Cubs Rumors

Cubs Release Shawn Armstrong

By Darragh McDonald | September 26, 2024 at 12:05pm CDT

September 26: Armstrong has been released, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

September 20: The Cubs announced that they have activated right-hander Hayden Wesneski from the 15-day injured list, with fellow righty Shawn Armstrong designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic was among those to relay the moves on X.

Armstrong, 34, only joined the club three weeks ago. His results in a small sample of appearances since then have been fine and this move says more about the club than about him. He was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August when the Cubs were within five games of a playoff spot with a month left to go. Now they’re seven games back with just over a week remaining on the schedule.

The veteran righty is an impending free agent, so the Cubs have little use for him now as they play out the string on this season. They will put him on waivers in the coming days. He wouldn’t be postseason eligible with any claiming club, so there’s little incentive for one still in contention to put in a claim as they would have to take on the remainder of his $2.05MM salary. That would be less than $100K by the time the waiver process plays out but the club would also only receive about a week of Armstrong’s services in exchange.

Armstrong has already pitched for three teams this year, tossing 66 2/3 innings between the Rays, Cardinals and Cubs. His 4.86 earned run average isn’t terribly impressive but his other numbers paint a nicer picture. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are both fairly close to league average. His .362 batting average on balls in play seems to be hurting him, which is why his 3.58 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are significantly better than his ERA.

The Rays got good results out of Armstrong in the previous two seasons. He tossed 55 innings for them in 2022 with a 3.60 ERA. Last year, he gave the Rays 52 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.38. That number is surely a little misleading, as his .250 BABIP and 80.9% strand rate helped him out, but he did post a 26.1% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate.

This year, as mentioned, his ERA hasn’t been as strong. But the Cardinals evidently believed in the under-the-hood numbers, as they sent two-plus years of Dylan Carlson to the Rays in order to get Armstrong prior to the deadline. Just a few weeks into August, they had slid enough in the standings that they put Armstrong on waivers and saved a bit of money by having the Cubs claim him.

If Armstrong goes unclaimed in the coming days, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and keep what’s left of this year’s salary, so perhaps he will get his offseason started a few days ahead of schedule. That is unless some team in a tight playoff race will be interested in snagging him off the wire for the final week of the season.

Cubs Recall Kevin Alcantara For MLB Debut

By Nick Deeds | September 25, 2024 at 4:33pm CDT

The Cubs recalled top outfield prospect Kevin Alcantara to the active roster this afternoon and optioned infielder Miles Mastrobuoni to the minor leagues in a corresponding move. Alcantara’s first appearance in a game will be his big league debut.

The 22-year-old was first acquired by the Cubs at the trade deadline in 2021 as the headliner going back to Chicago in the deal that sent longtime first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees alongside right-hander Alexander Vizcaino. Since then, Vizcaino was released by the Cubs after just six games in the organization and is now out of affiliated ball. Fortunately, Alcantara has blossomed with the Cubs into an impressive player on both sides of the ball and even become a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport: the hulking, 6’6” outfielder ranks 60th at ESPN, 69th at MLB.com, and 77th at Baseball America as of each service’s most recent update.

The outfielder has never posted a wRC+ below 123 at any level of the minor leagues since donning a Cubs uniform for the first time, and though he’s not yet hit more than 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a full season of minor league action to this point in his career scouts have routinely lauded his plus power and speed potential. In 111 games at the Double- and Triple-A levels this year, Alcantara has slashed a solid .278/.353/.428 with 14 homers and 14 steals, including a hot streak in 35 games at Triple-A that’s seen him hit .292/.378/.469 in his first 148 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

One potential red flag in his profile is his tendency towards swing-and-miss: he’s struck out in 25.1% of his plate appearances at the Double-A level throughout his career, and so far in Triple-A that number has jumped up to 29.1%. It’s a flaw Alcantara will surely need to work on in order to reach his potential as an above-average regular in the majors, though his tools still leave plenty of room for optimism about his ceiling. He’s paired that exciting offensive potential with a strong glove that receives positive marks in center field, though scouts have long noted that his strong arm is more than enough for right field as well should he ultimately move to a corner.

With defensive standout Pete Crow-Armstrong having taken over center on a full-time basis in Chicago, it seems likely that right field would be Alcantara’s long-term defensive home in the majors in the event that he manages to work his way into a regular role with the club in the coming years. That may be easier said than done, however. After all, the club’s outfield mix is currently loaded with talent at the big league level with Crow-Armstrong set to patrol center at Wrigley for the next half decade and both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into the outfield corners through at least the 2026 season. Cody Bellinger has been the club’s regular right fielder since Crow-Armstrong’s arrival, pushing Suzuki to DH and potentially opening a path for Alcantara to work his way into the outfield mix should Bellinger opt out of his contract and return to free agency this winter.

Bellinger opting out of his deal in Chicago is hardly a guarantee, however, and Michael Busch has seemingly locked down his other position of first base for the foreseeable future. Fellow top outfield prospect Owen Caissie is also at the Triple-A level and could debut as soon as next season, further adding to the logjam of outfield options in Chicago. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cubs look to leverage their outfield depth in an offseason trade this winter to address other areas of the roster given the relative lack of opportunity available to Alcantara (and, for that matter, Caissie) at the big league level, particularly if Bellinger decides to opt in. Both Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, however, somewhat limiting the club’s options to explore trades in that regard.

Cubs Claim Enoli Paredes

By Darragh McDonald | September 23, 2024 at 4:40pm CDT

The Cubs have claimed right-hander Enoli Paredes off waivers from the Brewers, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. The righty had been designated for assignment by Milwaukee last week. The Cubs had a 40-man vacancy after righty Shawn Armstrong was designated for assignment last week and won’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard.

Paredes, 28, started the year with the Brewers on a minor league deal. He kicked things off with a complete lights-out performance in Triple-A. He tossed 20 2/3 innings over 18 appearances for Nashville with a 1.31 earned run average. He walked a fairly high 11% of batters faced but also struck out 41.5% of opponents and kept 56.8% of balls in play on the ground.

He was added to the big league roster in May and has had mixed results since. Forearm inflammation sent him to the injured list for about two months from July to September. Around that, he made 17 appearances for the Brewers with a 1.74 ERA. Though that number looks nice, his 16.7% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate were subpar, with his 44.8% ground ball rate around average. A tiny .224 batting average on balls in play and 84% strand rate were helping him out, which is why his 3.55 FIP and 4.95 SIERA aren’t nearly as nice as his SIERA.

The Brewers decided to quit while they were ahead and move on. Since Paredes exhausted his option years while with the Astros earlier in his career, they had to remove him from the 40-man entirely to get him off the active roster.

The Cubs are eliminated from the postseason picture this year and have presumably grabbed Paredes as a long-term play, looking at his early Triple-A results and window of control. He has just over two years of major league service time and still won’t be arbitration eligible by this winter. Though he is out of options, he can be retained for four more seasons if he manages to hang onto his roster spot.

Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | September 23, 2024 at 2:03pm CDT

The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name into that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers (who) have had success in the big leagues,” Manager Craig Counsell is quoted as saying in the piece. “Now with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”

The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in terms of quality and quantity. Each of that group has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings on the season thus far.

But as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made a couple of trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5MM club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled badly enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but has a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and then two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return the mound.

An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding some more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski all still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December of 2025.

The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.

The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer to not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November of 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5MM was Héctor Neris, who got $9MM.

Unless a change is coming in terms of the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in strong shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237MM competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238MM. Next year’s tally is only at $126MM right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will certainly add to that number and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay, but there will still be room for a notable contract.

Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again, Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guaranteed between $53MM and $71MM, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.

This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and others. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.

The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returned from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a full campaign since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.

Cody Bellinger Remains Undecided On Opt-Out

By Anthony Franco | September 20, 2024 at 10:09pm CDT

Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).

Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this evening that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.

Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.

The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.

There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.

Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.

The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto — the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.

That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50MM remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a paycut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5MM salary on an annual basis over four or five years.

If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.

From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.

How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out?

Will Cody Bellinger Opt Out This Offseason?

No. 60.70% (1,934 votes)

Yes. 39.30% (1,252 votes)

Total Votes: 3,186

NL Injury Notes: Glasnow, Hicks, Wicks, Kinley

By Anthony Franco | September 20, 2024 at 8:44pm CDT

The Dodgers moved Tyler Glasnow to the 60-day injured list on Wednesday, all but officially ruling him out for the rest of the season. The lanky right-hander spoke with reporters (including Jack Harris and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) and essentially confirmed he won’t be back in the playoffs. Glasnow called it “extremely frustrating” to be dealing with an elbow sprain, though he indicated he’s confident he will not require any kind of surgical repair.

Glasnow tossed 134 innings across 22 starts in his first season with the Dodgers. He established new career marks in both categories, though the season-ending elbow injury isn’t going to quiet concerns about his durability. Glasnow remained effective as ever before the injury, turning in a 3.49 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate.

A few more Senior Circuit injury notes as noncompetitive teams shut some players down:

Shoulder inflammation sent Jordan Hicks to the injured list, ending his season. The Giants recalled Austin Warren to take his spot in the bullpen. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Hicks will go for an MRI tomorrow. The first season of his four-year, $44MM free agent deal was a mixed bag. Hicks moved to the rotation for the first extended stretch of his career. The sinkerballer pitched well early, carrying a 2.70 ERA in 12 appearances through the end of May. He seemed to wear down quickly thereafter, allowing a 6.37 ERA over his next eight starts. The Giants moved him back to the bullpen at the end of July, but he continued to struggle in relief. Hicks allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with six strikeouts and walks apiece over 11 frames out of the ’pen.
The Cubs placed left-hander Jordan Wicks on the injured list with a right oblique strain. Trey Wingenter is up from Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move. Wicks had returned from a stint on the 60-day IL at the start of September. That was also on account of a right oblique strain, while the southpaw also missed time with an early-season forearm problem. It’s a frustrating second season for the former first-round pick. Wicks struggled when healthy enough to take the mound, allowing a 5.48 ERA across 46 innings in 11 appearances (10 starts).
Rockies closer Tyler Kinley landed on the shelf with elbow inflammation. Colorado recalled Jake Bird to take the open bullpen spot. It’s his second elbow-related IL stint in as many months. Kinley missed the second half of 2022 and most of last season after undergoing elbow surgery. He was healthy for most of this year but hasn’t found anything close to the success he enjoyed before the surgery two years ago. Kinley allowed a 6.19 ERA over 64 innings. He fanned a quarter of batters faced but walked more than 11% of opponents while struggling with the home run ball.

Kyle Hendricks Planning To Pitch In 2025

By Darragh McDonald | September 19, 2024 at 8:22pm CDT

The past few years have been challenging for right-hander Kyle Hendricks but he’s not thinking about stepping away from the game. He tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic that he “100 percent” plans to continue his career next year. “Absolutely,” Hendricks said. “I’ll take a step back (once the season ends to) reevaluate and refocus, but I definitely would love to keep pitching.”

Hendricks is slated to reach free agency for the first time this winter. He and the Cubs signed a four-year, $55.5MM extension in March of 2019, with that pact also containing a 2024 club/vesting option. That deal came amid the strongest stretch of the righty’s career. From 2014 to 2020, he tossed over a thousand innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate. On top of that, he also made a bunch of postseason starts for the Cubs, including five outings with a 1.42 ERA for the curse-breaking 2016 team.

Things haven’t been as smooth since then, however. In 2021, his strikeout rate dropped to 16.7% and his ERA climbed to 4.77. In 2022, he made 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA before a capsular tear in his right shoulder put him on the injured list. He didn’t require surgery but was out of action until late May 2023.

He was able to get back on track a bit from there. He made 24 starts in that 2023 season with a 3.74 ERA. His strikeouts were still down at 16.1%, but he lowered his walk rate to a tiny 4.7% clip and got grounders on 46.3% of balls in play.

That was strong enough to convince the Cubs to pick up their $16.5MM club option for the 2024 season, a move that looks regrettable in hindsight. Hendricks is slogging through the worst year of his career, which even got him moved to the bullpen for parts of May and June. He currently has a 6.25 ERA in 118 innings over 22 starts and five relief appearances.

The numbers under the hood perhaps provide some hope for a bounceback. His 16.1% strikeout rate is an exact match for last year. His 7.7% walk rate is up relative to 2023 but still right around league average. He is still elite at limiting damage, with Statcast putting him in the 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 86th percentile in terms of hard hit rate. His 63.5% strand rate is the worst of his career and well below league average. Metrics like his 5.17 FIP and 4.74 SIERA suggest he hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would suggest.

His market will naturally be softened by his track record over the past few years, and since he’s turning 35 years old this winter, but teams always need innings and there should be some interest. Beyond his performance, Hendricks has a strong reputation as a clubhouse leader and thoughtful player, earning the nickname “The Professor”.

Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, both in their mid-30s and coming off middling seasons, each secured eight-figure deals in the most recent offseason. Gibson got a $13MM guarantee and Lynn $11MM. Other vets like Martín Pérez, Wade Miley and James Paxton got guarantees a bit below that, each of them in the $7-9MM range.

What uniform Hendricks dons next year will be determined in the months to come, but it’s possible that he plays for a team other than the Cubs for the first time. Drafted by the Rangers, he was acquired as a prospect in the July 2012 trade that sent Ryan Dempster to Texas and has been with the Cubs since then.

Chicago’s 2025 rotation currently projects to include Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Wicks, with guys like Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian also in the mix. Prospect Cade Horton hasn’t pitched since late May due to a subscapularis strain but there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be healthy by next year.

It might be difficult to find a spot for Hendricks in there, despite his strong reputation in the organization. Perhaps that will lead him away from Wrigley, which would be a symbolic end of an era for the Cubs. Hendricks is the last player from the 2016 champions still with the club.

Julian Merryweather To Undergo Knee Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | September 19, 2024 at 5:03pm CDT

Cubs right-hander Julian Merryweather will be undergoing knee surgery tomorrow, says manager Craig Counsell. As relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X, it will be a right patellar tendon debridement. The skipper says Merryweather is expected to be ready by Spring Training. The pitcher himself says the rehab process will take three months, per Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM on X.

Merryweather seemed to develop into a key bullpen arm for the Cubs last year, as he tossed 72 innings with a 3.38 earned run average. His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side but he punched out 32.3% of batters faced. He moved into a leverage role for the club, securing two saves and 17 holds.

He wasn’t able to carry that over into 2024. He missed over three months due to a rib stress fracture and landed on the IL a second time last month due to right knee tendinitis, with the latter issue now requiring season-ending surgery. Around those ailments, he tossed 15 innings with a 6.60 ERA. There was probably some bad luck in there, as his .375 batting average on balls in play and 63.3% strand rate this year were both on the unfortunate side, but his strikeout rate also plummeted to 18.9%.

The righty has always been a tantalizing arm thanks to his high 90s velocity, but health has often been an obstacle. The Blue Jays acquired him from Cleveland as the return for Josh Donaldson in 2018, though Merryweather was recovering from undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier that year. He made his big league debut in 2020 but has since gone on the injured list for right elbow tendinitis, a left oblique strain and a left abdominal strain. The 2023 season is the only one in which he’s been able to throw at least 27 innings.

Merryweather reached arbitration for the first time last winter. He and the Cubs agreed to a salary of $1.175MM for 2024. He’ll be due a raise for next year but it won’t be huge, on account of his limited workload this year. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2026, before he’s slated to reach free agency. He’ll turn 33 years old next month.

NL Central Notes: Hudson, Steele, Cruz

By Leo Morgenstern | September 15, 2024 at 7:11pm CDT

For most of the 2024 season, Bryan Hudson was one of the most effective relievers in the major leagues. Out of 58 relievers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year, his 1.73 ERA ranks fifth. However, since September 3, Hudson has been pitching not for the Milwaukee Brewers but for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds.

According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers decided to option Hudson to Triple-A due to concerns about his velocity and durability. The left-hander suffered a minor oblique strain at the of July and came back in mid-August. While his surface-level numbers remained impressive upon his return (2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 IP), his velocity was noticeably lower on all three of his pitches. What’s more, his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate rose, and his 4.38 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.98 SIERA pre-injury.

Thus, with the Brewers sitting comfortably atop the NL Central standings, it made sense to send Hudson to the minors, where he could rest up and work on his stuff away from the pressure of the show. He has made just two outings so far for the Sounds, tossing a couple of scoreless innings with four strikeouts, two hits, and no walks allowed. His fastball velocity is still down compared to where it was earlier in the season, but it’s been a little better than it was in his last few outings before his demotion. Perhaps more importantly, his fastball velocity was higher in his second Triple-A outing this month than it was in his first.

It’s unclear if the Brewers are planning to recall Hudson anytime soon, but manager Pat Murphy suggested the 27-year-old will be back in Milwaukee eventually. As Hogg reports, Murphy is “pleased” with what Hudson has accomplished in Nashville, and there’s nothing more he needs to prove. The skipper didn’t provide a timeline for Hudson to get back in the Brewers’ bullpen, but he implied that a return was on the horizon, saying “I think you’ll see him again.”

The Nashville Sounds’ season ends next Sunday. If the Brewers are hoping to have Hudson for the postseason, it would make sense to call him up once the Triple-A campaign comes to a close. That would give him a week to reacclimate to big league competition before October.

Latest On Cody Bellinger

By Nick Deeds | September 15, 2024 at 11:24am CDT

A year ago, Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger was putting the finishing touches on a fantastic rebound campaign that saw him place in the top ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second career Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with Chicago and slashed an excellent .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what seemed sure to be a significant payday in free agency over the winter.

That, of course, did not come to pass. Bellinger was one of several free agents who found himself struggling to find a deal that met expectations, and ultimately returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after each season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t quite lived up to his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 trips to the plate while his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 figure that’s more in line with his career norms and his power production has dipped to more closely match his batted ball metrics.

As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not to exercise his upcoming opt-out opportunity this November, it’s fair to wonder if there’s any reason for him to consider opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his previous platform year, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “fully expected” to remain with the Cubs rather than exercising his opt-out a returning to free agency this winter. Despite those expectations, however, the possibility that Bellinger could instead look to hit the open market for the third consecutive offseason cannot be overlooked.

After all, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, while worse than last year, are still well above league average. More importantly, however, his 2024 production is generally backed up by his peripheral numbers and appears likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks in part to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout rate for the second consecutive season this year, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for 16th-best in the majors this year, just ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.

That improved combination of contact and discipline at the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in power production Bellinger has experienced this year, and is still more than enough to make Bellinger one of the top bats at his position in the majors. Among qualified center fielders this year, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this year ranks seventh in the majors while his .332 on-base percentage is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind only AL MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s ability to play a quality center field while also delivering above average offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that without him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit just .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 trips to the plate with the Mets this year, as the top player available.

Given the fact that Bellinger also has an opt out following the 2025 season, it’s easy to imagine that he might simply be better off sticking with the Cubs, collecting a $27.5MM salary next year, and then returning to free agency prior to the 2026 season, when he would be leaving just $20MM on the table rather than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this year. While it’s true that a dominant offensive season from Bellinger could boost his profile, he’d also be marketing his age-30 campaign as opposed to his age-29 season and entering free agency on the wrong side of 30 can significantly depress a player’s earning potential. What’s more, he’d face much more competition in center field next year: The 2025-26 free agent class currently projects to include other notable center field options like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the possibility that Bader signs a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself next winter.

Bellinger’s status among free agency’s top center fielders would be diminished further by the fact that, he would almost assuredly not be used in center field next year if he were to remain with Chicago. The club’s recently-graduated top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over center field on a regular basis in recent weeks, pairing elite defense at the position with nine homers and 27 stolen bases in just 356 trips to the plate this year. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but it’s worth noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) since the start of July.

With Crow-Armstrong all but certain to be the club’s everyday center fielder in 2025, that would likely leave Bellinger forced to move to right field on a daily basis should he play for the Cubs next year, putting more pressure on his bat to produce at a level commensurate with the expectations of the position. Impressive as Bellinger’s offense has been for a center fielder, he ranks just 20th among 49 qualified outfielders this year in terms of wRC+, leaving him as a somewhat middling option offensively for an outfield corner. Without a significant step forward offensively next year, it’s easy to imagine Bellinger leaving money on the table by not exercising his opt-out this year and returning to free agency while he’s still under 30 years old and playing center field on a semi-regular basis.

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