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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Dodgers Re-Sign Justin Turner

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Feb. 19: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing of Turner to a two-year deal that runs through the 2022 season. Lefty Caleb Ferguson, who had Tommy John surgery last September, has been placed on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot.

Feb. 13: Justin Turner alerted the baseball universe of his return to Los Angeles. Pending a physical, the Vayner Sports client will re-sign with the Dodgers for two years, $34MM with a $14MM team option for a third year. The deal includes an $8MM signing bonus and built-in escalators that could raise the overall value of the deal to $52MM over three years, conditional to MVP voting.

Justin Turner | Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Turner returning to the Dodgers hardly counts as a surprise, though the scuttlebutt of late had pushed the narrative of a possible departure. Whether he actually came close to signing with the Brewers or another club is unclear. What we know is that Turner will return to the franchise where he made his name, became a superstar, fan favorite, and World Champion. The 36-year-old third baseman was an All-Star in 2017 and earned down-ballot MVP votes in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018. For his career, he owns a .292/.369/.469 line with 124 home runs and 29.5 bWAR.

His career famously started slow, however, as he languished through most of his twenties as a contact-first reserve infielder for the Orioles and Mets. As he arrived in Chavez Ravine, he brought with him just a .260/.323/.361 slash line over 926 career plate appearances. Perhaps most notably, he had shown almost no signs of power through his age-28 season with a meager .101 ISO.

The tale turned rapidly in LA as Turner produced a revelatory .340/.404/.493 line and 158 wRC+ in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. The sudden uptick in potency at the plate was prompted by a swing change that he’d begun work on during his final season with the Mets, but it was only once he headed west that results populated his box scores. Turner has to this point produced 98.0 percent of his career bWAR since donning Dodger blue as a 29-year-old.

The relationship has benefited both sides, of course, as Turner has grown into a centerpiece of a dominant era of Dodger baseball. They have won the National League West every season that Turner’s been stationed at the hot corner and finally broke through to win the World Series last year – their third season as pennant winners together.

In returning, Turner is able not only to help defend their title, but to move together beyond an uncomfortable moment on the national stage that took place, unfortunately, at the crowning moment of the Turner/Dodgers partnership. Turner was pulled late in the clinching game of their World Series win because of a positive coronavirus test. Turner nonetheless returned and (often mask-less) took part in the post-game celebration.

The dilemma put upon Turner, the Dodgers, and the league was no doubt trying considering how unlikely it was that he had made it to that point. He is, after all, not only a gregarious and popular superstar on one of the league’s preeminent franchises, but he is a symbol of perseverance for the game, its young players and its fans. Nevertheless, it was an unfortunate disregard of protocols on the national stage.

Turner will now add another chapter to his Dodgers’ career. In returning to defend their title, Turner joins an arguably even-more-star-studded team than the one that defeated the Rays in six games last fall. With the addition of NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to the rotation, as well as former AL Cy Young David Price, who opted out of 2020, the Dodgers boast one of the more decorated rotations in recent memory. All-time great Clayton Kershaw remains at the top with young phenom Walker Buehler. Julio Urias, who closed out the World Series, rounds out their likely starting five.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Dodgers’ CBT payroll now stands around $254.7MM.  That means they’ve passed the base tax threshold ($210MM), the first surcharge threshold ($230MM) and the second surcharge threshold ($250MM).  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes calculates the team’s projected tax amount at about $13.8MM, but that’s only if their payroll holds at this level.  The second surcharge threshold is especially steep, as any dollar spent beyond $250MM is taxed at 62.5%.  Furthermore, finishing the season above $250MM also carries the penalty of the team having its highest available draft pick next year moved back by ten places.  It’s plausible the Dodgers will attempt to get back under that line, perhaps by trading Joe Kelly and his $8.33MM CBT hit.

Wherever the Dodgers’ 2021 payroll lands, it’s highly likely they’ll be a tax payor of some sort, landing past that first $210MM line for the first time since 2017.  Dodgers president of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman managed to get the team’s payroll south of $210MM in each of the 2018 and ’19 seasons after the club paid the luxury tax from 2013-17.  The Dodgers’ actions this winter serve as a reminder that the $210MM threshold is not a salary cap, especially for a team that gets classified as a first-time CBT payor after “resetting” previously.  The tax rates are higher for second and third-time payors, which is presumably why the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs seem to be trying to stay below $210MM.  Why any other big market team would treat that number as a salary cap is harder to explain.

Turner tweeted news of his return himself tonight, though Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter) chipped in with confirmation. Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter) first had the deal in the $30MM range, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman provided the specific two-years, $34MM number, and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added the club option for 2023 and $8MM signing bonus, as well as later specifics. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times contributed to dollar value of the team option (via Twitter).

Dodgers Hire Ron Roenicke As Special Assistant To GM

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The Dodgers have hired Ron Roenicke as a special assistant to the general manager, Tara Sullivan of the Boston Globe reports.

Roenicke previously managed the Red Sox in 2020, when the club went 24-36. The Red Sox then moved on from Roenicke and brought back their prior skipper, Alex Cora, who had Roenicke on his staff from 2018-19. Roenicke also managed the Brewers from 2011-15, and his teams have put up an overall record of 342-331.

Los Angeles isn’t new territory for the 64-year-old Roenicke, a California native and former outfielder who played for the Dodgers and then spent time on both their coaching staff and the Angels’. He was a third base coach for those teams from 2015-17 before going to Boston.

The Luxury Tax Boogeyman

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The competitive balance tax has been an insidious force against the players.  Back in 1996, in the wake of the ’94 strike, a new collective bargaining agreement was reached and healing between the teams and players could begin.  As Jon Pessah wrote in his book The Game, “[Union head Donald] Fehr finally said yes to a luxury tax — the first time the union agreed to any form of payroll restraint since free agency changed everything in 1976.”  I don’t think anyone anticipated what the luxury tax would become.

In that CBA, which covered 1997-2001, the luxury tax was to cover only the 1997-1999 seasons, sort of an experiment.  Opening the door to the luxury tax in that 1996 deal wasn’t perceived as a major hit to the players.  Pessah wrote, “This labor war was a huge victory for Fehr and the union…The owners never got their salary cap or any changes to free agency or salary arbitration.”

Fast forward to 2021, and it’s clear that most major market teams use the base tax threshold of $210MM as something of a soft salary cap.  It’s a limitation MLB likes having in place, as it helps keep free agent salaries down.  If MLB wanted the luxury tax removed, they could do so easily, as they did when it was decided the tax would not be collected in 2020.

Here’s the chart for tax rates (link for app users):

The tax brackets for 2021 are $210-$230MM, $230-250MM, and $250MM and beyond.

In their extrapolated 2020 payrolls, the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs exceeded that year’s $208MM base tax threshold.  It’s notable that while MLB did not make these three teams actually pay tax in 2020, they still didn’t give them a free reset.  That’s why the Yankees sit around $200MM right now – they’re in that third column of the chart, and they want to move back into the first for 2022.  It’s all about the reset, not the actual tax amount if they slightly exceed $210MM in 2021.

The Cubs are trying to avoid the third-time CBT payor column as well, and they’ve accomplished that goal and then some in getting Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Schwarber off the books.  They’re only around $170MM for 2021, a full $40MM shy of the threshold.  The Astros are sitting around $196MM, so they have wiggle room as well.  The machinations of these three teams, particularly the Yankees, assume that the luxury tax system will remain similar in a new CBA, and there actually is a reason to reset in 2021.  If the union succeeds in drastically increasing the thresholds, which should be a major priority for them, all three clubs could have easily reset in 2022 anyway.

The one club that didn’t get the memo about treating $210MM as a soft cap is the Dodgers.  The Dodgers pulled off their reset in 2018 and have stayed below the base tax threshold since, putting them in the first-time payor column for 2021 after the signings of Trevor Bauer, Justin Turner, and Blake Treinen.  With a projected CBT payroll of $254.4MM currently, they’re looking at a tax penalty of about $13MM for 2021.  If a third-time payor spent $254.4MM, their tax penalty would be over $26MM.  In any case, exceeding $250MM places another tax: the club’s highest available pick moves back 10 spots in the next draft.  That’s why the Dodgers will likely find a way to get below $250MM this year.

It’s worth asking: if you’re not the Yankees, Astros, or Cubs, why are you so scared of the $210MM boogeyman?  None of the other 27 teams need to reset – they’re already in the first-time CBT payor column.  That includes the Red Sox, sitting around $204MM and letting the Blue Jays pass them up.  The Angels are around $191MM.  The Mets are around $187MM.  The Phillies are around $196MM.  The Nationals are around $194MM.  That makes five teams this winter that seem to have some deference to the $210MM base tax threshold.  What would be so bad about spending, say, $220MM?  The tax penalty would be $2MM, exactly the price of one year of Hansel Robles.

So the Reset Club includes the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs.  And then five additional teams – the Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Nationals – belong to the Soft Cap Club.  For the other 22 teams, the luxury tax simply has no bearing, which will only be underlined if the thresholds go up significantly in the next CBA.  It’s possible the eight luxury tax avoiders have grand plans for the 2021-22 free agent class – check it out – and want to be first-time payors after they go big next winter.  Otherwise, it’s hard to understand why a Soft Cap Club forms every offseason.

Dodgers, Matt Davidson Agree To Minor League Deal

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6:55pm: First baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo is also among the Dodgers’ non-roster invitees to camp, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America tweets. The 28-year-old batted .189/.250/.351 in 84 PA as a Cardinal from 2019-20. Ravelo has hit a much more productive .293/.369/.452 over 1,652 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level.

6:41pm: The Dodgers have reached a minor league agreement with corner infielder Matt Davidson, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. The deal includes an invitation to major league spring training.

Davidson, the 35th overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2009 and a well-regarded prospect in the ensuing years, debuted in the bigs with the club in 2013. The Diamondbacks traded Davidson to the White Sox prior to 2014 for reliever Addison Reed, however. Davidson didn’t make his White Sox debut until 2016, but the now-29-year-old owns a lifetime .223/.292/.433 line with 52 home runs in 1,075 plate appearances. He was a 20-home run hitter in both 2017 and ’18.

Davidson spent last year as a member of the Reds, with whom he struggled to a .163/.264/.395 mark at the plate with three HRs in 47 PA. He also appeared in three games as a pitcher, tossing 3 1/3 innings of two-earned run ball. Davidson threw three scoreless innings while with the White Sox in 2018.

In all likelihood, Davidson won’t help the Dodgers’ pitching staff. But he’ll at least try to earn a backup role as an infielder behind third baseman Justin Turner, whom the Dodgers just agreed to re-sign, and first baseman Max Muncy.

Dodgers Trade Josh Sborz To Rangers

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The Dodgers have traded recently designated-for-assignment righty Josh Sborz to the Rangers, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The Rangers announced the move quickly after that initial report, revealing that they’ll send minor league righty Jhan Zambrano to L.A. in return. Fellow right-hander Jimmy Herget was designated for assignment by the Rangers in order to create roster space for Sborz.

Sborz, 27, lost his roster spot when the Dodgers made their three-year deal with reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer official. He’s seen action in the Majors in both 2019 and 2020, pitching to a combined 6.08 ERA and 5.14 SIERA in a tiny sample of 13 1/3 innings.

On the minor league side, Sborz has had a bit more success, logging a 4.55 ERA in 87 Triple-A frames. That mark still isn’t especially eye-catching, but it’s come in a decisively hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. Furthermore, Sborz’s 30.5 percent strikeout rate and 7.7 percent walk rate in Triple-A both give a bit more reason for optimism.

Sborz, a 2015 Competitive Balance draft selection (Round B), has a mid-90s heater with an average or better slider and, perhaps most importantly, a minor league option remaining. He’ll compete for a job in the Texas bullpen this spring and will head to Triple-A to serve as a depth piece if he can’t crack the Opening Day roster.

Texas will have a week to trade the 27-year-old Herget, attempt to run him through outright waivers or simply release him. The right-hander posted a 3.20 ERA in 19 2/3 innings with Texas last year, though the fact that he walked 14 of the 87 batters he faced and plunked another two suggests that he’s not likely to repeat that level of success over a larger sample of work.

Zambrano, 19, tossed 60 innings with the Rangers’ affiliates in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, notching a 2.55 ERA with 52 punchouts and 16 walks. He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the lack of a minor league season and doesn’t rank among the organization’s top prospects.

Dodgers Extend Austin Barnes, Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with catcher Austin Barnes by agreeing to a two-year deal worth $4.3MM, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The contract breaks down as a $300K signing bonus, $1.5MM in 2021, $2.5MM in 2022, and another $400K in potential incentives based on games played.

Barnes was seeking a $2MM salary for the 2021 season and the Dodgers countered with a $1.5MM figure, but the new deal both avoids a hearing and locks Barnes up for both of his remaining arbitration years.  The catcher is still scheduled to hit free agency following the 2022 season.

MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Barnes to earn between $1.3MM and $1.7MM through the arbitration process, so the catcher will top that projection (counting both salary and the signing bonus) and he also banks some extra financial security for 2022 in the process.  The Barnes deal wraps up the Dodgers’ arbitration business for the winter, and it is the second multi-year contract L.A. has struck this week in order to avoid an arbitration hearing, after reaching a two-year, $8MM pact with Walker Buehler.

Originally a ninth-round pick for the Marlins in the 2011 draft, Barnes came to Los Angeles as part of a memorable seven-player trade in December 2014.  While not considered an elite prospect at the time, Barnes hit well in the Dodgers’ farm system and seemed to emerge as a catcher-of-the-future candidate when he hit .289/.408/.486 over 262 PA in 2017.  His bat hasn’t been nearly as potent since, however, and Barnes has settled into a backup role behind Will Smith.

With another highly touted catching prospect in Keibert Ruiz on the cusp of regular playing time, it remains to be seen if Barnes will be part of the Dodgers’ long-term plans.  His two-year agreement could now make him something of a trade chip, or the Dodgers might prefer to move Ruiz in order to land a higher-tier trade target.  This all to be said, Los Angeles could also just end up keeping all their catchers as part of the team’s philosophy of amassing as much depth as possible — the addition of the universal DH would help in that regard, as more at-bats would be available.

Barnes’ deal carries a $2.15MM average annual value, adding to the Dodgers’ increasingly large luxury tax bill.  The club now has a projected tax number of over $257.5MM (according to Roster Resource), beyond the highest penalty level of $250MM.  The Dodgers are facing a tax bill of over $15MM and, for passing the $250MM mark, a 10-position drop in the draft order for their highest pick in the 2021 draft.  There has been speculation that L.A. could look to trade a contract in order to at least duck under the $250MM threshold, but since the Dodgers are being taxed at the “first-timer” rate, they seem comfortable in making this one-year splurge to reload for another World Series title.

Latest On Justin Turner

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Justin Turner’s market had already reportedly narrowed to four teams, and the field could now be even thinner for the former All-Star.  The Dodgers and Brewers have each made multi-year contract offers to Turner, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), and while the third baseman could potentially have other longer-term offers on the table, Turner seems “less likely” to sign with other rumored suitors like the Braves, Mets, or Blue Jays.

If Turner’s final four is now down to a final two, the Dodgers are still in the lead, according to both Heyman and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter).  There has been a widespread expectation for much of the winter that Turner would eventually re-sign with Los Angeles, though some wrinkles were added by Turner’s initial ask of a four-year contract, and the Dodgers already projected to spend far beyond the $215MM luxury tax threshold.  As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2021 is over $240MM (thanks in large part to the Trevor Bauer signing), and spending beyond $250MM would trigger the maximum tax penalty — a 42.5% surtax on overages, and the Dodgers’ first 2021 draft pick would be dropped back in the draft order by 10 spots.

Of course, the Dodgers could have no issue taking the extra one-year tax hit in order to bolster their chances at another World Series title, or to retain a star player who has spent the last seven seasons in Dodger blue.  Still, the lack of common ground to date between Turner and the Dodgers has opened the door for a team like Milwaukee, as Murray writes that the Brewers made a “competitive” offer.  It seems unlikely that any team would be willing to give four guaranteed years to the 36-year-old Turner, but speculatively, the Brewers might gain an edge over L.A. by offering three years depending on the nature of the Dodgers’ offer.

As for the other teams linked to Turner, earlier reports suggested that the Mets weren’t getting far in contract talks.  The chances of Turner going to Atlanta or Toronto seemed to dim after those teams made other high-priced signings — the Braves and Marcell Ozuna, and the Blue Jays with George Springer and Marcus Semien.

Marlins To Acquire Dylan Floro

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2:32pm: The Dodgers are also getting righty Kyle Hurt, a fifth-round pick of the Marlins in 2020. Hurt is a California native who pitched at USC. Baseball America wrote before the draft that teams interested in Hurt “see his future as a hard-throwing reliever.”

2:01pm: The Marlins are set to acquire right-handed reliever Dylan Floro from the Dodgers in exchange for lefty Alex Vesia and a prospect, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). It’s the second bullpen-related trade of the day for the Dodgers, who dealt lefty Adam Kolarek to the A’s in exchange for infielder Sheldon Neuse as part of a four-player trade this morning.

Floro may provide an upgrade to Miami’s bullpen, which was among the worst in the majors a year ago. The 30-year-old, whom the Dodgers acquired in a trade with the Reds in 2018, pitched to a 3.10 ERA/3.68 SIERA with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate in 98 2/3 innings in a Los Angeles uniform. Floro’s 52.7 percent groundball rate during that span was one of the main reasons he was so effective, as he also posted a meager 8.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate. Floro isn’t eligible for arbitration until after this season, and he’s not due to become a free agent until the end of 2023, so he could be a multiyear piece for Miami.

Vesia, 24, was a 17th-round pick of the Marlins in 2018 who made a 4 1/3-inning major league debut last season and allowed nine earned runs on seven hits and seven walks (with five strikeouts). He does, however, carry a 1.62 ERA with great strikeout and walk rates in 100 innings of work in the minors.

Dodgers, Athletics Swap Kolarek For Neuse In Four-Player Trade

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11:45am: The two teams have announced the trade.

11:02am: The Athletics and Dodgers are in agreement on a trade that’ll sent lefty Adam Kolarek and minor league outfielder Cody Thomas from L.A. to Oakland in exchange for infielder Sheldon Neuse and minor league righty Gus Varland, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter).

Adam Kolarek | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kolarek, 32, will be an immediate boost to an Oakland bullpen that has lost Liam Hendriks and Joakim Soria this winter and could yet lose Yusmeiro Petit (still a free agent) as well. Kolarek has emerged a ground-ball specialist capable of utterly overwhelming left-handed hitters in recent years, pitching to a combined 3.07 ERA and 3.61 SIERA with a below-average 17.4 percent strikeout rate but strong walk (5.7) and ground-ball (63.3) percentages. He’s controllable for four seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter, so he’s a cost-efficient add for an A’s team that has aggressively slashed payroll this winter while eschewing any real expenditures.

The near-term piece headed back to L.A. is the 26-year-old Neuse, who made his MLB debut with Oakland in 2019 but didn’t appear in the Majors this past season. Neuse saw sparing action in his brief debut, taking 61 trips to the plate and batting .250/.295/.304 with a 31 percent strikeout rate. It wasn’t a particularly encouraging debut, but Neuse posted big numbers in his last season of Triple-A ball, hitting .317/.389/.550 with 27 big flies — good for a 126 wRC+.

Sheldon Neuse | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Neuse has seen some time at second base, but his best position is probably third base, which left him blocked by Matt Chapman in Oakland. His presence gives the Dodgers something of a fallback option in the event that Justin Turner ultimately decides to sign elsewhere, but it’s unlikely that Neuse’s acquisition in any way closes the door on a reunion with Turner. Neuse has a pair of minor league options remaining, making him the type of depth the Dodgers tend to stockpile: a formerly high draft pick who’s a bit old to be a prospect now but has some defensive versatility and a solid upper-minors track record at the plate.

Turning to the minor league pieces in the swap, the A’s will acquire Thomas, a 26-year-old corner outfielder with plenty of power but some swing-and-miss tendencies that limit his overall upside t the plate. The former 13th-round pick hit .236/.308/.443 (108 wRC+) in a Double-A environment that proved to be a hitters’ wasteland in 2019 and batted .285/.355/.497 a year prior in Class-A Advanced.

Thomas went unselected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, illustrating that he’s far from a premium prospect, but he’s a near-MLB bat with a career .219 ISO (slugging minus average) in the minors. It’s conceivable that he could emerge as a big league option in 2021-22.

Varland, 24, was the Athletics’ fourth-round pick back in 2018 and still has just 64 1/3 professional innings under his belt. He didn’t rank prominently among Oakland’s top prospects, though Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs gives him the potential for an above-average heater and slider — albeit with work to do in terms of control and improvement of a third pitch. Varland pitched just 26 1/3 innings at the Class-A Advanced level in 2019, working to a 2.39 ERA and 4.00 FIP with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio and 37 percent ground-ball rate.

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