White Sox, Red Sox Swap Reese McGuire For Jake Diekman
6:40pm: The White Sox announced the trade, adding that they’re also sending a player to be named later or cash to the Red Sox as part of the swap.
6:11pm: The White Sox are trading catcher Reese McGuire to the Red Sox, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that veteran left-handed reliever Jake Diekman is headed to Chicago in the deal.
McGuire, 27, will give Boston an immediate option to take some of the playing time vacated by this evening’s trade of Christian Vazquez to the Astros. While McGuire has never managed to string together much consistency in the big leagues, he’s a former top prospect with an additional three seasons of club control remaining beyond the current year. He’s hitting just .225/.261/.285 on the season but has outstanding defensive marks on the year: +7 Defensive Runs Saved, a 31% caught-stealing rate and positive pitch-framing grades from both FanGraphs and Statcast.
McGuire is out of minor league options, so the acquisition suggests that the Red Sox plan on carrying him on the big league roster for the foreseeable future. With Vazquez now in Houston and Kevin Plawecki set to become a free agent following the season, McGuire will at least give the Sox a defensive-minded option to be a backup next year. Prospects Ronaldo Hernandez and Connor Wong give the Sox some in-house options to step up in 2023 (and perhaps down the stretch this year), but the front office could also look at ways to upgrade behind the dish in the offseason (or, potentially, with further trades in the next 22 hours).
The 35-year-old Diekman, meanwhile, will give Chicago a veteran left-handed option the front office was rumored to be seeking. He’s having a somewhat typical season by his standards, missing plenty of bats but also walking far too many hitters. Command has always been an issue for Diekman, who currently has a 4.23 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate but the worst walk rate of any qualified reliever in the Majors (17.5%).
Despite the deluge of free passes, Diekman will add a hard-throwing, swing-and-miss southpaw to the late-inning mix for manager Tony La Russa. He’s playing on a two-year, $8MM contract that spans the 2022-23 seasons and carries a $4MM club option for the 2024 campaign. As such, the ChiSox can count Diekman among their late-inning options at least for one more season and perhaps for two, depending on how he fares over the next 14 months.
The White Sox have been without lefty Aaron Bummer for most of the summer thanks to a strained lat, and touted young lefty Garrett Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season. That led general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to target some additional lefty help in the bullpen. Tanner Banks, a 30-year-old rookie, had previously been La Russa’s only other southpaw option out of the ‘pen. Triple-A lefties Anderson Severino and Bennett Sousa are both on the 40-man roster, but each has been hit quite hard this season in limited MLB work.
Angels Planning To Keep Shohei Ohtani, No Longer Listening To Offers
The Angels have listened to offers on reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani for the past several days, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that they’re no longer doing so. The Yankees, Padres and White Sox were among the teams to submit trade offers for Ohtani, per the report, but Heyman writes that owner Arte Moreno ultimately proved “unwilling” to part with Ohtani.
The fact that Ohtani is staying put is hardly shocking. Even when reports emerged of that the Angels were listening to trade offers, it still seemed unlikely that a deal would come together. Given Ohtani’s unprecedented contributions to the team in recent years, it was always expected that a massive package would have to be put on the table in order for the Angels to pull the trigger on a deal. With the Angels mired in another miserable season that’s seen them fall well out of contention, it made sense to listen to offers on the superstar given that he’s now just over a year away from free agency. Despite those three clubs apparently putting together serious offers, it seems none of them were close to the understandably high asking price of the Angels.
The reigning AL MVP, Ohtani is putting together another historic season to add to his already impressive list of accolades. His power has fallen off slightly, as his 22 home runs on the year puts him on pace to fall short of last year’s 46. But apart from that, his .255/.352/.495 slash line this year isn’t too far from last year’s .257/.372/.592. His 135 wRC+ this year is seventeen points behind last year, but still 35% better than the league average hitter. On the pitching side of things, he’s actually improved relative to the previous season. He’s dropped his ERA from 3.18 to 2.81, increased his strikeout rate from 29.3% to 36.4% and lowered his walk rate from 8.3% to 5.8%.
Given that he’s producing excellent results on both sides of the ball and making a modest $5.5MM salary, it’s hard to fathom a team that wouldn’t be interested in making use of his services. The Yankees are known to be looking for rotation help, having checked in on some of the top available names like Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo, before the latter was traded to the Mariners. They’ve also checked in on offensive upgrades, recently acquiring Andrew Benintendi. Acquiring Ohtani would have crowded the DH mix a little, though the Yanks were surely willing to find a way to work with that situation for such a historic player.
The Padres already have a rotation surplus but have been considering trading away from it as a way to reduce their payroll commitments. It’s possible that they could have combined an Ohtani trade with a trade of Blake Snell or Mike Clevinger, in order to get Ohtani into the rotation and then also upgrade the lineup.
The White Sox have a solid five-man rotation right now but have been exploring the market for upgrades anyway, with Michael Kopech perhaps working his way towards some load management as the season goes on. He’s already thrown 88 1/3 innings this year after only throwing 69 1/3 frames over the three previous seasons combined.
Regardless of how much sense Ohtani would have made for those teams, it doesn’t appear as though the Angels came close to a deal that they gave serious consideration to. It’s perfectly logical for them to want to hang onto such an unprecedented talent, though this decision won’t provide any long-term clarity. The Angels are still 43-59 and destined to finish another season watching the postseason from home. That will leave 2023 as the club’s last chance to build a winning roster around Ohtani, unless they are able to work out an extension.
That latter course will surely be appealing to Angels’ fans but will come with complications for the front office. The latest reporting indicated that Ohtani and his camp were looking to surpass Max Scherzer‘s record for annual average value of a contract, $43.3MM. That number would be added to a payroll that already includes Mike Trout getting over $37MM per year through 2028 while Anthony Rendon getting paid similarly through 2026. That could leave the Halos paying around $120MM per season to just three players. That wouldn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for a team that’s never run an Opening Day payroll above $190MM. If an extension can’t be worked out, then perhaps Ohtani’s name will show up in trade rumors in more serious fashion one year from now.
AL Central Trade Rumors: Taylor, Braves, Plesac, Phillies, Fulmer, Sox, Robertson, Givens
The Braves and Royals have already swung one trade together this month, and we’re a year removed from the huge-in-hindsight swap that sent Jorge Soler to Atlanta. Now, the Braves have interest in another K.C. outfielder, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) reports that Michael A. Taylor is under consideration. Taylor is delivering his usual excellent center field defense while also enjoying the best offensive season of his career, with a 111 wRC+ from hitting .275/.345/.395 in 262 plate appearances.
Since Taylor is under contract through 2023, he represents a longer-term option for an Atlanta club that could lose Adam Duvall in free agency this winter. Duvall is already out for the rest of the season due to wrist surgery, so Taylor could step right in as the right-handed hitting side of a left field platoon with Eddie Rosario. Taylor also provides cover in center field if star rookie Michael Harris starts to slump, but playing Taylor and Harris in the same outfield would also make for an excellent defensive pairing.
More from around the AL Central…
- Reports surfaced earlier this week that the Guardians were open to discussing their controllable starting pitchers in trade talks, and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Phillies have interest in right-hander Zach Plesac. A trade for Plesac or any controllable pitcher would be a little complex, since Cleveland is naturally in the playoff race and is likely looking for at least some players that can provide immediate help. This could perhaps help the Phils, who don’t have a terribly deep farm system, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently said that “I just don’t think we’re there” in terms of having the flexibility to deal their top prospects. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia thinks the Phillies are likelier to move position-player prospects than young pitchers. Speculatively, a top-100 prospect like catcher Logan O’Hoppe could be of particular interest to a Guardians team that has been looking for a long-term answer behind the plate.
- The Blue Jays are one of the teams showing interest in Tigers reliever Michael Fulmer, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The former AL Rookie of the Year has revived his career with two strong years as a relief pitcher, and is a natural trade chip for the struggling Tigers since Fulmer is scheduled for free agency after the season. Toronto’s bullpen has been generally solid but somewhat inconsistent, and Fulmer would help reinforce the high-leverage innings in front of All-Star closer Jordan Romano.
- Cubs relievers David Robertson and Mychal Givens are among the bullpen arms being considered by the White Sox, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. While it used to be quite rare to see the two Windy City rivals combine on trades, the Sox landed Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera in separate deals just last year, not to mention the Jose Quintana/Eloy Jimenez/Dylan Cease blockbuster back in 2017. Left-handed hitting outfield help also appears to be on the Southsiders’ radar, as Gonzales writes that the White Sox had interest in David Peralta before the Diamondbacks traded Peralta to the Rays earlier today.
White Sox Outright Parker Markel
5:59pm: MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (on Twitter) that Markel has accepted his outright assignment and will remain in the organization.
4:26pm: The White Sox announced this afternoon they’ve outrighted reliever Parker Markel off the 40-man roster. Chicago hadn’t previously announced the righty had been designated for assignment, but he’s evidently already cleared waivers. The 40-man tally drops to 39.
Markel spent about a month and a half on the 40-man roster, having been added off waivers from the A’s in early June. The 31-year-old has spent his entire stint in the organization on optional assignment to Triple-A Charlotte, where he’s struggled. Markel has tossed 14 innings with the Knights, posting a 6.43 ERA despite a quality 28.8% strikeout rate. That’s largely due to strike-throwing issues, as the 6’5″ righty has walked 15.2% of batters faced.
That blend of strikeouts and erratic control is nothing new for Markel. He’d fanned 35.4% of opponents with the A’s top affiliate earlier in the season, managing a 1.89 ERA despite a 12.7% walk percentage. That earned him a brief big league look in Oakland, where he tossed three scoreless innings in his first MLB action since 2019.
Markel has previously been outrighted in his career, meaning he’ll have the right to elect minor league free agency. The team didn’t announce whether he plans to do so or will stick with the Knights and try to work his way back onto the roster.
Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central
The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).
St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.
Some more notes on the trade market for starters…
- The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
- For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
- As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.
White Sox, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Jose Quintana
The White Sox and Yankees are among the clubs expressing interest in Pirates starter José Quintana, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The veteran southpaw is almost certain to change teams as a fairly productive impending free agent on the fourth-place Bucs.
Chicago is plenty familiar with Quintana, of course. The Colombian-born hurler began his big league career with the South Siders and spent essentially all of his prime seasons there. One of the sport’s best pitchers at his peak, Quintana worked 200+ innings with an ERA of 3.51 or lower each season from 2013-16. The Sox flipped him across town in a 2017 blockbuster that netted them Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez from the Cubs.
Since leaving the White Sox, Quintana has posted more up-and-down production. He’s generally looked like a competent but unexciting back-of-the-rotation arm, excepting last season when he spent a good chunk of the year in the bullpen. Quintana has returned to the rotation full-time since signing with Pittsburgh, taking 19 turns and working 97 1/3 innings. At just a bit more than five frames per start, the 33-year-old has had a relatively sheltered workload. The Pirates have allowed him to face a batter for the third time in an outing on just 68 occasions all season.
While Quintana hasn’t been counted on as a prototypical innings eater, he’s been generally effective on a rate basis. He owns a 3.70 ERA, his lowest mark since his final full season with the White Sox. Quintana has a modest 20.7% strikeout rate, but he’s induced swinging strikes on a slightly above-average 11.1% of his pitches. After an uncharacteristic spike in walks last season, he’s again demonstrating his more typical strong control (7.1% walk percentage).
Quintana won’t be the most exciting player on the move this summer, but there’s value for contenders in stability at the back of the rotation. The White Sox have gotten ace-level production from Cease, and minor league signee Johnny Cueto has provided an invaluable 2.72 ERA through 12 starts. However, the Sox have gotten underwhelming work from Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. Hard-throwing righty Michael Kopech has shown well in moving from the bullpen to the rotation, but his 83 innings are already past last year’s 69 1/3 frames. Pitching coach Ethan Katz pushed back against the idea that Kopech will be on any sort of innings limit this evening (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Nevertheless, there’s room for another arm capable of reducing some of the pressure on Kopech, particularly with Vince Velasquez on the injured list due to blister trouble.
The Yankees are also familiar with Quintana, although he’s never suited up for them in the major leagues. He spent three years in their minor league system before making his MLB debut, departing as a minor league free agent after the 2011 campaign. Of course, the far more relevant concern for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff would be to fortify the depth of a rotation that recently lost Luis Severino to a lat strain. The Yankees rotation has been very good overall but middle-of-the-pack over the past month, with Jameson Taillon particularly struggling of late. As with the White Sox, New York probably wouldn’t look to Quintana to supplant anyone in their top five, but rather as a swing option who can add some stability behind that group.
Quintana should have a fairly broad range of appeal to pitching-needy clubs, as he’s affordable. He’s playing this season on just a $2MM base salary, around $800K of which remains owed. That’s a marginal sum, no doubt intriguing with the White Sox and Yankees each looking to bolster rosters that are already running franchise-record payrolls.
Draft Signings: Mariners, White Sox, Reds, Orioles
Here is today’s roundup of top-39 (first round, supplemental round, Competitive Balance Round A) draft picks who have signed their first pro contracts. For further reference, here is the full list of recommended slot prices, and you can click the links for full pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
- The Mariners have signed their picks from the first three rounds, according to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer (Twitter link). This includes 21st overall pick Cole Young, who received a $3.3MM bonus that is slightly above the $3,292,900 slot price. The high school shortstop was a consensus pick in the 12-20 range by evaluators, and is considered to have a high floor as an all-around talent and future big leaguer, though there is some question whether he has the skillset to be a regular starter.
- The White Sox agreed to a deal with left-hander Noah Schultz, according to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. (The Sox officially announced Schultz’s signing later in the day.) Schultz’s $2.8MM bonus is also a touch above the $2,789,400 assigned to the 26th overall pick. A local product born in Napierville, Illinois, Schultz is already 6’9″ at age 18, and owns a plus slider and an unconventional low-slot delivery. McDaniel was the highest of the pundits on Schultz’s potential, ranking the southpaw 34th in the draft class.
- The Reds agreed to sign Sal Stewart for $2,097,500, Callis reports. This is under the $2,373,000 slot price attached to the 32nd overall selection, which could reflect a slight reach on the Reds’ part — BA was the highest on Stewart with a 58th overall ranking, and Law had Stewart 59th. That said, McDaniel thought Stewart could be something of a tough sign due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, but the high school third baseman will instead forego college for the minor leagues.
- The Orioles announced the signing of Dylan Beavers, the 33rd overall selection. Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Ruiz (Twitter link) reports that Beavers received a $2.2MM bonus, providing the O’s with some savings under the $2,315,100 slot price. Pipeline ranked the Cal outfielder 22nd in its rankings, writing that “when Beavers is locked in, he’s the proverbial five-tool player,” though Beavers had had some issues staying consistent.
White Sox Notes: Robert, Grandal, Bummer, Bullpen
The White Sox placed center fielder Luis Robert on the 10-day injured list due to blurred vision before tonight’s contest with the Guardians. The placement is backdated to July 19, meaning he’ll first be eligible to return a week from now. He’s been dealing with lightheadedness for the past week, and the team will give him a bit more time to work through the issue.
It doesn’t seem to be a huge concern, as general manager Rick Hahn told reporters (including Vinnie Duber of CHGO Sports) the team was hopeful he could return after a week. Even if he’s back when first eligible, Chicago will have to go a couple pivotal series without arguably their top position player. Robert is hitting .301/.334/.461 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases across 323 plate appearances.
In a corresponding move, the Sox reinstated backstop Yasmani Grandal from the IL. Lower back spasms cost the switch-hitting catcher around five weeks. Now that he’s back to health, Grandal will try to get on track after struggling through arguably his worst couple months as a major leaguer. He carries just a .185/.294/.237 line through 201 plate appearances, a shocking downturn for a player who hit .240/.420/.520 last season.
In other injury news, reliever Aaron Bummer told reporters this afternoon he remains about three weeks from getting back onto a mound (via James Fegan of the Athletic). Bummer, who has been out since the second week of June due to a lat strain, is hoping to return to the major league club at some point in early September. That makes it a virtual lock he’ll be transferred to the 60-day injured list whenever Chicago needs a 40-man roster spot, and his still faraway return timeline will play a role in the team’s deadline approach.
Hahn told reporters that, in light of Bummer’s injury, relief pitching is “probably the most obvious need” for his club (via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). The Sox have invested heavily in the bullpen in recent seasons, signing Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly to multi-year free agent deals (in addition to a lengthy contract extension for Bummer). They’ve nevertheless been a middle-of-the-pack group this year, checking in 17th in ERA (3.90) and 13th in strikeout/walk rate differential (14.9 percentage points). That’s partially due to injury, as Bummer, Hendriks and Kelly have all spent time on the injured list.
Chicago has gotten strong work from both Hendriks and Graveman, as well as former starter Reynaldo López. Along with Kelly, that’s a formidable group of right-handers, but the Sox are down to Tanner Banks as their top southpaw with Bummer on the shelf. Banks has a respectable 3.05 ERA through 38 1/3 innings, but he’s only generating swinging strikes at an 8.4% clip and has a subpar 20.9% strikeout rate.
A southpaw feels like a logical target for Hahn and his staff over the next week and a half. The division-rival Tigers could market Andrew Chafin, who’s likely to decline his player option and hit free agency at the end of the season. Detroit also has hard-throwing Gregory Soto, but he’s controllable through 2025, so the Tigers probably aren’t keen on dealing him to a division rival. Other left-handed relief trade candidates include Joe Mantiply (D-Backs), Steven Okert and Richard Bleier (Marlins) and Matt Moore (Rangers). The Angels Aaron Loup could also draw some interest, although he’s playing on a $7.5MM salary in both this season and next, as well as having a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option. That could make him a tough fit for a Chicago team running a franchise-record payroll even if the Halos were willing to move him.
The White Sox’ Corner Outfield Needs
The 2022 season hasn’t gone at all as the White Sox hoped, but they nevertheless find themselves within striking distance of the AL Central lead, thanks largely to the underwhelming composition of the division as a whole. This comes despite designating fifth starter Dallas Keuchel for assignment after eight starts, despite receiving no production at all from their catchers and despite another injury-ravaged season from Eloy Jimenez (among many other issues).
Some of the White Sox’ struggles weren’t exactly impossible to forecast. Keuchel’s 2021 season was substandard, to say the least, for instance. The Sox were thin on depth behind their Opening Day rotation options, and to the front office’s credit, they struck the absolute jackpot in signing Johnny Cueto to a minor league deal. (Where would they be without his 74 innings of 2.80 ERA ball?)
Not every patchwork option has played out quite so nicely, however. Relying on Leury Garcia and Josh Harrison to hold down second base seemed questionable, at best, and the results are worse than most could’ve imagined. There was no reason to expect Garcia to suddenly become one of the absolute worst hitters in the Majors, but he’s at .205/.232/.262, and the resulting 39 wRC+ (61% worse than league-average) is third-worst in MLB (min. 200 plate appearances). Harrison is better utilized as a utility player, but Garcia’s struggles have increased his role. In Harrison’s defense, his .260/.339/.420 slash against lefties is quite good, and with a better platoon partner he’d be a solid part-time piece. His .223/.293/.350 slash against fellow righties, however, is obviously problematic.
Still, the greatest area of need on this team isn’t second base at the moment, but rather in the corner outfield, where the team’s solution to an offseason need appeared quite sound at the time. When the Sox flipped embattled reliever Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in exchange for outfielder AJ Pollock, it looked as though they’d killed two birds with one stone. Jettisoning Kimbrel following last year’s struggles was a clear priority for the South Siders, and they did so by acquiring a veteran who’d posted a .272/.330/.499 batting line over the past half decade — including an even better .290/.342/.547 slash in his final two seasons with the Dodgers. The trade even saved the White Sox a million dollars; it was hard to find fault with the deal.
Unfortunately, we’ve reached the “even the best laid plans” cliche territory with how that swap has worked out. Pollock missed 10 days with a hamstring strain early in the season and, when healthy, has floundered through the worst season of his 11-year Major League career. In 272 plate appearances, he’s batting just .227/.268/.333 with career-lows in walk rate (5.1%) and hard-hit rate (37.7%). Pollock has already tied a career-worst with 14 infield flies. A whopping 18.2% of the fly-balls he’s hit this season have been classified as infield flies, effectively rendering them automatic outs.
Beyond the glut of pop-ups and dearth of walks, Pollock’s sprint speed has dropped in 2022 — perhaps not an unexpected result for a 34-year-old outfielder who has now thrice been on the injured list with hamstring strains dating back to Opening Day 2021. Statcast measures Pollocks’ average sprint speed at 27.5 feet per second — down from the 28.1 ft/sec he posted in the four seasons prior. It’s not a massive dip, but for a player who derives value from his wheels. Pollock is hitting just .193 on grounders this year — his worst mark since 2017. From 2018-21, he batted no worse than .243 on grounders in a single season and hit .276 on grounders overall. That may not be solely attributable to the dip in his sprint speed, but losing that extra step can’t help his cause.
For all of Pollock’s struggles, however, there’s another reason the Sox need to find an alternative in the outfield: his contract. Considering this year’s performance, it should be a given that Pollock will exercise the $10MM player option on his contract. That’s already onerous enough, but Pollock can boost the value of that option even further, tacking on an additional million dollars for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s at 272 plate appearances right now, so he’s surely not going to reach the top thresholds of that bonus structure, but he could certainly reach 400 or perhaps even 450 plate appearances and tack on another $1-2MM to that option’s value.
There’s no escaping that option for the White Sox, either, barring an unlikely salary dump. Because it’s a player option, the base value is considered guaranteed money. Just as the Padres can’t simply release Eric Hosmer and be free of the $39MM he’s owed after the opt-out clause he has at the end of the current season, the ChiSox can’t cut Pollock and avoid the $10MM he’s promised for next season. If another team were to claim him on waivers, that team would assume responsibility of that player option, but Pollock’s struggles would lead to him going unclaimed.
Beyond that, there’s good reason for the Sox to actually hang onto Pollock — this season’s struggles notwithstanding. While his overall productivity has been poor, Pollock has hit .274/.297/.532 against lefties. Even though just 64 of his 272 plate appearances have come versus southpaws, all four of his homers and four of his 13 doubles have come when holding the platoon advantage. Pollock has crushed lefties throughout his career (.285/.335/.522), so it’s not a surprise to see that trend continue, even as his fate against right-handed opponents has taken a tumble.
The Sox might have been hopeful that Gavin Sheets could serve as a left-handed-hitting corner outfield complement if needed, but he’s hitting just .229/.296/.388 against righties this season. And, as a 6’5″, 230-pound first baseman whose first professional appearance in the outfield was only last season, Sheets has predictably turned in poor defensive marks in 276 innings (-5 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating, -3 Outs Above Average).
The trade market for outfielders isn’t as robust as it has been in seasons past, but there are still some solid lefty-swinging options who could pair well with Pollock to help boost the ChiSox’ fortunes against righties. Andrew Benintendi is the most talked-about member of the bunch, but Cincinnati’s Tyler Naquin is another above-average hitter against righties whose $4MM salary is more affordable than Benintendi’s $8.5MM mark. Arizona’s David Peralta, Baltimore’s Anthony Santander and Washington’s Yadiel Hernandez are all options as well, though the Orioles’ recent winning streak might dissuade them from moving controllable pieces like Santander and Hernandez may not be deemed a big enough upgrade over Sheets.
Whatever names the Sox decide to target, salary figures to be a part of the equation. Chicago’s payroll is already at a franchise-record $194MM, and they already have a hefty $117MM of guaranteed salary on the books in 2023. That doesn’t include Pollock’s player option or the no-brainer decision to pick up Tim Anderson‘s $12.5MM club option — nor does it include arbitration raises for key players like Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech (among others) or a potential deal to bring back stalwart first baseman Jose Abreu, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.
Given those forthcoming financial obligations and a farm system that’s regarded as one of the worst in the league (if not the worst), the White Sox aren’t likely to factor prominently into the Juan Soto bidding. However, a short-term, lefty-hitting corner outfielder to pair with righties Pollock, Jimenez, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Adam Engel would still be useful for a White Sox team that carries an underwhelming .250/.303/.368 batting line against right-handed pitching this season.
Could Lucas Giolito Be This Year’s José Berríos?
On this date one year ago, the Minnesota Twins were 39-50, placing them 15 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and 11 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot. They fell a little bit further back by the deadline and decided they had to do some selling. This was surely a disappointing result after two straight division titles and three postseason berths in four years, but they didn’t have much choice. Injuries and underperformance forced them to punt the season for the sake of the future. However, they still wanted to return to competing in 2022, selling only rentals like Nelson Cruz, J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles. The one exception was José Berríos, who had a year and a half of team control at the time.
The Twins traded Berríos to the Blue Jays, adding a couple of blue chip prospects to the system in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. The hope at the time was that they could bolster their farm but still leave the big league club intact enough to take another shot in 2022. Despite Kenta Maeda‘s subsequent Tommy John surgery, it’s still largely gone to plan so far. The club added Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack this offseason. Even though Paddack followed Maeda down the Tommy John path, the Twins are 49-41, tops in the division, 4 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians.
This year’s White Sox are in a somewhat analogous position to last year’s Twins, although not quite as desperate. They, too, are coming off two consecutive trips to the postseason and had hopes of competing that have been hampered by injury and underperformance. They are currently 43-45, five games behind the Twins in the division and 3 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race. With about three weeks until the deadline, there’s still plenty of time for them to gain some ground and get back in the thick of things. But if things go the other direction and they slip further back, they might consider following the playbook of the Twins last year, picking up some prospects but without destroying the team, and then giving it another go next year.
In a conversation this week between Alyson Footer, Mark Feinsand and Jon Morosi at MLB.com, Morosi shared this thought: “I think it would take a significant tumble for the White Sox for Lucas Giolito to become truly available, but that’s a situation worth watching.” It doesn’t seem like Morosi’s sharing any insider information there, merely speculating on what could become possible in that scenario. Giolito is in the same position as Berríos last year, being a year and a half away from free agency, making him perhaps Chicago’s best chance at recouping a significant prospect return. In terms of rentals, José Abreu is the biggest name but doesn’t seem likely to be dealt given his status within the organization. Johnny Cueto is having a nice season but is 36 years old and probably won’t net a massive haul. Vince Velasquez is doing his usual thing. AJ Pollock is having a poor season, giving him negligible trade value and making it likely he exercises his $10MM player option for next year. Josh Harrison is having an okay-ish season but the 35-year-old utility guy won’t be a hot commodity at the deadline. He also has a $5.5MM club option for next year that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.
Giolito, with his excellent results in recent years and extra control, is perhaps the team’s best shot at really cashing in. One slight problem is that Giolito, like the White Sox, is having a down season. From 2019 to 2021, he put up an ERA of 3.47 over 72 starts, with a 30.7% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 35.6% ground ball rate. This year, through 16 starts, his ERA has jumped up to 4.69. His 27.1% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are a bit worse than recent seasons, but not by much. BABIP seems to be a factor here, as his .338 mark on the season is well above his .272 career rate. That’s not pure bad luck, however, since he’s definitely getting hit harder. His 10.4% barrel rate is well above last year’s 6.7% and the 5.6% from the year before. Giolito is only in the 19th percentile of pitchers in terms of hard hit percentage and 29th in terms of average exit velocity.
Those struggles will likely put a dent in the return the White Sox would get in any trade, but they might need to consider it anyway if they truly slip from the race, as their farm system is generally regarded to be in poor shape. Baseball America recently ranked them last in the majors in their most recent list of organizational talent. Ditto for The Athletic and ESPN and MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs places them 29th, ahead of only Atlanta, with no White Sox prospects on their Top 100 list. In the upcoming draft, they are selecting 26th overall and have the 28th-highest total draft pool.
This makes their position outside the playoff race particularly uncomfortable. Since they’re not that far out, they might want to make a big splash at the deadline in order to give the club a boost and get them back into the race. But doing so would involve further weakening a system that is already in very poor shape. At some point, there must be a point where they consider turning their attention to the future for a few months and then trying to reload in the offseason.
In the scenario where Giolito is moved, the rotation wouldn’t be in awful shape next year. Cueto would also be gone as he’s on a one-year deal, but they would still have Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. That’s still a strong front three to work with. Davis Martin is having a nice season as a depth starter and could perhaps earn a spot at the back of the rotation for next year. Of course, there’s the risk of an injury further depleting the staff, as happened to the Twins when Maeda went down. But they were still able to pivot and overcome that with a busy offseason.
The odds of any of this coming together are still long. With the Sox just 3 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, one hot week can completely wipe out any thoughts of selling. But the same is true in the other direction, as one bad week could suddenly have them six, seven or eight games out. While trading Giolito now would be selling a bit low given his mediocre year, there would surely be clubs who could look to his past results and feel they could turn him around. Just about every contender is looking for starting pitching, with most clubs being connected to Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. But many teams will miss out on those three and be looking for other options. If the White Sox want to give a quick boost to their weak farm but then try to compete again while they still have the core of Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaughn and those aforementioned pitchers, this might be their best bet.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.