Ronel Blanco To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
11:03am: Astros manager Joe Espada provided some more specifics to Leah Vann of Chron.com, revealing that Blanco will undergo Tommy John surgery.
10:28am: Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco, currently on the injured list due to elbow discomfort, will undergo season-ending surgery next week, the team announced Wednesday. Specifics on the nature of the procedure were not immediately revealed. Blanco is “anticipated to return during the 2026 season,” per the Astros, which suggests that he may not be ready for the start of next year’s spring training.
Blanco, 31, hit the injured list earlier this month with what was vaguely described as elbow discomfort. The lack of specificity is par for the course for the Astros organization when it comes to injuries, but the open-ended nature of the issue paired with GM Dana Brown stating that the Astros were “hoping for the best” as Blanco sought a second opinion created a particularly ominous air around Blanco’s status. It now appears that a worst-case scenario, or close to it, will play out.
Subtracting Blanco from an already thin rotation mix puts Houston in a perilous position. Their one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is among the best rotation duos in the sport. Everything thereafter gets murky.
Rookies Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon are both in the rotation at present, as is Lance McCullers Jr., who just returned from an injury absence of more than two years. Gusto (4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 innings) and Gordon (5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) are not top-shelf prospects but rather 26-year-olds who profile as back-end starters or perhaps multi-inning relievers. McCullers has yet to complete five innings in an outing but has been solid in three of his four abbreviated starts. In the other, however, he was decimated for seven earned runs in just one-third of an inning versus the Reds.
Houston’s other rotation options are more or less all on the injured list. Spencer Arrighetti is still out with a broken thumb. Hayden Wesneski recently underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2025 season. Luis Garcia has been out more than two years due to Tommy John surgery and a series of setbacks. Cristian Javier had Tommy John surgery last June. J.P. France underwent shoulder surgery last July.
The ‘Stros do have a few more rotation candidates in Triple-A, but there’s minimal experience among the group. Righty AJ Blubaugh made one four-inning start in his MLB debut earlier this season. He has a 6.05 ERA in Triple-A. Lefty Brandon Walter, a former prospect in the Red Sox organization, signed a minor league deal last summer and was selected to the big league roster shortly after the announcement that Wesneski’s season is over. He’s pitched quite well in Triple-A this year (1.94 ERA) but is in his first season back from a shoulder injury that cost him all of 2024 and has a 5.14 ERA in 28 career MLB innings. Journeyman righty Jason Alexander was recently claimed off waivers. Prospect Miguel Ullola is not yet on the 40-man roster; he has a solid 3.86 ERA and a huge 32.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A but also a grim 15.4% walk rate.
Suffice it to say, the Astros aren’t exactly plentiful in reliable rotation options at the moment. An injury to either Brown or Valdez would be a dagger to a reeling staff that’s been buoyed by a surprisingly excellent bullpen. The lack of innings from the rotation will very likely put further strain on that relief corps, however, making it all the more imperative that Houston find some rotation reinforcements, whether that help comes from within or via trade.
Of course, trading for help is far easier said than done. Even obvious sellers tend to avoid moving veteran pieces at this stage of the season, instead preferring to wait until there are more bidders and a fuller grasp of the potential market later in the summer. On top of that, the Astros will face some financial limitations if they look to bring in anyone from outside the organization. Owner Jim Crane didn’t expressly state it on the record, but multiple reports and nearly all of the Astros’ offseason actions made clear that Crane is intent on remaining south of the $241MM luxury tax threshold in 2025. An exception might have been made had Alex Bregman taken the team’s reported six-year offer, but that seems to have been the only scenario in which Crane was content to pay the tax. At the moment, RosterResource projects the Astros with about $235.5MM of luxury considerations.
For the time being, Houston will likely attempt to tread water with in-house options. Arrighetti could be back in around a month if all goes well; Espada told reporters last week that he was set for a follow-up visit to check in on his thumb’s progress and could begin playing catch a few days after the fact. He’ll need to progress through flat ground throwing, mound sessions, live batting practice and multiple minor league rehab starts before rejoining the team, however. No one else among Houston’s contingent of injured starters will be back anytime soon.
Barring a surprising acquisition, the Astros will be forced to continue operating with 60% of their Opening Day rotation on the shelf. The silver lining is that the 40% that remains healthy — Brown and Valdez — are far and away the team’s two best starters. If they can stay afloat in the standings, it’s all but a given that the Astros will target rotation help on the summer trade market. They’re currently in second place in the AL West, sitting a game and a half behind the division-leading Mariners. Houston and Cleveland are currently tied for the final two Wild Card spots in the American League, but six teams (Royals, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels) are within four games in that tightly contested race.
Poll: Can Jeremy Pena Keep This Up?
It’s been a struggle for the Astros to even keep their heads above water this year thanks to the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and a large number of lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing so far. And the rotation has virtually no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying just 2.5 games back in the AL West an impressive feat in its own right, even if the days of the dynasty that brought home two World Series championships appear to be over.
The development of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a major reason why they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs at all at this point. A third-rounder in the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with a brilliant season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has always been a valuable player thanks to his excellent work at shortstop but has never been more than a league average performer at the plate. Entering 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of exactly 100 during his MLB career.
As the Cubs demonstrated when they offered Dansby Swanson $177MM to become their starting shortstop, a league average bat with an excellent glove at shortstop is already incredibly valuable. Pena has seemingly taken his game to another level so far this year, however. He’s hitting an excellent .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. Those numbers aren’t exactly appearing at the top of any leaderboards this early in the season, when relatively small sample sizes allow baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting average or a 60-homer season virtually every year. But could Pena’s step forward be more sustainable than the typical hot start to a season?
There’s plenty of reason to believe that’s the case. One of the most positive changes in Pena’s profile is his substantially improved plate discipline. After striking out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest walk rate in the majors among hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances over the past three years, Pena is now one of just 19 qualified hitters with a strikeout rate under 14% this year (13.7%). He’s even walking a bit more frequently, with a 6.2% rate that grades out as merely below average rather than in the conversation for lowest in the league. Those improvements in plate discipline appear to be largely sustainable. Pena is swinging less often than ever (49.0%), and while that’s come with a decrease in swing rate inside the strike zone it’s also allowed him to cut down his swinging strike rate by nearly three points relative to his career norms.
While Pena’s increased passivity in the strike zone could be a cause for concern down the line, for now it seems as though swinging less often is doing wonders for his plate discipline. That willingness to take strikes inside the zone has been offset so far by increased power production. Pena’s .149 ISO to this point in the season doesn’t quite match his rookie campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it’s still ten points above his career norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for just 25 long balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound power proves to be sustainable, that could help Pena avoid opposing pitchers challenging him in the zone more often to exploit the fact that he’s begun to swing less often.
The underlying metrics on Pena’s power output are mixed, however. He’s hitting the ball hard more often than ever before with a 40.1% hard-hit rate that would be the best of his career, but his 6.8% barrel rate is not substantially different from his career 6.2% mark, his average exit velocity is virtually unchanged, and his max exit velocity is actually lower than ever before. His bat speed has actually come down slightly as well. It’s not all bad news, however: in addition to his aforementioned hard-hit rate improvements, Pena is squaring the ball up more often than ever before (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is more or less in line with his wOBA of .355, which suggests that he’s more or less earned his production to this point.
How do MLBTR readers feel about Pena’s strong start to the season? Is it a sustainable step forward for the young hitter, or will he revert back to average with time? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Jeremy Pena be an above average hitter going forward?
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Yes, Pena's improved discipline and power output are sustainable enough for him to remain an above average hitter. 59% (1,010)
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No, Pena's questionable power metrics and passivity at the plate will cause him to regress back to average with time. 41% (712)
Total votes: 1,722
Astros Sign Greg Jones To Minor League Deal
The Astros announced that they have signed infielder/outfielder Greg Jones to a minor league contract. Per his MLB.com transactions tracker, he’s been assigned to the Florida Complex League club for now, but should report to Triple-A Sugar Land at some point in the near future.
Jones, 27, was released by the White Sox a couple of weeks ago. That opened a 40-man roster spot for the Sox to claim Yoendrys Gomez, who has since been designated for assignment. At the time of the claim, Jones was on the minor league injured list with an unknown ailment. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, which essentially forced the Sox to release him since they wanted to open that roster spot.
That has freed up Jones to sign this deal with the Astros. His current health status is unclear but he will provide the Astros with a nice set of wheels whenever he’s ready to go. In 375 minor league league games, he has stolen 167 bases in 192 tries, an 87% success rate. Defensively, he has played the two middle infield spots and all three outfield positions.
The offense has been less impressive, however. From the start of 2023 to the present, he has 769 plate appearances on the farm, mostly at the Triple-A level. He has 28 home runs in that time but has also been struck out in 37.3% of those trips to the plate. The result is a .247/.326/.428 line and an 84 wRC+ for that span. He has been sent to the plate just eight times at the major league level with a .143/.250/.571 line in those.
For the Astros, there’s no risk on a minor league deal. Jones is a former first-round pick, with the Rays having selected him 22nd overall in 2019. At the very least, he seems capable of being a useful bench player who serves as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Any progress with the bat would be a nice bonus.
Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
Ronel Blanco To Go On IL For Elbow Soreness
May 22: General manager Dana Brown appeared on Sports Talk 790’s Sean Salisbury Show this morning and did not give an immediate update but said the team would provide more information later today (presumably, when meeting with the entire Houston beat). Brown noted that the team has hoping for the best, but the suggestion of a formal announcement at a scheduled time does little to quell concerns about an already ominous injury scenario.
Unsurprisingly, manager Joe Espada said that Blanco will be placed on the injured list, per Leah Vann of Chron.com. Blanco will be getting a second opinion about his elbow. Espada added that Gordon will be recalled as the corresponding move, per Vann.
May 21: The Astros are in Tampa but right-hander Ronel Blanco isn’t with them. Manager Joe Espada tells Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle that the righty reported elbow soreness two days ago and flew back to Houston to be evaluated.
At this point, there’s not too much information to go on. Blanco started on Saturday and threw 92 pitches over six innings against the Rangers. His fastball velocity held fairly steady compared to his previous start but has been trending down in recent weeks. His fastball velo crept up over his first five starts of the season, topping out at 94.3 miles per hour on April 22nd. But it dropped to 93.5 mph in the start after that, then 93.4, 93.0 and 92.8 mph in his most recent outings.
There are many things that could explain such a trend and the current testing will surely provide more information. Until there’s more clarity, it’s too soon for a full-blown panic, but it’s a worrisome situation. It’s always a bit alarming when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured, of course. For the Astros, it’s especially notable, given their larger rotation picture.
Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and J.P. France are all on the 60-day injured list, recovering from major surgeries in previous seasons. Just three days ago, it was reported that Hayden Wesneski would require Tommy John surgery. He has already joined those other three hurlers on the 60-day IL. Houston also has Spencer Arrighetti on the 15-day IL, as he fractured a thumb in early April.
Around those injuries, they are down to a rotation core of Blanco, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers only just returned from his own lengthy injury layoff, making three starts so far this month, his first big league action since 2022. The Astros have recently turned to Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter to make spot starts as they are trying to trudge through a 17-game stretch with no off days.
If Blanco needs to miss some time, that would further subtract from a group that already feels thin. The righty has emerged as a key piece of the rotation in recent years. He logged 167 1/3 innings last season with a 2.80 earned run average. His 10.1% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 24.6% of batters faced.
There was a bit of luck in that thanks to a .220 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, which is why his 4.15 FIP and 4.17 SIERA were a bit skeptical of that ERA. This year, his ERA has indeed normalized to 4.10, even with his strikeout and walk rates holding fairly steady. Even if Blanco’s true talent is an ERA just above 4.00, that’s a decent starter and not one a club wants to lose, especially when they are already so snakebit.
The Astros still have five more games until their next day off. Brown is going today. Per Kawahara, the Astros plan to have McCullers, Gusto and Valdez take the next three with Sunday’s starter to be determined. It seems fair to assume Blanco won’t be an option for that Sunday game.
Gordon and Walter were both just optioned to the minors in recent days. An optional assignment for a pitcher comes with a 15-day minimum unless they are being recalled as the corresponding move for a pitcher going on the IL. AJ Blubaugh is also on the 40-man and is pitching in Triple-A. Jason Alexander was just claimed off waivers from the Athletics three days ago and he could factor in. Guys like Tyler Ivey and Miguel Ullola are also pitching in Triple-A but not on the 40-man.
Beyond this weekend, the Astros will perhaps have to come up with a long-term rotation plan that doesn’t involve Blanco. Valdez and Brown give them a strong one-two punch but there would be plenty of uncertainty beyond that. McCullers is still a wild card after missing two full seasons and the Astros may need to cobble together something for two rotation spots behind him.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Tayler Scott Elects Free Agency
Right-hander Tayler Scott, who was designated for assignment by the Astros a week ago, has cleared waivers but has rejected an outright assignment and elected free agency. He has that right as a player with a previous career outright. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle was among those to relay the news.
Scott, 33 in June, had the best season of his career in 2024. Prior to that, he was a journeyman, spending years bouncing around to various affiliated clubs, indy ball teams and even spent a season in Japan. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros going into 2024 and made the Opening Day roster. He then posted a 2.23 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings on the year. His 12.4% walk rate wasn’t great but he managed to punch out 25.2% of opponents.
There was probably a bit of luck in there. His .230 batting average on balls in play and 84.9% strand rate were both on the fortunate side. Still, his 4.13 FIP and 4.04 SIERA suggested he could be a serviceable big league arm even if the baseball gods stopped treating him so nicely.
He wasn’t able to carry that forward into 2025. The Astros kept him around but he posted a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. His fortune flipped, as his .313 BABIP and 65.2% strand rate this year have been on the unlucky side. He also hasn’t done himself any favors with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 15.4% walk rate.
That performance understandably nudged him off the Astros’ roster. He is out of options, so they had little choice but to designate him for assignment. The fact that he cleared waivers suggests that no other club wanted to give him a roster spot either.
Based on his solid performance last year, he should be able to get a minor league deal somewhere. That could be a reunion with the Astros but he’ll also have the chance to explore opportunities with the 29 other clubs.
Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images
Astros Select Brandon Walter
May 20: Per Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Walter has been selected and Wesneski transferred to the 60-day IL, as expected. Gordon has been optioned as the corresponding active roster move.
May 19: Left-hander Brandon Walter will start for the Astros tomorrow against Tampa Bay, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). The Astros will need to add him to the 40-man roster. They can move Hayden Wesneski, who is ticketed for Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man spot. They’ll also need to make a corresponding active roster move involving a pitcher.
Walter signed a minor league contract with the Astros last August. It was apparently a two-year deal, as the southpaw spent last season on the injured list rehabbing a rotator cuff injury. Walter made his return to the mound during Spring Training, allowing four runs through seven innings.
He’s been working in a swing role at Triple-A Sugar Land, where he has started five of nine appearances. Walter owns a 2.27 ERA across 35 2/3 innings, backing that up with strong underlying marks. He’s getting grounders at a huge 60% rate, striking out upwards of a quarter of opponents, and has kept his walk rate to a minuscule 5.2% clip.
It has been a nice rebound effort for the 28-year-old lefty. Walter went from an unheralded 26th-round draft choice to one of the better pitching prospects in the Red Sox’s system a couple years ago. He was hit hard in his nine MLB appearances with the Sox, allowing a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings two seasons back. He owns a 4.19 ERA across parts of three Triple-A seasons. Walter isn’t going to overpower many hitters, as his four-seam and sinker each average 91 MPH. His five-pitch mix is headlined by his upper-70s sweeping slider.
Walter still has an option remaining, so the Astros can send him back to Sugar Land without putting him on waivers. For now, he joins rookie Ryan Gusto as swing options. Colton Gordon has taken Wesneski’s rotation spot, rounding out the starting five behind Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco and Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros haven’t had an off day since May 8 and won’t be off until next Monday. They’ll likely use Walter and Gusto in some kind of tandem outing tomorrow to reduce the workload on the rest of the staff.
Hayden Wesneski To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) this afternoon. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relays that the Astros expect him back at some point during the 2026 campaign. A more specific timetable for his return won’t be known until after the procedure, which is expected to be performed in Dallas by Dr. Keith Meister later this week. In any case, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2025 season and presumably at least the first half of 2026 as well.
The news brings an abrupt end to Wesneski’s first season in Houston. The 27-year-old was acquired from the Cubs alongside All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and top prospect Cam Smith in the deal that shipped longtime Astros star Kyle Tucker to Chicago back in December. Initially drafted by the Yankees in the sixth-round of the 2019 draft, Wesneski was traded to the Cubs in exchange for right-handed reliever Scott Effross at the 2022 trade deadline and went on to spend parts of three seasons as a swing man on the north side. Wesneski pitched 190 innings total across 22 starts and 46 relief outings for the Cubs from 2022 to 2024, and in that time he posted fairly pedestrian numbers with a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 4.74 FIP. His 23.0% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate were both solid, but his production was generally held back by a penchant for allowing homers.
Among pitchers with at least 180 innings of work over that three-year span, Wesneski’s home run rate was ninth-highest. That’s certainly not ideal, and that proclivity towards the long ball held Wesneski back from reaching what many evaluators viewed as a mid-rotation ceiling during his time with the Cubs. The Astros saw something they liked, however, as they not only traded for him as part of the Tucker deal but also gave him a spot in their Opening Day rotation. The righty was serviceable but unspectacular, with a 4.50 ERA and 4.79 FIP across six starts that both clocked in just a bit worse than league average. Home run issues persisted for Wesneski, but a reduced 4.6% walk rate was enough for some of his advanced metrics to improve, such as a 3.68 SIERA that clocked in well below his career mark.
Whether he’ll be able to push his actual production into a range closer to those peripheral numbers has become a question for another time, however. The right-hander was placed on the injured list with elbow discomfort nine days ago, and initial testing on his elbow did not provide much clarity about what issues Wesneski was facing until a follow-up appointment with Meister confirmed that the righty would need to go under the knife. While the Astros have said that Wesneski is expected back next year, Rome notes that the hurler is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason and suggests that could make him a potential non-tender candidate this winter if he’s not expected to contribute much in 2026, as was the case with former Astro Jose Urquidy this past winter.
In the meantime, the Astros will left to rely on a rotation mix that just got a little less deep for 2025. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Lance McCullers Jr. are currently joined by rookie Colton Gordon in the rotation, with Ryan Gusto in the bullpen as a swing option. Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier are all expected back at some point this season from the injured list to provide additional reinforcements, but the timeline for all three remains murky.
Astros Claim Jason Alexander From Athletics
The Athletics announced that right-hander Jason Alexander has been claimed off waivers by the Astros. Alexander was designated for assignment by the West Sacramento club earlier this week.
Signed to a minor league deal back in November, Alexander had that contract selected to the A’s roster in April, and he struggled to an 18.00 ERA over four appearances and six innings with the team. The grim results included 2 1/3 innings of nine-run ball in the Athletics’ 19-2 loss to the Dodgers on Thursday, and Alexander was sent to DFA limbo the next day.
This brief run with the A’s marked Alexander’s first MLB action since his 2022 rookie season, when he had a 5.40 ERA across 71 2/3 innings (starting 11 of 18 games) with the Brewers. A shoulder injury kept him shelved for a good chunk of the 2023 season, and he spent the 2024 campaign in Boston’s minor league system.
Despite the lack of production at the big league level, Alexander has some decent numbers in the minors, including a 1.27 ERA in 21 2/3 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas this year. The grounder specialist has a 63.6% groundball rate to show for his minor league work in 2025, and Alexander has routinely topped the 50% mark in grounder rates over his minors career. At the cost of a 40-man roster spot, there’s little risk for the Astros in seeing what the 32-year-old can do as a depth arm.
White Sox Acquire Miguel Castro From Astros
May 16: The White Sox announced the trade. However, rather than the cash considerations indicated by Brown, the Sox announced that they’re sending international bonus pool space back to Houston in the swap. Pool space must be traded in $250K increments unless a team is emptying out a bonus pool that has under $250K remaining (in which case the entire remainder is sent).
Given the Sox’ position and long-term outlook, it seems likely that they’re sending at most $250K or perhaps that they had less than that amount remaining. Notably, no actual cash changes hands when pool space is traded. The Astros are simply acquiring the right to spend an additional block of cash on international amateur free agents.
May 15: The White Sox are acquiring right-hander Miguel Castro from the Astros, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Astros general manager Dana Brown tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic that Houston receives cash considerations in return.
Castro, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Astros in the offseason. He has since pitched 19 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 2.29 earned run average. His 10.1% walk rate is a tad high but he’s striking out 25.3% of opponents while getting grounders on 44% of balls in play.
Despite those solid numbers, it seems the Astros weren’t planning to call him up, so they’ve traded him instead. Per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2, Castro’s deal had an upcoming opt-out date on June 3rd.
The White Sox are rebuilding and don’t have a strong relief group. Collectively, their bullpen has a 4.42 ERA, putting them in the bottom third of major league teams. Given that they are 14-30 and at the bottom of the American League standings, they presumably plan to install Castro into the bullpen and see if he can pitch his way into being a midseason trade candidate. Assuming they plan to call him up before his opt-out, they will need to open a 40-man spot for him.
Castro has occasionally been a useful pitcher in the big leagues, though with declining results in recent seasons. His ground ball rate has been fairly consistently near 50% and his walk rate has usually been a bit higher than average. The strikeouts have been high at times but there’s been a clear downward trend. He peaked at 33% in 2020 but that figure dropped to 25.4% in 2021, 23.7% in 2022 and 22.4% in 2023.
Last year, he started with the Diamondbacks but landed on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation in the middle of April. He stayed there for about three months, getting reinstated in July but was released in early August. Around the IL stint, he tossed 13 2/3 innings with a 5.93 ERA and 12.5% strikeout rate in that small sample. Based on his minor league numbers this year, it’s possible he has put the shoulder problems behind him and is back in good form.
Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images
Poll: American League Playoff Outlook
We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Mariners and Twins were firmly in playoff position while the eventual AL West champion Astros were in fourth place in the division and seven games under .500.
If the season ended today, the Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, and Twins would be your playoff teams in the American League this year. With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix?
Here’s a look at a few of the options, listed in order of record entering play today:
Houston Astros (22-20)
Houston’s first season in a post-Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman world has been an uneven one. Jose Altuve does not look like the difference-maker he once was in his age-35 season. He’s hitting .256/.302/.369 (90 wRC+) and has effectively played at replacement level. His batted-ball profile suggests he may even be a bit fortunate to have the modest rate stats he currently possesses. Yordan Alvarez is injured, Yainer Diaz is well-below average at the plate, and neither Christian Walker nor Cam Smith is producing the way Houston hoped.
On the positive side, Isaac Paredes (141 wRC+) and Jeremy Pena (139 wRC+) have both been excellent at the plate. Hunter Brown is looking like an early Cy Young candidate, and the late-inning duo of Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Alvarez can get healthy and the team can find some outfield help this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston make its tenth consecutive postseason.
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Entering the season, the Rangers looked like they had an excellent offense that would be held down by questions about the pitching staff. The reality they’ve faced this year is the opposite: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Joc Pederson have all been somewhere between disappointing and terrible. Corey Seager has been injured, and Evan Carter started the year in the minors. Josh Jung, Josh Smith, and Wyatt Langford have been the only standout performers in the lineup so far this year.
That’s been offset by phenomenal performances in the rotation despite injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker. Jacob deGrom is back and striking out a third of batters like it’s 2019, but he’s arguably the #3 starter in a rotation where Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even emergency addition Patrick Corbin is turning back the clock with a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. If the Rangers’ vaunted offense can wake up a bit, it’s easy to imagine the 2023 World Series champs making a run.
The Athletics (22-21)
John Fisher’s aggressive offseason after abandoning Oakland for West Sacramento is paying off in the standings, though it’s mostly been due to young players breaking out. Jacob Wilson is looking like a unicorn in the mold of Luis Arraez. Tyler Soderstrom has emerged as a breakout slugger. Shea Langeliers is in the midst of a career year at the dish.
The pitching is cause for concern, but Gunnar Hoglund has looked good in his first taste of big league action, while both Luis Severino and Mason Miller have peripherals that suggest their results should improve with time. Three of last year’s most productive players — Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker — have taken steps backward, however. That will limit the club’s potential if they can’t get back on track.
Toronto Blue Jays (22-22)
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now in the fold for life, now all the Blue Jays have to do is win with him. The returns on that front are mixed. Veterans like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are doing their best to make everyone forget about their age, but the performances of longer-term pieces like Anthony Santander, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios are deeply concerning. Jeff Hoffman has been among baseball’s best closers so far and Bo Bichette is an above-average hitter again, but Alejandro Kirk has been pedestrian at the plate and Guerrero’s 131 wRC+, while terrific relative to the rest of the league, represents a major step back from last year’s 165. A healthy and effective return from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer would go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, but players like Santander and Berrios will need to get going if playoff baseball is to return to Canada this year.
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
After pushing in by adding Garrett Crochet and Bregman this winter, the Red Sox entered the year looking like one of the AL’s best teams. While they haven’t exactly been bad, the season certainly hasn’t worked out that way so far. Crochet and Bregman are both as-advertised or better, and Wilyer Abreu is looking like a bona fide lefty slugger to pair with Rafael Devers.
Kristian Campbell has begun to cool off after a torrid start, however, and the rotation injuries have begun to pile up. It’s anyone’s guess who will be playing first base on any given day. Triston Casas is out for the year. Romy Gonzalez is on the injured list. Devers doesn’t sound keen on another position change. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door in the minors, and perhaps their eventual debuts will be the spark this team needs to get back into the playoff mix.
The Rest Of The Field
The five teams mentioned above are all within two games of a Wild Card spot, but the rest of the AL can’t be counted out. The Rays will benefit from the eventual returns of players like Ha-Seong Kim and Shane McClanahan, but they need more offense from key pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero. The Orioles should have the lineup to compete, but they have some key bats struggling and will need to figure out their disastrous pitching staff to get back into the race. The Angels have faded after a hot start, but players like Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward should start hitting eventually. The White Sox still have an abysmal offense, but the rotation has been surprisingly solid with Rule 5 pick Shane Smith in particular looking like a steal.
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Which of the teams outside of the AL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Current Non-Playoff Team Is Most Likely To Make The Postseason In 2025?
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Boston Red Sox 27% (1,248)
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Texas Rangers 20% (947)
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Houston Astros 20% (922)
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Athletics 9% (407)
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Toronto Blue Jays 8% (374)
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The current six teams in playoff position will hold on and reach the postseason. 7% (336)
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Baltimore Orioles 4% (208)
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Tampa Bay Rays 2% (110)
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Chicago White Sox 2% (85)
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Los Angeles Angels 1% (66)
Total votes: 4,703