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Cardinals, Braves Among Teams That Have Spoken To A’s About Sean Murphy

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A’s catcher Sean Murphy stands as one of the likeliest trade candidates of the offseason, and Oakland is unsurprisingly receiving a fairly wide array of interest in the former Gold Glover. The Cardinals have spoken to the A’s about Murphy, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. They’ve also spoken to the Blue Jays about their catching surplus (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno), per the report.

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that even the Braves — a team ostensibly set behind the plate — have checked in with the A’s about the potential asking price. Murphy has also been linked to the Guardians, White Sox, Rays and Red Sox since the offseason began, and there are assuredly others reaching out to the A’s to throw their hat into the mix.

The Cardinals stand as arguably the most obvious on-paper suitor for Murphy. Franchise icon Yadier Molina has formally retired after a 19-year career, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been candid about his team’s interest in acquiring a new starting catcher. Backup Andrew Knizner is a .204/.292/.288 hitter in parts of four seasons and thus not likely to step into the starter’s role, and while the Cardinals have a promising young prospect in Ivan Herrera, they’re also a win-now club looking to make the most of the remaining prime years of MVP Paul Goldschmidt and third-place finisher Nolan Arenado.

Much of the same logic would apply to a Cardinals pursuit of a Toronto backstop. Jansen is the most heavily speculated target of the bunch, given that he’s “only” controllable for another two seasons, compared to four for Kirk and six for Moreno, but any catching-hungry team would have varying levels of interest in the whole trio. Goold notes that the Jays have been looking for a young, left-handed-hitting outfielder, which the Cards do possess in Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. To this point, there’s no indication that talks with either Oakland or Toronto have meaningfully advanced.

Turning to the Braves and Murphy, it’s not as clean a fit, nor is it a surprise to see Rosenthal characterize the chances of an actual deal manifesting as “slim.” That said, it’s easy enough to see how Murphy, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.5MM in his first arbitration season and is controlled through 2025, would still appeal to Atlanta.

William Contreras’ breakout season at the plate (.278/.354/.506, 20 homers in 376 plate appearances) clearly put him on the map as a potential long-term option, but Contreras’ defensive contributions were far more suspect. He posted negative framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and his 14% caught-stealing rate was among the worst in the league. In 955 big league innings behind the plate, Contreras has posted a rather unsightly -11 Defensive Runs Saved.

That’s not to say Atlanta should or would (in the event of a long-shot Murphy acquisition) move on from Contreras, of course. He has more than enough bat to spend considerable time at designated hitter, and the Braves have experimented with getting him some work in the outfield corners. Speculatively speaking, there’d be room to carry Contreras, Murphy and a third catcher, allowing Murphy to take the bulk of the work and Contreras to rotate between DH, catcher and perhaps some corner outfield work.

The Braves have both Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina signed through the 2023 season, and they hold a 2024 option on d’Arnaud. Pina played in just five games after signing a two-year, $8MM contract, however, as a wrist injury required season-ending surgery early in the year. Rosenthal suggests that the Braves have gotten some trade interest in Pina this offseason, despite that injury. The 35-year-old has long been a light hitter, but his glovework is well regarded. A team looking for a glove-first backup could certainly consider Pina an intriguing option.

A trade of Murphy to Atlanta feels like far more of a long shot than a conventional fit like the ones in St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay or Boston, but the mere fact that the Braves are even pondering the possibility underscores the manner in which Murphy is regarded throughout the league. The 28-year-old hit .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs last season despite playing his home games at the Athletics’ cavernous home park. He slashed .271/.343/.465 on the road. After a so-so start to his 2022 season, Murphy mashed at a .278/.363/.458 slash in his final 409 plate appearances.

By measure of wRC+, Murphy was 22% better than a league-average hitter. Catchers, however, are notoriously below-average hitters on the whole, making Murphy’s contributions all the more impressive. In 2022, the average catcher was 12% worse than the league-average hitter; the gap between Murphy’s bat and that of a garden-variety catcher is enormous.

Adding to the offensive side of his game, Murphy is regarded as a strong defensive backstop. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, has been a plus framer by any publicly available metric, and has nabbed 28% of potential base thieves in his career (including 31% in 2022). That skill set, combined with an affordable 2023 salary and three more seasons of club control, should make him appealing to all but a select few teams with stars entrenched behind the plate. The A’s, squarely in the midst of a rebuild and with prospect Shea Langeliers perhaps ready for a full audition in the Majors, will likely be able command a sizable return for Murphy in the coming weeks or months.

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K – 2022-23 Edition

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Last offseason, I tried to find under-the-radar minor league prospects by looking at how much a hitter walked and struck out. Sometimes, these stats can indicate a hitter has a keen eye at the plate which will help them succeed as they move up the minor league ladder. I used Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez as examples of young players who had strong BB/K rates in the minors who then went on to have greater MLB success than many prospect evaluators had projected.

Looking at 2021 stats, I highlighted players who had 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A and a BB/K rate of 1.00 or higher. Did this help us find hidden gems? Let’s look at the results before moving on to this year’s crop. The names on the list were Alejo Lopez, Isaac Paredes, Steven Kwan, Tyler White, Cooper Hummel and Jonah Bride.

Two of these players had breakout years in 2022. Kwan made his MLB debut and had a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. He provided excellent outfield defense and continued his great work at the plate, walking more than he struck out at the major league level. He had a season strong enough he could have won Rookie of the Year honors in another year, but he had to settle for third this year due to an incredible batch of rookie campaigns that also included Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman. The other breakout was Paredes, who was traded to the Rays in April as part of the Austin Meadows deal. He hit 20 home runs in 111 games while posting walk and strikeout rates that were both better than league average. Paredes is less of a hidden gem since he snuck onto the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 in 2019 and 2020, though he had fallen off in the two subsequent seasons. Kwan never made it onto the top 100 and only made the top 30 among Cleveland farmhands for the first time going into 2022, coming in at #27. FanGraphs, it’s worth noting, was far more bullish, slotting Kwan third in the Guardians system and 57th overall heading into the year.

Most of the rest of the group is TBD, as they only got limited MLB appearances. Lopez was frequently optioned and got into 61 games in the majors, still proving very tough to strike out but not doing much damage when he did connect. Hummel struggled in his first 66 games but still hit very well in the minors, walking in 15.4% of his plate appearances and slashing .310/.423/.527. The Mariners must be intrigued by him, since they just traded Kyle Lewis to get him from the Diamondbacks. Bride made his MLB debut and scuffled in 58 games but hit .342/.453/.568 in the minors while still walking more than he struck out. As for White, he was 31 last year and only really plays first base, making it hard for him to carve out a role on a major league team. He started the year in the Brewers’ system but was acquired by the Braves in a midseason trade. Between the Triple-A teams of the two organizations, he had another decent season at the plate, walking in 16% of his appearances while striking out just 20.1% of the time.

Out of six guys highlighted last year, two became MLB regulars, two didn’t immediately hit the ground running but still hit well in the minors and another two were sort of mediocre. It’s not a perfect system but not a bad shorthand, in my opinion. A common theme you will see with the players below is their strike zone discipline often comes with a lack of power. In order to turn this profile into a breakout, that usually means the hitter needs to get stronger or change their approach slightly. In the case of Paredes, he seems to have started selling out more in 2022, as his strikeout rate climbed but so did his isolated power. Kwan didn’t add power, only going deep six times, but his on-base skills were combined with speed and defense to help him be an all-around producer.

If we look at the 2022 numbers, can we find next year’s Kwan or Paredes? Even if that’s setting our sights too high, some of these guys are Rule 5 eligible and could be candidates to be nabbed in next month’s draft. Let’s take a look at the players with a BB/K rate at 1.00 or above with 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2022.

Michael Stefanic, infielder, Angels, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 2.18

Stefanic got 346 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, walking in 13.9% of them while striking out just 6.4% of the time. He didn’t provide much power, however, hitting only four home runs in that time despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His final batting line there was .314/.422/.425 for a wRC+ of 122. He also got into 25 major league games without finding much success. It’s a somewhat similar profile to another Angels infielder in David Fletcher. Stefanic was an undrafted free agent, has never been on BA’s top 100 and only cracked the Angels’ top 30 for the first time a year ago. He’ll turn 27 in February.

Nick Dunn, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.50

The Cardinals seem to have a knack for turning their lesser draft picks into solid major leaguers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a couple of them on this list. Dunn was selected in the fifth round in 2018 and has never cracked a BA list of top prospects in the system, though he was mentioned at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen called him “a free-swinging Brendan Donovan — same hair and everything.” In 2022, Dunn got 472 plate appearances and walked 13.3% of the time while striking out at just a 8.9% clip. Similar to Stefanic, it hasn’t resulted in much power, with Dunn only hitting seven long balls on the year, which was a career high. He’ll be 26 in January. He’s eligible to be selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

John Nogowski, first base/outfielder, free agent, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.08

Nogowski got some brief MLB looks in 2020 and 2021 and couldn’t do much with them. He split 2022 between Atlanta’s and Washington’s system, getting 483 plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. Similar to the players above him, it didn’t result in much power, as he went deep eight times and produced a batting line of .248/.366/.362. A 34th-round draft pick from 2014, he’s never been on a team prospect list at BA or FanGraphs. He’ll turn 30 in January.

Willians Astudillo, utility player, free agent, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.06

It’s likely that you’re already familiar with “La Tortuga” since he’s appeared in the majors for the past five years and has become a fan favorite. He hardly ever strikes out but also hardly ever walks or goes deep, which is why he’s had trouble sticking in the majors despite incredible bat-to-ball skills. He spent most of this year in Triple-A for the Marlins, hitting very well down there. However, he’s now 31 and hasn’t produced much over 588 career plate appearances in the majors.

Vinnie Pasquantino, first base, Royals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.03

This one is the hardest to call a hidden gem since Pasquantino is already on display. That being said, the 11th round draft pick from 2019 wasn’t a highly-touted prospect until a strong 2021 campaign got him onto the list of top farmhands in the Royals’ system from both BA and FanGraphs going into 2022. He got called up in late June and acclimated to big league pitching immediately. He had already walked more than he struck out at Triple-A in the first half of the year and then did the same in the show. He also went deep 18 times in Triple-A and 10 times in the majors. He only has 298 MLB plate appearances but the signs are pointing to him being the real deal. He just turned 25 last month.

Evan Mendoza, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.00

Another Cardinal, Mendoza was an 11th round draft pick in 2017. In 421 plate appearances this year, his strikeouts and walks came out even at 56. Unfortunately, like some others on this list, his contact wasn’t terribly productive, resulting in a slash line of .247/.348/.325. He did add a speed element to his game recently, though, swiping 15 bags last year and 17 this year. With the new rules coming into play that encourage more baserunning, perhaps his on-base skills will help him prove valuable. He’s never cracked the top 30 prospects in the system at either BA or FanGraphs, though FG did put him at #34 back in 2018. He’s eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

Tanner Morris, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.00

Morris began his year in Double-A, getting 186 plate appearances with matching 16.1% walk and strikeout rates. He hit five homers in that sample while slashing an excellent .312/.430/.468. He got bumped to Triple-A but couldn’t keep things rolling, perhaps due to a .233 BABIP, as he hit .173/.352/.173 in 126 plate appearances there. However, he again posted matching walk and strikeout rates of 19.8%, meaning he finished the year with rates of 17.6% over 312 plate appearances between the two levels. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 15 games, walking 15 times against nine Ks for a batting line of .279/.466/.372. A fifth round pick from 2019, he’s been on the back end of Toronto prospect lists over the past few years. He recently turned 25 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Bryce Windham, catcher, Cubs, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.00

A 32nd round pick of the 2019 draft, Windham got 304 plate appearances at Double-A this year, finishing with walk and strikeout totals of 44, a 14.5% rate for each. It was quite tepid production overall, leading to a batting line of just .202/.322/.289, though his .227 BABIP was well below his previous seasons. He’s never been listed as a top prospect in the system by either BA or FanGraphs. He recently turned 26 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Cardinals Non-Tender Alex Reyes

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The Cardinals announced they’re not tendering a contract to right-hander Alex Reyes or outfielder Ben DeLuzio. Both players head to free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had predicted a $2.85MM arbitration salary for Reyes, while DeLuzio is not eligible for arbitration.

Reyes was once touted as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, regularly featuring on various publication’s top-100 lists, including a fourth-place ranking on Baseball America’s pre-2017 list of the best prospects in baseball. The foundation of that was some elite stuff, headlined by a triple-digit fastball and a lethal curveball.

After blowing away minor league batters, he made his big league debut in 2016 and didn’t disappoint. The then-21-year-old tossed 46 innings of 1.57 ERA ball, giving up just one home run and striking out batters 27.5% of the time. He looked every bit a major league pitcher, and looked certain to be a atop Cardinal rotations for many years to come.

Tommy John surgery prior would wipe out his 2017 campaign, but he looked like he was back to his best on minor league rehab stints in 2018, striking out 44 batters across 23 innings and four starts. Yet disaster would strike after Reyes was activated, as he went down just four innings into his first start back, and eventually undergoing season-ending surgery on a torn tendon in his lat.

He’d return in 2019, but walked six batters in three innings and was immediately optioned to the minor leagues. That began yet another injury-plagued year and Reyes would only add 37 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball in the minors, as he again spent most of the season on the injured list.

The Cardinals brought him back in 2020, but now opted to utilize him out of the bullpen. While the walks were still a concern (16.3%), Reyes posted the best season since his 2016 effort, tossing 19 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, striking out batters 31.2% of the time. He followed that up with a lights out start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 1.52 ERA as St Louis’ closer and earning a trip to the All Star game. The second half was a different story though, and Reyes was dropped from the closer role and wound up with a dismal 5.52 second half ERA.

Injury problems returned again in 2022, and Reyes underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in May wiping out his season and leading the Cardinals to move on from him today. As it went, that rookie season accounted for 1.3 of his career 1.7 fWAR, an unfortunate return for a player who was once seen as a foundation piece in St Louis.

With that being said, his raw stuff still appears to be there, and despite all the injury problems his velocity has remained steadily in the upper-90s. Depending on his health, Reyes could make a very attractive reclamation project for any number of teams. He’s only 28, and teams would certainly love the opportunity to take a chance on an arm like his.

DeLuzio is the other Cardinal to be non-tendered. The center fielder appeared in 22 games in 2022, mostly as a defensive replacement as he made just 25 plate appearances, batting .150/.292/.200. Though many of the players being non-tendered today are arbitration-eligible, it’s not uncommon to see non-arbitration players informed they won’t receive a contract, as the Cardinals have done here to free up a 40-man spot.

Cardinals Sign Óscar Mercado, Four Others To Minor League Deals

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The Cardinals announced that they have signed five players to minor league deals: outfielder Óscar Mercado, infielders Taylor Motter and Juniel Querecuto, left-hander Kenny Hernandez and right-hander Logan Sawyer.

Mercado, 28 next month, is the most notable of the bunch. This signing returns him to the organization where he began his professional career, as the Cardinals drafted him in the second round back in 2013. He was traded to Cleveland in 2018 and then seemed to have an incredible breakout season in 2019. He got into 115 games that year, hitting 15 home runs and producing a batting line of .269/.318/.443. Because that was the “juiced ball” season, that production was actually just barely below league average according to his 98 wRC+. However, he also stole 15 bases and provided quality center field defense, allowing him to produce 2.2 fWAR on the year.

Since he was only 24 at the time, it seemed fair to think that even better things would be ahead for Mercado and he could be a foundational piece in Cleveland. Unfortunately, hit bat has wilted in the subsequent seasons. Since the end of 2019, Mercado has hit just .200/.258/.330 for a wRC+ of 62. After burning his option years, the Guardians designated him for assignment in 2022. He was claimed by the Phillies but then designated again after just a single game. The Guardians then claimed him and brought him back, but designated him a second time shortly thereafter.

After finally clearing waivers, Mercado ended up getting into 49 Triple-A games and fared much better, hitting .281/.363/.449. That amounted to a wRC+ of 117, indicating he was 17% above league average. He also stole nine bases in that short amount of time, indicating that the baserunning part of his game is still present, though he was also caught four times.

As Mercado showed in 2019, even with offense around league average, he can be a valuable player due to contributions from his glove and his wheels. If the Cardinals can coax that out of him, they can control him cheaply for years to come since Mercado has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll have to earn his way onto the roster first, of course, but the Cards’ outfield looks much less settled than it did a year ago. Harrison Bader was traded to the Yankees, Tyler O’Neill was injured for much of 2022 and Dylan Carlson’s bat took a step back relative to the year before. That means the door’s open for Mercado to enter the club’s plans on the grass, next to O’Neill, Carlson and Lars Nootbaar.

As for the rest of the signings, Motter is the only one with more than four games of MLB experience. The journeyman infielder was in the big leagues from 2016 to 2018 and then the past two seasons, with a trip to the KBO in between. In terms of his time in MLB, he’s gotten into 161 games split between the Rays, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Red Sox and Reds. He hasn’t hit much in that stretch but has enough versatility to have played every defensive position except for catcher and center field.

Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP

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Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.

Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.

Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.

Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.

Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.

Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow. While tomorrow will surely see a frenzy of deals and non-tenders, some agreements have already started to trickle out today.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

  • The Cardinals announced that they have a one-year deal in place with right-hander Chris Stratton. The club didn’t disclose the terms but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that it’s for $2.8MM. Stratton spent the past few years with the Pirates but came over to St. Louis at the deadline as part of the Jose Quintana deal. He had much better results after the jersey switch, as his ERA was 5.09 before but 2.78 after.

Earlier Deals

  • The Giants and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year deal worth about $1.2MM, per @drew_smitty. (The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, more specifically, pegs the exact number as $1.15MM.) The southpaw has appeared in each of the past eight seasons, largely providing effective work but also frequently hitting the injured list. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in May and got selected in August. He made 17 appearances down the stretch and posted a miniscule 1.04 ERA, impressive enough to convince the Giants to keep him around.
  • The Reds and right-hander Buck Farmer have agreed on a salary of $1.75MM, per Heyman. Having signed a minor league deal in the offseason, Farmer made the Opening Day roster but was DFA’d in May and re-signed. He got back onto the roster in July and finished strong. At the end of the year, he had 47 innings with a 3.83 ERA.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat

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The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.

“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”

Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.

As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.

Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.

Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.

“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.

The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.

Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.

As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.

With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.

Cardinals Select Connor Thomas

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The Cardinals announced that they have selected left-hander Connor Thomas to their 40-man roster. That protects him from being selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

A fifth-round selection out of Georgia Tech in 2019, Thomas spent the entire season with Triple-A Memphis. He started 25 of his 28 outings, tossing 135 innings of 5.47 ERA ball. He only punched out 17.9% of opponents, but he induced grounders on over half the batted balls he allowed and has excellent control. The Cardinals have valued that kind of strike-throwing and grounder ability on their pitching staff, thanks in large part to the strong infield defense behind them.

The 24-year-old can serve as rotation or long relief depth for the Cards. He’s the only prospect St. Louis protected from the Rule 5 draft, bringing their 40-man roster count to 39.

Mets To Hire Jeff Albert

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The Mets are set to name former Cardinals hitting coach Jeff Albert as their new director of hitting, SNY’s Andy Martino reports. He’ll presumably work in close tandem with hitting coach Eric Chavez and assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes. The team hasn’t made a formal announcement and given an exact description of the newly created position, but the team’s recent hire of Eric Jagers to serve as director of pitching likely sheds some light on Albert’s role. Jagers is expected to oversee the Mets’ minor league pitchers while also working closely with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.

The 41-year-old Albert joins the Mets on the heels of a four-year stretch as the Cardinals’ hitting coach. He left the St. Louis organization after the season of his own volition. Cards president of baseball ops John Mozeliak said at his season-ending press conference that he’d been planning to offer Albert a contract, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the plan had been to offer Albert a multi-year extension. Albert instead chose to pursue new opportunities, and the Cardinals subsequently promoted assistant hitting coach Turner Ward to Albert’s vacated position of hitting coach.

While Albert drew his share of criticism from Cardinals fans during some offensive struggles, the Cardinals’ composite offensive output in 2022 was quite strong. The team ranked ninth in the Majors in home runs (197), fifth in runs scored (772), tenth in batting average (.252), fourth in on-base percentage (.325) and seventh in slugging percentage (.420).

Obviously, not all of that can be simply attributed to Albert’s influence alone. But Albert, who has also spent time as the Astros’ hitting coach and minor league hitting coordinator, remains a highly respected coach and hitting instructor — and the new appointment to a prominent role within the Mets organization does nothing to change that perception.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

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