Draft Signings: July 30
Here is today’s roundup of top-39 (first round, supplemental round, Competitive Balance Round A) draft picks and some other notable selections who have signed their first pro contracts. For further reference, here is the full list of recommended slot prices, and you can click the links for full pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
- The Guardians announced that all 21 members of their 2022 draft class have signed, including first-rounder Chase DeLauter. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported last week that DeLauter had agreed to sign, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports that DeLauter received $3.75MM, slightly below the $3,937,600 slot value of the 16th overall pick. McDaniel (31st) and Law (35th) were lower on DeLauter than the other pundits, who all had the James Madison outfielder in the 18-21 range. DeLauter has a lot of hitting potential and likely profiles as a right field down the road, but he missed most of the spring due to a broken foot.
- Oklahoma State right-hander Justin Campbell received a $1.7MM bonus from Cleveland, Callis reports, below the $2,101,800 slot price for the 37th overall pick. On the pundits’ boards, Campbell ranged from 27th (Baseball America) to 42nd (Fangraphs), with BA being particularly impressed by “one of the best changeups in this year’s draft,” as well as Campbell’s plus curveball.
- The Guardians also made a notable above-slot deal with their 10th-round selection, as right-hander Jacob Zibin received a $1.2MM bonus that Callis reports is the highest given to any tenth-rounder. The $1.2MM figure dwarfs the $152K slot price for the 301st overall pick, and it may have been necessary to pull Zibin away from his commitment to the University of Kentucky. The 17-year-old Zibin is a product of Florida’s TNXL Academy, and would have also been draft-eligible next year due to his age.
AL Central Trade Rumors: Taylor, Braves, Plesac, Phillies, Fulmer, Sox, Robertson, Givens
The Braves and Royals have already swung one trade together this month, and we’re a year removed from the huge-in-hindsight swap that sent Jorge Soler to Atlanta. Now, the Braves have interest in another K.C. outfielder, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) reports that Michael A. Taylor is under consideration. Taylor is delivering his usual excellent center field defense while also enjoying the best offensive season of his career, with a 111 wRC+ from hitting .275/.345/.395 in 262 plate appearances.
Since Taylor is under contract through 2023, he represents a longer-term option for an Atlanta club that could lose Adam Duvall in free agency this winter. Duvall is already out for the rest of the season due to wrist surgery, so Taylor could step right in as the right-handed hitting side of a left field platoon with Eddie Rosario. Taylor also provides cover in center field if star rookie Michael Harris starts to slump, but playing Taylor and Harris in the same outfield would also make for an excellent defensive pairing.
More from around the AL Central…
- Reports surfaced earlier this week that the Guardians were open to discussing their controllable starting pitchers in trade talks, and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Phillies have interest in right-hander Zach Plesac. A trade for Plesac or any controllable pitcher would be a little complex, since Cleveland is naturally in the playoff race and is likely looking for at least some players that can provide immediate help. This could perhaps help the Phils, who don’t have a terribly deep farm system, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently said that “I just don’t think we’re there” in terms of having the flexibility to deal their top prospects. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia thinks the Phillies are likelier to move position-player prospects than young pitchers. Speculatively, a top-100 prospect like catcher Logan O’Hoppe could be of particular interest to a Guardians team that has been looking for a long-term answer behind the plate.
- The Blue Jays are one of the teams showing interest in Tigers reliever Michael Fulmer, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The former AL Rookie of the Year has revived his career with two strong years as a relief pitcher, and is a natural trade chip for the struggling Tigers since Fulmer is scheduled for free agency after the season. Toronto’s bullpen has been generally solid but somewhat inconsistent, and Fulmer would help reinforce the high-leverage innings in front of All-Star closer Jordan Romano.
- Cubs relievers David Robertson and Mychal Givens are among the bullpen arms being considered by the White Sox, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. While it used to be quite rare to see the two Windy City rivals combine on trades, the Sox landed Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera in separate deals just last year, not to mention the Jose Quintana/Eloy Jimenez/Dylan Cease blockbuster back in 2017. Left-handed hitting outfield help also appears to be on the Southsiders’ radar, as Gonzales writes that the White Sox had interest in David Peralta before the Diamondbacks traded Peralta to the Rays earlier today.
Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central
The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).
St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.
Some more notes on the trade market for starters…
- The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
- For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
- As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.
Guardians Open To Dealing Controllable Starters
With the demand for starting pitching at its annual peak, the Guardians are open to opportunistically dealing from their big league rotation, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are the two names they’re most willing to consider, and Passan adds that while Cleveland will typically listen to offers for any player, the ask on top starter Shane Bieber would be “exorbitant.”
To be clear, Cleveland’s willingness to entertain offers on some controllable starters doesn’t by any means signal a white flag for the season. They’ve walked this fine line for years, dealing from deep and talented rotations to align with ownership’s payroll restrictions while leaning heavily on their uncanny ability to develop high-quality replacements. In the past three calendar years, we’ve seen Cleveland trade Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco — yet the Guardians still have a collective 4.05 rotation ERA and a trio of homegrown arms with ERAs of 3.75 or better.
The 27-year-old Plesac will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three years beyond the current campaign. He’s made 18 starts and tallied 99 innings of 4.09 ERA ball, striking out a tepid 17% of his opponents against a more impressive 6.1% walk rate. Through 412 2/3 big league innings, he’s punched out 18.6% of the batters he’s faced, walked just 6.2% of them and kept 41.9% of batted balls against him on the ground — a bit shy of league average in that regard.
Plesac briefly looked as though he was blossoming into a more impactful starter with a strong run of eight starts in the shortened 2020 season, but he’s generally looked like a capable fourth starter outside that quick glimpse. There’s plenty of value in three-plus years of a solid mid- or back-of-the-rotation starter — particularly one who’s been durable. Plesac has been able to avoid any arm injuries of note to this point in his career, though the team couldn’t have been pleased last season when he broke his thumb while “aggressively ripping off his shirt” (manager Terry Francona’s words) following a poor start.
Civale, also 27, would be something of a buy-low candidate for other clubs. The right-hander looked to have cemented himself in Cleveland’s rotation after tossing 256 innings of 3.76 ERA ball from 2019-21, but he’s on the shelf right now with a wrist sprain and has had poor results when healthy enough to take the mound. Civale’s strikeout, walk and home-run rates are all right in line with his solid career averages, but he’s still sporting an ugly 6.17 ERA in 54 frames this season.
Part of those struggles stem from a bloated .350 average on balls in play — well higher than the career .275 mark he carried into the season. He’s also been hampered by a 59.1% strand rate that looks anomalous, particularly when compared to the 76.3% mark he posted from 2019-21. However, while those traits point to some poor luck, this season’s struggles can’t be blamed solely on those oddities. Civale is also yielding the highest average exit velocity, opponents’ barrel rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate of his career, and his already modest fastball is down from an average of 91.5 mph (2019-21) to 90.7 mph in 2022.
As with Plesac, Civale is controlled for three years beyond the current season. The Guardians might be selling at his value’s all-time low if they were to move him right now, which makes a deal somewhat tough to imagine. With a strong finish to the season and/or a strong first-half showing in 2023, Civale’s trade value would be considerably higher than it presently is. Then again, if the front office is bearish on his chances of a turnaround, now would arguably be the time to act.
The mere mention of Bieber’s name in anything trade-adjacent will surely excite fans of other clubs and lead to speculation, though it’s unlikely a trade involving the 2020 Cy Young winner will actually come together. Bieber’s average fastball has dipped from 94.3 mph in that 2020 peak to a pedestrian 91.9 mph in 2022, and advocates for a trade might feel that since he hasn’t matched that brilliant Cy Young form, the Guardians ought to sell high.
However, even with a lesser fastball, Bieber has pitched to a 3.37 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 208 1/3 innings since Opening Day 2021. Perhaps he’s not quite the dominant ace he appeared to be a couple years ago, but he’s still a well above-average starting pitcher with excellent command and at least average strikeout and ground-ball abilities.
It’s feasible, if not downright likely, that the always payroll-conscious Guardians eventually trade Bieber, as his salary will continue to climb throughout the arbitration process. He’s earning $6MM this season, could jump north of $10MM in 2023 and would receive another raise in 2024 before reaching free agency at the end of that season. They could always revisit a potential extension with the 27-year-old, hoping to pair him with the recently extended Jose Ramirez as a franchise cornerstone, but even if a long-term deal can’t be reached, a trade when Bieber is closer to free agency is likelier than a deal in the midst of a summer in which Cleveland finds itself just 2.5 games behind the division-leading Twins.
Given that proximity to the division lead, it’ll surely surprise many fans to hear that the Guardians are open to trading from the big league rotation at all. However, moving a starting pitcher like Plesac at peak value would allow them to further stockpile one of the best farm systems in the industry and/or add immediate Major League help at another position of need. With Konnor Pilkington holding his own in the big leagues so far, righty Peyton Battenfield touting a 3.32 ERA in 108 1/3 Triple-A frames, and a deep reservoir of pitching talent throughout its loaded farm system, Cleveland may feel it has the depth to weaken the back of its rotation. Speculatively, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti could also pull off some sleight of hand by dealing Plesac for sizable prospect capital and/or big league help and then immediately replacing him with a rental (e.g. Jose Quintana) whose prospect cost would be lesser than that of the just-traded controllable starter.
With so many teams in the market for pitching, it’s only natural for the Guardians to listen to offers on some of their current starters. This is a page right out of the playbook from Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff, and we’ve seen them execute similar scenarios nicely in the past. A trade of a Cleveland starter shouldn’t be considered a given, but looking at the names they’ve shipped out over the past few years, it also shouldn’t come as a shock, either.
Outrights: Tully, Swarmer, Ogando
A couple updates on some recently DFAed players who’ll remain with their organizations…
- The Rays announced that righty Cristofer Ogando was outrighted to Triple-A Durham (h/t to Neil Solondz). He was designated for assignment when the team signed Roman Quinn last week. The 28-year-old only made one appearance, tossing two innings of one-run ball during his major league debut on July 3. He’s otherwise spent the season with the Bulls, logging 36 2/3 frames with a 3.68 ERA and roughly average strikeout and walk rates (24.2% and 8.2%, respectively). Ogando has never previously been outrighted, so he’ll remain in the organization and try to pitch his way back onto the 40-man roster before the end of the year.
Earlier
- The Guardians assigned left-hander Tanner Tully to Triple-A Columbus after he went unclaimed on outright waivers, per the transactions log at MLB.com. The 24-year-old Tully has pitched six big league innings this season and yielded four runs on eight hits and a hefty six walks with just two punchouts. Tully, a former 26th-round pick, has pitched better in Columbus but still doesn’t have dominant numbers: a 4.93 ERA, 17.1% strikeout rate, 3.4% walk rate and 50% grounder rate through 80 1/3 innings. That outstanding walk rate and strong ground-ball ability are undeniably impressive, but Tully has never been regarded among the organization’s best prospects and has a career 4.91 ERA in parts of four Triple-A seasons. He’ll continue to serve as rotation depth for the time being.
- Cubs righty Matt Swarmer was assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa after clearing waivers, per the team. Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register tweeted this morning that Swarmer rejoined the club today. The 28-year-old allowed just two earned runs through his first dozen innings during this year’s MLB debut, but the success proved fleeting. Swarmer was tagged for 14 runs over his next three starts (12 2/3 innings) before being moved to the bullpen and continuing to struggle there (2.89 ERA but 10 walks in 9 1/3 innings). On the whole, Swarmer has a 5.03 ERA with a 36-to-20 K/BB ratio in 34 innings. He does have a 2.08 ERA in 39 Triple-A frames this season, and he’ll look to build on that in hopes of earning another big league look in the season’s final few months.
Guardians Should Be In The Market For Another Hitter
The Guardians hit the All-Star Break on a high note, sweeping the Tigers in a weekend series to pull to 46-44. Coupled with a slump from the Twins, Cleveland moved within two games in the AL Central standings and pulled to within 2 1/2 in the Wild Card race. They’ve outscored opponents by five runs over the course of the year, about what one would expect from a team that’s two games above .500.
Slightly above-average play is enough to hang around the playoff picture, particularly for a team in the sport’s weakest division. The team has done enough the front office is likely to explore ways to add over the coming weeks, particularly if they hold their own during the next three series. Cleveland comes out of the break with sets against the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays — each of whom is a direct competitor in the Wild Card race (with Chicago obviously also a division threat).
The Guardians have been a middle-of-the-pack team in most areas. They rank 17th with a 99 wRC+, with their .249/.314/.384 slash line checking in a percentage point below average. They’re a matching 17th in runs scored (391) and in rotation ERA (4.00) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.4 percentage points). The bullpen and defense each check in around the back half of the top ten by most metrics.
Despite their generally well-rounded nature, a few positions stand out as areas for possible upgrade. Like most contenders, they could look to add some help at the back-of-the-rotation. Aaron Civale has been hit hard and went on the injured list last week after spraining his wrist; sixth starter Konnor Pilkington has struggled, and Zach Plesac has been just alright over the past two seasons after his excellent 2020 showing. There’s room for a back-end pickup, particularly if Civale is set to miss an extended stretch, but the Guardians have an abundance of pitching prospects and a strong developmental track record that could reduce their urgency to play for a top-of-the-market arm.
On the position player side, both center field and catcher have been offensive black holes this year. Neither seems like an area the Guardians will feel they have to address, though. Myles Straw signed a long-term extension just last winter. He’s not hitting, but he’s at least playing excellent defense that’ll keep him towards the bottom of the order on a regular basis. That’s even more true of Austin Hedges, but Cleveland has long prioritized a catcher’s work behind the plate than what he does at it. They’d probably be interested if the A’s made controllable defensive stalwart Sean Murphy available. A deal for the top rental, bat-first Willson Contreras, feels less characteristic, although one can make an argument for the Guardians to make an earnest pursuit of the Cubs backstop.
Even if they sit out the center field and catcher markets, the Guardians should be in on the top corner bats available this summer. They’ve gotten decent production out of the corner outfield, with rookies Steven Kwan, Óscar González and Nolan Jones all hitting the ground running. Cleveland doesn’t have to push any of them out of the lineup immediately, but there’s enough uncertainty with each that regression in any case wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Kwan has settled in as an average hitter after an otherworldly first week. González, who has missed the past three weeks with an intercostal strain, has solid numbers and obvious physical tools but has chased over 40% of pitches he’s been thrown outside the strike zone through his first 32 MLB games. Jones has an excellent minor league track record but just ten games of big league experience thus far.
Each of Kwan, Jones and González (when healthy) has done enough to stay in the lineup, but adding a complementary veteran with a longer track record would still fit. In the near term, that player could step in at designated hitter and cut into the playing time of Franmil Reyes, who is having by far the worst season of his career. Through 243 plate appearances, Reyes owns a .216/.259/.357 line. He’s hit eight home runs but is striking out at a 39.9% clip that ranks as the highest rate of any player with 200+ trips to the plate. That’d be insufficient production even were he bringing other value to the table, but it’s particularly striking for a player who’s primarily limited to designated hitter duties.
There are reasons for the Guardians to hold out some hope for Reyes to get back on track. He’d been an above-average hitter during each of his first four big league seasons, including a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. He’s still posting huge exit velocities and hard contact numbers, no surprise for a player of his strength. Reyes is swinging and missing more than ever this season, but he’s never been a good contact hitter. He’s thrived in the past in spite of strikeouts based on his power, and his numbers have ticked up since he returned from a three-week injured list stint. After hitting .195/.255/.278 through mid-May, Reyes owns a .245/.265/.468 showing over the past month.
He’s still struck out in 40 of his 98 plate appearances since returning, however, drawing only three walks over that stretch. With the Guardians right on the fringes of contention, they may not be able to afford him too much leeway to cut his swing-and-miss to more manageable levels. Adding a veteran bat would allow manager Terry Francona to reduce Reyes’ immediate playing time while guarding against regression elsewhere around the diamond. An outfield-capable player may be ideal given the limited track records of González and Jones, but were the team to add a DH/first base-only type, Reyes himself could be a corner outfield option if he can get on track. Josh Naylor has been excellent at first base this season, but he entered 2022 with an inconsistent MLB track record. As with the outfielders, there won’t be any thought of replacing Naylor right now, but some insurance in case he tails off in the second half could be welcome.
As far as potential targets, Josh Bell is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The Nationals are sure to move him, although the Guardians could balk at taking on the approximate $3.9MM remaining on his salary from the deadline onwards. Trey Mancini is having a nice year and would draw interest if the Orioles deal him, but Baltimore’s recent run of solid play at least raises a question about his availability. The Marlins could fall far enough out of the picture to deal Garrett Cooper, who’ll only make around $1MM for the stretch run and is arbitration-eligible for a final time next winter. The D-Backs are willing to trade Christian Walker. He’s not much costlier than Cooper and can be kept around for two more years via arbitration.
None of that group is likely to require an overwhelming prospect return, and the Guardians abundance of pitching prospects and upper minors infielders could allow them to part with an interesting player or two from the middle tier of the farm system. None would burden the long-term payroll outlook, and they’d go a long way towards fortifying a solid 2022 roster that finds itself right in the thick of the playoff race with two and a half months left.
Giants Acquire Alex Young From Guardians
The Giants have acquired left-handed pitcher Alex Young from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Guardians had designated him for assignment last week. He has been optioned to Triple-A Sacramento. In order to open a spot for Young on the 40-man roster, fellow lefty Aaron Fletcher has been outrighted to Sacramento.
Young, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Diamondbacks in July of last year. He threw 10 1/3 innings for Cleveland last year but has only logged one third of inning here in 2022. In 32 Triple-A frames on the year, he has a 3.66 ERA, which might not be eye-popping, though his rate stats are excellent. He has a 35.6% strikeout rate, well above the 22.3% MLB average. His 5.3% walk rate and 52% are also a few ticks better than league-wide marks. The reason those haven’t translated into a pristine ERA, however, is a whopping 23.8% HR/FB rate, more than double the 11.4% MLB average. The Giants will get him some work in Sacramento and hope to find a way to limit those long balls.
It seems the Giants were intrigued enough by those minor league numbers to consider him a better use of a roster spot than Fletcher. The 26-year-old was just claimed off waivers from the Pirates last week. Though there hadn’t been any public indication of a subsequent roster move, they evidently passed him through waivers in recent days. He made his MLB debut in 2020 and has logged 19 2/3 total innings at the big league level with an unsightly 9.15 ERA. His Triple-A ERA is a much more pleasant 1.45 this year, despite a meager 11% strikeout rate. He’s typically posted high ground ball marks, though, as evidenced by his 55.2% rate in Triple-A this season. He will stay in the Giants organization as depth, but without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.
Guardians Designate Tanner Tully For Assignment
The Guardians announced a couple of roster moves today, activating right-hander Carlos Vargas from the 60-day injured list and optioning him to Double-A Akron. To make room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Tanner Tully has been designated for assignment.
Tully, 27, has been on and off the Guardians roster all year. He was first selected as a COVID substitute in April, being removed from the roster five days later. (COVID substitutes can be removed from rosters without being exposed to waivers.) He was selected to the roster in the more traditional sense in June, before being designated for assignment a couple of days later. A few days ago, he was selected back to the team but has now been DFA’d for a second time this season.
With all of that roster shuffling, he’s only been able to throw six MLB innings this year, his first taste of the majors. Though those innings came in three relief appearances with the Guardians, he’s been working as a starter in the minors. In 14 Triple-A starts this year, he’s thrown 76 1/3 innings with a 4.95 ERA, 51.4% ground ball rate, 16.9% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate.
The Guardians will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him. If he were to clear waivers, he would be eligible to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency by virtue of having previously been outrighted in his career.
Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser
This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA
Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.
The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.
Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484
Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.
Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.
Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477
Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.
Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.
Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340
Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.
On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.
Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.
Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615
In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.
If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.
Five More
Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.
Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.
Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.
Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.
Outrights: Leon, Vieaux, Kelly
We’ll kick Friday morning off with a trio of outright assignments…
- Veteran catcher Sandy Leon cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Guardians and has been sent outright to Triple-A Columbus, per the league’s transactions page. The team did not formally announce the move, and Leon had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency. However, he was back in the lineup with Columbus last night, so he’s clearly accepted the assignment and will remain in Triple-A for the time being (without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster). The 33-year-old switch-hitter batted .133/.381/.133 in a tiny sample of 21 plate appearances with Cleveland in his second big league stint with the organization in the past three years. He’ll remain on hand as a veteran depth option with a strong reputation for defense and receiving but just a .211/.279/.317 batting line in parts of 11 MLB seasons.
- The Pirates announced that left-hander Cam Vieaux went unclaimed on waivers. He’s been sent outright to Triple-A Indianapolis and will remain in the organization without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster. Vieaux’s stint with the major league club was fairly brief. Selected to the majors in mid-June, the 28-year-old made five appearances over the next couple weeks. Vieaux began his big league career with three scoreless outings, but he retired only one of three batters faced on June 29. Two days later, he was called upon for mop-up work against the Brewers. Milwaukee sent 13 batters to the plate in one inning against him, plating eight runs on six hits and three walks before he made it out of the inning after a staggering 56 pitches. Pittsburgh optioned Vieaux a few days later and, after two more minor league appearances, designated him for assignment. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he’ll head back to Indianapolis in hopes of building on his 2.12 ERA through 29 2/3 innings and, more importantly, earning his way back to the big leagues.
- Right-hander Michael Kelly cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, per an announcement from the Phillies. The 29-year-old made his big league debut with the Phils in mid-June and has pitched four innings of one-run ball across a pair of stints with the team. However, he’s also been hit hard in Triple-A, where he’s toting a 7.33 ERA through 23 1/3 innings on the season. To his credit, Kelly has punched out 30.8% of his Triple-A opponents this season, and that bloated ERA is at least partially due to a sky-high .439 average on balls in play against him. That said, the former No. 48 overall pick (Padres, 2011) has also walked far too many hitters (11.2%) — a trait that has plagued him throughout parts of five seasons in Triple-A, where he has an 11.7% walk rate through 170 2/3 innings.