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J.T. Realmuto

Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

Quick Hits: Record Contracts, Springer, Realmuto, Robot Umpires, Royals Front Office Changes

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It was a busy filing day around baseball, with multiple arbitration records topped and 20 unresolved cases headed towards hearings if deals aren’t brokered in the coming days. Two notable record highs carried the day for players, noted MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Cody Bellinger took home the highest-ever salary for a first-time arb-eligible player, while Mookie Betts’ one-year, $27MM deal eclipsed Nolan Arenado’s previous record figure for a single season salary under the arbitration umbrella. Some significant battles loom, however…

  • George Springer will join the list of the top ten richest one-year contracts no matter how his case is resolved. J.T. Realmuto, meanwhile, has elevated his case to the level of political statement as he tries to set a new market for all catchers, per @fntsyradio host Craigh Mish. Yasmani Grandal made a similar case last year in justifying his decision to accept a single season deal in Milwaukee over a multiyear offer from the Mets. Hard to know if Grandal moved the line for everyone, but it certainly paid off for him.
  • It’s time to cede the battle against robot umpires, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. “This. Is. Happening,” writes Stark, and perhaps as early as 2022. The mental games used to inch the strike zone this way or that has long been a tool of the game’s best – from the hitters whose impeccable eye define it, to the pitchers’ whose pinpoint control push to expand it – but an automated zone will all but abolish the in-game politicking of the strike zone, giving hitters a new advantage they have long been without: certainty. Robot umpires will define the strike zone with better precision than their carbon-based forerunners – but first the humans must decide what they want that strike zone to be. For those particularly fond of strike zone drama, appreciate it now, because deciding on the parameters of the automated zone might be one of the last great strike zone debates before the robots take over.
  • The Royals announced a number of changes to their baseball ops department on Friday, mostly in the form of new hires and promotions (Nick Kappel of Royal Rundown provides the full list). Notables include Rustin Sveum, son of Dale, promoted to minor league video coordinator, former Tampa Bay Ray Damon Hollins returned for an 11th season in Kansas City as the Coordinator of Outfield, Base Running, and Bunting, and the famously high-stockinged Jason Simontacchi named Pitching Coordinator after two years assisting the role.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Phillies Discussing Extension With J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies have been “quietly trying to” negotiate a contract extension with star catcher J.T. Realmuto and his representatives, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports.  It isn’t known how far along in the process the two sides are, though Salisbury cautions that a deal might not be completed until later in the offseason for a variety of reasons.

It isn’t any secret that the Phils are hoping to keep Realmuto over the long term, as GM Matt Klentak stated that sitting down with Realmuto about a new contract was “one of our offseason goals.”  Realmuto is only under team control through 2020, and is slated to be one of the most sought-after members of next winter’s free agent class unless the Phillies can lock him up in the interim.

Realmuto is projected to earn $10.3MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, a more-than-reasonable sum for the sport’s best all-around catcher.  That one remaining arb year, however, could also factor into extension talks, as Salisbury suggests that the Phillies might prefer to work out Realmuto’s 2020 salary first rather than fold 2020 into a multi-year arrangement.  The average annual value of any contract is counted as a player’s luxury tax number, and thus the Phillies would surely want to keep Realmuto in the $10.3MM range for 2020 in order to give them more potential room to spend this season without crossing the $208MM luxury tax threshold.  A Realmuto extension (and subsequent higher AAV) therefore wouldn’t kick in until 2021 — Salisbury observes that Jake Arrieta and David Robertson will both be off the Phillies’ books at that point, allowing for more spending flexibility.

This isn’t to say that the tax threshold is necessarily a major concern for Philadelphia at the moment.  Owner John Middleton has suggested in the past that the Phils would be willing to pay the luxury tax if it meant adding the final pieces to a World Series contender, but not for “a little gain,” or “a better chance to be the second wild-card team.”  As presently constructed, the Phillies have a lot of work to do in order to approach title contention, so while Klentak and company certainly seem poised to be aggressive in the wake of a disappointing 2019 season, it seems like the club will stop short of exceeding the $208MM figure this winter.

Roster Resource projects the Phillies’ luxury tax number at slightly beyond $186.34MM, and that figure could certainly drop based on some rumored moves — potential non-tenders or trades of Maikel Franco ($6.7MM in arbitration) or Cesar Hernandez ($11.8MM), for instance.  That leaves the team with plenty of space to acquire multiple players, perhaps the starting pitching upgrades that seem to be a clear need.

The majority of contract extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training or even slightly beyond Opening Day, as teams generally prefer to get their offseason business completed before turning to in-house matters.  Though there is something of a ticking clock on Realmuto given that he is only a Phillie for one more season, the All-Star catcher has himself expressed interest in remaining with the team, so both sides would seem to have mutual interest in completing a new deal.

J.T. Realmuto Will Have Surgery To Repair Meniscus

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Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto will undergo a procedure to clean up the meniscus in his right knee, manager Gabe Kapler announced Wednesday (Twitter link via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). With the Phillies formally eliminated from postseason contention, he’ll go under the knife now rather than play out the season’s final series. There are no long-term concerns associated with the operation, and Realmuto is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training.

The surgery means that Realmuto’s season will come to a close with a strong .275/.328/.493 batting line in his first year with the Phils. Realmuto slugged 25 homers, 36 doubles and three triples over the course of 538 plate appearances while serving as something of an iron man behind the dish; no one in baseball has caught more than the 1139 innings that Realmuto did in 2019. The volume of that workload makes his output at the plate all the more impressive and heightens the value of his superlative defense. Realmuto threw out a ridiculous 47 percent of base thieves in 2019 and ranked among the best in the league in terms of pitch blocking and pitch framing.

Put simply, Realmuto is arguably the game’s best catcher. Phillies general manager Matt Klentak recently lauded Realmuto’s overall contributions and was rather candid in suggesting that an extension for the 28-year-old All-Star will be one of the organization’s priorities over the winter. The Phils control Realmuto through the 2020 season, at present, and he’ll command a sizable raise on this year’s $5.9MM salary in arbitration over the winter. Realmuto has voiced his own interest in signing a long-term pact to remain with the Phillies, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if the two sides ultimately hammer out a deal between now and Opening Day 2020.

J.T. Realmuto To Undergo MRI On Knee

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Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is dealing with a right knee issue that will require an MRI, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. Realmuto felt a “popping” in the back of his knee during the Phillies’ blowout loss to the Indians on Sunday, though the belief is that he’s not battling a significant injury, Zolecki writes.

The Phillies are just about done in the National League, where they’re six games back of a wild-card spot as the final week of the season begins. Considering the franchise oversaw an ultra-aggressive winter but is now days away from increasing its playoff drought to eight years, it’s fair to say this season has been a letdown for Philly. However, last offseason’s trade for Realmuto – previously a star with the division-rival Marlins – has been anything but a disappointment. Realmuto has been the game’s premier catcher for the second straight year, having parlayed quality offense, terrific base running and defensive virtuosity into 5.6 fWAR/4.3 bWAR through 593 plate appearances.

The Phillies have seemingly little to play for at this point, which figures to increase their cautiousness in regards to Realmuto’s health. He’s slated to enter his final season of arbitration control in 2020, but the Phillies have made it clear that they want to extend the franchise backstop before a potential trip to free agency in another year-plus. Realmuto’s future is one of the key issues general manager Matt Klentak & Co. will address in the offseason.

Matt Klentak On Realmuto, Deadline, Pitching, Kapler & Staff

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While the Phillies aren’t buried yet, their season is hanging on by a thread. Against that backdrop, GM Matt Klentak addressed a variety of topics yesterday with reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

Looking forward, Klentak spoke glowingly of backstop J.T. Realmuto, whose big season has been a bright spot — and will likely prompt extension talks this winter. The Phillies aren’t shying away from making their intentions known.

Per Klentak:

“I think J.T. has had a phenomenal season. When we acquired him, I declared him the best catcher in baseball. He’s been better than that. He’s been everything we could have asked for. I think it’s reasonable to expect that one of our offseason goals will be to address his contract situation and whether we line up or not remains to be seen. But he has done nothing to change our belief in him or our desire to make him a Phillie for the foreseeable future.”

Unsurprisingly, much of the discussion looked back — and not necessarily at the positive aspects of the season. Klentak was probed in particular regarding the club’s quiet mid-season roster-building efforts. He explained that the organization started with a sober assessment of its “place in the standings” and injury outlook.

From there, it was simply a matter of assessing the market and “mak[ing] judgments.” Klentak cautioned against putting too much focus on the fact that the organization did not end up parting with major talent in any deals. Getting something for (almost) nothing is laudable, after all. As Klentak put it: “I understand that sometimes what you give up can serve as a proxy for aggressiveness or intent but I think there’s also a value in reading a market and trying to make the best deals that you can.”

As it turned out, said Klentak, the organization was able to secure useful players over the summer. He cited Corey Dickerson’s productive hitting and the “meaningful innings” thrown by relievers Mike Morin and Blake Parker, while explaining that starter Jason Vargas “has done largely what we’ve asked him to do, which was take the ball every day and keep us in the game.” Ultimately, Klentak said, the group of acquired players “may not have been household names, but I think most of them have performed in such a way that they’ve delivered what we hope they’d deliver.”

The rotation was a particular focus, with reporters asking about the club’s decision to pass on mid-season signee Dallas Keuchel, who has pitched well for the division-rival Braves. Klentak acknowledged, generally, that the organization will always “look at the reasons we made or didn’t make decisions and try to learn from it.”

In this case, Klentak indicated, the club felt not only that the 2018 starting staff was “healthy and effective,” but that it could take another step forward:

“There’s no question that we bet on some improvement from some of those players based on what they had shown in 2018, based on their ages, their development curve, that we thought there would be more improvement than what we’ve seen. It’s hard to look back and second-guess that thought process. It’s easy to look back and second-guess the results, just like many Phillies fans have second-guessed.”

Needless to say, the outlook of the rotation in 2020 and beyond figures to be an area of focus over the winter. There’ll be some work to do on the position-player side as well, but the Phillies face an abundance of pitching questions. Just how the front office will go about answering them remains a topic for another day.

There was also plenty of chatter regarding manager Gabe Kapler and his coaching staff. Kapler is “doing a very good job” overall, said Klentak, who said “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” While the results have trended downward in the second half of the season, Klentak says that he has observed “subtle improvements” in players that were at least partially attributable to the work of the uniformed staff.

Klentak also defended pitching coach Chris Young, who was elevated to the role over predecessor Rick Kranitz — who ended up taking the same job for the aforementioned Braves staff. “I think he and our group have made a lot of improvements along the way,” said Klentak. “But I understand why when a season has gone the way that it does his name is going to be in the paper.”

Ultimately, the Phils aren’t ready to make any final decisions about what kinds of changes will be made over the winter. “Until we play the last game of 2019, we’re not going to start talking about 2020 yet,” Klentak said.

Phillies Will Pursue Realmuto Extension In Offseason

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Although the Phillies are hanging in the National League wild-card race as time runs out in the regular season, it seems fair to say this year hasn’t quite gone according to plan for the club. After missing the playoffs for the seventh straight time in 2018, the Phillies reeled in more established talent than anyone over the winter, with star catcher J.T. Realmuto among several big names the team added. Some of those pickups haven’t produced as hoped, which helps explain why the Phillies are 3 1/2 games back, but Realmuto has more than held up his end of the bargain.

Acquired from the division-rival Marlins last February, Realmuto has been the game’s foremost backstop for the second straight season. The 28-year-old hasn’t been as formidable at the plate as he was in 2018, but his .277/.328/.496 line with 25 home runs in 576 PA is well above average for his position. And when the athletic Realmuto has gotten on, he has graded as one of FanGraphs’ premier base runners.

Of course, Realmuto’s value extends well beyond what he’s capable of doing on offense. He’s also a world-class defender, one who has thrown out an eye-popping 43-of-91 would-be base stealers this year. Realmuto’s 47 percent caught-stealing rate is good for first in the game, while he comes in third overall in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

The all-around package Realmuto has given the Phillies this year has been worth 5.7 fWAR/4.4 bWAR, and it’s possible he’ll draw some NL MVP consideration as a result. Regardless, the Phillies love what they’ve seen, and they’re hopeful their union with Realmuto will last for a while. General manager Matt Klentak confirmed as much as a guest on MLB Network reporter Jon Heyman’s podcast.

Asked if the Phillies will work to extend Realmuto, Klentak told Heyman: “I think it’s fair to speculate that that’ll be one of our offseason priorities this year,” adding: “We hope he’s a guy who’ll be wearing a Phillies uniform for a long, long time. It’s something we”ll address this offseason, and hopefully we’ll be able to line up. We’ll see.”

Klentak also heaped praise on the well-rounded Realmuto for his contributions, saying: “There’s really nothing on the field that this guy can’t do. He has the best foot speed of any catcher in baseball — he doesn’t run like a catcher at all — he hustles all the time. He’s a really good fit for our city, with his style of play. In the second half, he’s been on fire at that plate. He was maybe more neutral in the first half, but in the second half he’s carried us at times. And obviously the defense is probably the separator. Not only the framing improvements, but also his ability to gun down runners. It’s a joke how good this guy is behind the plate — how quick he gets rid of the ball and how frequently he’s putting it right on the bag for our middle infielders to drop the tag down.”

It’s clear Philadelphia’s aim is to lock up Realmuto, though it’s not at immediate risk of seeing him walk. He’ll be controllable for another year via arbitration, where he’ll surely get a sizable raise on this season’s $5.9MM extension if the two sides don’t line up on a new deal. Realmuto, for his part, already indicated back in June that he’d be open to an extension. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained then, Realmuto shouldn’t have difficulty landing a lucrative contract of at least four years.

NL East Notes: Realmuto, Mattingly, Mets

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Here’s the latest on a trio of clubs from the NL East:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has proven to be one of the most valuable acquisitions of last offseason, suggested back in July that he’d be open to signing an extension with the club. While a deal hasn’t come together yet, it looks as if the team’s interested in locking up Realmuto for the long haul, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Lauber notes Realmuto could soon become the game’s latest nine-figure catcher, which would place him in company with the likes of the Giants’ Buster Posey and now-retired Twins icon Joe Mauer. Realmuto, a former Marlin, has been superb in 2019 – his age-28 campaign – and has continued to make a case for one of the richest paydays in the history of his position. With just one more season of control left after this one, the Phillies will have to act fast if they’re going to prevent Realmuto from leaving over the next year-plus. Having traded elite pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto over the winter, it stands to reason the Phillies will make a serious attempt to keep the two-time All-Star backstop in the fold.
  • In an interview with Andre Fernandez of The Athletic (subscription required), Marlins manager Don Mattingly once again indicated he’d like to manage the club in 2020. But if a new agreement between Mattingly, whose contract is set to expire, and the Marlins doesn’t come together after the season, he’ll be willing to go elsewhere. Mattingly said it’s his “mindset” to manage someplace in 2020, whether it’s Miami or another MLB city. The 58-year-old is in his fourth season in Miami, and though the win-loss results haven’t been pretty, Mattingly’s respected enough to potentially end up on other teams’ radars if the Marlins don’t retain him.
  • Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith and right-hander Robert Gsellman are still hoping to return this season, per Tim Healey of Newsday. Time is obviously running out on the injured pair, however. Smith hasn’t played since July 27 on account of a stress reaction in his left foot, but the 24-year-old was among the Mets’ most effective hitters of 2019 before then. Gsellman has been down for just under a month with a partial lat tear – an injury that cut off an unspectacular campaign for the 26-year-old reliever.

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