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Mitch Keller

Pirates Remain Open To Dealing From Rotation For Offense

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The Pirates traded back-end starter Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox tonight, getting rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia back as part of a five-player deal.  Garcia immediately becomes the favorite to start the season in left field, but the Bucs undoubtedly have more lineup acquisitions on the way.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Pirates remain open to offers on their starters — obviously excepting Paul Skenes, whom general manager Ben Cherington has already declared will not be moved. That wouldn’t be for prospects, as the goal would be to swap pitching for offense. Cherington and his front office have made a few trades of that type over the past year and a half. In addition to the Oviedo/Garcia deal, they swapped Quinn Priester for Nick Yorke at the 2024 deadline and flipped Luis Ortiz and a pair of pitching prospects for Spencer Horwitz last winter. The Horwitz deal looks the far better of the previous two trades.

It seems safe to assume the Pirates aren’t trading Jared Jones, a potential top-of-the-rotation arm who is midway through rehabbing elbow surgery. Bubba Chandler is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. It’d be almost as surprising to see him moved. Even with Oviedo headed to Boston, the Bucs have a few intriguing possibilities.

Mitch Keller is the most straightforward trade candidate. He has been in trade rumors for years, though that was generally about Pittsburgh being in a rebuild. It’s a different situation now that the goal is to build a playoff-caliber lineup for next season. Keller is a solid mid-rotation starter whose production has tailed off in the second half of three consecutive years. He has been a durable source of innings with a low-4.00s ERA overall. He attacks the strike zone and has solid velocity but doesn’t miss many bats. At age 30, it’s unlikely he’ll jump from a #3/4 starter to become an ace.

Keller is signed for three seasons. He’ll make $16.5MM next season, following by respective $18MM and $20MM salaries. He’s the highest-paid player on the team, but that doesn’t appear to be as big an issue this offseason as it might normally be. The Pirates are reportedly open to being more aggressive in adding mid-tier free agent hitters. They’d obviously have more payroll space if they move Keller, but the contract isn’t forcing him out the door.

There should be some surplus value. Keller would probably top three years and $54.5MM if he were a free agent. It’s not a huge bargain, though, as his open market value might be in the $65-75MM range. The Pirates would be more likely to get an established hitter with multiple years of control if they were willing to trade one of their younger arms. Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows would be particularly valuable.

Ashcraft thrived in a multi-inning relief role as a rookie. The 26-year-old righty struck out 24.3% of batters faced while pitching to a 2.71 ERA across 69 2/3 innings. He sat around 97 MPH with his fastballs while throwing a pair of power breaking pitches. He’s likely to get a rotation spot next season and has six years of club control.

Burrows, also 26, has yet to reach one full year of service either. He sits around 95 MPH with his fastball and has a four-pitch mix. Burrows punched out 24.1% of opponents while working to a 3.94 earned run average through 96 frames. He held a rotation spot from late May through the end of the season.

Pittsburgh would get no shortage of interest in Burrows and Ashcraft. The Diamondbacks (Jordan Lawlar), Angels (Christian Moore), Giants (Bryce Eldridge) and Orioles (Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo) are all in the market for starting pitching and have highly-touted hitting prospects who have yet to establish themselves in MLB.

The pitching pipeline extends even further. Hunter Barco, Antwone Kelly, Wilber Dotel and Thomas Harrington are all on the 40-man roster. The first three all rank among the organization’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America. Harrington might be more of a depth arm, but all four pitchers should have fans in other clubs’ scouting departments. The Pirates added another high-octane arm to the system last summer, drafting high school righty Seth Hernandez sixth overall. He’s years away and comes with the standard risks for any teenage pitcher but offers another potential impact starter in the future.

Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

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This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi’s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

Pirates Likely To Keep Mitch Keller Beyond Trade Deadline

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Despite weeks of rumors, it looks as though the Pirates won’t be trading Mitch Keller before tomorrow’s trade deadline, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  It would take “a dramatic shift” in the team’s thinking for Keller to be moved at this point.

Several contenders (including the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, and Cubs) were publicly linked to Keller in recent days, yet it appears as though none of these suitors or others were able to meet what was known to be a very high asking price for the right-hander’s services.  One rival executive told Rosenthal that it didn’t seem like the Pirates were willing to explore a Keller deal too deeply, and thus ceased talks.

This stance from the Bucs front office tracks with the most recent reporting on Keller, as Rosenthal and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette each wrote within the last few days that the Pirates were becoming increasingly disinclined to trade the starter.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington told Hiles and other reporters last weekend that the team valued Keller’s “leadership” and “proven performance.”

“If we’re going to be better in 2026, we need more of that, not less.  We would only contemplate giving up something that’s seemingly more proven if we really believe that they give us a better chance to be better by next year,” Cherington said.

Now in his seventh MLB season, Keller has a 3.69 ERA and 6.2% walk rate over 127 innings and 22 starts for Pittsburgh.  His 18.8% strikeout rate is his lowest over a full season and he has correspondingly low chase and whiff rates, plus Keller’s fastball averages a modest 94mph.  His heater does have plenty of spin on it, however, and Keller’s combination of good control, durability, and non-quantitative value as a veteran leader in a young clubhouse makes him a logical player to keep as the Bucs try to break out of their lengthy rebuilding phase.

The club invested in Keller as a face of its next phase of contention by signing him to a multi-year extension prior to the 2024 season.  Keller still has $54.5MM owed to him from 2026-28, as well as the rest of his $15MM salary for the remainder of the 2025 campaign.  This is a very pricey commitment by the Pirates’ standards, and since the team is staring at another losing season, there was some thought that the Bucs could trim salary by moving Keller elsewhere.  The team did move one significant contract off the books when Ke’Bryan Hayes was dealt to the Reds earlier today, which indirectly makes Keller more affordable with more room now in the Pirates’ limited budget.

Hiles heard from a source that the Pirates could re-engage in Keller’s trade market this winter, which could give the team more time and flexibility in finding an acceptable match.  Without the deadline crunch, the Bucs could also lower their asking price to a more realistic level.  Rosenthal suggested that one reason the Keller talks have stalled is because some clubs “perceive him as nothing more than a mid-rotation starter,” and are therefore perhaps balking at giving up much in the way of significant position-player talent in return, or at taking on Keller’s salary.

Pittsburgh could still explore moving one of its younger and more controllable non-Paul Skenes arms before tomorrow, in order to obtain a proven veteran hitter or a young bat of a comparable prospect value.  With Keller now apparently off the board, the Pirates’ decision will raise the asking price for other teams with starters on offer around the league.

Red Sox Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Red Sox are among a number of teams with interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hiles mentions the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs as being among the other teams that have reached out to the Pirates about Keller, though each of those clubs has previously been connected to the righty this summer.

It should be of little surprise that Boston would have interest in Keller’s services. The 2023 All-Star is in the midst of a career season with the Pirates. He’s posted a 3.69 ERA in 22 starts with a 3.44 FIP. Keller’s strikeout rate (18.8%) is down substantially from previous seasons, which could be a cause for concern, but his 6.6% barrel rate is the lowest of his career and he’s limited his walks to a tidy 6.2%, also a career low. More advanced metrics are skeptical of Keller’s ability to continue producing at this rate with such a low strikeout rate, however; the right-hander’s 4.21 SIERA is the 18th-weakest figure among the league’s 59 qualified starters this year. That suggests he may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the playoff-caliber #2 his surface-level numbers this year might otherwise make him out to be.

Despite those concerns, Keller remains an attractive trade target. He’s been fairly durable in recent years, with the league’s 12th-highest innings total since 2022, and at just 29 years old he’ll remain in his prime for a few more seasons. With three more years of team control after this one after he signed an extension with the Pirates last year, Keller would be a fixture of an acquiring club’s rotation for years to come. That should be especially attractive to the Red Sox, who could lose both Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler to free agency this winter, though Giolito’s deal has a 2026 option. Either way, they will need reliable arms to fill out the remainder of their rotation alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. He should be attractive to a number of other teams as well; in addition to the clubs mentioned above, Keller has also been connected to the Blue Jays.

Despite that solid base of teams Keller is drawing interest from, however, Hiles emphasizes that there’s no guarantee he’ll actually be traded this summer. Hiles reports that the Pirates are “comfortable” holding onto Keller if their “steep” asking price isn’t met, and Hiles adds that Pittsburgh could revisit dealing Keller in the offseason, when it could be easier to pry a hitter already in the majors away from interested clubs. That seems likely to be true of the Red Sox, at least. Boston outfielder Jarren Duran has been the frequent subject of trade speculation in recent weeks due to the club’s logjam of talent in the outfield, but the latest signals point to the club holding onto him this summer and re-evaluating over the winter.

Duran, an above-average everyday player controlled through the end of the 2028 season, is the exact sort of player the Pirates are surely dreaming of acquiring. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Pirates are holding out for a controllable hitter of that caliber and ultimately decide to keep Keller in the fold in order to try again this winter if that asking price isn’t met. Of course, that strategy would run the risk of interested clubs pivoting elsewhere once free agency opens up additional options. With roughly $56MM left on his deal after the 2025 season, Keller is more expensive financially than the typical trade target. That could leave his market to be more impacted by free agency than the average trade piece, at least during the offseason. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff are among the many intriguing starting pitchers who figure to be available this winter, and some teams would likely prefer to pay for one of those arms rather than surrendering both budget space and talent to land Keller in the winter.

Pirates Not Committed To Trading Mitch Keller

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Mitch Keller is one of the top names on the pitching market. The Pirates have generally been expected to deal him to clear payroll space and bring back controllable hitting talent. While that’s seemingly the likeliest outcome, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Pirates remain unsure of whether to trade Keller with six days before the deadline.

Keller is essentially in the first season of a four-year contract. He signed an extension in February 2024, though that left his already agreed upon salary for last year unchanged. Keller is playing on a $15MM salary this year. That’ll climb to $16.5MM, $18MM, and $20MM for the next three seasons. It takes him through his age-32 campaign.

That makes Keller the highest-paid player on the roster. It’s nevertheless quite a bit less than he’d command if he were on the open market. There’s surplus value that’d allow the Pirates to land a significant return. Keller is amidst the best season of his career. He owns a personal-low 3.53 earned run average in 125 innings. He’s only striking out 18.7% of batters faced, but he is walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters. Keller has taken a step forward in handling left-handed hitters after struggling in that regard earlier in his career.

It’s a rock-solid #3 starter profile. Keller has been exceptionally durable and has a six-pitch arsenal that’s headlined by a 94 MPH fastball. The Bucs have reportedly gotten calls from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets — presumably among others that haven’t been reported. Noah Hiles of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has suggested the Cubs view Keller as something of a fallback target. The Mets are involved in the rotation market but presently more focused on the bullpen. Toronto and the Yankees still appear strongly involved in the rotation market. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox and Tigers could also pursue controllable starting pitching.

The Pirates are weighing that against the possibility of keeping Keller behind Paul Skenes in the rotation. Top prospect Bubba Chandler should be up before the end of the season. Jared Jones could return midway through the ’26 campaign. That’d be a potentially elite top four if they were all healthy. Pitcher injuries are always a concern, though, and the Pirates have run out unplayable lineups year after year. They’re unlikely to spend their way out of that problem. Even with star shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin coming through the pipeline, there’s not enough hitting talent in the organization.

Trading Keller is probably their best path to acquiring young offensive upside. Pittsburgh should also get a notable return for closer David Bednar, who is under arbitration control for another season after this one. Setup man Dennis Santana has built a decent amount of value as well. The Bucs aren’t expected to move Oneil Cruz unless they’re completely blown away by an offer. None of their impending free agents are going to bring much back.

General manager Ben Cherington was hired over the 2019-20 offseason. The Pirates haven’t come especially close to making the playoffs in that time. They already replaced skipper Derek Shelton earlier in the season. It stands to reason Cherington is motivated to demonstrate a path to the playoffs for the 2026 club. Trading Keller for low minors prospects wouldn’t do much to that end, so it’d make sense for them to demand high minors and/or young MLB talent.

Blue Jays Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Blue Jays are among the teams to contact the Pirates about right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re the latest in a growing number of clubs reported to have interest in the 29-year-old righty, who’s also drawn looks from the Yankees, Mets and Cubs. Keller is signed through the 2028 season.

Keller’s fit with the Blue Jays is natural in many ways. Toronto will see right-handers Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer reach free agency at season’s end, vacating two spots in the rotation. Kevin Gausman is signed for only one additional year and will be a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. Right-hander Jose Berrios has an opt-out clause in his contract that allows him to reenter the free-agent market in the 2026-27 offseason as well. Fifth starter Eric Lauer, who’s been a godsend in Toronto after signing a minor league contract, is controllable via arbitration through 2026.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Trade Deadline Outlook]

Adding a steady arm like Keller, who’s in his prime and affordably signed for three additional seasons, has to hold appeal for the Blue Jays — particularly given the number of pitching injuries they’ve seen among their prospect class and other young arms in recent years.

Left-handers Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Barriera and right-handers Jake Bloss, Landen Maroudis and T.J. Brock have all undergone UCL surgery within the past 15 months. Lefty Adam Macko had knee surgery in February and has been roughed up for 23 runs in 25 Triple-A innings upon returning. Former AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah is still on the mend from last year’s UCL procedure and is only controllable through the 2027 season. Bowden Francis has been unable to replicate last year’s late-season showing and has now been out more than a month due to a shoulder impingement.

The Jays still have some notable young arms. Right-handers Trey Yesavage and Khal Stephen, their top two picks in the 2024 draft, are enjoying strong years in their first full professional seasons, and several lower-level arms have made big strides in 2025 but might still be a few years away (e.g. 2022 19th rounder Gage Stanifer, 2020 international signee Kendry Rojas). On the whole, the pitching group has still been hit with a broad range of injuries.

Keller is being paid $15MM this season — just $500K less than the Jays paid to sign the 40-year-old Scherzer to a one-year deal in free agency this past offseason and the same amount secured by older starters Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb. Keller is then owed a combined $54.5MM from 2026-28. Added to the remainder of this year’s salary, Keller has almost exactly $60MM yet to be paid out for his three-plus seasons of club control. The Jays have $184MM on next year’s books, which is $70MM less than their current payroll level.

[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates Trade Deadline Outlook]

It’s an eminently affordable rate for a pitcher of Keller’s quality. While he’s not an ace, he’s a former second-round pick and top prospect who has blossomed into a steady mid-rotation arm and could be seen by some other clubs as a pitcher with a bit of yet-untapped potential. Several Pirates pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Joe Musgrove, Clay Holmes among them — have found new gears upon being traded to other organizations over the years, after all, and Keller is also enjoying his most successful season to date.

Through 20 starts and 119 innings, Keller has pitched to a career-best 3.48 earned run average. His 18.7% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 5.5% walk rate is a career-best. There are some red flags, as Keller’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down a half-mile compared to last year and down 1.3 mph from his 2023 levels, but his heater has slowly gained a bit of life as the season has worn on. He’s also allowing a bit more hard contact than usual and experiencing pretty good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball ratio; his 6.7% mark in that regard is well shy of the 11.8% he carried into the season.

Even with a bit of ERA regression, however, Keller would still be a solid value at his current price, and there’s always the chance that the change in scenery unlocks another gear as well. For a Jays club that could plausibly see every current member of its rotation come off the books by the end of the 2026 season, a July acquisition of Keller would not only fortify the current roster but also represent a bit of proactive shopping.

Toronto also has a number of near-MLB position prospects who could intrigue a Pirates team that’s bereft of quality young hitters — Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, RJ Schreck, Jonatan Clase and Will Wagner among them. Not all of those names are of the caliber to be a headliner in a Keller deal, and the Bucs won’t necessarily focus solely on young hitters in a trade, but the two parties align on a potential Keller swap in many ways.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

Mets Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Mets have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  New York joins the Cubs as teams known to be linked to Keller, who placed second on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 40 trade candidates heading into the deadline.

It was just a week ago that the Mets got an up-close look at Keller when he held them to one run over 5 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh’s 9-1 victory over New York on June 27.  That outing was part of a nice five-start stretch for Keller that has seen the righty post a 2.40 ERA over his last 30 innings of work.  For the season as a whole, Keller has a 3.64 ERA over 106 1/3 innings, delivering both quality and reliability over his regular turns in the Pittsburgh rotation.

This durability likely has particular appeal for a Mets pitching staff that has been hit hard by injuries.  Of the five pitchers who have tossed the most innings for New York this season, Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill are on the 15-day injured list, and Griffin Canning recent underwent a season-ending surgery to fix a ruptured Achilles.  Sean Manaea has yet to pitch this season due to an oblique strain and then a loose body found in his throwing elbow, but he is scheduled to make his return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Since Senga could also be back within the week, the Mets could roll with a rotation of Senga, Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Frankie Montas through July to see if this starting five is enough to strengthen the team’s hopes of capturing the NL East and then a World Series title.  Given all of the question marks within that group, adding a stable arm like Keller would certainly seem like a logical move to keep the rotation strong for the stretch run.

Beyond the prospect cost of a Keller trade, the Mets would face a particular financial penalty if they were to take on most or all of the right-hander’s remaining contract.  Keller is owed the remainder of his $15MM salary for 2025, and is then owed $54.5MM over the course of the 2026-28 seasons.  That would put another hefty commitment on the books for a Mets team whose luxury tax number (roughly $326.8MM, as per RosterResource) is well over the maximum tax penalty tier of $301MM.

Some salary offset could be included in any potential trade between the Mets and Pirates, though that would run counter to the Bucs’ desire to shed some payroll by moving Keller in the first place.  With so much young pitching either already in Pittsburgh’s rotation or on the cusp of the majors, the thinking has been that the Pirates would move at least one or both of Keller and impending free agent Andrew Heaney in order to add some young talent (probably on the offensive side), create more openings for Triple-A call-ups, and to create financial flexibility.

“There seems to be a line of thinking where if they can get that money off the payroll, it can be used to acquire a hitter,” a source tells Hiles, which perhaps hints at a scenario where the Pirates could then pivot to acquire a somewhat pricey bat (likely a veteran).  This would indicate a strategy of both selling and buying at the deadline, with the additions being aimed for either the future or perhaps even the short-term.  Despite their 38-51 record, the Pirates haven’t yet fully committed to a full-on sale at the deadline, as the source says that the club’s 6-0 homestand this week might have created some hope that a later surge is possible.

Broadly, the team has played better since Derek Shelton was fired as manager, and interim skipper Don Kelly has led the team to a 26-25 record.  Still, the Bucs remain solidly in last place in the NL Central, and it would take a major hot streak just to get to .500, let alone in contention.  While Pittsburgh might not be ready to explore trades this early into July, the team remains “one of a few teams expected to sell this trade season,” as Hiles puts it.  It is also fair to assume that the budget-conscious Pirates would always be open moving Keller’s contract regardless of their place in the standings, even in the unlikely scenario that the team does catch fire in the weeks leading up to the deadline.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?
Yes, they should trade him before this year's deadline. 69.42% (3,510 votes)
No, he should be a building block in their rotation. 21.93% (1,109 votes)
Yes, but they should wait until the offseason or next year's deadline. 8.64% (437 votes)
Total Votes: 5,056

Pirates Reportedly Have Very Few Untouchable Players At Trade Deadline

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The Pirates will be deadline sellers yet again, which should be clear to anyone who takes a glance at their 32-50 record and -68 run differential. There’d been hope earlier in the year among some fanbases that Pittsburgh would even weigh the merits of trading ace Paul Skenes for what would perhaps have to be the richest trade return in history, but GM Ben Cherington has publicly quashed speculation on that front. Outside of Skenes, however, it seems the Bucs will be broadly open for business. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have both reported within the past 18 hours that Skenes and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen — who has repeatedly stated since his return to Pittsburgh a few years ago that he has no desire to play elsewhere — are the only two big leaguers who are seen as off the table.

That seemingly puts not only the expected trade candidates in play (e.g. Andrew Heaney, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, etc.), but also more controllable names like center fielder Oneil Cruz and longtime stars like outfielder Bryan Reynolds and right-hander Mitch Keller, both of whom signed an extension within the past two years. The Bucs surely aren’t going to move top prospect Bubba Chandler, but the majority of their major league roster could at least be discussed.

Keller stands as one of the most interesting names to watch, not just on the Pirates, but around the league as a whole. The former second-rounder is in the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract and being paid $15MM this year. He’s owed $16.5MM in 2026, $18MM in 2027 and $20MM in 2028. That’s a steep cost for the low-payroll Pirates but affordable for many clubs, particularly given the increasing prices of free-agent pitching on the open market.

The 29-year-old Keller isn’t an ace but was thought to have No. 2-3 starter upside in his days as a top prospect. He’s settled in a step below that, regularly giving the Bucs plenty of innings and an ERA in the low 4.00s with quality rate stats. The 2025 season is no exception. Keller is sitting on a 4.02 ERA in 94 innings. He’s averaged just under six frames per start this season. His 18.5% strikeout rate is a career-low, but Keller’s 6.1% walk rate is excellent and his 45.5% ground-ball rate is strong. Keller’s velocity is down a touch, sitting 93.9 mph in 2025 after averaging 94.4 mph in 2024 and 95.2 mph in 2023, but he’s picking up steam as the season goes along. He sat 93.5 mph in March/April but has averaged 94.1 mph since the calendar flipped to May, for instance.

The current version of Keller would draw plenty of interest even if he weren’t to make any gains with a new club, though teams around the league could well hope that Keller is the latest premier starter to thrive upon being traded away from the Pirates. Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow and Joe Musgrove have all gone on to enjoy top-of-the-rotation success upon being traded by Pittsburgh. Keller, a former top prospect with a 6’3″, 212-pound frame who’s shown flashes of greater bat-missing potential — he struck out 25.5% of his opponents in 2023 — could prove tantalizing, particularly in a market that’s thin on pitching.

Rosenthal suggests that with Pirates not enjoying the attendance increase they likely expected at the time Keller was extended — the Bucs were hopeful of emerging from their rebuild at that point, but injuries and downturns from young players have scuttled that thought — the right-hander and his increasing salary could be more likely to move. Heyman suggests that a Keller trade isn’t as likely due to what’ll surely be a steep asking price.

Given the dearth of starters on the trade market and the deep stock of young arms the Pirates have cultivated, it does seem there’s a real chance to cash in on Keller. Skenes is already cemented as the Pirates’ ace. Jared Jones will miss this season but hopefully return in the first half of 2026. Chandler will debut this summer, and the list of rotation candidates beyond that trio include Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Bailey Falter (if he’s not traded) and the currently injured Johan Oviedo. Additional arms could join that contingent within the next five weeks, as the Pirates will be adding various new prospects and/or young big leaguers via a series of trades.

A trade of Reynolds would be more difficult to engineer. The 30-year-old is signed through 2030 but is currently scuffling through his least-productive season since the shortened 2020 campaign. In 330 plate appearances, Reynolds carries a tepid .233/.303/.372 batting line — 14% worse than average production, by measure of wRC+. That’s not what a team would want from any player, of course, but it’s magnified by his seven-year, $100MM contract extension, which stands as the largest deal in franchise history.

Reynolds, however, is still hitting the ball on the screws; in fact, he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before. This year’s 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate are career-highs. His 10.7% barrel rate is just barely shy of his career-best 11.1% in 2023 — a season in which he produced a much more robust .263/.330/.460 output and slugged 24 homers. Reynolds is hitting just .600 on line-drives this year, and while “just .600” sounds like a ridiculous statement, the league-average on liners is .705 and his career mark entering the year was .697.

It’s not all bad luck driving his downturn at the plate. Reynolds’ 25.8% strikeout rate is a career-high in a 162-game season, although even that’s a bit misleading. The switch-hitter’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 25.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate both stand as the second-best marks of his career. His 72.6 mph bat speed, per Statcast, is actually his highest mark since that stat began being tracked in 2023. Reynolds isn’t punching out more because he’s expanding the zone or because he’s no longer capable of catching up to velocity; he’s simply swinging less, particularly within the strike zone, which seems more correctable than a decline in bat speed or erosion of plate discipline.

Reynolds is being paid $12MM this season and has five years and $76MM left on his contract thereafter. He hit decently in May before falling back into a slump, but Reynolds has shown some signs of life with eight hits (three doubles) over his past four games. If he can keep building up momentum, it’s possible a well-timed hot streak and this year’s gaudy batted-ball metrics will generate some interest. Still, his contract contains a limited six-team no-trade clause, and while we saw Rafael Devers shipped out just a few weeks ago, it’s nonetheless exceedingly rare to see a player traded when he has this much time left on a guaranteed contract.

Cruz, 26, is the other name who is notable by his absence from Pittsburgh’s list of purportedly untouchable players. He long rated as one of the organization’s top prospects and one of the top prospects in the entire sport. He posted monster numbers in April and hit decently in May before falling into an awful slump this month. Cruz carried a .230/.347/.481 batting line into June but has cratered with a .148/.247/.210 line this month. He’s now hitting .205/.317/.398 on the season.

It’s an unexciting line, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game. He’s a towering 6’7″, 240 pounds and offers explosive athleticism. Cruz is 26-for-29 in stolen base attempts this season and has swatted 13 home runs. He’s averaging a ridiculous 96 mph off the bat with a 22% barrel rate and a 56.7% hard-hit rate. Only Aaron Judge has a higher barrel rate. Only Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and James Wood have better hard-hit rates. No one in MLB has a higher average exit velocity or higher bat speed.

There are major hit tool concerns, evidenced by this year’s 33% strikeout rate and Cruz’s career 31.9% mark. However, Cruz is walking at a stout 13.5% clip as well and has actually reduced his chase rate and swinging-strike rate over last year’s levels. Like Reynolds, he’s swinging far less often this season; Cruz swung at 46.2% of the pitches he saw last year (and 61.3% of the strikes he saw) compared to just 40.7% in 2025 (and 55.9% of the strikes he’s seen). The team’s overall swing rate on pitches within the zone from 2024 to 2025 is virtually unchanged, but for whatever reason, Cruz and Reynolds have taken up much more passive approaches — ostensibly to their detriment.

Cruz has gone from a poor-fielding shortstop to a passable center field defender while learning his new position on the fly at the big league level. His plus-plus speed and elite arm strength — he not-so-shockingly leads all big leaguers in arm strength as well, per Statcast — lend themselves well to center field. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if he emerged as a plus defender there as he gains experience. Cruz was benched earlier this week for failing to run out a grounder that someone with his speed should easily have been able to beat, resulting in an inning-ending double play, but he said after the game that he’d lost track of the number of outs. Cruz took fault for the situation and said he supported manager Don Kelly’s decision to lift him from the game (link via the Associated Press).

Even if Cruz’s recent struggles persist, the asking price in a trade would presumably be enormous. Players with this type of tool set simply don’t come around often. Add in that he’s controllable via arbitration for three years after the current season, and Pittsburgh would need a substantial return to consider parting ways with him. The upside on Cruz is so great that it’s hard to see the Pirates actually trading him, but he’ll be a fascinating long-shot target for teams seeking center field help.

There are plenty of other trade candidates to consider. Lefty relievers Caleb Ferguson and veteran infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are on a cheap one-year deals and could be moved. The Bucs would likely love to shed the four years and $36MM owed to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes beyond the current season. He’s still an elite defender, but chronic back problems that developed after he signed his $70MM extension have severely sapped his production at the plate.

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