Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Thursday
The question of whether Shohei Ohtani can successfully lead a big league rotation and serve as a legitimate member of its offense on a semi-regular basis is one of the most fascinating storylines in recent memory, and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports takes an excellent look at the viability of that scenario. Brown spoke to GM, scouts, coaches and players throughout the league, and though the prevailing opinion was that while it would be difficult and unlikely, there’s also a sentiment that those in the industry are nonetheless rooting for Ohtani to succeed at both.
Rays righty Chris Archer tells Brown that a successful two-way player would “change our perspective” on the game. Archer and free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth both chatted with Brown about their daily schedules and recovery programs, which Brown uses as a means of illustrating the challenges of Ohtani successfully serving as a starter and a DH/outfielder. Brown also talks with former pitcher/outfielder Rick Ankiel about the summer he spent as a starter and a DH in A-ball. Ankiel suggests that the true question isn’t one of whether Ohtani can physically handle a two-way role but rather one of whether Ohtani can thrive in both areas. “Can he be great at both here?” Ankiel asks rhetorically. “That depends on how good he really is.”
Some other notes on the game’s most intriguing free-agent-to-be, who should be formally posted by Saturday…
- The Athletics can only offer $300K to Ohtani after exceeding last year’s allotted international pool, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports a detailed account of their pitch to Ohtani. Oakland is will to not only let Ohtani hit but also play the outfield on occasion, she notes, and their sales pitch also centers around an emerging young core of comparably aged players to Ohtani — led by Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. The A’s hope to be in a new ballpark by 2023, if not sooner and are hoping to sell Ohtani on helping them usher in that new facility as one of the faces of the team. They also highlighted manager Bob Melvin’s relationship with Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui as well as Oakland’s relative proximity to Japan, among many other aspects.
- Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that the Angels have “earmarked” the $1.315MM they now have in their international pool after today’s trade with the Braves for a pursuit of Ohtani.
Earlier Updates
- The Phillies haven’t been mentioned in connection with Ohtani, but MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes that they do plan to take their shot at landing him, even if they’re considered long shots. The Phils have $900K to offer Ohtani in terms of a signing bonus, and new skipper Gabe Kapler spent a season playing in Nippon Professional Baseball, giving him some familiarity with Japanese baseball and culture. Zolecki also notes that former Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel, a senior advisor in the front office, enjoyed an excellent six-year career in NPB and is likely a known name for Ohtani, even if Manuel wrapped up his playing career before Ohtani was born. Nonetheless, the Phils will also need to convince Ohtani that their rebuilding club is near contention, and Zolecki further notes that other markets like New York, Los Angeles and Seattle have considerably larger Japanese populations and communities.
- Pennsylvania’s other MLB club may also be a long shot, but Pirates GM Neal Huntington still spoke optimistically in his team’s ability to make a competitive pitch for Ohtani in a recent appearance with Chris Mueller and Joe Starkey on 93.7 The Fan. “We are going to do everything in our power, and hopefully, have him honor us with the ability to get beyond the written presentation, get beyond the initial 30-club presentation and really dig into why it would be an honor for us to have him become a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates,” said Huntington. In terms of potential bonus offer, the Bucs are one of the better-positioned teams, with a bit more than $2.2MM to offer, but Ohtani is widely expected to make far more through endorsements than his initial signing bonus anyhow, so the bonus itself may not be an enormous separator.
- David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago writes that the Cubs have sent scouts to Japan to watch Ohtani for weeks at a time in the past, and some rivals believe the Cubs to be a serious threat to land him. One exec remarks to Kaplan that president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have success in setting up support systems for international stars thanks to their acquisition of Daisuke Matsuzaka with the Red Sox in the 2006-07 offseason. The Cubs are capped at a $300K signing bonus, though again, that doesn’t appear to be as significant a strike against them as it would be in the pursuit of a more traditional free agent.
- Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals crafted a presentation in English, which international scouting assistant Taisuke Sato then translated to Japanese for Ohtani’s consumption. Janes notes that the Nationals, who are also capped at $300K, cannot compete financially in terms of signing bonus and don’t have previous experience in signing Japanese players under GM Mike Rizzo to demonstrate a proven plan for helping an NPB star transition to the Majors. That said, the team has very recently made a significant investment in its medical staff, boasts a new Spring Training facility and a fairly new ballpark in D.C., and can attempt to sell Ohtani on the allure of joining an immediate contender with an open rotation spot. Janes paints the Nats as long shots but notes that they, like all 30 other clubs, will at least perform their due diligence in attempting to entire Ohtani.
Mark Appel, Alberto Tirado Clear Waivers
The Phillies announced that right-handers Mark Appel and Alberto Tirado have been outrighted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after clearing waivers. The pair was designated for assignment last week as Philadelphia set its roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.
Now 26 years of age, Appel was the top overall pick in the 2013 draft by Houston, who surprised some a year prior by passing over Appel and taking Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in 2012. (Appel did not sign in 2012 after being selected eighth overall and returned to the ’13 draft).
Appel went from Houston to Philadelphia in the Ken Giles trade and has struggled with the Phils as much or more than he did with the Astros. In 188 2/3 career innings of Triple-A work, Appel has pitched to a 4.82 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9, battling shoulder and elbow troubles along the way.
As for Tirado, the 22-year-old ranked as high as eighth in the Blue Jays’ system during his prospect tenure, per Baseball America. The Phillies picked him up in the 2015 trade that sent Ben Revere to Toronto, but he’s largely stalled out at the Class-A Advanced level. Tirado was showing promise at that level, albeit with extreme control issues, in 2015 when the Jays traded him. He’s repeated the level twice now without significantly better results, however. While he did make his Double-A debut this past season, the bulk of Tirado’s year was spent at Class-A Advanced, where he logged a 3.69 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 5.4 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings of relief.
What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation
As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.
He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.
Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.
He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.
The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.
Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.
He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.
The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.
As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.
Jorge Alfaro Changes Agents
Phillies catcher Jorge Alfaro recently changed agents, according to Robert Murray of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He will now be represented by ISE Baseball, which has a long list of other MLB clients.
Alfaro was seen as a significant prospect when he came over to Philadelphia as part of the Cole Hamels trade. He is still just 24 years of age and produced a strong .318/.360/.514 batting line in 114 MLB plate appearances last year.
That said, there are some questions facing the out-of-options receiver. He had struggled quite a bit earlier in the year at Triple-A and carried his poor plate discipline with him into the bigs. Alfaro rode an unsustainable .420 batting average on balls in play to produce the impressive slash line; meanwhile, he struck out 33 times while drawing just three free passes.
Though the Phillies likely still hope to take a shot on Alfaro, who comes with a fairly lofty prospect pedigree, the team also has another promising young receiver in Andrew Knapp. And Cameron Rupp has established himself as a useful MLB catcher, too, with a still-low salary increasing his appeal. It’ll be interesting to see how the Phils manage things over the winter and into camp.
Alfaro joins Lewis Brinson as young former Rangers prospects changing agents in recent days. Both are reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Phillies Name Pedro Guerrero Assistant Hitting Coach
- The Phillies have named 28-year-old Pedro Guerrero, a former Dodgers minor league infielder, as their new assistant hitting coach, per a club announcement. As Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, that suggests that Rick Kranitz, who was the team’s assistant pitching coach in 2017, will be named the team’s new pitching coach for the 2018 season. The Phillies have previously announced that Kranitz would be on the staff next year but haven’t revealed his role with the team. However, they’re only allowed to add two more coaches before reaching the maximum allotment and still need a pitching coach, first base coach and bench coach. As for Guerrero, he’s an outside-the-box hire, to be sure. But, Guerrero has already spent two seasons as a minor league bench coach in the Dodgers organization and has some familiarity with newly minted skipper Gabe Kapler from the pair’s time together in Los Angeles.
Phillies Claim Engelb Vielma, Designate Mark Appel & Alberto Tirado
The Phillies have claimed infielder Engelb Vielma off waivers from the Giants, per a team announcement. Philadelphia also designated righties Mark Appel and Alberto Tirado for assignment while outrighting lefty Elniery Garcia.
To round out a busy day of 40-man moves, the Phillies also added righties Seranthony Dominguez, Franklyn Kilome, and Jose Taveras, as well as lefty Ranger Suarez, to their MLB roster.
Vielma is seen as a gifted defender. But his switch-hitting bat has yet to develop. Still just 23, Vielma ended up with San Francisco through a late-season waiver claim from the Twins. He had earned his first promotion to Triple-A earlier in the year, but slashed just .206/.233/.260 in his 314 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors..
Appel, 26, was the first overall draft pick in 2013. He landed in Philadelphia along with righty Vince Velasquez and others in the swap that sent reliever Ken Giles to the Astros. At the time of the swap, he was seen as something of a change-of-scenery candidate. But he never really found his footing with the Phils while dealing with arm problems. In 2017, he pitched to a 5.27 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 over 82 Triple-A frames.
The 22-year-old Tirado was also once considered a significant prospect, but hasn’t shown enough to hang onto a MLB roster spot. He pitched to a 3.69 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 63 1/3 High-A innings last year. Despite those marginal numbers, Tirado earned his first shot at Double-A, but coughed up 19 walks against just eight strikeouts in a dozen frames.
Phillies Interested In Jake McGee
- The Phillies are one of the teams eyeing left-hander Jake McGee, reports Morosi, who notes that the reliever was once teammates with new Philadelphia skipper Gabe Kapler in Tampa Bay. With Colorado in 2017, McGee, 31, posted a 3.61 ERA and logged 9.1 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings. Along the way, he was effective against both righty- and lefty-swingers, the latter of whom had their way against Phillies relievers (.270/.347/.459).
Coach/Manager Notes: Ausmus, Blanco, Gott
Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) had a phone Q&A with Brad Ausmus. The former Tigers skipper explains his rationale in taking a year off from the field. Among his reasons for a hiatus is the ability to be more involved in his daughters’ lives. Ausmus also mentioned that the Red Sox managerial opening he interviewed for would have been a perfect fit due to a house up in Cape Cod and an emotional connection to the franchise, so he would have accepted the job in Boston. He was unwilling to comment on his interviews with other franchises, including the Mets. When asked about his time with the Tigers, Ausmus mentioned that he has no hard feelings about the way his tenure in Detroit ended, adding an anecdote about his disappointment that the Tigers didn’t win it all. “The only thing that bothered me the most is that we didn’t win,” Ausmus tells Strang. “We didn’t win a championship. That’s the only thing that stung.” The piece gives great insight into Ausmus’ experience and emotions.
Other notes about coaches around baseball…
- The Nationals’ hire of Henry Blanco as their new bullpen coach finalized their coaching staff for 2018. Blanco will leave his position as the quality assurance coach with the Cubs to join the Nats organization. Being that Washington’s new skipper Dave Martinez will also be coming over from the Cubs, the prior relationship between the two is a definite plus, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier notes in the above link.
- The Phillies have announced that Jim Gott will fill their bullpen coach opening. As Todd Zolecki of MLB.com notes, the 58-year-old Gott served as the pitching coach for the Angels from 2010-2012, and has spent the past five seasons as the Angels’ minor league pitching coordinator. Gott pitched in the major leagues from 1982-1995 and had a lifetime 3.87 ERA, notching 837 strikeouts against 466 walks.
Phillies Have Shown Past Interest In Cardinals' Outfielders
- The Cardinals are looking to trade multiple outfielders given their logjam of upper-level talent, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Phillies, Orioles and Giants have had interest in some of the Cards’ outfielders in the past, Goold notes, adding that Randal Grichuk is the outfielder that “comes up the most often.” Goold also reports that the Dodgers tried to pry Tommy Pham away from the Cardinals prior to the non-waiver trade deadline but were unsuccessful in doing so. In addition to Grichuk and Pham, the Cards have Stephen Piscotty, Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez at the big league level. Beyond that, younger options include Harrison Bader, Magneuris Sierra, Randy Arozarena (who Goold profiles at the beginning of his column) and Tyler O’Neill.
Early Markets For Santana, Morrison Taking Shape
TODAY: The early interest in Santana is robust, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, who writes that Santana “is thought to be drawing interest from as many as 10 teams.”
Among those reaching out to his representatives, per Heyman, are the Angels as well as two eyebrow-raising NL East clubs: the Mets and Phillies. The New York franchise has had its moments of frustration with Dominic Smith, though it would remain surprising to see him blocked entirely by a player that likely can’t be utilized anywhere other than first base. Mike Puma of the New York Post does tweet, though, that the club could send Smith back to Triple-A and eventually shop him. And the Phillies would appear to be set at first with Rhys Hoskins, though he could in theory be shifted to the corner outfield after experimenting there last year. (Of course, the team has other young players in the outfield and indications are that the preference is not to disturb that mix.)
YESTERDAY: The Red Sox have an obvious hole at first base in their lineup, and they’re set to begin the preliminary stages of filling that vacancy at this week’s GM Meetings. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweets that Boston will sit down with Carlos Santana‘s agents at Octagon, while Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports that the Sox have also lined up a meeting with Logan Morrison‘s representatives at ISE Baseball.
Boston isn’t alone in eyeing that pair, however. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that the Angels are considering a run at Morrison as they look to add some left-handed punch to their lineup. Morrison is one of multiple players on Anaheim’s radar, Fletcher notes.
Meanwhile, the Mariners have interest in bringing Santana into the fold, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter). There have yet to be any “substantial” discussions between the two sides, Morosi cautions (as one would expect this early in the offseason), but first base is a definite area of need for the Mariners. Seattle saw both Yonder Alonso and Danny Valencia hit free agency when the season ended, and while Dan Vogelbach represents an internal option, he’s not considered to be a strong defender.
Santana, 32 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best first basemen available on the free-agent market this offseason. While he wouldn’t necessarily provide the huge power bat that many Sox fans covet — he belted a career-high 34 homers in 2016 but saw that mark fall to a more typical 23 homers in 2017 — Santana is an on-base machine who has also worked himself into one of the premier defensive first basemen in the league.
A switch-hitter, Santana batted .259/.363/.455 this past season and has never posted an OBP south of .351 in a season. Santana has walked at a 15.2 percent clip in his career against just a 17 percent strikeout rate (13.2 percent and 14.1 percent, respectively, in 2017). Originally a catcher, Santana eventually moved off the position to first base and has built up a quality reputation there. He was a Gold Glove finalist this past season after registering a +10 Defensive Runs Saved mark and a +4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. The Indians made a qualifying offer to Santana, so he’d cost the Red Sox their second-highest pick in next year’s draft as well as $500K of their international signing pool. The Mariners would have a lighter penalty, only surrendering their third-highest pick.
As for Morrison, he’s a younger option that’ll play most of next season at the age of 30. A longtime top prospect, Morrison’s career never fully took off as hoped in either Miami or in Seattle. However, he rebounded from a slow start with the Rays last year to hit .275/.350/.498 with 14 homers over his final 303 plate appearances before a wrist injury ended his season.
Morrison returned to the Rays as a free agent on a one-year, $2.5MM contract this past offseason and proved to be one of the top bargains in all of baseball. In 601 plate appearances, Morrison posted a .246/.353/.516 line and 38 homers while receiving slightly above-average marks from DRS and UZR himself (+1 from each metric). He doesn’t come with the platoon issues that many left-handed hitters carry, either, as he hammers right-handed opponents and has been a bit above average against lefties over the past two years. Including his strong finish in 2016, Morrison has raked at a .256/.352/.510 pace (130 wRC+) with an 11.8 percent walk rate and a 23.1 percent strikeout rate in 904 plate appearances.
Despite that huge season, the budget-conscious Rays opted not to extend a QO to Morrison. Tampa Bay had already extended a QO to righty Alex Cobb and surely didn’t relish the notion of taking the risk, however small, of two players accepting one-year salaries worth $17.4MM. Morrison now benefits from that decision, though, as he won’t require interested parties to surrender a draft pick or international money upon signing.