Juan Soto’s free agency will be the primary narrative this offseason until he chooses his next landing spot, though there’s no indication that things are close. The 26-year-old superstar began meeting with teams this week but is still in the early stages of the process. For instance, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that while the Red Sox feel their three-hour meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras was “productive,” it was more introductory and informative than anything else. The two sides did not discuss years and dollars; the Sox pitched Soto on their plans for the future, their upcoming wave of high-end prospects and other aspects of the organization, while Soto sought to learn about their player evaluation methods, Fenway Park’s facilities, etc. It’s common for early meetings of this nature for top-end free agents to be introductory in nature, so this isn’t necessarily unique to Soto.
The Red Sox haven’t been involved in the deep waters of free agency in recent offseasons. Trevor Story is the lone nine-figure expenditure for the Sox in the past five years. Since signing David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have only gone beyond two years on a free agent four times (Story, J.D. Martinez, Masataka Yoshida and Nathan Eovaldi). Given that, it’s not surprising to see one of the elements Soto hoped to gauge (per McAdam) was the team’s “commitment to winning.”
That said, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that the Red Sox are approaching their pursuit of Soto with a level of “intent” that we’ve not seen from Boston “in some time.” Intent alone won’t win the bidding, of course, but the Sox have not been characterized as major players for top-end free agents in recent years. All indications this offseason seem to signal a shift in direction.
The incumbent Yankees and crosstown Mets are still perceived by many as the favorites to win the Soto bidding, once formal offers begin rolling in. To this point, it doesn’t seem the process has reached that point. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and topping Aaron Judge’s $40MM annual salary in order to keep Soto, placing their baseline comfort level somewhere in the $520MM range overall. Most expectations are that Soto will exceed that mark by a fair margin, but it’s a notable starting point all the same.
Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at at the Blue Jays’ interest in Soto, noting that as was the case with Shohei Ohtani last offseason, ownership views him as an exception to any other offseason budgetary plans. Toronto’s pursuit of Soto is not an indication that if the Jays miss out on the star slugger, they’ll pivot and spend $500-700MM elsewhere in free agency. Within his previously referenced column, Heyman doubles down on prior reporting that the Blue Jays plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of Soto.
That’s not necessarily the case with all of his expected suitors. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Dodgers “won’t chase after Soto,” having already committed to nine more years of Ohtani and thus potentially restricting them in the event that Soto eventually needs to spend more time at designated hitter. They’ll be opportunistic and perhaps jump into the fray if the market doesn’t develop as Soto hopes, though that seems unlikely, given the robust demand for his services and a potential Bronx-versus-Queens bidding war.
Up until last winter, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that was generally how Los Angeles had approached the market under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though they regularly fielded one of the game’s largest payrolls and most star-studded rosters, most of the Dodgers’ star power over the years was acquired on the trade market (e.g. Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) or developed in-house (e.g. Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager prior to his free agent departure). Freddie Freeman was the lone big-ticket free agent acquisition, and he came on board with a deferral-laden deal after an extended stay on the open market. That scenario almost certainly won’t happen with Soto.
As it stands, there’s still no expected timetable for when Soto might reach a decision or when offers might be presented in earnest. The fact that the Red Sox didn’t even delve into numbers speaks to the current preliminary stage of the bidding process. It’s always possible Soto could decide he wants to accelerate the process and have a team by the end of the month, but a decision at some point in December feels likelier.
