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Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

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7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway.  A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services.  It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience.  Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026.  Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher.  This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander.  The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.”  This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted.  On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return.  For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved.  Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.”  Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

Report: Diamondbacks Explored Montgomery/Bellinger Trade With Cubs

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There has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger this offseason, as both players have outsized salaries and are somewhat imperfect roster fits on their respective clubs.  These same issues have seemingly led to a rather quiet trade market for either player to date, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Arizona “tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap” involving the two players.  It isn’t known if the proposed deal was a straight one-for-one trade or if other players were involved, though it could be a moot point since the Cubs apparently didn’t have much interest.

Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary.  This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.

Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season.  Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs.  Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.

D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere.  If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.

A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.”  Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score.  It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.

From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs.  Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base.  While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders.  Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.

The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation.  Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department.  Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.

Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason.  It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.

The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto.  Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.

While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year.  After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter.  That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.

Cubs Considering Walker Buehler, Further Rotation Help

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The Cubs’ two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd became official earlier today, locking in the veteran southpaw as the newest member of the Wrigleyville rotation.  Even with this signing now on the books, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that the Cubs remain open to adding more starting pitching, and Walker Buehler is still “on their radar.”

Boyd lines up as Chicago’s fourth starter, behind Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon.  Javier Assad is the favorite for the fifth starter role, with the likes of Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and Ben Brown also in the mix for starts, plus top prospect Cade Horton also on the verge of his MLB debut.  While this seems like plenty of depth already, the “you can never have enough pitching” mantra may apply, as Wicks, Brown, and Horton all missed a lot of time in 2024 due to injuries.

Acquiring yet another experienced starter via trade or free agency would allow the Cubs to make Assad its top depth arm, and it can be argued that Assad is overqualified for such a role given his solid 3.40 ERA over his 294 career Major League innings.  Since injuries are basically inevitable, however, it stands to reason that Assad would still get some degree of rotation work.  Beyond Assad, one of the other pitchers could potentially become a trade chip if the Cubs feel secure in the number of starters on hand.

The Cubs haven’t exactly been pinching pennies on the rotation during Jed Hoyer’s time as president of baseball operations, considering Taillon’s four-year, $68MM deal and Imanaga’s four-year, $53MM deal.  However, Chicago has trended away from shopping at the very top of the pitching market to instead pursue more mid-range or shorter-term contracts like Taillon, Imanaga, Boyd, or (in the past) Marcus Stroman or Drew Smyly.

Buehler would also likely fall into this category, as it is widely assumed that the righty will sign a one-year pact as something of a pillow contract in the wake of a disappointing 2024 season.  While that disappointment was certainly tempered by a couple of great postseason outings and a championship ring with the Dodgers, Buehler’s regular season saw him post a 5.38 ERA with a host of below-average secondary metrics over 75 1/3 innings.

Since Buehler didn’t pitch at all in 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, it seems possible that he could perform better in 2025 now that he has shaken off the rust.  The baseball world hasn’t forgotten how dynamic Buehler looked prior to that TJ procedure, and this kind of upside potential has led to interest from not just the Cubs, but also such publicly known suitors as the Braves, Yankees, Mets, and Athletics.

As Mooney and Sharma note, it shouldn’t be considered a lock that Buehler will receive just a one-year contract, given how several pitchers have already exceeded expectations in the first month of free agency.  As such, Mooney/Sharma feel the Cubs could prefer to avoid the free agent market and instead pivot to adding a starter (or a reliever, or lineup help) in a trade.  News on that front might not develop until Juan Soto signs, which would then perhaps clear the Cubs’ path in terms of finding a potential trade partner for one of Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki.

Dansby Swanson Not Expected To Miss Time After Surgery For Core Injury

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The Cubs announced that shortstop Dansby Swanson underwent surgery in early October to address an injury to his core. While it is a little surprising that this news is only surfacing two months after the fact, the procedure appears to have been relatively minor, and Swanson is expected to be fully ready for the start of Spring Training in mid-February.

Aside from a knee sprain that sidelined Swanson for a minimal stint on the 10-day injured list back in May, he otherwise had a seemingly healthy season, playing in 149 of Chicago’s 162 games.  Swanson hit .242/.312/.390 with 16 homers over 593 plate appearances, translating to a 99 wRC+ and a diminished .148 Isolated Power number, a step backward from the .176 ISO he posted over his previous six seasons.

A core injury might have been a cause here, though Swanson didn’t seem any worse for wear, and actually hit better as the 2024 campaign went on — Swanson had a .632 OPS in 337 PA in the first half, but a .795 OPS in 256 PA after the All-Star break.  Swanson was one of several Cubs players who had uneven seasons at the plate, and this inconsistency manifested itself in Chicago’s middling 83-79 record.

Since Swanson will be ready to go for all of spring camp, this surgery might just be a footnote in the Cubs’ offseason.  Nico Hoerner’s flexor tendon surgery from October certainly seems like the larger concern, as there still hasn’t been any public word on whether or not Hoerner’s recovery timeline might stretch into Spring Training or the regular season.  This lack of certainty hasn’t stopped Hoerner from being mentioned in trade rumors, but since Hoerner is still on the Cubs’ roster for now, it isn’t great news for Chicago that both starting middle infielders are recovering from surgeries.

Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

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The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Cubs To Hire Jose Javier As First Base Coach

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The Cubs are going to be adding Jose Javier to their coaching staff, per a report from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. He will take over as first base coach, replacing Mike Napoli, who was let go at the end of the 2024 season.

Javier, 32, has spent most of his adult life in the Yankees’ system. As a player, he was in their minor leagues from 2010 to 2015 but never reached higher than the Single-A level. When his playing days ended, he moved into coaching, sticking with the Yankees and working in their minor league system.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell has been overhauling his coaching staff for next year. Early in October, the club parted ways with Napoli, assistant hitting coach Jim Adduci and bullpen coach Darren Holmes, then also parted with third base coach Willie Harris a few days later. All but Holmes were with the Cubs prior to Counsell being hired going into the 2024 season. Assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos was later poached by the Marlins to be their pitching coach.

Casey Jacobson was promoted to replace Moskos. Quintin Berry is reportedly taking over at third for the Cubs and now Javier will take up a spot across the diamond from him. The club hasn’t yet announced its full coaching staff and it hasn’t been publicly reported who will take the remaining vacancies.

Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

Yankees, Astros, Mariners Have Spoken To Cubs About Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger has stood as one of the most recognizable but difficult-to-move names on the offseason trade market. Among the teams to reach out recently are the Yankees, Astros and Mariners, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. However, Levine adds that the Cubs aren’t looking to merely shed Bellinger’s salary, nor do they want to cover much (if any) money in a deal. That’s likely to be an issue. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote this morning that other teams feel the Cubs will need to pay down a notable portion of Bellinger’s salary (or, presumably, take back another contract) if they intend to get much in the way of a return.

The Cubs have been looking to upgrade various spots on the roster but have a tough road to do so, in part due to no-trade clauses for Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Other positions, like first base (Michael Busch) and center field (Pete Crow-Armstrong) are already manned by promising young players. Third baseman Isaac Paredes was only just acquired at the deadline. Second baseman Nico Hoerner makes some sense as an option to free up some cash and a spot in the lineup for a more impactful bat, but he’s coming off flexor surgery.

That’s led the Cubs to at least gauge interest in Bellinger, who passed on the opportunity to opt out of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on his contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger had a fine year overall, hitting .266/.325/.426 with 18 homers and a tiny 15.6% strikeout rate (his second straight season with that exact strikeout rate). But while those numbers were solid, they pale in comparison to his 2023 showing. He also posted lesser defensive grades both in the outfield and at first bae in 2024.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Cody Bellinger Trade]

The Yankees have been laying some groundwork in the event that Juan Soto ultimately signs elsewhere, showing recent interest in top-tier free agents like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames. That said, there’d pretty clearly be room for both Bellinger and Soto on the same roster. Bellinger could slot in at first base in the Bronx, offering another left-handed bat with good contact skills — a contrast to some of the strikeout-prone righties elsewhere in the lineup. He’d also be good insurance in the outfield, given the injury histories of both Aaron Judge and top prospect Jasson Dominguez. Bellinger could also serve as a safety net in the event that Dominguez looks overmatched early on.

In Houston, the Astros have a clear need at first base after their three-year, $58.5MM deal with Jose Abreu went sideways almost immediately. After a poor first year in 2023, Abreu started the 2024 season so poorly that he consented to being optioned to the minors. That Triple-A stint didn’t help, and Abreu was released less than halfway through that three-year deal. The ’Stros subsequently gave most of the playing time at first base to Jon Singleton, who provided light offense and subpar defense the rest of the way.

For the Mariners, first base has emerged as a clear need. They have at least one intriguing in-house option in prospect Tyler Locklear, but the M’s have been linked heavily to veterans Carlos Santana and Justin Turner as they search for a veteran bat at first base (and likely another at the hot corner). Bellinger’s contact skills would help Seattle cut down on the team’s longstanding strikeout issues as well.

The bigger issue with regard to Bellinger isn’t so much his overall ability, but rather the magnitude of his contract. He’s owed $52.5MM over the next two season — a guarantee that’s paid out in heavily frontloaded fashion. He’s taking home a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and is owed a $5MM buyout on a $25MM player option for the 2026 season if he opts out of the contract’s final season next winter. For an acquiring team, Bellinger would add $26.25MM to the luxury tax ledger and would cost at least $32.5MM in terms of actual, present-day salary.

For the 2023 version of Bellinger — .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+), 26 home runs — teams would happily pay that price. Of course, if Bellinger had produced at that same level in 2024, he’d surely have taken the first opt-out opportunity in his contract at the beginning of this offseason. That he chose to forgo his opt-out clause is indicative of the fact that he and agent Scott Boras don’t believe there’s a sizable nine-figure contract waiting for him.

With regard to the Yankees, that luxury number could be problematic. Whether they sign Soto or pursue multiple free agents from the Fried/Burnes/Adames bucket after missing out on him, they’ll surely be a luxury tax payor in at least the third tier of penalty — if not the fourth. Since they’re looking at paying the tax in three straight seasons, that means they’ll either be staring down a 95% tax or 110% tax rate. Bellinger would cost them somewhere between $52-56MM in combined salary and taxes — plus that potential $5MM buyout on the 2026 option. Even for a deep-pocketed club like the Yankees, that’s a staggering price to pay, particularly coming off a good-not-great season for Bellinger.

The Astros, too, have some luxury concerns. RosterResource estimates that they’re just about $7MM shy of the first-tier threshold. They’ve looked into trading Ryan Pressly, but even if Houston were able to unload his full $14MM salary, Bellinger would still thrust them back into luxury territory. The 2024 season was the first in which owner Jim Crane authorized paying the tax. Adding Bellinger would very likely require doing so a second time. Speculatively speaking, a swap of Pressly and Bellinger could make sense for both parties involved, though Pressly can veto any potential deal as a player with 10-and-5 rights.

Luxury considerations don’t apply to the Mariners, but the actual bottom-line cash owed to Bellinger will be an obstacle. Seattle is looking to add two infielders — one at each corner — and ownership doesn’t seem to have an appetite for raising payroll too far beyond last year’s roughly $145MM level. The Mariners already project for a number in a similar range. If they could find a taker for one Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver, perhaps Bellinger would become more realistic. For now, it seems likely that ever-active president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is simply doing due diligence, perhaps hoping the Cubs will pay down some of the contract (if not take someone like Garver back as part of the return).

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
  • Why is Cody Bellinger’s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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