Looking For A Match In A Yu Darvish Trade
With next Monday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline looming, there’s a chance right-hander Yu Darvish‘s start on Wednesday will go down as his last in a Rangers uniform. If that 3 2/3-inning, 10-earned run disaster against Miami does represent the impending free agent’s swan song in Texas, it’ll be a shame for both parties. Darvish has generally been masterful since signing a six-year, $56MM contract in 2012 to emigrate from Japan. The 30-year-old has pitched to a 3.42 ERA and totaled upward of 18 wins above replacement across nearly 800 innings, making his deal well worth the investment for Texas, even when including the $51.7MM posting fee.
Darvish’s pact is now on the verge of expiring, while the Rangers are the owners of a 49-52 record after their 22-10 drubbing at the Marlins’ hands. That uninspiring mark has helped make the Rangers irrelevant in the American League West, which the 67-34 Astros ran away with long ago, but they’re still a manageable 4.5 games out in a parity-laden wild-card race.
With his team tenuously clutching to postseason hopes, Texas general manager Jon Daniels isn’t a lock to sell by Monday. Even if he does, Darvish might not go anywhere. Multiple reports this week have indicated that it would take a godfather offer for Daniels to part with Darvish, whom the Rangers would like to re-sign. And if the team keeps the four-time All-Star through season’s end but isn’t able to prevent him from testing free agency, it would surely make him a qualifying offer in order to receive compensation – a pick after the second round of next year’s draft – for his departure. That wouldn’t be much immediate consolation for the Rangers, but it’s among several factors that could influence them to retain Darvish past the deadline.
Although the Rangers may be content to ride it out with Darvish, pitcher-needy contenders have inquired about the Arlington ace in recent weeks and figure to continue doing so leading up to Monday. As such, there will be opportunities for clubs to pry Darvish away from the Rangers. The Cubs, Dodgers, Astros and Yankees come to the fore as potential landing spots, having already shown interest in Darvish.
In Chicago, Darvish would join Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and the just-acquired Jose Quintana to comprise one of the Majors’ most proven rotations. That quintet would more than likely do enough to help the reigning World Series champions fend off the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates in the National League Central. The Cubs aren’t exactly a flawless fit, though, given that they’re on Darvish’s limited no-trade list and also seem more inclined to chase a controllable starter (such as the Athletics’ Sonny Gray) than give up a prospect bounty for a rental.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pointed out last week, the Cubs are only a year removed from paying a heavy price for a free agent-to-be, closer Aroldis Chapman, whom they acquired from the Yankees in a deal that included standout infield prospect Gleyber Torres. Picking up Chapman helped the Cubs win their first championship in 108 years, but that doesn’t mean they should continue to deplete their farm system to acquire stopgaps. Further, should the Cubs reach the playoffs with their current rotation, they’d be in more-than-adequate shape, thereby lessening any need for Darvish. While all of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks and Quintana have failed to replicate their 2016 numbers, that doesn’t make them weak links. The only significant disappointment has been John Lackey, who’s not going to factor into the Cubs’ rotation plans in the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Astros, who possess the two best records in baseball, aren’t hard up for starting help. Nevertheless, the Dodgers’ interest in Darvish was reportedly “serious” even before ace Clayton Kershaw suffered a back injury last Sunday that will keep him out until late August or early September. At an astounding 71-31, the Dodgers can cruise to the NL’s top seed even with Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list, and they still boast four decent to excellent healthy starters in Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
It’s true that there are durability concerns scattered throughout the Dodgers’ staff, yet Darvish still remains much more of a luxury than a need. Therefore, even with a World Series in their sights, it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers meeting the Rangers’ asking price for Darvish. Los Angeles would probably have to part with one of its most extolled prospects, whether it’s outfielder Alex Verdugo or a young righty in Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez, which doesn’t seem like something president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi would do in this instance.
The same applies to Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, who refused for months to budge in a standoff with the White Sox over Quintana. Unlike Darvish, Quintana is under team control at eminently affordable rates through 2020. Nevertheless, Luhnow wouldn’t deal a package including outfielder Kyle Tucker and righty Francis Martes for the southpaw over the winter. Keeping his team’s prospect pool together has worked out nicely for Luhnow, who has seen Houston establish itself as the premier unit in the AL this year.
The Astros have gotten ace-caliber performances along the way from Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers (the former has missed notable time with neck issues, though), while Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers have provided quality complementary work. The club also just welcomed back bona fide mid-rotation starter Collin McHugh from an elbow issue that kept him out for nearly the entire first four months of the season. All of that is to say there’s enough starting talent on hand to confidently rely on in a playoff series. Consequently, the Astros don’t seem like serious suitors for a couple months of Darvish, and Luhnow has indicated that he’s comfortable with his bevy of current options.
As for the Yankees, with Masahiro Tanaka in the midst of a mediocre to poor year and Michael Pineda having undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery this month, they do have obvious rotation issues. The problem for the Rangers, if you want to call it that, is New York’s eyes have been on Gray far more than Darvish. The only current Yankees starters who are surefire bets to be in their rotation next season are Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery, as Tanaka could opt out of his deal (which looks improbable, granted) and CC Sabathia is set to become a free agent. Even though Darvish is arguably superior to Gray, then, the latter would perhaps be the more sensible acquisition for a Yankees team that needs to better their starting staff for both this year and the coming seasons.
Beyond those four squads, a match for Darvish is even more difficult to find. Most clubs either occupying wild-card spots or at least hanging around the league’s playoff races – the Royals, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Angels, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates – don’t look like proper fits for various reasons (mainly weak farm systems and/or low playoff odds).
The Royals have been red hot and are in their last hurrah of contention with the core that helped deliver a championship in 2015, but their farm is lacking enough to impede a Darvish pursuit. Kansas City, which isn’t on Darvish’s no-trade list and has a flaw or two in its rotation, would otherwise be a logical destination.
The Rockies, who have a four-game lead on the NL’s second wild-card position, possess a middle-of-the-pack rotation that would certainly benefit from Darvish’s addition. However, even if Colorado were to make a serious run at Darvish, there’s a large roadblock in that it’s among the teams on his no-trade list. Whether he’d waive that right just to spend the stretch run of his contract year at Coors Field is questionable to say the least.
As first-place teams, the Red Sox, Nationals and Indians look like strong bets to earn playoff berths. They’re hardly clear-cut bedfellows for Darvish, though. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski is never shy to make a daring move, but the club’s rotation is in fine shape as it is with Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez in the equation.
Speculatively, the Nationals may have been been a big factor in the Darvish sweepstakes had Stephen Strasburg‘s nerve injury been serious. Strasburg’s OK, according to the club, which isn’t in on Darvish. It’s interesting to imagine Darvish teaming with Strasburg and the great Max Scherzer as the Nats’ top three starters come October, but there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to happen.
Cleveland, another place on Darvish’s no-trade list, has come up as a potential suitor for Gray. The Indians have been the beneficiaries of Mike Clevinger‘s breakout, but their rotation could still use a surer thing to complement Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Darvish would provide that, but again, it would mean waving goodbye to acclaimed farm talent for a Band-Aid. That’s something the Indians might not want to do 12 months after sending touted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield to the Yankees for Andrew Miller.
Darvish’s next scheduled start is Aug. 1, the day after the deadline, and there’s a legitimate possibility that outing will come in a Rangers uniform. Barring an intrepid move from one of the imperfect fits highlighted above, it seems Darvish and the Rangers will continue their union for at least another two months. Regardless of whether that proves to be the case, the impending free agent will spend the rest of the year making an argument for a mega-deal. With a 4.01 ERA that looks pedestrian in comparison to his marvelous career production, it appears he has work to do on that front. Darvish remains a flamethrowing strikeout maven, though, which means some playoff-bound team could talk itself into paying a ransom for him in the coming days.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Shopping Jeremy Jeffress, Open To Offers On Keone Kela
5:23pm: Texas is also willing to listen to offers on young righty Keone Kela, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
Kela, 24, opened the year on optional assignment after running afoul of teammates. That also cost him the opportunity to reach three full years of service, thus delaying his ultimate free agency, though Kela will still qualify for arbitration next year as a Super Two.
He has been quite good since returning to the majors, throwing 32 1/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball while maintaining 12.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Shoulder soreness drove him to the DL for a stretch recently, so health is also a factor in his potential value.
4:20pm: The Rangers are shopping right-handed reliever Jeremy Jeffress, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). It’s unclear at this point just where interest may lie, but it’s certainly plausible to imagine a number of organizations taking a look at the veteran hurler.
Jeffress, the former Brewers closer, was traded to Texas alongside Jonathan Lucroy at last year’s non-waiver deadline. But he has struggled in his new environs — particularly in 2017.
The 29-year-old righty has followed up last year’s 2.33 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 60.3 percent ground-ball rate with an unsightly 5.21 ERA through 38 frames. Jeffress’ strikeout rate remains nearly identical to his 2016 level, but his walk rate has spiked to 4.3 BB/9, his grounder rate is down to 54.9 percent, and his fastball velocity is down more than a mile per hour (though still at an average of 94.3 mph).
Jeffress was worked hard in April, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently noted, and then ultimately required a DL stay for a back injury in June. His health, then, appears to be at least partially in question, and interested teams will also need to weigh Jeffress’s DWI arrest last year.
There is, perhaps, both some near and long-term upside in the righty. If he can get back on his prior track, Jeffress might be of real use down the stretch. He’s earning only $2.1MM this year, so it won’t cost much in cash. And with two more years of arb control remaining, Jeffress has some potential future value as well.
Rockies Seeking Catching Upgrades, Bullpen Arms
The Rockies are looking to upgrade behind the dish and are interested in Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Sullivan’s colleague, Thomas Harding, reports that the Rox also have some interest in Braves backstop Kurt Suzuki and Tigers catcher Alex Avila.
All three of the options listed are set to hit free agency upon completion of the 2017 campaign, and none of the bunch is earning at a substantial rate. Lucroy’s $5.75MM salary is the heftiest of the bunch, while Avila is earning $2MM in 2017 and Suzuki is owed only the balance of a $1.5MM base salary (plus some modest incentives).
The 31-year-old entered the season as one of the consensus top free agents on the 2017-18 market, but he’s seen both his bat and his glove take steps backward in his first full season with Texas. After being acquired just prior to last year’s non-waiver deadline, Lucroy raked at an exceptional .276/.345/.539 pace with 11 homers in 168 plate appearances down the stretch. However, he’s batting just .240/.293/.339 through 294 plate appearances this season and has begun to cede some playing time to Robinson Chirinos.
Lucroy has caught 30 percent of those that have attempted to steal against him, but he’s also seen his once-vaunted framing numbers deteriorate to the point that Baseball Prospectus ranks him as one of the league’s worst pitch framers.
It’s the opposite story for the 30-year-old Avila, who has broken out in a substantial way in 2017. A well-above-average catcher with the Tigers in 2011-12, Avila’s career was mired in a downward spiral before a return to the Motor City sparked a renaissance. He’s hitting .280/.402/.488 with 11 homers through just 256 plate appearances and has slashed his strikeout rate from 37.3 percent in 2016 to a more passable (but still too high) 29.7 percent this year.
While many have questioned Avila’s ability to sustain this pace, there isn’t a player in baseball (min. 250 PAs) that has a higher hard-contact rate than Avila’s 50 percent. His 92 mph average exit velocity is also among the top 10 in the league, trailing only Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz. He’s sporting a 31 percent caught-stealing rate but, like Lucroy, has received below-average marks in framing this year (albeit to a lesser extent than Lucroy).
Suzuki, meanwhile, is hitting .255/.340/.468 through 163 plate appearances in his first season with Atlanta. While SunTrust Park has a homer-friendly reputation, six of Suzuki’s eight big flies have come on the road this season. He’s caught a much-improved 26 percent of potential base thieves with the Braves and has demonstrated some improved but still shaky framing skills, per B-Pro.
The reason for the Rockies’ interest in catching upgrades isn’t difficult to see. Tony Wolters has shouldered the bulk of the time behind the dish this season, but he’s posted a meager .255/.351/.306 batting line, with much of that OBP boost coming from batting in front of Rockies pitchers. On the whole, Rockies backstops have posted a dismal .234/.313/.310 batting line — an especially unsightly level of output when considering their hitter-friendly home park.
Harding further reports that the Rox have “extensively” scouted Tigers left-hander Justin Wilson, adding names like Brad Brach, Zach Britton and AJ Ramos as other names the Rox have at least kept an eye on.
It’s not hard to connect some dots and expect that the Rox could have interest in a combo deal that would net them both Avila and Wilson from Detroit, though the asking price on that affordable and excellent pairing would figure to be high. Similarly, I’d imagine there’ve at least been internal discussions about the possibility of pairing one of the Baltimore relievers with Orioles catcher Welington Castillo, though his bat has cooled considerably since suffering a groin injury earlier this summer. That last connection is merely my own speculation, but if the Orioles do indeed listen on their relievers, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see them gauge interest in Castillo as well.
Latest On Yu Darvish
There’s still some apparent tension in the Rangers’ stance regarding ace Yu Darvish. The veteran righty is now available for the taking, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, but only in the “right deal.”
The situation was framed somewhat differently just last night by MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, though perhaps it’s just another way of stating the same takeaway. As he has it, the Rangers are leaning against a trade unless the club falls apart over the final week or is “overwhelmed by an offer.”
It seems, then, that Texas is informing rivals not only that Darvish can be had, but also that he won’t be moved unless the Rangers receive an offer that meets their surely lofty standards. That sets the stage for an interesting, multi-party game of chicken between the Rangers and potential suitors. But it also perhaps reflects mostly a continuation of a typical deadline standoff, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests on Twitter.
The organization is surely justified in holding out for a big return on Darvish, rather than simply auctioning his services to the highest bidder. After all, the team would not only be waving the white flag on contending in the current season — despite a still-wide-open AL Wild Card race — but would be sacrificing the ability to recoup draft compensation by extending Darvish a qualifying offer. (Plus, perhaps there could be at least some impossible-to-quantify impact on any efforts to re-sign the star hurler.)
Indications Rangers Will Hold Yu Darvish
As things stand right now, the Rangers are leaning against dealing star righty Yu Darvish, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. That could still change with an “overwhelming” offer or a total collapse in the standings, he notes. There’s still no clarity in the American League Wild Card picture, and the Rangers remain as plausible a contender as any, so perhaps the smoke surrounding Darvish really has come from an extinguished flame. That storyline promises to be among the most notable of the coming week, not least of which because of interest from the suddenly Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers. Los Angeles seems to be taking something of a Darvish-or-bust stance with regard to starters, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests in a tweet.
Dodgers Interested In Yu Darvish
- The Dodgers were interested in Rangers ace Yu Darvish even before Clayton Kershaw‘s back injury, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The timetable for Kershaw’s return, once determined, will further impact their level of interest in Darvish and other arms on the market. Morosi hears that among Dodgers’ top prospects, the team is most attached to right-hander Walker Buehler, who has already ascended to Triple-A and could conceivably help the club in 2017. Texas, meanwhile, would likely target two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects (Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun), per Morosi, which is a steep but largely unsurprising ask with the Rangers seemingly on the fence about whether to move Darvish at all.
Rangers Outright Pete Kozma To Triple-A
- Rangers infielder Pete Kozma cleared waivers and has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake tweets. Kozma was designated for assignment on Thursday. The veteran has appeared in 39 games with the Rangers and Yankees this season, filling in at all four infield positions and hitting .111/.200/.178 in 51 plate appearances.
Dodgers Have “Strong Interest” In Yu Darvish
The Dodgers were among those who scouted Rangers ace Yu Darvish‘s latest start, an eight-frame, 12-strikeout showing against the Rays on Friday. It turns out the Dodgers are one of multiple teams with “strong interest” in Darvish, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Talks between Los Angeles and Texas are in their preliminary stages, adds Morosi.
With a major league-best 67-31 record, the Dodgers are already something of a dream team, and adding Darvish to the fold would further increase their relatively high odds of being the last club standing at season’s end. The 30-year-old Darvish would give the Dodgers at least two bona fide aces, joining the peerless Clayton Kershaw, and there’s a legitimate case they also have another No. 1 in the lights-out Alex Wood. Los Angeles has also gotten quality pitching this year from starters Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy, though both come with durability concerns. The depth-laden team has a couple more respectable starters in Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but they’ve been the weakest links in a rotation that tops the majors in ERA (3.33) and fWAR (12.1).
As an impending free agent, Darvish wouldn’t necessarily stick with the Dodgers past this season, yet this year could represent the franchise’s best chance at a championship in a while. So, between that and their top-notch farm system, the Dodgers could elect to make a bold strike and pay what will be a high price to acquire Darvish. Even though the Rangers are struggling, there’s no guarantee they’ll move Darvish, a franchise icon whom they’d like to re-sign. However, just in case, the Rangers have been scouting the Dodgers’ minor leaguers. The Rangers watched highly touted Triple-A outfielder Alex Verdugo on Friday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News notes (on Twitter). Verdugo is the 35th-best prospect in the game, per Baseball America, and the Dodgers aren’t eager to part with him or other acclaimed youngsters such as righties Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez.
Latest On Yu Darvish
There’s a belief among some rival evaluators that the Rangers will trade ace Yu Darvish by the July 31 deadline if they don’t believe they’ll be able to re-sign the impending free agent, reports Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With Texas unsure of whether it’ll be able to retain Darvish long term, there’s at least one starter-needy team waiting to make a move until it sees whether the Rangers shop him. Consequently, the possibility of a Darvish trade is affecting the market for starters and “muddying the waters” for the AL West rival Athletics in their quest to deal Sonny Gray, writes Olney.
Rangers Undecided On Deadline Approach
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters Saturday that he’s unsure whether the 46-50 club will buy over the next week-plus. If they do, though, Daniels indicated that the Rangers will seek controllable starting pitching, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (on Twitter). Everyone wants controllable starting pitching, so that’s not surprising, but it’s clear Texas needs it more than a lot of other teams do. After all, three members of the Rangers’ rotation – Yu Darvish, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross – are scheduled to become free agents after the season.