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Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Dodgers Seen As Favorites To Sign Ohtani In Free Agency

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  • Shohei Ohtani has long been on the Dodgers’ radar, both when he was a high school player and when he first make the jump from NPB to the majors.  Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes about the Dodgers’ interest in Ohtani, which was first hampered when the Nippon-Ham Fighters convinced him to stay in Japan by letting him be a two-way player.  When Ohtani came to the majors, the Dodgers missed out again because the National League didn’t have the DH available, whereas the Angels could offer Ohtani a two-way opportunity via the designated hitter role.  With Ohtani set for free agency this winter, there is a widespread belief among many in the game (including several anonymous agents and rival executives) that the Dodgers will end up landing Ohtani to what is expected to be a record-setting contract.

Dodgers Option Miguel Vargas To Triple-A

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The Dodgers announced that infielder Miguel Vargas has been optioned to Triple-A.  Southpaw Bryan Hudson was also optioned, while righty Yency Almonte was reinstated from the paternity list.  This leaves Los Angeles with an open spot on its active roster, though Chris Taylor is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list after the All-Star break.

There isn’t much surprise to Vargas’ demotion, as manager Dave Roberts hinted yesterday that a move back to Triple-A might be in the cards for the rookie.  A consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, Vargas was one of several youngsters the Dodgers were counting on to fill roster holes, as the team went into 2023 with a mix of proven star veterans and promising minor leaguers.  Stepping in as the regular second baseman, Vargas got off to a solid start that wasn’t entirely reflected by his bottom-line numbers, as he was getting plenty of walks and making lots of hard contact without much batted-ball luck to show for it.

However, Vargas’ production has cratered over the last month.  Over his last 78 plate appearances, Vargas has hit only .079/.221/.175, with just five hits total.  The slump simply became too deep for the Dodgers to ignore, and the 23-year-old will now get at least a brief stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City to try and get himself back on track.

It seems likely that Vargas will be back in the majors at some point this season, though that could depend on how the Dodgers approach the trade deadline.  Shortstop and second base are both big target areas, as while Mookie Betts has continued to post MVP-caliber numbers while filling in at both middle infield spots, L.A. probably prefers to see Betts back in his customary right field spot.  The versatile Taylor can factor into either middle infield position, but he is struggling through his second consecutive year of underwhelming offensive production.

Dodgers Notes: Vargas, Taylor, Kershaw

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The Dodgers could see a shake up in their middle infield following the All Star break. As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, manager Dave Roberts recently told reporters that the club could consider optioning second baseman Miguel Vargas to the minors as he looks to correct his ongoing struggles, noting that “everything is on the table.” While Vargas got off to a solid start in 2023, with a .240/.341/.432 slash line in his first 44 games, he’s been trending downward ever since then. Since May 21,  Vargas has slashed just .139/.250/.287 in 129 plate appearances. While a BABIP of just .158 during that time could explain Vargas’s woes, the 23 year old is also striking out at an elevated 24.8% rate, a major leap from the 17% rate he was punching out over the season’s first two months.

Of course, the Dodgers have struggled to find production in the middle infield this season. Those issues have resulted in the club using outfielder Mookie Betts up the middle more often than usual. After appearing in just 15 games at second base during his first three seasons in LA, Betts has appeared at the keystone in 22 games this season while also recording 16 appearances at shortstop, a position he had never played in the majors prior to 2023. Those depth issues could be alleviated somewhat in the near future, however, as Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times) that utility man Chris Taylor will be activated from the injured list following the All Star break. Taylor, who has ample experience all around the infield and outfield, could add another option in addition to Betts the club can utilize both on the infield dirt and the outfield grass.

  • Sticking with the Dodgers, Roberts told reporters (including Ardaya) that veteran ace Clayton Kershaw was feeling good after throwing a few pitches off the mound earlier today. The club has yet to decide whether or not Kershaw will return when first eligible on July 15, though Roberts previously expressed confidence Kershaw’s stint on the shelf would be a short one. The 2023 campaign has been another fantastic season for Kershaw as the lefty has posted a 2.55 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 95 1/3 innings of work. That inning total puts Kershaw on pace to easily surpass his innings totals from the past three seasons, during which he topped out with last year’s 126 1/3 figure.

Dodgers Place Daniel Hudson On IL With MCL Sprain

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tells reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, they are going to place right-hander Daniel Hudson on the injured list due to a sprained MCL in his right knee. Hudson missed significant time last year and this year due to a torn ACL, though that was in his left knee. Roberts says Hudson will miss “a significant amount of time” but they are “hopeful” he can return this season, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). Roberts tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times that Hudson will miss at least a month or two. The Dodgers subsequently announced the move and that Yency Almonte was placed on the paternity list with Nick Robertson and Alex Vesia recalled in corresponding moves.

It remains to be seen exactly how much time Hudson will miss but it’s undeniably a brutal blow. It was just over a year ago, June 24 of 2022, that Hudson tore the ACL in his left knee, which wiped out the remainder of his 2022 season. That injury kept him on the injured list for the first few months of this year, with the righty just being activated a week ago. He made three scoreless appearances for the club in the past week but is now facing yet another significant absence.

Prior to last year’s injury, Hudson was on pace to have one of his best seasons as a reliever. He had a 2.22 ERA through 25 appearances, striking out 30.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.2% and getting grounders on 53.4% of balls in play. Despite the injury, the Dodgers showed faith that Hudson would be able to come back and contribute in the future. In September of last year, they agreed to an extension, picking up their $6.5MM club option for 2023 while tacking on a 2024 option as well.

That option comes with a $6.5MM base and can reach $7.3MM based on appearances. The exact nature of those escalators aren’t known but it seems fair to conclude he won’t trigger any of them with his limited work this year. The club will then have to decide whether or not to trigger the option, which will undoubtedly be impacted by his health status as the season winds down.

For the club, this is yet another in an extensive series of injuries to their pitching staff. The starting rotation has Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot and Noah Syndergaard currently on the injured list, whereas the relief corps has lost Tyler Cyr, J.P. Feyereisen, Shelby Miller, Jimmy Nelson, Alex Reyes, Blake Treinen and now Hudson to the IL. Despite all those pitching injuries, the club is 48-38 and in possession of a National League Wild Card spot. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman already admitted that the rash of injuries made it more likely the club will seek out pitching reinforcements at the upcoming trade deadline and Hudson’s injury would seemingly only increase those chances.

Dodgers Outright Ricky Vanasco

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Dodgers right-hander Ricky Vanasco cleared outright waivers and has been assigned to Double-A Tulsa, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The log technically indicates that he was outrighted to Triple-A, but Vanasco is listed as active on the team’s Tulsa roster rather than their OKC roster. Whichever affiliate Vanasco lands with, the broader takeaway is that he’ll remain in the organization following his recent DFA but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

Vanasco, 24, has spent the vast majority of his career in the Rangers organization, but the Dodgers acquired him on June 1 after Texas had designated the former 15th-round pick for assignment. Once regarded as one of the more promising pitchers in the Rangers system, his career has been slowed by repeated health troubles. Vanasco posted an outstanding 1.81 ERA in 11 starts back in 2019 but didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and has spent the majority of the 2023 campaign on the shelf as well.

So far in 2023, Vanasco has tossed just 4 1/3 innings, yielding six hits and four walks while also plunking a pair of hitters. All 12 of the batters he’s allowed have come around to score, although only eight have been earned runs. The 2022 season was the lone campaign in which he’s been healthy; he pitched 92 1/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball with a hefty 28.9% strikeout rate but also a concerning 12.7% walk rate.

Vanasco has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level, and it seems he’ll head back to Double-A Tulsa and continue building up there. The Dodgers have had one of the game’s better pitching pipelines in recent years, and they’ll hope to add Vanasco as another success story for their player development group.

Roberts: Pursuing Right-Handed Bat “Makes Sense” For Dodgers

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As is customary, the Dodgers enter deadline season looking to add to the roster. Los Angeles holds the National League’s second Wild Card spot and sits 2 1/2 games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already acknowledged the club is likely to pursue rotation help — and that was before they knew Dustin May would not return this season. Manager Dave Roberts suggested this evening the team could benefit from bringing in a right-handed hitter as well.

“I think a right-handed bat makes sense,” Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). The skipper pointed to the uncertain health status of righty-hitting utility player Chris Taylor as reason to explore outside help. Taylor has been on the injured list for two weeks because of a bone bruise in his right knee. Roberts said over the weekend that he’d be out through the All-Star Break, and tonight’s suggestion about potential external reinforcements could indicate the club is concerned about a fairly lengthy absence.

Even independent of the knee issue, there’s a case for the Dodgers scaling back Taylor’s role. He has hit just .217/.293/.397 with a 35.1% strikeout rate in 636 trips to the plate since the start of last season. Taylor has hit seven homers in 62 at-bats against left-handed pitching this year, but he has had a tough time getting on base consistently against pitchers of either handedness.

The Dodgers are also without Trayce Thompson, who entered the year expected to serve as the right-handed part of a center field platoon with James Outman. Los Angeles has Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Will Smith and the middle infield tandem of Miguel Vargas and Miguel Rojas who hit from the right side. Betts, Martinez and Smith are three of the better hitters in the sport, but Vargas and Rojas have struggled offensively. Backup catcher Austin Barnes isn’t much of a threat at the dish. Righty-swinging fourth outfielder Jonny DeLuca doesn’t have much big league experience.

Los Angeles could cast a wide net positionally if they indeed seek out a right-handed bat. Betts has shown himself capable of manning the middle infield or taking an outfield spot, so he could bounce around to accommodate a new acquisition. That’s also true of Taylor whenever he’s able to return from the injured list.

Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mark Canha and Adam Duvall are among the right-handed hitters who could be available at the deadline with their current teams in uncertain competitive situations. The Reds are fighting for an NL Central title but could still make former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel available as a change-of-scenery candidate given their influx of infield talent.

Senzel hasn’t hit righties at all this year but carries a .373/.422/.627 line in 64 plate appearances against southpaws and can bounce between the infield and outfield. Outfielder Lane Thomas is destroying left-handed pitching for the Nationals this season; he’s controllable through 2025 and would be tough to pry away, but a rebuilding Washington club seems unlikely to take him off the table entirely in trade discussions.

Latest On Noah Syndergaard

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  • Dodgers right-hander Noah Syndergaard could return in the near future, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the LA Times) that Syndergaard is scheduled to throw live batting practice later this week and that, if it goes well, he could advance to a rehab assignment shortly thereafter. Syndergaard struggled mightily to a 7.12 ERA with a 5.55 FIP across 12 starts prior to his placement on the injured list a month ago. Despite those ugly numbers, if Syndergaard has managed to get right during his time on the shelf, he could be an asset to a Dodgers rotation that recently saw Clayton Kershaw head to the IL and Dustin May’s season end with an impending elbow surgery.

Dustin May To Undergo Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Dodgers right-hander Dustin May will undergo surgery on his right elbow to repair the flexor tendon later this month, per a team announcement. The surgery will bring an end to May’s 2023 campaign. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic adds that May will also undergo a Tommy John revision for a Grade 2 UCL sprain, noting that the Dodgers hope May will be able to return midseason in 2024.

May initially went on the injured list back in May with a flexor pronator strain that offered an initial recovery timeline of just four to six weeks. That, of course, didn’t come to pass. LA placed May on the 60-day injured list less than a week later, a move that suggested the injury could be more significant than the club initially believed and pushed the earliest possible date for May’s return until after the All Star break. Now, the question of May’s return to action will be pushed to the 2024 campaign.

It’s a serious blow to the club’s rotation, as May posted an impressive 2.63 ERA (68% better than league average by ERA+) and a 3.27 FIP in 48 innings of work this season prior to his placement on the IL. May is far from the only arm in the club’s rotation picture who’s struggling with injuries or ineffectiveness, as well. Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard are both on the shelf at the moment, while Walker Buehler and Ryan Pepiot have yet to throw a pitch for the club during the 2023 regular season.

Meanwhile, Julio Urias is coming off a six week trip to the IL of his own and has struggled to a 4.94 ERA and 5.30 FIP in the 11 starts he’s made this season. Tony Gonsolin has mostly pitched well this season, with a 3.69 ERA in 61 innings, but has also spent time on the injured list and owns a 9.42 ERA across his last three starts. Youngsters Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone have been tasked with picking up the rotation’s slack to mixed results; while Miller and Sheehan have largely proven successful, Grove and Stone haven’t done the same. Altogether, the quartet of prospects has posted a 6.01 ERA in 106 1/3 innings this season.

The Dodgers were already widely expected to pursue pitching upgrades ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, and today’s news should only increase the club’s urgency in that regard. It’s hard to say with certainty which players will be available, given the number of teams that have yet to commit to selling. That being said, Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly of the Cubs, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals, and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox are among the names that have garnered the most speculation to this point in the season.

Of course, there are plenty of names that would bolster weak Dodgers pitching staff that sports a bullpen ERA of 4.48 (third worst in the NL) in addition to the aforementioned rotation struggles, including relief arms like Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox and Scott Barlow of the Royals. Considering the club’s 47-37 record that puts them just two games back in the NL West and gives them possession of the second NL wild card spot, the Dodgers are well positioned to make impactful adds to their pitching staff over the next few weeks.

In the longer term, May’s injury leaves an additional question mark for the Dodgers as they look ahead to 2024. The club’s starting rotation is slated to lose Kershaw, Urias, and Syndergaard to free agency this offseason. Buehler (who figures to pitch his first full season back from Tommy John surgery next year) and Gonsolin seem poised to occupy two spots in the club’s starting group.

While it seems reasonable to expect at least one empty slot in the rotation to be dedicated to the club’s current crop of youngsters, that still leaves two vacancies for the club to fill in its rotation for Opening Day 2024, whether that be by way of re-signing one of their outgoing free agents, dipping into the rest of a deep free agent pitching class, or by acquiring an arm controlled beyond this season via trade. Of course, the Dodgers are widely expected to have interest in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani when he hits the open market after the 2023 campaign comes to an end, but Ohtani has pitched exclusively as a member of a six-man rotation during his time in the majors, meaning his hypothetical addition wouldn’t change the club’s need for additional arms.

Dodgers Acquire Pat Valaika From Mariners

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The Dodgers have acquired infielder Pat Valaika from the Mariners, per Alex Freedman, broadcaster for the Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers. It’s unknown what the Mariners are getting in return but it’s possible it’s just a cash deal.

Valaika, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in April and has been in Triple-A this year. In 38 games at that level, he’s walked in 13.3% of his 143 plate appearances. However, he’s hit only four home runs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so his .240/.343/.405 slash line amounts to a wRC+ of just 77.

He hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2021 but has 374 games of major league experience with the Rockies and Orioles dating back to 2016. He hit .221/.264/.378 in those contests for a wRC+ of just 62, striking out in 27.2% of his trips to the plate and walking in 5.4% of them. He was able to provide defensive versatility though, having played all four infield positions, the outfield corners and even taking the mound for mop-up duty twice.

The Dodgers have been without infielder Gavin Lux all year after he tore the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. More recently, utility player Chris Taylor landed on the injured list due to a bone bruise in his knee. That has pushed outfielder Mookie Betts into spending more time in the middle infield of late. Glove-first shortstop Miguel Rojas is still in the lineup pretty regularly but he’s hitting just .236/.276/.291 for a wRC+ of 56, below his own standards. Meanwhile, Miguel Vargas is hitting just .197/.301/.369 for an 85 wRC+ and Yonny Hernández is at .222/.273/.333, 62 wRC+.

It’s not the most inspiring part of the Dodgers’ roster and they have decided to add some depth by bringing aboard a veteran in Valaika. He’ll head to Oklahoma City and try to work his way back to the big leagues. If he succeeds, he still has an option year and could be sent back down without being exposed to waivers.

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