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Dodgers Select Five Players

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The Dodgers have filled their 40-man roster, adding five players to their roster in advance of the Rule 5 deadline per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. The players being added are infielders Jacob Amaya, Eddys Leonard, and Jorbit Vivas, outfielder James Outman, and right-handed pitcher Michael Grove. In corresponding moves, outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks have been designated for assignment.

Each of Amaya, Leonard and Vivas appeared on the back half of the Dodgers’ midseason top 30 prospects ranking at Baseball America. Amaya’s a well-regarded middle infielder but struggled offensively in Double-A this past season. Leonard and Vivas haven’t yet advanced beyond High-A, but they’re both infielders with good low minors numbers and some offensive upside.

The Dodgers acquired McKinney from the Mets in July. He struggled mightily down the stretch with L.A., though, and his overall .192/.280/.358 line over 300 plate appearances with three teams was well below-average. McKinney draws a fair amount of walks, but he’s never quite tapped into enough power to offset high strikeout totals and a limited defensive profile. He’ll either be traded or waived in the coming days.

Reks made a brief big league debut in 2021, tallying ten plate appearances over six games. He spent the rest of the season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he raked at a .280/.382/.539 clip in 379 plate appearances. Reks is already 28 and has essentially no big league body of work, but it’s possible another club takes a shot on his strong track record of minor league performance. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining.

Yankees Notes: Shortstop, Judge, Gardner, Coaching Staff

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There are plenty of opportunities available for the Yankees, widely expected to be one of the league’s more active teams this winter. After dipping below the luxury tax threshold to reset their penalties in 2021, it seems the club is poised for a big offseason.

Early comments from general manager Brian Cashman have stoked that fire, with the baseball ops leader telling reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the front office has some financial leeway. Owner Hal Steinbrenner echoed that sentiment, telling David Lennon of Newsday that Cashman’s suggestion is “accurate.” The New York chairman declined to delve into specifics about where the club’s budgetary limit might land, but he didn’t downplay the possibility of some noteworthy moves.

The most straightforward path to a big winter would seem to be dipping into the free agent shortstop market. Not only has Cashman already professed a desire to upgrade the position, he’s confirmed the club has been in contact with the reps for multiple free agents. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this week that the Yankees and incumbent Dodgers were among the clubs with interest in Corey Seager, while Yankees’ brass has expressed a willingness to consider Carlos Correa despite his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

It remains to be seen whether the Yankees will be willing to commit anywhere in the neighborhood of the $300+MM guarantees it could take to land Seager or Correa though. The club has two of the game’s most promising shortstop prospects — Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe — rising up the minor league ranks. Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News reported yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to pursue a stopgap option than to play at the top of the market at the position based on the belief that Peraza and/or Volpe could take the reins in the not too distant future. If the Yankees were to eschew the star free agents at the top of the market, Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis could profile as short-term options to stabilize the infield defense.

Whether the Yankees should be willing to sit out this offseason’s shortstop class is up for debate, but doing so could allow them to allocate more funds towards locking up star outfielder Aaron Judge on a long-term deal. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Judge to command a salary in the $17.1MM range in 2022, his final season of arbitration eligibility. The three-time All-Star is slated to reach free agency next offseason.

Judge has already expressed openness to an extension. Cashman told reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) this evening the club was willing to talk about a long-term deal with Judge’s representatives but hasn’t yet opened talks. Locking up Judge at this stage of his career would no doubt require a massive investment. The 29-year-old has already banked a significant amount during his run through arbitration, and he’s coming off a stellar .287/.373/.544 showing across 633 plate appearances.

A reunion with Brett Gardner would require a far smaller outlay but could eventually be on the to-do list. The Yankees have continued to bring the fourteen-year veteran back in recent seasons, but the 38-year-old is currently a free agent after both sides declined their ends of a 2022 option. The Yankees haven’t discussed a potential reunion with Gardner’s reps in the early stages of the offseason, Cashman said (via Hoch), but the GM said his belief is the career-long Yankee intends to continue playing.

In non-player news, Cashman also expressed a desire to expand the coaching staff. The Yankees are planning to hire three hitting coaches and an additional pitching instructor (Hoch link). That’s become an increasingly common approach, particularly this offseason. We’ve already seen teams like the Brewers and Orioles hire two hitting instructors as co-hitting coaches, with an assistant working underneath that top duo. The Yankees parted ways with previous hitting coach Marcus Thames at the end of the season.

Early Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.

We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.

Rejected QO

Decision Not Yet Reported

Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.

Chris Taylor To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Utilityman Chris Taylor will reject the Dodgers’ one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer and test the open market, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). The Meister Sports Management client will presumably set out in search of a multi-year pact, be it with the Dodgers or another club.

That’s not at all surprising, since Taylor should be in plenty of demand. Even with draft pick compensation attached, MLBTR placed the 31-year-old sixteenth on this offseason’s list of top free agents, projecting him to land a four-year deal worth $64MM. Taylor’s ability to play essentially any non-catcher position on the diamond should make him a highly coveted player, with teams seeing him as a potential solution for weaknesses on their current roster at various positions.

While Taylor’s best known for his defensive versatility, he pairs that with strong work at the plate. The right-handed hitter strikes out a fair amount, but he also draws walks and hits for power at high clips despite spending his past few years in one of the game’s more pitcher-friendly home parks. By measure of wRC+, Taylor has been an above-average bat in each of the past five seasons. He slowed down in the second half of the 2021 campaign, but Taylor was scorching hot during the postseason to hit free agency on a high note.

If Taylor doesn’t re-sign with the Dodgers, they’ll stand to receive a compensatory draft choice. As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, they’ll only add a pick after the end of the fourth round. Teams that sign Taylor (or any other qualified free agent), will surrender draft and potentially international signing bonus capital, with the extent of the forfeiture dependent on the signing club’s market size. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down which picks each team would forfeit last month.

Julio Lugo Passes Away

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Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.

Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.

Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

Dodgers Interested In Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray

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With the Reds seemingly looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers are looking to capitalize, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Los Angeles has had talks with the Reds about right-handers Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray.  It isn’t known if the two sides progressed far into negotiations, or if the Dodgers were doing their due diligence on potential pitching acquisitions.

Both pitchers come with two years of control.  Castillo is arbitration-eligible through the 2023 season, and is projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 (Castillo’s age-29 season).  The 32-year-old Gray will earn $10.7MM in 2022, the final guaranteed season of his three-year/$30.5MM contract, and the Reds hold a $12.7MM club option on his services for 2023.

Castillo’s youth and higher ceiling makes him the bigger trade chip of the two hurlers, though Gray is hardly just a consolation prize for the Dodgers or any other team looking to dip into the Reds’ pitching staff.  After an All-Star season in 2019 (his first in Cincinnati), Gray has continued to be solid in 2020-21, with a 4.05 ERA, 48.3% grounder rate, and 28% strikeout rate over his last 191 1/3 innings of work.  Control is Gray’s persistent issue, as he hasn’t posted an above-average walk rate since the 2015 season when he pitched for the Athletics.

Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Reds are more open to trade discussions about Castillo than they’ve been in the past, which may be indicative of the Reds’ desire to cut the budget.  Cincinnati already parted ways with one pitcher last week when Wade Miley was put on waivers and then claimed by the Cubs, thus saving the Reds the $1MM buyout of Miley’s $10MM club option for 2022, and saving the team the “risk” (from the perspective of this Reds payroll crunch) of not finding a trade partner for Miley if that option was exercised.

Any number of teams figure to be exploring just how much of a fire sale is taking place in Cincinnati, and Castillo and Gray will both garner lots of attention on the trade market.  The Dodgers have a particular need for starting pitching, as Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw are both free agents, Dustin May’s rehab from Tommy John surgery will keep him out until the second half of the 2022 season at the earlier, and Trevor Bauer’s future is in limbo because of legal charges and a possible suspension.  Los Angeles has already made one early move for pitching in signing left-hander Andrew Heaney on Wednesday, but a higher-profile addition like Castillo or Gray would slot in nicely behind Walker Buehler and Julio Urias in the Dodgers’ rotation, while still leaving the door open for Scherzer or Kershaw to return.

Cardinals Notes: Reyes, Hicks, Scherzer, Matz

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The Cardinals’ rotation for 2022 is 80% set, with Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson pencilled into four out of the five slots. However, that last spot could still seemingly go in many different ways, either with internal or external options. Derrick S. Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch spoke to the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about the various paths they’re choosing between.

The club is apparently giving consideration to Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks, both of whom having been primarily working as relievers in recent years and are questionable fits for rotation jobs. Reyes had an excellent year out of the bullpen in 2021, eventually becoming the team’s closer. In 72 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24 with a strikeout rate of 30% and notched 29 saves. However, that also came with a walk rate of 16.4%, around twice the league average. He also comes with a lengthy injury history that has limited his contributions in his career thus far. Those 72 1/3 innings from this year are the most he’s thrown since 2016, when he threw 111 1/3 between Triple-A and the big leagues, which is the most he’s logged in a single season. That was followed by a completely lost season in 2017 and three straight years of just a few dozen each.

The situation with Hicks is somewhat comparable, as he had an excellent season in 2018, throwing 77 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 3.59 ERA. However, he was limited to 28 2/3 innings in 2019 before having to undergo Tommy John surgery, opted out of 2020 and then was limited by injuries to just 13 innings in 2021, between Triple-A and the big leagues. Expecting him to jump into a rotation job at this point seems like a tall ask, and Mozeliak admitted as much. “My guess is no better than yours or anybody else’s,” he said, in regards to what Hicks could provide in the future. “For him to go out and pitch north of 100 innings would be maybe putting him in a difficult spot.”

In addition to those two, Goold also lists Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo and Genesis Cabrera as those who are in the mix. Despite all of those candidates, the club is still looking into external options, which is understandable based on how 2021 went. Multiple injuries caused the club the struggle in the first half, leading them to make the mid-summer additions of Jon Lester, J.A. Happ and Wade LeBlanc. Although that helped stabilize the staff and get the club into the playoffs, they’re all now free agents. As Mozeliak puts it, “Last year, we thought we had nine or 10. I think you’ve got to have some protection going in regardless of what we say we’re going to get them to do… Having some additional arms is healthy.”

Goold’s report says that free agent Max Scherzer “would entertain an offer from the Cardinals”, which is notable because Scherzer was apparently unwilling to waive his no-trade clause to join them this past summer, preferring to become a member of a West Coast club. However, now that he is trying to maximize his earning potential, it makes sense that he would try to keep as many buyers at the table as possible, in order to ensure healthy bidding. Even if Scherzer is genuinely open to working in Missouri, where he was born and raised, the club may have trouble fitting him into the budget, as their 2022 payroll is currently over $142MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s around $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Scherzer is likely to command much more than that for an annual salary, with MLBTR recently predicting he garners a contract of $120MM over three years, an annual average value of $40MM.

A pitcher who will come much cheaper is Steven Matz, who was at the GM Meetings yesterday, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey lists the Cardinals as being interested in his services, along with the Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers. MLBTR predicted Matz to land a deal of $27MM over three years, an AAV of $9MM which would certainly fit into the Cards’ payroll much more neatly than Scherzer’s. Matz had a solid year for the Blue Jays in 2021, throwing 150 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.82. He figures to be popular among teams hesitant to surrender draft picks, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Jays.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Payroll, Betts, Roberts, Heaney, Injuries

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Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke with reporters (including The Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, and The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett) about several topics surrounding the team, including how much payroll might be available to acquire or re-sign premium players this winter.  Unsurprisingly, Friedman didn’t state any kind of dollar figure, noting that he has yet to receive an official budget for 2022.  That said, he noted that “our [ownership] group has demonstrated at every single turn its strong desire to win, and this year will be no different.  What that means in terms of an actual payroll number, I’m not sure, but I feel confident we’ll have the requisite talent to be a real championship competitor.”

By far the biggest spenders in baseball in 2021, the Dodgers soared over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold with an approximated $275MM tax number.  While it isn’t clear if L.A. will quite hit those payroll heights again, it seems very likely that the Dodgers will pay more tax penalties next year considering how much money is already on their books.  Of course, we also don’t know what the luxury tax threshold will even be next year, or if the CBT will be altered as players and owners negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement.

More from Friedman…

  • It doesn’t seem like Mookie Betts will need any sort of procedure to fix the hip injuries that plagued him in 2021.  Hip inflammation twice sent Betts to the 10-day injured list for brief absences last year, and while his production was down from his usual numbers, Betts still hit .264/.367/.487 with 23 homers over 550 plate appearances even while being less than 100 percent for most of the season.
  • Freidman reiterated that the team wants manager Dave Roberts “to be a big part of what we accomplish looking forward,” though the Dodgers have more immediate offseason business that must be addressed before the club can talk with Roberts about a contract extension.  Roberts’ four-year deal is up after the 2022 season, and the 49-year-old has an outstanding 542-329 record over his six seasons as the Los Angeles manager, with the 2020 World Series championship, two other NL pennants, and five NL West titles on his resume.
  • The Dodgers already made a quick move to sign Andrew Heaney to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and the Dodgers “feel like there’s some real upside we can tap into,” Friedman said.  “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.”  After a rough 2021 season, Heaney is hoping to rebound in Los Angeles and then re-enter the free agent market on the strength of a much better platform year.  This one-year commitment is just fine with Friedman, as he noted that adding a veteran as rotation depth allows the Dodgers’ pitching prospects more seasoning time in the minors.
  • Friedman also provided on some of the Dodgers’ Tommy John recovery cases.  Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson respectively underwent their procedures in August 2020 and September 2020, and the PBO said both hurlers should “be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter.” Dustin May underwent his TJ surgery almost exactly six months ago and has already started a throwing program, tentatively setting up a return after the All-Star Game.  “Everything to this point has been incredibly positive.  I think [May] is going to impact us at some point in the second half,” Friedman said.

Dodgers Sign Andrew Heaney

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Andrew Heaney is headed back to Southern California, as the Dodgers announced on Wednesday that they’d signed the southpaw to a one-year contract that’ll reportedly pay him $8.5MM. Heaney is a client of Icon Sports Management.

It’s the first major significant free agent strike of the offseason, as Heaney checked in 50th on MLBTR’s just-released free agent rankings. His reported contract terms land a couple million dollars north of MLBTR’s projected $6MM guarantee. The southpaw split the 2021 campaign between the Angels and the Yankees, who acquired him at the trade deadline for a pair of pitching prospects.

The past few seasons haven’t been smooth for Heaney, as he’s posted an ERA of 4.46 or higher every year since 2018. The 2021 campaign was especially challenging, as the 30-year-old managed just a 5.83 ERA over 129 2/3 frames. He struggled at both stops, posting a 5.27 mark in Orange County and putting up a ghastly 7.32 figure in pinstripes. Those issues in the Bronx became significant enough for the Yankees to transition him into a bullpen role and eventually outright him off the 40-man roster just before the end of the season.

Needless to say, Heaney hasn’t gotten the results he or his teams have desired in recent seasons. His poor run prevention totals are essentially attributable to what happens after batters make contact, though. Heaney fanned 26.9% of opposing hitters this past season, a mark that checks in more than four percentage points above the league average for starters. (His strikeout rate during his time as a starting pitcher was an even more impressive 27.5%). That was supported by a 12.5% swinging strike rate that’s more than a tick above average, while his 7.3% walk percentage was very slightly lower than the league mark. It’s no surprise, then, that Heaney put up a 3.84 SIERA that’s nearly two full runs lower than his ERA.

That kind of line is nothing new for Heaney, who has managed strikeout and walk numbers befitting a mid-rotation arm for the past few seasons. In each of the last four years, his SIERA has hovered between 3.74 and 4.08. Given that SIERA has proven more predictive of a pitcher’s future ERA than even past ERA itself, it’s easy to see why the Dodgers are willing to roll the dice in hopes of forthcoming positive regression. They’re not alone in their optimism, as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays that Heaney drew interest from twelve-plus teams during his extremely brief stay on the open market.

That said, the Dodgers aren’t acting without risk. Heaney’s bottom line ERA has exceeded his SIERA in each of the past four campaigns, largely due to consistent issues keeping the ball in the yard. Heaney has allowed home runs at a higher-than-average clip in three of the past four years, and he was among the game’s most homer-prone arms this past season. The former first-round pick allowed 2.01 HR per nine innings in 2021, a rate eclipsed by just five other hurlers (minimum 100 IP). That’s an untenable mark no matter how good a pitcher’s strikeout and walk rates are, so Heaney and the Dodgers’ coaching staff will have to formulate a plan to better avoid the longball in 2022.

While Heaney finished this year in the Yankees’ bullpen, he seems likely to get a crack in the Los Angeles rotation to open next season. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects he’ll be joined by Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías and David Price at the moment, and there’s certainly the possibility for future additions. Heaney’s reported deal pushes the Dodgers’ projected payroll to $206MM, about $40MM shy of the figure the club carried into 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Should they desire, the Dodgers likely still have the resources to pursue a reunion with star free agents Max Scherzer and/or Clayton Kershaw.

As for Heaney, he returns to an area of the country in which he’s spent most of the past seven years. It’ll technically be his second stint as a Dodger, as Heaney was a member of the organization for a few hours between trades during the 2014 Winter Meetings (a tenure highlighted by a tongue-in-cheek tweet thanking the club for their “good run” together). If his results converge with his more promising underlying numbers in 2022, he’d hit next offseason’s free agent market with a good chance at landing a much stronger multi-year deal. In the intervening season, he’ll try to help the Dodgers to their tenth straight playoff appearance and third consecutive trip to the NL Championship Series.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported that Heaney and the Dodgers were in agreement on a one-year deal worth north of $8MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported Heaney’s salary at $8.5MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Andrew Friedman Discusses Clayton Kershaw QO Decision

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The Dodgers made the surprising decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw before Sunday afternoon’s deadline. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link) this evening that call was not any sort of indication the team wants to move forward without the three-time Cy Young award winner.

“We’ve made it very clear that if Kersh wants to come back, he will always have a spot with what he’s meant to this organization — not just looking back but with what we think he can do for us next year,” Friedman said. “I know (Kershaw) wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them and also more importantly, get to a point where he feels good health wise. We have no reason to believe that he won’t.”

As for why the Dodgers declined to issue Kershaw a qualifying offer if they were open to him returning in 2022, Friedman implied it was an appreciative gesture on the organization’s part. “I think just with our respect for him and for what he’s done for this organization, that wasn’t something that we wanted to do and put him on that kind of clock when he wasn’t ready for it,” Friedman told Ardaya.

Players tagged with a qualifying offer have until November 17 to decide whether to accept the offer or reject it to explore the free agent market. With Kershaw’s apparent desire to spend some time with his family and continue to rehab the elbow injury that ended his season prematurely, the Dodgers determined not to put an artificial clock on his decision-making process.

There’s no questioning Kershaw’s status as a franchise icon. He’s won five ERA titles and an MVP award over his illustrious career, and he’ll one day wind up in the Hall of Fame wearing a Dodger cap. As Friedman suggested, Kershaw’s still capable of being highly productive, even if his days as the game’s best pitcher are probably behind him. Over 121 2/3 innings, the 33-year-old worked to a 3.55 ERA this past season. That kind of production would upgrade any team’s rotation, so it’s easy to understand the Dodgers’ openness to bringing Kershaw back even before considering his legacy.

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