Twins Rumors

AL Central Notes: Twins, Royals, Greinke, Rosario,

By Steve Adams and Sean Bavazzano | March 17, 2022 at 9:59pm CDT

Zack Greinke is headed back to the Royals on a one-year deal worth $13MM, but Kansas City faced some competition from a division rival in securing his services. The Twins made a “strong push” to sign Greinke before he landed back in K.C., tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. Wolfson speculates that in the end, the allure of returning to his original organization may have simply proven too strong for Minnesota or another organization to overcome once the Royals jumped into the bidding.

The Twins have been one of the most active clubs on the trade market since the lockout ended, but they’ve yet to make a serious move in free agency this offseason — either pre- or post-lockout. Minnesota has added Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez via trade and rolled the dice on an affordable Dylan Bundy flier ($5MM with a 2023 club option) in free agency, but there’s still work to be done in the rotation, at shortstop and in the bullpen. They’ve been talking to the A’s about lefty Sean Manaea and righty Frankie Montas, and they’ve also reportedly been in touch with Trevor Story about a potential deal.

Here’s more from the division…

Speaking of Greinke, the new Royals right-hander told reporters that he is not planning for the 2022 season to be his last, per Josh Vernier of 610 Sports Radio’s. It’s a welcome piece of news for fans of the enigmatic pitcher, who will gear up for his twentieth year in the Majors if he lands on an active roster in 2023. The longtime ace isn’t just looking to pad his Hall of Fame credentials either, as he’s coming off a season where he posted a useful 4.16 ERA in 171 innings. Though Greinke’s strikeout and home run rates trended in the wrong direction last year his ability to pound the strike zone and eat innings make up a skillset that will surely appeal to teams.
The Guardians have a huge need in the outfield and a massive stockpile of high-end middle infield talent on the cusp of MLB readiness, which has prompted a good bit of speculation about them trading for some outfield help. However, manager Terry Francona told reporters yesterday that he currently plans to have 2021 shortstop Amed Rosario split his time between short and left field, which could create some additional opportunities for that surplus of middle infield prospects (Twitter link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Rosario, 26, posted a .282/.321/.409 batting line in 588 plate appearances last season — spending the vast majority of his time at shortstop. He did see 123 innings in the outfield, mostly in center, with lackluster defensive ratings. It’s still possible that Cleveland will pick up some more established outfield help one way or another, but for now it looks like Myles Straw will reprise his role in center and be flanked by a combination of Rosario, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado and top prospect Steven Kwan in the corners.

Twins Claim Jose Godoy From Giants

By Mark Polishuk | March 17, 2022 at 1:49pm CDT

The Twins have claimed catcher Jose Godoy off waivers from the Giants, as announced by both teams. The claim opens up a roster spot for Joc Pederson, whose new one-year contract with San Francisco is now official.

Godoy is changing teams for the second time in five days, as the Giants only just claimed the backstop off waivers from the Mariners earlier this week. Godoy will head from one team experiencing a sea change behind the plate (due to Buster Posey’s retirement) to another, as the Twins just acquired Gary Sanchez from the Yankees and dealt Mitch Garver to the Rangers in a pair of trades.

Beyond Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota doesn’t have any other catchers in the organization with big league experience, so Godoy will provide some Triple-A depth. Godoy’s 16 career MLB games (all with Seattle last year) don’t make for a lengthy Major League resume, but he does have eight years of minor league experience playing in the Cardinals farm system from 2012-19. While Godoy isn’t particularly known for his bat, he does have a .292/.338/.424 slash line over 412 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

Twins Showing Interest In Trevor Story

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2022 at 12:15pm CDT

12:15pm: Story has already turned down at least one nine-figure offer from a team that wanted him to change positions, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Story’s strong preference has been to remain at shortstop — a desire that the Twins can clearly accommodate if they’re comfortable with Story’s price tag.

12:30am: The Twins have completed a whirlwind series of trades over the past 36 hours, shipping out Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (briefly acquired for Garver) and prospect Chase Petty (their top pick from last summer’s draft) while acquiring Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez and a pair of pitching prospects. It’s a dizzying gambit, but it’s quite likely that Minnesota is only getting started. That frenzy cleared roughly $41MM from the Twins’ books, and their 2022 payroll is at a projected $94MM presently — about $40MM shy of their franchise-record.

One area the Twins could look to spend some of the money saved in that Donaldson swap is back at shortstop, where they briefly filled a need via the acquisition of Kiner-Falefa before sending him to the Yankees in tonight’s Donaldson blockbuster. To that end, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have been in touch with the representatives for free-agent shortstop Trevor Story.

That Kiner-Falefa’s time with the Twins proved to be only a day was surely music to the ears of Story’s agents. The Yankees had made clear that they planned to eschew a big-name signing at shortstop, instead preferring a more short-term bridge to top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. The trade of Kiner-Falefa not only gives the Twins a potential opening at shortstop — though it should be noted that Urshela can handle that position if needed — but also freed up some additional money to spend.

Looking past the $94MM projected on their 2022 books, the Twins only have about $39.5MM in guarantees on the 2023 ledger. They’ll quite likely pick up the $12MM option on the newly acquired Gray, but even still, that leaves ample room for another weighty salary — particularly since Minnesota will have a fairly light arbitration class in 2023. By the time 2024 rolls around, the Twins have less than $20MM in guaranteed money on the books. Again, that number will jump due to arbitration and, more notably, the $10MM and $10.5MM options they hold on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Even with those contracts, a Story-sized salary could easily be accommodated.

The 29-year-old Story had something of a disappointing season overall, as an elbow issue impacted him at the plate and dragged down his throwing ability in the field. That said, Story’s .251/.329/.471 slash and 24 home runs in 595 plate appearances were still solid, and he has a track record of strong production on both sides of the ball. Dating back to 2018, he’s a .281/.348/.532 hitter with 107 home runs and 85 steals in 2166 plate appearances. Hitters who call Coors Field their home tend to have pronounced splits that draw the ire of skeptics, but Story has been about 17% better than league average with the bat since ’18 even after weighting for his home park (117 wRC+).

Defensively, Story’s 2021 was something of a mixed bag. Both Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.6) felt he was characteristically strong with the glove, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged him at a career worst mark of minus-7. Outside of that one OAA mark, though, Story has a sterling defensive reputation and the gaudy metrics to match. He ranks seventh in all of Major League Baseball, regardless of position, with 69 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2016. His 15.4 UZR in that time isn’t quite so dominant but still ranks 41st among all big leaguers, and OAA feels he’s been a strong defender outside of 2021 (+18 dating back to 2016).

As previously alluded to, Minnesota needn’t necessarily feel obligated to make a big splash at shortstop. Urshela can man the position at a satisfactory level, and they have minor leaguer Jose Miranda, who exploded into top-100 prospect territory with a massive .344/.401/.572 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. Miranda is knocking on the door to the big leagues as it is, and his best position is widely considered to be third base. That said, there’d be little harm in getting him a further look in the Majors, and the depth afforded by having each of Urshela, Story, Polanco, Miranda and Luis Arraez would be enviable.

Whether Story ultimately lands in Minnesota, the Twins will apparently be involved in the bidding to an extent. The largest free-agent contract the Twins have ever given out was Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM contract, and Story could well topple that mark this winter, wherever he signs. With Donaldson off the books, Byron Buxton signed to a seven-year/$100MM contract and a generally clean payroll slate after the ’23 season, Minnesota can afford to make a splash on just about any free agent that’s left on the market. That doesn’t make them any kind of lock to ultimately sign Story or another big-ticket free agent, but the Twins are making things interesting after laying largely dormant prior to the lockout.

Twins, A’s Have Discussed Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2022 at 12:07pm CDT

Continuing on with the frenetic pace they’ve set in recent days, the Twins have been discussing trade possibilities with the Athletics, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Minnesota and Oakland have discussed scenarios that would send lefty Sean Manaea or right-hander Frankie Montas to the Twins.

The Twins and A’s were logical trade partners coming out of the lockout, given Minnesota’s dire need for rotation help and the fact that Oakland had at least three starters expected to be available: Manaea, Montas and the since-traded Chris Bassitt (who was dealt to the Mets this weekend). The Twins have already upgraded their starting staff by plucking Sonny Gray from the Reds in Sunday afternoon trade, but there are still clear holes to fill in a rotation that presently includes Gray, Dylan Bundy and youngsters Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.

Either Manaea or Montas would further deepen a rapidly changing Twins roster. The former figures to be more attainable and have a lower price tag than the latter, as Manaea will be a free agent at season’s end. Montas, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

A former No. 34 overall draft pick, the 30-year-old Manaea has come roaring back from 2018 shoulder surgery to reestablish himself as a quality big league starter. Since returning late in the 2019 season, Manaea has tossed 263 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a fantastic 5.2% walk rate. Manaea made 11 starts during the Covid-shortened 2020 season and took the ball 32 times last year while racking up 179 1/3 innings, so the shoulder issues that derailed his 2018-19 seasons look to be in the past. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.2MM this coming season.

Montas, who’ll turn 29 in a week, just wrapped a career year with the A’s. The 2021 season was the first time in Montas’ big league career that he crossed the 100-inning threshold, but he nearly jumped all the way to 200 frames, racking up 187 innings of 3.37 ERA ball to go along with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Montas averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and posted huge marks in swinging-strike rate (13.7%) and opponents’ chase rate (35.9%). He’s projected to earn $5.2MM in arbitration this year.

It should be noted that Montas did miss significant time in 2019 after being hit with an 80-game PED suspension, and he struggled considerably in his return to the mound in 2020 (5.60 ERA in 53 innings/11 starts). That said, Montas has consistently posted strong strikeout and walk rates in his big league career and would, as is the case with the recently acquired Gray, give the Twins a key rotation piece for at least the next two seasons. Accordingly, the cost to acquire him figures to be higher than the cost to acquire Manaea.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said in the hours since completing last night’s Josh Donaldson deal with the Yankees that Minnesota has many irons in the fire, and talks with the A’s figure to just be one of many possibilities they’re exploring. Minnesota has, in the past few days, traded Mitch Garver to Texas in a deal to acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa; traded pitching prospect Chase Petty to the Reds to acquire Gray; and traded Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees in a deal that netted Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and upwards of $40MM in salary relief. They’ve since been rumored to have interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story. That, paired with the acquisition of Gray and talks with Oakland, show that even amid a dramatic roster reshaping, Minnesota is aiming to contend in the AL Central for the 2022 season.

Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2022 at 11:57am CDT

The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains. As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal. The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins. The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s. Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago. Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Yankees Acquire Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ben Rortvedt From Twins For Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela

By Mark Polishuk | March 13, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

The Bronx Bombers’ quiet offseason has come to an abrupt end, as the Yankees and Twins have combined on a blockbuster of a five-player deal. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Ben Rortvedt are all heading to the Yankees, while the Twins will pick up catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela. The $50MM still owed on Donaldson’s contract is being entirely absorbed by the Yankees, as per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. To create space on their 40-man roster, New York placed reliever Zack Britton on the 60-day injured list.

Donaldson has a five-team no-trade clause, though it isn’t known if the Yankees were one of the five clubs on his list, or if he waived his clause to head to New York. The Yankees will pay a $2MM assignment bonus due to the trade, and in being moved, the $16MM club option on Donaldson for 2024 now becomes a mutual option with a $6MM buyout, rather than an $8MM buyout.

This gigantic deal creates a shakeup on the rosters of both clubs, and ends Kiner-Falefa’s Minnesota tenure after just one day. The Twins only acquired Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers for Mitch Garver on Saturday, but now the former Gold Glover has been flipped as part of a much bigger deal that sees the Twins move a major salary off their books. Another flip doesn’t appear to be forthcoming, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal says the Twins plan to use Sanchez behind the plate.

After a winter of speculation about how the Yankees would address their infield, the Bronx Bombers have now installed Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman and Kiner-Falefa as their new shortstop. (New York was linked to IKF earlier this winter, so the team has finally landed him even after his brief stopover in Minnesota.) DJ LeMahieu may float between first and second base, sharing time with Gleyber Torres at the keystone and Luke Voit at first base. The DH spot is also a possibility to give at-bats to players, depending on how much outfield time Giancarlo Stanton can handle.

All this to be said, we certainly can’t rule out the Yankees making yet another big splash, since the team has been linked to both Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson to address first base. If either of those players are obtained, Voit would certainly look like an immediate trade candidate, and even dealing LeMahieu or Torres could be a possibility depending on what direction the Yankees wish to take.

Donaldson is no stranger to the AL East, having enjoyed some of his best years (including his 2015 MVP season) while playing with the Blue Jays from 2015-18. The 36-year-old’s production hasn’t declined much since those years in Toronto, as while injury concerns have cropped up as Donaldson has gotten deeper into his 30s, Donaldson is still a dangerous bat. The third baseman hit .247/.352/.475 with 26 homers over 543 PA with the Twins last season, and continued to post his usual elite-level hard-contact and walk rates.

Defensive metrics are mixed on Donaldson’s third base glovework, but New York is hoping that Kiner-Falefa can pick up any defensive slack on the left side of the infield. The winner of the AL Gold Glove Award as a third baseman with Texas in 2020, Kiner-Falefa has also been impressive over 1498 career innings shortstop in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+14) and UZR/150 (+1.7) metrics, though the Outs Above Average metric (-7) was very down on his shortstop glovework in 2021. The Fielding Bible ranked Kiner-Falefa third among all shortstops in their voting for the 2021 season.

Kiner-Falefa is controlled through two more arbitration seasons, thus essentially making him a bridge to what the Yankees hope will be their shortstop of the future. All winter long, New York has reportedly resisted getting into the hunt for the top tier of the free agent shortstop market due to the team’s belief in star prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. With Peraza maybe approaching his MLB debut as early as this season and Volpe perhaps coming by 2023, the Yankees wanted to retain flexibility at shortstop rather than lock themselves into a ten-year commitment to a Carlos Correa or a Corey Seager.

Rortvedt is the least famous of the five names involved in the swap, and he hit only .169/.229/.281 over his first 98 PA in the majors, all with Minnesota last season. While Rortvedt has hit better in the minors, he isn’t expected to be another Sanchez at the plate, as the Yankees seem to intend Rortvedt to platoon with Kyle Higashioka in something of a defense-first tandem. Given all the other pop in New York’s lineup, focusing on glovework behind the plate seems like a fair tradeoff, particularly since Sanchez’s defense has been a topic of controversy for years amongst Yankees fans. Again, it isn’t out of the question that the aggressive Yankees could make another move to add a more proven veteran to the catching mix.

Payroll-wise, the Yankees take on Donaldson’s $50MM, the projected $4.9MM for Kiner-Falefa’s 2022 salary, and Rortvedt’s minimum salary. Urshela’s $6.55MM salary for 2022 and Sanchez’s projected $7.9MM salary come off the books, leaving the Bombers with a luxury tax number of roughly $242.7MM (according to Roster Resource). This is well over the new $230MM tax threshold but under the “second tier” of $250MM that would trigger a stiffer financial penalty for the Yankees. The club made a point of ducking under the luxury tax line in 2021 and thus resetting its clock, so the Yankees would only have to pay a first-timer penalty of 20 percent on the overage for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM.

The savings are much more profound for the Twins, who get Donaldson off their books and have now freed up some longer-term payroll space. According to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link), the Twins didn’t pick up Kiner-Falefa with the intention of immediately moving him again, yet the club was ultimately swayed at the Yankees’ offer to take all of Donaldson’s contract.

This isn’t to say that Minnesota is necessarily looking to tear down the roster, as much of Donaldson’s 2022 salary space has now been filled by Sanchez, Urshela, and even Sonny Gray, acquired earlier today from the Reds. After spending just under $100MM on payroll in 2021, the Twins have around $94.2MM on the books for 2022 at the moment, giving them more space for other moves if they even approach their $125MM-$131MM full season payrolls from the 2018-19 seasons.

Owner Jim Pohlad said last summer that the Twins wouldn’t be rebuilding, and while it seems as though the Twins are still firmly planning to contend in 2022, they’ve created more maneuverability for themselves in landing Sanchez (one remaining year before free agency) and Urshela (two years of control). Should things go south for the Twins in 2022 as they did in 2021, therefore, the team may be able to more cleanly pivot towards moving players at the trade deadline, and perhaps at that point consider a larger-scale rebuild.

It wasn’t long ago that Sanchez was seen as a key to the Yankees’ future, breaking out with huge power numbers that seemed to put him next in the long line of big-hitting Bronx catchers. However, Sanchez has produced average-to-mediocre numbers in three of the last four years, leading to speculation this past fall that Sanchez could even be a non-tender candidate. Clearly, hanging onto the catcher proved worthwhile for the Yankees, as they were able to make him a big trade chip in this major swap.

Between his defensive issues and his evolution into a three-true-outcomes type of player, it remains to be seen if Sanchez can find a fresh start in Minneapolis. He wouldn’t be the first player to blossom outside of the New York pressure cooker (his new teammate Gray is a prime example), and Sanchez still provides strong power and on-base numbers. Sanchez still makes plenty of hard contact, but just making that contact has been a persistent issue, as Sanchez has been one of the game’s more strikeout-prone hitters for five seasons running.

Assuming the Twins do indeed plan to keep Sanchez, he’ll pair with Ryan Jeffers (a more defensive-minded catcher) as Garver’s replacement. Elsewhere in the infield, a situation that seemed settled with Kiner-Falefa’s addition is now once again thrown up in the air.

While Urshela has some experience as a shortstop, it seems much more likely that he’ll take Donaldson’s spot at third base, as the hot corner is Urshela’s usual position and he has shown himself to be a very solid defender. Urshela basically came out of nowhere to post huge numbers for the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, quickly making himself an infield regular amidst several injuries to New York’s roster during the 2019 campaign.

However, Urshela ran into some health issues himself this past season, missing time amidst a COVID-19 outbreak in the New York clubhouse and then a left hamstring strain. This could explain Urshela’s dropoff to a modest .267/.301/.419 slash line and 14 home runs over 442 PA, while his walk and strikeout rates plummeted from their 2020 levels.

The Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from both of their new players, and there is some obvious upside to the club’s plan. Should Sanchez and Urshela return to their 2019 form, that will be more than make up for the loss of Donaldson’s bat. The scope of this deal would seem to hint that at least one notable follow-up move will be coming, as the Twins now again need to address a shortstop void that Kiner-Falefa had seemingly filled. Jorge Polanco could move back to shortstop in a pinch but the Twins prefer him as a second baseman going forward.

Since Urshela can at least handle shortstop on a part-time basis, the Twins could also opt to land another third baseman, thus allowing for an Urshela/Polanco timeshare at shortstop and a Polanco/Luis Arraez split at second base. Daniel Robertson and Tim Beckham are also in camp on minor league deals for further infield options, and infield prospect Jose Miranda’s big 2021 season has put him on the verge of his MLB debut.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa were being dealt to the Yankees, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that Sanchez and Urshela were going to Minnesota. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported Rortvedt’s inclusion in the trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Twins Acquire Sonny Gray From Reds

By TC Zencka | March 13, 2022 at 12:34pm CDT

The Reds and Twins are in agreement on a deal headlined by right-hander Sonny Gray, moving from Cincinnati to Minnesota, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Along with Gray, the Twins will receive minor league right-hander Francis Peguero. In return, the Reds will acquire the 26th overall selection of the 2021 draft, right-hander Chase Petty. Both teams have announced the deal, making it official.

This deal has the potential to shake up both central divisions. The Twins, for their part, look much improved with the addition of Gray, and they might not be done adding starters, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). With Kenta Maeda out after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the rotation was easily the Twins’ biggest area of need moving forward.

Although the Twins bottomed out last year, which led to the sell-off of a number of high-profile names, much of the talent that took them to the playoffs in 2019 and 2020 remains. Gray represents a pseudo replacement for the biggest departure, Jose Berrios, who was traded to the Blue Jays in July. Though Berrios was a homegrown star – and he’s four and a half years younger than Gray – in the short term, the 32-year-old Gray is certainly capable of holding the line in what was once Berrios’ rotation spot.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey praised Gray for a makeup that’s “off the charts,” mentioning his ability to “anchor the rotation” and set an example for younger starters, per this video clip from Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. The player, the personality, and the two years of team control made Gray a natural target for this Twins’ squad.

Berrios is the broader talent of the two, but one could argue that Gray is a better fit for this particular Twins roster because of the versatility his contract affords them. Despite a $1MM bump to his contract because of the trade, tweets Nightengale, Gray’s 2022 salary still clocks in at a mere $10.7MM. Furthermore, the Twins now hold an affordable $13MM club option for 2023. That’s plenty economical for a rotation arm coming off a 3.3 rWAR/2.4 fWAR output over 135 1/3 innings spanning 26 starts.

Given the contract, the Twins can flip Gray again if they crater as they did in 2021, but if the club proves to be more competitive, Gray figures to be one of the reasons why. His strikeout numbers were down a touch from his career norms, down to a still-solid 27.0 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate also improved to 8.7 percent, and there’s little reason to think he can’t continue to be a solid mid-to-front-end arm.

Gray should be helped by moving from the Reds’ uneven defense to a fairly well-equipped defensive unit in Minnesota. If Byron Buxton stays healthy, and Josh Donaldson can avoid an age-related decline at third, the Twins ought to catch their share of baseballs, especially with Isiah Kiner-Falefa taking over at short.

In terms of the wider impact on Minnesota’s roster, the rotation doesn’t have much else in the way of sure things. Randy Dobnak was signed to a low-risk, long-term contract last winter, but the 27-year-old struggled mightily in 2021 and didn’t end up spending much time in the rotation. Dylan Bundy had a similar kind of year for the Angels. The 29-year-old has a longer track record, but no less uncertainty. Joe Ryan, are Bailey Ober are likeliest to fill out the middle of the rotation, with Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax also competing for an opportunity. That’s not a unit to set your hair on fire, but it’s getting closer.

The Twins, of course, not only get the most established arm in the deal, but they’re also getting Peguero, a 24-year-old reliever out of the Dominican Republic who finished last season in High-A. Peguero isn’t close to the prospect that Petty is, but he’s a flyer nonetheless who at least has a chance of becoming a late-inning bullpen arm. Peguero posted a 4.96 ERA over 32 2/3 innings last year, striking out 36 batters in 32 2/3 innings, picking up six saves.

Taking the aerial view, the AL Central continues to get more competitive. The Tigers and Twins have both made strides to challenge the White Sox, who had a relatively clear path to a division title in 2021. Whether this will be enough to get the Twins back to their 2019-20 level remains to be seen.

On the other side, the Reds step further away from their short-lived identity as a free-spending all-out contender for the NL Central crown. The Reds spent aggressively to end their playoff drought prior to the 2020 season, and they succeeded in that measure, making the expanded playoffs as a 31-29 wild card team. They were shut out in their two playoff games, however. They actually improved by winning percentage in 2021, finishing the year with 83 wins, but out of the playoff money.

It’s tough to imagine the 2022 Reds doing even that well after subtracting Gray and Wade Miley from the rotation. Miley, of course, they gave away for nothing, letting division rival Chicago claim him off waivers. Miley may be a 35-year-old coming off a career year, but it still seems relatively short-sighted to let go of a starter who just posted a 5.9 rWAR season without netting even a lottery pick in return.

For Gray, at least, the Reds aren’t walking away empty-handed. Petty is a live-armed righty who can hit triple digits on the radar gun. As the Twins’ top draft pick in the 2021 draft, he comes with plenty of upside, but he’s also just a month out from turning 19. His future, therefore, comes with a wide range of potential outcomes. If nothing else, the Reds accomplished the goal of cutting money from their payroll while adding to the farm system.

Petty was the 7th-ranked prospect in the Twins’ system, per Baseball America, which marks both his fastball and slider as potential 70-grade offerings. He was starting games for the Twins and would continue to do so in 2022, but they saw Petty’s most likely future to be that of a “back-end reliever,” per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter). BA, similarly, writes that “Petty’s upside is significant, but his specific player demographic is inherently risky and he’ll need plenty of time to develop.”

The variability built into Petty’s future might make this trade a tough pill to swallow for Reds’ fans. In the short term, it’s fair to wonder if this deal drops the Reds behind even the Cubs in the overall hierarchy of the NL Central. They are firmly behind the Cardinals and Brewers, and still firmly ahead of the Pirates.

The coming weeks will tell a lot about how the Reds view this deal. If they are entering a full-blown rebuild, rumors about the availability of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will continue to swirl. If, however, the Reds view this deal as a calculated re-balancing of the books – in the vein of how leadership pitched the Raisel Iglesias trade last winter – the Reds might still have enough talent leftover in the rotation to hang around the NL Central race.

At this point, however, they will be relying on a relatively unproven collection of arms after Castillo and Mahle. It’s hard to see where the rotation can build on last year’s success without Gray and Miley unless Hunter Greene quickly emerges as a frontline arm. Vladimir Gutierrez held his own last year, but he’ll need to take another step forward to be anything more than a back of the rotation arm.

There is time left this offseason for the Reds to shift the narrative, but for the time being, this move will further the perception of the Reds as a cost-conscious also-ran more concerned with lowering payroll than truly competing. Critics will lump this deal in with the Iglesias and Tucker Barnhart trades as evidence of their penny-pinching. The Barnhart deal is defensible because of the presence of Tyler Stephenson, but the Iglesias deal ended up hurting the club more than they anticipated in 2021. If the rotation falls off as many expect it will, the Reds will have a hard time selling this move as an example of roster savvy.

AL Central Notes: Twins, IKF, Tigers, Anderson, Boyd, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 5:44pm CDT

The Twins and Rangers combined on one of the most interesting early moves of the post-lockout period, agreeing to a trade earlier today that will see Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez head to Minnesota, while catcher Mitch Garver was dealt to Texas. Speaking with reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) about the deal, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the Twins were first in touch about Kiner-Falefa before the lockout, and Garver wasn’t initially part of trade talks until it became that such a notable price was necessary to pry Kiner-Falefa away from the Rangers.

While the presence of Ryan Jeffers ultimately made Garver expendable, Minnesota now has a new everyday shortstop, and a player who has generally looked like one of the league’s better defensive players no matter where Texas lined him up on the diamond. Kiner-Falefa said he is happy to be getting an opportunity to start at what he considers his natural position of shortstop, and his addition means that the Twins can now keep Jorge Polanco at second base.

Twins Interested In Johnny Cueto

By Darragh McDonald | March 12, 2022 at 2:43pm CDT

Prior to the lockout, the busiest segment of the free agent market was starting pitching, with the majority of the top names flying off the shelves before the freeze on transactions in December. The top two remaining starters, Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, both signed the first full day after the lockout, leaving the top of the market picked clean. Earlier today, the Blue Jays signed Yusei Kikuchi, taking another appealing name off the board.

With many teams still in need of rotation upgrades, they will naturally be turning their attentions to the next tier of available hurlers, with the market for right-hander Johnny Cueto “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Twins are one of the clubs interested, according to Darren Wolfson of SKOR North.

The Twins made the playoffs in three out of the four seasons from 2017 to 2020, including back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020. But they followed that up with a miserable season in 2021 where just about everything went wrong. Various players dealt with serious injuries and many others underperformed, leading the club to drop to a record of 73-89 and finish in the basement of the AL Central. Despite that, the club has made it clear it intends to reload and compete again in 2022, and they showed evidence of that earlier today by acquiring Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers to be their shortstop.

However, the club’s most glaring need is the starting rotation. During last year’s disappointing campaign, they traded away Jose Berrios and J.A. Happ at the deadline. Then they lost Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery, who is hoping to be back in September. Also, Michael Pineda reached free agency at the end of the year.

Going into the offseason, the club was left with a rotation of talented but unproven youngsters, with Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan headlining that group. Just before the lockout, they added Dylan Bundy into the mix, though he’s coming off a miserable season of his own, putting up an ERA of 6.06 with the Angels. For a team with designs on competing, they’ll certainly need to look for upgrades.

Cueto is now a few years removed from his peak, but the 36-year-old could still be plenty useful, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored. Cueto threw 114 2/3 innings last year with an ERA of 4.08. His 20% strikeout rate was a few ticks below league average, but his 6.1% walk rate was quite strong. While he may not be the ace he once was, there are no aces left on the free agent market, meaning the Twins will have to be looking towards pitchers like Cueto to cobble a rotation together, unless they have enough trade chips remaining to build a rotation that way.

Twins Acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa For Mitch Garver

By Darragh McDonald | March 12, 2022 at 11:35am CDT

The Twins and Rangers are in agreement on a deal that will send infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Minnesota, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Kiner-Falefa and a prospect will head to Minnesota in exchange for catcher Mitch Garver, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Pitcher Ronny Henriquez is the prospect heading to Minnesota in the deal, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press.

For the Rangers, this is yet another headline-grabbing move in what has been a very busy offseason for the club. Prior to the lockout, they threw around big money to add various players, with the two biggest names being shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien. The addition of those two infielders, along with the impending arrival of prospect Josh Jung, led to immediate speculation that Kiner-Falefa could be a trade candidate. But when Jung underwent shoulder surgery last month, that seemed to swing the pendulum towards Texas keeping Kiner-Falefa as their everyday third baseman. However, that has now proven not to be the case, as he is headed for Minnesota.

The Twins had Andrelton Simmons as their primary shortstop last year. Despite showing the defensive skills he has long been known for, Simmons had a dismal year at the plate, hitting .223/.283/.274, wRC+ of 56. Yesterday, he signed with the Cubs for a modest $4MM salary, showing that the Twins weren’t terribly motivated to bring him back into the fold. With Kiner-Falefa, they’ve brought in a player with a similar profile to Simmons, but more reasons to be optimistic about his future performance. Like Simmons, Kiner-Falefa is a glove-first player, winning a Gold Glove in 2020 and finishing third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. His bat has been below average thus far in his career, having never put up a wRC+ higher than 94. However, he’s still relatively young, turning 27 later this month, compared to the 32-year-old Simmons. He also hit .271/.312/.357 last year for a wRC+ of 85, not great numbers but certainly better than what Simmons provided. He’s also projected for an arbitration salary of $4.9MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and comes with an extra year of control beyond that.

But in order to make that solid addition to their infield, the Twins have had to send a valuable player the other way. Garver had a tremendous breakout season in 2019, hitting .273/.365/.630, wRC+ of 155. That would be exceptional production for any player but was especially impressive for a catcher. Injuries limited him to just 23 games of anemic production in the shortened 2020 season, but he bounced back well last year. Despite still dealing with injuries and only playing 68 games, his 2021 line was .256/.358/.517, wRC+ of 137. Last year, the Rangers split the catching duties almost evenly between Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim, who put up wRC+ tallies of 60 and 64, respectively. Garver is capable of producing at a much higher rate, but comes with concerns given the injuries of the past few years, making him a high-risk, high-reward option for Texas. He won’t be a huge risk from a financial standpoint, however, as he’s projected for an arbitration salary of $3.1MM this year, with another year of control remaining after that.

The reason the Twins could afford to part with such a talented catcher as Garver was the emergence of Ryan Jeffers. Making his MLB debut in 2020, he played 26 games and hit .273/.355/.436, wRC+ of 120. In 2021, he got off to a rough start, hitting .147/.216/.176 before getting demoted at the end of April. After showing signs of improvement in Triple-A, he was recalled in June and hit .206/.277/.433 the rest of the way, good enough for a wRC+ of 92. Although that’s clearly a drop-off from Garver’s numbers, Jeffers is turning 25 years old in June and comes with five remaining years of control. The Twins clearly felt that it was worth taking the chance on the younger player as their regular catcher in order to upgrade their infield.

Of course, that’s not all the Twins added, as they also brought Ronny Henriquez over in the deal. The 21-year-old right-hander split last season between High-A and Double-A, making 16 starts in 21 total games. In 93 2/3 innings, his 4.71 ERA wasn’t especially impressive, but the Twins were surely intrigued by his 27.1% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, both of those being better than average. The club certainly needs arms after losing Jose Berrios to trade, Kenta Maeda to injury and Michael Pineda to free agency. Henriquez likely won’t provide immediate help in that regard, given that he’s never pitched above Double-A, but he could potentially be a factor later in the season.

Circling back to the Rangers, with Kiner-Falefa out of the picture and Jung on the shelf for around six months, they will have to decide what do about third base for this season. In-house options include Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, Yonny Hernandez and Sherten Apostel. They could also turn their attention towards outside addition, although a tweet from Jeff Wilson casts doubt about a pursuit of Kris Bryant.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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