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Drew Smyly

NL East Notes: Carrasco, Watson, Smyly

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Carlos Carrasco pitched a rehab outing for Triple-A Syracuse today, with Mets manager Luis Rojas telling reporters (including The New York Post’s Mike Puma) that the veteran righty’s “stuff was great.”  It now seems like Carrasco is finally ready to make his Mets debut, as a source tells Puma that Carrasco is likely to be activated from the 60-day injured list for his next outing, which would seem to line up for next weekend’s series against the Reds.

Acquired along with Francisco Lindor in perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason, Carrasco suffered a torn right hamstring during Spring Training.  Initially expected to miss roughly six to eight weeks, Carrasco has now missed the majority of the season after his recovery took longer than expected.  Assuming Carrasco is healthy and able to return to his usual above-average form, he’ll be able to provide immediate help to a Mets rotation that has been shorthanded by injuries.

More from the NL East…

  • The Marlins have offered first-round draft pick Kahlil Watson a $4.5MM bonus, The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  This figure would put the Marlins in excess of their overall draft pool limit, but under the five percent penalty threshold with a bit of room to spare, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (Twitter link).  Any team that exceeds their draft spending pool by more than five percent would be penalized future picks, so in staying under the five percent line, the Marlins would only have to pay a 75 percent tax on the overage.  Miami’s offer is well above the $3,745,500 assigned slot price for the 16th overall pick, but extra money was likely to be necessary considering that many pundits expected Watson to be selected near the top of the draft board, before he surprisingly fell to the Marlins’ pick.
  • Drew Smyly left yesterday’s game after four innings due to soreness in his left knee, but testing today revealed no structural damage, The Athletic’s David O’Brien tweets.  Assuming no setbacks, the Braves left-hander should be able to take the ball for his next start.  Smyly didn’t pitch well over the season’s first two months but he has quietly regained his form, posting a 2.19 ERA over his last seven starts and 37 innings.

Braves Activate Drew Smyly From 10-Day IL; Option Cristian Pache, Sean Kazmar Jr.

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As expected, the Braves activated southpaw Drew Smyly from the 10-day injured list in advance of his scheduled start tonight against the Diamondbacks.  Infielder Sean Kazmar Jr. was optioned to the alternate training site to create 26-man roster room for Smyly.  Outfielder Cristian Pache is also headed to the alternate site after being activated from the 10-day IL.

Smyly will make a relatively quick return after hitting the IL on April 16 (retroactive to April 13) with left forearm inflammation.  While the injury wasn’t thought to be overly serious, any sort of forearm problem had to be seen as a concern given Smyly’s lengthy health history, including a past Tommy John surgery that kept him from pitching in either the 2017 or 2018 seasons.

The IL stint could perhaps serve as a bit of a reset for Smyly, who had a quality start in his Braves debut on April 6 before struggling in his second outing on April 11, allowing five runs in five innings against the Nationals.  Smyly signed a one-year, $11MM free agent deal with Atlanta last winter, scoring a nice payday in the wake of a bounce-back 2020 season with the Giants.

A groin injury sent Pache to the injured list on April 14, so he’ll return after a minimal absence, though he is no longer on the MLB roster.  Pache has been heralded as one of baseball’s top prospects over the last few years, though he has only barely gotten his feet wet at the big league level, with 13 games and 35 plate appearances in 2020-21.  Pache is still only 22 years old and had played in only 26 Triple-A games in 2019, so the Braves clearly want him to get some more minor league seasoning in order to sharpen up his skills at the plate.  Pache is seen as a future Major League regular based on elite glovework alone, and becoming even an average hitter will raise his ceiling to a potential All-Star level.

Kazmar’s return to the majors ends after two games and one plate appearance, though it was enough to seal one of the more extraordinary comeback stories in recent baseball history.  Kazmar played in 19 games with the Padres in 2008 and didn’t make it back to the big leagues until this season, keeping his career going through years of grinding in the farm systems of four different organizations (Padres, Mariners, Mets, Braves).

East Notes: Braves, Smyly, Sale, Orioles, Kjerstad

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The Braves are planning to activate Drew Smyly from the injured list to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks, David O’Brien of the Athletic was among those to relay (Twitter link). The left-hander was placed on the IL last week with forearm inflammation, but he’ll return after missing just one start. Smyly has allowed nine runs (seven earned) over his first eleven innings for Atlanta, but he’s struck out eleven with just a single walk to this point.

Elsewhere in Atlanta and the game’s East divisions:

  • In other Braves’ pitching news (also via O’Brien), reliever Chris Martin has started throwing as he begins his ramp-up. The right-hander hit the injured list in early April with shoulder inflammation but O’Brien says he could return by the end of Atlanta’s upcoming homestand, which runs through the 29th. Max Fried, who went on the shelf last week after straining his hamstring, seems to be further behind. He has not yet begun throwing and there’s no timetable for his return, per O’Brien. Like Martin, Mike Soroka is dealing with shoulder inflammation; the 23-year-old is expected to begin a throwing program sometime soon, but manager Brian Snitker suggested he’s still far away from any potential return to game action (via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).
  • Red Sox ace Chris Sale is progressing in his recovery from March 2020 Tommy John surgery, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays. Sale isn’t throwing off a mound yet, but manager Alex Cora said he’s “getting closer.” The left-hander will report to the team’s complex in Florida on Sunday to continue his rehab. Sale “feels great,” according to Cora, though the Red Sox still aren’t ready to offer a timetable on a potential 2021 return. Even without Sale, the Red Sox have surprisingly begun the season with an American League-best 12-6 record. Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodríguez have been the top performers in Boston’s rotation this year in Sale’s absence.
  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad has been medically cleared to report to the team’s alternate training site, per Jim Callis of MLB.com. Kjerstad, the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, has been away from the club while recovering from myocarditis. The 22-year-old will need “a months-long buildup” before he’s ready for game action, Callis tweets.

Braves Place Drew Smyly On Injured List

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The Braves announced Friday morning that lefty Drew Smyly is headed to the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm. They’ve recalled right-hander Kyle Wright from their alternate training site to take his place on the roster and start today’s game. Atlanta also recalled Johan Camargo as a corresponding move after optioning lefty Tucker Davidson following last night’s game.

Manager Brian Snitker tells reporters that the hope is Smyly will only need to miss one start (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz), though his status will obviously be monitored in the coming days. Smyly becomes the second Braves starter this week to land on the injured list, joining fellow southpaw Max Fried, who is currently hobbled by a hamstring strain. Wright will get the first crack at stepping into the rotation, and the Braves have another young righty, Bryse Wilson, at their alternate site and ready to step up once Fried’s rotation spot next comes up.

Atlanta inked the veteran Smyly to a one-year deal worth $11MM over the winter, based largely on a terrific five-start showing in San Francisco last year. It was a sizable bet in a huge jump in the oft-injured Smyly’s swinging-strike rate and his overall strikeout rate, which saw respective jumps from 10.7 percent and 23.3 percent in 2019 to 14.9 percent and 37.8 percent in 2020. Injuries are part of the package with Smyly, who has reached 100 innings just thrice since making his big league debut in 2012 and missed the 2017-18 seasons entirely.

For the time being, the Braves certainly have the depth to withstand some short-term injuries in the rotation. But with Fried and Smyly sidelined in addition to a recent setback for Mike Soroka, the injury situations that bear monitoring are beginning to mount.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

 

Pitching Notes: Smyly, Giants, C. Anderson, M. Perez

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The latest news and notes from the mound:

  • Left-hander Drew Smyly came off the open market Monday when he and the Braves reached a one-year, $11MM agreement. That represents a nice raise for someone who signed a one-year, $4MM guarantee with San Francisco last winter, but the 31-year-old Smyly had his sights set even higher than the salary he’ll earn with the Braves. Smyly was requesting a contract in the three-year, $30MM neighborhood before inking his Braves pact, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s an ambitious asking price for a hurler who has dealt with serious injuries throughout his career, and it’s worth noting Smyly struggled mightily as recently as 2019. To Smyly’s credit, though, he had a big-time bounce-back campaign this past season with a 3.42 ERA/2.01 FIP, 14.35 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9, and a 2.6 mph increase in average fastball velocity over 26 1/3 innings.
  • With Smyly out of the picture for the Giants, Grant Brisbee of The Athletic takes a look at a few low-cost starters they could explore to replace him this winter. In Brisbee’s estimation, Chris Archer, Alex Wood, Matt Shoemaker and Anthony DeSclafani could make for intriguing reclamation projects for the Giants’ rotation. Nobody from that group looks especially exciting right now, but neither did Smyly at this time a year ago, and he proved to be a shrewd pickup for San Francisco.
  • There are “several teams” that have shown interest in free-agent right-hander Chase Anderson, Robert Murray of Fansided writes. While Anderson has typically been a useful mid- to back-end starter since he debuted in 2014, the 32-year-old had a brutal 2020 in his lone season with the Blue Jays. Anderson concluded with 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA/6.16 FIP ball, owing largely to a horrific 28.9 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio, though he did post impressive strikeout and walk numbers (10.16 K/9, 2.67 BB/9). Toronto had a $9.5MM option over Anderson for 2021, but it bought him out for $500K.
  • As is the case with Anderson, there is more than one team interested in free-agent southpaw Martin Perez, according to Murray. Perez spent 2020 with the Red Sox and recorded a 4.50 ERA/4.88 FIP with 6.88 K/9 and 4.06 BB/9 across 62 frames. The Red Sox then bought out the 29-year-old for $500K in lieu of paying him a $6.85MM option for next season.

Braves Sign Drew Smyly

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The Atlanta Braves announced the signing of southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal, per a team release (via Twitter). Smyly is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

The 31-year-old Smyly has appeared in the Majors for the Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, and Giants, accumulating a 4.13 ERA/4.15 FIP across 188 games (111 starts) totaling 710 2/3 innings over seven years.

He also spent 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the Chicago Cubs organization. The Cubs had signed Smyly to a two-year deal as he recovered, which kicked off a convoluted set of trades between the Cubs and Rangers. First, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from the Rangers in July of 2018. As part of that deal, the Rangers agreed to pay Hamels’ $6MM buyout if the Cubs chose not to pick up his $20MM option in 2019. Rather than pay the buyout, the Rangers took Smyly and his $7MM contract off the Cubs’ hands so that Chicago could afford Hamels’ option – which they did indeed execute.

Smyly, unfortunately, didn’t last the year in Texas. The Rangers released Smyly on June 25th after he stumbled to a 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. He would sign with the Phillies to finish 2019.

Smyly and Hamels again cross paths here, with Smyly presumably taking Hamels’ place in Atlanta after a year in which Hamels missed all but one start due to injury. If Hamels somehow ends up signing with the Giants (not inconceivable), their double-helical careers can continue to intertwine.

Smyly, meanwhile, looks like he might have finally returned to his early-career form – or better. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA across 26 1/3 innings in 2020 with 14.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He finished in the 89th percentile for Whiff% and 97th percentile for K%, per Statcast. His four-seamer also exhibited some out-of-character giddy-up, averaging 93.6 mph, a 2.5 mph jump from the year prior. As small a sample as that may be, it was enough for Smyly to parlay his one-year, $4MM deal with the Giants into a contract more than double in value with the Braves.

Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves know how to handle some injury uncertainty. They are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover (while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant). If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level – when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line – the Braves will happily cash in on that upside. They do intend to place him into the rotation, per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter).

The concern, beyond injury, is that Smyly might turn back into the pumpkin that logged a 6.24 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2019. If you consider his time with the Rangers an aberration due to his recent recovery from Tommy John, however, Smyly’s combined ERA between the Phillies and Giants is a much more palatable 4.15 ERA over 89 innings. The Braves would take that kind of production in a rotation alongside Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright.

Latest On Giants’ 2021 Rotation Options

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Earlier today we took a brief look at the A’s rotation picture heading into 2021, but whereas the A’s have more rotation continuity than most years, it’s a starkly different picture on the other side of the bay. Most of the Giants’ 2020 rotation is heading to the open market, including Kevin Gausman Drew Smyly, Jeff Samardzija, and Trevor Cahill, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Of course, they got very little from Samardzija in 2020 (4 starts, 9.72 ERA), while Smyly (5 starts, 26 1/3 innings, 3.42 ERA) and Cahill (6 starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA) were moderate contributors. Gausman would be the biggest loss of the group, going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old has provided somewhat spotty production throughout his career, making his free agency case difficult to project.

The Giants aren’t bereft of in-house options to fill out the rotation, however. Johnny Cueto remains under contract for $22MM in 2021 with a $22MM club option with $5MM buyout for 2022. The 34-year-old maintained his rotation spot in 2020, though he only provided middling production with a 5.40 ERA/4.64 FIP across 63 1/3 innings.

Beyond the veteran, the Giants have Tyler Beede returning from Tommy John surgery, as well as Logan Webb, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez, and Anthony Banda who could get a look somewhere on the rotation depth chart. Prospects Seth Corry and Sean Hjelle, Shea notes, are still probably at least a year from providing quality innings at the big leagues.

The challenge for President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi will be identifying those front of the rotation arms that can help the Giants contend with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Anderson will be 31-years-old next year, Beede is coming off Tommy John, and Webb has largely disappointed thus far with a 5.36 ERA/4.15 FIP in 94 innings across two seasons. Depending on the timeline for their pitching prospects, the Giants could at least explore adding through the free agent market.

Zaidi On Giants’ Offseason

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For a second straight season, the Giants appeared on the cusp of an unexpected playoff berth but ultimately landed on the outside looking in. It’s been disappointing for a fan base that has become accustomed to postseason ball over the past decade, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already said that his aim is to put a playoff team on the field next year. Zaidi appeared on KNBR’s Mark Willard Show this week to discuss the offseason ahead and what moves the Giants could take to get back to the playoffs (audio link with the entire 15-minute interview available).

Pitching will be the focus, it seems, with Zaidi acknowledging that retaining both Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly, in particular, will be a “priority” this offseason. Both showed well after signing one-year, make-good deals in San Francisco, though Smyly’s season was interrupted by a hand injury that sidelined him for more than a month and limited him to just 26 1/3 frames. Zaidi acknowledged that the organization has been unable to help wondering what might’ve been with a healthy Smyly, who pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a gaudy 42-to-9 K/BB ratio as a Giant.

Gausman’s excellent rebound campaign and the strong underlying metrics that support his success could make him one of the most sought-after arms behind top free agent Trevor Bauer and should at least push the Giants to think about making a qualifying offer. Smyly’s continued durability woes likely make him a more affordable reunion candidate, but the Giants will be seeking multiple arms this winter based on Zaidi’s comments. The San Francisco president of baseball ops suggested that stockpiling sufficient depth to get through 162 games, as opposed to this year’s 60-game slate, will be crucial.

The Giants have little in terms of rotation certainty, with Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson the likeliest starters in 2021 at the moment. Beyond adding a reliable starter or two, Zaidi spoke of “backfilling” the starting staff. It seems fair to expect the Giants to bring in a handful of bounceback candiates on minor league deals — similar to their arrangement with Trevor Cahill this past season.

As for the bullpen, Zaidi made clear that he’ll pursue at least one experienced option to not only improve the quality of results but also to serve as a mentor for younger arms who are still figuring things out at the MLB level:

We are going to try to get some experience in that group. It certainly helps. One of the things we heard from our young relievers was how valuable it was to have a guy like Tony Watson down there, who’s seen a lot of battles from the bullpen and served as an example for them on how to get ready — how to think about the hitters you’re going to come into the game and face. There’s a lot of value in having good veterans in the bullpen, and that’s something we’ll look to do.

A reunion with Watson certainly seems plausible based on that comment, although if the club has true postseason aspirations, perhaps a more traditional closer would be a sensible addition. Ninth-inning duties were somewhat of a carousel at Oracle Park in 2020, with five different players recording saves — none more than Trevor Gott’s four. Liam Hendriks, Trevor Rosenthal, Trevor May and rebound candidate Kirby Yates are among the most notable names on the bullpen market this winter. Even if the Giants don’t expect to utilize a defined closer, bringing in some established help appears likely.

While it seems like the Giants will be spending to bolster the pitching staff, Zaidi cautioned against any visions of a top-tier position player joining the fray. For one thing, National League clubs are still uncertain whether they’ll have a designated hitter in 2021. Even with a DH spot at his disposal, though, Zaidi suggested that the organization is confident in the in-house group:

With the way our offense performed this year, I think we can be really selective and targeted and maybe look for more complementary players than anybody who is going to come in and play everyday, because we’ve got a lot of good options there.

In fact, Zaidi wondered whether, absent a National League DH in 2021, the club would even have enough at-bats to go around for the incumbent group. That might’ve seemed far-fetched coming into the year, but Mike Yastrzemski continued his 2019 breakout while veterans like Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford enjoyed bounceback seasons. The Giants’ overall .263/.335/.451 was good for a 114 wRC+ that was tied for sixth in MLB, and their 299 runs were the eighth-most in the Majors. That was done without much production behind the plate, but the Giants will welcome Buster Posey back into the lineup next season as well, which should help the cause even if his MVP-caliber days are behind him.

There are, of course, incalculable routes the Giants could take to address those offseason needs, but Zaidi did indicate that he expects the free-agent market to be more active than the trade front — at least for the Giants. It was difficult to line up on swaps given the sport’s economic uncertainty this summer, Zaidi noted, and he also pointed to what is expected to be a deep supply of free agents from which to draw with many teams expected to be aggressive in their non-tenders.

Giants Interested In Re-Signing Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly

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The Giants spent a combined $13MM on right-hander Kevin Gausman and southpaw Drew Smyly in free agency last winter, and those short-term, buy-low deals worked out well for a club that narrowly missed a playoff berth. Now, the Giants are hoping to retain the pair, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

“It’s obviously their prerogative to play out the market, but we certainly have interest in bringing both of those guys back,”said Zaidi, who added that the Giants are “going to be shopping for some starting pitching this offseason.”

The Giants’ rotation was a middle-of-the-pack unit in 2020, but Gausman and Smyly were bright spots. Gausman, a former Oriole, Brave and Red whom the Giants signed for $9MM, gave the club 59 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP pitching with 11.92 K/9 against 2.41 BB/9. Pound for pound, the hard-throwing Gausman was among the most effective starters in the NL, so his next deal should be far more lucrative than the one he signed last winter. For what it’s worth, Gausman said last week he’s interested in staying with the Giants, who could tender him a qualifying offer before he returns to free agency.

Smyly only tossed 26 1/3 innings as a Giant after inking a $4MM contract, but the results were highly encouraging. He concluded with a 3.42 ERA/2.01 FIP, 14.35 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9. All of those numbers represented major rebounds for a hurler whom injuries have ravaged in recent years – including during a 2020 in which he missed over a month with a left index finger strain. Smyly also recorded a career-best 93.8 mph as a Giant, and that’s another reason he should draw a good amount of interest if he gets to free agency.

As of now, the Giants’ rotation is facing a slew of questions as the team heads into the offseason, which is why Zaidi will work to address it. Along with Gausman and Smyly, Jeff Samardzija and Trevor Cahill are on track to reach the open market. Those four amassed 25 starts for the Giants in 2020, and nobody remaining (Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson) recorded particularly strong numbers.

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