Players To Receive Qualifying Offers
The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.
The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.
All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…
- The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
- The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.
Earlier Updates
- Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
- The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
- The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
- As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/15
Some minor signings and outrights from around the game…
- The Athletics announced yesterday that catcher Carson Blair has been outrighted to Triple-A Nashville. Blair, who turned 26 after the season ended, made his big league debut with Oakland in 2015 and collected four hits in 31 at-bats over the course of 11 contests. The former Red Sox farmhand has a brilliant track record at the Double-A level but reached Triple-A for the first time this year and struggled there in addition to in the Majors. Blair is eligible for minor league free agency.
- The Padres have outrighted first baseman Cody Decker off the club’s 40-man roster, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old went 0-for-11 in his Major League debut this past season but has a solid track record of hitting for power at the Triple-A level, as evidenced by his lifetime .257/.336/.501 batting line at the minor leagues’ top level.
- Baseball America’ Matt Eddy reported this week (via Twitter) that veteran catcher Brett Hayes has signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks, while utility man Steve Lombardozzi has latched on with the White Sox on a minors pact as well. The 31-year-old Hayes displayed good pop with the Indians in a limited sample this past season and is a lifetime .205/.250/.359 hitter in 464 big league plate appearances. Lombardozzi, 27, has spent most of his career with the Nationals and owns a .263/.294/.336 triple-slash in the Majors. Most of his time has come at second base, but he’s also played a fair bit of left field and has limited experience at third base in the Majors as well.
White Sox Decline Option On Alexei Ramirez
The White Sox have declined their $10MM club option on shortstop Alexei Ramirez, the team announced. Instead, Chicago will pay him a $1MM buyout.
Ramirez represented one of the most difficult option decisions in this year’s market. The 34-year-old veteran has been a solid contributor for years in Chicago, and the organization has needs all over its infield. Now, Chicago figures to be in the market for a shortstop to help bridge the gap to top prospect Tim Anderson.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club, Ramirez may not be worth the $9MM spread between his value and the option price, but he could earn something close to it as a free agent. He’s coming off of a disappointing, .249/.285/.357 season, with declining defensive metrics. But he had been a consistent two-to-four WAR performer for many seasons before (even while generally carrying slightly below-average batting lines).
Teams looking for additions at short can now consider Ramirez alongside the rest of a market that isn’t exactly bursting with sure things. Ian Desmond will no doubt draw the most interest, with Asdrubal Cabrera also a reasonably young option. Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins figure to be the most appealing options among the older players available.
Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes
Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:
- Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
- There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
- The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
- The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
- The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.
Hector Noesi Likely To Sign With Korean Team
Righty Hector Noesi appears likely to sign with the KIA Tigers in Korea, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The 28-year-old Noesi is an ACES client.
Noesi posted a 6.89 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 32 2/3 innings with the White Sox in 2015 before being outrighted, after which he had more success with Triple-A Charlotte. In 2014, though, he was a regular in the White Sox’ rotation, pitching 166 innings with a 4.77 ERA. In addition to the White Sox, Noesi has pitched with the Yankees, Mariners and Rangers in his five-year big-league career, posting a 5.30 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 395 1/3 innings. As a fly ball pitcher, he gives up more than his fair share of homers, thus far preventing him from being more than a passable fifth starter in the big leagues.
East Notes: Anthopoulos, Nats, Desmond, Montero, Cespedes, Gordon
Blue Jays ownership is to blame for the team’s surprising separation with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, argues Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star. New president Mark Shapiro “said he strongly disagreed with some of the deadline choices that sent prospects out,” Arthur reports, and indications are that he took the job in part because he is interested in increasing his involvement in personnel decisions. (The club made several swaps, most notable shipping out young pitching talent to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.) Rogers Communications, the club’s ownership group, initially offered Anthopoulos only a one-year contract with an option, says Arthur, and though the offer ultimately was bumped to a five-year term, that seemingly set the stage for the departure of Anthopoulos. Meanwhile, the new free agent executive took a conciliatory tack on his way out, saying, “I just didn’t feel like this was the right fit for me going forward.”
Here’s more from Toronto and some other eastern division clubs:
- Writing for the National Post, Andrew Stoeten takes rather a different perspective on the Blue Jays‘ front office changes. He suggests that it’s a valid criticism that Anthopoulos gave up too much young talent over the summer, even if the immediate results were good. More broadly, there’s no reason in particular to think Anthopoulos is uniquely irreplaceable, Stoeten argues.
- Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look at an interesting offseason for the Nationals. As he explains, the club could probably just add some bullpen pieces and a left-handed-hitting, center field-capable fourth outfielder and call it a day. That wouldn’t be perfect, but it should be workable enough, and it may be what the team had hoped and expected to be looking at heading into 2015. But a terribly disappointing campaign changes the equation somewhat. Svrluga says that the organization has pegged a $175MM overall annual operations budget, a number which includes player salaries but would also include additional spending in other areas (he cites various front office upgrades, though presumably it might also involve international spending or other speculative investments). With various big-money players are coming off of the books, Svrluga argues at least some of their salaries ought to be reallocated to new acquisitions. Upgrading over Wilson Ramos at catcher should be considered, he argues, and the team must decide whether to trade Yunel Escobar (possibly for bullpen help) and how much trust to put in Michael Taylor.
- Outgoing Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond figures to draw strong interest from the Mets, people around the game are telling Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (as part of a broader notes column). Heyman says he’s expecting a “robust” market for Desmond after a late-season return to form, and also notes the Mariners, Padres, White Sox, and Twins as plausible landing spots.
- It’s easy to forget about righty Rafael Montero given the success of the Mets‘ other arms, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the team hasn’t. New York expects Montero to be ready to go this spring after dealing with shoulder issues all year, and Sherman notes that he’ll at least represent a solid depth piece in the near-term if he can stay healthy. Of course, with Zack Wheeler also set to return next summer and Steven Matz now looking like he’ll command a rotation spot for years to come, Montero could ultimately factor as a trade chip.
- Sherman also takes a crack at assessing the in-season changes to the future free agent market of Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Red Sox offered him a five-year deal at about $75MM when he was with the club, says Sherman, and might have considered going to the Hunter Pence range (5/$90MM). Now, says Sherman, Cespedes’s future valuation has swung wildly. Before his mid-season swap to New York, he says, Cespedes was generally expected to receive a deal that might not have reached $100MM. The outfielder pushed his ceiling to the six-year, $150MM range after a blistering couple of months, per Sherman, but now some executives feel a tepid few weeks could drop him shy of nine figures. For what it’s worth, my own take is that Cespedes’s earning capacity has probably not moved quite so violently; while it’s obviously shifted, I’d have pegged him at a higher mid-season expectation and still believe he’ll easily clear the $100MM barrier this offseason.
- The Red Sox could be a surprise contender to add outfielder Alex Gordon via free agency, Sherman writes. While Boston could move forward with its internal options in the outfield, rival executives see a scenario where the team tries to utilize the resurgent Jackie Bradley Jr. as a trade piece to add a pitcher while simultaneously locking up Gordon. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe analyzes the concept, explaining that Fenway Park has seemed uniquely capable of undermining otherwise strong defenders’ abilities in left field. As Sherman suggests, Gordon could be added with the idea of deploying him in right, and Speier does add that Castillo looked good in limited action in left, so there’s some hypothetical plausibility but also some tough questions to be answered before pursuing that strategy.
List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers
Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.
- Dan Jennings, White Sox (2.171)
- George Kontos, Giants (2.171)
- Justin Grimm, Cubs (2.170)
- Arodys Vizcaino, Braves (2.168)
- Avisail Garcia, White Sox (2.167)
- Jurickson Profar, Rangers (2.167)
- Jedd Gyorko, Padres (2.164)
- Juan Lagares, Mets (2.160)
- Didi Gregorius, Yankees (2.159)
- Erasmo Ramirez, Rays (2.158)
- Chris Archer, Rays (2.156)
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies (2.155)
- Will Smith, Brewers (2.155)
- Jean Machi, Red Sox (2.154)
- Seth Maness, Cardinals (2.154)
- Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers (2.151)
- David Lough, Orioles (2.149)
- Chris Hatcher, Dodgers (2.146)
- Evan Scribner, Athletics (2.142)
- Nick Tepesch, Rangers (2.136)
- Zach Putnam, White Sox (2.135)
- Chris Withrow, Braves (2.132)
- Kole Calhoun, Angels (2.130)
- Jeff Manship, Indians (2.130)
- Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2.130)
Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.
It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.
That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.
White Sox Claim Jacob Turner From Cubs
The White Sox have claimed right-hander Jacob Turner off waivers from the Cubs, according to the club’s transactions page at MLB.com. Turner, 24, didn’t pitch in the Majors this season, spending most of the year on the 60-day disabled list due to a strained right flexor tendon and right shoulder inflammation.
Formerly one of the top prospects in the game — Baseball America ranked him within its Top 30 for three consecutive offseasons from 2010-12 — Turner’s career has been slowed dramatically by injuries. The Tigers selected him ninth overall in the 2009 draft, and he was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from Miami to Detroit.
Turner spent parts of three seasons with the Marlins and was mostly healthy there (he did miss time in 2014 with shoulder issues), but he wasn’t able to deliver on his considerable upside. Miami made the tough call to designate him for assignment in August of 2014, as he was out of options and couldn’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers (which was never going to happen at that point). Miami placed Turner on revocable waivers, with the hope of working out a trade to a club with a high priority, and there was some surprise when the Rockies, who then had the No. 1 waiver priority, neglected to place a claim. The Cubs, who were second in line, promptly claimed him and worked out a trade, sending minor league right-handers Tyler Bremer and Jose Arias to Miami in return.
In hindsight, the series of transactions was largely inconsequential, as Turner was healthy enough to throw just 34 2/3 unsuccessful innings for the Cubs, though it made plenty of sense for the Cubs to roll the dice on a prospect with the type of upside Turner possessed.
The White Sox will now look to do the same, although because he’s out of options, they’ll have to either pass him through outright waivers — something the Cubs just failed at doing, hence the claim — or keep him on the 40-man roster all winter and Spring Training. Turner would have to break camp with the big league club next year or be exposed to outright waivers late in the spring.
Heyman’s Latest: Mattingly, Red Sox, Ozuna, Heyward, Giants, Storen
The Marlins have interviewed at least five candidates for their managerial opening, but they put their search on hold to wait to see what the future held for Don Mattingly, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also looks at the Dodgers‘ upcoming managerial search, noting that former Padres manager Bud Black, current Dodgers third base coach/former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke and current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach could factor into L.A.’s search for a replacement in addition to early favorite Gabe Kapler. Here are some more highlights from the column…
- The Braves will pursue bullpen upgrades this winter after their relief corps struggled tremendously in 2015. Presumably, the club could be in the mix for some short-term upgrades that could be flipped come the trade deadline, though I’ll point out that the Braves will probably be better off in 2016 with the returns of Shae Simmons, Chris Withrow and perhaps Daniel Winkler from Tommy John surgery.
- While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.
- The White Sox are on the lookout for third base help and will also pursue upgrades behind the plate. Chicago wound up designating Conor Gillaspie, its primary third baseman from 2013 through the first half of 2015, for assignment this summer and trading him to the Angels. Tyler Flowers had a poor second half, although as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his Offseason Outlook on the ChiSox, Flowers has worked hard to become an excellent pitch framer, so he does bring some value to the table in that increasingly important element of the game.
- Some feel that the Reds are going to blow things up and go for a full-on rebuild this winter, though Heyman writes that Brandon Phillips is said to have negative trade value. Considering the fact that Phillips had a decent rebound season at the plate and is still a sound defender whose contract no longer is too burdensome, I wonder if that’s a universal sentiment. While he’s not a bargain, Phillips seems to be at least reasonably priced.
- The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.
- The Indians still have interest in Marcell Ozuna, as they reportedly did prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. I mentioned in my Offseason Outlook for Cleveland that a pursuit of Ozuna would make some sense and speculated on a potential match sending Trevor Bauer to Miami. Heyman notes that the Marlins are looking for a frontline pitcher to pair with Jose Fernandez, but history shows us they’re not likely to spend on a top-tier free agent.
- The Astros, too, are looking for bullpen upgrades. Houston pursued top-end relief talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, with GM Jeff Luhnow candidly telling the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’d like to pursue a “flamethrower.”
- The Twins are expected to pursue a reunion with A.J. Pierzynski, as many have speculated on recently (myself included). Heyman notes that the Braves will probably try to bring Pierzynski back as well. Minnesota also wants Torii Hunter back, but in a reduced role.
- Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd‘s $8MM option.
- The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.
Heyman’s Latest: Greinke, Mattingly, QOs, Gordon, Anderson, Hunter
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke‘s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.
Onto some highlights from his second column…
- There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier‘s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis‘ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
- The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
- Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
- The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
- The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
- Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
- The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.