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Rockies Interested In J.D. Martinez

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The Rockies have interest in Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  Colorado joins an ever-growing list of teams connected to the slugger, including the Royals, Cardinals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks, plus likely more clubs whose interest has yet to be revealed.

As Morosi notes, Martinez is particularly valuable in the NL West as a right-handed bat to counter the division’s many good southpaws, which explains why the D’Backs, Dodgers and Rox have checked in on the outfielder.  Martinez, of course, is a dangerous bat anywhere — he carries a .306/.384/.622 slash line and 15 homers over 224 plate appearances this season, putting him on pace for his best year since breaking out as one of the game’s top hitters in 2014.  Martinez will be a free agent this winter, though even as a rental player, the Tigers stand to obtain a big return if and when they trade the 29-year-old.

The Rockies seem like an odd trade match at first given their seeming surplus of corner outfield options: Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond (just activated from the DL today), Gerardo Parra, rookie Raimel Tapia and possibly David Dahl as a late-season reinforcement off the disabled list.  CarGo, however, simply hasn’t been himself this year, hitting just .215/.294/.330 with six home runs over 306 PA.  Desmond and Parra have both missed time due to injury, and could be needed at first base since Mark Reynolds’ bat has drastically cooled off over the last month.  Tapia and Dahl, meanwhile, would seemingly fit the model of talented young outfield prospects that could go to Detroit in a Martinez trade; the Tigers have reportedly had interest in the likes of the Astros’ Derek Fisher and the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo in recent months.

NL News & Rumors: Braves, Brewers, Phillies, Rockies

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The Braves, on the hunt for starting pitching, sent a top scout to Detroit this weekend to watch Tigers right-handers Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (on Twitter). Neither Verlander nor Fulmer seems like a realistic trade candidate, however. The Tigers reportedly want a noteworthy haul for Verlander, even though he’s 34, in the throes of a down season and still owed nearly $70MM through 2019. Verlander also has a full no-trade clause, so he could veto a deal even if the Braves do present an offer to the Tigers’ liking. Unlike Verlander, the 24-year-old Fulmer is both cheap and in his prime. Detroit would justifiably demand a ransom in return, then, but there’s no indication it’s interested in parting with him.

More from the National League:

  • Realistically, no one would have expected the Brewers to hold a 5.5-game advantage in the NL Central this late in the season, which could lead to an agonizing deadline for the team’s decision-makers, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. The Brewers, who were in on now-Cub Jose Quintana before the White Sox traded him Thursday and have interest in the Athletics’ Sonny Gray, must weigh whether to make a bold strike that eats into their farm system or take a more conservative approach. General manager David Stearns doesn’t seem eager to part with a prospect haul, telling Haudricourt: “We’ve worked very hard to build our system and organization as a whole where the level of young talent we have is a good place to be. I don’t see us, whether it’s this year or any year going forward, moving from that strategy.” Nevertheless, Haudricourt points to Gray’s team control, his connection to Milwaukee pitching coach Derek Johnson (who coached Gray at Vanderbilt) and the Brewers’ rotation questions as reasons why acquiring him would make sense.
  • Speaking of the Brewers, their success has come without having left fielder Ryan Braun at full strength, and his health will continue to be an issue for the rest of the season. Manager Craig Counsell said Saturday (via the Associated Press) that the Brewers will evaluate Braun daily through the end of the year, given that a strained right calf has hampered him for a while and forced him to the disabled list twice. While the 33-year-old has once again been a quality contributor to Milwaukee’s offense, having hit .260/.343/.553 across 169 plate appearances, Counsell believes there’s enough talent on hand to weather Braun’s issues. “We certainly want a healthy Ryan Braun, but we’ve had success with this team because of depth and we’ll continue to rely on that if we have to,” Counsell said.
  • Phillies outfielder/infielder and trade candidate Howie Kendrick has been out this month with an injured left hamstring, and a return doesn’t seem imminent. Kendrick will join the Phillies in Miami on Monday, but only so the team can evaluate him to see if he’s healthy enough to embark on a rehab assignment, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
  • Currently in possession of a wild-card spot, the Rockies will temporarily remove one of the best starters from their rotation in order to preserve his arm, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Rookie left-hander Kyle Freeland, who’s top two among Rockies starters in innings (110 1/3), ERA (3.67) and ground-ball rate (55 percent), is likely to head to the bullpen and could then log some time in the team’s Triple-A rotation before resuming his starting role in Colorado. Another rookie, righty Antonio Senzatela, looks primed to take Freeland’s place in the meantime. Freeland threw three shutout, no-hit frames in relief Saturday, when the Rockies lost starter Tyler Chatwood to an undisclosed injury in the first inning, per Saunders.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade

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After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…

  • The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
  • The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
  • While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
  • The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
  • Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
  • Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
  • Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.

Trade Chatter: Rangers, Rockies, Ramos, Mariners, Alonso, Cards

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With 19 days until the non-waiver trade deadline, the Rangers are telling other clubs that they plan to hold, at the very least, and may yet act as buyers on the trade market, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Rangers, of course, are all but finished in the American League West as the Astros run away with the division. However, despite a 43-45 record, Texas is just three games back in the American League Wild Card race. Morosi notes that the defending AL West champs open the season’s second half with a 10-game road trip that will likely prove pivotal in the Rangers’ determination of a course of action prior to the deadline.

More trade talk from around the game…

  • The Rockies are eyeing relief help as the deadline approaches, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag column. One name that Saunders has heard connected to the Rox is Marlins closer AJ Ramos. The Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer reported recently that the Fish are scouting a number of rival farm systems in preparation to trade some veteran assets before the deadline, specifically naming the Rockies as a system of interest. It seems unlikely that Ramos would usurp Greg Holland as manager Bud Black’s closer, but he’d give the Rox an arm with huge strikeout potential that can be controlled through next season. And, with Holland all but certain to turn down his player option (barring an injury), Ramos would give the Rockies an option in the ninth inning in 2018. Ramos is earning $6.55MM this year and is controllable for one more season via arbitration.
  • Morosi also reports that the Mariners would like to add some pitching at this year’s trade deadline, but they’re not keen on adding any rentals (Twitter links). Seattle finished the first half poorly, and the notion of sacrificing prospects for a two-month rental and a chance at a one-game playoff is off-putting to the majority of teams around the league. Even if the Mariners’ slide continues, Morosi adds that the team has no plans to move slugger Nelson Cruz, who even at 37 years of age continues to be among the game’s most productive bats. Cruz is hitting .292/.372/.520 and is earning $14.25MM this year and next — the final two seasons of a four-year, $57MM pact inked prior to the 2015 campaign.
  • The Athletics have made it known to other teams that first baseman Yonder Alonso is available in trades “right now,” writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Alonso’s availability isn’t exactly a new development, as he’s been among the most oft-speculated and reported trade candidates for most of the season’s first half. However, the A’s and Alonso’s camp were also said to be exploring talk of a possible extension. While Olney doesn’t mention the extension possibility one way or another, his newest report certainly doesn’t do much to inspire confidence that the two sides will agree to a deal. In addition to the oft-suggested Yankees fit, Olney speculatively lists the Royals as a possibility.
  • The Cardinals are still looking into adding a middle-of-the-order bat and will continue to do so up through the deadline, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote in a recent chat with readers. The Cards expect that type of pursuit to perhaps run right up to the deadline, however. Goold notes that he’s been told recently that St. Louis isn’t keen on adding rental bats (e.g. J.D. Martinez) but could rethink that mentality and take a late shot at a rental if their pursuits of longer-term assets don’t prove fruitful over the next couple of weeks.

Marlins Notes: Trade Targets, Volquez, Sale Progress

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Here’s the latest out of Miami:

  • With the team set to be sold at some point in the near future, the Marlins appear to be lining up for some significant moves at the deadline. As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports, the Fish appear to be targeting a few organizations in particular as they look to shop their biggest contracts. Marlins scouts are taking a hard look at the systems of the Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Rockies, and Cubs, per the report. Whether that’s based upon demand coming from those organizations or instead Miami’s own interest in certain prospects isn’t entirely clear; obviously, plenty of other teams will likely end up engaging with the Marlins in what is shaping up to be an interesting deadline period.
  • Miami is not concerned about righty Edinson Volquez, Spencer also notes. Though he experienced left-knee discomfort in his most recent start, skipper Don Mattingly suggested the veteran will be ready to go after the All-Star break. He could well be one of the players dangled in trade talks over the next few weeks.
  • The less-than-straightforward Marlins sale process remains in flux as the organization prepares to host the All-Star Game. Bidding groups led by Tagg Romney, on the one hand, and Derek Jeter, on the other, have each run into issues, according to a report from Claire Atinson, Ken Davidoff, and Josh Kosman of the New York Post. In fact, the Romney group may even have pulled out of the process altogether, per the report. Jeter’s group, meanwhile, no longer has the backing of one key investor. That could place a third bidder, Jorge Mas, in position to make a deal. But it’s also possible that Jeter could try to “convince MLB to push back a decision date … possibly to the end of the season in October,” sources tell the Post.
  • Mas has attempted to get the Marlins to agree to an exclusive negotiating window, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, but that has yet to occur. Still, the report suggests, the process could be only weeks away from completion. While Mas is said to be in the driver’s seat, Heyman hears that the Romney-led group may still be involved.

Health Notes: Bettis, Tomas, Duke, Rodriguez, Astros, Davis

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Rockies righty Chad Bettis has faced live hitters as he readies for a rehab assignment, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. While he’s going to need a long build-up, the hope is that Bettis could make it back to the majors at some point in August. That’s great news for the Rox, who have plenty of options but relatively few sure things in the rotation. Bettis, of course, is returning from testicular cancer, which required not only surgery but also chemotherapy. If he can return to being the steady presence he was before hitting the DL, it could go a long way to helping the club maintain its current course for the postseason. (Adding him back to the rotation might also allow the team to bump another young arm into the bullpen.)

Here are some more health notes from around the game:

  • Already out for a month due to groin issues, Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas has now been re-diagnosed, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweets. While the injury had initially been called tendinitis, it is now said to be a mild strain. It’s not clear whether that impacts his timeline at all; Tomas has yet to undertake a rehab assignment.
  • Cardinals southpaw Zach Duke is stepping up to the High-A level to begin his rehab assignment in earnest, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. The veteran southpaw, who is working back from Tommy John surgery, now seems on track to provide a potentially significant boost to the Cards — who are now in the thick of things in a middling NL Central.
  • Speaking of earlier-than-expected returns, the Braves could welcome back infielder Sean Rodriguez by the end of the month, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). It seemed he could miss the entire season after significant offseason shoulder surgery, but evidently Rodriguez has responded quite well to treatment. Rodriguez landed in Atlanta on a two-year, $11.5MM deal but suffered the injury in a devastating offseason car accident. He could provide a strong boost to Atlanta down the stretch, with his role dependent upon the team’s experiment of utilizing Freddie Freeman at third base as well as their ultimate deadline moves — which could still conceivably include trades of either second baseman Brandon Phillips or first baseman Matt Adams.
  • The Astros have successfully weathered a slew of rotation injuries of late; needless to say, though, the team will be glad to welcome back its missing arms. Righty Charlie Morton will be activated to start on Friday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, and he’ll be interesting to watch upon his return. Morton has a solid 4.06 ERA and even better peripherals, though it remains to be seen whether Houston will feel comfortable relying on him (among others) for a presumptive postseason staff. Fellow righty Collin McHugh is also making forward progress; Kaplan notes he’ll make a second rehab outing at Double-A. Meanwhile, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, top lefty Dallas Keuchel may be closing in on his own rehab assignment.
  • Also nearing a rehab stint is Orioles first baseman Chris Davis. As Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes, Davis says his injured oblique is cooperating as he begins ramping up baseball activities. He’s slated for a minor-league assignment over the All-Star break; so long as he progresses, he might be back to the big leagues shortly thereafter.

Injury Notes: Heyward, Sabathia, Warren, Shoemaker, E-Rod, Dahl

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The latest on some DL situations around the league…

  • The Cubs have activated Jason Heyward from the 10-day DL.  Infielder Jeimer Candelario and righty Felix Pena were optioned to Triple-A, while left-hander Jack Leathersich was called up in corresponding moves.  Heyward has missed two weeks due to a left hand abrasion, his second DL stint of the season after missing time due to a sprained finger in May.  The injuries haven’t helped Heyward’s goal of regaining his former offensive consistency, as the outfielder has a .258/.315/.399 slash line over 217 PA this season.  [Updated Cubs depth chart at Roster Resource]
  • The Yankees have activated C.C. Sabathia and Adam Warren from the disabled list, and optioned right-handers Domingo German and Bryan Mitchell to Triple-A in corresponding moves.  Sabathia will start today’s game against the Blue Jays, his first outing since hitting the DL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain in mid-June.  The veteran southpaw is looking to continue a strong campaign that has seen him post a 3.46 ERA over 75 1/3 innings.  Warren was also enjoying a very good season (2.23 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate) in 32 1/3 IP out of New York’s bullpen before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation for the last three weeks.
  • Matt Shoemaker is scheduled for a minor league rehab start today, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.  The righty will need at least one more rehab game after today before returning to the Angels roster.  Shoemaker went on the DL with forearm tightness in mid-June, though that ominous-sounding injury was related to his extensor muscle, and an MRI revealed no structural damage.  Shoemaker has a 4.52 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate and 8.0 K/9 over 77 2/3 IP for the Angels this year and he has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, with 15 home runs allowed.
  • The Red Sox will won’t bring Eduardo Rodriguez back to the rotation before the All-Star break, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal tweets.  Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since June 1 due to a partial right kneecap dislocation, the latest in a series of knee injuries the left-handed has dealt with in his young career.  The Sox could give Rodriguez another rehab start in the minors or activate him from the DL for use as a reliever next weekend, Britton writes.
  • David Dahl has been pain-free for over a month, the Rockies outfielder tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post as Dahl continues to recover from a stress fracture in his ribcage.  There isn’t yet a timetable for a rehab assignment or Dahl’s return to Colorado’s roster, and it is likely both he and the team want to be as certain as possible given the lingering nature of the injury, which has plagued Dahl since very early in Spring Training.

Rockies Activate Carlos Gonzalez, Place Ian Desmond On 10-Day DL

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The Rockies have activated outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from his DL stint, but cleared a roster spot by sending outfielder/first baseman Ian Desmond out on his own. As Nick Groke of the Denver Post tweets, Desmond is dealing with a calf strain.

It seems an MRI did not bring an optimistic enough outlook to allow Desmond to avoid at least a ten-day hiatus. The significance of the injury isn’t yet known, however.

Desmond opened the year on the DL and is now headed back. But it is what happened in-between that has caused concern. The 31-year-old carries only a .283/.321/.388 batting line through 236 trips to the plate, which is especially meager when adjusted for the advantage of playing at Coors Field.

While it hurts to see the organization’s $70MM free-agent signee producing so little, Colorado has motored along just fine. Mark Reynolds has performed well beyond expectations at first base, and Raimel Tapia has emerged as another useful outfield option. Even after a recent rough patch, the Rox sit in excellent position to take a Wild Card spot — though getting a healthy and effective Desmond would certainly represent an important element of locking up a postseason berth.

2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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It’s been more than a month since we last looked in on the crop of eight players that can opt out of their current contracts and reenter the free-agent market following the 2017 campaign. With more than half the season in the books, a few cases look relatively certain, but there are plenty of questions surrounding several such players…

[Related: 2018 Vesting Options Update]

  • Greg Holland, RP, Rockies: Holland’s $10MM mutual option became a $15MM player option when he finished his 30th game of the season for the Rox a little more than a week ago. His recent brush with wildness is of mild concern, but Holland has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA with 11.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 39.7 percent ground-ball rate. In a year when homers are being hit more than ever and he’s tackling Coors Field for the first time, Holland has managed to limit opponents to just one big fly in 30 1/3 innings. So long as his arm holds up for the remainder of the season — no sure thing considering this is his first year back from 2015 Tommy John surgery — he’ll 100 percent turn down that player option in search of a huge multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly look to vault Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM pact and could seek a five-year deal.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants: Cueto is still a workhorse, by today’s standards, as he’s on pace to reach 200 innings for the fourth straight year if he can make 33 starts. He’s logged a 3.97 ERA in eight starts since we last looked at the opt-out crop, though he continues to be abnormally homer prone (though that’s a league-wide trend, as homers are up across the board). Cueto has a 4.26 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 40BB/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate. If he can rediscover his pinpoint control and/or his grounder rate from previous years (1.8 BB/9, 50.2 GB% in 2016), he could make this an easier decision come October. Cueto still ranks third on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman has reported that he’s still planning to opt out of the remaining four years and $84MM on his deal. I think there’s a decent chance he once again hits the open market in search of a five-year deal in the Jordan Zimmermann mold.
  • Welington Castillo, C, Orioles: Castillo’s bat has seen a precipitous decline in effectiveness since our mid-May check-in on opt-out clauses, as he’s batted .205/.250/.349 in 88 plate appearances since that time. He perhaps deserves somewhat of a pass, given the cringe-inducing groin injury he suffered on an ill-placed foul ball deflection that landed him on the DL for 10 days in late May/early June. His overall .272/.307/.439 slash is solid for a catcher, and he’s thrown out a ridiculous 48 percent of opposing stolen base attempts (12-for-25). Framing will probably never be his strong suit, but he’s made some incremental improvements in recent years (though he still grades out below average). With a fairly small one-year, $7MM player option on his deal, it’s certainly plausible that Castillo hits free agency this winter and scores a better payday than that option would afford.
  • Justin Upton, LF, Tigers: I understand the doubt around the possibility of Upton turning away an extra four years and $88.5MM to once again test free agency this winter; he’s 30 years old with questionable defensive value and a strikeout that has soared since his peak year in Arizona. Corner-limited sluggers also fared quite poorly on last year’s market, for the most part. Nonetheless, Upton is having his best offensive season since 2014 and is hitting .267/.351/.500 with 15 homers. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break, he’s slashing .264/.344/.537 with 37 bombs in 575 plate appearances. He’d need a big finish to be confident enough to top four years and $88MM, but that’s the same mark Hanley Ramirez signed for in Boston when he was a year older. If Upton’s camp feels that there’s a chance to approach the $110MM that Yoenis Cespedes received on a four-year pact last winter (again, when he was a year older than Upton), Upton’s reps could elect to search elsewhere. He can’t receive a qualifying offer this time around.
  • Matt Wieters, C, Nationals: Wieters is hitting .205/.224/.328 through 125 plate appearances since the last time we checked in on this group. Overall, he’s batting .244/.293/.384 with a substandard 22 percent caught-stealing rate and the worst framing marks of his career. It’s possible that the one year, $10.5MM player option on his contract is still beatable in a thin market for catching this coming winter, but opting into the deal and remaining with a competitive team is going to look pretty appealing if he can’t get his bat going once again.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees: Tanaka has picked a poor time to have the worst season of his career, though he’s showing signs of life on the mound. He’s tossed 14 innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio and a huge ground-ball rate in his past two starts and also gone without a home run allowed in that brief stretch. Tanaka is still sitting on a 5.56 ERA with an awful 2.1 HR/9 mark, but he’s averaging 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. xFIP is much more favorable than his ERA at 3.87, and SIERA agrees with a 3.91 mark. Three of his past four starts have been brilliant, and if he can continue that momentum he could still do better than the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract and hit the open market in search of a larger deal. Age is on his side as well. He’ll turn just 29 this winter.
  • Ian Kennedy, SP, Royals: The 32-year-old Kennedy’s walk and strikeout rates have gone in the wrong direction by a substantial amount this season, and he’s more homer-prone than ever (1.9 HR/9). Starting pitching is almost always in heavy demand on the free-agent market (as Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal and opt-out clause illustrate), but he’s sporting a 4.72 ERA with FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all well north of 5.00. Barring a miraculous turnaround, he’s not topping the remaining three years and $49MM on his deal as a free agent this winter, so expect him to stay in Kansas City.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: Marlins: Chen hasn’t thrown a single pitch since we last checked in on May 22, as he continues to attempt to work his way back from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. With three years and $52MM remaining on his contract, he’s a lock to forgo his opt-out provision.

Quick Hits: HRs, Velocity, Rockies, A’s

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Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis underwent chemotherapy earlier this year to treat testicular cancer, but it doesn’t look as if that’s going to stop him from taking the mound in 2017. In terrific news, the 28-year-old has progressed enough in his recovery that he’s on pace to begin a minor league rehab assignment during the upcoming All-Star break, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “It’s a really good feeling to watch this unfold,” said manager Bud Black, whose playoff-contending team could use more rotation depth. Bettis would provide that, having served as a solid starter for the Rockies since joining their rotation on a full-time basis in 2015.

More from around the game:

  • With home runs having spiked over the past couple seasons, Ben Lindbergh and Mitchel Lichtman of The Ringer concluded earlier this month that Major League Baseball is playing with a juiced ball. However, MLB insists that’s not the case. On Saturday, the league sent a memo to all 30 teams declaring that “there is no evidence that the composition of the ball has changed in any way,” reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The ball’s size, weight, COR (bounciness), seam height and circumference are tested at least three times a year at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell Baseball Research Center, according to the league. The exact cause for the HR increase is up for debate, but an all-time high 13.7 percent of fly balls have cleared fences this year. That’s up from 12.8 percent last season, which was a record at the time.
  • Given the high frequency of pitcher injuries, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson believes teams will soon begin valuing durability over velocity, as Roger Rubin of Newsday writes. “I think what you’ll find over the next several years is clubs will be more interested in ‘pack horses’ instead of ‘thoroughbreds’ because it’s about being able to go out . . . and get 30 starts,” Alderson said Friday. There’s an emphasis on velocity at all levels, but Alderson noted that throwing harder “often leads to injury,” adding, “The things that might be the difference between good pitching and great pitching may also be the difference between health and an injury.”
  • Jesse Hahn is tied for second among Athletics in starts (13), yet the team demoted him to Triple-A on Sunday. In response, Hahn told reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle): “It’s a little frustrating. I thought I’d been having a really good season up until these last two starts. I don’t want to say it’s unfair because I understand it’s a business thing, but I don’t like that I was kind of judged off of two starts there.” Hahn’s ERA climbed from 3.56 to 5.30 thanks to those outings, both of which came against the formidable Astros. They racked up 15 earned runs over just four innings against Hahn. His trip to the minors will lead to more starts for rookie righty Paul Blackburn, whom the A’s acquired from the Mariners over the winter for Danny Valencia. Blackburn, 23, made his major league debut Saturday and held the Braves to three hits, a walk and an unearned run across six frames.
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