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Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders

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From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.

On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).

But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.

Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?

Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.

The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.

Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.

Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.

To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.

There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.

Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.

Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.

On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.

With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.

White Sox, Dodgers Among Potential Brad Hand Suitors

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Count the White Sox and Dodgers among the suitors for closer Brad Hand, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Along with the Blue Jays and Mets, Hand now has a decent cadre of clubs interested in his services.

The price point for Hand’s eventual contract figures to be of unique interest after all 30 clubs surprisingly passed on claiming his one-year, $10MM option. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne wrote just yesterday, “…the 30-year-old is a three-time All-Star who remained one of baseball’s most effective relievers a season ago. While Hand’s average fastball did drop from 92.7 mph to 91.4, he still recorded a 2.05 ERA with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate and a 4.7 percent walk rate over 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities.”

The White Sox make for a natural suitor as they continue to wrench open their window of contention. They know Hand well from his time in their division, and incumbent closer Alex Colomé is also a free agent. Tony La Russa’s club is well-stocked in southpaws with fast-rising rookie Garrett Crochet coming off a very impressive initial Major League showing, as well as Aaron Bummer, who might be the premier wormkiller in the game. Jace Fry has also been a productive southpaw for the ChiSox with a 4.07 FIP, 29.6 percent strikeout rate, 13.7 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate over the past three seasons. To add Hand to that group may seem gluttonous, but slotting him in as the closer would allow Chicago to continue to use Fry and Bummer situationally while protecting Crochet’s usage.

The Dodgers have secured quite a bit of help in their bullpen recently with the signing of Tommy Kahnle and the re-signing of Blake Treinen. Of course, Kahnle is unlikely to pitch much – if at all – in 2021, and Treinen was part of the group last year. Besides, if there’s a question mark for the champs heading into the 2021 season, it centers on the longevity of incumbent closer Kenley Jansen. Hand would give the Dodgers a plethora of options in yet another facet of the ballgame.

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen

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The Dodgers have re-signed right-handed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee that includes an $8MM club option or a $1.5MM buyout for 2023, Bob Nightengale of USA Today was among those to report. Treinen is a client of Apex Baseball. MLBTR predicted he would land a two-year, $14.5MM guarantee at the beginning of the offseason.

Treinen was something of a buy-low pickup for the Dodgers last winter, though they did have to guarantee the former Athletics standout $10MM. While he was then coming off a disappointing season in Oakland, the move paid off handsomely for the World Series-winning Dodgers, who got 25 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with a 20.6 percent strikeout rate, 7.5 percent walk rate, and a tremendous 64 percent groundball rate from Treinen. The 32-year-old continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball along the way.

Putting aside his issues in 2019, Treinen has been one of the game’s most productive relievers throughout his career. In all, Treinen has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 23.3 strikeout percentage and a 9.4 percent walk rate in 425 2/3 major league innings. At his best, Treinen – also a former National – gave the A’s 80 1/3 frames of 0.78 ERA ball in 2018. While Treinen does have 72 saves on his resume, he has so far served as a setup man for the Dodgers, who continue to rely on Kenley Jansen as their game-ending answer.

Treinen should keep working as a bridge to Jansen in 2021, and the Dodgers will continue to feature a formidable bullpen even beyond those two. The Dodgers’ relief corps finished the 2020 campaign with a National League-best 2.74 ERA, and though Jake McGee turned in an excellent year and is now a free agent, they did add former All-Star Corey Knebel earlier this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Notes: Kluber, Turner, Duvall, Puig

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It’s confirmed that free-agent right-hander Corey Kluber will hold a showcase for interested teams on Jan. 13 in Florida, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kluber, a former Cleveland and Texas hurler who missed most of the previous two seasons because of a forearm fracture and shoulder problems, has gone through “a normal winter workout program and has begun to throw off a mound,” tweets the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who reports that the two-time AL Cy Young winner has generated interest from approximately 12 teams this offseason. Kluber hasn’t pitched a full season since 2018, but the now-34-year-old did log a 2.89 ERA in 215 innings then.

  • Third baseman Justin Turner is looking for a four-year contract, but the Dodgers don’t want to go above two years, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. Turner spent the previous seven seasons as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he went from afterthought to star. The problem is that he’s now 36 years old, so the Dodgers (and other teams) may not be all that eager to commit to Turner on a long-term basis. MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Turner would ink a two-year, $24MM deal.
  • The Marlins are interested in outfielder Adam Duvall, Craig Mish of Sportsnet tweets. The 32-year-old ex-Red spent the previous two-plus seasons in Atlanta, where he batted .231/.290/488 with 26 home runs in 396 plate appearances. As a Brave, Duvall was a powerful league-average hitter (100 wRC+), but that wasn’t enough for the team to tender him a contract earlier this winter, when it non-tendered him in lieu of paying him $4MM-plus in arbitration.
  • Speaking of the Marlins, they offered Yasiel Puig a $2MM base salary with “tons of incentives” during free agency a winter ago, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Puig didn’t end up signing with them or any other team in 2020. He did agree to a deal with the Braves in July, but that deal fell apart thanks to a positive COVID-19 test. Now that he’s healthy, though, Puig is back on MLB teams’ radars – including Miami’s.

Liam Hendriks Visits Blue Jays

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Free agent Liam Hendriks visited the Blue Jays’ training complex in Dunedin today, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 31-year-old (32 in February) is unquestionably the best reliever available on the open market and has been quite arguably the best reliever in the sport over the past two seasons.

Hendriks had been loosely tied to the Blue Jays in recent weeks, but today’s visit seems to underscore the seriousness of those talks. Toronto has been connected to virtually every prominent free agent and trade target available this winter. It seems likely they’ll bring in at least one key player from outside the organization.

It remains to be seen whether Hendriks, who pitched for Toronto between 2014-15, will be among the Jays’ noteworthy additions. The Mets, Dodgers, White Sox and Astros have also been tied to the right-hander at various points this offseason. Chicago remains in play for Hendriks, reiterates Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Houston is still “all over him,” hears Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The Dodgers’ “strong interest” in signing Hendriks also persists, adds Robert Murray of Fansided. It’s clear Hendriks is finding rather robust interest, which should aid his attempt to land the four-year contract he seeks.

Dodgers Interested In DJ LeMahieu

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While the Yankees continue to be the team most prominently linked to DJ LeMahieu, other clubs continue to linger as alternate possibilities for the free agent infielder.  The includes the reigning World Series champions, as David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports said earlier this week during an MLB Network appearance that the Dodgers “are definitely in talks with LeMahieu.”

According to various reports, LeMahieu and the Yankees are separated by one year and over $25MM in contract talks — enough of a gap that it certainly presents opportunity for other big-spending teams to get involved.  The Blue Jays have been considered to be the Yankees’ chief rivals to sign LeMahieu, with the Mets and Astros also involved at various points this offseason, but the Dodgers could suddenly loom as potential favorites if they made a full-on push to land the All-Star.

Since Los Angeles already has over $197MM on the books in projected 2021 payroll, signing LeMahieu would surely put the Dodgers over the $210MM luxury tax threshold.  The club could look to make some trades elsewhere to free up money and avoid a tax payment, or the Dodgers could simply take a fairly minimal one-year hit (a 20% charge on every dollar spent between $210MM-$230MM) in order to further reinforce the lineup for another title run with the addition of LeMahieu’s bat.  With Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, and Joe Kelly all potentially set for free agency in the 2021-22 offseason, L.A. will suddenly have lot of payroll space available if it wishes to duck back under the tax threshold next winter.

The Dodgers are obviously very familiar with LeMahieu from his days as the Rockies’ regular second baseman, though he has taken his game to an MVP-caliber over two seasons with the Yankees.  LeMahieu’s ability to also play third base and first base make him a good fit for a Los Angeles team that prizes multi-positional players, and it could make him a perfect (and more versatile) replacement for another free agent in Justin Turner.

It has been a pretty quiet offseason overall for the Dodgers, but the club isn’t thought to be under any of the financial restraints that are seemingly holding back a lot of teams this winter.  With this kind of payroll flexibility available, the Dodgers could be content to wait out the market, both because they’re already loaded with talent and because players like LeMahieu in search of big paydays have a relatively short list of teams that can meet their asking price.

It’s worth noting that LeMahieu rejected the Yankees’ qualifying offer, and Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman usually stays away from free agents that come attached to draft pick compensation.  However, AJ Pollock represents one such external QO signing during Friedman’s tenure in Los Angeles, as the Dodgers surrendered what ended up being the 34th overall pick in the 2019 draft when they signed Pollock to a four-year deal in January 2019.

Phillies Acquire Jose Alvarado In Three-Team Trade With Rays, Dodgers

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The Rays, Phillies, and Dodgers are in combination on a three-team deal, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links).  As part of the swap, left-hander Jose Alvarado will go from the Rays to the Phillies, and minor league first baseman Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations will go from the Dodgers to Tampa Bay.  The Phils announced that left-hander Garrett Cleavinger has been sent to Los Angeles to complete the Dodgers’ end of the trade.

Alvarado is the most well-known name involved, and the southpaw will join a Philadelphia bullpen that posted dire numbers in 2020.  At his best during four seasons in Tampa, Alvarado was a major weapon for the Rays, most notably during a 2018 season that saw him post a 2.39 ERA and 11.3 K/9 over 64 relief innings and 70 games.

Injuries limited Alvarado in both 2019 and 2020, however, as he managed only a 5.08 ERA, 1.58 K/BB rate and 39 innings.  While Alvarado still missed a lot of bats to the tune of a 12.0 K/9, a lack of control (7.6 BB/9) counter-acted those punchouts.  Shoulder inflammation limited Alvarado to only nine regular-season innings in 2020, but he was able to return for the ALCS and toss 1 2/3 scoreless innings to contribute to the Rays’ victory over the Astros.

Alvarado is still only 25 years old and is controllable for three seasons via the arbitration process, so the Phillies are hoping there’s plenty of upside left.  Beyond a general need for any sort of bullpen help, Philadelphia was also particularly short on left-handers, so Alvarado immediately becomes the club’s top southpaw option.  Alvarado has been just about equally good against left-handed (career .600 OPS) and right-handed (.622 OPS) batters during his four MLB seasons.

In moving Alvarado, the Rays open up a 40-man roster spot that was needed for the completion of the Blake Snell trade with the Padres, so that deal could be officially announced soon.  There is also a financial element to the swap from Tampa Bay’s end, as Alvarado was projected to earn roughly $1.05MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Cleavinger made his MLB debut in 2020, tossing two-thirds of an inning in a single appearances for Philadelphia.  A third-round pick for the Orioles in the 2015 draft, Cleavinger was dealt to the Phillies as part of the Jeremy Hellickson trade in July 2017.  Working exclusively as a reliever throughout his pro career, Cleavinger has a 4.08 ERA, 2.26 K/BB rate, and 12.0 K/9 over 220 1/3 innings in the Baltimore and Philadelphia farm system, though he has never pitched at the Triple-A level.

Paulson was a 13th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2018 draft, and the USC product has hit .253/.373/.464 over 778 plate appearances during his brief pro career, reaching the high-A level in 2019.

Dodgers Sign Tommy Kahnle To Two-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Dodgers have officially announced the signing.

DECEMBER 23: The Dodgers and right-hander Tommy Kahnle are in agreement on a two-year deal that will reportedly guarantee the right-hander $4.75MM and allow him to earn an additional $750K via incentives. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the agreement, which will pay Kahnle $750K in 2021 and $3.45MM in 2022 (as reported by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, on Twitter). Kahnle is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Tommy Kahnle | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kahnle, 31, pitched just one inning with the Yankees this season before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. The Yankees outrighted him off the 40-man roster at season’s end, at which point Kahnle elected free agency. He has five-plus years of Major League service time, meaning he was scheduled to become a free agent following the 2021 season anyhow. Given that he’s unlikely to pitch much next season and could miss the entire year, it was only logical that the Yankees cut him from the 40-man roster.

A reunion between the Yankees and Kahnle hasn’t seemed likely with the Yanks seemingly intent on remaining south of the luxury tax threshold, as a backloaded two-year deal for Kahnle would come with some degree of luxury ramifications based on its average annual value. His two-year deal will follow a recent trend of multi-year contracts for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Recent examples of such contracts include Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays, Michael Pineda’s (first) two-year deal with the Twins and Drew Smyly’s two-year pact with the Cubs.

In Kahnle, the Dodgers will be getting a potential impact arm to add to their late-inning mix in 2022, when Kenley Jansen’s five-year pact will have run its course. Joe Kelly’s three-year pact will also be up, though L.A. holds a $12MM club option on him for the 2022 campaign. Although Kahnle struggled through a disastrous 2018 season, he was terrific in 2016-17 and quite good in 2019 as well. He only pitched one (scoreless) inning in 2020 before going down with the injury that led to his surgery, however.

All told, Kahnle carries a 3.48 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 175 2/3 innings dating back to the 2016 season. Along the way, he’s averaged 12.4 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 0.92 home runs per nine innings pitched. The hard-throwing Kahnle has averaged 96.8 mph on his heater in that time, which has helped contribute to an excellent 15.9 percent swinging-strike rate and a 32.8 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

With Jansen and Kelly perhaps both off the roster by the time Kahnle is able to pitch for the Dodgers, he’ll be joining what should be a much different-looking relief corps. Flamethrowing Brusdar Graterol will be given the opportunity to further work his way into the late-inning mix this year and could factor prominently into that group. Right-hander Dylan Floro and lefties Victor Gonzalez, Adam Kolarek and Scott Alexander are all under club control into the 2022 season as well.

Howie Kendrick Retires

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Free-agent infielder Howie Kendrick announced Monday on his Instagram account that he has decided to retire, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was among those to report.

This concludes an outstanding career for the 37-year-old Kendrick, who entered the professional ranks as a 10th-round pick of the Angels in 2002. Kendrick was regularly a formidable offensive presence in their uniform, even earning his lone All-Star nod in 2011. The Angels wound up trading Kendrick to the Dodgers in 2014 for left-hander Andrew Heaney, though Kendrick’s numbers dipped somewhat in their uniform. Kendrick’s Dodgers days concluded when they dealt him to the Phillies in 2016. His tenure in Philly also didn’t last long, as the club traded him to the Nationals during the ensuing season.

The move to Washington couldn’t have worked out much better for Kendrick, who was an integral part of the Nats from the 2017-19 regular seasons. Above all, his contributions during the team’s first-ever run to a World Series title in 2019 will never be forgotten by the franchise or its fans. Kendrick hit a grand slam in Game 5 of that year’s NLDS against the Dodgers, which helped the Nationals to a series-deciding win, and continued his heroics during the Fall Classic. With the Nats in danger of losing Game 7 to the Astros, Kendrick smacked a two-run homer in the seventh inning that gave the Nats a 3-2 lead they never relinquished.

Last season didn’t go well for Washington or Kendrick, whose numbers slid during an injury-shortened campaign, though he’ll always be regarded as a key component of their title-winning club and someone who was consistently a quality producer. Kendrick slashed .294/.337/.430 with 127 home runs and 126 stolen bases across 6,421 big league plate appearances, and he made upward of $71.6MM during his time in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference. MLBTR wishes Kendrick the best in retirement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Tommy Lasorda

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DECEMBER 20: Fortunately, Lasorda’s condition has improved over the past few weeks, relays Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He was transferred out of the intensive care unit late last month and hopes to be released from the hospital on Wednesday.

NOVEMBER 16: Legendary Dodger Tommy Lasorda was hospitalized and admitted to intensive care Sunday in Orange County, Calif., the team announced. Lasorda is “resting comfortably,” according to the Dodgers, though his family has requested privacy.

The 93-year-old Lasorda is among the most recognizable and accomplished figures in the Dodgers’ storied history. He began as a minor league pitcher for the franchise in 1949, when it was still in Brooklyn, and saw major league action with the Dodgers from 1954-55. Lasorda’s last MLB season was in 1956 with the Kansas City Athletics.

Once his playing career ended, Lasorda went into scouting and coaching in the early 1960s with the Dodgers – which proved to be a wise move. In 1976, he became the Dodgers’ manager and held that position for two decades. The Dodgers went 1,599-1,439 under Lasorda during the regular season, won eight division titles, took home four NL pennants and earned two World Series championships. Lasorda won Manager of the Year honors twice during his run atop the Los Angeles dugout, and the Dodgers later retired his No. 2.

Lasorda, who ranks 22nd all-time in managerial wins, was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1997. He has continued to work with the Dodgers as a special advisor since his managerial tenure ended.  We at MLBTR wish Lasorda a speedy recovery and hope to see him back with the Dodgers soon.

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