MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers! Read the transcript below.
- Hi Anthony, have there been way more transactions than usual for late May? Seems so to me.
Anthony Franco
- All minor stuff but yeah, I think so. This week in particular has been really busy with a bunch of small moves
- Granted, Casey Lawrence and Cooper Hummel account for 80% of them
baseball gods laugh and laugh
- What would it take for the Mets to get Brent Suter from the Reds?
Anthony Franco
- Reds are still hanging around so this won't happen in the next couple weeks but yeah, he seems like a perfectly viable Mets target who'd only require a fringe top 30-35 guy in the system
Belli bombs for life
- Yesterday in your Yankees outfielders article, you said Bellinger is virtually guaranteed to opt out after this year. Why? His production is right around where it was for his last season in Chicago. His defensive ratings have gone up, to be fair. But do you think he'll match/exceed the $28.5M he's making next year on a multi-year deal? Why not risk staying in the ballpark made for his swing and enjoy the high AAV for one more year?
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The Yankees’ Outfielders Raising Their Free Agent Stocks
For the second straight season, the Yankees have the best outfield in baseball. Having the best hitter on the planet is an excellent starting point. This level of dominance can't all come from Aaron Judge, though. Last season, Juan Soto paired with Judge as an all-time 1-2 offensive punch. It seemed almost impossible for the outfield to match last year's .266/.377/.516 line after losing Soto to free agency.
They've instead improved upon that monster production through this season's first two months. Yankee outfielders carry a .293/.380/.533 slash. They lead MLB with 37 home runs and trail only the Cubs with 113 runs batted in. They're handily above the rest of the league in all three slash stats. The Cubs are the only team that is particularly close in terms of FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
Judge somehow elevating from a .322/.458/.701 performance is the biggest factor. Yet the Yankees have largely offset the loss of production from Soto -- at least so far -- by not having anyone close to last season's weak link, Alex Verdugo. That's a testament mostly to Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, each of whom have gotten out to excellent starts. (Jasson Domínguez has decent numbers overall as well, though most of that comes from a three-homer barrage in Sacramento on May 9.) The early paces from Bellinger and Grisham provide the Yankees needed lineup depth around Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. They're also significant factors for what looks to be a shallow upcoming free agent class behind Kyle Tucker.
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MLB Mailbag: Neto, Nationals, Trade Targets, Free Agents
This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.
RJ asks:
What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?
Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors. As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury. He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.
Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward. He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR. His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.
Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement. The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week). I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.
Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result. He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops. He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball. In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season. Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark. The second-phase breakout seems real.
The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft. Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years. That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.
Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!
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Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?
This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.
Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.
The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.
Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.
The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.
Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
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MLB Mailbag: Soto, Simpson, Phillies, Brewers, Herrera
This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.
Ralph asks:
What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?
My take is that it's much ado about nothing.
The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it? Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances. He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.
Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball. One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring. I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).
I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines. Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.
The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks. To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24. And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.
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The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation
Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.
If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat, Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.
Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.
The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).
They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.
And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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The Mariners Need To Shake Up Their Offense
Mariners fans entered the season with something of a sour outlook on the 2025 season. That's understandable, given an offseason in which the front office was clearly handcuffed by payroll limitations and a paper-thin trade market for big league hitters. Armed with a only a reported $15-16MM to patch over multiple needs in the infield, there wasn't a lot out there for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander to realistically pursue.
Seattle wound up rolling the dice on a handful of cost-effective infield options. Jorge Polanco returned on a one-year deal with a conditional player option. Donovan Solano snagged a $3.5MM guarantee. Rowdy Tellez signed a minor league deal and made the team after a big spring showing (.298/.320/.574 in 50 plate appearances).
Frustration was understandable. The Mariners had made a big splash at the prior deadline, reeling in Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but fans hoping for a similarly bold strike in the offseason after another narrow playoff miss were left wanting.
That frustration likely faded for many as the Mariners raced out to a blistering start. On May 7, they sat with a 22-14 record, leading the American League West by a three-game margin and sporting a +31 run differential. One might imagine that the Mariners were again being carried by their brilliant rotation, but that wasn't the case -- at least not entirely. George Kirby has still yet to throw a pitch in 2025 as he recovers from some shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert hit the injured list on April 25 and remains there. Bryan Woo has been brilliant. Luis Castillo has been good. Gilbert was his typically excellent self prior to his flexor injury. But the Mariners' starting pitching, as a whole, has been a middle-of-the-pack unit.
Instead, Seattle's hot start was largely attributable to a surprisingly potent offense. Through that previously mentioned May 7 date, M's hitters were slashing .247/.340/.415, resulting in a 122 wRC+ that ranked third in the majors. They were fourth in home runs, seventh in runs scored, 12th in batting average, second in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage.
In the week-plus since that time, the Mariners have lost five of six games and posted a collective .206/.259/.326 batting line (70 wRC+). Typically, there's little sense panicking over a week of poor results, but there was already reason to be a bit skeptical of Seattle's sudden offensive prowess. Good as Cal Raleigh is, he's not going to continue at a 50-homer pace. Polanco isn't going to keep his OPS north of 1.000. J.P. Crawford isn't sustaining a .410 OBP, nor will Leo Rivas keep hitting .341. Those timely early-season hot streaks buoyed the Seattle offense but can't all be sustained.
The Mariners seemingly recognize that some new blood is needed; they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the division-rival Rangers and took on about $3.7MM in salary to do so. That was an understandable move with both Victor Robles and Luke Raley on the injured list for the foreseeable future, but it shouldn't be the only one the Mariners consider.
Let's run through a few easy ways to bolster a lineup that is facing even more pressure than usual now that Bryce Miller has joined rotation-mates Kirby and Gilbert on the injured list...
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
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