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Carlos Correa Meets With Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch

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Longtime Astros shortstop Carlos Correa — MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent — was spotted having breakfast with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch at a Houston cafe on Thursday morning (photo taken by Astros blogger Zach Hablinski). Hinch was, of course, Correa’s manager in Houston from 2015 to 2019.

It’d be dangerous to read too much into the meeting. Beyond his previous relationship with Hinch, Correa is widely considered the top free agent this winter and is likely to meet with quite a few teams. Still, it’s easy to draw the connection between the two-time All-Star and the club. The Tigers have made it very clear they intend to open their pocketbook this winter, and Correa makes lots of sense for a club with money to spend and a desire to push themselves into a contention window. Indeed, the Tigers, who have already added starter Eduardo Rodriguez (the biggest free agent signing of the winter so far) and catcher Tucker Barnhart, are widely expected to be among the most active teams.

Were Correa to make his way to Detroit, he’d less upgrade than revolutionize the Tigers’ outlook at the position. The position was something of a black hole for the club in 2021; Niko Goodrum, Zack Short, and Harold Castro each saw significant time, but none came particularly close to even league-average production. Each of the three (particularly Goodrum) has enough positional versatility to provide some value, but none are likely to be in the Tigers’ long-term plans. Combined with the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Barnhart, adding Correa wouldn’t necessarily vault the Tigers (who finished eight games below .500 in 2021) into contention, but he’d clearly make a team with a lot of promising young starting pitching better for years to come.

Very much in the prime of his career as he enters his age-27 season, Correa is coming off a platform year that saw him slash .279/.366/.485 (not to mention an astounding 20 Defensive Runs Saved) that more or less matches his career .277/.356/.481 line. Given both his offensive pedigree and his stellar glovework at a premium position he’ll likely be able to play for years to come, Correa is a pretty safe bet to demand a contract that at least approaches the market-setting 10-year, $341MM extension the Mets gave Francisco Lindor just ahead of this year’s Opening Day. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately sign for $320MM over ten years.

Though any effect it will have on his market will be negligible, whichever team signs Correa will be required to forfeit a draft pick, as he received (and rejected) a qualifying offer from the Astros. Only the handful of teams shopping in free agency’s premium aisle will have a shot at getting his name on the dotted line, but the Tigers will hardly be alone in pursuing his signature. The Yankees — who’ve made clear they intend to replace Gleyber Torres at shortstop — have explicitly put to rest any speculation that they’d avoid Correa due to fan resentment stemming from his role in the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, and will have plenty of money to spend after dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2021. Beyond the Tigers and Yankees, MLBTR lists the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals as potential suitors in the Correa sweepstakes.

Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

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1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

Tigers Sign Eduardo Rodriguez

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The Tigers have made the biggest move of the 2021-22 offseason to date, formally announcing a five-year contract with free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez. The deal comes with a $77MM guarantee and can max out at $80MM, depending upon incentives.

The contract also affords Rodriguez the opportunity to opt out of the after the second season of the deal. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports that Rodriguez will earn a combined $28MM total from 2022-23 (Twitter link), meaning he’ll be faced with the decision of whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign. Rodríguez, who recently rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Rodríguez was seemingly in strong demand — his contract tops MLBTR’s projected five-year, $70MM estimate — drawing varying levels of interest from the Blue Jays, Angels and incumbent Red Sox. (Boston presented him with a multi-year offer in addition to the one-year qualifying offer.) Detroit will wind up topping the bidding, in the process installing a mid-rotation arm to its fairly young starting staff. That was known to be a priority for the Tigers’ front office, with general manager Al Avila frankly telling reporters after the season that adding an established starter “would be a necessity” for the club.

Detroit has also been tied to right-handers Jon Gray and Anthony DeSclafani, but it seems Rodríguez will be the Tigers’ big rotation add of the offseason. He’ll serve as the veteran anchor in a starting group that also includes young, highly-touted arms like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. With Spencer Turnbull expected to miss most or all of 2022 after undergoing July Tommy John surgery and Matthew Boyd looking likely to be non-tendered after undergoing a flexor procedure, it’s possible Detroit looks to add additional rotation depth later in the offseason. It’s unlikely any subsequent pick-up will be as impactful or as costly as Rodríguez, whose reported contract terms are quite strong.

Not only does he beat MLBTR’s projected guarantee by $7MM, he picks up the freedom to re-test the market two years from now. The southpaw won’t turn 29 years old until April 2022, meaning he’ll only be entering his age-31 campaign over the 2023-24 offseason. If he pitches well over the next couple seasons, it’s easy to envision Rodríguez opting out and hitting free agency in search of another long-term deal during a winter without any sort of uncertainty about the collective bargaining agreement. Yet the contract’s five-year guarantee also gives him solid stability to guard against injuries or underperformance that could crop up over the next two years.

That Rodríguez generated such strong interest and landed this kind of commitment from the Tigers serves as the latest reminder of teams’ changing methods of player evaluation. On the surface, Rodríguez wouldn’t appear to be coming off a particularly impressive season. He racked up 157 2/3 innings over 32 appearances (31 starts), but he did so with a career-worst 4.74 ERA. Not long ago, a five-year guarantee for a pitcher coming off a platform season in which his ERA was pushing 5.00 would’ve been inconceivable.

Teams are going far beyond ERA to evaluate pitchers in 2021, though, and Rodríguez’s underlying numbers were very strong. He struck out 27.4% of opponents this past season, a mark that’s nearly five percentage points above the league average for starters. Rodríguez’s 11.7% swinging strike rate is also a bit north of the 10.9% league mark, his fourth consecutive healthy season generating whiffs at greater than an 11% clip.

Rodríguez also has solid control, with his walk percentages typically hovering right around the league average. He doled out free passes at just a 7% rate in 2021, the lowest mark of his career. And despite pitching in one of the game’s most hitter-friendly home parks and divisions, he’s never really had issues preventing home runs.

More than anything, Rodríguez’s poor run prevention numbers in 2021 were the result of what happened when batters put the ball into play. Opponents had a .363 batting average on balls in play this past season, the second-highest mark among the 129 pitchers with 100+ frames. It’s not as if Rodríguez was simply getting battered night in and night out, though; opposing hitters’ 86.5 MPH average exit velocity was in the bottom ten percent leaguewide, while their 33.6% hard contact rate was in the worst fifteen percent.

Between his combination of swing-and-miss stuff, control and soft contact, Rodríguez fared quite well in the eyes of ERA estimators. While his actual ERA ranked 100th of that group of 129 hurlers, his FIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.64) checked in 21st and 24th, respectively. The Tigers are clearly of the belief that those metrics better reflect Rodríguez’s true talent level, with his ghastly 2021 run prevention attributable mostly to some combination of poor luck and a Boston defense that was the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs. In prior seasons, Rodríguez’s peripherals and ERA aligned a lot more closely, and he posted a cumulative 3.92 ERA/3.84 FIP between 2017-19.

A deeper dive into Rodríguez’s underlying numbers explains why the Tigers were willing to put forth this kind of financial outlay, but that’s not to say the move is without risk. Long-term investments in pitchers are inherently a gamble, considering the rate of pitcher injuries throughout the league. And while Rodríguez has been a durable workhorse for the bulk of his career, he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 after a scary bout with myocarditis (essentially inflammation of the heart) that arose from a case of COVID-19.

Rodríguez was open about the toll the disease took on his body, with doctors forbidding seemingly mundane tasks like walking his dog and playing video games for months — to say nothing of a strenuous activity like pitching (link via James Wagner of the New York Times). In that context, his return to the field in 2021 was remarkable, and he didn’t look worse for wear once he could return to the diamond. Detroit’s medical staff no doubt did due diligence on evaluating how likely that unfortunate circumstance would be of affecting Rodríguez over the long term.

It’s not yet clear precisely how Rodríguez will be paid over the coming seasons. If he’s paid a flat $15.4MM sum annually, that’d push Detroit’s 2022 payroll just above $125MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Non-tendering a few arbitration eligible players like Boyd, Niko Goodrum and Dustin Garneau could knock $10MM+ off that tally. The Tigers would still be far above the approximate $81MM payroll with which they entered the 2021 season (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts), but the franchise has spent nearly $200MM on players in seasons past.

The Tigers’ biggest spending days came during the tenure of late owner Mike Ilitch. The franchise drastically reduced payroll after he passed away and left primary control of the team to his son Christopher Ilitch. Detroit has been amidst a massive rebuild for essentially all of the latter’s ownership tenure, however, and Ilitch suggested in August that he’d be prepared to spend for “high-impact” players. Rodríguez certainly qualifies, and it’s generally expected the Tigers will be among the primary suitors in this offseason’s star-studded free agent shortstop class as well. Indeed, the Detroit front office has had at least cursory conversations with representatives for Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Trevor Story, among others.

As for the Red Sox, they’ll now have to replace a player who’s been a valuable rotation member for the past six seasons. Rodríguez broke in with Boston in 2015 and has been a fixture on the starting staff ever since (excluding his missed 2020 campaign). He was a key member of the Sox’s World Series-winning 2018 team, finished sixth in 2019 AL Cy Young Award voting and pitched in the postseason for Boston in each of 2017, 2018 and 2021.

Because the Red Sox made him a qualifying offer, they will pick up a compensatory pick in next summer’s amateur draft. As a team that neither received revenue sharing nor exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, Boston receives a pick after Competitive Balance Round B (typically in the 70-75 overall range).

The Tigers, meanwhile, will forfeit a pick as a penalty for signing away a qualified free agent. Detroit received revenue sharing in 2021, meaning they’ll only lose their third-highest draft choice next year. Were the Tigers to sign another qualified free agent this offseason, they’d surrender their fourth-highest pick as well.

Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic first reported that Rodríguez was nearing agreement on a multi-year deal with the Tigers. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported Rodríguez and the Tigers were in agreement on a five-year contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guarantee to land within the $77MM – $80MM range. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the presence of an opt-out clause. Heyman reported the guarantee to be $77MM, that Rodríguez’s opt-out possibility came after the 2023 season, and the possibility of incentives. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press pegged those possible incentives at $3MM and reported the presence of no-trade protection.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Tigers Interested In Extension With Tucker Barnhart

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The Tigers are interested in working out a contract extension with recently-acquired catcher Tucker Barnhart, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. While no deal is believed to be close, Murray relays that Detroit has at least met with the backstop’s representatives at the Ballengee Group.

Barnhart hasn’t yet been in the organization for two weeks, but the front office no doubt values his on-field production and ability to work with a young pitching staff. The Tigers struck to acquire Barnhart from the Reds just hours into the offseason, clearly identifying him as a prime trade target. He’ll play next season on a $7.75MM salary after Detroit exercised a club option, but he’s currently on track to hit free agency after the 2022 campaign.

The lefty-hitting Barnhart offers stable production on both sides of the ball. He’s coming off a .247/.317/.368 showing in 388 plate appearances with Cincinnati, numbers that align with his career work at the dish. That’s a bit below the league average offensive output at the position, but Barnhart makes up for that with strong defense. Statcast has rated him as an above-average pitch framer three years running after he struggled in that facet of the game early in his career. He’s also been average or better at throwing out attempted base-stealers, and the two-time Gold Glove award winner is generally well-regarded for the non-quantifiable aspects (handling a pitching staff, game calling, etc.) of the position.

Barnhart turns 31 years old in January, so any extension that pushes the Tigers’ window of control beyond next season would begin with his age-32 campaign. That’s a year younger than Travis d’Arnaud, who signed a two-year, $16MM extension (with a 2024 club option) with the Braves in August. Barnhart and d’Arnaud are coming off fairly similar 2021 showings, but the latter flashed far more offensive potential by hitting .321/.386/.533 in 2020.

That’s also true to a lesser extent of Jason Castro, who signed for one year and $6.85MM with the Angels over the 2019-20 offseason. That came on the heels of a fine .232/.332/.435 showing, but Castro was also one year older at the time than Barnhart will be in 2023. Speculatively speaking, a two-year deal around that AAV — which would guarantee Barnhart $13.7MM between 2023-24 — could make for a mutually agreeable framework.

Whether the parties will line up remains to be seen, but it seems there’s at least some interest on both sides in getting a longer term deal done. Either way, Barnhart will head into 2022 as the Tigers’ regular backstop, with Grayson Greiner and Eric Haase on hand as the likeliest backup options.

Latest On Eduardo Rodriguez

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Eduardo Rodriguez has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the $18.4MM qualifying offer extended to him by the Red Sox, but seems to be garnering a decent amount of attention from other clubs in the meantime. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Blue Jays, Angels and Tigers are interested in the lefty, who turns 29 in April.

The free agency of Rodriguez is an interesting case, as there’s a disconnect between his surface results and underlying numbers. In 2021, he had a strikeout rate of 27.4%, walk rate of 7.0% and groundball rate of 43.2%, all of those numbers being better than league average. Despite all of that, his ERA was a lofty 4.74. However, there seems to be quite a bit of bad luck in there, as his BABIP of .363 was much higher than his previous seasons, and all the advanced metrics seemed to think he deserved an ERA closer to the 3.50 range. MLBTR recently predicted that teams would see past that ERA, with Rodriguez getting a contract in the range of five years, $70MM, and this early interest seems to suggest that may be the case. Since extending that one-year qualifying offer, it has been revealed that the Red Sox added a multi-year offer to the table, and the interest of the Angels had been previously reported as well.

The fact that the Blue Jays are interested is hardly surprising, given their rotation situation. Fellow lefties Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have both entered free agency, leaving Toronto with a top-heavy rotation of Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah, with two spots available for options such as Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay. They are also very familiar with Rodriguez by virtue of his pitching for their division rivals over the entirety of his career thus far. The Blue Jays figure to consider all options to bolster their pitching staff, and have already been connected to the Justin Verlander showcase as well as making a strong offer to Andrew Heaney in the early days of this offseason.

As for the Tigers, they are looking to jump out of their rebuild and into contention for 2022. After an awful April in 2021 where they went 8-19, the club went 69-66 the rest of the way, which perhaps suggests they were a better club than their 77-85 record would indicate. It could be a very busy offseason for the Tigers, as Morosi also says they’re open to adding a shortstop and an outfielder. Their current rotation primarily consists of young and still-developing hurlers like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. They’ve likely lost Spencer Turnbull for 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and perhaps lost Matthew Boyd to flexor tendon surgery, creating the need for a veteran contributor like Rodriguez. Like the Blue Jays, they have also been frequently mentioned in rumors so far, being represented at the aforementioned Verlander showcase, as well as showing interest in Anthony DeSclafani and Jon Gray.

Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires

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The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.

That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.

To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.

Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.

Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.

There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.

Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.

To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of  one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.

Latest On Tigers’ Pursuit Of A Shortstop

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The Tigers continue to cast a wide net in free agency as they attempt to build off an encouraging 2021 season. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the team has already spoken to representatives for six of this winter’s premier middle infielders (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Chris Taylor). Morosi notes in a separate tweet that there’s some industry uncertainty over whether the Tigers would sign a player in the $250MM range, but that may have less to do with the team’s regard for the free agent shortstops and more to do with Detroit’s rotation needs.

It’s commonplace for teams to perform due diligence checks with agents in the offseason, even if the team isn’t optimistic about its chances to sign a certain player. Still, there is a perception among some in the sport that a few teams could be aggressive and move quickly in their pursuit of high-end free agents. The Tigers were among the teams listed as candidates to sign prominent players before the current CBA expires.

Detroit can afford to be opportunistic in the very literal sense that they have a ton of open payroll space. Even after extending Jonathan Schoop and their recent acquisition of Tucker Barnhart, the team has a projected 2022 payroll of just $93MM per Roster Resource. Non-tenders would shrink that estimate even further, and Detroit has a few prominent non-tender candidates (most notably Matthew Boyd) on large projected arb salaries. Given that the Tigers ran out a $200MM roster as recently as 2017, it’s easy to see the current payroll swelling in order to fling open the team’s competitive window.

Owing to this financial flexibility and a middle-infield that collectively posted a sub-.700 OPS last season, it’s understandable why the team would zero in on the solutions presented on the open market. Complicating this approach, however, is that Detroit has a very young rotation that posted middling run-prevention numbers last year.

The high-upside group of starters is likely to tap into some of its potential with more experience, but there’s validity in surrounding this pitching core with more proven commodities. After all, even if the team is hopeful each of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning take a step forward, certain rotation-wide stats like a 4.66 FIP (4.17 ERA) and a low 18.8% strikeout rate portray a staff that is very much headed for regression.

Those three youngsters, of course, were not the only members of this past season’s rotation. Both Boyd and Spencer Turnbull soaked up innings for Detroit in 2021, providing some of the best numbers the pitching staff had to offer. Unfortunately, both players saw their productive seasons end prematurely. Boyd pitched to a personal-best 3.89 ERA across 15 starts for the team before being shut down to undergo forearm surgery that looks likely to lead to him being let go.

The 29-year-old Turnbull was amidst an even stronger season. Through eight starts and 50 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA with superb command and ground-ball tendencies, to say nothing of the no-hitter he twirled against Seattle in May. News broke that Turnbull would require Tommy John surgery in July and, similar to Boyd, will likely miss the majority of the 2022 season. While the injury-created voids in next year’s rotation are far from ideal, one silver lining is that Detroit will at least maintain control of Turnbull through the 2024 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).

Taking a two-pronged approach to the free agent market makes perfect sense then, since the Tigers can invest just about any level of resources to upgrade their middle infield and then use another chunk of their payroll to buttress their rotation. Detroit has already been linked to a number of mid-rotation starters, giving them multiple avenues to make a splash this offseason.

Tigers Interested In Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani

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11:48AM: Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is also on the Tigers’ radar, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Like Gray, DeSclafani also didn’t receive a qualifying offer.

11:37AM: The Tigers have “early interest” in Jon Gray, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter).  Gray joins Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, and Detroit legend Justin Verlander as free agent pitchers linked to the Tigers’ search for a veteran arm or two to bolster their young rotation.

Given their interest in qualifying offer recipients Rodriguez and Verlander, it doesn’t appear that the Tigers are necessarily deterred by the idea of giving up draft pick compensation to make a big pitching signing, though Gray wouldn’t require any compensation since the Rockies (curiously) didn’t issue a QO to the right-hander.  This surely gives Gray some extra appeal from Detroit’s perspective, though naturally the same could be said for many teams.

Gray only turned 30 last week, so if he does end up in the Motor City, he should have more prime years to contribute to a Tigers squad that is looking to get back into contention as early as 2022.  Detroit is expected to spend some serious money this offseason, linked to the market for the big free agent shortstops as well as pitchers like Gray who could slot in near the front of the rotation.  MLBTR projected Gray (ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) to land four years and $56MM in free agency, with Tim Dierkes predicting that Gray would in fact sign with the Tigers.

Signing a QO-rejecting free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft.  This would be either their second-round selection or their Competitive Balance Round B selection, depending on where Detroit is drawn in this year’s Competitive Balance Round lottery.  It is also possible that the draft and compensation rules will be altered in the next collective bargaining agreement, so while the Tigers would surely still have to give up something as a penalty for signing a QO free agent, the specific nature of that compensation might not be known until the new CBA is settled.

Under the current rules, the Tigers would also have to give up their fourth-highest draft pick if they signed two free agents who rejected the qualifying offer.  It can be assumed that Detroit would rather not surrender multiple picks if necessary, so if the Tigers did make a big splash and ink one of the QO free agents, it would make them even more focused on non-QO players like Gray for any other big signings.

As far as the Rockies’ own efforts to retain Gray, the club attempted to sign Gray to a three-year extension worth roughly $35MM-$40MM before the end of the regular season, but the righty rejected the offer.  It doesn’t seem like any further negotiation has taken place, since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt told The Athletic’s Nick Groke that “there hasn’t been any conversation” with Gray’s camp since “the end of the season….[Gray’s agent] said they’d stay in touch.  I assume they’re trying to figure out what the market is.”

Joakim Soria Retires

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Right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria is retiring, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, relaying word from Soria’s agent. The 37-year-old pitched for nine different teams over 14 MLB seasons.

Soria made his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals back in 2007, throwing 69 innings with an ERA of 2.48 and notching 17 saves. He became a mainstay of the Royals’ bullpen through the 2011 campaign. In those five seasons, he pitched 315 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.40 and racked up 160 saves. He was an All-Star twice, in 2008 and 2010.

That would prove to be the best stretch of Soria’s career, although he continued to be an effective reliever for another decade, pitching for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates, returning to the Royals, and then stints with White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. In 2021, he started the season with the Diamondbacks and was later traded to the Blue Jays.

Over his entire career, he threw 763 innings with an ERA of 3.11, along with 831 strikeouts and 229 saves. MLBTR congratulates Soria on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Matz, Arroyo

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The Red Sox are making an effort to retain free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez, but the club has myriad avenues to potentially address their rotation. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock could be an option, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) the team is open to the possibility of stretching him out as a starter in 2022.

The 25-year-old Whitlock spent essentially his entire career in the Yankees’ system as a starter, topping out with 120 2/3 innings across three levels in 2018. After plucking him away from their archrival in the Rule 5 draft, the Sox moved him into a bullpen role. That’s typical for a Rule 5 draftee, since teams often prefer to break those unproven players in with lower-leverage innings. But Whitlock proved to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, earning himself a role of higher import as he continued to thrive. Ultimately, Whitlock tossed 73 1/3 innings across 46 relief outings (with another 8 1/3 frames in five postseason appearances). He posted a 1.96 ERA with a strong 27.2% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.7% walk rate.

Moving Whitlock out of the relief role in which he’s been so effective isn’t without risk, but public scouting reports have long suggested he might be a viable starter. His debut campaign offered support for that idea, as Whitlock worked with a three-pitch mix and demonstrated plus control. He did have pronounced platoon splits — lefties hit .293/.349/.475 off him, while righties managed just a .199/.243/.278 mark — that could suggest he’s better deployed situationally, but it’s sensible for the front office to keep the rotation possibility open.

Looking outside the organization, the Sox are also among the teams with early interest in free agent starter Steven Matz, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Boston is certainly one of many clubs in contact with the southpaw’s representatives at Icon Sports Management, and Sherman adds the Tigers and Angels as other potential suitors, in addition to the incumbent Blue Jays.

Matz is coming off his third solid season in the past four years, having worked to a 3.82 ERA/4.12 SIERA across 150 2/3 frames with Toronto. The Jays didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so signing Matz wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. Entering his age-31 campaign, he looks to have a strong case to land a three-year deal.

While the Sox have seemingly focused primarily on the rotation during the first couple days of the offseason, Bloom tells Speier (separate post) that Boston could look into options at second base as well. It doesn’t seem bolstering the keystone is an absolute must, though, as Bloom went on to express faith in Christian Arroyo’s ability to handle the position. The 26-year-old was limited to just 181 plate appearances this past season because of injuries, but he hit at a slightly above-average level (.262/.324/.445) in that limited time. Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison and César Hernández are among a few of the lower-cost free agent options available.

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