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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Twins To Add Top Prospect Alex Kirilloff To Playoff Roster

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In a surprise move, the Twins are set to promote top outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff for what would be his MLB debut during the first round of the postseason. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported last night that the move was being discussed, and both Seth Stohs of TwinsDaily.com and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link) hear that Kirilloff is indeed being added to the big league roster. His contract will need to be formally selected, although fellow rookie outfielder Brent Rooker is on the 10-day IL with a season-ending forearm fracture, so he could just be moved to the 45-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Alex Kirilloff | David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

Kirilloff, 22, was the No. 15 overall pick of the 2016 draft. He missed the 2017 due to Tommy John surgery but cemented himself as one of the game’s top 50 overall prospects when he laid waste to Class-A pitching in his 2018 return. The Pittsburgh native split that season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, posting a combined .348/.392/.578 slash with 20 homers, 44 doubles and seven triples in just 561 plate appearances. He followed that up with a .283/.343/.413 slash that was good for a 121 wRC+ in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Southern League last year.

The move to bring Kirilloff up could very well mean bad news for either Byron Buxton or Josh Donaldson, each of whom has been hobbled by injuries recently. Buxton showed concussion symptoms after being hit in the head by a pitch late last week, while Donaldson has again been dealing with calf issues. Both Buxton and Donaldson worked out with the club yesterday, and manager Rocco Baldelli tabbed it a “relatively good day” for both players.

If and when Kirilloff is added to the roster there’s no guarantee he’ll draw a start in the series. Even if Buxton is sidelined, the club could lean on Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave and Max Kepler across the outfield. Kirilloff, as is the case with that trio, is a left-handed bat, so he wouldn’t even necessarily draw a platoon-based date with Houston lefty Framber Valdez. At the very least, however, he’d give the club an intriguing lefty bat to pinch-hit. Kirilloff has experience at all three outfield positions and at first base as well, so Baldelli could work him into the mix in a variety of ways.

Kirilloff won’t get any big league service time for appearing on the Major League roster in the playoffs, but his promotion only further confirms that he’s on the cusp of an audition as an everyday piece in Minnesota. The only question is just where he’ll slot in. The Twins locked Kepler up on a five-year extension just last year and control Buxton through the 2022 season. Rosario, meanwhile, is only controlled through 2021. Between fellow top 100 prospect Trevor Larnach and the aforementioned Rooker, Minnesota is well stocked with corner outfield bats that are MLB-ready or quite close to it.

Quick Hits: Padres, M’s, Twins, White Sox

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It’s possible Dinelson Lamet or Mike Clevinger could start Game 1 of the Padres’ series against the Cardinals on Wednesday, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. It’s fantastic news for the Padres, who saw Lamet go down with right biceps tightness last Friday, while Clevinger suffered a sprained right elbow last Wednesday. At least in Clevinger’s case, it initially didn’t seem he would be ready for the start of the playoffs, but it now looks as if the Padres’ top starters (along with Zach Davies) will be ready when they begin their first postseason series since 2006.

  • The  Mariners will enter the upcoming offseason with a focus on upgrading their bullpen, per general manager Jerry Dipoto (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). Seattle would “like to add three or four guys down there that can stabilize that group and give us some certainty as we move toward the end of a game,” acccording to Dipoto. The Mariners, who finished with a 27-33 record, kept their long-running playoff drought going this year thanks in part to a weak relief corps that finished last in the AL in ERA (5.92).
  • Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson (calf) and center fielder Byron Buxton (concussion) had “a relatively good day” Monday, according to manager Rocco Baldelli (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Donaldson battled calf problems in the past, but that didn’t stop the Twins from signing him to a four-year, $92MM contract in the offseason. Further calf troubles have held Donaldson to 28 games this year, though, and he hasn’t played since Sept. 25. Buxton, who also has a history of injuries, only played in 39 regular-season games. However, even without full campaigns from either of those two, the Twins won 36 games en route to a second straight AL Central title. They should be even stronger if the two are ready for playoff action.
  • White Sox left fielder Eloy Jimenez expects to be available for the team’s Game 1 playoff showdown in Oakland on Tuesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com was among those to tweet. Jimenez hasn’t played since Sept. 24 because of a mid-foot sprain, but when he was able to take the field, he was one of Chicago’s most valuable hitters. As a .296/.332/.559 hitter in 226 plate appearances, the 23-year-old Jimenez helped the White Sox to their first playoff berth since 2008.

AL Notes: Cabrera, Choo, Twins

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Miguel Cabrera’s contract extension with the Tigers runs through 2023, and the legendary hitter made clear he’s hoping to play out the deal. “I’ve got three years on my contract,” the 37-year-old told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) when asked how much longer he planned to play. “I don’t know what’s going to happen after my contract’s over. I’m focused on my contract and three more years and we’ll see what happens.” That’s not too surprising, given that Cabrera’s still due another $102MM after this season (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 vesting option). The future Hall of Famer discussed the injuries that have weighed him down in recent years, as well as his hope of returning to first base after serving exclusively as a designated hitter this season. His full interview is a worthwhile read for Detroit fans.

More out of the American League

  • Rangers designated hitter Shin-soo Choo is hoping to play in 2021, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). The 38-year-old is wrapping up a seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas. A longtime productive hitter, Choo has taken a big step back offensively this season as he nears free agency. He’s amassed just a .229/.317/.394 line. It’s the first year Choo has been below-average at the dish since he established himself as an everyday player back in 2008.
  • The Twins saw a pair of key players leave last night’s game with injuries. Third baseman Josh Donaldson departed with a right calf cramp, while center fielder Byron Buxton suffered a head contusion, per Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Neither player is in tonight’s starting lineup. Ehire Adrianza stepped in at the hot corner yesterday, while Jake Cave came in to man center. Donaldson’s situation is particularly notable; he’s got a lengthy history of calf troubles and only just returned from an IL stint due to a calf strain. Buxton, meanwhile, was hit in the head by a Lucas Sims pitch, prompting his early exit. Minnesota is a game up on both the Indians and White Sox in the AL Central. [UPDATE: Buxton is dealing with mild concussion symptoms, relays Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press. Donaldson is feeling better today and being held out as a precautionary measure, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com].
  • In better injury news for Minnesota, second baseman Luis Arraez has been activated from the injured list in advance of this evening’s contest. Arraez garnered some Rookie of the Year support last year thanks to his precocious bat-to-ball skills, as he hit .334/.399/.439 over 366 plate appearances. The 23-year-old hasn’t been as productive in his sophomore effort, but he remains one of the league’s toughest players to strike out.

Twins Activate Buxton, Pineda; Donaldson To Be Activated On Wednesday

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3:37PM: The Twins officially announced that Buxton and Pineda have been reinstated.  LaMonte Wade Jr. was optioned to the alternate training site in a corresponding move, and righty Juan Minaya has been designated for assignment.

9:07AM: The Twins didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline but will still receive some key additions this week. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that center fielder Byron Buxton will be activated from the injured list today, while right-hander Michael Pineda will return from his reduced 60-game PED suspension tonight as well. Third baseman Josh Donaldson will be reinstated from the IL tomorrow, Hayes adds.

The Twins have faceplanted over the past week, dropping six straight games to fall to third place in the American League Central. They’re still in playoff position but are now slotted in as a No. 7 seed under the expanded format, whereas they’d previously been in the mix for the top overall seed in the American League. There’s still time to right the ship, of course, particularly with six more games against the first-place White Sox and three more against the second-place Indians still on the schedule.

Buxton began the season in a 1-for-15 slump but has hit .264 with five homers and a .566 slugging percentage in 15 games since. Unfortunately, he’s only drawn one walk on the year, leaving him with an ugly slash line of .221/.225/.456. He’s been out since Aug. 20 due to shoulder inflammation, but the hope will be that he can continue his power output while showing a bit more discipline to boost that OBP in a meaningful way. Buxton’s glovework remains sound as ever; he’s checked in at +5 Defensive Runs Saved and a +3.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 170 innings.

Pineda, meanwhile, will make his season debut when he’s reinstated from the restricted list. The Twins re-signed the big righty to a two-year, $20MM contract over the winter, knowing full well he’d need to miss 39 games under the 60-game PED ban he received late last year. Of course, at the time, the expectation was that those 39 games would represent just 24 percent of the 162-game schedule — not 65 percent of a 60-game schedule.

The 31-year-old Pineda was a key member of the Twins’ staff prior to last year’s suspension, logging 146 innings with a 4.01 ERA and 4.02 FIP. He’ll join a rotation mix that also includes Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Randy Dobnak.

As for Donaldson, he’s played just seven games this year due to a calf strain — an injury that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently said the team approached in a deliberately conservative manner given the slugger’s history with calf issues. Donaldson, who inked a four-year, $92MM deal with the Twins in the offseason, opened the season in a 4-for-22 skid, though he belted 37 homers with an even .900 OPS for the Braves a season ago. Marwin Gonzalez has received the bulk of playing time at third base in Donaldson’s absence and struggled at the plate (.225/.299/.324). He’ll likely return to a super-utility role when Donaldson is activated.

AL Injury Notes: Twins, Jays, Kennedy, Hernandez, Odor

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Some notes on prominent injury situations around the American League:

  • Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli provided encouraging updates on a trio of injured players, via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter links). Star third baseman Josh Donaldson and center fielder Byron Buxton are seemingly nearing their returns, with each scheduled to play in an intrasquad game at the team’s alternate training site this afternoon. Right-hander Cody Stashak is evidently a bit further behind, but he’s lining up for a bullpen session soon, Park reports. If all goes well, he could be back on the active roster shortly thereafter.
  • Blue Jays’ closer Ken Giles will throw a live batting practice session tomorrow, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). An impending free agent, Giles has been limited to two appearances this season by a forearm strain. Fellow right-handed reliever Jordan Romano, who looked on his way to breaking through as one of the game’s top strikeout artists before going down with a strained finger, has not yet progressed to throwing, Nicholson-Smith adds. The Toronto organization hopes he’ll be able to return this year, though.
  • Royals’ reliever Ian Kennedy is headed to the 10-day injured list with a left calf strain, the club announced. He’ll have an MRI tomorrow, reports Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter link). So continues a nightmarish season for the 35-year-old, who has allowed 17 runs (14 earned) in 14 innings. 2020 is the final year of Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM contract.
  • The Red Sox are sending reliever Darwinzon Hernández to the 10-day injured list with a sprained AC joint, via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). The hard-throwing southpaw missed the first three weeks of the season after testing positive for COVID-19, limiting him to three appearances. They’ve been more of the same for Hernández, who continues to rack up otherworldly strikeout totals while issuing an alarming number of walks.
  • Rougned Odor is headed to the Rangers’ 10-day injured list with an eye infection, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). In his stead, shortstop Elvis Andrus is returning from an IL stint of his own. The Rangers discussed an Odor deal with the Red Sox earlier today, but the underperforming second baseman will instead remain in Arlington.

Twins Place Mitch Garver, Byron Buxton On Injured List

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4:50pm: The Twins don’t seem overly concerned about Buxton, who’s dealing with soreness, manager Rocco Baldelli said (via Park). Baldelli added Buxton’s surgically repaired labrum is in good shape.

3:55pm: The Twins have placed catcher Mitch Garver (right intercostal strain) and center fielder Byron Buxton (left shoulder inflammation) on the 10-day injured list, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. In other moves, they selected catcher Ryan Jeffers and recalled both righty Zack Littell and outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr.

Already down third baseman Josh Donaldson for the past three weeks, the Twins are now missing a couple more regulars in Garver and Buxton. But Garver, who was quietly one of the majors’ elite offensive performers in 2019, has started slowly this year with a .154/.262/.212 line and just one home run in 61 plate appearances. Fortunately for Minnesota, backup Alex Avila, who has played frequently thanks to Garver’s struggles, has gotten on base at a 41.5 percent clip through 41 PA, though he hasn’t hit for average (.200) or power (one homer).

With Garver down, Jeffers will join Avila to make up the Twins’ top two catchers. Jeffers, 23, joined the Twins as a second-round pick in 2018 and has posted great numbers at all four minor league levels at which he has played (rookie ball, Single-A, High-A, Double-A). MLB.com ranks Jeffers as the club’s sixth-best prospect, crediting him for his all-around game and positing that he looks like the Twins’ “catcher of the future.”

Buxton’s injury looks rather troubling when you consider he underwent season-ending surgery on the same shoulder last September. There’s no word this time on whether he’ll require an absence of more than 10 days. Like Garver, Buxton has not begun well at the plate (.221/.225/.456 with five HRs in 71 attempts). The defensive standout has once fared splendidly in that area, though, and has played center in every Twins game over the past couple weeks. Max Kepler, Jake Cave and Wade took the reins there last season when Buxton went down. They’re candidates to do so again now.

Byron Buxton Expects To Be Ready For Season

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JULY 15: Buxton said Wednesday he expects to be ready for the Twins’ opener, per Hayes.

July 14: Buxton has been diagnosed with a mid-foot sprain, the team announced to reporters at Target Field today (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park). He’s listed as day-to-day for the time being.

July 13, 7:39pm: Buxton’s initial exam didn’t reveal any serious problems, according to manager Rocco Baldelli (via Hayes). They’re cautiously optimistic Buxton will be OK.

6:47pm: Buxton’s having imaging done on a left foot injury, tweets Hayes, who adds that the Twins should have more information on his status Tuesday.

6:38pm: Twins center fielder Byron Buxton was carted off the field Monday after suffering an apparent injury to his left ankle, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Buxton departed after possibly getting “a spike caught in the turf,” Hayes writes. Further details aren’t available yet.

Should this turn out to be a major injury, it would be the latest in an unfortunately long line of them for Buxton. The 26-year-old’s health issues helped limit him to 115 of a possible 324 regular-season games from 2018-19. Buxton only took part in 87 games last year, which ended for him when he underwent left shoulder surgery in September. That procedure prevented Buxton from participating in the Twins’ ALDS matchup versus the Yankees.

Thanks in part to injuries, Buxton’s career perhaps hasn’t gone to plan since the Twins drafted him second overall in 2012. But there’s no denying that Buxton has shown immense promise at times. The defensively brilliant speedster was a 3.6-fWAR player in 2017 – the lone season thus far in which he has amassed 100-plus games – and logged 2.7 fWAR in 2019 despite missing almost half the campaign. He slashed a career-best .262/.314/.513 (111 wRC+) with 10 homers and 14 steals over 295 plate appearances then, also chipping in 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-8.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.

To their credit, he Twins did more than stay afloat without Buxton a season ago. And at least a few of the center field options they used in his stead – Max Kepler, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are still on hand. That said, it would be optimal for the team to have Buxton in the mix. The hope right now is that he’s not dealing with yet another significant problem.

Why The Twins Could Trade A Slugger This Winter

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While some clubs have struggled to find continuity in their outfield — the Cardinals, Padres and Blue Jays come to mind — the Twins have enjoyed a rather reliable trio in recent years. True, injuries to Byron Buxton have frequently held him out of the lineup, but the general expectation over the past three to four seasons has been that Buxton would be flanked by left fielder Eddie Rosario and right fielder Max Kepler. Since 2016, Rosario ranks fourth among MLB left fielders in innings. Kepler ranks seventh in right-field innings. Both would likely rank higher on those leaderboards were it not for occasional stints manning center field while Buxton mended from injuries.

And yet, as much of the team’s young core has been locked up on long-term deals — Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano are now all signed through at least 2023 — Rosario finds himself nearing free agency. The 27-year-old slugger agreed to a $7.75MM salary this winter and is controlled through 2021. There have reportedly been some talks between the two sides in recent years, but nothing has come together. Other key members of the Twins core remain unsigned (e.g. Buxton, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers) but are controlled an additional year beyond Rosario.

Moreover, the Twins now find themselves with a pair of corner prospects pushing for a spot in the big leagues sooner than later. Former first-round picks Alex Kirilloff (2016) and Trevor Larnach (2018) both rank comfortably among the game’s best overall prospects and both found success in Double-A in 2019. The former returned from a wrist injury to hit .283/.343/.413 (121 wRC+) through 411 plate appearances, while the latter hit .295/.387/.455 in 181 PAs — good for a 148 wRC+ that was an exact match for his mark through 361 PAs in Class-A Advanced.

Both Kirilloff (No. 9 overall on Keith Law’s prospect rankings at The Athletic) and Larnach (No. 45 at Baseball America) are 22-year-old corner outfielders with bats that have been deemed close to MLB-ready. Both would’ve likely advanced to Triple-A in 2020 had the season begun under normal circumstances, and it’d be reasonable to think that either could’ve made his MLB debut this year. Each notched an OPS north of 1.100 during brief Spring Training showings (30 PAs for Larnach, 22 for Kirilloff). Beyond that pairing, Brent Rooker posted a 139 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He’s not as highly regarded and may be more of a first base or DH type in the long run, but Rooker’s been playing left field regularly since being drafted 35th overall in 2017.

It’s unlikely that any of those prospects would’ve been plugged directly into the Major League lineup to begin the season under any circumstance, but it’s nevertheless notable that Rosario’s name crept up in trade rumblings this winter. Had a deal come together, the Twins could’ve added a one-year stopgap, turned to Marwin Gonzalez as a primary outfielder and/or given Jake Cave an opportunity to establish himself.  As it turned out, retaining Rosario only left the club with enhanced depth.

At some point in the near future, the Twins will have to ask whether they’re better off paying Rosario another raise in arbitration — though it remains to be seen how much of an increase he’ll get over his current salary next time — or whether some combination of Kirilloff, Larnach, Cave and Rooker can provide similar or greater value at a fraction of the price. Minnesota only has $55.5MM on the 2021 books as of this writing, so it’s not as if payroll is an immediate issue, but Rosario’s game isn’t without its flaws, either.

A former high-end prospect himself, Rosario has never demonstrated much plate discipline, but his swing-happy tendencies revved up to new levels last year. Jeff McNeil was the only qualified hitter in the Majors last year who swung at a higher percentage of pitches than Rosario’s 59.1 (although he didn’t chase out of the zone nearly as much as Rosario and had a markedly better contact rate on pitches in the zone). On top of that, only three qualified hitters chased balls out of the zone more than Rosario.

To his credit, Rosario has greatly improved his bat-to-ball skills, cutting his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in 2016 to 14.6 percent in 2019. But Rosario’s penchant for swinging at pitches out of the zone leads to far more weak contact than one would expect from a player who hit 32 home runs in 2019. His 89.1 mph average exit velocity ranked 123rd of 250 qualified hitters, per Statcast, and his 36 percent hard-hit rate ranked 166th in that same grouping. Despite his clear power, Rosario hasn’t ranked higher than the 34th percentile of big league hitters in terms of hard-hit rate in any of the past four seasons. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) has hovered around league average or a bit below.

This isn’t intended as a piece meant to disparage Rosario, who has proven himself to be a useful corner outfielder. He’s averaged 27.6 homers over the past three seasons, ranks seventh in the Majors in outfield assists in that time and, with the exception of a 2019 season during which he played through a notable ankle injury, he’s graded out as a reliable and at times well-above-average defender.

A rangy left fielder with a strong arm, consistently solid batting averages and 25- to 30-homer pop is a fine player — even if he comes with some on-base deficiencies. But when corner outfield options are typically plentiful in free agency and there are a pair of top-tier prospects looming in the upper minors, it’s easy to see the front office debating Rosario’s future. Rosario isn’t going to fetch a top-of-the-rotation arm in a trade given his rising price, questionable OBP and waning club control, but the Twins will still surely ponder whether their resources can be better allotted elsewhere soon — if they haven’t already.

Some may argue that Buxton or even Kepler are the better pieces for the Twins to consider moving from the current outfield group. But Buxton’s 80-grade glove and speed are harder to replace, and he’s controlled an additional year while currently earning less than half of Rosario’s salary. In terms of ceiling, he’s the highest of the bunch even in spite of his frequent injuries. Kepler’s extension, meanwhile, allows the Twins to control him for another five years and $38MM — the final season of which is a $10MM club option.

The alternative, of course, is to eventually look to package some of the aforementioned young talent to address other areas of need — likely high-end rotation help. The Twins’ offseason quest to bolster the starting staff ended up with more quantity-over-quality outcome than many expected, as the club missed on its top targets and instead pivoted to a surprising four-year deal with Josh Donaldson. Part of the reason they weren’t able to add an impact starter was the simple fact that virtually none were available in trade, but that could change down the road.

With three former top 40 picks thriving in the upper minors, two of them top 100 picks, and a long-entrenched mix of quality regulars at the MLB level, it seems inevitable that Minnesota’s outfield depth will undergo some form of reshaping in the near future. (None of this even mentions 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis — a shortstop who some feel is destined to end up in center field instead.) Of course, this is the type of logjam that rebuilding clubs look forward to eventually trying to manage, and it serves as a reminder that despite their current lack of prototypical “ace,” the Twins are well-positioned for another run of competitive years in the American League Central.

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