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Astros’ Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort Unlikely To Return In Regular Season

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Astros relievers Bennett Sousa and Kaleb Ort aren’t likely to make it back to the big league roster before the end of the regular season, general manager Dana Brown revealed in a radio appearance on SportsTalk 790 AM this weekend (via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). A return during the postseason is possible for both pitchers. Sousa has been out since Aug. 20 due to a mild flexor/pronator strain. Ort landed on the 15-day IL this past Friday due to elbow inflammation.

Sousa, 30, emerged from relative obscurity with a breakout performance in 2025. The ’Stros claimed him off waivers in Sept. 2023 and were already his fifth organization of the calendar year at that point. He pitched 6 1/3 shutout frames down the stretch, showing enough to hold a 40-man roster spot. Sousa didn’t pitch in the majors or minors in 2024, however, as he required surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome in early April.

Returning just over one year later, Sousa’s first appearance in the majors this season came on April 9. He opened the year with eight scoreless innings before finally yielding his first run, and he hasn’t really looked back. In 50 2/3 frames, Sousa has shown virtually no ill effect from the surgery. If anything, he’s better than ever.

Sousa has worked a career-high number of innings and is sitting on a sharp 2.84 ERA that’s supported by metrics like FIP (2.73) and SIERA (2.95). He’s set down a hearty 29.6% of his opponents on strikes, issued walks to just 7.5% of the batters he’s faced, and has allowed only 0.71 homers per nine innings pitched. Left-handers have posted a terrible .145/.191/.242 batting line against him, and while righties have been better than that — it’d be hard to be much worse — they’re still sporting a rather tepid .235/.300/.378 slash against him. Sousa was virtually untouchable through early July (1.83 ERA), but he struggled to a 4.96 mark with vastly worse command in 16 1/3 innings before hitting the IL last month.

Ort hasn’t been as effective, but his 4.89 ERA is arguably a bit misleading. He’s had two complete nightmare outings this season — one in which he was tagged for five runs in one-third of an inning and another one (his last before hitting the IL) where he surrendered four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Any pitcher will look better when you toss out his worst couple outings of the season, but Ort has a 3.20 ERA through 45 innings in his other 47 appearances.

Command has been one of two glaring flaws for Ort, evidenced both by his 13.9% walk rate and his 1.57 HR/9 mark. The other is his susceptibility to left-handed hitters. When facing fellow righties, he’s yielded only a .188/.311/.317 batting line. Left-handers have bludgeoned him at a .254/.342/.524 clip.

Ort hasn’t been a key piece of the Astros’ high-leverage corps. He’s typically worked in middle relief. Sousa has tallied seven holds and four saves, and his role had begun to increase after Josh Hader was lost for the remainder of the regular season in mid-August. Hader, Sousa and Ort all hope to be able to return in October, but their absence complicates Houston’s path to postseason ball.

The Astros are still very, very strong postseason favorites, but they’re hardly locks to win the division. Houston sits 2.5 games up on Seattle at the moment, and the two teams still have a three-game series against each other on the schedule. It’d take a considerable collapse to drop out of the playoff field entirely, but it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility (even if it’s a long shot).

A full contingent of relievers, obviously, would improve the Astros’ chances of hanging onto the division lead, but they’re instead trying to piece together the bulk of the relief corps. Bryan Abreu, Bryan King and Steven Okert have been strong basically all season, but the rest of the bullpen is filled out by veteran newcomers (Enyel De Los Santos, Craig Kimbrel), rookies (AJ Blubaugh, Jayden Murray, Logan VanWey) and struggling righty Lance McCullers Jr. (6.97 ERA in 50 1/3 innings). Both De Los Santos (0.69 ERA in 13 innings) and Kimbrel (6 2/3 scoreless) have been quite effective, though the latter has walked seven of the 27 batters he’s faced (25.9%).

Houston will keep trying to get by with that patchwork bullpen. Assuming they do make the postseason, it’d be a big boost if even one of those more seasoned arms — Hader or Sousa, in particular — could make it back to Joe Espada’s bullpen, but there’s no guarantee any of the three are back in the fold this year.

Astros Notes: Meyers, Ort, Dezenzo

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After close to two months on the injured list, Jake Meyers might make his return to the Astros lineup as early as today.  Meyers played six games during a minor league rehab assignment and then rejoined the big league team for a workout on Friday, though manager Joe Espada (speaking with the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters) didn’t give any hint about when exactly Meyers might be activated from the 10-day IL.

Meyers’ excellent glove earned him at least part-time duty as Houston’s center fielder during his five MLB seasons, and he moved into more of an everyday role in 2024.  Continuing that regular job this year, Meyers responded with his best sustained stretch of hitting, as he batted .308/.369/.405 with three homers and 14 steals (in 19 attempts) over his first 322 plate appearances of 2025.  However, this impressive start was interrupted by a right calf strain that has kept Meyers on the IL since early July.

If Meyers is able to keep up that hot hitting along with his customary defense, he’ll suddenly be a tremendous all-around addition for an Astros club fighting to stay in first place in the AL West.  Houston has remained in first place despite dealing with a ton of injuries, and even with Meyers on the verge of returning, the IL carousel continued yesterday when Kaleb Ort was placed on the 15-day injured list.  (Colton Gordon was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move, and Gordon started yesterday’s game with the Rangers.)

Ort is dealing with right elbow inflammation, and according to Espada, Ort was feeling sore in the aftermath of his most recent outing — a rough two-thirds of an inning against the Yankees that saw Ort charged with four runs.  There isn’t yet any word on the seriousness of Ort’s injury, yet given both the calendar and the caution teams usually deploy with elbow injuries, it is possible Ort’s season might be in jeopardy even if his scans come back clean.

Now in his fifth MLB season, Ort had a bit of a breakout in 2024, posting a 2.55 ERA over 24 2/3 innings in his first year in Houston.  Things haven’t gone as smoothly this year, as Ort missed the first month due to an oblique strain, and has a 4.89 ERA and an inflated 13.9% walk rate over 46 relief innings.  Ort did seem to be getting on track with a 1.80 ERA in the 15 innings pitched prior to Thursday’s meltdown against the Yankees.

If there’s still hope that Ort can make it back before the season is over, Zach Dezenzo’s outlook looks much more uncertain.  The Astros announced yesterday that Dezenzo was pulled off his rehab assignment after suffering a right elbow sprain.  As Espada told Kawahara and company, Dezenzo hurt his elbow making a throw on Tuesday during a game with Triple-A Sugar Land.

Dezenzo’s last game with the Astros came on May 31, as he suffered a capsule sprain his left hand that sent him to the 10-day and eventually the 60-day version of the injured list.  The elbow issue surfaced just as Dezenzo seemed to be approaching a return to the majors, as the outfielder was playing in his fifth rehab game.

It’s a tough break for what may end up as a lost season for the 25-year-old.  Dezenzo made his Major League debut in 2024, and he has a .244/.305/.369 slash line over 174 career PA at the big league level.  This brief time in the Show saw Dezenzo utilized primarily at first base and in both corner outfield slots, with a few fill-in appearances as a third baseman last year.

Astros Notes: Paredes, Hader, Arrighetti

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Astros infielder Isaac Paredes resumed baseball activities this week, taking batting practice and doing light infield work before Wednesday’s game against the Yankees (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Paredes has been out since shortly after the All-Star Break with a hamstring strain that threatens his season.

It still appears to be a long shot that the two-time All-Star will make it back. The injury was severe enough that surgery was a legitimate consideration. Paredes opted for non-surgical rehab in hope of contributing to a playoff race. He’s progressing well so far, but neither Paredes nor manager Joe Espada is ready to handicap his odds of coming back this year.

Paredes was one of the team’s top hitters before the injury. He connected on 19 home runs with a .259/.359/.470 slash through 409 plate appearances. The Astros would love to get his bat back in October. That’s true even though he no longer has a simple path to everyday playing time. Houston added Carlos Correa to play third base in their surprise deadline deal with Minnesota. Christian Walker has picked things up at first base. Yordan Alvarez is back at designated hitter.

Paredes conceded he might be limited to DH even if he can make it back to hit. They’d need to decide whether to use him off the bench or live with Alvarez’s defense in left field. That’s a far off consideration.  They’ll continue to monitor Paredes’ progress before sorting out how they’d arrange their lineup if he makes it back.

They wouldn’t have nearly as many questions about how to use Josh Hader. Houston’s closer is trying to make an October return from a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder. Espada said this afternoon that follow-up imaging this week showed healing but that Hader remains shut down from throwing (relayed by Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). Bryan Abreu has stepped into the closer’s role. That initially went well, but the righty has given up three runs in each of his last two appearances. Subtracting Abreu from the setup corps — plus an intervening elbow injury for Bennett Sousa — has strained the bullpen depth as the playoffs approach.

The pitching staff took yet another hit on Wednesday when starter Spencer Arrighetti landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. That rules him out until at least September 15. With the regular season ending less than two weeks later, Espada admitted it’s unlikely Arrighetti will be back during the regular season (link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). The manager didn’t close the door on a playoff comeback. The second-year righty might’ve been a fringe candidate for the postseason roster even at full health, though. Throwing him into the playoffs after an absence of at least a month would be risky.

Houston was planning to deploy a six-man rotation. Arrighetti’s injury could change that. Their starters for all three games of this weekend’s series in Texas are still to be announced.

Astros Place Spencer Arrighetti On Injured List

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The Astros placed Spencer Arrighetti on the 15-day injured list shortly before tonight’s game against the Yankees. The placement, which is retroactive to August 31, is due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. Houston selected reliever Jayden Murray onto the MLB roster in his place. Lefty John Rooney has been moved from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot. The Astros also activated Victor Caratini from the concussion list and optioned Chas McCormick to Triple-A Sugar Land this afternoon.

Arrighetti tossed 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Saturday. He apparently came out of that appearance with elbow soreness. The Astros waited until just before game time tonight to put him on the shelf. Injured list placements can be backdated for up to three days. The Astros determined Arrighetti will need at least another 12 days before he’s ready to pitch.

Houston activated Luis Garcia from the injured list on Monday. They intended to go to a six-man rotation, ideally affording an extra day of rest for Garcia and Cristian Javier with both pitchers just back from elbow surgery. This will force a change of plans. They can drop back to a five-man starting staff with Javier and Garcia following Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jason Alexander. If they want to keep a six-man rotation, they could reverse course on the plan to move Lance McCullers Jr. to the bullpen. Colton Gordon is in the Triple-A rotation, while rookie AJ Blubaugh could build back to rotation work after beginning his MLB career in the bullpen.

Arrighetti has spent most of the season on the IL after breaking his thumb on a fluke injury when he was hit by a ball during batting practice in April. The second-year righty has been limited to seven starts and carries a 5.35 ERA across 35 1/3 innings. He took the ball 29 times a year ago, pitching to a 4.53 mark over 145 frames in his rookie season.

Murray gets his first major league opportunity at age 28. The 6’1″ righty has thrown 64 innings of 4.64 ERA ball over 50 appearances with Sugar Land. Murray has fanned 24% of opponents while issuing walks to nearly 11% of batters faced. He has pitched well of late, allowing only six earned runs in 23 innings going back to the beginning of July. A former Tampa Bay draftee, Murray was traded to the Astros while he was pitching in Double-A as part of the three-team Trey Mancini/Jose Siri deal in 2022.

Rooney, also 28, was acquired from Miami last month. He made his MLB debut on August 24 against Baltimore, giving up one run while recording four outs. Houston placed him on the injured list with elbow inflammation after that appearance, and he’s now out for the season. The Astros will need to reinstate him onto the 40-man roster or put him on waivers at the beginning of the offseason.

On the position player side, Caratini returns to split time behind the dish with Yainer Diaz. The Astros will keep third catcher César Salazar on the active roster as well. That means the first minor league stint of the season for McCormick, who is batting .210/.279/.290 across 116 plate appearances. McCormick was a valuable and underrated outfield piece over his first three seasons, but he’s amidst his second straight very poor year. He’s a long shot to make Houston’s playoff roster (if they qualify) and will be a non-tender candidate this winter.

Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

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Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

Will the Astros win the AL West?
Yes 57.81% (1,951 votes)
No 42.19% (1,424 votes)
Total Votes: 3,375

Angels Claim Logan Davidson

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The Angels announced that they have claimed infielder Logan Davidson off waivers from the Astros. The latter club designated him for assignment earlier this week. In a corresponding 40-man move, the Angels have transferred right-hander Víctor Mederos to the 60-day injured list.

Davidson, 27, was a first-round pick of the Athletics back in 2019. He was initially one of that club’s top prospects but his stock faded. Even back in his college days, his power came with concerns about his penchant for strikeouts. Those concerns popped up again in affiliated ball. From 2021 to 2023, he stepped to the plate 1,437 times in the minors with an 11% walk rate but a 27.6% strikeout rate. He produced a combined line of .246/.332/.379 in that span, leading to a wRC+ of 85.

Going into 2024, he had largely fallen off prospect lists, but he ended up having a decent season. He still struck out in 31.1% of his Triple-A plate appearances but he managed to produce a .300/.366/.535 line and 111 wRC+ anyway. Given his ability to play every position outside of the battery, it was possible to imagine him serving as a useful utility guy.

Here in 2025, he had a strong .303/.452/.428 line in mid-May, again with a strikeout rate over 30%. The A’s then gave him his first big-league call but it didn’t last long. He hit .150/.261/.200 in his first 24 plate appearances and was quickly optioned back down to the minors. He was designated for assignment in July and was claimed by the Astros. They kept him in Triple-A but he hit .207/.290/.390 there and got the DFA treatment again.

This claim makes it three American League West clubs in a span of a few months for Davidson. For the Halos, they are about to lose Yoán Moncada, Chris Taylor and Luis Rengifo to free agency, cutting into their position player depth. They could get Anthony Rendon back next year but surely don’t want to be relying on him for anything since he has missed so much time, including all of the 2025 season due to hip surgery.

Going into 2026, they should have Zach Neto at shortstop and Nolan Schanuel at first base, but openings at second and third base. Prospect Christian Moore got a shot to take over at the keystone but just got optioned after struggling in his initial major league action. Guys like Scott Kingery, Oswald Peraza, Chad Stevens and Kyren Paris are on the roster. The Halos will likely make some offseason moves to address their infield but Davidson gives them another depth option for now. He has just a few days of service time and will still have two option years remaining after this one.

Mederos, 24, landed on the 15-day IL a little over a week ago due to shoulder inflammation. His current status is unclear but this move indicates the Halos don’t expect him back this season. He’ll be on the 60-day IL for the rest of the year, though there’s no IL in the offseason.

Photo courtesy of Dennis Lee, Imagn Images

Astros Designate Logan Davidson For Assignment

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With active rosters expanding from 26 to 28 today, the Astros made a few moves, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Outfielder Taylor Trammell has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list and right-hander Luis Garcia from the 60-day IL. The Garcia move was previously reported. To open a 40-man spot for him, infielder Logan Davidson has been designated for assignment.

Davidson, 27, joined the Astros via waiver claim a few days prior to the trade deadline. The former first-round pick out of Clemson had been designated for assignment by the A’s, his original organization. He didn’t appear in the majors with Houston, spending his entire Astros stint in Triple-A Sugar Land, where he hit .207/.290/.390 in 93 plate appearances.

That’s Davidson’s third run at the Triple-A level. He’s a career .271/.367/.441  hitter in just 1002 plate appearances there. Davidson has primarily been a shortstop in his pro career but has at least 500 innings at all four infield positions and another 350 innings of outfield work under his belt.

Now that he’s been designated for assignment, Davidson will head back to waivers. He’ll be available to all 29 other clubs, based on the reverse order of the leaguewide standings (starting with the Rockies). The switch-hitting Davidson has multiple minor league option years remaining beyond the current season and could be a depth option for rebuilding clubs looking to fill out their infield depth with rosters having expanded.

Astros To Activate Luis Garcia From 60-Day IL On Monday

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After well over two years on the sidelines, Luis Garcia is finally ready to return to the majors.  Astros manager Joe Espada told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that Houston will activate Garcia from the 60-day injured list tomorrow so the right-hander can make the start against the Angels.  A corresponding move will need to be made to create space for Garcia on the 40-man roster, but Garcia’s spot on the active roster will be addressed because the roster expands to 28 players on September 1.

Garcia’s last big league game was on May 1, 2023, as a Tommy John surgery ensured that Garcia would be out of action until the latter part of the 2024 season at the absolute earliest.  It wasn’t entirely unusual, then, that Garcia didn’t pitch last year due to some renewed elbow soreness while he was pitching on a minor league rehab assignment, yet unfortunately those elbow issues continued into 2025.

It wasn’t until the first week of July that Garcia made his season debut in an outing with the Astros’ rookie ball affiliate.  He has now made nine appearances while working his way up the minor league ladder, with four of his last five starts coming with Triple-A Sugar Land.  In his last start on August 26, Garcia tossed 75 pitches over six innings while allowing just one run, and he has thrown at least 75 pitches in each of his last three outings.

While on-field results may not matter as much as pitch counts and general comfort and health during rehab assignments, Garcia’s 2.60 ERA over 17 1/3 Triple-A innings provides some evidence that he is ready to roll.  What he can provide against MLB hitters after such a lengthy absence is anyone’s guess, yet it’s certainly helpful to the Astros to get a rotation arm back for the stretch run and into October.

Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are locks as Houston’s top two starters in the regular season and in a hypothetical playoff rotation.  While there isn’t a ton of true certainty beyond Brown and Valdez, the Astros would seem to have enough rotation depth to help in their pursuit of the AL West crown and what the team hopes is another deep playoff run.

Cristian Javier has logged four starts since returning from his own Tommy John rehab, and Spencer Arrighetti has done well in his last couple of starts after a broken thumb sent him to the 60-day IL earlier this year.  Jason Alexander has pitched well since stepping into the rotation but would ideally work best as a swingman during the playoffs.  Rookie Brandon Walter was excellent in nine starts before elbow inflammation sent him to the 60-day IL, and he isn’t eligible for activation until late September.  The struggling Lance McCullers Jr. was recently moved to the bullpen, opening up room for Garcia in the rotation mix.

Garcia joins this group in what is now his fifth MLB season.  Emerging as a rotation regular in 2021, Garcia finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting en route to posting a 3.48 ERA over 155 1/3 innings for an Astros team that won the AL pennant.  Garcia followed up with a strong sophomore season of 157 1/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball in 2022 to help Houston bring home the World Series.  While Garcia has a 5.79 ERA across 23 1/3 career postseason innings, he has had his share of big playoff moments, including 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball in Houston’s clinching game of the 2021 ALCS over the Red Sox.

Astros Sign Matt Bowman To Minor League Deal

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The Astros announced this evening that they’ve signed right-hander Matt Bowman to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Sugar Land. Bowman had been released by the Orioles earlier today, but has now found a new organization to call home for the remainder of the 2025 campaign.

Bowman, 34, made his big league debut in 2016 and spent four seasons with the Cardinals and Reds, posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 183 games at the big league level before injuries sidelined him for several years. He returned to the majors in 2023 for a three-game stint as a member of the Yankees, and in 2024 he bounced between four clubs before finally settling in as a member of the Orioles in August of last year. He posted a solid 3.45 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate in 15 games for Baltimore last year, and after being outrighted off the club’s roster he re-signed on a minor league deal last offseason.

Bowman was briefly added back to the Baltimore’s 40-man roster in March to prevent him from opting out of his deal, but was promptly outrighted to the minors on Opening Day only to be selected onto the roster once again on March 30. He was selected to the roster three more times over the course of 2025 but struggled to a 6.20 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 15.8% in the majors throughout that roller coaster of roster moves. His 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work with Triple-A Norfolk wasn’t exactly inspiring, either, though his 21.8% strikeout rate in those outings was certainly an improvement.

Now, Bowman will try to carve out a role for himself in Houston. The right-hander will be eligible to join the Astros in the postseason if the club were to have interest in bringing him onto the 40-man roster because he was able to join the organization prior to September 1, at which point any new additions to the organization would not be eligible for the playoff roster. Of course, it’s a stretch that Bowman would receive much consideration for the club’s playoff roster given that it’s not yet clear whether or not the Astros will even afford him an opportunity on their MLB roster at all this September. Cody Bolton, Jordan Weems, and Tayler Scott are among the other non-roster relief arms in the Astros organization who could vie for playing time if the club finds itself in need of depth during the season’s final month.

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.

Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.

While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.

He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.

Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.

When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.

Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom’s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried’s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.

With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
Tarik Skubal 59.81% (2,941 votes)
Garrett Crochet 29.61% (1,456 votes)
Someone Else 6.00% (295 votes)
Hunter Brown 4.58% (225 votes)
Total Votes: 4,917
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