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J.T. Realmuto

Rizzo: Nationals Unwilling To Meet Asking Price On Realmuto

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In a surprisingly candid interview with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo largely quashed rumors and speculation that have tied his team to star Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. According to Rizzo, the Nationals touched base with the Marlins on Realmuto’s availability but haven’t really circled back this season.

“They’ve got a great player in Realmuto,” said Rizzo. “They’re not going to sell him cheap. We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we’re not willing to meet that price. So unless something changes there, on their end, we’re going to go with [Matt] Wieters when he gets healthy and a combination of [Pedro] Severino and [Spencer] Kieboom to back him up.”

Washington’s offseason interest in Realmuto was reported on at length over the winter. Multiple offseason reports suggested that the Marlins asked the Nats for a package headlined by one of their two most-coveted outfield prospects, Victor Robles or Juan Soto, the latter of whom has exploded onto the scene in the Majors at the age of 19. Robles, meanwhile, has missed much of the season with a hyperextended elbow but is still considered by many to be among the game’s 10 best prospects.

While that’s a lofty asking price, to be sure, it’s also not difficult to see why the Marlins would hold Realmuto in such high regard. The 27-year-old batted .290/.337/.440 in 1124 plate appearances from 2016-17 and has taken his offensive game to new heights in 2018, raking at a .297/.355/.524 pace (143 OPS+, 140 wRC+). After missing nearly a month with a minor lower back injury early in the season, Realmuto has already belted nine homers, 15 doubles and three triples in just 232 plate appearances.

Beyond his offensive prowess, Realmuto is considered a strong defensive catcher. He’s thrown out 11 of the 26 runners who’ve attempted to steal against him for a career-best 42 percent caught-stealing rate, and he generally rates as an above-average pitch framer and pitch blocker, per Baseball Prospectus. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly when assessing his trade value, he is eminently affordable from a financial standpoint and can be controlled through the 2020 season. Realmuto is earning $2.9MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility and will be eligible twice more before reaching free agency in the 2020-21 offseason.

Catcher was the Nationals’ most glaring need in the offseason, but the team did surprisingly little to address the deficiency outside of a minor league deal for veteran Miguel Montero, who was quickly released after cracking the Opening Day roster. To Wieters’ credit, he looked to be in the midst of a potential rebound at the plate after a last year’s dreary .225/.288/.344 slash; through a small sample of 76 PAs early in 2018, Wieters hit .231/.342/.385 with three homers and vastly improved strikeout and walk rates. But, he’s now been on the shelf since May 11 due to a hamstring injury that required surgery.

There are other catching options on the trade market, of course. Wilson Ramos’ name figures to be oft-mentioned on the rumor circuit as the deadline approaches, and the Mets would presumably be open to flipping recently acquired Devin Mesoraco when they inevitably begin to trade veteran pieces. Other speculative options include Robinson Chirinos and Francisco Cervelli. Blake Swihart, too, will be a rumored possibility, though it’s more difficult to see a contending club acquiring him and immediately inserting him into a regular role behind the plate when he’s scarcely played there in 2018.

Nationals Recently “Checked In” On J.T. Realmuto

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The Nationals “checked in” on the availability of star Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto within the past couple of weeks, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest notes column, though it sounds as if little has changed since the offseason. The Marlins are still seeking a “haul” in exchange for Realmuto, which only makes sense given the 27-year-old’s brilliant start to the season. Heyman suggests that the Nats aren’t willing to meet the price at this time.

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length about a month ago, and Realmuto has maintained his strong play since that was written. Realmuto missed nearly a month to open the season thanks to a lower back issue, but he’s been among the game’s best-hitting catchers (if not the best-hitting catcher in the Majors) since being activated. In 179 plate appearances, he’s hitting .311/.376/.534 with six homers, 12 doubles and three triples. He’s also halted eight of 19 stolen-base attempts against him (42 percent) and turned in strong framing and blocking numbers, per Baseball Prospectus.

Given that terrific all-around profile, a modest $2.9MM salary in 2018 and an additional two years of club control beyond the current season, it’s no surprise that the Marlins were seeking a package of multiple young players headlined by an elite talent in the offseason. Reports at the time indicated that Miami was interested in both Victor Robles and meteoric rising star Juan Soto, who has shocked baseball by soaring from Class-A to the Majors in two months and raking at a .346/.443/.538 pace in his first 16 big league games — all at the age of 19. It’s hard to imagine that the asking price on Realmuto has done anything but increase.

Heyman writes that, perhaps unsurprisingly, the Nationals are currently planning to keep Soto in the Majors even when the rest of their outfield is healthy. Washington was loath to part with either Soto or Robles in a Realmuto deal this offseason, and one would have to imagine that Soto, at least, has firmly entrenched himself as an untouchable young talent in the eyes of the D.C. front office. Robles, meanwhile, has played in only four games this year due to a hyperextended elbow, but the Nats have to be dreaming of a controllable outfield anchored by that pair of exciting potential stars beginning no later than 2019.

Other clubs, too, seem likely to gauge the asking price on Realmuto as the trade deadline approaches. The Twins are without Jason Castro for the rest of the season following knee surgery, while more definitive contenders like the Rockies and Brewers have received little in the way of production from their backstops. The market will likely bear other options — Wilson Ramos chief among them — but barring another injury, Realmuto will inevitably be the prize of the trade market in terms of available catching talent. Of course, because the Marlins control him for another two seasons, they also have the luxury of holding onto him should no offers to their liking materialize. Realmuto’s trade value will scarcely diminish from July to November, and rival teams would again line up to express interest should the Marlins hang onto him and market him in the offseason.

Trade Candidate: J.T. Realmuto

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As the Marlins offloaded their fleet of talented outfielders over the winter, it began to feel inevitable that catcher J.T. Realmuto would be the next out the door. While there weren’t really any financial pressures at play — he’s earning just $2.9MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility — it stood to reason that the Miami organization might prefer to finish off a painful but necessary offseason and further build out its newly robust store of young talent.

Certainly, that seems to have been Realmuto’s hope. He asked for a trade even before Christian Yelich was moved and reiterated that stance thereafter. Given that stance, it seems unlikely that an extension will come together. The Marlins, likewise, are surely aware that the roster is unlikely to be competitive while they control Realmuto, who’s eligible for arbitration for two more seasons in the future.

Under the circumstances, it still feels more a question of when than whether the Fish will part with Realmuto. The coming trade deadline surely isn’t a hard stopping point, but it would be foolish for the organization not to market him vigorously. Dealing Yelich proved that the Marlins were ready to embrace a rebuild. Holding Realmuto over the winter does not indicate otherwise; rather, it showed that the club was also willing to exercise patience in achieving value for its best remaining assets.

While the decision not to move starter Dan Straily has not looked promising to this point — he’s struggling to keep the ball in the zone after a DL stint to open the year — the Marlins may yet be paid out for waiting on Realmuto, who has looked much better since his own return from the DL. Through 77 plate appearances, the 27-year-old has shown career-best form in walk rate (7.8%), strikeout rate (13.0%), and power (.206 ISO) while producing at an excellent .309/.382/.515 rate with the bat.

To be sure, Realmuto has not yet proven he can sustain that kind of productivity over the course of a full season. But it has not been BABIP-driven, as he’s carrying a reasonable .315 mark thus far in 2018. If anything, the Statcast results suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as Realmuto is credited with a lofty .410 xwOBA based upon the quality of his contact, handily outpacing his already-impressive .383 wOBA.

Regardless, Realmuto is immensely valuable even if he goes back to being a slightly above-average hitter, as he was over the prior two seasons. He’s youthful. He steals bases. He’s the most athletic catcher in baseball. He has long been lauded for his handling of an ever-changing Miami pitching staff.

If there’s a question — beyond whether he’s a useful or a very good hitter — it’s probably in the framing department. StatCorner has rated Realmuto as one of the worst catchers in the game at winning strikes for his pitchers. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, has identified significant improvement over the years and graded Realmuto quite well in this area last year. Without a clear consensus in the metrics, it’s tough to say anything conclusively, though perhaps potential acquiring teams would at a minimum expect to be able to draw more out of Realmuto in the framing department given his underlying physical tools.

Just how much value Realmuto can return will likely depend upon how he hits over the next two-plus months. Barring a serious injury or total collapse at the plate, though, he has already established himself as one of only a few young, everyday backstops in the game.

In this case, then, the Marlins will be marketing Realmuto not only as a mid-season upgrade but also as a solution for clubs that have future needs behind the dish. A high-quality, mid-prime catcher often costs quite a lot more than he’s set to receive. The Pirates seemingly got an appealing price when they promised Francisco Cervelli $31MM over three years in an extension. Russell Martin took down $82MM over a five-year term on the open market.

Starting catchers may not necessarily represent a traditional deadline asset class, but they’ve been moved before. Most recently, one-and-a-half affordable seasons of Jonathan Lucroy — then one of the game’s best and most-established backstops — were swapped (along with quality reliever Jeremy Jeffress) for two high-end prospects.

Teams interested in immediate catching help may have a few  other options. Wilson Ramos has been playing well and could be made available, though he’s more expensive now and will be a free agent after the season. Ditto, Lucroy. Perhaps the White Sox will dangle recent signee Welington Castillo, though he was evidently not strongly pursued by contenders over the offseason. The few poor-performing teams that possess established, controllable young catchers seem less likely to move them for a variety of reasons. With the Pirates and Braves contending to this point, some of the more appealing hypothetical rental targets (Cervelli, Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers) may not be available.

In this setting, Realmuto could be in quite some demand. On paper, the Red Sox, Brewers, and Angels have the immediate and long-term need for improvement. The Nationals are getting useful work from behind the dish for the time being, but may well end up needing an upgrade this summer and still lack a long-term solution behind the dish. Though the Astros have been well-served by Brian McCann, they’d be a good fit for the present and future. While the Mets just added Devin Mesoraco, he doesn’t seem particularly likely to be the answer there. A few other teams — the Twins come to mind — could also conceivably emerge as suitors as well.

That’s just a preliminary glance, of course. Injuries and other developments can and surely will change the picture over the coming months. Generally, though, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the Marlins will have a good chance to secure a significant return for Realmuto this summer. While clubs that tried to structure a deal for him over the winter proved unwilling to meet the lofty asking price, the pressures of the trade deadline could help enhance the leverage available to the Miami front office.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Activate J.T. Realmuto

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The Marlins announced today that they’ve activated catcher J.T. Realmuto from the 10-day disabled list. Realmuto, who opened the season on the shelf due to a lower back contusion, went 3-for-3 with a homer in his lone rehab game and will jump right into the mix in Miami, as he’s in the lineup tonight. Fellow catcher Chad Wallach was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans to clear a spot on the roster.

Realmuto, 27, was the subject of a cavalcade of trade rumors this offseason as the Marlins tore down the majority of their roster, trading away stars Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Realmuto’s agent reportedly made it clear to the club that he, too, would prefer a trade, but he instead remains on hand as perhaps the lone star left on a new-look roster.

Miami is off to a 4-12 start to the season, though the return of Realmuto should help to bolster the lineup. The 27-year-old has steadily improved in each of his seasons at the big league level and is now widely considered to be one of the game’s top all-around backstops. Last year, in a career-high 579 plate appearances, Realmuto hit .278/.332/.451 with 17 homers and eight steals while also controlling the running game well (32 percent caught-stealing) and delivering strong pitch-framing marks.

The Marlins control Realmuto through the 2020 season, and given the turnover elsewhere on the roster, it stands to reason that he could once again come up in trade talks this summer. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reported the other day that the Fish don’t have any current desire to shop Realmuto, though that could change, of course, if enough contending clubs are in need of catching help this summer. At the very least, one has to imagine that Miami president of baseball ops Michael Hill and the rest of the Marlins’ front office will be open-minded about the possibility of a trade — especially given the team’s poor start and their likely status as the NL East’s cellar dweller in 2018.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Realmuto, Moustakas, Machado, Donaldson

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The Mets made repeated inquiries on Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto during the offseason, says Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in a video tweet. They also asked the Marlins about Starlin Castro. However, at that point in the winter, the club had just traded Christian Yelich to the Brewers, and they had also unloaded the contracts of Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna; they weren’t looking to cut any more salary at that moment in time. While the Mets are prepared to roll with Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton for now, Rosenthal suggests that the club could attempt to revisit Realmuto discussions at some point.

More from Rosenthal…

  • Although it’s early, Rosenthal suggests that Mike Moustakas looks like a hot trade candidate, citing his physical condition and low salary as selling points for the Royals third baseman. According to GM Dayton Moore, Moustakas is “running as well as he ever has.” Rosenthal figures that Kansas city will be among the most active trade deadline sellers in July, and could also dangle southpaw Danny Duffy, second baseman Whit Merrifield and closer Kelvin Herrera.
  • The shifting power structure of Orioles ownership might affect the way the club approaches a potential Manny Machado trade, should they end up willing to deal him. Peter Angelos was always opposed to making trades with the division-rival Yankees, but the younger Angelos’ might not place such a restriction on the concept. There are a number of other reasons to throw cold water on the idea of a Machado-to-Yankees swap, as Rosenthal notes, such as the presence of Brandon Drury and the Yankees’ possible focus on pitching. Still, the idea seems more plausible now that Peter Angelos’ sons are more active in the running of the club.
  • One rival executive estimates that there are “tens of millions” of dollars riding on the health of Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson’s shoulder. Rosenthal posits that the former AL MVP will be much less valuable as a free agent if there are questions surrounding his ability to play third base; much of his value lies in his defensive prowess. Being viewed as a first base/DH type for the bulk of his remaining career could eliminate some NL teams as suitors, and it doesn’t help that Donaldson is about to turn 33.

East Notes: Sox, Ohtani, G. Torres, Hellickson, Realmuto, Mets

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Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani will start against the Red Sox on Tuesday. If the Sox had their druthers, though, it would be the other way around, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Boston, like just about every other major league team, courted Ohtani during his brief foray into free agency over the winter. The club showed Ohtani a 25-minute video presentation that prominently featured former Red Sox starter/slugger Babe Ruth, the most successful two-way player of all-time, as a recruiting tool. Ohtani is aiming to make a Ruthian impact as both a pitcher and a hitter in the majors, and so far he’s thriving on both ends. The Red Sox would have given Ohtani the opportunity to capitalize on his unique talents, as Silverman details, though he eliminated them (and most other clubs) from the process pretty quickly. “€œI wish we were in a position where we could have tackled that challenge,” said president Dave Dombrowski. “€œWe liked him a great deal, we thought very highly of him. I thought he was a legitimate two-way player.”€ Silverman’s piece, which contains more quotes from Dombrowski and senior vice president of personnel Allard Baird (who scouted Ohtani extensively from 2012-17), is worth checking out in full.

More from the East Coast…

  • Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson could take the ball for the Nationals on Monday when they open a series against the division-rival Mets, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com suggests. Righty A.J. Cole is penciled in at the moment, though signs are pointing to Hellickson making his Nats debut, Zuckerman explains. Promoting Hellickson, whom Washington signed to a minors deal before the season, would require the team to add him to its 40-man roster and jettison someone else. That wouldn’t be the out-of-options Cole, per Zuckerman, who expects him to move to the bullpen in the event of a Hellickson call-up. The 31-year-old Hellickson, a veteran of 197 starts, will earn a $2MM salary if he lands a spot with the Nats.
  • Manager Aaron Boone told Marc Carig of The Athletic and other reporters Sunday that it’s “possible,” albeit “not necessarily” probable, the Yankees will promote top prospect Gleyber Torres during the upcoming week. The Yankees would gain an extra year of control over the infielder by waiting until April 18 to promote him, though general manager Brian Cashman insisted during spring training that the team’s not concerned about that. Torres has made his case for a call-up at the Triple-A level since last year, having hit .333/.407/.496 in 135 plate appearances. If the 21-year-old does join the Yankees soon, he could be a factor at both second and third base.
  • The Marlins’ best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, is closing in on his 2018 debut. Realmuto, out since late March with a lower back injury, could rejoin the Marlins at the start of their nine-game road trip Monday, manager Don Mattingly informed Steve Dorsey of MLB.com and other reporters. And third baseman Martin Prado is “progressing” in his recovery from a left hamstring strain, per Mattingly, who added that the veteran could begin a rehab assignment soon. Prado, like Realmuto, hasn’t played yet this season.
  • The Mets activated first baseman Dominic Smith from the DL on Sunday and optioned him to Triple-A Las Vegas, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets. The former top 100 prospect had been dealing with a strained quad since the outset of spring training, thus putting the kibosh on his chances of winning a job in camp. Smith, 22, is now behind Adrian Gonzalez, Wilmer Flores (and maybe others) in the Mets’ first base pecking order.

Travis d’Arnaud To Undergo Tommy John Surgery; Kevin Plawecki Placed On Disabled List

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Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who’d previously been diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, the team announced on Friday.

Additionally, the Mets placed Kevin Plawecki on the 10-day DL due to a hairline fracture in his left hand, selected the contract of Jose Lobaton from Triple-A Las Vegas and optioned out righty Jacob Rhame in place of outfielder Brandon Nimmo.

To make room on the 40-man roster for Lobaton, d’Arnaud was placed on the 60-day DL. Plawecki is expected to be out three to four weeks, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Mike Puma of the New York Post).

Suffice it to say, it’s been a devastating 48 hours for the Mets, who just days ago were counting on d’Arnaud and Plawecki to shoulder the entirety of their catching work in 2018. Now, they’ll be without Plawecki for perhaps a month’s time, while d’Arnaud will be lost for the whole season. In their stead, the Mets will turn to Lobaton and Double-A backstop Tomas Nido to handle immediate catching duties. Lobaton is in tonight’s lineup.

However, for a club that started 10-1, the Mets understandably aren’t keen on merely relying on depth pieces and journeyman stopgaps as they await the return of Plawecki, who, while he has shown promise in the past, is no sure bet for a productive campaign.

To that end, the Mets are already on the lookout for catching help, per multiple reports. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets that a small-scale move — something along the lines of a pickup of recently designated veteran Miguel Montero — could be in play for the Mets. FanRag’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that the Mets are “seriously” looking at adding a catcher, though GM Sandy Alderson, at least publicly, spoke to the contrary (Twitter links via DiComo and Puma).

Alderson indicated that his club will “be aware” of what is available on the catching market but is not actively pursuing a Major League catching addition. Puma notes that Alderson did suggest that trades are more plausible early this season than in other years because of the number of teams that “aren’t trying that hard.”

One move that seems decidedly unlikely is a swap for J.T. Realmuto. DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey have both thrown significant cold water on the possibility, downplaying the notion that the Mets would be able to put together a sufficient package and also downplaying the Marlins’ willingness to move him. Healey notes that the Mets and Marlins haven’t spoken about Realmuto at all this week, noting that offseason talks for the star catcher failed to gain any traction.

More emphatically, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets that the Marlins don’t have any intention of dealing Realmuto while he’s rehabbing from injury and, in the grander scope of things, don’t even plan on making him available at all this season. It seems that the Fish would prefer to hold Realmuto through the end of the 2018 season and market him again next winter when a wider base of clubs could likely inquire about his services. Of course, such plans can always change at the deadline if a few contenders find themselves with an acute need, thus creating the basis for a bidding war, but for the time being it doesn’t sound as if a Realmuto trade is even worth speculating upon.

As far as depth options go, the Mets have already acted quickly to pursue one such addition. Former Mets backstop Johnny Monell announced today on Instagram that he’s signed a new minor league deal with the team and will return to the club. The 32-year-old logged 57 plate appearances for the 2015 Mets and is a lifetime .278/.350/.460 hitter in parts of five seasons in Triple-A, which is where he’ll be headed.

Injury Notes: Musgrove, Mercer, Wieters, Cruz, Realmuto, Yankees

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The Pirates announced today that right-hander Joe Musgrove has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Righty Clay Holmes, who’d previously been returned to Triple-A after serving as the 26th man for yesterday’s doubleheader, has been recalled. (Holmes’ optional assignment needn’t be for the typical 10-day minimum, as he’s replacing an injured player.) As MLB.com’s Adam Berry notes, the move seemed somewhat curious at first, as Musgrove had said he felt good physically not long before the announcement. But testing ended up revealing a strain, leading to the roster move.

Musgrove’s DL placement is retroactive three days, so he can be activated on April 9. In his place, the Pirates could turn to one of Steven Brault or Tyler Glasnow to start in Musgrove’s place on Thursday. At present, it doesn’t seem that the injury is serious. Musgrove was slowed by some shoulder troubles in Spring Training, so it seems the Bucs are just being cautious early in the season. Pittsburgh will also need to evaluate shortstop Jordy Mercer, who exited after jamming his finger into the bag when diving back to first on a pickoff attempt. The Pirates, so far, have only said that Mercer left the game with right hand/finger “discomfort.”

Some more injury news from around the league…

  • The Nationals recalled catcher Pedro Severino from Triple-A and placed Matt Wieters on the disabled list with a “mild left oblique strain.” Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post first reported today that Wieters was dealing with some type of injury and that Severino was headed to Atlanta in the event that Wieters needed a DL stint (Twitter links). Janes noted that Wieters didn’t take batting practice yesterday on his off day and “looked uncomfortable” throwing the ball back to the mound when catching warm-up pitches between innings for Nats starters. Both Wieters and Severino are coming off down seasons in 2017, as is Washington’s current backup, Miguel Montero.
  • The Mariners are leaning toward placing Nelson Cruz on the 10-day disabled list so they can have a full bench for their upcoming interleague series, manager Scott Servais said today in an appearance on Brock & Salk on 710 ESPN in Seattle (Twitter link via 710’s Brent Stecker). Cruz suffered an ankle injury when slipping on the dugout steps after a two-run homer over the weekend and had an MRI, though the results of that test haven’t been announced yet.
  • Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has progressed to the point where he’s been cleared to resume catching drills, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. However, Frisaro cautions that Realmuto will probably still require “a few more weeks” before he’s able to return from the lower back injury that landed him on the disabled list to open the 2018 campaign. Chad Wallach, Tomas Telis and Bryan Holaday have been doing the catching in Realmuto’s absence.
  • The Yankees announced today that they’ve voided right-hander Ben Heller’s optional assignment to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and instead placed him on the Major League 10-day disabled list with a bone spur in his right elbow. There’s no immediate timetable provided for Heller’s return, though he’ll benefit from being on the MLB disabled list instead of the minor league DL, as he’ll now gain big league service time (and be paid the pro-rated portion of the league minimum) while sidelined.

Marlins Place J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, J.T. Riddle On Disabled List

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TUESDAY: Realmuto and Riddle have indeed been placed on the DL, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter links).  Realmuto has a bone bruise, though the problem doesn’t sound too serious, as Frisaro said he is just “not being rushed” to be ready for Opening Day.

SATURDAY: The Marlins have placed right-handed starter Dan Straily on the 10-day disabled list, according to a report from Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. In a separate tweet, Spencer notes that catcher J.T. Realmuto and shortstop J.T. Riddle are also likely to begin the season on the DL.

Straily was recently diagnosed with a “slight elbow strain” after experiencing some elbow inflammation.While Straily has told reporters that he doesn’t feel any pain (h/t Joe Frisaro of MLB.com), he’ll reportedly refrain from throwing for the time being. His early-season absence is terrible news for an already-thin Marlins rotation that’s now projected to feature Jose Urena as its opening day starter. Roster Resource assumes that non-roster invite Jacob Turner and Rule 5 pick Elieser Hernandez will be forced into rotation roles at the season’s outset. The Marlins recently optioned offseason acquisition Sandy Alcantara to Triple-A, but it’s fair to think he could be next in line if any of the club’s starting five struggle out of the gates or suffer an injury.

Beyond rotation implications, Straily’s elbow troubles are of serious concern to a Marlins club that held onto him amidst an offseason fire sale of its top players. With Miami clearly beginning a full-scale rebuild, Straily was considered one of the club’s top remaining trade assets. Whether or not the club had any thoughts about trading him prior to this year’s deadline, a serious injury to his elbow would figure to take that option off the table.

Speaking of injured trade candidates, Realmuto hasn’t played since suffering a back contusion on March 11th. The Marlins catcher collided with Gleyber Torres on a pickoff play in the fourth inning of a Grapefruit League game. The injury hasn’t been described as serious in any outlets, so it’s certainly feasible that the club might simply be taking a cautious path with their most valuable asset. Still, a report that he’s likely to go on the DL means that any remaining chance him being traded prior to the season has reduced to near zero.

If Realmuto does end up going on the DL, non-roster invite Bryan Holaday could be called upon to fill in alongside usual backup Tomas Telis. Chad Wallach is already on the 40-man roster after being claimed from the Reds in November, so he presents another option for the Fish.

As for Riddle, he’s yet to play in a game this spring. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com recently reported that he was “a little sore” after ramping up throwing activity. Riddle underwent season-ending surgery last August after suffering a slap-tear in his left shoulder, but figured to be a part of the Marlins’ opening day roster. The odds of that are beginning to look grim. Reserve infield options for the club are few and far between, with non-roster invite Peter Mooney presenting the best option at present.

 

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

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