Cafardo’s Latest: Corbin, Eovaldi, Pomeranz, O’s, Nats
The Yankees (previously reported), Dodgers, Giants and Braves are among the teams that are expected to “show a lot of interest” in left-hander Patrick Corbin once free agency starts, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The 29-year-old Corbin is coming off a career season at the perfect time, having logged a 3.15 ERA/2.47 FIP with 11.07 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 over 200 innings in 2018. As a result of that top-notch production, it’s likely Corbin will price himself out of Arizona and perhaps ink a nine-figure contract with someone.
More from Cafardo:
- Like Corbin, Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is slated to be one of the most sought-after starters available in free agency. While Eovaldi, 28, likely won’t do as well as Corbin on his next contract, many executives see fellow righty Alex Cobb as a comparable, per Cafardo. Cobb signed a four-year, $57MM contract with Baltimore in free agency last offseason, though Cafardo argues Eovaldi’s in position to rake in an even richer deal. Regarding Eovaldi, one exec tells Cafardo: “He’s shown, first of all, that he’s healthy. He’s shown he can pitch on a big stage. He’s shown that he’s grown as a pitcher where he not only relies on that 97-100-miles-per-hour fastball, but now he has a cutter that’s proven so effective for him and allowed him to pitch deep into games. And, he’s had two Tommy John surgeries, survived them and is flourishing.” Eovaldi underwent the second of those surgeries in 2016 and has indeed held his own this year upon returning. Between Tampa Bay and Boston, he pitched to a 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9 an 1.62 BB/9 in 111 regular-season innings. Eovaldi has continued his effectiveness in the postseason for the AL-winning Red Sox, with a 1.88 ERA and 10 strikeouts against two walks in 14 1/3 frames.
- Meanwhile, Red Sox pending free-agent southpaw Drew Pomeranz is due to hit the market on the heels of a disastrous season. After he posted a 6.08 ERA/5.43 FIP with 8.03 K/9 and 5.35 BB/9 in 74 regular-season innings, including 22 2/3 in relief, Boston has left Pomeranz off its playoff roster. Nevertheless, the Red Sox “could foresee a rebound season” in 2019, meaning it’s possible they’ll re-sign Pomeranz, per Cafardo. Pomeranz, who will turn 30 next month, isn’t far removed from an impressive 2017.
- Former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and Orioles ownership have had “consistent contact,” a major league source tells Cafardo. Colletti reportedly met with Orioles president John Angelos during the summer, when Dan Duquette was at the helm of the team’s front office. The Orioles have since parted with Duquette, putting them in the market for a new head of baseball operations. It’s unclear whether the Orioles are considering Colletti for that role, though.
- Nationals special assistant Dan Jennings has drawn interest from two teams, Cafardo reports, but it’s not clear which position he’d fill with either club or whether he’s even interested in leaving Washington. While Jennings is fresh off his third season in the Nats’ front office, he’s best known for serving in a pair of prominent roles with the Marlins. Not only was Jennings the Marlins’ GM from 2013-15, but he also worked as their interim manager for a 124-game stretch during his last season with the team.
Latest On Manny Machado
As he continues to play a key role on a big stage for the Dodgers, star infielder Manny Machado is of course also making last impressions in advance of his entry onto the free-agent market. His controversial run through the NLCS has certainly sparked quite a lot of attention. In particular, Machado was fined for dragging his foot and striking the leg of Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar and had some eyebrow-raising comments on his effort level. It is perhaps debatable whether or not those developments — and whatever else may emerge in the postseason — will impact his earning power. After all, Machado has a long record of productivity on the field despite his quirks.
Here are some notes on these interesting developments:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic got the comments from Machado that sparked so much controversy, and they really are something to behold. (Subscription link.) “Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base,” said Machado. “… That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.” He does perhaps deserve bonus points for his honesty, along with his acknowledgement that he “should … have given it a little more effort.” And Machado does say that it’s “just my mentality when I’m in the game” — presumably, the same ingrained approach that often produces moments of brilliance and generally excellent results. Still, that line of thinking will certainly be a tough sell for some fans.
- The outcome of Machado’s free agency will depend in no small part upon the extent to which he’s able to generate strong interest from multiple organizations. Media pressure is perhaps overstated as a causative factor, but at a minimum it can reflect general fan sentiment. It is worth noting, then, that Machado’s recent hijinks have sparked some questioning in some markets. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argues the Cardinals should “steer clear of the Machado suspense and nonsense.” Meanwhile, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia says that these public developments dovetail with other concerns from some in the Phillies organization, in addition to posing problems given the Philly fanbase’s predilection for lunchpail-toting athletes.
- Of course, the Phillies baseball ops department includes several key people who have prior experience with Machado in Baltimore — the only place he had played until the July swap that sent him to Los Angeles. Orioles coach Bobby Dickerson discussed his interesting relationship with Machado with Dan Connelly of The Athletic (subscription link). You’ll obviously want to read the whole piece for all his thoughts, but Dickerson interestingly echoes Machado’s own self-awareness of his suboptimal traits. The coach says that Machado is “a good guy” with “a good heart,” at core, even if “Swaggy Machado” is often the impression given to opponents and the general public.
- The Yankees have long been tabbed as a possible pursuer of Machado. To an extent, speculation waned with the rise of several talented infielders, but the recent Tommy John surgery performed on shortstop Didi Gregorius seemingly increases the merit of a fit. Indeed, per Jon Heyman of Fancred, there is real interest on behalf of the Yanks — though the precise extent of that may not quite be clear. As Heyman emphasizes, and has reported previously, there’s a sense also in some quarters that Machado would like to land in New York.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, Braun, Rockies, Padres
With the Dodgers and Brewers facing off in the NLCS, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy looks back to 2016 at the potential blockbuster deal between the two clubs that would’ve sent Ryan Braun to Los Angeles. The rebuilding Brew Crew were exploring ways to get Braun’s big contract off the books, and the Dodgers were a natural trade partner, given their large payroll and the fact that they were one of six teams that Braun (a Southern California native) didn’t have on his no-trade list. The most oft-cited version of the trade would’ve been Braun dealt to L.A. with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy, and two prospects going to the Brewers. According to multiple sources, McCalvy reports that the Dodgers walked away from talks within the last half-hour before the August 31st deadline.
Imagining Braun as a Dodger (and, not to be overlooked, Puig as a Brewer) makes for a very interesting alternate-reality scenario, especially given the domino effect that that trade would’ve created on the Brewers’ and Dodgers’ subsequent moves over the last two seasons. The deal will particularly loom large should either Braun or Puig end up being a deciding factor in the final three-plus games of the NLCS.
Some more from the NL West…
- The Rockies head into the offseason with a lot of position player questions, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes, perhaps most notably at second base and in the outfield, as DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, and Carlos Gonzalez are all free agents. The Rockies might want to move on to younger outfield options than Parra or Gonzalez, while “there’s no indication Colorado will attempt to re-sign” LeMahieu, which could open the door for prospects Garrett Hampson or Brendan Rodgers at the keystone. The team needs to upgrade its middling offense in general, with catcher being another position of need in that regard. Due to Jake McGee‘s struggles, Saunders also predicts the Rockies will have to add another left-handed reliever to the bullpen.
- With the Padres facing some tough decisions about 40-man roster placements in advance of December’s Rule 5 draft, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune breaks down the current players on the roster and the several minor league candidates to see who is likeliest to make the eventual 40-man slate. Quite a bit of this conjecture is up in the air, of course, as Acee notes that “there is almost no player the Padres wouldn’t at least consider in trade offerings,” so even the Major League roster could look quite different by the time the Rule 5 draft rolls around.
- If you feel like weighing in on a question about one of the NL West’s biggest stars, vote in this MLBTR Poll about whether or not the Diamondbacks will trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason.
NL West Notes: Rockies, Evans, Hernandez, Freese
The Rockies‘ season came to a disappointing end tonight, as the Brewers swept them out of the NLDS in three games. While Colorado can be proud of two straight years of postseason baseball, Nolan Arenado‘s future may be the biggest issue looming over the team as its offseason begins. There has been speculation that the Rox could consider trading the superstar third baseman rather than let him walk as a free agent once his contract is up after the 2019 season, assuming an extension can’t be reached. (Though the chances of an offseason trade seem doubtful, as surely the Rockies must be figuring on contending again in 2019.) For his part, Arenado told The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter links) and other reporters that offseason contract discussions are less important to his winter activities than his family’s Wiffle Ball competition, saying bluntly “I expect to be here next season. The future is bright here.”
Here’s more from around the NL West…
- Former Giants GM Bobby Evans tells the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he would like to be considered for the other open general manager jobs around baseball, though since he still has 15 months remaining on his contract in San Francisco, he is happy to take on whatever role assigned by the Giants’ next baseball operations head. Evans would also be understanding if the new GM would prefer if Evans left the organization. The team’s decision to remove Evans from his former post caught him somewhat off-guard: “I think you’re always surprised when something like this happens because we’ve all worked so closely together for so long and we had three World Series championships together.” Nevertheless, Evans said “the Giants were fantastic to me for 25 years,” and he defended his front office from the perception that it was somewhat behind in analytical implementation, noting that the team was already in the process of shifting from a traditional scouting-heavy approach to more analytics usage.
- Enrique Hernandez has become the definition of a super-utilityman for the Dodgers, with The Athletic’s Eno Sarris noting (subscription required) that Hernandez’s 118 wRC+ from the 2018 season is the highest of any player who has ever played at least eight different positions in a season. “If it wasn’t for my defense and the versatility, I’d probably have been stuck in the minors,” Hernandez said. “At first, it was what got me to the big leagues. After that, it’s what kept me here.” Hernandez hit .256/.336/.470 with 21 homers over 462 PA, while playing everywhere except catcher and making at least one start at every position except first base. His bat really began to heat up after adopting a slight step backwards during his swing in May, allowing Hernandez to produce against both left-handed and right-handed pitching, and making him a starter at second base for Los Angeles in all three games of the NLDS.
- After joining the Dodgers in a trade from the Pirates at the August 31 deadline, David Freese has made a big contribution both on the field and in the clubhouse, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes. Justin Turner praised Freese as a veteran influence to the Dodgers’ younger players, while manager Dave Roberts appreciated how Freese was open to a part-time role. Freese “didn’t try to force his way into a leadership role but really bought into what we were doing as far as sacrificing,” Roberts said. “That minimized the noise. He was walking the walk. He just has a way of commanding a room and players respect it.” As a part-time first baseman and mostly facing left-handed pitching, Freese hit a whopping .385/.489/.641 over 47 PA after coming to L.A.
International Notes & Signings: Mesas, Gaston, O’s, Marlins, Dodgers, Gutierrez
The latest on the international market:
- Cuban free agents Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston held a showcase in Miami for all 30 teams on Friday. The Orioles, with the most international spending room available (~$6.7MM), are reportedly the favorites to sign Victor Victor Mesa, an outfielder who’s the No. 1-ranked int’l prospect available. It seems the team that gets him will also land his brother, a fellow outfielder, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes the two “are viewed within the industry as a package deal.” The O’s are indeed interested in the tandem, reports Kubatko, who adds that they also “really like” Gaston – a right-handed pitcher. Financially speaking, the Orioles hold a significant edge over every other team in the league when it comes to signing any of these players, but Kubatko notes that the Marlins’ proximity to Cuba could stand in Baltimore’s way. The Marlins, who have the second-most money to spend ($4.3MM), have made it known that they are trying to use location to their advantage. Further, in their push to sign the Mesas and Gaston, the Marlins set up personalized lockers with uniforms for the players, Kubatko relays. Team CEO and future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter also happened to be on hand for their showcase.
- The Dodgers have signed Cuban righty Osvani Gutierrez to a $600K bonus, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The 17-year-old did not rank among the top international prospects available at any of BA, MLB.com or FanGraphs, but Badler writes that Gutierrez is “a solid strike-thrower for his age” who “shows feel for his secondary pitches” and can bring 93 mph heat. The Dodgers entered this year’s international signing period with the standard bonus pool of $4,983,500. As of mid-September, they were down to $2.78MM – still one of the highest sums left.
Heyman’s Latest: Giants, Mets, DeRosa, Yost, Lux
Here are some of the highlights from the weekly roundup of notes from Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman…
- Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, and former Padres and D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes are under consideration from the Mets and Giants for their general manager positions. Reports from last summer indicated that Byrnes was likely to stay in his current role as the Dodgers’ VP of baseball ops, though it isn’t known if his stance has changed.
- MLB Network analyst Mark DeRosa “has been linked” to the Rangers‘ managerial job, and Heyman also notes that DeRosa could be a candidate of interest for the Blue Jays as they look for a new dugout boss. DeRosa has worked as a broadcaster since retiring after the 2013 season, though he has often been potential as a possible future manager, even interviewing with the Marlins in 2015 and the Mets last winter for dugout vacancies. DeRosa played for both the Rangers and Jays over the course of his 16-year big league career, as well as a brief stint with the Indians (when Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins were in Cleveland’s organization).
- “The strong belief is that” 2019 is Ned Yost’s last year as manager of the Royals. Yost hinted at such a timeline near the end of the 2017 campaign, and his recently-announced contract extension only covered the 2019 season.
- Infield prospect Gavin Lux was the Orioles‘ “main target” in the Manny Machado trade talks with the Dodgers. Los Angeles managed to swing the deal without moving Lux, the 20th overall pick of the 2016 draft. Lux broke out in his third pro season, hitting .324/.399/.514 over a combined 524 PA at the high-A and Double-A levels. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez recently cited Lux as one of his top minor league performers of 2018, and MLB.com ranked Lux 82nd on its season-ending list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
NL Notes: Dodgers, Roberts, Mets, Marlins, Dietrich, Nats, Harper
The Dodgers just won their third National League West title in as many years under Dave Roberts, though the manager’s future beyond this season still isn’t known yet. The deal Roberts signed when he took the helm in November 2015 includes an option for next season, which the club hasn’t exercised. The Dodgers could instead ink Roberts to a new pact if they’re interested in keeping him for the long haul, and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that the two sides have indeed begun contract talks. There’s mutual respect between Roberts and Dodgers management, Shaikin relays, and the 46-year-old has the confidence of chairman Mark Walter. Asked if the Dodgers would give Roberts long-term security, Walter said, “I don’t see any reason why not.” The results under Roberts are hard to argue with – in addition to their three division titles on his watch, the Dodgers have won an NL pennant (in 2017) and combined for a 287-200 regular-season record.
Now the latest from the NL East…
- There are anywhere from 10 to 12 “serious candidates” for the Mets’ general manager opening, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, adding that Kim Ng may be among the names. If the Mets hire Ng, Major League Baseball’s senior vice president for baseball operations, she’d become the first woman to hold a GM job in professional sports. Ng comes with plenty of front office experience and has drawn GM interest in the past, most recently from the Diamondbacks in 2016.
- It “appears highly questionable” the Marlins will tender a contract to Derek Dietrich in the offseason, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Seeing Dietrich hit free agency early would be a surprise, considering he’s fresh off his third straight solid offensive season, capable of playing multiple positions and arbitration eligible for another two years (he’s set to earn a raise over his current salary of $2.9MM in 2019). The 29-year-old hit .265/.330/.421 (109 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 551 plate appearances this season, all while racking up significant time in left field and at first base. Dietrich has also garnered a fair amount of experience at second and third base since he debuted in 2013.
- Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com provides a primer on Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper‘s upcoming trip to free agency, listing several teams that could pursue the soon-to-be 26-year-old if he leaves the Nats. However, there’s real affection between the Nationals and Harper, notes Zuckerman, which could lead to a re-signing. Zuckerman wonders if Washington would be better off using the money it would allocate to Harper on multiple other areas of the roster, though, pointing out that the club would likely boast a quality outfield even without the six-time All-Star. Should Harper depart, the Nats wouldn’t receive much in the way of compensation, as Zuckerman writes. Assuming it stayed under the $197MM competitive-balance tax this year, Washington would get a compensatory pick before the third round of the 2019 draft. Otherwise, the team would land a selection after the fourth round.
Latest On Federal Investigation Into Latin American Signings
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported last week that a grand jury had been convened as part of a federal investigation into Latin American amateur signings by Major League Baseball clubs. Now, Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated writes that the Department of Justice has undertaken “a sweeping probe into possible corruption tied to the recruitment of international players, centered on potential violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.” Multiple alleged victims of smuggling and human trafficking violations have either provided evidence to law enforcement or testified before a federal grand jury, according to Wertheim.
The DOJ’s investigation “could get interesting,” a top baseball official told SI, which “obtained a thick dossier of documentation that was provided to the FBI at the beginning of the probe,” Wertheim writes. That dossier features “videotapes, photographs, confidential legal briefs, receipts, copies of player visas and passport documents, internal club emails and private communications by franchise executives in 2015 and 2016,” Wertheim adds.
Per Passan’s report, the Dodgers have come under scrutiny for their signing of infielder Hector Olivera out of Cuba for six years and $62.5MM in 2015. While Olivera’s name isn’t mentioned in SI’s report, it notes that the Dodgers “figure most prominently in the dossier” it obtained. The Dodgers, according to SI, “went so far as to develop a database that measured the perceived “level of egregious behavior” displayed by 15 of their own employees in Latin America.” The Dodgers used a 1-5 scale to measure whether an employee was an “innocent bystander” or a “criminal,” per Wertheim, who adds that five of their 15 employees received a criminal rating. One of those employees, whose focus was on the Caribbean and Venezuela, was “unbelievably corrupt,” SI relays.
Wertheim’s must-read piece sheds more light on potentially corrupt behavior from the Dodgers, though neither president Andrew Friedman nor ex-director of player development Gabe Kapler (now the Phillies’ manager) returned messages to SI seeking comment. Dodgers outside counsel David Schindler told SI he has “no knowledge” of a DOJ investigation, meanwhile. For its part, “Major League Baseball has not been contacted by federal authorities regarding an investigation,” MLB spokesman Pat Courtney informed the magazine. However, it’s “likely” that will change, according to Wertheim.
NL Notes: Kershaw, Nats, Harper, Reds, Girardi
The Dodgers clinched a playoff berth with a win over the Giants on Saturday, but Los Angeles still isn’t a lock to participate in a postseason series. Entering play on Sunday, the Dodgers and Rockies were tied atop the NL West. In the event Colorado wins the division, which may come down to a one-game tiebreaker between the teams on Monday, LA would have to get through the wild-card one-off on Tuesday in order to reach the NLDS. Ace Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t start that do-or-die contest, given that he just tossed five innings Saturday. So, because Kershaw could opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM left on his contract after the season, it’s possible Saturday’s start will go down as his last with the Dodgers. Kershaw was asked about his opt-out Saturday, but as you’d expect, his focus is on the playoffs. “I mean – I can’t really give an answer because I don’t know what’s ahead,” he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “I know we’ve got the playoffs ahead. It’s a good distraction. If we weren’t making the playoffs, I probably would have put a lot more thought into where we’re going and what I’m doing personally. But right now, I can’t do it. There’s not enough room up there (in his mind) for both.”
More on a couple other NL clubs..
- This season will end up as a major disappointment for the Nationals, who entered as expected contenders but will miss the playoffs under first-year manager Dave Martinez. Nevertheless, Martinez and his staff are safe going into the offseason, general manager Mike Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters on Sunday. It’s anyone’s guess whether Martinez will continue to manage superstar outfielder Bryce Harper, a pending free agent, in 2019. Unsurprisingly, though, Rizzo wants Harper to remain in the fold. “Of course he’s in our plans,” Rizzo said of Harper (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).
- It’s a near certainty the Reds will have Joe Girardi on their wish list as they search for a full-time manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (video link). If Cincinnati does pursue Girardi, the former Marlins and Yankees skipper informed Rosenthal he would consider taking the job. “I want to manage again. I’m interested in everything,” said Girardi, whom the Yankees parted with last fall after a long and successful run in New York. On paper, the rebuilding Reds and Girardi may not look like a match, though it’s worth noting they expect to spend more in 2019 and could attempt to start pushing toward contention.
- The Reds’ 2019 manager will have to decide how to deploy righty Michael Lorenzen, a reliever who could vie for a starting role next season. Lorenzen started 21 times as a rookie in 2015, but he moved to a full-time relief job the next season. He has since made three starts, all of which came this season, and ended his year on Saturday with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates. The 26-year-old then said (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that he wants to return to starting on a full-time basis. “It’s not a secret that it’s something I want to do,” said Lorenzen, who added he’ll “work extremely hard” in the offseason to bolster his chances. Lorenzen was a valuable member of the Reds’ staff in 2018, as he posted a 3.11 ERA/4.18 FIP over 81 innings. He also did his best offensively to serve as the NL’s answer to Shohei Ohtani, hitting an excellent .286/.333/.750 with four home runs in 31 trips.
Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West
With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.
We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history. He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance. Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers. Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
- Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark. The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year. Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed. The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke‘s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward. A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs. But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews. Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats. With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
- Brandon Belt, Giants: No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ‘clutch.’ Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position. His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
- Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame. With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.