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Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

Astros Designate Kaleb Ort For Assignment

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The Astros announced they’ve designated reliever Kaleb Ort for assignment. That opened the 40-man roster spot to finalize their three-year free agent deal with Tatsuya Imai.

Ort landed in Houston on a waiver claim from Baltimore early in the 2024 season. He turned in a 2.55 earned run average across 22 games the rest of the way. Ort made a career-high 49 appearances last year but was unable to maintain the numbers he showed in a smaller sample. He allowed 4.89 earned runs per nine across 46 innings.

The righty missed bats at an above-average clip and struck out more than a quarter of opposing hitters. That came alongside a near-14% walk rate, however, well above the 4.3% mark he’d posted in his MLB work a year earlier. Ort also allowed a higher than average home run rate for a third consecutive season. While manager Joe Espada preferred to use him in the middle innings, he was pressed into a few higher-leverage spots when Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa were lost to injury in August. That pushed Bryan Abreu into the closing role and left Ort as one of their more established right-handed setup arms.

It unfortunately didn’t take long before Ort joined his bullpen mates on the injured list. He went down with elbow inflammation at the beginning of September. That knocked him out for the rest of the season. There’s no indication he won’t be ready for Spring Training, but he was already on the roster bubble. Ort is out of minor league options and approaching his 34th birthday.

Houston has Hader, Abreu, Sousa, Steven Okert and Bryan King in the season-opening bullpen, assuming health. Enyel De Los Santos and Nate Pearson are out of options and near-locks to break camp. Pearson signed a $1.35MM free agent deal, while De Los Santos is guaranteed a $1.6MM salary after avoiding arbitration. There wouldn’t have been much flexibility for in-season maneuvering if they also carried Ort. He’ll be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. Ort has less than three years of MLB service and no prior outright assignments, so the Astros could keep him around as a non-roster invitee if he gets through waivers unclaimed.

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai

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The Astros officially announced the signing of right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a three-year contract that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. It’s reportedly a $54MM guarantee for the NPB star, who’ll collect a $2MM signing bonus and $16MM salary next year. He’s owed respective $18MM salaries between 2027-28. Imai, a client of the Boras Corporation, would reportedly escalate his 2027 salary by $2MM apiece at reaching 80, 90 and 100 innings next year. His ’28 salary would also climb by $1MM at each of those thresholds, meaning the total value can jump another $9MM.

Meanwhile, the Lions will receive a posting fee based on Imai’s $54MM guarantee. The current system for international postings gives the original club 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything over $50MM. That works out to $9.975MM, so the Astros are on the hook for just under $64MM between the contract’s guaranteed money and the posting fee. If Imai opts out next season, Houston will have committed $27.975MM for one year of his services. The Astros would also owe a 15% posting fee to the Lions on any escalators that Imai unlocks if he doesn’t opt out.

Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.

We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.

Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.

That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.

In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee.

At the time of his posting, a $150MM deal seemed like a real possibility. These days, teams value youth and upside and are willing to pay a premium to get it. Recent offseasons have seen players like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sign for over a decade and at least $500MM in guaranteed money. Among Asian players, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee came to the majors after their age-24 seasons and earned $100M+ deals. Imai is several years older than Yamamoto was when he signed and has a shorter track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm. While he was never going to match Yamamoto’s deal, Imai’s year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.

Houston’s interest was not widely known, though it makes sense that they wanted another starting pitcher. Longtime ace Framber Valdez is currently a free agent. The team has had some discussions with Valdez’s camp, though the expectation is that he will sign elsewhere on a pricier contract. Hunter Brown was phenomenal in 2025, totaling 185 1/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. That figure was third-best among qualified starters, trailing only Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. He also posted an 85th-percentile strikeout rate and a 77th-percentile groundball rate. Altogether, he was worth 4.6 fWAR and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll return as the staff ace in 2026.

Behind Brown, the rotation looks shaky. Cristian Javier currently projects as the No. 2 starter. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 538 career innings, but he pitched just 71 2/3 innings from 2024-25 due to Tommy John surgery. In just 37 innings this year, Javier had a 4.62 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. He is under contract through 2027. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own injury troubles, pitching just 103 innings in the past four years and missing 2023-24 entirely. Even if he performs well in 2026, the team will monitor his workload carefully. The recently-acquired Mike Burrows will play some role. He had a 3.94 ERA in 96 innings this year with an impressive 16.4% K-BB rate, though his overall track record is fairly minimal.

The addition of Imai gives the Astros a durable No. 2 or 3 starter at an affordable rate. It remains to be seen how his strikeout and groundball potential will translate against major-league hitting, though the club is surely hoping he can maintain his performance from Japan. The signing brings the Astros’ projected payroll to $242MM, according to RosterResource. The club was a second-time luxury tax payor this year and is hoping to avoid paying it for a third time. The first luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244MM, so the club will likely need to shed payroll if it wants to add to other areas of the roster.

With Imai now off the board, any clubs in need of a starter will need to look elsewhere. Dylan Cease was the top free agent pitcher entering the offseason and has since signed with the Blue Jays. Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, and Lucas Giolito are still available in free agency. Valdez and Suarez are front-of-the-rotation options, while Gallen, Bassitt and Giolito are cheaper, mid-rotation arms.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Astros and Imai had agreed to a deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first on the three-year term with opt-outs after the first two seasons. Heyman reported the $54MM guarantee and $9MM in escalators at 80-100 innings, while Ronald Blum of The Associated Press was first on the signing bonus and specific escalator breakdown.

Latest On Edward Cabrera’s Market

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A pair of potential suitors may have fallen out of the Edward Cabrera race. Houston and Baltimore are no longer trade candidates for the talented right-hander, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson adds that Miami doesn’t want to sell short on Cabrera in a deal.

The Marlins’ starting rotation has been a frequent subject of trade rumblings throughout the offseason. Reports emerged in early December that the club was listening to offers on all of its starters, outside of Eury Perez. Sandy Alcantara has been the subject of frequent rumors the past few seasons, while Cabrera and Ryan Weathers have been floated as possible trade chips recently. It would take a massive offer to land Alcantara, notes Jackson.

The Orioles were specifically linked to Cabrera a few weeks back. The club has been connected to almost every high-end name in free agency and on the trade market, from Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez to Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was able to land a significant rotation upgrade last week, flipping several prospects and a draft pick for right-hander Shane Baz. Elias has said the organization will continue working to strengthen the rotation, though the recent trade might have ended their Cabrera pursuit, given the capital it took to pry Baz from Tampa Bay.

Baltimore and Miami joined forces on a deal at the 2024 trade deadline that worked out for both teams. The Marlins sent lefty Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby. Rogers broke out as Baltimore’s top starter this past season, while Stowers delivered an All-Star campaign with his new team.

Houston has been in the market for young, controllable starting pitching this offseason. The club’s rotation was destroyed by injuries in 2025, with Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter all needing Tommy John surgery and Luis Garcia going down with another elbow injury. With Valdez hitting free agency, the Astros entered the offseason with Hunter Brown and a slew of unproven options to fill out the staff.

Just like the Orioles, the Astros made a notable move to address their pitching needs last week, acquiring Mike Burrows from the Pirates in a three-team trade headlined by Brandon Lowe. Similar to Baltimore, Houston spent significant prospect capital to land a young starter. Outfielder Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito went to the Rays in the deal. Melton was among the organization’s top prospects, while Brito was an up-and-coming name, albeit with minimal professional experience. Parting with both Melton and Brito to land Burrows likely affected Houston’s ability to put together a Cabrera package.

After periods of brilliance frequently cut short by injuries, Cabrera finally put together an extended stretch of strong results in 2025. The 27-year-old recorded a 3.53 ERA across a career-high 137 2/3 innings this past season. Cabrera maintained a solid 25.8% strikeout rate while pushing his walk rate into single digits for the first time.

Cabrera went down with an elbow sprain in early September, but returned in the final week of the season for a pair of outings. The brief comeback could’ve been an audition for trade suitors, showing interested teams that Cabrera was good to go for 2026. The righty is under team control through 2028. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cabrera to earn $3.7MM in arbitration. An acquiring team would have him for three seasons at a reasonable cost.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Mets Sign Jorge Polanco, And The Braves, Blue Jays And Royals Make Moves – listen here
  • Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
  • An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images

Astros Notes: Valdez, Meyers, Roster Needs

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Houston general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara, the Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) on Friday about several matters related to the Astros’ offseason, and there was naturally plenty of talk about the big three-team, six-player trade between the Astros, Pirates, and Rays.  The Astros’ end of the deal saw first-year outfielder Jacob Melton and minor league righty Anderson Brito dealt to Tampa Bay, while Houston’s rotation was bolstered by the addition of right-hander Mike Burrows.

Obtaining a controllable and talented young arm like Burrows is a nice get for the Astros, even at the substantial cost of two notable youngsters from Houston’s farm system.  As Brown put it, “it’s not easy to part ways with successful pieces that you have that are high-end prospects.  But when there are a lot of teams that need starters, that’s where the market is.  A lot of teams need starters, and so you don’t want to lose out.  So you have to get creative and pull from your depth and maybe fill that spot.”

Burrows might just be the start of Houston’s work on this front, as Brown said his club “will definitely pursue more pitching.”  This pursuit has included at least some discussion with Framber Valdez about a potential reunion, but Brown naturally didn’t divulge any details beyond saying that he’s had “some back and forth” with Valdez’s camp.

This is the first indication of any talks between Valdez and the Astros since Brown’s season wrap-up presser at the end of September, when he stated that the two sides would remain in touch.  While Brown’s latest comment doesn’t technically provide any new information on this front, it is somewhat notable that Valdez might still remain on Houston’s radar even in a slight fashion, as it has widely been assumed that he’ll be signing elsewhere.

The Astros are known to be looking to avoid paying the luxury tax for the third consecutive season, and Valdez is likely to command a deal far too pricey for Houston’s liking.  MLBTR projected Valdez for a five-year, $150MM contract, and such teams as the Orioles, Mets, and Giants have been linked to the two-time All-Star.  That interest hasn’t resulted in a deal yet, however, and some obstacles remain for Valdez with any of those suitors — the Giants and Mets reportedly aren’t keen on long-term contracts for pitchers, and the O’s already made a massive free agent strike by signing Pete Alonso.

As long as Valdez remains unsigned, there’s still a chance a deal could be worked out between the two sides.  It costs Brown nothing to check in with Valdez out of just due diligence, just in case some common ground could be found or if Valdez’s asking price drops.  That being said, the far likelier scenario is that Valdez will be on another team’s roster in 2026, and the Astros will look to add pitching via lower-cost signings, and/or trades.

Brown said he is open to all possibilities on the trade front, though he again suggested that the Astros weren’t necessarily in a rush to trade either from their crowded infield, or known trade target Jake Meyers.  Speaking of Meyers specifically, Brown said “it’s a really good deal, we may consider it.  But right now, Meyers is going to be a guy for us that’s going to play center field and it looks like he’s the frontline guy as of today.”

The fact that the Astros moved Melton is notable, as he was thought to be a potential heir apparent in center field if Meyers was dealt.  Brown said Houston was ultimately comfortable dealing Melton due to the presence of Meyers and Zach Cole as center field options, plus Lucas Spence and Joseph Sullivan further down the minor league pipeline.  Beyond Meyers, Cole is the only member of that group with any MLB experience, and Cole’s resume consists of 15 games with the Astros in 2025.

Beyond the rotation, Brown said the Astros are also looking for relief pitching and a backup catcher.  Victor Caratini remains available in free agency, though the expectation is that Caratini will be able to find more of a regular catching job with another team than he would be rejoining the Astros to share time with Yainer Diaz behind the plate.

Astros, Pirates, Rays Finalize Three-Team Trade Sending Brandon Lowe To Pittsburgh, Mike Burrows To Houston, Jacob Melton To Tampa

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The Astros, Pirates and Rays have completed a big three-team trade. Each team’s end of the deal breaks down as follows…

The Bucs have a full 40-man roster and will have to make two corresponding moves, which they have not announced yet.

Lowe is the biggest name of the bunch here. The 31-year-old has spent the past eight seasons with the Rays. In that time, he has established himself as one of the better power-hitting second basemen in the sport. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has hit 151 home runs. Among primary second basemen, only Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve are ahead of him in that category, with Semien having 178 homers in that span and Altuve 158.

That power production from Lowe is even more impressive when one considers that he did that in about one thousand fewer plate appearances than Altuve and about 1,600 shy of Semien. But that also demonstrates the main knock on Lowe, which is that he has had trouble staying on the field. Due to various injuries over the years, he has only twice been able to play more than 107 games in a season. Lower back problems have been a frequent issue but he’s also hit the injured list due to a right shin bone bruise, a right triceps contusion, a right patella fracture, a right oblique strain, left oblique tightness and left ankle/foot tendinitis.

Earlier in his career, the Rays moved Lowe between second base and the outfield corners. Presumably because of the injuries, he hasn’t been sent out to the grass since 2022. He has been almost exclusively a second baseman lately, with a few stints at first as well. His second base defense was once around league average but seems to have slipped as he has battled those injuries and pushed into his 30s. He was given a minus-13 grade from Outs Above Average this year and minus-14 from Defensive Runs Saved.

There’s also a bit of concern from his declining plate discipline. He has always had a high strikeout rate but offset that earlier in his career with solid walk rates. That hasn’t been the case lately, as Lowe walked in fewer than 8% of his plate appearances in each of the past two years.

The power has still been enough to carry the profile. Dating back to the start of 2024, he has 52 home runs and a .251/.309/.475 batting line. That translates to a 118 wRC+, indicating his offense has been 18% above league average overall. Despite the defensive shortcomings, FanGraphs credited him with four wins above replacement in 241 games over that two-year span. He is going to make $11.5MM in 2026 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

Though Lowe is an imperfect player, he will be a big upgrade for the Pirates. They had almost no offensive prowess to speak of in 2025. Spencer Horwitz was the only Pirate to produce a wRC+ higher than 101.

While the Bucs had a clear lack of offense, they have a huge pile of pitching talent. Paul Skenes is the clear headliner but they have plenty of other exciting young arms in the mix. After several years struggling to return to contention, the Bucs came into this winter looking to get aggressive in upgrading the offense.

They made some spirited attempts in free agency, making competitive offers to Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor before they re-signed with the Phillies and Mariners respectively. Even if the Bucs had succeeded in signing one of those guys or someone else, it always seemed likely that they would use their stockpile of young arms to bolster the offense. This is the second such trade of the offseason for the Bucs. They sent Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox earlier this month as part of a five-player swap, with outfielder Jhostynxon García coming back to Pittsburgh.

Lowe could jump in as the regular second baseman. The Bucs used guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales there in 2025 without anyone taking firm hold of the position. Given Lowe’s age, injury issues and defensive shortcomings, it’s also possible he sees significant time in the designated hitter slot. That would leave open some playing time for those guys, though Triolo and Gonzalez could also factor in at shortstop or third base.

Since Lowe is going into the final year of his deal, he’s just a one-year upgrade for the Pirates, though it’s possible they could make him a qualifying offer at season’s end if he has a healthy and productive campaign.

They had added yet another guy to their position player mix with Mangum, though he’s not likely to be a massive lineup boost. He got into 118 games with the Rays this year as a speed-and-defense guy with a contact-based approach. His 15% strikeout rate was lower than league average but he also only drew walks at a 4% clip and hit only three home runs. His .296/.330/.368 batting line translated to a 95 wRC+ but he stole 27 bases and got strong defensive grades in all three outfield slots.

Mangum has exactly one year of service time, meaning he’s at least two years from arbitration and five years from free agency. He also has a full slate of options, so he could be sent to Triple-A to serve as depth. The Bucs should have Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in two outfield spots. One spot is available with guys like García, Jack Suwinski, Marco Luciano and others in the mix. Mangum could push for a regular role or a gig as a fourth outfielder, or he could end up in Triple-A, as mentioned. A lengthy optional assignment could delay his trajectory to arbitration and/or free agency.

The Bucs also picked up a reliever in Montgomery. The southpaw tossed 55 2/3 innings for the Rays over the past two years, allowing 5.01 earned runs per nine. He struck out 32.5% of batters faced and got grounders on 45% of balls in play but also gave out walks at a big 13% clip. He has a high-90s fastball, as well as a cutter and a slider, but control is clearly an issue.

He is also optionable and can be controlled for five years, so the Bucs can see if they can help him harness his stuff, without having to commit a big league roster spot. Pittsburgh’s southpaw relief contingent is currently headlined by Gregory Soto, with Evan Sisk and now Montgomery also in the mix.

In order to get those players, the Pirates are making a notable subtraction from their rotation. Burrows, 26, was an 11th-round pick and spent many years in the middle range of Pittsburgh’s top 30 prospects. However, he has increased his stock lately. He has thus far tossed 99 1/3 innings in his big league career with a 3.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 41.9% ground ball rate. He has averaged in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a slider, curveball and changeup. He has also thrown 83 2/3 innings in the minors over the past two seasons with a 4.20 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.

The Pirates are hoping that their trades this offseason have bolstered their lineup and bullpen, while the rotation could still be a strength despite the subtractions. Even without Oviedo and Burrows, they still have Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington and others in the mix. Jared Jones is still recovering from Tommy John surgery but should rejoin that group at some point in 2026.

Burrows is a sensible addition for the Astros. Injuries tore apart their rotation in 2026. Luis Garcia required yet another elbow surgery and was jettisoned from the roster. Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter all required Tommy John surgery during the 2025 season and are facing lengthy absences.

In addition to the injury issues, they also lost Framber Valdez to free agency and don’t appear likely to re-sign him. That’s because they are reportedly hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2026. RosterResource pegs them for a CBT number of around $220MM, which is roughly $24MM shy of the $244MM base threshold. That gives them some ability to do things but they also have other needs on the roster and presumably want to keep some powder dry for midseason additions.

Put it all together and the Astros came into the winter with a rotation consisting of Hunter Brown and a series of question marks. Cristian Javier should have a spot next year but he had middling results in 2025 after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. They can’t count on Lance McCullers Jr. for anything after he posted a 6.51 ERA in his return from a lengthy injury absence. Jason Alexander is in the mix but is a veteran journeyman. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, Colton Gordon, AJ Blubaugh and Miguel Ullola are on the 40-man but they’re all either unestablished at the big league level or struggled with injuries in 2025.

Adding to the rotation was obviously necessary but the budgetary situation has impacted their approach. Instead of going after top free agents, they have given modest deals to reclamation project Nate Pearson and KBO returnee Ryan Weiss.

Burrows also fits into the low-cost mode. He has less than a year of service time, meaning he’s still years away from arbitration and even further from free agency. He also still has an option season remaining, so the Astros can send him to Triple-A throughout the year if other guys push him for a rotation spot.

To get that affordable rotation upgrade, they are subtracting from their outfield mix and their long-term pitching pipeline. Melton, now 25, debuted in 2025 but didn’t hit the ground running. He hit just .157/.234/.186 this year, though in a tiny sample of 78 plate appearances. A right ankle sprain cost him a decent chunk of the season, as he only got into 67 games between Triple-A and the majors.

His minor league work is naturally more impressive. Prior to this trade, many outlets considered him the top prospect in Houston’s system. He’s considered a plus outfielder and baserunner. Though his 2025 was shortened by injury, he swiped at least 30 bags in the two previous minor league seasons. In 1,146 minor league plate appearances, he has a 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 48 home runs, .255/.334/.462 line and 110 wRC+.

Though Melton had reached the big leagues, he was part of a somewhat jumbled outfield mix consisting of Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo, with Yordan Alvarez also in the mix from time to time when he’s not the designated hitter. Meyers has been in some trade rumors but Melton was perhaps more appealing to the Rays. Meyers is down to two years of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $3.5MM salary next year.

Melton has less than a year of service time, so he comes with six full years of control. He also has two option seasons remaining, so the Rays can keep him in Triple-A if he hasn’t yet earned a big league job with them. The Rays effectively swap him into their outfield mix for Mangum. He’ll compete for playing time with Chandler Simpson, Josh Lowe, Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley, Jonny DeLuca, Richie Palacios and others.

Brito is also an attractive piece but he’s farther away. An amateur signing out of Venezuela, he has limited professional experience, having not yet reached the Double-A level. Thus far, he has shown big strikeout stuff but he’s clearly still working on controlling his stuff. He has thrown 103 minor league innings over 2024 and 2025 with a 2.36 ERA, walking 11.7% of batters faced but also punching them out at a 35% clip. Baseball America had him ranked as the #3 prospect in the Astros’ system before the deal.

The Rays have been busy today, as they have also sent Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. This deal is also future-focused for them, as they have sent out three big leaguers for two prospects. Given the young and controllable talent they acquired, it’s possible this is some kind of setback for a rebuild.

On the other hand, Lowe was already a classic Rays trade candidate, as he is relatively expensive for them and nearing free agency. Baz isn’t quite the same, as he can still be controlled for three more seasons, but he is projected for a $3.1MM salary next year. Maybe the Rays will now pivot to investing in the roster, now that they’ve saved some money and bolstered their farm system.

Given that this deal involves three teams and half a dozen players, most of whom are young and controllable for years to come, it’s going to take quite a while to determine whether it was wise for the clubs involved. For now, it aligns with their immediate needs.

The Astros have bolstered their rotation without having to pay big bucks. They have subtracted one of their top prospects in Melton, but from an area of the roster with some depth. Brito is another notable prospect gone but he’s been replaced by a pitcher who can provide more help in the near term.

The Rays have saved a bit of money by trading Lowe. They also subtracted a couple of other players but one of them was in a crowded outfield mix with some fourth outfielder tendencies, the other a clearly talented but volatile reliever.

The Pirates were widely expected to move starting pitching to try to add to their position player group and this is the second time this winter they have executed a trade with that aim. There’s a bit of risk in giving up a controllable starter for an injury-prone bat with just one year of control and a couple of fringier pieces, but they needed to do something for the lineup and free agency was proving challenging. They have gone the trade route instead and used their area of greatest strength to hopefully patch over weaknesses elsewhere.

Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the elements of the deal. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com and Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com reported that the deal was done but pending medical reviews. Rome and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the deal was done.

Photos courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Kim Klement Neitzel, Nathan Ray Seebeck, Charles LeClaire, Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025

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Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $169.4MM
  • Mets: $91.6MM
  • Yankees: $61.8MM
  • Phillies: $56.1MM
  • Blue Jays: $13.6MM
  • Padres: $7MM
  • Astros: $1.5MM
  • Red Sox: $1.5MM
  • Rangers: $190K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.

This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.

While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.

The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.

The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.

On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.

Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.

Astros Sign Ryan Weiss To Major League Deal

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December 11th: Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Weiss’s club option for 2027 is worth $5M with a $500K buyout.

December 9th: The Astros have now officially announced their signing of Weiss. The opened two roster spots last week by outrighting Taylor Trammell and Logan VanWey. Their 40-man count is now at 39.

December 2nd: The Astros have reportedly agreed to a major league deal with right-hander Ryan Weiss, who has been pitching in Korea lately. Weiss is guaranteed $2.6MM and there’s a club option for 2027. The Sports One Athlete Management client could potentially earn $10MM over the course of the pact. The Astros have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Weiss, who turns 29 next Wednesday. A fourth-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks back in 2018, he showed enough promise as a minor leaguer that the Snakes added him to their 40-man in November of 2021 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had just tossed 78 1/3 minor league innings in that 2021 season with a 4.60 earned run average and 9.5% walk rate but his 27% strikeout rate was quite good.

He struggled in the minors in 2022 and was placed on waivers, with the Royals placing a claim. Kansas City then passed him through waivers unclaimed in October of 2022. The Royals then released him in May of 2023. At that point, Weiss had tossed 76 1/3 innings on the farm, dating back to the start of 2022. In that time, he allowed 6.96 earned runs per nine.

That release kicked off a nomadic period for Weiss. He then landed with the High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. After a few months there, with a 4.61 ERA, he signed with the Fubon Guardians of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League. He had a decent 2.32 ERA there, though in just 31 innings. He started 2024 back with the Rockers, posting a 4.61 ERA over nine starts.

In June of 2024, he signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. It was with that club that he seemed to unlock a new gear. In 2024, he gave the Eagles 16 starts with a 3.73 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 48.2% ground ball rate. He returned to the Eagles in 2025 and took the ball 30 more times. He logged 178 2/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.

Weiss then pitched in relief for the Eagles in the playoffs but the Astros plan to utilize him as a starter. Houston has plenty of uncertainty in their rotation mix. They just lost Framber Valdez to free agency. Luis Garcia required another Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and has been jettisoned from the roster. Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco and Brandon Walter also had TJS in 2025 and are slated to begin next year on the injured list.

That left the Astros going into 2026 with Hunter Brown and a heap of question marks behind him. Cristian Javier will be in the mix but he had a 4.62 ERA in 2025 after returning from his own lengthy surgery layoff. Lance McCullers Jr. has had all kind of injury troubles and put up a 6.51 ERA this year. Spencer Arrighetti was good in 2024 but spent most of 2025 on the IL and only made seven starts. Jason Alexander had some passable results this year but he’s a journeyman depth guy who’s about to turn 33. J.P. France spent most of 2025 recovering from shoulder surgery. Colton Gordon and AJ Blubaugh are on the 40-man but lacking in experience.

Upgrading the rotation for 2026 makes plenty of sense but it appears the club doesn’t have a ton of spending capacity. Reportedly, owner Jim Crane would prefer to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2026. RosterResource projects them for a $218MM CBT number next year. That’s more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold but the club also has other needs to address this winter. Trading someone like Christian Walker or Jake Meyers might free up some extra space but it’s somewhat tight for now.

So far, their rotation additions have been of the low-cost wild card variety. They took a flier on former top prospect Nate Pearson, signing him to a $1.35MM guarantee. Now they’ve added Weiss into the mix as well. Perhaps there’s a more surefire rotation upgrade over the horizon. For now, the Astros are making a modest bet that Weiss transfer some of his strong KBO results to the MLB level. For his part, Weiss gets a nice paycheck despite still having no major league experience.

Reporter Daniel Kim first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that an agreement was in place for a major league pact and that Weiss will be a starter. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the guarantee, the presence of a ’27 option and the possibility for the deal to go beyond $10MM. Chandler Rome of The Athletic specified that the option is a club option.

Yankees, Astros Among Various Clubs Interested In Freddy Peralta Trade

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There hasn’t been much movement at the top of the free agent rotation market. Most of the focus on starting pitching has been on the trade front, though we didn’t see any major deals at the Winter Meetings.

Most of the top trade candidates are questionable to move at all. Brewers star Freddy Peralta is among that group. Milwaukee isn’t motivated to trade the All-Star righty on the heels of a 97-win season, but they’re not going to shut down conversations entirely. They’ve heard from no shortage of teams with interest. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Astros, Giants, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees are among the clubs that have reached out about Peralta.

The wide range of suitors is to be expected. Houston, San Francisco, Baltimore and the Mets all have starting pitching at or near the top of the priority list. The Astros are focusing on the trade market as they try to stay below the luxury tax line. The Giants and Mets have ample payroll flexibility but have downplayed their desire to make long-term commitments to a starter. The Orioles are casting a wide net to find an impact arm who can slot in the upper half of the rotation. They’ve been tied to Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez in free agency, as well as trade possibilities like Edward Cabrera and MacKenzie Gore.

The Yankees will begin the season without Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón due to injury. Clarke Schmidt may miss the entire season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. They’re set to open the season with Max Fried and Cam Schlittler in the top two spots. Will Warren and Luis Gil project as the third and fourth arms for now, and they don’t have a fifth starter lined up. Warren had a solid rookie season but struggled with the home run ball. Gil was the Rookie of the Year in 2024. This year, he was limited to 57 innings with mediocre strikeout and walk numbers after missing a few months with a lat strain.

Boston isn’t as clearly in need of starting pitching. They entered the offseason pursuing a #2 starter. They’ve acquired Sonny Gray to fill that role and brought in Johan Oviedo as a back-end option. The focus is on adding a big bat or two, but they’ve been tied to virtually every free agent or trade candidate of significance.

Peralta fits on every contender. He’ll make $8MM in the final season of what turned out to be a dramatically team-friendly extension. He’s coming off a career-low 2.70 ERA and finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting. This was the third straight season in which he reached 200 strikeouts and started 30+ games. The Brewers fully expect to compete for another division title themselves. They’ve pulled the trigger on trades of stars with dwindling club control windows (e.g. Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes) to remain consistently competitive, though that’s not an absolute. They were happy to hold Willy Adames all the way to free agency.

Adames rejected a qualifying offer and netted a compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Giants. Barring injury, Peralta would be a near lock to do the same if Milwaukee holds him all year. That’d net them a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 draft — assuming he signs for at least $50MM. Milwaukee would be entitled to the highest level of compensation as a revenue sharing recipient.

Obviously, the Brewers could extract a far greater return for even one year of Peralta’s services on the trade market. They’re balancing that against the hit it’d deal to the 2026 team. Brandon Woodruff is back to join Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick in what would still be a high-upside rotation. Every club would be better with Peralta on it, though.

President of baseball operations Matt Arnold addressed the Peralta rumors shortly before the Winter Meetings. “I’m not sure that there’s a scenario that’s been presented that would make any sense for us,” Arnold said last week (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). “We obviously get hits on him all the time. He’s a very popular target, certainly. But he’s also a huge part of our team and we want to be competitive in 2026. A big part of this is bringing back the core that we had last year.”

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