate that was right around league average.

Last year, he was shut down in the spring due to a shoulder strain and began the year on the 60-day injured list. He was activated off the IL in July but then optioned to the minors. A few weeks later, he was outrighted off the 40-man. He tossed 55 1/3 innings at Triple-A last year with a 5.86 ERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. He was not added back to the roster at season’s end and was able to elect free agency.

The righty’s performance in recent years has largely resembled his previous body of work. He’s never racked up tons of strikeouts but has avoided walks and kept the ball on the ground. He has a 4.75 ERA in 407 1/3 innings minor league innings in his career overall. He has only punched out 19.3% of batters faced but has only walked 6.4% of them while getting heaps of ground balls.

The Red Sox posted a team-wide ERA of 4.52 last year, a mark that was better than just nine other clubs. They came into this winter looking to upgrade the pitching staff but haven’t done too much. They signed Lucas Giolito to take a spot in their rotation but also traded Chris Sale to Atlanta. They’ve also made marginal additions, adding guys like Cooper Criswell, Greg Weissert and Isaiah Campbell.

Alexander will be looking to earn his way onto the roster alongside other non-roster players like Joely Rodríguez and Lucas Luetge. If Alexander is added at any point, he still has a couple of options and less than a year of service time.

Red Sox, Montgomery Had Zoom Meeting Before Start Of Spring Training

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The Red Sox have been tied to Jordan Montgomery for the bulk of the offseason. Reporting last week indicated the Sox remained interested in the left-hander but continued to wait for his asking price to drop.

ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that the Red Sox had “recently” conducted a Zoom meeting with Montgomery. Manager Alex Cora confirmed to the Boston beat the meeting took place but indicated it happened before the beginning of Spring Training.

“Buster is right,” Cora said (link via Christopher Smith and Sean McAdam of MassLive). “We zoomed with him. But we’ve been zooming with a lot of people throughout the offseason. I’m not going to get into specifics but yeah, it’s part of the process. It was a while ago, too. I was in South Beach for that one. I was in Miami.” Smith and McAdam point out that Cora was in Miami on the weekend of February 9-11 to watch the end of the Caribbean series and take part in a University of Miami alumni event.

Clearly, that conversation didn’t result in an immediate agreement. With Montgomery still on the market two and a half weeks later, the Sox remain a logical fit. They haven’t markedly upgraded their rotation throughout the winter. Boston took a flier on Lucas Giolito before shipping out Chris Sale for second baseman Vaughn Grissom.

They’re currently set to enter the season with a front four of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Righties Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski would battle for the final spot. Installing Montgomery atop the group would allow Boston to keep the latter three arms in multi-inning relief roles to begin the year.

[Related: Where Does The Market Stand For Jordan Montgomery?]

The question is whether his asking price will fall to a level with which the Red Sox are comfortable. CEO Sam Kennedy sam last month the Sox anticipated opening the season with a lower payroll than they had in 2023. Roster Resource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $202MM. That’s nowhere near the $237MM base threshold and around $23MM shy of last year’s estimated mark. Signing Montgomery wouldn’t push the Sox into CBT territory, but it would likely push them close to their 2023 spending range.

One of the “Boras Four,” Cody Bellinger, came off the market over the weekend on a three-year deal. The $80MM guarantee was nowhere near what his camp had sought early in the offseason. A reported ask above $200MM never materialized, leaving Bellinger to settle for a modified pillow contract that could allow him to retest free agency via opt-outs in either of the next two offseasons.

That kind of contract might not be as appealing to Montgomery. He recently turned 31 and was ineligible for the qualifying offer this offseason thanks to the midseason trade sending him from St. Louis to Texas. If he took an opt-out laden deal, he could have to wrestle with draft compensation in a future offseason. Montgomery is coming off a third straight year in which he reached 30 starts. He tossed a personal-high 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA that was the best mark of his career. He added 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball over six postseason outings to help the Rangers to the first title in franchise history.

Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Mata, Yoshida

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While the Red Sox indicated early in the offseason that addressing the starting rotation would be a priority for the club this winter, it seems they’ll go into the 2024 season having only swapped out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito, at least barring a late bid for Jordan Montgomery. Should the club stick with its internal options for the rotation mix, Sean McAdam of MassLive relayed comments from manager Alex Cora regarding the state of the rotation yesterday. Per McAdam, Cora suggested that right-handers Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta are all locked into the rotation to open the season. Meanwhile, McAdam adds that Cora indicated Kutter Crawford would have a “leg up” over each of Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Josh Winckowski in the battle for the final two rotation spots.

That Giolito and Bello are locked into rotation spots entering the season is hardly a surprise, given the pair are the only two hurlers on the club’s staff to make at least 25 starts last year. Likewise, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Whitlock, Houck, and Winckowski are under consideration for a role at the back of the club’s rotation. Each righty made at least one start for the club last year and the trio of young hurlers all figure to be key pieces of the club’s pitching plans this season, whether in starting roles or in relief.

That being said, it’s something of a surprise that Cora indicated Pivetta has a more firm grasp on a rotation spot than Crawford. The 31-year-old Pivetta was dominant for the Red Sox in a multi-inning relief last year with a 3.05 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work, while he pitched to a far more pedestrian 4.66 ERA in sixteen starts in 2023. Crawford, by contrast, Made 23 starts for the Red Sox last year and pitched to a 4.20 ERA with an excellent 3.64 FIP after joining the rotation full time in early June. Cora’s characterization of Crawford’s position in the rotation mix also represent a slight departure from comments chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made last month, where he suggested that Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford all were set to enter camp as members of the rotation.

More from around Red Sox camp…

  • Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) this morning. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future.
  • WEEI’s Rob Bradford spoke to outfielder Masataka Yoshida today, and Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year, slashing just .254/.278/.386 over his final 62 games after entering the All Star break with an excellent .316/.382/.492 slash line.

Chris Sale Discusses His Surprise Over Trade To Braves

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The Chris Sale-for-Vaughn Grissom trade between the Braves and Red Sox caught many in baseball by surprise, including Sale himself.  The veteran southpaw related in a recent appearance on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast (hat tip to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford) that being dealt “wasn’t even in the realm of possibilities.  That wasn’t even a thought that crossed my mind” heading into the offseason.  As Sale plainly put it, “Why would anybody want me at this point?” in the wake of multiple injury-plagued seasons.

There was also the factor of Sale’s 10-and-5 no-trade rights, so he could’ve rejected the chance to join the Braves.  However, after less than a day of discussing things with his family and inner circle, Sale okayed the deal, with some Grapefruit League geography playing a major role.  The Braves’ spring facility in North Port, Florida adds only roughly an hour to Sale’s commute from his home, so “I can still live my life while being part of this team in spring training.  That was probably the most important thing.  One hundred percent.  My kids play sports.  They’ve got school stuff going on.”  Sale also relayed the amusing item that the first proper conversation he had with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow after weeks of texts and “phone tag” was when Breslow let Sale know the trade was in the works.

Latest On Red Sox, Jordan Montgomery

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The end of February is now less than a week away and Spring Training games have begun, yet plenty of significant free agents remain unsigned. As long as they linger on the open market, they will continue to be the subject of discussion. That’s particularly true of the “Boras Four,” which is formed by Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, all of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation.

The Red Sox have been loosely tied to Montgomery throughout the offseason and that connection was addressed this morning by both Rod Bradford of WEEI and Sean McAdam of MassLive. Bradford reports that the club appears to prefer Montgomery to other available free agents but it is still waiting for the price to come down. McAdam frames it similarly, noting that the club has stayed in contact with Scott Boras “as a matter of course.” McAdam also suggests the Sox could fit Montgomery into their budget if his asking price drops, but he also points out that several other clubs would jump into the fray at that point. At any rate, it seems to be a moot point for now since McAdam relays that the asking price has not dropped.

The fit between the two sides is a sensible one in some ways. Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital and there would surely be some appeal to the convenience of working in the same city for much of the year. But beyond that, the club has been searching for starting pitching all winter and hasn’t really found it. They did sign Lucas Giolito but also traded away Chris Sale, leaving them roughly where they started. One might argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale but that substitution doesn’t address the overall depth.

The Red Sox have also been quieter than some other traditional big spenders. While clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers are well beyond the fourth and final luxury tax tier, the Sox aren’t even above the lowest threshold of $237MM. Boston’s competitive balance tax figure is at $202MM, per Roster Resource, which gives them plenty of room to theoretically make a big splash and still avoid the tax. Some other clubs like the Padres, Rangers, Mariners and Twins seem to be operating with diminished spending capacity this winter due to uncertainty in their TV revenue situations.

All that could perhaps put the Red Sox in a position to strike, but there are also reasons to suspect it won’t happen. The club’s president Sam Kennedy was recently present as Spring Training facilities and spoke to the media, with Christopher Smith of MassLive relaying some video. “We have set parameters for him,” Kennedy said in response to a question about whether chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a hard budget. “He’s operating under those parameters.” He declined to elaborate with specifics.

All teams have budgets but there can sometimes be a point where opportunities push a club to alter their plans. Both the club and Boras appear to be holding their positions for now and time will tell whether one side blinks or if the staredown leads to Montgomery signing elsewhere.

It’s possible something will happen to get things moving, but the Sox might proceed into the season with their current rotation mix. Last month, Breslow said the rotation consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That would leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski as options for the final spot.

Giolito has plenty of success in his career but his earned run average has finished just below 5.00 in each of the past two seasons. Bello and Crawford each have just over 200 major league innings under their belts. Pivetta’s 2023 finished strong but he was bumped to the bullpen for a time due to some shaky results. The latter three worked both as starters and relievers in their careers and are still trying to establish themselves as legitimate rotation options.

There’s plenty of uncertainty in that mix and an addition would make sense if the Sox are willing to add some money to the payroll. In addition to Snell and Montgomery, the free agent market still features Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and others. In addition to the Sox, Montgomery has received reported interest from clubs like the Angels and Giants, with other clubs making logical sense. MLBTR predicted him for a six-year, $150MM deal coming into the winter but his continued stay in free agency suggests that he hasn’t had offers in that vicinity and the chances of him getting there will likely drop as time goes on.

Red Sox Re-Sign Joely Rodriguez To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox re-signed left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe tweeted this morning that Rodriguez was at the Red Sox’ spring facility in Fort Myers, Fla. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo added that he’s in camp on a minor league deal. Rodriguez is a client of L.A. Sports Management.

Rodriguez, 32, was with the Sox in 2023 but pitched just 11 innings due to oblique, shoulder and hip injuries that combined to result in three different stints on the injured list. He posted a 6.55 ERA in his short time on the mound, striking out 27.5% of his opponents against an 11.8% walk rate and 45.2% ground-ball rate.

It wasn’t a strong year overall for Rodriguez, but the lefty has posted far better numbers over the three preceding seasons in his return from an excellent two-year stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. From 2020-22, Rodriguez pitched 109 1/3 frames between the Rangers, Yankees and Mets, working to a 4.28 ERA with even more encouraging secondary marks. Rodriguez fanned 25.5% of his opponents in that time and induced grounders at a huge 55.7% clip. His 10.3% walk rate was still a couple ticks north of the league average, but the lefty offered an enticing blend of missed bats and grounders while excelling at keeping the ball in the park (0.58 HR/9). Metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) were rather bullish on his work.

The Red Sox have little in the way of established left-handed bullpen options on the 40-man roster. Brennan Bernardino surprised with 50 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball as a 31-year-old rookie last season, but the only other southpaws on the roster are Joe Jacques and minor league starters Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy. Rodriguez joins Lucas Luetge as a veteran southpaw who’ll compete for a job in Alex Cora’s bullpen. With a healthy spring, he ought to have a decent chance at winning a spot in a bullpen that’s seen a fair bit of turnover this offseason in the wake of a front office shakeup.

Eric Hosmer Retires

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First baseman Eric Hosmer hasn’t been on a major league roster in almost a year and has now decided to hang up his spikes. He tells John Perrotto of Forbes that he has now officially retired and is pivoting into the media sphere.

Hosmer, now 34, was one of many high-profile prospects in the Royals’ system, going back almost a couple of decades. The club leaned into a lengthy period of tanking in the early parts of this century, losing at least 87 games in nine straight seasons from 2004 to 2012. Over that time, they were able to pile up young talent in their farm system thanks to some strong draft picks. The deepest part of the rebuild was 2004 to 2007, with the club losing at least 93 games in each of those campaigns, but also getting a top-three pick in the draft for four straight years.

Those four picks were used on Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Hosmer. Those players combined with other youngsters like Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Pérez and Yordano Ventura to form a promising young core that the club was hoping to use to return to prominence.

Hosmer hit well on his way up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the game going into 2011. He made a strong debut that year and showcased some tendencies that would go on to define his career, namely an ability to avoid strikeouts but also an inability to get under the ball. He didn’t walk much either, so the ball was often in play, with his numbers swaying from year to year depending on whether he was finding holes or not.

He only struck out in 14.6% of his plate appearances in his rookie season, well below that year’s league average of 18.6%. But 49.7% of his balls in play were pounded into the ground, noticeably above the 44.4% league average. Regardless, he still hit 19 home runs and slashed .293/.334/.465 for a wRC+ of 113.

In 2012, he suffered through a sophomore slump, hitting just .232/.304/.359 for a wRC+ of 80. Part of that was batted ball luck, as his BABIP dropped to .255 from .314 the year prior. But his grounder rate also ticked up to 53.6% and he only hit 14 homers. These sorts of oscillations continued into the next few years. In 2013, his batting average was up at .302 and he hit 17 homers, but then those numbers dipped to .270 and just nine long balls in 2014.

Despite the challenges for Hosmer in the latter year, the club’s planned return to contention finally clicked in a big way. The Royals went all the way to the World Series that year, though they ultimate were felled by the Giants in seven games. Hosmer was a big part of that run, as he hit .351/.439/.544 that postseason.

Just about everything went right the next year, despite Hosmer still putting 52% of batted balls into the dirt. He also hit 18 homers and slashed .297/.363/.459 for a wRC+ of 124. The Royals went back to the World Series and finished the job this time, taking down the Mets in five games to hoist their first trophy since 1985.

The club slipped near .500 in the next two seasons as the up-and-down performance continued for Hosmer. His bat dipped closer to league average in 2016, though he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2017. His grounder rate was still very high at 55.6%, but he managed to park the ball over the fence 25 times and slashed .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135.

That was excellent timing for a career year, as that was his platform season for his first trip into free agency. Despite the inconsistent performance, the Padres took a chance on him, agreeing to an eight-year, $144MM deal. In addition to the offensive questions, his defensive metrics were never strong, in spite of his four Gold Glove awards while with the Royals. But the Padres had been undergoing their own period of insignificance, having just finished the seventh of what would eventually be nine straight losing seasons. The signing of Hosmer, the largest deal in franchise history at the time, was meant to signal an end of the rebuild and a return to relevance.

Unfortunately, the deal quickly went south, as Hosmer’s bat was around league average for most of his time in San Diego. From 2018 through 2021, he hit .264/.323/.415, translating to a wRC+ of 99. He was often the subject of trade rumors in that time, as the Friars looked to get out from under the deal. He was going to be sent to the Nationals as part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, but Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that allowed him to block the deal. That deal went through with Luke Voit taking Hosmer’s place, though Hoz was  flipped to the Red Sox instead, with that club not covered by his clause. The Padres ate the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum, and included a couple of prospects in order to get Jay Groome from Boston.

A stint on the injured list due to some back inflammation limited him to just 14 games with the Sox after the deal and they released him in the offseason to clear a path for prospect Triston Casas. The Cubs took a flier on Hosmer, which was essentially a free look since the Padres were still on the hook for his salary. But he hit poorly in 31 games as a Cub last year, producing a batting line of .234/.280/.330, and was released in May. He didn’t latch on elsewhere and has now decided to officially call it a career.

Though there were some ups and downs, Hosmer still has plenty of accolades on his ledger, including four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a World Series ring. He also won the World Baseball Classic with Team USA in 2017. He racked up 1,753 hits in his MLB career, including 322 doubles, 20 triples and 198 home runs. He scored 812 runs and drove in 893. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings just under $175MM. We at MLBTR salute Hosmer on a fine career and wish him the best in his next steps.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Gio Urshela

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The Red Sox have shown interest in free agent infielder Gio Urshela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo tipped his hat on X to other uses on that site, @iTalkStudiosYT and @GlenielGarcia2, but he downplayed the situation more than those outlets. Cotillo noted that no deal was close and that the Sox haven’t done anything to separate themselves from other interested clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Angels and Marlins.

Urshela, now 32, is coming off a frustrating season with the Angels. He hit just two home runs in 62 games before suffering a pelvic fracture that ended his season prematurely. Nonetheless, plenty of clubs have been interested in him based on his previous work, where he combined a bit of pop, low strikeout rates and defensive versatility.

From 2019 to 2022, he hit 54 home runs in 435 games while getting punched out in just 19.3% of his plate appearances. His 6.3% walk rate was subpar but he nonetheless managed to hit .290/.336/.463 over those years for a wRC+ of 119, indicating he was 19% better than league average. He has spent most of his career at third base but has also lined up at the other three infield spots and has one inning in left field.

The Sox have a set infield right now with Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom and Triston Casas lined up left to right, but there would be some sense in adding a quality multi-positional infielder like Urshela. Neither Devers nor Cases are considered especially strong defensively. Story has missed significant time in the past two seasons due to elbow surgery. Grissom has just 64 games of major league experience.

If Urshela were added, he could occasionally spell someone in that group or push them to the designated hitter slot. The club plans to use Masataka Yoshida as the DH fairly regularly but he can play the outfield on occasion as others get a rest.

Despite the logical fit, Cotillo downplays the urgency of a deal getting to completion, which suggests the Sox aren’t desperate to add him. If they don’t get something done with Urshela, their in-house options for a depth infielder are Enmanuel Valdéz, Bobby Dalbec, Pablo Reyes, David Hamilton and Romy González.

Red Sox, Brayan Bello Discussing Extension

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The Red Sox and right-hander Brayan Bello are actively engaged in contract discussions, Bello himself tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. While the 24-year-old righty didn’t put a specific timetable on when an agreement might come together, he suggested it’s possible that a deal could come together this spring.

Bello has long been viewed as a potential core piece for the Sox. Prior to making his big league debut in 2022, he was widely regarded as one of the Sox’ five to ten best prospects. He’d posted strong numbers in the upper minors and drawn praise from scouts for both a plus changeup and potentially plus heater, leading to projections as a future mid-rotation arm if all went according to plan.

Through the first season-plus of his career, Bello has pitched 214 1/3 innings of 4.37 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate is below the league average, but his 7.7% walk rate is better than average and his 56.1% ground-ball rate is among the best in the game for starting pitchers. That grounder rate and his command have led fielding-independent metrics to be a bit more bullish on the righty than his earned run average (4.11 FIP, 4.14 SIERA).

Bello’s four-seamer and more heavily used sinker have both been hit hard by MLB opponents, but that highly touted changeup has indeed stood out as a clear plus pitch for him; opponents have batted just .186 and slugged only .256 off the pitch in his career thus far. That’s been his only pitch with consistently strong results to date, but Bello sits 95.2 mph on his sinker and 95.7 mph on his four-seamer, so the velocity is certainly there for him to find success with his primary offerings. His 11% swinging-strike rate and 32.1% opponents’ chase rate are both right in line with the league-average marks, so there’s room for his strikeout rate to creep up a bit even in the absence of significant gains with his fastballs.

To this point in his career, Bello has amassed 1.082 years of major league service time. That puts him on track to be eligible for arbitration in the 2025-26 offseason and keeps him under Red Sox control through at least the 2028 season. Contract extensions for starting pitchers in this service bracket have been surprisingly rare in recent years, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. For a whole decade, Madison Bumgarner’s five-year, $35MM extension with the Giants back in April of 2012 stood as the record for this service class.

Braves righty Spencer Strider utterly shattered that precedent when he put pen to paper on a six-year, $75MM extension after just having surpassed one year of service (1.003). That extension came on the heels of an overpowering rookie season in which Strider finished second (to his own teammate, Michael Harris II) in National League Rookie of the Year voting. He’d logged 131 2/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA while fanning a borderline comical 38.3% of his opponents.

Bello’s performance to date doesn’t measure up to that dominance from Strider, and he’d likely fall well shy of that highwater mark on an extension of his own. Cincinnati right-hander Hunter Greene’s even more recent six-year, $53MM extension could be viewed as a more salient comp for Bello’s camp, though it’s not perfectly analogous in its own right. Greene’s rookie showing in 2022 featured 125 2/3 innings of 4.44 ERA ball, and when he signed his contract in April of 2023, he carried a career 4.42 ERA in 148 2/3 frames. His path to those results was quite different — overpowering triple-digit fastball, plus strikeout rate, average command and a pronounced fly-ball profile — but they roughly align with Bello’s run-prevention numbers. Greene, however, is generally regarded as having a higher ceiling.

Both Strider and Greene signed six-year deals with a club option for a seventh season. A six-year deal would carry Bello through the 2029 season, and a seventh-year club option would give the Sox control over Bello’s 2030 campaign. If the two sides were to deviate from that structure, age could be a factor; Greene’s deal began in his age-23 campaign and Strider’s in his age-24 season. The 2024 campaign will be Bello’s age-25 season. A six-year deal and club option would keep him under club control through his age-31 year and position him to become a free agent entering his age-32 season.

If Bello wants a faster path to free agency (e.g. five years and an option), that’d be understandable but would also surely mean taking a guarantee shy of Greene’s $53MM. Even on a six-year deal, he’d likely fall a bit shy of that mark. When comparing him to Greene, it also bears mentioning that Greene had a larger safety net as a former No. 2 overall pick who’d received a $7.25MM bonus in the draft. Bello signed as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic for a $28K bonus and doesn’t have that type of financial security already established.

Whatever shape talks take, the mere fact that Boston is actively engaged in contract talks with a core young player represents a change of pace. The team waited until Rafael Devers was a year from free agency before shelling out a massive 10-year, $313.5MM extension (on top of his existing $17.5MM salary for his final arb year). Extensions for Xander Bogaerts (six years, $120MM) and Chris Sale (five years, $145MM) both similarly came when they were established stars with more than five years of MLB service. Again looking to our Contract Tracker, the only other pre-arb extension the Sox have given out in the past decade was Garrett Whitlock’s four-year, $18.75MM deal. Prior to that, you’d have to go way back to Clay Buchholz in 2011 to find an extension for a player who’d yet to reach arbitration.

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy spoke earlier in camp about a need to begin exploring this type of contract earlier in his players’ careers (link via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). “Starting earlier, is probably a lesson,” Kennedy said just a few days ago. “We’ve not had a ton of success in extending our own guys. We have in the past and it’s been a great recipe for success. But I think starting those conversations earlier is a great idea.”

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