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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Boras, Shapiro

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The Blue Jays have remade their pitching staff this winter with the additions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi. Along with the return on Matt Shoemaker and the development of Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki and Nate Pearson, the Blue Jays have plenty of options for their 2020 rotation. It doesn’t come together, however, without Ryu at the top. With that in mind, let’s check in on some of the factors that brought the Korean southpaw to Toronto…

  • To remember the last time one of Scott Boras’ clients signed with the Blue Jays, he had to go all the way back to the mid-eighties. Bill Caudill signed a two-year, $2.37MM deal to play the 1985 and 1986 seasons in Toronto. Caudill is now one of a couple ex-clients to work for Boras. But until Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM deal, the Blue Jays were one of Boras’ favorite teams to pick on, per the Athletic’s John Lott. It wasn’t personal, of course, Boras simply believes Toronto’s market should make them a top-10 team capable of signing top free agents while retaining their own homegrown stars – a trend he’s starting to see with the current Toronto regime. And of course, it behooves Boras to push potential large market teams to open their wallets.
  • As for Ryu’s choice to join the Blue Jays, the decision largely came down to where he wanted to raise his young family. That said, Toronto’s early and persistent interest also helped bring Ryu north of the border, per the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. Long-term security wasn’t necessarily a driving factor for Ryu, though securing a four-year deal for the 32-year-old certainly counts as a win for Boras. Team President Mark Shapiro spoke on Ryu’s importance to the community, saying: “It was more recognizing what an incredibly international city Toronto is, very aware of the Korean population here, both in students and business and what a tightknit community it is. And so feeling like it would be a great place for Ryu and his family to be and feeling like it would be a great synergy with Toronto and Canada, in general. That was a consideration — not a driving factor, but certainly something that we thought would make for a great alignment in the relationship moving forward.”

Quick Hits: Jays, Gibson, Padres, Quiroz

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After you get your turkey in the oven, feel free to check in on a few notes from around baseball.

  • The Blue Jays made an offer to right-hander Kyle Gibson before he signed with the Rangers, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. It’s unclear exactly how much Toronto was willing to put on the table, but it was presumably less than the $30MM over three years Gibson got to head to Texas. With Gibson off the market, the Jays now have to look elsewhere to fill out an uncertain rotation mix. That figures to include at least one free agent on a short-term deal, Davidi notes, and Toronto has to this point cast a wide net in its quest for starters. Not getting Gibson could also spur the Jays to work out an agreement with Matt Shoemaker, Davidi adds. The team has been discussing a deal with the arbitration-eligible righty in advance of Monday’s non-tender deadline.
  • The Padres brought in a noteworthy outfielder and reliever in separate moves yesterday. Even after acquiring Trent Grisham and Drew Pomeranz (as well as starter Zach Davies), the Friars could be on the hunt for additional outfield and bullpen depth, per Peter Gammons of the Athletic (via Twitter). Second base, too, stands as a target area, which makes sense considering the Padres parted with Luis Urías to acquire Grisham and Davies. Whatever will be addressed first, there’s “more to come” in San Diego, one Padres executive tells Gammons.
  • While the Padres figure to look externally for second basemen, they do have some internal options who remain in the mix. Ian Kinsler is still on hand, although he’s coming off a disappointing season. One under-the-radar name to monitor is Esteban Quiroz, as Jon Paul Morosi of MLB Network adds (via Twitter) that his presence in the organization played some role in the team’s comfort parting with Urías. Soon to turn 28, Quiroz is atypically old for a prospect. However, he had a long track record of above-average production in the Mexican League before entering the affiliated ranks in 2018 with the Red Sox. The Padres acquired Quiroz in a minor trade just over a year ago, and he continued to show well in the high minors. In 366 plate appearances with AAA El Paso last season, Quiroz slashed .271/.384/.539. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote in May that Quiroz “has a chance” to be an everyday-caliber second baseman.

Latest On Blue Jays, Matt Shoemaker

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Blue Jays right-hander Matt Shoemaker seems open to signing a multiyear deal with the club, but the two sides haven’t made progress in contract talks, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. There’s a hesitance on the team’s part to give Shoemaker two guaranteed years or even one with a vesting option including performance-based escalators, Nicholson-Smith reports.

While Toronto’s reluctant to commit to Shoemaker, that doesn’t necessarily mean his time with the team is up. The Blue Jays could still welcome back Shoemaker in 2020, his last arbitration-eligible season, on what MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects would be a reasonable $3.5MM salary (the same amount he collected this season). The Jays have preferred to cut that down to $3MM with a club option for 2021, but Shoemaker hasn’t bit, Nicholson-Smith relays. Should no compromise come together by the Dec. 2 non-tender deadline, the team could cut ties with Shoemaker.

A former Angel, with whom he endured multiple injury-limited seasons, Shoemaker joined the Jays in free agency last winter and then got off to an encouraging start. He took the ball five times and amassed 28 2/3 innings of 1.57 ERA/3.95 FIP pitching with 7.53 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate before an injury cut him down yet again. Shoemaker tore his left ACL in late April and didn’t pitch for the rest of the season, though he does seem to be progressing well in his recovery.

Whether the Jays bring back Shoemaker could inform their offseason plans to some degree. Even though the club doesn’t look as if it’ll contend for a playoff spot in 2020, it nonetheless seems likely to push for rotation help in the next few months. The Jays already acquired one starter – former Brewer Chase Anderson – and it’s doubtful he’ll be the last one they trade for or sign prior to next year.

Atkins: Blue Jays Will Prioritize Pitching, Increase Offseason Spending

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The Blue Jays and their fans were surely excited to see a potential wave of young talent reach the Majors, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all debuting in 2019, but the team’s pitching proved to be a disaster. Toronto starters posted a combined 5.25 ERA, and that number includes Marcus Stroman’s pre-trade contributions. Cut out his 124 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, and non-Stroman Blue Jays starters recorded a 5.74 ERA.

As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”

Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki’s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.

The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.

Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.

To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.

Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.

A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.

It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.

Matt Shoemaker Interested In Re-Signing With Blue Jays

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Over his first 5 starts this season–his first in a Toronto uniform–righty Matt Shoemaker was one of the best pitchers in the AL East. Though likely benefitting from a .183 BABIP, Shoemaker’s 1.57 ERA across those first 28.2 innings was likely even more than GM Ross Atkins bargained for when the club signed the embattled pitcher to a one-year, incentive-laden $3.5MM contract back in December.

Of course, those five starts were only prelude to yet another unfortunate Shoemaker injury, as the veteran suffered an ACL tear on Apr. 20 that ended his season prematurely. Though 2019 didn’t turn into the fairytale campaign he might have hoped, Shoemaker now tells TSN’s Scott Mitchell that both the pitcher and the Toronto front office seem to have some interest in giving it another go in 2020 (link). “We’ve had some small discussion showing my interest,” Shoemaker told Mitchell, “To be completely honest with you, I’d like to be here and I’d like to be here long term.”

In a subsequent tweet, which is speculation of his own, Mitchell adds that Toronto may be wise to simply offer the 32-year-old Shoemaker another one-year deal in the area of $3.5MM–although he figures that the attachment of a club option for 2021 may be prudent for the Jays this time around (Twitter link). At first glance, that seems like relatively sound reasoning from the Canadian reporter.

After all, it was mostly a litany of previous injuries that suppressed Shoemaker’s value heading into 2018-2019 free agency. In 2016, the righty was hit by a comebacker in the head–an incident which ultimately led to brain surgery. After battling back from that ordeal, Shoemaker was sidetracked by issues with his throwing arm in 2017 and 2018. All told, the righty hasn’t surpassed the 100-inning threshold since 2016–but there’s no arguing with the Michigan native’s track record when he has indeed been healthy enough to toe the rubber.

Through 98 career starts and 573.2 innings, Shoemaker owns 3.81 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 8.06 K/9, and 2.17 BB/9 numbers–more-than-respectable marks for a man who went undrafted in 2008 out of Eastern Michigan University. If Atkins and his cadre are confident enough in Shoemaker’s April showing to believe that his arm issues are truly behind him, it may indeed make sense to run it back one more time in 2020–assuming that rehab on his injured knee continues to progress well.

 

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Tigers, Gardenhire, Yanks, C. Frazier

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Oft-injured Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis is unlikely to remain with the team next season, per Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. Travis hasn’t played at all this season (and nor will he) as a result of left knee issues, and his absence has opened the door for rookie Cavan Biggio to take over the keystone. While Travis could stay with the Jays next year as a backup infielder (or they could simply option him to Triple-A Buffalo), Chisholm suggests he’s not a fit to stick around because the team wants a reserve who’s capable of playing shortstop. As of now, Travis – who’s on a $1.93MM salary – has two more years of arbitration control remaining.

  • Unlike Travis, odds are “good” that right-hander Matt Shoemaker will be back with the Blue Jays next season, Chisholm reports. It’s possible, though, that Toronto will first non-tender Shoemaker and then attempt to re-up him at a lower cost. Otherwise, the 32-year-old would earn a raise over his current $3.5MM salary in his fourth and final trip through arbitration. The Jays signed Shoemaker in free agency last winter, and the former Angel initially justified the investment with 28 2/3 innings of 1.57 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching with 7.53 K/9 against 2.83 BB/9. Shoemaker’s potential bounce-back year came to an end April 21 when he suffered a torn left ACL.
  • Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire has helped oversee their extensive rebuilding effort since last year, and it’s likely he’ll helm the club’s dugout again next season. The soon-to-be 62-year-old Gardenhire’s “in little to no jeopardy” of not returning in 2020 for the final season of his contract, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Gardenhire, for his part, seems uninterested in going anywhere else. “That’s to be determined for (general manager) Al Avila, with where they want to go and what they want to do, but I enjoy this and I love this city,” Gardenhire said of his future. The Tigers have stumbled to a miserable 103-158 record under Gardenhire, but it would be unfair to judge him for that. Anyone would’ve been hard-pressed to guide last year’s roster or this season’s team to respectable marks.
  • The Yankees will “probably” recall outfielder Clint Frazier from Triple-A Scranton when rosters expand Sunday, manager Aaron Boone said (via George A. King III of the New York Post). The 24-year-old Frazier’s weeks-long stay in the minors has gotten plenty of coverage, in part because he was the subject of numerous trade rumors leading up to the July 31 deadline. However, the Yankees kept the former top prospect, who posted a quality batting line of .283/.330/.513 with 11 home runs in 209 plate appearances before they sent him down in mid-June to make room for a just-acquired Edwin Encarnacion. The Yankees’ wealth of outfield talent, Frazier’s well-documented defensive issues and his remaining minors options have all conspired to strand him in Scranton, for which he has hit a meek .243/.300/.426 with seven HRs over 250 PA.

Blue Jays Select Edwin Jackson

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The Blue Jays have selected the contract of righty Edwin Jackson, per a club announcement. Lefty Thomas Pannone was optioned out to create active roster space, with righty Matt Shoemaker moved to the 60-day injured list for a 40-man spot.

Jackson’s addition to the MLB roster was a foregone conclusion when he was acquired recently from the A’s. The veteran hurler had joined the Oakland organization on a minors pact that included an opt-out chance later this month. He was shipped to Toronto to help fill a need for innings on the Jays’ roster and will take the ball this evening.

By making it official, the Blue Jays have now become the 14th MLB team Jackson has appeared with in 16 seasons in the majors. He’s closing in on two thousand career innings with a cumulative 4.60 ERA.

Last year, the 35-year-old pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 92 frames for the A’s, though metrics suggested those results were based in no small part upon some batted ball fortune. Jackson ran up 19 strikeouts but also surrendered four home runs in his 14 2/3 minor-league frames to open the present campaign.

Once Jackson takes hill today, he’ll officially surpass righty Octavio Dotel for the all-time lead in number of Major League teams pitched for. The most well-traveled veteran in the game’s history has appeared for the Rays, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Braves, Athletics, Padres, Orioles, Marlins and Tigers prior to the 2019 season. And while he’ll make his Toronto debut this afternoon, Jackson has technically even been a Blue Jay in the past; he was traded from the White Sox to the Jays on July 27 but immediately flipped to the Cardinals just hours later.

Matt Shoemaker Has Torn ACL, Will Miss Remainder Of Season

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Matt Shoemaker has a torn left ACL that will keep him out of action for the rest of the 2019 season, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The Blue Jays right-hander was placed on the 10-day IL earlier today after suffering the injury during Saturday’s game. What was initially thought to be a knee sprain is evidently much worse than expected, and Shoemaker finds himself on the shelf in what seems to be the worst-case scenario.

The diagnosis comes as the latest in a frustrating set of seasons for Shoemaker, who managed just 21 starts in his final two seasons with the Angels. After he was unable to replicate the success that he enjoyed in 2014, his first full Major League season, the 32-year-old signed on with the Blue Jays last winter on a one-year deal, hoping that a change of scenery would coincide with a return to strength and a comeback season.

The news is that much more devastating when considered in context with Shoemaker’s extensive injury history and his early-season success with his new club. Through his first five starts of the young season, Shoemaker impressed his new organization and looked in position to make good on that return to form. His 1.57 ERA was accompanied by impressive peripheral numbers, with his 0.9 HR/9 on par with his best seasons. Unfortunately, though, 2019 will go down as another lost season for the veteran righty.

Of course, the injury is equally disappointing for the Blue Jays, who looked to Shoemaker to provide stability in a rotation that was one of the weakest in the American League last season. Entering the season, there were plenty of questions in the rotation, with Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez both enduring disappointing seasons in 2018 and free-agent signee Clay Buchholz a relative unknown. The depth beyond that group of veterans is comprised of unproven young pitchers, one of whom will now have to step into the rotation in Shoemaker’s absence. Thomas Pannone and Sam Gaviglio, who started 24 games for Toronto in 2018, appear most likely to replace Shoemaker.

Though his contract will expire at season’s end, Shoemaker is still eligible for arbitration, so the Blue Jays will have priority to keep the hurler around for next season if both parties are interested, though his contractual status is surely the last thing on Shoemaker’s mind following his injury.

Blue Jays Place Matt Shoemaker On 10-Day IL

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The Blue Jays have placed righty Matt Shoemaker on the 10-day injured list due to a left knee sprain, as per a club announcement (via Twitter).  Infielder Richard Urena has been recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move.

Shoemaker suffered the injury on Saturday, while participating in a rundown to record the last out of the third inning of Toronto’s 10-1 win over the A’s.  The right-hander was replaced by Sam Gaviglio to begin the next inning.  Shoemaker is scheduled to undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his injury, and the potential timeframe for his return.  A lengthy IL stint could scuttle Shoemaker’s value as a potential deadline trade chip for the rebuilding Blue Jays, given his strong early-season results.

After tossing only 108 2/3 total innings in 2017-18 for the Angels due to multiple forearm problems, Shoemaker had a 1.57 ERA, 7.53 K/9, 51.4% grounder rate, and 2.67 K/BB rate over his first 28 2/3 innings in a Blue Jays uniform.  There is certainly some good fortune baked into those results, as Shoemaker’s .335 xwOBA far outweighs his .243 wOBA and he has also received some good batted-ball (.183 BABIP) and strand rate (87.2%) luck.  That said, Shoemaker also has a career-best 13.4% swinging strike rate.

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