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Dodgers, Tyler Glasnow Finalizing Extension

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The Dodgers’ acquisition of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays was contingent upon the former agreeing to a contract extension, and a new deal between Glasnow and L.A. is now nearly complete. The Wasserman client will reportedly earn an additional $110MM over four years on top of the $25MM he’d been slated to earn. Glasnow will earn $90MM from 2025-27, and the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on the 2028 season. If they decline their end, Glasnow has a $20MM player option (thus accounting for the $110MM in guaranteed new money). There’s no deferred money on the contract, which will be considered a five-year, $135MM deal for luxury tax purposes (equating to a $27MM per year hit).

Glasnow, 30, stands as the first notable starting pitching upgrade the Dodgers have made this offseason. His acquisition gives them a top-of-the-rotation talent to bolster the roster — albeit one who’s spent more time on the injured list than the active roster in his career. Last season’s 21 starts and 120 innings were both career-high marks for the 6’8″ right-hander, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, a forearm strain, an elbow strain and a significant oblique strain that kept him out for two months to begin the 2023 season.

When he’s been healthy, however, Glasnow has been nothing short of excellent. Since being traded from the Pirates, his original organization, to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer heist, Glasnow has worked to a 3.20 earned run average, fanned an enormous 34.1% of his opponents and coupled that with a sharp 7.8% walk rate. He’s long had better-than-average grounder rates, but last year’s 52.1% mark was a career-best. He also notched a huge 16.5% swinging-strike rate that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.

It’s a considerable bet to make on a pitcher who’s never topped 120 innings — easily the largest contract ever for anyone with such a limited track record of durability. There is, of course, a lot more nuance to Glasnow’s injury history than that 120 number, which MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes outlined in an article this afternoon for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  By the way, if you sign up for Front Office, we’ll be happy to send you any recent articles.

The four-year, $110MM in new money and effective five-year, $135MM term of Glasnow’s contract (for luxury tax purposes) roughly fall in line with previous extensions for high-end pitchers with injury concerns. Jacob deGrom inked a four-year, $120.5MM extension several years ago (prior to opting out and signing with the Rangers), and the contract also generally aligns with the five-year, $145MM term on Chris Sale’s Red Sox extensions. Certainly, the Dodgers will be hoping for better results from their own investment.

The rotation in Los Angeles is slated to consist of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, at present. Emmet Sheehan is likely in line for the fourth spot, while Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough and others battle it out for the fifth spot on the staff. Of course, L.A. is widely expected to continue adding to the starting five, with reported targets including free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Lucas Giolito, in addition to trade target Dylan Cease. It stands to reason there are other pitchers in both markets currently being eyed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the Dodger front office.

From a payroll perspective, the Dodgers were already squarely into luxury-tax territory, sitting at a projected $251MM, per Roster Resource. Adding an additional $2MM to account for the new tax hit on Glasnow will push them up to about $253MM, which places them $4MM shy of the second tier of penalty.

The Dodgers’ bottom-line payroll is another story entirely, thanks not only the $680MM in deferred money on Shohei Ohtani’s contract but also the $115MM in deferred money on Mookie Betts’ 12-year deal and the $57MM in deferrals on Freddie Freeman’s six-year contract. They still owe well south of $200MM in terms of actual player salary for the upcoming season, even when factoring in projected arbitration salaries. As such, there’s ample room to continue adding significant pieces to the roster, so long as the Dodgers don’t mind being taxed at increasingly steep rates. They’re a third-time luxury payor, so they’ll be taxed at 62% for any dollars spent from $257MM to $277MM, at 95% from $277MM to $297MM, and a hefty 110% for any dollars spent thereafter.

Beyond landing the biggest fish in the history of free agency and acquiring Glasnow and Margot, the Dodgers have also re-signed Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly, brought Daniel Hudson back on a minor league contract and traded lefty Victor Gonzalez to the Yankees in what’s been an active offseason so far. With clear needs in the rotation and perhaps on the bench and in the bullpen, it’s highly unlikely that Friedman, Gomes & co. will consider this their final significant deal of the winter.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the extension was all but finalized. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

Dodgers, Rays Discussing Deal Involving Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot

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December 14: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports today that the two sides are still discussing a trade. He says that “word is” the Dodgers “may also be” interested in an extension. It’s unclear what level of interest Glasnow has in an extension.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

Ohtani Contract Contains Conditional Opt-Out Clause Based On Ownership, Front Office

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Shohei Ohtani’s landmark contract with the Dodgers has prompted endless discussion, debate and criticism due to the unprecedented scope of the deferrals it contains, but that’s far from the only fascinating wrinkle of the 10-year deal.

Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports that the contract contains language “that assures the club will make good on its promise to use the savings he created to build a competitive team around him.” Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, tells Verducci that Ohtani asked him early in the free-agent process about whether it was possible to defer the majority or entirety of his salary in order to give his club more present-day payroll flexibility.

As far as we at MLBTR can tell, that’s the first clause of its nature in any player contract. Further specifics of the clause and the manner in which it will be enforced remain unclear. The Dodgers’ reported pursuits of a trade involving Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot, plus their recent meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, seem to signal that the team is indeed taking steps to satisfy that condition, though.

The luxury-tax hit associated with Ohtani’s contract is $46.06MM, according to Verducci, which sits roughly in line with expectations at the outset of his free agency. But, the manner in which the contract was announced has created substantial criticism. It’s fair to wonder if, had the contract been announced as 10 years and $460MM deferred with interest, it would have invited the same backlash as the initial announcement of a $700MM deal … which was later reported to be 97% deferred.

The initial $700MM figure looks good in a recruiting pitch for future CAA clients, but the league’s approximate $460MM valuation of the net present value is a different story entirely. The MLBPA’s valuations are a bit lower yet; Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the union values the contract at $437,830,563, but the luxury-tax hit will be based upon the league’s calculations.

There’s been plenty of talk about the contract as a means of gaming the luxury tax system, although the $46.06MM CBT hit is in line with the league’s valuation of the deal. If anything, the contract is less about circumventing the luxury tax and more about artificially tamping down the team’s actual, bottom-line payrolls from 2024-33.

Unprecedented contractual language doesn’t stop with the competitive team clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the contract states the following: “If specific change in Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.”

The conditional opt-out is applicable to controlling owner Mark Walter and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, per a report from Beth Harris and Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. If either Walter or Friedman leave the organization, Ohtani would gain the opt-out possibility. Alden González of ESPN tweets that would go into effect at the end of any season in which Walter or Friedman departed, so there’s no possibility of Ohtani opting out midseason.

It’s nevertheless a noteworthy inclusion, particularly in the case of Friedman. While the front office leader isn’t in any immediate jeopardy based on the team’s excellence over the course of his decade-long run, tying his contractual status to that of the team’s best player for the next 10 years is a bold move by ownership. Friedman signed an extension of undisclosed length in November 2019. It isn’t clear if he has signed any subsequent deals, though it’s hard to envision him departing the organization any time soon.

Given the massive slate of deferred money — Ohtani will be paid just $2MM annually from 2024-33, with the remaining $680MM paid out from 2034-43 — it’s difficult to see Ohtani opting out at any juncture, unless there’s language that allows a portion of those deferrals to be paid out in conjunction with the opt-out.

It’s technically feasible that if Ohtani is able to return to the mound in 2025, he could reestablish himself as a viable top-of-the-rotation starter and have even greater earning power than the ~$460MM net present value of his current contract. However, if he’s only been paid out around 1-2% of the overall guarantee at the time of a theoretical opt-out opportunity, it’d still be difficult to walk away from the deal.

Then again, Ohtani showed with his original move to MLB (and to a lesser extent with the eye-popping nature of his current deferrals) that money is not necessarily his top priority in any contract. He’s also reportedly earning as much as $50MM annually in terms of endorsements and other marketing opportunities, so the notion that he’d leave a staggering portion of his record contract on the table in order to pursue a return to free agency isn’t as far-fetched as it would be for many other players.

News of the (as we know it) unprecedented out clause in Ohtani’s contract will invite ample speculation. Fans on social media have already wondered about ownership changes, front office changes, managerial changes or perhaps even trades of star teammates like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. With the contract itself not plainly spelling out the nature of the change, there’s no way of knowing the specific nature of personnel change that would trigger this right for Ohtani, however. The clause is further proof of the lengths to which the Dodgers — and presumably other teams — were willing to go in order to secure the two-way star’s generational talents.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already indicated that the terms of Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers were proposed by Ohtani and his agents, and that the Giants were comfortable effectively matching them. Presumably if Ohtani’s camp included the stipulations about investing the present-day savings and the conditional out clause in the terms with the Dodgers, those factors were also present in discussions with the Giants, Blue Jays and other finalists for his services.

One other note from the AP: while the Dodgers have already announced the contract, it has not yet gone to MLB for official approval. As of Wednesday evening, the deal still takes the form of a letter of agreement between Ohtani and the Dodgers.

MLBTR Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Clayton Kershaw “Doing Really Well” Early In Recovery From Shoulder Procedure

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Free agent starter Clayton Kershaw spoke publicly for the first time since announcing he underwent shoulder surgery on November 3. In a chat with David Vassegh of 570 AM’s Dodger Talk, the three-time Cy Young winner indicated he’s recovering nicely in the first five weeks after the operation.

“I think I’m doing really well. I don’t have a lot to compare it to. I’ve never had surgery before, but I really do feel great, all things considered,” Kershaw told Vassegh. “I’m doing a lot of movement stuff now, starting to strengthen it. … I’m excited to pitch again, and I really do think it’ll be this summer at some point. I feel good about that.”

A summer return is in line with what Kershaw projected in the immediate aftermath of the procedure. It’s nevertheless encouraging to hear he remains on that track after the earliest stages of his rehab process. While the 35-year-old has loosely floated the possibility of retiring in previous offseasons, he reiterated this evening that he’s not considering stepping away at this point.

Kershaw indicated he has the support of his family to continue playing. He added that he didn’t want to conclude his career on what would’ve been a very sour note. Kershaw, working with clearly diminished stuff as he pitched through the shoulder pain, was hammered for six runs without getting out of the first inning in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks. Arizona swept that series en route to the pennant.

The 10-time All-Star declined to speculate on where he expects to play in 2024 or when he might sign. It’s hard to envision the career-long Dodger in another uniform. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has repeatedly expressed that the organization would welcome Kershaw back for as long as he wants to continue pitching.

L.A. has Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler anchoring the rotation. Ryan Pepiot currently projects as the #3 starter, but his name has been floated in chatter about a potential trade for Rays ace Tyler Glasnow. Pitchers like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough are in the mix at the back end.

Regardless of Kershaw’s decision, the Dodgers figure to bring in multiple starters. If Kershaw were to re-sign, he’d join Dustin May as potential midseason injury returnees. May underwent a flexor tendon procedure in early July. Tony Gonsolin, who had Tommy John surgery in late August, appears likely to miss the entire season.

Dodgers, Daniel Hudson In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers and right-hander Daniel Hudson have agreed to reunite on a minor league deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The righty will earn $2MM if he cracks the roster, with another $2MM available via incentives.

Hudson, 37 in March, is coming off a mostly lost season in 2023. After tearing the ACL in his left knee in June of 2022, he was rehabbing over the winter but also developed some ankle tendinitis as well as patellar tendinitis in the knee. He started the season on the injured list and wasn’t activated until late June. After just three appearances, he suffered a sprained MCL in his right knee and landed back on the IL. He wasn’t able to return and then said in October that he was undecided about whether he would return for another year or hang up his cleats.

It seems he has now decided to give it another go and has returned to the Dodgers, with whom he signed going into 2022. Prior to the injury woes, he was utterly dominant. He tossed 24 1/3 innings that year with a 2.22 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 53.4% ground ball rate. He was so impressive that the Dodgers extended him into 2023 after his torn ACL.

That obviously didn’t pan out but it’s understandable why they would still be interested in him. In this case, they haven’t even guaranteed him a roster spot or his salary, giving them a chance to walk away if his health is an issue again in the spring. But if he’s back in form, it would be a nice low-cost boost to the bullpen. He has a 3.79 ERA in his career, having thrown almost 800 innings dating back to his 2009 debut.

The Dodgers have generally shown a willingness to give deals to injured players they like, often with incentives that allow the player greater potential earning power while keeping the club uncommitted. Alex Reyes, Blake Treinen and Jimmy Nelson are some players that have signed such deals in recent years and now Hudson will be in the mix on a similar pact for 2024.

Dodgers Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto On Tuesday

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Dec. 13: Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were all present at Dodger Stadium yesterday for the team’s recruitment pitch to Yamamoto, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken  Rosenthal of The Athletic. Dorsey tweets that Will Smith, Yamamoto’s potential batterymate if he signs in Los Angeles, was also present.

Dec. 12: The Dodgers met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto today as the star right-hander continues his North American tour, reports Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (on X). They’re the sixth team known to chat with the 25-year-old free agent.

Mets officials flew to Japan to speak with Yamamoto last week. The pitcher and his camp are now traveling around the U.S. and Canada as they interview with other teams in the mix. Yamamoto met with the Giants two days ago and the Yankees yesterday. He’ll chat with the Red Sox and Blue Jays later in the week.

After signing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are on the hunt for rotation help. L.A. has been linked to virtually every starting pitcher of note in free agency or trade. The Dodgers have Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller locked into two rotation spots. They figure to at least two starters to a middle to back end that includes Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough while Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May work back from surgery.

Yamamoto is widely viewed as the best remaining free agent. He is increasingly expected to command a contract approaching or exceeding $300MM, to say nothing of the posting fee an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes.

While Yamamoto is easily the top pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason, he’s not the only one. Left-hander Shota Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, was posted by the Yokohama BayStars. He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA with an excellent 29.2% strikeout rate over 148 innings. In an appearance on MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi indicated the Dodgers had some level of interest in Imanaga. Teams like the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers have also been tied to the southpaw at points this offseason.

Roster Resource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number for 2024 just south of $220MM. That leaves them $17MM below the base threshold and well shy of their estimated $267MM CBT number from last season.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

How Much Will Yamamoto Be Guaranteed (Excluding Posting Fee)?
$301-325MM 27.43% (5,257 votes)
$276-300MM 21.81% (4,180 votes)
$251-275MM 13.89% (2,663 votes)
$226-250MM 10.73% (2,056 votes)
$326-350MM 10.09% (1,933 votes)
$200-225MM 6.64% (1,272 votes)
More than $350MM 6.63% (1,270 votes)
Less than $200MM 2.79% (535 votes)
Total Votes: 19,166

 

Where Will Yamamoto Sign?
Yankees 22.48% (3,933 votes)
Dodgers 21.92% (3,834 votes)
Mets 17.29% (3,024 votes)
Giants 13.31% (2,329 votes)
Red Sox 11.96% (2,092 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 6.91% (1,209 votes)
Blue Jays 6.12% (1,071 votes)
Total Votes: 17,492

 

Julio Urias Case Being Reviewed By Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office

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Law enforcement officials have completed their investigation into the domestic violence allegations against former Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias and turned their findings over to the L.A. County District Attorney’s office to determine whether charges will be filed, per a report from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. There’s no timeline for when a decision will be reached at this time.

The 27-year-old Urias, who became a free agent at season’s end, was suspended under MLB’s domestic violence policy back in 2019, although he was never criminally charged in that instance; his suspension came after a league investigation into his case. The report from Harris indicates that law enforcement has obtained cell phone footage of the current alleged incident involving Urias and a woman, which reportedly took place near L.A.’s BMO Stadium after an LAFC Major League Soccer match.

Urias was arrested on the night in question and released the following day on $50,000 bail. Major League Baseball placed him on paid administrative leave two days after the alleged incident, and he did not return prior to the end of the season. If Urias is ultimately suspended, any money paid out during his time on administrative leave would be rescinded.

MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy grants the commissioner’s office the power to levy discipline even in the absence of criminal charges, so it’s possible that Urias could face a suspension even if the DA’s office does not bring forth charges. He would be the first player to be suspended twice under that policy since its implementation.

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