MLBTR Podcast: Lawrence Butler’s Extension, Gerrit Cole’s TJ, And Rays’ Ownership Pressured To Sell
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Athletics signing Lawrence Butler to an extension (1:55)
- The Yankees losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery (10:00)
- The Mets losing Francisco Alvarez to hamate surgery (19:20)
- The Rays’ stadium and ownership drama (24:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Will the Cubs win the NL Central and how would you rank the AL Central clubs? (34:25)
- Will the spring injuries lead to some deals and keep the hot stove burning into April? (41:35)
- Should fans of the Dodgers be worried by how many old/injury-prone players are on the roster? (47:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More! – listen here
- Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More! – listen here
- Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).
So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.
In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.
Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.
Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.
There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.
Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.
Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.
If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Cubs extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
-
No, wait to see how he develops and risk a breakout raising his asking price. 52% (2,634)
-
Yes, offer him an extension despite questions about his bat. 48% (2,445)
Total votes: 5,079
White Sox Sign Travis Jankowski To Minor League Deal
The White Sox announced this morning that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Travis Jankowski to a minor league contract. The Excel Sports client will head straight to big league camp. He’d been with the Cubs on a minor league pact for the early portion of spring training. While the Cubs didn’t make any formal announcement about Jankowski’s release or him opting out of that deal, he’s clearly parted ways with Chicago’s north-side squad as they travel to Tokyo for next week’s series against the Dodgers.
Jankowski, 33, had a solid year with the Rangers in 2023 as the fourth outfielder on their World Series-winning roster. He appeared in 107 games, tallied 287 turns at the plate and delivered a respectable .263/.357/.332 batting line (97 wRC+) to go along with quality baserunning and glovework. He wasn’t able to follow up on that in a return effort with Texas in 2024; Jankowski played in 104 games last year but hit just .200/.266/.242 in 207 plate appearances.
Dating back to his 2015 MLB debut in San Diego, Jankowski has appeared in parts of ten straight big league seasons, suiting up for the Padres, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Mariners and Rangers along the way. He’s a lifetime .236/.319/.305 hitter with good speed who can handle all three spots in the outfield.
Jankowski will give the White Sox some outfield depth at a time when at least two members of their expected Opening Day roster are now slated for the injured list. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi suffered a broken hand when he was hit by a pitch earlier in Cactus League play. That injury will keep him off the field through at least the end of camp and possibly into mid-April. He’ll then need a rehab assignment. Reserve outfielder Austin Slater, who inked a one-year deal in free agency, is dealing with an oblique strain suffered last week. The Sox estimated he’d be out of game action for two to three weeks, leaving a season-opening IL placement a real possibility.
Jankowski is a known commodity for new White Sox skipper Will Venable, who was on the Rangers’ coaching staff for each of the past two seasons. He’ll compete for at-bats in left field or off the bench. Luis Robert Jr. is slated to man center field, with offseason signee Mike Tauchman in right. The ChiSox also signed Michael A. Taylor as a glove-first option off the bench. Other outfielders on the 40-man roster include Dominic Fletcher and Oscar Colas. Joey Gallo, Corey Julks and Cal Mitchell are among the other non-roster outfielders in camp.
Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs added star power in the Kyle Tucker trade, but otherwise made modest additions despite several other big swings.
Major League Signings
- Matthew Boyd, SP: two years, $29MM. Includes $15MM mutual option for 2027 with a $2MM buyout
- Carson Kelly, C: two years, $11.5MM. Includes $7.5MM mutual option for 2027 with a $1.5MM buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: one year, $6MM. Includes a $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: one year, $5MM. Includes $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Caleb Thielbar, RP: one year, $2.75MM
- Jon Berti, 3B/2B: one year, $2MM
2025 spending: $33.25MM
Total spending: $56.25MM
Option Decisions
- Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/1B: exercised $27.5MM player option for 2025
- Club declined $10MM mutual option with LHP Drew Smyly
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RP Rob Zastryzny off waivers from Brewers. Zastryzny was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Yankees.
- Acquired RP Eli Morgan from Guardians for OF Alfonsin Rosario
- Acquired C Matt Thaiss from Angels for cash considerations
- Selected 3B/SS Gage Workman from Tigers in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired RF Kyle Tucker from Astros for IF Isaac Paredes, P Hayden Wesneski, and 3B Cam Smith
- Acquired cash from White Sox for C Matt Thaiss
- Acquired P Cody Poteet from Yankees for OF/1B Cody Bellinger and $5MM
- Acquired IF Vidal Brujan from Marlins for 1B Matt Mervis
- Acquired RP Matt Festa from Rangers for cash considerations. Festa was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Rangers.
- Acquired cash considerations from Mariners for IF Miles Mastrobuoni
- Acquired cash considerations from Yankees for P Michael Arias
- Acquired RP Ryan Pressly and $5.5MM from Astros for SP Juan Bello
- Acquired cash from Orioles for IF Luis Vazquez
- Acquired RP Ryan Brasier and cash considerations from Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash
- Acquired cash considerations from Mets for OF Alexander Canario
Notable Minor League Signings
- Trevor Richards, Reese McGuire, Brad Keller, Nicky Lopez, Chris Flexen, Travis Jankowski, Phil Bickford, Ben Heller, Yency Almonte
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Paredes, Wesneski, Smith, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom, Drew Smyly, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman
Much like the previous winter with Marcus Stroman, this Cubs offseason kicked off with a pivotal player option decision that would affect their financial flexibility. This time, Cody Bellinger elected to take the $27.5MM owed to him in 2025 in lieu of a $2.5MM buyout, which also preserves a $25MM option on 2026 with a $5MM buyout. Bellinger's decision was not surprising, as he's now positioned himself to decline the '26 option having collected a total of $32.5MM for '25.
The Athletic's Patrick Mooney suggested a couple of times early in the offseason that the Cubs were seeking a starting pitcher who "could be trusted in a playoff game." Nonetheless, it wasn't long before Mooney's colleague Sahadev Sharma wrote that "the top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out" for the club. Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes would go on to sign contracts ranging from $182-218MM (though some included deferred money), and the Cubs were seemingly never a factor on them due to what I assume are philosophical objections to five-plus year commitments to thirty-something-aged free agent starters.
Instead, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a pre-Winter Meetings strike for 34-year-old southpaw Matthew Boyd. Boyd was available on a two-year contract because of his age and injury history. After totaling 355 2/3 innings for the 2018-19 Tigers, Boyd has not reached 80 innings in a season since.
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Cubs Leave Keegan Thompson Off Tokyo Series Travel Roster
The Cubs are not carrying reliever Keegan Thompson among the 31 players on their Tokyo Series travel roster, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Thompson is out of options and needs to be on the MLB team or removed from the 40-man roster. While the Cubs don’t need to make any transactions until next Tuesday’s regular season opener, it’s likely they’ll designate Thompson for assignment at that point.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged that Thompson has seemingly been squeezed out of the bullpen. “It is hard to evaluate Spring Training, but ultimately, that was how we made the decision,” he told Lee. “I thought Keegan threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better. Realistically, we knew coming into camp that we’d have to make some hard decisions.”
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, the Cubs are operating with limited roster flexibility in their bullpen. Thompson is one of six relievers on the 40-man who can’t be sent to the minors either because of their service time or out-of-options status. Colin Rea would be a seventh such reliever if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job and settles into long relief.
Non-roster invitee Brad Keller has generated positive buzz in camp. He cracked the travel roster, and while that doesn’t inherently mean he’ll make the team, the Cubs appear to be leaning towards selecting his contract. Keller, who would otherwise be able to retest free agency at the end of Spring Training, also has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment once he’s on the 40-man.
The Cubs can’t accommodate all those out-of-options pitchers. They’re certainly not going to send down Porter Hodge. There’s a decent chance they’ll want to carry Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan as well. Chicago probably also needs to open two 40-man roster spots by next week. They’d need to put Keller on the 40-man if he makes the team. Top prospect Matt Shaw isn’t on the 40-man either. The Cubs haven’t officially declared that he’ll be called up, but it’s unlikely they’d have carried him on the travel roster if he weren’t going to play.
That combination of factors is likely to push Thompson off the roster. The former third-round pick hasn’t pitched much this spring. He allowed three runs on a trio of solo homers over 4 2/3 innings. Thompson worked to a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings last season. He fanned 28.3% of opponents but walked an alarming 14.2% of batters faced.
Thompson and the Cubs avoided arbitration on an $850K deal in November. If he is designated for assignment, Chicago would have five days to attempt to line up a trade or place him on waivers. With three years of arbitration control and a salary marginally above the league minimum, there’s a decent chance he’d draw interest from another team.
Matt Shaw Makes Cubs’ Tokyo Travel Roster
Cubs manager Craig Counsell informed reporters, including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that infielder Matt Shaw will be on the club’s travel roster for next week’s Tokyo Series. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be making his major league debut in Japan but it means the possibility remains on the table. The club won’t make its final roster decisions until closer to the games, which take place on March 18th and 19th.
Throughout the winter, it has seemed like a distinct possibility for the 23-year-old Shaw to nab the Cubs’ third base job, even though he’s not on the 40-man roster and has no major league experience. He was just drafted in the summer of 2023 but has hit .303/.384/.522 in his 693 minor league plate appearances thus far. He spent most of last year in Double-A but finished his season with 35 Triple-A contests, hitting .298/.395/.534 in those.
The Cubs opened up a path to playing time for him by trading Isaac Paredes to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker deal, leaving the club without an obvious solution at the hot corner. Shaw has played the three infield positions to the left of first base but more at third than second or short.
More recently, there’s been an argument for pumping the brakes a bit. Shaw was slowed at the start of camp by an oblique issue and has been a bit behind schedule. He is in the lineup for today’s Cactus League game, which will be just his sixth spring contest.
The Cubs could have opted to leave Shaw behind for more reps, as opposed to undergoing the travel and time zone adjustments necessary to participate in the Tokyo Series. That’s the plan for second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is working his way back from flexor tendon surgery. Rather than travel all the way to Tokyo for a couple of exhibition games and the two games against the Dodgers, he plans to stay in camp and get regular reps, with his focus on being ready for domestic Opening Day.
The Cubs could have taken a similar tack with Shaw but it appears they will chart a different course. Shaw seems to be a bit ahead of Hoerner in terms of game readiness. Hoerner has been doing some batting practice and other such activities but hasn’t officially taken part in a game yet.
Travelling with the club to Tokyo doesn’t guarantee that Shaw will be added to the 40-man or active roster, as the Cubs and Dodgers will be travelling with 31 players each. Only 26 of those will be on the active roster, but it allows each club to have a bit of insurance in case an injury pops up while overseas. The club has Jon Berti, Justin Turner, Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján on the roster, with some combination of those guys capable of covering second and third for a couple of games without Hoerner or Shaw.
Still, the Cubs wouldn’t drag Shaw to Tokyo if there wasn’t a real chance of him getting to play. If he is to be added, the club would need to make space on the 40-man. If Shaw is added and spends enough time in the majors to earn a full service year in 2025, the Cubs would be in position to potentially earn an extra draft pick. Shaw is a consensus top 100 prospect and would therefore be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive if he is able to earn that full service year. He would then net the Cubs an extra pick if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting before qualifying for arbitration.
Cubs, Orioles Exploring Rotation Additions
There are still several starting pitchers available in free agency and it’s possible that mounting injuries could help create new opportunities for them. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that the Cubs and Orioles are two clubs exploring rotation additions. The Cubs reportedly had some talks with Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Pirates and are currently keeping tabs on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
The Cubs don’t have a major health concern in their rotation at the moment. Javier Assad has been slowed by some oblique soreness and is trending towards starting the season on the injured list, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be out for an especially long time. The club’s projected top four of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are healthy. With Assad out, Colin Rea could perhaps take the fifth spot for a while. Or if he’s in a long relief role, guys like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian or Cody Poteet could step up, though all the guys in that group have options and could also be in the Triple-A rotation.
However, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are facing an unusual spring. They have been ramping up a bit earlier than usual in anticipation of going to Japan soon. As part of the Tokyo Series, they will play a couple of exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season games against the Dodgers on March 18th and 19th. The Cubs are seemingly aware that some hiccups could arise with the unique schedule and are keeping the phone lines open.
At this part of the calendar, the market isn’t especially kind to players. The aforementioned Heaney signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago, a one-year deal with a guarantee of just $5.25MM. About a week ago, Jose Quintana signed with the Brewers for a $4.25MM guarantee. Coming into the winter, MLBTR predicted Heaney and Quintana to get two-year deals worth $24MM and $20MM respectively. Many pitchers outearned expectations earlier in the offseason but the market has clearly fallen off more recently.
A few months ago, Gibson and Lynn seemed like possibilities for eight-figure guarantees on one-year deals. But the fact that they have lingered unsigned while the market has softened means they are likely going to have to adjust their expectations if they want to sign. Rosenthal reports that unsigned pitchers are being asked to sign advanced consent forms, which allow clubs to terminate a contract within 45 days for any reason except injury and only have to pay the player for the time he spent on the roster. That’s obviously not ideal from a player’s perspective and it would only be signed if such a player had very little leverage.
Lynn, 38 in May, has a lengthy track record but isn’t riding a high tide of momentum at the moment. He posted a 5.73 earned run average in 2023, the worst of his career. He still was able to a secure a one-year, $11MM deal from the Cardinals and bounced back somewhat with a 3.84 ERA in 2024, but there were also some flags. He twice went on the injured list due to inflammation in his right knee, the same knee that had required surgical repair in 2022. Those IL stints limited him to 117 1/3 innings last year. While the ERA bounced back, his strikeout rate and velocity dropped.
Gibson, 37, is one of the steadiest pitchers in the league but lacks upside. He has logged at least 147 1/3 innings in each of the past ten major league seasons. However, he only posted an ERA below 4.20 in three of those. His 4.24 ERA last year was his best of the past three seasons.
Perhaps neither are as exciting as the aforementioned optionable pitchers that the Cubs have on hand, but they certainly have more experience. Between Brown, Wicks, Kilian and Poteet, there’s no one with even 85 big league innings.
For the Orioles, Rosenthal doesn’t specifically connect them to Gibson or Lynn, but it’s understandable that they would be keeping tabs on the market generally. Grayson Rodriguez has some elbow inflammation and is still getting some testing done but will start the season on the IL regardless. That leaves the O’s with a projected rotation of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Manager Brandon Hyde has suggested the final spot is likely down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich.
Suárez is a journeyman who spent many years in Asia before returning to North American ball last year. He pitched in a swing role for the O’s in 2024 and logged a 3.70 ERA. Povich went into 2024 as a notable prospect but had a 5.20 ERA in his first 16 big league starts. Adding a veteran starter could allow the club to keep Suárez in a long relief role and bump Povich to the Triple-A rotation, while also adding depth to hedge against future injuries.
Signing at this part of the season does come with some perceived risk, however. As noted by Rosenthal, both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery signed late last winter and the initial results were poor with both. Snell signed with the Giants in mid-March, then had a couple of IL stints in the first half. He eventually finished strong but was sitting on a 9.51 ERA when he returned from his second IL stint in July. Montgomery didn’t officially sign with the Diamondback until late March and never got on track, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings.
The Cubs and Orioles are surely not the only clubs sniffing around the available starting pitchers. The Yankees will be without Luis Gil for months due to a lat strain and are facing the possibility of Gerrit Cole requiring Tommy John surgery. The Mariners are going to put George Kirby on the IL to start the year due to some shoulder inflammation. Other injuries will inevitably arise and lengthen that list.
For clubs looking to free agency, they will have to consider whether its worth the money to sign one of these vets and quickly ramp them up, as opposed to going with in-house options. Rosenthal notes that both Gibson and Lynn have been throwing in an attempt to be somewhat ready, though they would surely still need some game action somewhere to truly get in form. Other free agents of note include Patrick Corbin and Spencer Turnbull. Guys like Jordan Montgomery or Taijuan Walker may be available on the trade market.
Nicky Lopez Expected To Opt Out Of Minor League Deal With Cubs
The Cubs reassigned infielder Nicky Lopez to minor league camp earlier today in a move that effectively removes the 29-year-old from consideration for the club’s roster for the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers next week. As noted by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times, Lopez’s contract with the Cubs affords him an opt-out opportunity if he’s not added to the 40-man roster by the end of Spring Training, and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that he’s “expected” to look for opportunities elsewhere going forward, though Lee notes that it’s theoretically possible the Cubs’ infield situation could change before he can officially opt out when camp comes to a close at the end of the month.
Lopez, 30 later this month, was a fifth-round pick by the Royals back in 2016. He made it to the majors during the 2019 season and showed off an impressive glove all around the infield, but he struggled badly at the plate with a slash line of just .240/.276/.325 (56 wRC+). It was more of the same for Lopez in a regular role with the club during the shortened 2020 season, but he enjoyed something of a breakout campaign in 2021. Lopez hit .300/.365/.378, good for a 104 wRC+, but that essentially league average production combined with his elite defense at shortstop to make for a 5.5 fWAR season.
Unfortunately, that massive success appears to have been a clear outlier. He posted a .347 batting average on balls in play that year, despite never posting a figure higher than .288 in any other season of his career to this point. Lopez’s wOBA outstripped his xwOBA by nearly 50 points, putting his expected numbers more in line with his lackluster 2020 season than his actual results in 2021. Given all of that, it wasn’t exactly a surprise when Lopez came crashing back down to Earth with a 55 wRC+ the following year.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Lopez has bounced between the Royals, Braves, and White Sox in a bench role, having lost the starting job he held during his early years with Kansas City. He’s settled in as a decent glove-first utility option, offering quality defense all over the infield despite a below-average .238/.317/.299 (77 wRC+) slash line over the past two seasons. He has solid plate discipline, as evidenced by a 15.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate over the past two seasons, but that’s held back by his complete lack of power. Lopez has just seven home runs across 670 big league games to this point in his career, and his .061 ISO the past two seasons is the second lowest of any player with at least 700 plate appearances in that timeframe.
Given Lopez’s relative lack of offensive upside and options like Vidal Brujan and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman who are already on the club’s 40-man roster, it’s perhaps not a major surprise that the club is willing to risk Lopez departing the organization. With Justin Turner, Carson Kelly, and Jon Berti all already locked into the Cubs bench mix, the club already had just one spot left available for the aforementioned trio of utility infielders. Workman and Brujan figured to have a leg up on Lopez throughout the process due to their roster status, combined with the more flexible roster rules of the Tokyo series that figure to allow Chicago to bring both players to Japan and put off making a decision between the pair until the club’s first stateside game against the Diamondbacks on March 27.
The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook
The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.
There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)
Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.
Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.
Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.
Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ‘pen.
Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.
That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup. (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)
The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.
It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.
Cubs, Yency Almonte Agree To Minor League Contract
The Cubs are re-signing reliever Yency Almonte to a minor league deal, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Chicago outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of last season.
Almonte, 30, landed with the Cubs as a secondary piece of last winter’s Michael Busch trade. He stepped into Craig Counsell’s middle relief group and made 17 appearances. Almonte surrendered seven runs (six earned) across 15 2/3 innings. He fanned 20 opponents and issued eight walks. That all came before the second week of May. The righty sustained a shoulder strain and underwent season-ending surgery in July.
Rogers suggests that Almonte is healthy now. There’s little downside for the Cubs in giving him another look as a non-roster player. Almonte has 223 major league innings under his belt. He owns a 4.44 earned run average with a decent 22.5% strikeout percentage and a 9.9% walk rate. His fastball has sat in the 95-96 MPH range at its best. It was down a tick in the early going last year.
Almonte has over five years of major league service. If the Cubs call him up at any point, they couldn’t send him back to the minors without his consent. The Cubs have limited roster flexibility in their bullpen. They have six relievers who cannot be sent down by virtue of their out-of-options status or service time: Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Tyson Miller, Caleb Thielbar, Keegan Thompson and Julian Merryweather.
If Colin Rea doesn’t get the fifth starter job out of camp, he’d add a seventh reliever without options. Porter Hodge is locked into a late-game role, while Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan should be in the mix. Almonte joins Trevor Richards, Phil Bickford, Brandon Hughes and Ben Heller among minor league signees who have MLB experience.