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Drew Smyly

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

 

Pitching Notes: Smyly, Giants, C. Anderson, M. Perez

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The latest news and notes from the mound:

  • Left-hander Drew Smyly came off the open market Monday when he and the Braves reached a one-year, $11MM agreement. That represents a nice raise for someone who signed a one-year, $4MM guarantee with San Francisco last winter, but the 31-year-old Smyly had his sights set even higher than the salary he’ll earn with the Braves. Smyly was requesting a contract in the three-year, $30MM neighborhood before inking his Braves pact, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s an ambitious asking price for a hurler who has dealt with serious injuries throughout his career, and it’s worth noting Smyly struggled mightily as recently as 2019. To Smyly’s credit, though, he had a big-time bounce-back campaign this past season with a 3.42 ERA/2.01 FIP, 14.35 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9, and a 2.6 mph increase in average fastball velocity over 26 1/3 innings.
  • With Smyly out of the picture for the Giants, Grant Brisbee of The Athletic takes a look at a few low-cost starters they could explore to replace him this winter. In Brisbee’s estimation, Chris Archer, Alex Wood, Matt Shoemaker and Anthony DeSclafani could make for intriguing reclamation projects for the Giants’ rotation. Nobody from that group looks especially exciting right now, but neither did Smyly at this time a year ago, and he proved to be a shrewd pickup for San Francisco.
  • There are “several teams” that have shown interest in free-agent right-hander Chase Anderson, Robert Murray of Fansided writes. While Anderson has typically been a useful mid- to back-end starter since he debuted in 2014, the 32-year-old had a brutal 2020 in his lone season with the Blue Jays. Anderson concluded with 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA/6.16 FIP ball, owing largely to a horrific 28.9 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio, though he did post impressive strikeout and walk numbers (10.16 K/9, 2.67 BB/9). Toronto had a $9.5MM option over Anderson for 2021, but it bought him out for $500K.
  • As is the case with Anderson, there is more than one team interested in free-agent southpaw Martin Perez, according to Murray. Perez spent 2020 with the Red Sox and recorded a 4.50 ERA/4.88 FIP with 6.88 K/9 and 4.06 BB/9 across 62 frames. The Red Sox then bought out the 29-year-old for $500K in lieu of paying him a $6.85MM option for next season.

Braves Sign Drew Smyly

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The Atlanta Braves announced the signing of southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal, per a team release (via Twitter). Smyly is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

The 31-year-old Smyly has appeared in the Majors for the Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, and Giants, accumulating a 4.13 ERA/4.15 FIP across 188 games (111 starts) totaling 710 2/3 innings over seven years.

He also spent 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the Chicago Cubs organization. The Cubs had signed Smyly to a two-year deal as he recovered, which kicked off a convoluted set of trades between the Cubs and Rangers. First, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from the Rangers in July of 2018. As part of that deal, the Rangers agreed to pay Hamels’ $6MM buyout if the Cubs chose not to pick up his $20MM option in 2019. Rather than pay the buyout, the Rangers took Smyly and his $7MM contract off the Cubs’ hands so that Chicago could afford Hamels’ option – which they did indeed execute.

Smyly, unfortunately, didn’t last the year in Texas. The Rangers released Smyly on June 25th after he stumbled to a 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. He would sign with the Phillies to finish 2019.

Smyly and Hamels again cross paths here, with Smyly presumably taking Hamels’ place in Atlanta after a year in which Hamels missed all but one start due to injury. If Hamels somehow ends up signing with the Giants (not inconceivable), their double-helical careers can continue to intertwine.

Smyly, meanwhile, looks like he might have finally returned to his early-career form – or better. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA across 26 1/3 innings in 2020 with 14.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He finished in the 89th percentile for Whiff% and 97th percentile for K%, per Statcast. His four-seamer also exhibited some out-of-character giddy-up, averaging 93.6 mph, a 2.5 mph jump from the year prior. As small a sample as that may be, it was enough for Smyly to parlay his one-year, $4MM deal with the Giants into a contract more than double in value with the Braves.

Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves know how to handle some injury uncertainty. They are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover (while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant). If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level – when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line – the Braves will happily cash in on that upside. They do intend to place him into the rotation, per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter).

The concern, beyond injury, is that Smyly might turn back into the pumpkin that logged a 6.24 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2019. If you consider his time with the Rangers an aberration due to his recent recovery from Tommy John, however, Smyly’s combined ERA between the Phillies and Giants is a much more palatable 4.15 ERA over 89 innings. The Braves would take that kind of production in a rotation alongside Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright.

Latest On Giants’ 2021 Rotation Options

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Earlier today we took a brief look at the A’s rotation picture heading into 2021, but whereas the A’s have more rotation continuity than most years, it’s a starkly different picture on the other side of the bay. Most of the Giants’ 2020 rotation is heading to the open market, including Kevin Gausman Drew Smyly, Jeff Samardzija, and Trevor Cahill, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Of course, they got very little from Samardzija in 2020 (4 starts, 9.72 ERA), while Smyly (5 starts, 26 1/3 innings, 3.42 ERA) and Cahill (6 starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA) were moderate contributors. Gausman would be the biggest loss of the group, going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old has provided somewhat spotty production throughout his career, making his free agency case difficult to project.

The Giants aren’t bereft of in-house options to fill out the rotation, however. Johnny Cueto remains under contract for $22MM in 2021 with a $22MM club option with $5MM buyout for 2022. The 34-year-old maintained his rotation spot in 2020, though he only provided middling production with a 5.40 ERA/4.64 FIP across 63 1/3 innings.

Beyond the veteran, the Giants have Tyler Beede returning from Tommy John surgery, as well as Logan Webb, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez, and Anthony Banda who could get a look somewhere on the rotation depth chart. Prospects Seth Corry and Sean Hjelle, Shea notes, are still probably at least a year from providing quality innings at the big leagues.

The challenge for President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi will be identifying those front of the rotation arms that can help the Giants contend with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Anderson will be 31-years-old next year, Beede is coming off Tommy John, and Webb has largely disappointed thus far with a 5.36 ERA/4.15 FIP in 94 innings across two seasons. Depending on the timeline for their pitching prospects, the Giants could at least explore adding through the free agent market.

Zaidi On Giants’ Offseason

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For a second straight season, the Giants appeared on the cusp of an unexpected playoff berth but ultimately landed on the outside looking in. It’s been disappointing for a fan base that has become accustomed to postseason ball over the past decade, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already said that his aim is to put a playoff team on the field next year. Zaidi appeared on KNBR’s Mark Willard Show this week to discuss the offseason ahead and what moves the Giants could take to get back to the playoffs (audio link with the entire 15-minute interview available).

Pitching will be the focus, it seems, with Zaidi acknowledging that retaining both Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly, in particular, will be a “priority” this offseason. Both showed well after signing one-year, make-good deals in San Francisco, though Smyly’s season was interrupted by a hand injury that sidelined him for more than a month and limited him to just 26 1/3 frames. Zaidi acknowledged that the organization has been unable to help wondering what might’ve been with a healthy Smyly, who pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a gaudy 42-to-9 K/BB ratio as a Giant.

Gausman’s excellent rebound campaign and the strong underlying metrics that support his success could make him one of the most sought-after arms behind top free agent Trevor Bauer and should at least push the Giants to think about making a qualifying offer. Smyly’s continued durability woes likely make him a more affordable reunion candidate, but the Giants will be seeking multiple arms this winter based on Zaidi’s comments. The San Francisco president of baseball ops suggested that stockpiling sufficient depth to get through 162 games, as opposed to this year’s 60-game slate, will be crucial.

The Giants have little in terms of rotation certainty, with Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson the likeliest starters in 2021 at the moment. Beyond adding a reliable starter or two, Zaidi spoke of “backfilling” the starting staff. It seems fair to expect the Giants to bring in a handful of bounceback candiates on minor league deals — similar to their arrangement with Trevor Cahill this past season.

As for the bullpen, Zaidi made clear that he’ll pursue at least one experienced option to not only improve the quality of results but also to serve as a mentor for younger arms who are still figuring things out at the MLB level:

We are going to try to get some experience in that group. It certainly helps. One of the things we heard from our young relievers was how valuable it was to have a guy like Tony Watson down there, who’s seen a lot of battles from the bullpen and served as an example for them on how to get ready — how to think about the hitters you’re going to come into the game and face. There’s a lot of value in having good veterans in the bullpen, and that’s something we’ll look to do.

A reunion with Watson certainly seems plausible based on that comment, although if the club has true postseason aspirations, perhaps a more traditional closer would be a sensible addition. Ninth-inning duties were somewhat of a carousel at Oracle Park in 2020, with five different players recording saves — none more than Trevor Gott’s four. Liam Hendriks, Trevor Rosenthal, Trevor May and rebound candidate Kirby Yates are among the most notable names on the bullpen market this winter. Even if the Giants don’t expect to utilize a defined closer, bringing in some established help appears likely.

While it seems like the Giants will be spending to bolster the pitching staff, Zaidi cautioned against any visions of a top-tier position player joining the fray. For one thing, National League clubs are still uncertain whether they’ll have a designated hitter in 2021. Even with a DH spot at his disposal, though, Zaidi suggested that the organization is confident in the in-house group:

With the way our offense performed this year, I think we can be really selective and targeted and maybe look for more complementary players than anybody who is going to come in and play everyday, because we’ve got a lot of good options there.

In fact, Zaidi wondered whether, absent a National League DH in 2021, the club would even have enough at-bats to go around for the incumbent group. That might’ve seemed far-fetched coming into the year, but Mike Yastrzemski continued his 2019 breakout while veterans like Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford enjoyed bounceback seasons. The Giants’ overall .263/.335/.451 was good for a 114 wRC+ that was tied for sixth in MLB, and their 299 runs were the eighth-most in the Majors. That was done without much production behind the plate, but the Giants will welcome Buster Posey back into the lineup next season as well, which should help the cause even if his MVP-caliber days are behind him.

There are, of course, incalculable routes the Giants could take to address those offseason needs, but Zaidi did indicate that he expects the free-agent market to be more active than the trade front — at least for the Giants. It was difficult to line up on swaps given the sport’s economic uncertainty this summer, Zaidi noted, and he also pointed to what is expected to be a deep supply of free agents from which to draw with many teams expected to be aggressive in their non-tenders.

Giants Interested In Re-Signing Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly

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The Giants spent a combined $13MM on right-hander Kevin Gausman and southpaw Drew Smyly in free agency last winter, and those short-term, buy-low deals worked out well for a club that narrowly missed a playoff berth. Now, the Giants are hoping to retain the pair, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

“It’s obviously their prerogative to play out the market, but we certainly have interest in bringing both of those guys back,”said Zaidi, who added that the Giants are “going to be shopping for some starting pitching this offseason.”

The Giants’ rotation was a middle-of-the-pack unit in 2020, but Gausman and Smyly were bright spots. Gausman, a former Oriole, Brave and Red whom the Giants signed for $9MM, gave the club 59 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP pitching with 11.92 K/9 against 2.41 BB/9. Pound for pound, the hard-throwing Gausman was among the most effective starters in the NL, so his next deal should be far more lucrative than the one he signed last winter. For what it’s worth, Gausman said last week he’s interested in staying with the Giants, who could tender him a qualifying offer before he returns to free agency.

Smyly only tossed 26 1/3 innings as a Giant after inking a $4MM contract, but the results were highly encouraging. He concluded with a 3.42 ERA/2.01 FIP, 14.35 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9. All of those numbers represented major rebounds for a hurler whom injuries have ravaged in recent years – including during a 2020 in which he missed over a month with a left index finger strain. Smyly also recorded a career-best 93.8 mph as a Giant, and that’s another reason he should draw a good amount of interest if he gets to free agency.

As of now, the Giants’ rotation is facing a slew of questions as the team heads into the offseason, which is why Zaidi will work to address it. Along with Gausman and Smyly, Jeff Samardzija and Trevor Cahill are on track to reach the open market. Those four amassed 25 starts for the Giants in 2020, and nobody remaining (Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson) recorded particularly strong numbers.

Giants Activate Drew Smyly

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The Giants have activated left-hander Drew Smyly from the injured list, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report. They also made newly acquired first baseman’s Justin Smoak selection official and optioned righty Rico Garcia.

Smyly, who Pavlovic notes should work from the bullpen upon his return, has been out since Aug. 2 with a left index finger strain. Before that, he made three appearances (two starts) and looked good over 8 1/3 innings, in which he allowed two earned runs on seven hits and four walks. He struck out nine batters in that span and also saw his average fastball velocity clock in at a career-high 93.6 mph.

These next couple weeks will be important to both the Giants and Smyly, as the club’s surprisingly in the thick of the playoff hunt at 23-21; meanwhile, Smyly has plenty to pitch for as someone who’s due to reach free agency in the offseason. The Giants signed him for a guaranteed $4MM last offseason, even though Smyly was coming off three nightmarish years (he endured two injury-wrecked campaigns with the Rays and Mariners before struggling in 2019 with the Rangers and Phillies). But if Smyly continues rolling before the season runs out, he could not only help the Giants to the playoffs, but put himself in a more favorable position on the cusp of another trip to the open market.

NL Injury Notes: Pham, Smyly, Turner, Pirates

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Padres outfielder Tommy Pham is less than a month out from a broken hamate bone, but he’s making rapid progress. Pham resumed live on-field batting practice today, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. The 32-year-old had been off to a sluggish start to the year but will still have some time to make his presence felt as the Pads try to angle for postseason position.

More injury updates from the National League …

  • The Giants are preparing to welcome back southpaw Drew Smyly tomorrow, manager Gabe Kapler tells reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see what the veteran hurler can deliver down the stretch. Though he hasn’t been available for many innings, he turned in a few interesting outings that hinted at a resurgence.
  • While there’s little reason to rush, the Dodgers are close to activating rehabbing third baseman Justin Turner. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link) that Turner still hasn’t put his tender hamstring through the full paces. Nevertheless, the club expects to have him active within the week, though Turner could initially function as a DH.
  • The Pirates provided a few pitching rehab updates, some more promising than others (via MLB.com’s Adam Berry, on Twitter). Mitch Keller (side injury) and Jameson Taillon (Tommy John) are each throwing sim games, while reliever Keone Kela is now participating in mound work. It’s still unclear how much MLB action each of those hurlers will be capable of late this year, but that’s generally encouraging news. The situation is different for fellow righty Yacksel Rios, who remains sidelined by shoulder woes. He was shut down after symptoms flared up.

Giants Release Abiatal Avelino; Latest On Drew Smyly

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The Giants have released infielder Abiatal Avelino, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. He had been part of the Giants’ alternate training site.

The 25-year-old Avelino – whom San Francisco acquired from the Yankees in a 2018 trade centering on Andrew McCutchen – had brief stints with the Giants in each of the previous two seasons, during which he totaled five hits (all singles) in 19 plate appearances. Avelino has garnered far more experience in Triple-A, though he also hasn’t been a world-beater there, evidenced by his .266/.302/.402 slash with 15 home runs  across 873 trips to the plate.

In other Giants news, manager Gabe Kapler announced to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and other reporters that the team could activate left-hander Drew Smyly from the injured list on Wednesday or Thursday. Smyly, whom the Giants signed to a $4MM guarantee in the offseason, has only made three appearances this year and hasn’t pitched since Aug. 1 on account of a strained left index finger. Before that, the 31-year-old threw 8 1/3 innings of three-run ball with 11 strikeouts and four walks, and he averaged a career-best 93.4 mph on his fastball. Two of Smyly’s three outings this season have come as a starter, but it’s unclear whether he’ll return to the playoff-contending Giants’ rotation when he comes back.

Health Updates: Heyward, Semien, Giants, Verlander

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Jason Heyward was removed from tonight’s game prior to the fifth inning due to illness, and Cubs manager David Ross told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter links) and other reporters that Heyward was sent to hospital for precautionary reasons.  “He’s not a guy that you ever have concerns about, so when he says he is having trouble breathing and (feeling) light-headed, I just want to make sure everything’s all right,” Ross said.

It seems probable that Heyward will miss at least a game or two due to this situation even if everything checks out with doctors, though obviously the chief concern is that Heyward is healthy and well.  The 31-year-old Heyward is enjoying by far the best of his five seasons in Chicago, entering tonight’s play with a superb .306/.421/.551 slash line and five home runs over 121 PA.

Some more items from around baseball…

  • A rib/side injury has kept Marcus Semien out of action since August 29, though the Athletics shortstop could take batting practice on the field tomorrow, manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other reporters.  That could be a precursor for an impending return for Semien, who can return whenever he is ready since he wasn’t placed on the injured list — the A’s had a team-wide break in the schedule due to a positive COVID-19 test.  Semien is still looking to get on track this season, hitting only .229/.285/.379 over his first 151 plate appearances.
  • Giants hurlers Jeff Samardzija and Drew Smyly each threw around 50 pitches in simulated game action on Saturday, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle).  Smyly has been out of action since August 2 due to strained left index finger, while Samardzija hit the 10-day IL on August 8 with a shoulder impingement.  It isn’t yet clear when either pitcher could return, or in what roles they could be deployed in upon their returns.  Kapler’s mention of relief work as a possible route for Samardzija is notable, given that “The Shark” has worked exclusively as a starter since the start of the 2012 season.
  • Justin Verlander has begun throwing off a mound, Astros GM James Click said today during a pregame interview with Astros Radio (hat tip to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan).  A forearm strain has kept Verlander sidelined for all but one start of the 2020 season, though his latest rehab update provides some hope that Verlander could potentially still return at some point in the regular season or postseason.
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