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Trade Rumors: CarGo, Giants, Flores, Mets

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Carlos Gonzalez will achieve his 10-and-5 rights (and thus full no-trade protection) on July 19, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi writes, so the Rockies may need to move quickly if they want to freely move the veteran outfielder.  The Rockies aren’t really deadline sellers at this point, as their modest 44-43 record is still keeping them 4.5 games back in both the NL West and NL wild card races, though Gonzalez is providing only moderate value and could be expendable.  The 32-year-old hasn’t done much to bounce back from a mediocre 2017 season, as CarGo is hitting just .267/.316/.427 with seven homers in 244 PA.  Those numbers contain some lopsided splits, as he hasn’t been at all productive against left-handed pitching or away from Coors Fields, making him a pretty limited asset for potential trade partners.  Gonzalez is only under contract through this season via a one-year, $5MM deal, and he is enough of a respected figure in Colorado that the Rox may want to keep him for their pennant push rather than arrange a trade.

More Fourth-of-July buzz about some teams likely to be active at the deadline…

  • Giants GM Bobby Evans recently described the team’s desire to keep payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold as “a target, not a mandate” in terms of making roster upgrades, though a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that avoiding the tax “is a must” for the club.  After passing the tax limit for multiple seasons, San Francisco could be charged only a 20 percent tax on the overage rather than 50 percent if it can keep its payroll in check for the season.  This didn’t keep the Giants from some big offseason spending, and they have very little room for further additions at the deadline if they want to make a playoff push, which could greatly complicate things for Evans and the front office.  “They’ll have a better feel for what they need at the [All-Star] break, but they may very well have to move money to add money,” the source said.
  • Wilmer Flores is hoping to remain with the Mets, though the New York Post’s Mike Puma writes that Flores is one of several veterans who could be shipped out by the trade deadline.  Flores has been getting a lot of playing time, which could simply be because Flores is one of the few Mets swinging the bat well, or because first baseman Dominic Smith has been dealing with a minor wrist injury.  Alternatively, the Mets could be giving potential trade partners a long look at what Flores can do.  The infielder is controlled through the 2019 season and can play at first, second, and third base, not to mention being a regular at shortstop as recently as 2015.
  • The Mets may be forced to deal more controllable assets like Flores or even major pieces like Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom if they want to get a truly quality return, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes, since the team isn’t likely to receive much in the way of young talent if they only stick to dealing impending free agents.  None of the prospects received by the team in last season’s deadline deals of walk-year veterans, for instance, have shown much promise this season.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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NL Notes: Arenado, Brewers, Cubs

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With Nolan Arenado scheduled to hit free agency after next season, the Rockies third baseman is sure to sign a massive contract in the near future. But Arenado tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that winning – not money – will be his top priority as he determines his future. “I don’t want to lose anymore. I just hate it,’’ said Arenado, who has only played in one playoff game since debuting in 2013 and is “jealous” of the success the NL West rival Dodgers and Giants have enjoyed in recent years. Before Arenado potentially hits free agency, he’ll be watching with interest as fellow superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado test the open market during the upcoming winter. However, given that Arenado is older than both Harper and Machado (he’ll play his age-29 season in 2020), he doesn’t expect to rake in as much money on his next contract as they will on theirs. “I’m not here to say that whatever they get, I’m going to get,” he said. “Those guys are younger. I don’t expect to get the numbers they get. But as a fan of baseball, it will be cool to see what happens. I’ll sit back this winter and watch like everybody else.’’ While the Rockies could prevent Arenado from hitting the market via an extension, he’s not going “to start the dialogue.’’ Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich seems optimistic, though, telling Nightengale “there’s no rush to force anything now” and suggesting the team and Arenado have a good relationship.

Now for the latest on a pair of NL Central teams:

  • As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, the Brewers are “open to every possibility,” according to GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). With his team in first place in the NL Central by 1 1/2 games, Stearns is “highly motivated” to make improvements, writes Haudricourt, who notes that the Brewers could opt for a high-profile addition to their lineup instead of their rotation. That could be Machado, who’d be a massive upgrade for a Brewers team that hasn’t gotten much from the shortstop position this year and sent Orlando Arcia to the minors Sunday. Machado’s not under contract beyond this season, though, and as a result, Haudricourt doesn’t expect the Brewers to end up with him.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve placed reliever Brian Duensing on the 10-day disabled list and recalled right-hander Dillon Maples from Triple-A Iowa. The left-handed Duensing is dealing with fatigue in his pitching shoulder, which continues a less-than-ideal season for the 35-year-old. After Duensing posted an outstanding 2017 with the Cubs, they re-signed him to a two-year, $7MM deal in the offseason. The investment hasn’t paid off so far, though, as Duensing has logged a bloated 6.92 ERA with horrid strikeout and walk rates (5.88 K/9, 6.92 BB/9) in 26 innings.

Rockies Option Jon Gray To Triple-A

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The Rockies optioned right-hander Jon Gray to Triple-A Albuquerque today, as noted as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Outfielder Raimel Tapia was promoted in the corresponding move.

Though Gray has struggled this season, the demotion still counts as a surprise on a number of levels.  Formerly one of the game’s top prospects, Gray posted solid numbers in 2016 and then took another positive step with an even better performance (3.67 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.73 K/BB) over 110 1/3 innings in an injury-shortened 2017.

The hope in Colorado was that Gray would further establish himself as the front-of-the-rotation arm that the franchise has long sought after, though instead, Gray ran into some rough waters.  Over 92 innings, Gray leads the league in both hits and earned runs allowed, to go along with an ugly 5.77 ERA.  He is allowing more hard contact (34.4%) than in either of the past two seasons, while his home run rate is a career-high 15.5%.  One can’t blame Coors Field for Gray’s issue, as his home and road ERAs are basically identical.

These numbers notwithstanding, there is a lot more evidence that Gray’s 5.77 ERA is the product of terrible luck.  Looking at his ERA predictors (3.07 FIP, 2.77 xFIP, 3.14 SIERA), one would think that Gray was enjoying a breakout season.  He owns a 11.6 K/9 and a 4.1 K/BB rate, and while his hard contact percentage is up, the quality of that contact translates to only a .301 xwOBA.  His xOBA is .342, however, and Gray has been similarly snake-bitten by a whopping .386 BABIP as well as a low 63.1% strand rate.

The Rockies are hoping Gray will be back sometime in July, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the “team views this as a reset” in the midst of what surely must be a frustrating stretch for the 26-year-old.  Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman are the likeliest Triple-A candidates to fill Gray’s place in the short term, with rookies Sam Howard and Harrison Musgrave also longer shot options.

2018 Amateur Draft Signings: 6/26/18

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s most notable signings from the first few rounds of the draft.  Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only) …

  • Marlins second-round pick Osiris Johnson has agreed to take the exact value assigned to the 53rd overall choice, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. Johnson, a shortstop from California, will forego his commitment to Cal State Fullerton for a $1,318,500 bonus. A consensus top-100 talent, he received his highest ranking from Law, who placed the youngster 58th on his board. A cousin of both Jimmy Rollins and Tony Tarasco, Johnson is viewed as a future infielder but isn’t seen as being particularly likely to remain at short for the long haul. Still, he is said to possess great hands with excellent bat speed and projectable power at the plate. The Fish have also agreed to a just-over-slot ($645K) deal with third-rounder Tristan Pompey, per Callis (on Twitter), which would give the team agreements with all of its selections from the first ten rounds.
  • The Rockies have agreed to a below-slot bonus with 76th overall selection Mitchell Kilkenny, Callis also tweets. That choice, a supplemental second-round pick that the Colorado organization received as compensation when Greg Holland departed via free agency, came with a $787,200 allocation. After his physical showed that he’d require Tommy John surgery, though, the Texas A&M righty will settle with the Rox for $550K. MLB.com had the highest grade (83rd) on Kilkenny among outlets, calling him a high-floor hurler with a good chance of making it into a MLB rotation. Having just undergone a TJ procedure, of course, Kilkenny will get a delayed start to his professional career and may not even be able to join a Rockies affiliate until the 2020 campaign. With this move, the Colorado organization has also completed its dealmaking with the eleven players it picked in the first ten rounds of the draft.

Injury Notes: Darvish, Shaw, A’s, Brewers, Bucs

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Right-hander Yu Darvish, out since May 23 with triceps tendinitis, is nearing a return to the Cubs’ rotation. Darvish will make a Single-A rehab start Monday and could head back to the majors thereafter, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. It’s not yet clear whether he’d bounce Mike Montgomery from the team’s rotation, as the lefty has performed well as a starter in Darvish’s absence and caught the attention of the Cubs’ front office in the process. Should Chicago choose to keep Montgomery and the walk-happy Tyler Chatwood in starting roles, it could go to a six-man rotation upon Darvish’s return.

More injury updates from around the majors:

  • The Rockies announced that they’ve placed reliever Bryan Shaw on the 10-day disabled list with a right calf strain and recalled righty Yency Almonte from Triple-A Albuquerque. The DL placement continues a season to forget for Shaw, who’s in the first of a three-year, $27MM deal. Shaw has disappointed with his new club thus far, having recorded a 7.57 ERA with career-worst walk and home run rates (5.05 BB/9, 2.02 HR/9) over 35 2/3 innings.
  • Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman, on the 10-day DL since June 15, won’t come back when first eligible, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Chapman landed on the shelf with a right thumb injury, though team doctors now believe the problem area is just above his wrist, according to Slusser. He may need a cortisone shot as a result, and might not return until the A’s next homestand (June 29 to July 4). Meanwhile, the A’s are set to activate reliever Ryan Buchter from the 10-day DL on Monday, Slusser adds. The offseason trade acquisition has been dealing with a left shoulder strain and hasn’t pitched for the A’s since April 25.
  • The Brewers will likely go without reliever Matt Albers until after the All-Star break, manager Craig Counsell told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters Sunday. Albers is “going in the right direction,” though, Counsell noted. The 35-year-old has been out for just under two weeks with right shoulder soreness. Albers, whom the Brewers signed to a two-year, $5MM guarantee over the winter, has pitched to a 3.53 ERA with 7.85 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate in 28 2/3 innings.
  • The Pirates have sent reliever Michael Feliz to the 10-day DL with right shoulder inflammation and recalled righty Clay Holmes from Triple-A Indianapolis, the team announced. The hard-throwing Feliz has endured a rough season in his first year with the Pirates, who acquired him from Astros as part of the teams’ Gerrit Cole trade over the winter. Feliz ranks second among Pirates relievers in innings pitched (32 2/3) and has struck out 10.74 hitters per nine, but a high walk rate (4.41 BB/9) and a low grounder percentage (30.7) have helped lead to a 5.51 ERA.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/20/18

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Previously reported near-agreements for Angels first-rounder Jordyn Adams and Cubs first-rounder Nico Hoerner have now become official, according to a pair of reports from Jim Callis of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sport (Twitter links). Adams will take home a $4.1MM bonus that tops his slot value by roughly $700K, while Hoerner receives the full-slot value of $2.724MM, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney said was likely when reporting the deal to be close.

Here’s an update on some notable signings from the top few rounds of the draft (rankings referenced are courtesy of Fangraphs, MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law; Fangraphs and MLB.com scouting reports are available to the public free of charge, while the others require subscriptions):

  • The Indians have signed supplemental first-rounder Lenny Torres, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Callis adds that he’ll receive a $1.35MM signing bonus, which falls just under $400K shy of his overall slot value at No. 41 overall. Fangraphs (39) and Law (40) ranked Torres most aggressively, praising a fastball that touches 97 mph but both also acknowledging that his current lack of command and his size lead to some risk that he’s bullpen-bound and won’t last as a starter. Fangraphs notes that he’s flashed an above-average to plus changeup in the past, while Law writes that he could eventually have an above-average curve as well. He’d been committed to St. John’s but will enter pro ball instead.
  • Callis also tweets that the Rockies agreed to terms on a $2MM bonus with supplemental pick Grant Lavigne. That comes in $296K above his $1.704MM slot value at No. 42 overall. A high school first baseman out of New Hampshire, Lavigne is listed at 6’4″ and 230 pounds already at the age of 18. Law ranked him 60th and praised his feel to hit and plus raw power, wondering if he’d have gone higher in the draft had he played in warmer weather where he’d face better competition. Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo write in their report that he’s a better runner than would be expected, though his speed is still a bit below average.
  • The Blue Jays announced that they’ve signed second-rounder Griffin Conine, and Callis adds that he’ll receive the full $1.35MM slot value of his No. 52 overall selection. Somewhat remarkably, Conine ranked 50th on all of the pre-draft rankings listed in the intro above. The son of former Major League All-Star Jeff Conine, Griffin starred as an outfielder at Duke, where he hit .286/.410/.608 with 18 homers, 15 doubles and a pair of triples and walked in 15.5 percent of his 278 plate appearances. Conine had first-round potential (top 10, per Law) heading into the season but struck out at the worst rate of his college career (26.6 percent) and dropped accordingly. He’s limited to the outfield corners and has plenty of raw power and a strong arm but concerns about his hit tool.

Rockies To Re-Sign Jairo Diaz

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The Rockies have agreed to re-sign reliever Jairo Diaz to a minors deal, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (via Twitter). Diaz will head back to the team’s top affiliate.

A 27-year-old righty, Diaz has been beset with arm troubles for some time now. Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2016 and he has experienced forearm problems at the outset of the current campaign. As a result, he has turned in just thirty appearances at any level since the conclusion of the 2015 season.

The Rox designated and released Diaz recently, but he evidently did not find better opportunities elsewhere and decided to return on a new contract. When healthy, Diaz boasts an upper-nineties heater and typically generates quite a few groundballs, so he could be an intriguing asset for the Colorado organization if he’s able to get back on track.

Mets Notes: Cespedes, Astros, Bruce

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The latest out of Citi Field…

  • The Mets faced a tough challenge from the Astros in the race to sign Yoenis Cespedes in the 2016-17 offseason, John Harper of the New York Daily News reports.  The Astros reportedly made Cespedes a similarly-sized offer (four years, $110MM) that the outfielder was “strongly considering,” according to one Mets source.  Another Mets-connected person tells Harper that Cespedes’ “considerations were [to play for a] contender, money, no-trade clause, and [to] train in Florida near his ranch,” and Houston checked off all of those boxes but was unwilling to provide full no-trade protection.  Mets GM Sandy Alderson was also wary about the no-trade clause, yet ultimately agreed to add it to the deal in order to get Cespedes back in the fold.  That “separator” in talks, as another Mets source described it, may have also been necessary to retain Cespedes given his issues with former manager Terry Collins, which Harper relates at length.  It’s safe to assume that the Astros don’t harbor much regret about missing on Cespedes, as they instead spread out their money to acquire multiple players (Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran) that helped them win the World Series, while Cespedes has been hampered by injuries since re-signing with New York.
  • Earlier this week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post floated a hypothetical trade of struggling players, with the Mets sending Jay Bruce to the Rockies in exchange for Bryan Shaw.  There isn’t any indication that either team is considering such a deal, and a trade of either player would be pretty surprising since both Bruce and Shaw just signed three-year free agent contracts last winter.  Sherman’s argument, however, is that this trade would solve some problems on both rosters — Colorado would get a veteran bat who could help in the corner outfield or at first base, while the Mets would add a long-term relief piece and clear up some of their own cluttered first base/corner outfield situation.  Shaw could also be helped by a reunion with Mickey Callaway, his former pitching coach in Cleveland.
  • Speaking of Bruce, the veteran hasn’t played in the last three games due to some lingering injuries in his back, hip, and foot.  Newsday’s Tim Healey writes that Bruce had two days fully off before being available off the bench on Saturday, though he wasn’t used.  These minor injuries aside, Bruce said that he has felt healthy this season, which makes his mediocre numbers (.216/.297/.327 with three homers in 232 PA) all the more frustrating.  “I feel so close. I hit balls at people. Fly out, just miss the ball. Stuff you really can’t control,” Bruce said.  Advanced metrics partially bear out Bruce’s assessment — he only has a .263 BABIP, and his .344 xwOBA is far beyond his actual .275 wOBA.  His 32.7% hard-hit ball rate, however, is below his career average and his .111 Isolated Power (ISO) total is by far the lowest of his career.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/14/18

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Twins announced that infielder Gregorio Petit has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Rochester after being designated for assignment earlier this week. The 33-year-old stuck with the Twins for a few weeks as a seldom-used bench piece but lost his roster spot when Minnesota brought right-hander Matt Belisle back to the organization on a big league contract Tuesday. Petit appeared in a dozen games for Minnesota but made just 30 plate appearances, hitting .308/.400/.308. He’s a career .253/.298/.350 hitter in 483 MLB plate appearances and a .267/.317/.370 hitter in parts of 11 Triple-A seasons.

Earlier Moves

  • Catcher Jose Lobaton cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Mets and has been sent outright to Triple-A Las Vegas, as noted on the team’s transactions page. It’s the second time that the veteran Lobaton has been designated and subsequently outrighted by the Mets in 2018. While he has the option of rejecting the option of rejecting the assignment in favor of free agency, he accepted his previous assignment and is already once again listed on the team’s roster in Triple-A. Lobaton, 33, has hit just .152/.264/.239 in 53 plate appearances for the Mets thus far in 2018, continuing his struggles from the 2017 season with the Nats. The switch-hitter is a career .271/.352/.419 hitter in Triple-A, however.
  • Right-hander Jairo Diaz was released by the Rockies following his recent DFA, as reflected on the team’s transactions page. The 27-year-old Diaz hasn’t pitched much since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016, struggling through 25 innings between MLB and the minors last season and through just 3 2/3 innings in Triple-A so far in 2018. Diaz has averaged better than 97 mph on his fastball (including in a short MLB stint last year, post-surgery) and did notch a 2.37 ERA and an 18-to-6 K/BB ratio with a 56.6 percent ground-ball rate in 19 innings with the Rox back in 2015. He’d been on the DL due to forearm tightness since mid-April at the time of his DFA, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (Twitter link).
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