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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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The Yankees knocked off the Guardians by a 5-1 margin this evening, taking two elimination games to advance past Cleveland. New York is back in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2019.

Awaiting them tomorrow: an Astros juggernaut that has had one of the better runs of playoff success in recent history. Houston has gotten to the ALCS in six straight seasons. The first of those seasons was their now-infamous run to a World Series that was later revealed to be aided by a sign-stealing operation. Houston has barely missed a beat in the half-decade since then, though, playing for the pennant every year. The Astros claimed the pennant in both 2019 and 2021 (eliminating the Yankees during the former season), and while they’ve not managed to win a World Series since 2017, they’ve joined the 1990’s Braves as the only teams to reach six consecutive Championship Series.

Houston has home field advantage after a 106-win regular season, claiming the AL’s top seed in the second half after an historically great first few months by the Yankees. The ’Stros swept their division-rival Mariners last week, earning three off days in the process. Their pitching staff should essentially be lined up as desired, and they’ll turn to presumptive Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander tomorrow evening. The Yankees will answer with Jameson Taillon for Game One after using top two starters Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes on Sunday and today, respectively, to survive the Guardians.

The Yankees, anchored by an all-time great season from Aaron Judge, led all American League teams with 807 runs scored. Houston finished third in that category, plating 737 runs. New York finished second in the Junior Circuit behind the Blue Jays in on-base percentage at .325, while the Astros placed fourth at .319. The Yankees finished second in slugging (again behind Toronto) at .426, while Houston was just behind at .424.

While New York had a slight advantage offensively, the Astros were clearly the best pitching team in the American League. They led the league with a 2.95 rotation ERA, a half-run better than the second-place Rays. New York came in third at 3.51. Astros and Yankees starters each fanned 24.8% of opponents (with the Astros leading the league by a fraction of a percentage point). Houston’s bullpen was also number one in strikeout percentage at 28.3%, while the Yankees checked in sixth at 24.2%. Houston (2.80) and New York (2.97) finished first and second, respectively, in bullpen ERA.

It’s a battle of the two teams that have looked to be the best in the American League, in some order, from start to finish. Yesterday, MLBTR readers weighed in on an NLCS that took the exact opposite form. In a battle of the Senior Circuit’s fifth and sixth seeds, the readership gave a 56-44 edge to the Padres over the Phillies.  We’ll now put forth the same question for the American League. Which team is headed to the World Series: Astros or Yankees?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL Championship Series?
Astros 67.93% (6,594 votes)
Yankees 32.07% (3,113 votes)
Total Votes: 9,707

 

White Sox Interview Joe Espada In Managerial Search

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The White Sox interviewed Astros bench coach Joe Espada today as part of their managerial search, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chicago has also reached out to Braves third base coach Ron Washington, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (on Twitter). It isn’t clear whether Washington plans to interview.

Espada becomes the second known candidate to sit down with Chicago. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported last week that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol also had an interview set up with the Sox at some point. Both Espada and Grifol also interviewed for the Marlins vacancy this week, and the latter is a candidate to assume Kansas City’s vacant managerial position as well.

The 47-year-old Espada has never managed in the majors, but he’s certainly drawn a fair bit of interest on that front. The Puerto Rico native was reportedly a finalist in the Mets search that eventually led to Buck Showalter last winter, and he’s gotten past looks from the A’s, Giants, Cubs and Twins, among others. While he’s not gotten a managerial nod, Espada has held the bench coach role for a number of excellent Houston teams going back to 2018. He’s worked under both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker, demonstrating the value multiple skippers have placed on his input.

Over the weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that the Sox preferred to hire a veteran manager to replace Tony La Russa. The interviews with Grifol and Espada suggest they’re not ruling out first-time candidates early in the process, at least. Still, it’s notable that Washington does have a fair bit of experience in the role. He managed the Rangers between 2007-14, leading Texas to back-to-back AL pennants in 2011-12. The 70-year-old has spent the past six seasons on the Atlanta staff as Brian Snitker’s third base coach.

Marlins Interview Joe Espada, Pedro Grifol For Manager

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The Marlins will interview Astros bench coach Joe Espada for their vacant manager position today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets. He’s the second known candidate to interview, after The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol had also interviewed with the Marlins.

Espada, 47, was drafted in the second round of the 1996 draft by the Athletics and spent nine seasons in the minors. He made it as high as Triple-A but never got received a call up to the major leagues. After retiring in 2007, he quickly turned to coaching and held coaching and front office positions with the Marlins and Yankees before being named Astros bench coach in 2017.

Espada is a well respected member of the Astros coaching staff and has long been considered a manager in waiting. He’s already been interviewed by numerous major league teams and was a finalist for the recent Mets and Giants vacancies.

He’ll join Grifol as the only other known candidate to have an interview. It had already been reported that his current employers, the Royals, as well as the White Sox have interest in him, but the Marlins are the first known team to have given him an interview. Grifol, 53 next month, has followed a similar career trajectory to Espada. He spent nine seasons in the Mets and Twins minor leagues systems without reaching the majors, but has found success as a coach. He’s been with the Royals since 2013 but, like Espada, has been a candidate for a number of vacant managerial posts, including the recent Tigers and Orioles positions.

The Marlins are seeking a new manager after mutually agreeing to part with Don Mattingly at the end of the 2022 season. Mattingly led the team for seven seasons, but their 31-29 finish in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season was the only time they had a winning record during his tenure.

Astros Announce ALDS Roster

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The Astros put up a 106-56 record this year, cruising to a second straight AL West title, a bye through the Wild Card round and a sixth consecutive postseason appearance.

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The Astros have a well-rounded roster but arguably the most-impressive part of it this year has been the starting pitching. The club’s starters threw a combined 950 innings this year, easily the most in baseball, with Cleveland’s 907 frames a distant second. Houston’s starting core didn’t just provide quantity, as the quality was there as well. Their 2.95 ERA was bested only by the Dodgers, who put up a 2.75 mark but in a smaller workload of 870 1/3 innings. Advanced metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA actually pegged the Astros’ starters at being a smidge better than their counterparts in Los Angeles.

Even during the regular season, the club’s rotation was so strong that a solid starter like Cristian Javier was bumped to the bullpen for a time. In a short playoff series, that gives the club plenty of flexibility. This year’s ALDS has an odd schedule that features off-days after both Game 1 and Game 2. That means Verlander could start Game 1 and then also take the ball in Game 4 on regular rest. With Valdez and McCullers starting the games in between, that pushes Javier, Garcia and Urquidy to the bullpen or perhaps starting a fifth game, though Valdez could also be tapped to go on short rest.

Perhaps the most notable thing about this roster is what it lacks: left-handed pitching. With Valdez being the only southpaw on the roster, the club will have no lefties available out of the bullpen. That’s nothing new, however, as the only lefties other than Framber to throw more than ten innings for the Astros this year were Blake Taylor and deadline-acquisition Will Smith. Taylor has missed most of the season due to injury and last appeared with the big league club in June, but the omission of Smith is notable. Acquired in a deadline deal that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith was struggling a bit in the first half, registering a 4.38 ERA prior to the trade. He righted the ship somewhat after, putting up a 3.27 ERA after becoming an Astro, though it evidently wasn’t enough to get him a roster spot. Despite playing with a lack of lefties through most of the season, Houston still held left-handed hitters to a line of .202/.272/.319, meaning there’s little reason for them to worry.

Another notable absence is Phil Maton, who pitched to a 3.84 ERA over 65 2/3 innings this year. He will be done for the year after punching a locker in frustration last week and breaking a bone in his hand.

Phil Maton Done For The Season Due To Hand Surgery

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Astros right-hander Phil Maton told reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that he fractured the fifth metacarpal in his right pinkie finger after punching his locker on Wednesday. He has already had surgery and won’t be able to return this season.

Maton, 29, has just finished his sixth MLB season, throwing 65 2/3 innings out of Houston’s bullpen. He registered a 3.84 ERA along with a 26% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 38.2% ground ball rate. He moved into higher leverage positions this season, earning 14 holds after never previously cracking double digits.

Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweeted video of Maton’s comments, where the reliever relays that he punched his locker because he was upset with how his outing went. It’s unknown if it’s related, but Wednesday was the final game of the season wherein his brother, Nick Maton of the Phillies, singled off him. Phil goes on to describe his actions as “short-sighted” and “selfish” before hoping that his absence doesn’t hurt the team. He says he’s expected to be in a cast for the next eight weeks but will be ready for Spring Training.

The Astros are set to begin their ALDS series against the Mariners and will now do so without Maton. He had a strong showing with Houston in the playoffs last year, throwing 12 1/3 innings with a 0.73 ERA, though he won’t be able to contribute this time around. Maton is earning $1.55MM this year and can be retained for one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Maton would earn a raise into the vicinity of $2.5MM for next year.

Giants Hire Pete Putila As General Manager

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The Giants announced Monday night they’ve hired Pete Putila as their new general manager. Putila, formerly an Astros assistant GM, steps in as the #2 in the front office hierarchy under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Previous GM Scott Harris departed a few weeks ago to take over baseball operations with the Tigers.

Zaidi informed reporters last week the team was hoping to have a GM in place by early November. San Francisco struck far earlier than that, nabbing the well-regarded Putila away from Houston. “Being where we are and facing a big offseason, I think it’s going to be a great thing for us to have some fresh perspectives in the organization,” Zaidi said at the time. “A new general manager could certainly bring a fresh perspective on our roster, player development and evaluation philosophies.”

A West Virginia graduate, Putila spent more than a decade in the Houston front office. Originally hired as an intern in 2011, he quickly moved through the front office under former GM Jeff Lunhow. He spent a fair amount of time working in the build-up of the Houston farm system during the Astros rebuild, earning a promotion to director of player development by 2016. Towards the end of the 2019 campaign, Putila earned a bump to assistant GM.

The following offseason, the Astros parted ways with Lunhow in the wake of the public revelation of the extent of the 2017 sign-stealing operation. New GM James Click kept Putila in a high-ranking front office position, however, reflecting the value a pair of baseball operations leaders placed on his input.

Putila was a candidate for the Giants GM search back in 2019. San Francisco ended up poaching Harris from the Cubs front office that time around, but Putila apparently made a favorable impression on Zaidi and his high-ranking staff at the time. He also garnered some consideration in the Pirates GM search that winter, but Pittsburgh eventually tabbed Ben Cherington to lead baseball ops.

It’s a pivotal offseason for the Giants, who disappointed with an 81-81 season this year. Last winter, San Francisco mostly focused on retaining the core of a team that claimed 107 wins and an NL West title in 2021, aside from replacing Kevin Gausman with Carlos Rodón in free agency. There figures to be a fair bit more turnover this winter, with Zaidi on the record about his desire to get a younger, more athletic position player group. Putila will step into the biggest role of his career, helping Zaidi oversee that likely aggressive winter.

Dustin Garneau Announces Retirement

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Former major league catcher Dustin Garneau took to Twitter this afternoon to announce his retirement. “Hanging them up. Thank you to everyone who had an impact on my career,” Garneau wrote. “To my wife for always being by my side through the ups and downs. To my agent (Marc Kligman) for always being there and making me a part of your family as well. And to my friends and family who were by my side.”

A 19th-round pick of the Rockies in the 2009 draft, Garneau reached the majors for the first time six years later. The Cal State Fullerton product broke into the big leagues just after his 28th birthday in August 2015. It marked the first of eight straight years in which he’d get to the highest level. Garneau was a prototypical depth catcher, never appearing in more than 41 MLB games in a season but donning six different uniforms along the way.

After two seasons in Colorado, Garneau bounced to the A’s on waivers. He’d find himself in the transactions logs fairly frequently thereafter, moving to the White Sox, Angels, back to the A’s and Astros through 2020. He returned to the Rockies on a minor league deal in 2021 but was dealt to the Tigers, with whom he spent the past couple seasons. That included eight games early this season, but he spent most of the year in Triple-A before reaching minor league free agency last week.

Altogether, Garneau appeared in 168 major league games. He hit .205/.285/.373 over 506 plate appearances, connecting on 15 home runs and 28 doubles. Six of those longballs came in a 20-game stint with Detroit in 2021. Over parts of eight Triple-A campaigns, the righty-swinging backstop was a .248/.329/.480 hitter. He played parts of 14 professional seasons. Best wishes to Garneau in all the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Latest On James Click, Dusty Baker

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The Astros wrapped up the top seed in the American League last night, having already secured 102 wins. It’s Houston’s second straight AL West title and third playoff appearance in as many years under general manager James Click and skipper Dusty Baker. The Astros have advanced at least as far as the AL Championship Series in each of the past two seasons, and the AL road to the World Series will again run through Houston.

Given that immense success, it’d seem to go without saying that Houston was satisfied with the franchise’s trajectory. However, both Click and Baker are in the final year of their contracts, and some uncertainty about the organization’s leadership future looms. Click signed a three-year deal when he took over baseball operations in February 2020, while the club inked Baker to a one-year extension last offseason. Owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link) last month he’s “aware both contracts are up and we’ll address them at the end of the season.”

While there’s no questioning the team’s on-field success, it does not seem a mere formality that both Click and Baker will be retained. During an appearance on the Houston Chronicle’s Texas Sports Nation podcast last weekend (Twitter link), Chandler Rome noted the contract status for Click and Baker “has been a topic that has been whispered about in the Astros organization, people both in and out of the clubhouse, since the beginning of the season.” Rome added that, particularly in Click’s case, “everybody that I talk to (emphasizes) that this is not just a rubber-stamp thing. This is not just, ’we’re going to extend him and everyone’s going to be happy and be merry.’ There is some real speculation, some real intrigue, that James Click is not going to be back with the Astros after this season.”

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined the situation yesterday, writing that some friction between Crane and Click could explain the organization’s hesitance to hand him a long-term extension. According to Rosenthal, Crane has taken on a very active role in baseball operations and tends to favor more bold additions than Click, whose approach to the roster is generally more restrained. Rosenthal notes that Click and Baker sometimes differ on the extent to which analytics should be integrated into in-game decisions but suggests that’s not as notable as whatever divide there may be between Click and Crane.

Both Click and Baker were brought in under unexpected circumstances. After the extent of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing operation was made public during the 2019-20 offseason, MLB handed down suspensions for then-GM Jeff Lunhow and manager A.J. Hinch. Houston promptly fired both after the league’s investigation. Crane tabbed Baker as Hinch’s replacement, then hired Click out of the Rays front office a few days later. It was a reversal of the typical course of action, in which the front office head plays a key role in deciding on the manager.

Crane has maintained he had no knowledge of the team’s sign-stealing operation. It’s not clear whether he’s subsequently taken on a more active role in baseball operations as a direct response to the fallout from that scheme. Either way, Rosenthal writes that “Crane does not trust Click the way he trusted Luhnow, with whom he worked for eight seasons.”

To be clear, neither Rome nor Rosenthal suggests Click’s or Baker’s time in the organization is definitively nearing its end. The two have adeptly led the team past the sign-stealing fallout with little drop-off in performance. They’re as well-positioned as any club (aside from perhaps the Dodgers) to make a deep postseason run in 2022. Both Rome and Rosenthal point out that it’d seem unlikely Crane makes any changes at the top if the Astros find playoff success this year, particularly if they win the World Series.

It’s nevertheless notable that questions persist given the consistent excellence the Astros have maintained for the past three years. If ownership does decide to tie Click’s and/or Baker’s future to the results of this year’s postseason, there’d be a lot riding on the extremely small sample of a playoff series. That’s not a great way to make decisions of this magnitude, but the reported tension in the Minute Maid Park offices will at least lead to some speculation about the franchise’s direction until Click’s and Baker’s situations are decided at year’s end.

Astros’ Josh James Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Right-hander Josh James underwent flexor tendon surgery this week, the Astros announced to The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  James was already on the Astros’ 60-day injured list, and his surgery now adds to an injury-plagued few seasons for the 29-year-old.

James has spent his entire career in the Astros organization, after being a 34th-round draft pick in 2014.  The righty made his MLB debut with 23 innings in 2018, and then took on a larger role in tossing 61 1/3 innings for the American League champions in 2019.  While James’ 4.70 ERA and 13.2% walk rate that season were nothing special, his 97.2 mph velocity and his big 37.6% strikeout rate seemingly made him a live arm to watch in the future.

However, James has only thrown 22 1/3 total innings in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022.  James underwent hip surgery in October 2020, battled hamstring problems that delayed his hip rehab in 2021, and this season has been sidelined by back problems and a right lat strain.  Over 27 2/3 innings in the minors this season, James has struggled to a 6.51 ERA and continued to issue too many free passes.

The flexor tendon procedure now creates doubt about James’ potential readiness for the start of Spring Training or the start of the 2023 season.  It already seemed likely that Houston would move on from James this winter, as he is due a minimal raise (from his $800K salary in 2022) in his second year of arbitration eligibility.  With another surgery now impacting James’ future, he seems like a logical non-tender candidate, though the Astros could look to re-sign him at a lower salary or on a minor league contract.

Michael Brantley Intends To Play In 2023

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Astros outfielder Michael Brantley underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in August but told reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that he intends to play next year and should be ready for Spring Training.

Brantley, who will turn 36 in May, has played in 14 MLB seasons at this point and has designs on a 15th. His career has been defined by stretches where he’s one of the best hitters in the game but intermixed with extended injury absences. In 2016 and 2017, he only played 101 total games but bounced back with a nice 2018 season, hitting .309/.364/.468 in 143 games with Cleveland.

He parlayed that fine season into a two-year, $32MM contract with the Astros. He hit .311/.372/.503 over 148 games in 2019 while avoiding any trips to the injured list. He had a single 10-day minimum stint on the IL in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, getting into 46 out of 60 games and hitting .300/.364/.476.

The Astros were evidently pleased with how that contract played out as they gave him the same deal again, $32MM over another two seasons. Brantley made a couple trips to the IL in 2021 but without missing significant time, getting into 121 games and hitting well yet again, producing a line of .311/.362/.437. He was on the verge of another solid season here this year, hitting .288/.370/.416 before the shoulder injury cut his campaign short after just 64 contests.

That second Astros contract is now winding down, with Brantley heading back to the open market. It’s possible that, once he recovers from the surgery, he will have to hold some kind of a showcase for teams to demonstrate his health. We saw this storyline play out a year ago with another Astro, when Justin Verlander was coming back from Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2021 but then was able to hold a showcase and impress enough teams to garner significant interest. In the end, he agreed to return to the Astros and has had an excellent season here in 2022.

Since the Astros have already shown a willingness to bet on one of their guys bouncing back from a serious surgery, it’s certainly possible they could do so again. For Brantley’s part, he spoke to the media today and had nothing but good things to say about the organization, as relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26. It seems a reunion is certainly in the cards, though it will likely be at least somewhat contingent on Brantley’s continued progress.

With Brantley out of action, the Astros picked up Trey Mancini at the deadline to improve their outfield picture. He is likely heading into free agency himself, however, given that he has a mutual option for 2022, with those arrangements rarely exercised by both sides. If Brantley were to return to Houston, the club could potentially go with the same alignment they had earlier in the year, with Kyle Tucker in right, Chas McCormick in center and Brantley sharing left field and designated hitter duties with Yordan Alvarez.

Financially, there would be nothing preventing the Astros from bringing Brantley back. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the club has a 2022 payroll of around $179MM but only about $109MM committed for 2023. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players, but there should still be some budget to work with even once those are factored in.

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