Dodgers Reportedly “Making Strong Push” For Freddie Freeman
8:08pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that the Dodgers and Braves are Freeman’s most likely landing spots. He hears that Atlanta’s offers have been in the five-year, $140MM range.
7:32pm: Morosi adds that Freeman is expected to make his decision within the next 24 hours and could do so as soon as this evening.
7:04pm: The Dodgers are “making a strong push” for star first baseman Freddie Freeman, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles has put a formal offer on the table, Morosi adds.
Freeman is among the top free agents on the market, and it’s generally been expected he’d sign quickly in the wake of the end of the lockout. The Dodgers are among the teams who have been linked to the 2020 NL MVP, as are the incumbent Braves, Yankees, Blue Jays and — most surprisingly — Rays.
Many have long expected that Freeman, a career-long Brave, will re-sign with Atlanta on a long-term deal. Calls for the Braves to keep him around particularly mounted after the club wrapped up a World Series title in November. Freeman, of course, played no small part in Atlanta’s first championship in 26 years; after hitting .300/.393/.503 during the regular season, he posted an OPS above .990 in all three playoff rounds.
However, the Braves have reportedly been unwilling to offer a sixth guaranteed year to the 32-year-old first baseman. Freeman didn’t agree to terms with anyone before the lockout, and rumors swirled throughout the work stoppage that he and the club may go in different directions. There’s been no shortage of interest in Freeman’s services, and the Braves have at least looked into the possibility of trading for A’s star Matt Olson or signing Anthony Rizzo as contingency plans.
Of course, it’s far from a lock that Freeman will wind up departing. That the Dodgers are making a serious run at the five-time All-Star is no surprise. Atlanta could yet look to make another push themselves, and there’s no indication an agreement between Freeman and Los Angeles is imminent.
The first base market figures to see quite a bit of action in the coming days and weeks. Freeman and Rizzo have yet to sign. It’s widely believed the A’s will move Olson before the start of the season as they reportedly embark on a payroll-cutting effort. The Yankees have been tied to first base upgrades this offseason, which might make 2020 home run champ Luke Voit a realistic trade candidate as well.
NL West Notes: Weaver, Mets, Roberts, Dodgers, Giants, La Stella
The Mets “have done some background work on” Diamondbacks righty Luke Weaver as New York continues to explore trade possibilities, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter). A right shoulder strain limited Weaver to only 65 2/3 innings last season, giving him two injury-plagued seasons sandwiched around a dismal 2020 campaign that saw him post a 6.58 ERA. Despite these recent issues, Weaver is still controlled via arbitration for the next two seasons (projected for $2.7MM in 2022) and has shown some signs of quality throughout his career in Arizona and St. Louis, so the D’Backs might still want to see if Weaver can get healthy and be an inexpensive rebound candidate at the back of their rotation.
For the Mets, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco are penciled into the top four rotation spots, and Tylor Megill and David Peterson are the favorites for the fifth starter’s role. Weaver brings his own set of question marks, but he would add depth to a group that also has plenty of injury concerns. Given how aggressive the Mets will likely continue to be in their offseason endeavors, New York is likely to check in on just about any pitching option available, whether a bigger name in free agency or on the trade market, or perhaps a more modest acquisition like Weaver.
More from around the NL West…
- Dave Roberts and the Dodgers are “really close” on a contract extension, the manager told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) today. Reports surfaced last month that the team was looking into a new deal for the World Series-winning skipper, as Roberts is entering the last year of his current contract.
- Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters (including The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser) that his team was still looking to add some hitting, yet even though the Giants lineup is short on right-handed bats, Zaidi said that they are looking at options on both sides of the plate. “I don’t think we’re going to be totally fixated on that side. If there’s a left-handed bat that makes sense for us, I think we can find a way to fit that as well,” Zaidi said. “We obviously love versatility. Handedness isn’t as critical.”
- Also from Zaidi, he said that Tommy La Stella‘s recovery from left Achilles surgery is coming along well, though the infielder will be a little behind during the Giants‘ Spring Training camp. La Stella underwent the surgery at the end of October and had a rough timeline of four months, so it isn’t surprising that La Stella isn’t quite yet fully ready. There doesn’t yet seem to be concern, however, that La Stella might miss any time at the start of the season. La Stella battled several injuries during his first season in San Francisco, likely contributing to his underwhelming .250/.308/.405 slash line over 242 plate appearances. Due to the backloaded nature of his three-year, $18.75MM free agent contract, La Stella is still owed $16.75MM over the final two seasons of that deal.
Report: “Industry Expectation” That Clayton Kershaw Will Return To Dodgers
For months, it has been widely anticipated that Clayton Kershaw‘s next destination will be one of the Dodgers or Rangers. Buster Olney of ESPN hears (Twitter link) “heavy industry expectation” the three-time Cy Young Award winner will be returning to Los Angeles.
Kershaw has kept his plans for the 2022 season fairly quiet, although at last check, it sounded as if he intended to continue playing. That wasn’t a given at the outset of the offseason, though. The Dodgers made the surprising decision not to issue Kershaw an $18.9MM qualifying offer, and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman suggested that decision was to give the eight-time All-Star more time to mull his future.
I know (Kershaw) wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them and also more importantly, get to a point where he feels good health wise. We have no reason to believe that he won’t,” Friedman said in November. Los Angeles’ lead executive made clear the decision not to tag Kershaw with a QO wasn’t at all motivated by the team not wanting him to return in 2022. “We’ve made it very clear that if Kersh wants to come back, he will always have a spot with what he’s meant to this organization — not just looking back but with what we think he can do for us next year.”
Kershaw has already cemented himself as one of the greatest pitchers in both franchise and major league history. He’s won five ERA titles in Dodger Blue, posting a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his last thirteen seasons. Last year’s 3.55 figure was his highest since his 2008 rookie season. That that kind of still-impressive run prevention was Kershaw’s worst in thirteen years is remarkable, and his underlying numbers reinforce that he remains a very valuable pitcher.
Last season, Kershaw struck out a lofty 29.5% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 4.3% of opponents. His 16.7% swinging strike rate was a personal best, the number one mark in the league among pitchers with 100+ innings. Kershaw ranked sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and fifth in SIERA (3.10). That’s top-of-the-rotation caliber production on a rate basis, although his market has been clouded by a late-season health scare.
The southpaw missed two months between July and September due to inflammation in his elbow/forearm area. He returned to make a few starts but dealt with renewed discomfort in his final regular season outing. That forced him to undergo a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, although he avoided surgery and has generally been expected to be a full-go for the start of the upcoming campaign.
Plenty of teams would be in touch with Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management were he shopping his services around the league. However, there’s never been any indication he’s considering signing anywhere other than the Dodgers — with whom he’s spent his entire career — or his hometown Rangers. Texas, which is managed by former Dodgers coach Chris Woodward, has been open about their desire to bring him back to the Dallas area. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote last night that Texas had the payroll flexibility to make a run at both Kershaw and A’s first baseman Matt Olson, two players whom the club apparently regards as special targets. However, it has always seemed that Kershaw’s decision would come down to his preferred fit more than the amount of dollars teams would put on the table.
Dodgers, Daniel Zamora Agree To Minor League Deal
Reliever Daniel Zamora has signed with the Dodgers, he announced this evening on Twitter. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reports that it’s a minor league contract.
Zamora, 28, has appeared in three of the past four big league seasons. He broke into the majors with the Mets in 2018, and saw some time as a situational left-hander for two years. Zamora made 33 combined appearances but tallied just 17 2/3 innings, facing 41 left-handed hitters and 37 righties. The Stony Brook product actually had more success against opposite-handed batters, but it’s unlikely teams will put any stock in those splits in such a limited sample of work.
New York assigned Zamora to their alternate training site for the entirety of the shortened 2020 season. He got off to a dismal start last year with Triple-A Syracuse, and the Mets designated him for assignment in May. The Mariners picked him up off waivers and gave him four big league appearances before designating him themselves the following month. Zamora cleared waivers that time around and spent the rest of the season with their top affiliate in Tacoma. Over 37 innings with the Rainiers, he worked to a 4.14 ERA, striking out an impressive 29.2% of opposing hitters.
Zamora owns a 4.50 ERA over 22 MLB innings. He’s flashed some decent bat-missing ability against top-level hitters, punching out 28.4% of batters faced on the strength of an 11% swinging strike rate. There’s no downside for the Dodgers in giving him a look in Spring Training, although they already have a fair amount of left-handed bullpen depth. Alex Vesia, Caleb Ferguson, Víctor González, Justin Bruihl, Garrett Cleavinger and Darien Núñez are all already on the Los Angeles 40-man roster.
Odalis Perez Passes Away
Former big league lefty Odalis Perez has tragically passed away, reports Hector Gomez of Z101 Digital. (On Twitter) Gomez relays that the former member of the Braves, Dodgers, Royals and Nationals “suffered a blow to the head after falling from a ladder.” He was 44 years old.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Perez began his MLB career with the Braves in September of 1998, just a few months after his 21st birthday. He appeared in ten games out of the bullpen, throwing 10 2/3 innings with an ERA of 4.22. He followed that up with a 1999 season that saw him make 18 appearances, 17 of those being starts, throwing 93 innings with an even 6.00 ERA. After missing the entirety of the 2000 campaign due to injury, he bounced back in 2001 and logged 95 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.91.
Prior to the 2002 campaign, Perez and two other Braves were part of a huge trade, going to the Dodgers in the deal that sent Gary Sheffield to Atlanta. That year, Perez had the best season of his career, throwing 222 1/3 innings over 32 starts with an ERA of 3.00. He racked up 155 strikeouts and finished the season with a record of 15-10. He was selected to the National League All-Star team that year.
Perez went on to be a mainstay of the Dodgers’ rotation for another three and a half seasons before being dealt to the Royals in July of 2006. He and two other Dodgers were traded to Kansas City for Elmer Dessens. He pitched out of the Royals’ rotation for the remainder of that season as well as the 2007 campaign.
In 2008, he signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, eventually having his contract selected and making the Opening Day start for the club. He allowed a fourth-inning home run to Chipper Jones, which was the first long ball in the history of Nationals Park. That season would ultimately prove to be his last MLB action. All told, he finished his career having played in 252 games, making 221 starts, throwing 1,335 innings with an ERA of 4.46. He racked up 920 strikeouts, four complete games and two shutouts.
We at MLB Trade Rumors offer condolences to the Perez family, as well as his many friends, fans and loved ones.
Dodgers Sign Ty Kelly To Minor League Deal
Utilityman Ty Kelly has agreed to a deal with the Dodgers, he announced on Twitter. With the lockout barring MLB transactions, it’s obviously a minor league contract for the 33-year-old.
Kelly has appeared in parts of three big league seasons, suiting up with the Mets and Phillies between 2016-18. He bookended that run with the Mets but actually tallied more playing time during his intervening stint in Philadelphia, where he suited up in 69 of his 116 games. Overall, the right-handed hitter has tallied 188 MLB plate appearances and owns a .203/.288/.323 line with a trio of home runs.
Obviously, Kelly’s offensive track record at the big league level is limited. He did log action at most positions around the diamond in that limited time, though, picking up some time everywhere other than shortstop or catcher. Kelly has some time at shortstop in the minors but has spent the bulk of his time on the farm at second and third base.
Kelly spent the 2019 season with the Angels’ top affiliate. He announced his retirement that August and sat out the 2020 campaign, but the UC-Davis product made a comeback effort last year. After starting with the independent Long Island Ducks, he caught on with the Mariners on a minor league deal. Kelly played only 24 games in the Seattle organization before being released, but he’ll now get another crack in the Dodgers’ system. He’s a .267/.367/.380 hitter over nine seasons at the minors’ top level, and he’ll add an experienced, versatile depth option to the organization.
Max Muncy On Elbow Rehab, Freeman Rumors
Dodgers infielder Max Muncy missed the 2021 postseason after suffering a ligament tear in his left elbow at the end of the regular season, but the slugger tells David Vassegh of Dodger Talk on AM 570 that he expects to be ready to go whenever the 2022 season can finally begin (link includes audio of the full 13-minute interview). Muncy has already begun swinging a bat and says his rehab has been “progressing well.”
“I’m getting more time to get healthy,” says Muncy in reference to the ongoing MLB lockout, “but I’m not able to work with my guys on the [Dodgers’] staff. I can’t even talk to them, really. I’d probably be getting better treatment if I was getting worked on by them, but that’s just the unfortunate circumstances. It does give me a chance to get healthy, but I’m not getting the full extent of what I could be getting. I think even before the lockout, it was looking like I was going to be possibly ready for Opening Day. I think we’re still on that track right now.”
Although Muncy suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, he adds that Tommy John was “never really on the table for me,” as every doctor who evaluated him agreed that surgery wasn’t necessary. Muncy notes that the injury was “really bad news, but it was the best bad news can get.”
A healthy Muncy is a vital piece to the Dodgers’ lineup — particularly now that Corey Seager has departed via free agency. The 31-year-old Muncy turned in a .249/.368/.527 batting line last season while notching new career-high marks in home runs (36), doubles (26) and plate appearances (592). With Seager now in Texas and Cody Bellinger in need of a rebound following a disastrous 2021 season, Muncy has become the Dodgers’ most reliable source of left-handed power.
Of course, the rumors connecting the Dodgers to Freddie Freeman have only increased throughout the offseason, and Muncy was more than happy to voice his support for that hypothetical match.
“Imagine how dangerous we’d be if we get him in that lineup,” said Muncy. “It makes me really excited. Maybe it’s not as much first base [for me], but I think I’ve told you several times I enjoy playing second base more. If we get the DH, that’s going to be a rotating position. We’re not going to have one set DH, so that’s a way we can utilize it — to get people off their feet and get them rest days without getting them out of the lineup. I don’t think we’ll have a set DH, but that just means we’ll be rotating all around the field, and that, to me, is when it’s really fun.”
Slotting Freeman into the heart of the order would likely mean more multi-position work for the likes of Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. With the expected implementation of the universal designated hitter, any of those names could see some time at DH, as could third base stalwart Justin Turner. Muncy and Taylor both have a good bit of experience at the hot corner, and Lux notched one game there last year as well (in addition to getting his feet wet in the outfield). It’s all hypotheticals for now, although the general expectation is that whenever the lockout lifts, Freeman will act quickly in choosing his next destination.
West Notes: Alvarez, Fulmer, Dodgers, Pint, Rockies, Perez, Astros
Right-hander Yadier Alvarez is in camp with the Dodgers, tweets Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register. Alvarez was once a highly-touted prospect, with the Dodgers giving him a $16MM signing bonus in 2015 and Baseball America ranking him as the 26th prospect across the league in 2017. Despite being selected to the team’s 40-man roster prior to the 2019 season, there were concerns with his lack of control. In 2018, he pitched 48 1/3 innings at Double-A with an excellent 30% strikeout rate but a ghastly 20% walk rate.
In 2019, injuries limited him to just 3 2/3 Double-A innings and he was designated for assignment in March of 2020, eventually clearing waivers and being outrighted to the minors. Of course, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues that year and Alvarez was only able to throw 3 2/3 Arizona Complex League innings in 2021. Despite all of those ups and downs, Alvarez is still relatively young, turning 26 on Tuesday. One silver lining of losing his roster spot two years ago is that he is not affected by the ongoing lockout, giving him a chance to show the Dodgers’ brass that he still has something to offer.
Another hurler looking for a bounceback with the Dodgers is Carson Fulmer, whom the club selected from the Reds in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft in December. Originally selected 8th overall by the White Sox in the 2015 draft, Fulmer also cracked Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #70 in 2016. However, he has struggled to establish himself in the majors, putting up a walk rate above 10% in each of the past six seasons. After bouncing around the waiver wire multiple times in recent years, he eventually cleared waivers in May of 2021. Plunkett spoke to the 28-year-old, who credits his former Vanderbilt teammate Walker Buehler with his current opportunity. “I think that he had chirped at the front office a little bit and tried to get me over here,” Fulmer joked. “He was excited (when the Dodgers acquired Fulmer). At the end of the day, he knows what I’m capable of. He just wanted me to be in the right place, the right situation.” Much like Alvarez, the loss of his roster spot gives Fulmer the benefit of participating in Spring Training and the upcoming minor league season, despite the lockout.
More news from teams in the west…
- Much like Alvarez and Fulmer, Riley Pint was a highly-touted youngster who dealt with control issues. Selected by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, Pint eventually cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 list at #46 in 2017. But from that point on, his stock continued dropping due to the aforementioned control problems. In 2021, he pitched 10 2/3 innings at High-A with an incredible 34.7% strikeout rate but and inflated 20.4% walk rate. That’s a small sample, of course, but largely indicative of his body of work in the minors. Pint retired in June of last year but has now un-retired, as reported by Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “Everybody is on his own time frame. I always love seeing the kid,” says Rockies player development director Chris Forbes “He’s a fantastic kid. I’m glad to see him back.” Pint just turned 24 in November, meaning there’s plenty of time for him to rebuild his stock in the game if he can get back on track and improve his control.
- The ongoing lockout carries negative consequences for every player in the union, but among those with the potential to be most affected are those who have earned 40-man roster spots but were likely to spend this year in the minors. With Spring Training and the regular season both now delayed, they are losing crucial development time, along with losing access to team trainers and development staff. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle spoke to some Astros’ prospects who were recently added to the team’s roster but were then locked out almost immediately after. This includes a surreal story of an absent-minded coach texting infielder Joe Perez, looking for a status update, with Perez having to politely remind the team employee that he’s not allowed to respond. “It’s definitely been something extraordinary,” Perez said.
Four Owners Voted Against MLB’s Most Recent CBA Offer
March 4: Angels owner Arte Moreno, D-backs owner Ken Kendrick, Reds owner Bob Castellini and Tigers owner Chris Ilitch were all opposed to proposing a $220MM CBT threshold, per Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Drellich and Rosenthal add that some concerned owners have pointed to the spending of the Dodgers and the Mets as reasons for trepidation with pushing the luxury tax threshold further north. Martino tweets, rather unsurprisingly, that the Mets and the Yankees are among the teams open to a “less punitive” CBT setup.
The Athletic report also indicates that the players were particularly irritated when MLB proposed counting the cost of player meals against the luxury tax. Whether that’s among the issues recently raised by Blue Jays righty Ross Stripling isn’t clear, but Stripling contended that the league “tried to sneak some shit past us” in the proposal’s “fine print” during the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning negotiations. Health insurance and other player benefits already count toward the luxury tax under the terms of the prior CBA. League special assistant Glen Caplin called reports of MLB trying to include meal money within the CBT “grossly mischaracterized” as part of a statement included in Drellich’s article.
March 3: Major League Baseball’s most recent offer in collective bargaining proved unpalatable to the Players Association, which rejected it despite knowing the league was likely to follow by canceling some regular season games. Various members of union leadership described that as an easy decision, with the MLBPA particularly dissatisfied with the league’s proposals on the competitive balance tax thresholds and the amount of money that would be allotted for the pre-arbitration bonus pool.
While the union found the offer too slanted in favor of the league, some on the MLB side apparently viewed the proposal as going too far towards the players’ asks. Andy Martino of SNY reports that during a video call between all 30 ownership groups and MLB leadership, four owners voted against the terms of the league’s final offer to the union on Tuesday. MLB needs approval from 23 of the 30 ownership groups to agree to their end of a new CBA, so the league was able to proceed with its offer with the assent of the other 26 owners.
Obviously, the terms of that deal weren’t sufficient to get the union’s approval. Yet some of the owners who were on-board with the league’s proposal Tuesday are evidently hesitant to move any further in the players’ direction. Martino writes that the call “made it clear” that more owners would oppose any offer that pushes the base CBT threshold above the $220MM mark the league put forth. The MLBPA, meanwhile, proposed a $238MM base tax marker in 2022. Martino writes that the union refuses to entertain any offer with a 2022 tax threshold lower than $230MM.
There’s currently an $18MM gap on the luxury tax for 2022, and the parties are even more divided on the marker’s long-term future. The MLBPA has sought more rapid escalation of the threshold over the term of a potential CBA than the league has offered. Under the parties’ latest terms, the $18MM gap would rise to a $33MM divide by 2026 — the players were looking to set that year’s figure at $263MM, while MLB proposed $230MM for that season.
Martino’s report sheds some light on the challenges that remain for finding a mutually agreeable settlement on the CBT, which has proven perhaps the biggest sticking point in negotiations. The union has pursued a rapid expansion of the threshold, pointing to team spending habits suggesting the CBT has served as a de facto salary cap for clubs. Last season, five teams finished with CBT payrolls within $5MM of the $210MM base threshold. Two clubs, the Dodgers and Padres, pushed their CBT number above $210MM. Given the union’s longstanding opposition to any form of salary cap, it’s little surprise they’ve sought to dramatically increase the numbers this time around.
The league, meanwhile, has pursued the opposite initiative. MLB’s early CBA proposals included harsher penalties for tax payors, provisions that would’ve presumably made clubs even more reluctant to do so. It dropped the push for tougher penalties this week, but it hasn’t shown the appetite for the kind of higher thresholds the union seeks.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in December, the past two collective bargaining agreements have seen limited growth in the CBT thresholds. From the time of the tax’s introduction in 1997 through 2011, it wasn’t uncommon to see the CBT jump by more than 4% year over year. Since 2012, however, that growth has slowed considerably. The base CBT marker has moved from $178MM that year to $210MM last season, an average hike of less than 2% per year.
The league’s offer to move from $210MM to $220MM would represent a 4.8% year-over-year jump. MLB would presumably posit that’s a meaningful enough increase to be favorable to the players. However, it was followed by no movement on the tax in each of the following two years and minor increases in each of the two seasons thereafter. The union, meanwhile, seems intent on pulling in a more dramatic spike in the tax threshold to somewhat compensate for its slowed progression between 2012-21.
It’s not clear how many owners are inherently opposed to pushing that number beyond $220MM. Martino’s report hints at the conflicted interests that can arise among the ownership groups themselves. Presumably, some large-market clubs that are planning to exceed the CBT anyhow would be on-board with the union’s efforts to encourage penalty-free spending. Others could be anxious to draw a harder line, particularly with the league reportedly content to miss a month’s worth of regular season games in order to pressure the union to move in their direction.
If more than three of the owners who voted yes on MLB’s latest proposal are stringently opposed to going further, the league may be hard-pressed to find the votes to go past $220MM this year. That’d seemingly be unacceptable to the union. If there’s that kind of fundamental disagreement on the luxury tax, it’ll be essentially impossible for the sides to put a new CBA in place.
Latest On Clayton Kershaw
The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.
It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.
The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).
All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).
Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.
It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.
“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”