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Cardinals Claim Jared Young From Cubs

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The Cardinals announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Jared Young from the Cubs. They also announced their previously-reported deal for right-hander Riley O’Brien, who has had his contract selected. The 40-man roster is now full.

Young, 28, was drafted by the Cubs in the 15th round in 2017 out of Old Dominion University – his third college in three years.  He was never a major prospect, garnering a 40 grade from Baseball America prior to the 2019 season.  After the 2020 minor league season was canceled due to the pandemic, Young earned a promotion to Triple-A during the ’21 campaign.

Despite uninspiring hitting at Triple-A Iowa, Young received a brief Major League look with the Cubs in September 2022.  Young cleared waivers and was outrighted back to Triple-A in November of that year.  In June of this year, Young regained his spot on the Cubs’ 40-man roster and picked up 47 big league plate appearances in the bigs.  The Cubs again outrighted Young on Thursday, leading to today’s claim by the Cardinals.

Young has primarily played first base in the minors, but he’s also put in time at third base, second base, and the outfield corners.  As was the case with the Cubs, Young may have difficulty earning even a bench spot in St. Louis.  He did conquer Triple-A pitching this year with a 147 wRC+, and he’ll have to hit his way into more MLB playing time.

Craig Counsell To Depart Brewers For Club With Existing Manager

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Manager Craig Counsell is departing the Brewers but won’t be joining the Mets, as many had expected. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that he is joining an unidentified team that already has a manager in place.

It had been reported in recent weeks that Counsell had been drawing widespread interest, as his contract with the Brewers just expired after the 2023 season. He interviewed with the Guardians and Mets and garnered interest from the Astros, though a return to the Brewers seemed to still be possible. However, today has brought a series of surprising twists, with the Guardians hiring Stephen Vogt, the Mets bringing aboard Carlos Mendoza and Counsell apparently departing for some mystery club that doesn’t even have a current vacancy.

Shortly after this post was published, the mystery team was revealed to be the Cubs. Find more details in this post.

Central Notes: Kiermaier, Twins, Anderson, Morel, Kantrovitz, Bloom

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The Twins are interested in Kevin Kiermaier to address their need in center field, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Since Byron Buxton’s health and ability to play center field is still in doubt, the Twins are again looking for some help up the middle, as Michael A. Taylor (acquired last winter in a trade with the Royals) is now a free agent.  Kiermaier would come at a higher price tag in free agency, yet the veteran offers equally stellar glovework, albeit with a pretty significant injury history in his own right.

With the Blue Jays managing Kiermaier’s playing time in order to keep him healthy, Kiermaier managed to almost entirely avoid the injured list in 2023, while hitting .265/.322/.419 over 408 plate appearances and winning another Gold Glove for his work in center field.  If Buxton is able to play in the field at all, the Twins could conceivably platoon Buxton and Kiermaier in center field to keep both players fresh.  Signing Kiermaier would add yet another name to a somewhat crowded list of Minnesota position players, yet Nightengale feels the Twins will aim to trade from this surplus to land pitching help

More from both the AL and NL Central…

  • Also from Nightengale, the White Sox “desperately tried” to find a trade partner for Tim Anderson, but ended up just declining Anderson’s $14MM club option.  A trade would’ve allowed the Sox to at least recoup something in return for their veteran shortstop rather than letting him go for nothing, yet any number of factors might’ve prevented a deal.  We don’t know what Chicago was looking for in return, of course, or whether Anderson’s salary was a sticking point for either a new team to absorb, or if a suitor wanted the White Sox to eat some money to facilitate a deal.  Now a free agent, Anderson figures to draw plenty of attention as a bounce-back candidate, probably on a one-year pillow contract worth less than $14MM, considering Anderson’s poor 2023 season.
  • Christopher Morel is expected to draw a lot of trade attention this winter, as The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney write that rival teams scouted Morel thinking the Cubs would be more open to moving the utilityman in the offseason than at the trade deadline.  Morel is something of a “master of none” type of utility player, as he can play multiple positions but isn’t real defensive plus at any spot, except possibly second base.  But, this versatility and his above-average hitting numbers over 854 career PA makes him an interesting trade chip for the Cubs as they address other needs.
  • Also from Sharma and Mooney, the Mets had interest in hiring Cubs VP of scouting Dan Kantrovitz “for a high-level job in their front office,” but Kantrovitz will be staying in Chicago.  Kantrovitz has been with the Cubs for the last four seasons, after previously working as an assistant GM with the Athletics.  In other Cubs front office buzz, Sharma/Mooney figure that the team will explore an external hire for at least one of their two assistant GM openings, as a way of bringing a fresh voice into the mix.
  • “There are rumblings” that former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom might land with the Cardinals in an advisor role, Peter Gammons reports (on X).  Not much had been heard about Bloom’s potential next step after he was fired by the Sox in September, before Gammons’ item and today’s news that Bloom turned down overtures from the Marlins about their front office vacancy.  An advisory job would be an interesting way of Bloom to keep a foothold in baseball without committing to another full-time post, as Gammons notes that Bloom is prioritizing time with his family.

Cubs Exercise Club Options On Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have exercised their $16.5MM club option on the services of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Hendricks, the club’s longest-tenured player, is now set to return in 2024 for his 11th season with the major league team and his 13th season as a member of the Cubs organization as a whole. Rogers also reports that the club has picked up their $6MM club option on veteran catcher Yan Gomes, who will return for his third season in Chicago.

Chicago’s decision to retain Hendricks is hardly a surprise, given comments earlier this fall from both president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and club chairman Tom Ricketts that indicated Hendricks would return to the Cubs in 2024. The decision was likely made even simpler by veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman’s decision to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. By keeping Hendricks in the fold, the Cubs have a proven veteran starter to pair with Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon in the club’s rotation next season with youngsters like Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and perhaps even top pitching prospect Cade Horton all also in the mix for starts next season.

Of course, the most important factor in Hendricks’s option being picked up was the veteran righty’s strong bounceback campaign in 2023. The soft-tossing righty was among the most effective starters in all of baseball for the first seven seasons of his career with a sterling 3.12 ERA and 3.53 FIP across 175 games. Among the 68 pitchers who threw at least 700 total innings between 2014 and 2020, Hendricks’s ERA ranks 7th. Unfortunately, Hendricks’s performance took a turn for the worse over the next two seasons; he posted a 4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP across 48 starts those two seasons before being shut down last summer due to a shoulder capsule injury.

Rehabbing from that shoulder injury left Hendricks unavailable to open the 2023 campaign, but he looked rejuvenated upon his return in late May. In 24 starts for the Cubs this season, Hendricks was able to provide a steady, veteran presence in the middle of the club’s rotation with a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. Though Hendricks struck out just 16.1% of batters faced- a low mark even by his soft-tossing standards- he made up for it by walking a microscopic 4.7% of batters faced while generating groundballs at a 46.3% clip. Altogether, Hendricks’s performance and the rising prices of pitching on the free agent market in recent years seems to have made picking up the 2024 option on his services a fairly easy decision for the Cubs.

As for Gomes, the 36-year-old veteran rebounded in a big way from a down year offensively in 2022. After slashing just .235/.260/.365 in 293 trips to the plate while serving as the club’s primary backup to Willson Contreras behind the plate last year, Gomes stepped into the role of Chicago’s primary catcher after Contreras departed for the Cardinals in free agency. Gomes took to the role quite well, slashing a respectable .267/.315/.408 in 419 trips to the plate, good for a 95 wRC+ that ranked 26th among the 69 catchers who had at least 100 trips to the plate in the majors this year.

In addition to his solid bat for the position, Gomes has generally been well-regarded as a catcher defensively throughout his career. Though his framing marks slipped somewhat in 2023 from where they had been in previous years, Gomes ranked in the 81st percentile for Blocks Above Average behind the plate and the 66th percentile for CS Above Average in 2023. Given his solid performance both at and behind the plate in 2023, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs would retain Gomes for a third season behind the plate, though it’s possible he’ll end up in more of a timeshare with youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024 after Amaya showed flashes of being a potential regular behind the plate in 53 games in the majors this year.

Marcus Stroman Opts Out Of Deal With Cubs

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Marcus Stroman has enacted the opt-out clause in his contract and will now become a free agent, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (X link).  Stroman’s three-year, $71MM deal with the Cubs from the 2021-22 offseason allowed Stroman to opt out of the final year of that contract, and the right-hander will be leaving $21MM on the table in search of a larger and more lucrative deal this winter.

Stroman faced one of the more interesting option decisions of any player on the market, as his 2023 campaign was a tale of two seasons.  In the first half, Stroman had a 2.96 ERA over 112 2/3 innings and received an All-Star nod for his efforts.  In the second half, Stroman had an 8.63 ERA over only 24 innings, as he missed about six weeks on the injured list.  Initially sidelined with hip inflammation, Stroman was revealed to have a right rib cartilage fracture, which delayed his IL stint beyond what seemed like a fairly minimal 15-day absence.  While the righty was able to make it back for the Cubs’ late-season playoff push, Stroman was limited to bullpen duty and shortened starts, as Chicago ended up missing the postseason.

Altogether, Stroman delivered a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, with his usual outstanding (57.1%) grounder rate and a below-average (20.7%) strikeout rate.  Good control has also been part of Stroman’s repertoire, but his 9% walk rate in 2023 was both the highest of his career and only in the 40th percentile of all pitchers.  It is fair to say that Stroman’s injuries contributed to his struggles over the season’s last three months, though it also marks his second straight year with a notable injury absence.  Between shoulder inflammation and a brief stint on the COVID-related IL, Stroman threw only 138 2/3 innings in 2022, barely above his 2023 total.

While not the ideal platform into free agency for a pitcher entering his age-33, Stroman and his reps at Roc Nation Sports should certainly be able to find a multi-year pact on the open market, worth well above the $21MM Stroman would’ve received from the Cubs.  Stroman’s groundball-heavy approach may not quite fit the preferred mold for some front offices, yet it’s hard to argue with results, as Stroman has posted generally good results over his nine MLB seasons.  At his best, Stroman has looked like a front-of-the-rotation star, with two All-Star nods on his resume and a seventh-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting when he was a member of the Blue Jays in 2017.

Stroman will head into free agency without having to worry about a qualifying offer, as Stroman previously received (and accepted) a QO from the Mets following the 2020 season.  The lack of draft compensation attached to his services could give Stroman a leg up on other starters on the market, and it also means that the Cubs won’t receive anything in return should Stroman sign with another team.

The Cubs reportedly had some degree of extension talks with Stroman this past spring, through the right-hander’s comments in June indicated that those negotiations were minimal at best.  “Up until now, there’s been nothing from their side.  No offers, no talks, really, at all,” Stroman said.  Though Stroman made it clear that he wanted to stay in Chicago, the lack of contract discussions apparently lasted through the summer, as it seemed for much of the season that the Cubs were leaning towards trading Stroman at the deadline.  However, Stroman’s second-half struggles and the Cubs’ own improvement and surge into the playoff race changed those plans, even if the irony was that Stroman wasn’t able to contribute much to the pennant race.

As recently as two weeks ago, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney wrote that Stroman and Kyle Hendricks were “expected” to return to Wrigleyville in 2024, with Stroman passing on his opt-out and the Cubs exercising Hendricks’ $16MM club option.  There hasn’t yet been word on Hendricks’ option, though the two sides are reportedly discussing a contract extension that might overwrite the option entirely.  Speculatively, this situation might’ve impacted Stroman’s choice, as if he felt the Cubs were prioritizing Hendricks in their long-term plans, Stroman might’ve decided to seek out a longer-term deal with another team now, rather than spend one final year in Chicago.  Stroman might’ve faced more trade buzz if the Cubs weren’t in contention, or another injury-marred season might’ve more fully hampered his free agent case in the 2024-25 offseason.

A reunion between Stroman and the Cubs probably shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, though Chicago has other pitching options.  Assuming Hendricks stays in some capacity, the rotation lines up as Justin Steele, Hendricks, Jameson Taillon as the top three starters, and Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the last two spots.  Drew Smyly could also be involved if he doesn’t opt out of the final year (and $11MM) of his contract.  It stands to reason that the Cubs will look to augment this group with at least one veteran arm, whether Stroman or another free agent or trade chip.

Cody Bellinger Declines Mutual Option With Cubs

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Cody Bellinger has declined his end of a mutual option with the Cubs, the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). He receives a $5MM buyout and officially becomes a free agent. Chicago also announced they’ve declined their end of a $5MM mutual option on reliever Brad Boxberger. He collects an $800K buyout.

Both moves were straightforward. Bellinger signed a one-year guarantee last offseason after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. His goal was to turn in a rebound campaign that allowed him to get back to the open market this winter. Bellinger followed through with a resurgent year, blasting 26 homers with a .307/.356/.525 showing. Aside from a month-long absence due to a left knee contusion, it would’ve been hard to draw up a much better season.

That makes taking the option buyout a formality. Bellinger is the clear #2 position player on the free agent market. Going into his age-28 campaign, he could find a deal approaching or exceeding a decade in length. The Cubs will make him a $20.325MM qualifying offer before Monday’s deadline. Bellinger will decline, thereby entitling Chicago to draft compensation if he signs with another team.

The Cubs have top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as a potential successor in center field. They nevertheless figure to make an effort at retaining the 2019 NL MVP, although teams like the Giants, Yankees and Mariners could join them in the bidding.

Chicago signed Boxberger to a $2.8MM free agent deal last offseason. The veteran righty was limited to 22 contests by a pair of injuries, including a forearm strain that ended his season in September. Over 20 innings, he pitched to a 4.95 ERA with a modest 20.2% strikeout rate and an elevated 13.1% walk percentage. The 35-year-old might be limited to minor league offers this winter.

Cubs Outright Three Players

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The Cubs have assigned right-handers Jeremiah Estrada and Nick Burdi as well as infielder Jared Young outright to the minor leagues, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Burdi has the requisite service time to reject the assignment and elect free agency, while Estrada and Young will have the opportunity to enter minor league free agency later this month unless added back to the 40-man roster. The club’s 40-man roster now stands at 37.

Estrada, who celebrated his 25th birthday yesterday, was a sixth-round pick by Chicago in the 2017 draft. Estrada dealt with elbow troubles early in his career before being hospitalized with COVID-19 in August 2021, leaving him with just 40 professional innings prior to the 2022 campaign. Estrada’s rise in 2022 was impressive, however, as he posted a 1.30 ERA while striking out 40.4% of batters faced in 48 1/3 innings of work across three levels of the minors that year. The reliever’s exceptional minor league numbers earned him a brief cup of coffee with the big league club last season, during which he posted a solid 3.18 ERA and a 4.17 FIP over 5 2/3 innings of work.

Estrada’s strong 2022 earned him a longer audition as a member of the Chicago bullpen this season, though his stint in the majors did not go well with a 6.75 ERA and a 9.07 FIP as he walked a whopping 12 batters in 10 2/3 innings of work across 12 appearances. His minor league numbers also suffered, with a 5.97 ERA in 28 2/3 Triple-A innings of work, though he still struck out 31.5% of batters faced at the level this season. In the event Estrada hits free agency, he figures to be an attractive candidate for a minor league deal to clubs interested in adding relief depth thanks to his youth and big strikeout numbers in the minor leagues.

Burdi, 30, was a second-round pick by the Twins in the 2014 draft and eventually made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2018. He managed just 16 appearances from 2018-20 due to injuries, posting a 9.49 ERA along the way. Ugly as his run prevention numbers were, he struck out 38.3% of batters faced over that time. Burdi did not pitch in 2021 or 2022 due to injuries, but joined the Cubs through the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last offseason. Unfortunately, Burdi managed just three innings of work before once again hitting the injured list, this time due to appendicitis. Overall, Burdi sports a career 9.39 ERA in 15 1/3 major league innings.

Young, 28, was a 15th-round pick by the Cubs in the 2017 draft and first made his major league debut in a six-game cup of coffee last year, slashing .263/.364/.368 in his 22 trips to the plate in the majors. That slash line more or less reflected his numbers at Triple-A that year, where he posted a .230/.311/.420 slash line in 109 games. Young returned to the Cubs at the Triple-A level and took a step forward with the bat, crushing the ball to the tune of a .310/.417/.577 slash line with 21 home runs in just 90 games. Unfortunately, that success did not translate to the big league level, where he hit just .186/.255/.465 across sixteen games. Nonetheless, Young could be an attractive candidate for teams on a minor league deal this offseason due to his strong Triple-A numbers and ability to play capable defense at all four corners.

Coaching Notes: Mallee, Rays, Giants, Cora

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The Cubs are promoting John Mallee back to the big league staff, as reported by Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. It’s currently unclear what role the long-time coach will serve. He was the team’s hitting coach from 2015-17, but that job is currently held down by Dustin Kelly, who helped several players thrive in his first year with the big league squad. 

According to Sharma and Mooney, the Cubs will “incorporate Mallee’s experience and expertise” in a new role, rather than replace anyone currently on the coaching staff. He was the hitting coach at Triple-A Iowa in 2023, and he earned “rave reviews” for his work at the minor league level. Evidently, the Cubs have decided he can have a greater impact with the MLB club, even in a less defined role.

In other coaching news from around the league…

  • In addition to hiring a new first base coach, the Rays could look to hire a couple of additional coaches to replace Jonathan Erlichman, the former process and analytics coach, and Dan DeMent, the former assistant hitting coach (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Erlichman has taken on a new role with the team, while DeMent has parted ways with the organization after 13 years as a minor league coach and two with the big league club. The Rays have another assistant hitting coach, Brady North, and with Erlichman remaining in the organization, they don’t necessarily need to hire a direct replacement for either Erlichman or DeMent. As Topkin notes, the Rays could look to add a couple of coaches in new roles instead.
  • On Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Franciso Chronicle discussed the Giants’ director of pitching role, which has been vacant since the White Sox hired away Brian Bannister to be their senior pitching advisor. She suggests Bryan Price, a long-time pitching coach and former Reds manager, to fill the role. Price is currently employed as a senior advisor to the coaching staff in San Diego, but it’s not out of the question he could come over to San Francisco alongside Bob Melvin, Matt Williams, and Ryan Christenson. Price spent 14 years as a pitching coach for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Phillies. He announced his retirement as a pitching coach after the 2020 season, but a director of pitching job could represent an intriguing new opportunity for the veteran coach.
  • Joey Cora, the Mets’ third base coach in 2022 and ’23, has drawn interest for several coaching positions around the league, per Andy Martino of SNY. Cora, the elder brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has been coaching since 2004. His contract with the Mets expired at the end of October. In further Mets news, Martino notes that first base coach Wayne Kirby’s contract has also expired. Evidently, the team saw no reason to retain all of their coaches without a new manager in place.

Mets Interview Carlos Mendoza, Andy Green In Managerial Search

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The Mets have interviewed Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza for their managerial vacancy, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that Mendoza is actually in the midst of a second-round interview today after interviewing for the first time last week and receiving a callback. Sherman also reports that the club has interviewed Cubs bench coach Andy Green, though it’s unclear if that’s a first or second interview.

Mendoza, 43, spent 13 seasons as a minor league player before joining the Yankees’ minor league coaching staff in 2009. He joined the big league coaching staff as an infield coach in 2017 before being promoted to bench coach following the 2019 season. Green, on the other hand, participated in parts of four big league seasons during his playing career, including the 2009 season as a member of the Mets. Since retiring, Green served briefly as third base coach of the Diamondbacks before being hired to manage the Padres prior to the 2016 season. Green managed in San Diego for four seasons before joining the Cubs’ coaching staff as bench coach prior to the 2020 campaign.

The pair have drawn interest from other clubs for managerial vacancies, as well. After drawing occasional managerial interest in recent years, Mendoza was among the likeliest candidates to take over for Gabe Kapler as manager of the Giants prior to the club securing permission to interview Bob Melvin. In addition, both coaches have been interviewed by the Guardians. If hired in Cleveland, either coach would step into the shoes of longtime manager Terry Francona following his recent retirement.

Should Mendoza depart the Bronx for another club this offseason, Martino notes that the Yankees could look to promote third base coach Luis Rojas, himself a former Mets manager, to the position. Though Rojas’s contract with the Yankees is up this offseason, Martino makes clear the the club has interest in retaining him, either as bench coach or in his current role as third base coach. It’s not yet clear what direction the Cubs could go in if they wind up needing to replace Green. Chicago already lost a key member of the club’s staff this offseason when Craig Breslow departed the Cubs’ front office to take the vacant GM role in Boston.

That the Mets are moving on to a second interview with Mendoza suggests that the club’s interest in his services next year is strong, though Sherman still refers to Brewers manager Craig Counsell as the “favorite” for the Mets job. Of course, Counsell has plenty of options beyond New York that could complicate the club’s pursuit of his services; Counsell has received interest from the Astros, the Brewers hope to retain him in Milwaukee on a new contract, and he’s already interviewed with the Guardians. Curiously, while MLB Network’s Jon Morosi has indicated that Counsell and the Mets have discussed the club’s managerial vacancy, Martino makes clear that Counsell has not had a formal interview with Mets brass to this point.

With the Mets apparently advancing to a second round of interviews for other candidates before sitting down with Counsell for a first interview it’s possible, speculatively speaking, that the club hopes to move through the interview process with other candidates so that they can act quickly upon Counsell’s decision regarding where he will manage in 2024. If that’s the case, it’s unclear what other candidates could be in the mix beyond Mendoza and Green, as details regarding the managerial search in New York have been few and far between this offseason. While Rangers associate manager Will Venable reportedly declined to interview for the position last month, Mendoza, Green, and Counsell are the only publicly known candidates for the position at this point.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

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