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Pirates Receiving Trade Interest In Hedges, Hill, Holderman

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July 28: Catcher Austin Hedges has also drawn trade interest, Heyman tweets. While the veteran backstop provides nothing on the offensive side of the game — Hedges is a career .189/.246/.323 hitter who’s batting .181/.234/.231 this year — he’s long been regarded as a premier defender at a critical position. A club looking to add a defensive-minded backup could perhaps have interest in Hedges, who’s earning $5MM this season and still has about $1.77MM of that sum still to be paid out.

Moving Hedges makes sense for a Pirates club with two of the sport’s top catching prospects, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, both ready for a legitimate audition in the Majors. Both are already on the big league roster, and Davis has seen some action in right field to get his bat in the lineup. A Hedges trade would clear out more playing time for each youngster. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with Hedges yesterday about the possibility of a trade and his shift toward a mentor role for the younger Davis  and Rodriguez. Both young backstops lauded Hedges for his eagerness to take them under his wing as they continue their development.

July 27: The Pirates have received some trade interest in starter Rich Hill and setup man Colin Holderman, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Hill, in particular, seems a good bet to move within the next few days.

Pittsburgh signed the 43-year-old southpaw to a one-year, $8MM free agent contract last offseason. Hill has continued to offer the kind of back-of-the-rotation production not far off that of his past few seasons. He owns a 4.82 ERA over 21 starts and 114 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit below average, while he’s issuing walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip.

It’s not overwhelming production, but teams have valued Hill’s general stability at the back of a staff and veteran clubhouse presence. He’s been on six teams within the past five seasons, generally working at the end of a contending rotation.

For a while, the Bucs seemed as if they’d stick in the postseason picture. They’ve gone cold of late and fallen out of the mix, setting the stage for at least a moderate sell-off. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana was shipped off to the Brewers this afternoon. Hill is in the same spot as an impending free agent who could have modest appeal to a contender. He’s due around $2.67MM from here forward.

The Pirates can set a loftier ask on Holderman. Acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach at last summer’s deadline, the right-hander has somewhat quietly developed into a quality reliever for the Bucs. He struggled down the stretch last summer but has solid numbers across the board this year.

Holderman, 27, owns a 3.71 ERA through 34 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is fairly typical, while he has above-average control and a quality 51.5% grounder percentage. He’s handling hitters from both sides of the plate, mixes three pitches and has picked up 15 holds in a leverage role for Pittsburgh.

That’s valuable production, and Holderman’s affordability only adds to the appeal. He surpassed one year of MLB service this season. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next year and is controllable through the 2028 campaign. Every contender could fit him on the books and into the middle innings, but the Bucs also have zero urgency to deal him for a suboptimal return.

Of course, the Bucs’ top potential trade candidates would be mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller and All-Star closer David Bednar. Heyman reported earlier this week the Pirates were willing to consider offers on those players. Both are under arbitration control for multiple seasons beyond this one (Keller through ’25, Bednar past ’26). The ask on each will be very high as a result, and deals seem significant long shots. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote yesterday that a Keller or Bednar trade was very unlikely, characterizing the openness to offers as standard due diligence for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

Pirates Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On David Bednar, Mitch Keller

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4:14PM: The Pirates are also open to hearing what teams might offer for Mitch Keller, Heyman tweets, but like with Bednar, a trade doesn’t seem likely.  It would seem like Pittsburgh is taking a broad, due-diligence approach to the deadline just in case a special opportunity arises, yet moving a building-block type like Keller or Bednar would indeed require a real blockbuster of an offer.

3:25PM: The Pirates are willing to listen to trade offers on closer David Bednar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that it will likely be difficult to get a deal together.

Bednar, 28, would undoubtedly be of interest to any club around the league, given the way he keeps taking his game to new levels. Across 2021 and 2022, he posted a 2.40 earned run average in 106 appearances, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while walking 7.8%. This year, he’s cut his walk rate to just 5.8%, helping him drop his ERA to 1.15. He earned 19 saves last year and has already matched that figure here in 2023.

On top of his obvious skills, Bednar would have plenty of appeal to MLB clubs based on his status. He came into the 2023 season with two years and 76 days of service time. That means he’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter and won’t be scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Just about every contending club can use a strong bullpen upgrade at this time of year, bumping every other reliever down one spot in the pecking order.

Of course, the same qualities that make Bednar attractive to the other 29 clubs also work on the Pirates. The club has faded after a hot start and is now 43-56, but they have shown enough potential this year to suggest that maybe contention isn’t too far away. Reliever performance is volatile and there is a school of thought that a club in seller position should be open to moving any member of its bullpen, which makes it fairly logical for the Bucs to listen and see what’s out there. But Bednar’s elite performance and local ties, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised nearby, suggest they will need to be blown away in order for a deal to come together.

It’s important to distinguish between a club that’s willing to listen to offers versus one that is actively shopping a player around. There’s nothing to suggest the Pirates have done the latter, so it’s possible that their open mind to incoming calls is merely due diligence. Perhaps some club makes them an offer they can’t refuse, but it seems the most likely scenario is that he stays in Pittsburgh as they take another shot at contention next year.

Although obtaining Bednar may prove difficult, teams looking for quality bullpen upgrades should have plenty of other options among the potential trade candidates this summer. Some other names that figure to be more attainable include Scott Barlow, David Robertson, Jordan Hicks and many others.

Who Could The Pirates Trade At The Deadline?

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The Pirates jumped out to a hot start in 2023, sitting on a 20-9 record at the end of April that made it seem like the days of rebuilding were suddenly in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to maintain that, falling back to earth with an 8-18 record in May. Ownership was still supportive of buying at the deadline as recently as June 21, but the club has continued to slide in the standings.

The Bucs now find themselves with a record of 41-49. They are fourth in the National League Central, well behind the Reds and Brewers. They’re also behind the third-place Cubs, who have the best run differential of the bunch and a soft schedule coming out of the break. FanGraphs currently pegs Pittsburgh’s playoff odds at just 1.4%.

Barring a tremendous surge after the All-Star break, the club will likely have to set their sights on 2024. That will mean having discussions about trading away veterans, both to recoup some younger players to help in future seasons and to open up playing time for the players they already have. Let’s take a look at some options, though there aren’t too many players on the roster who fit the bill.

Rental Players

Rich Hill

Hill continues to defy Father Time and is still a reasonably effective starter at the age of 43. He’s tossed 98 innings over 18 starts this year and currently has a 4.78 ERA, striking out 21.1% of batters faced while walking 9% and getting grounders at a 35.9% clip. He’s making $8MM this year, with about $2.6MM still to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

He won’t command a huge return as a back-end innings eater, but the Bucs could perhaps line up with some club that simply wants a guy to take the ball every five days. Just a couple of years ago, the Nationals were able to get Lane Thomas in return for a 37-year-old Jon Lester and his 5.02 ERA at that time. The Pirates shouldn’t expect that kind of return on Hill, but it serves to demonstrate that they could at least take a flier on someone by putting Hill out there.

Carlos Santana

Santana, 37, isn’t likely to be a huge deadline addition at this stage of his career. However, it was just a year ago that the Royals were able to trade him to the Mariners for a couple of younger relievers. This year, he’s still showing his good approach at the plate, with his 10.5% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate both better than average. He’s hit nine home runs, but his .233/.311/.390 batting line is a bit below average, translating to a wRC+ of 91.

The switch-hitter has always been a bit better against lefties and that continues to be the case this year, as he’s slashing .260/.348/.416 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 109. There are likely some contenders who would be happy to utilize him as a short-side platoon bat and pinch-hitter off the bench. His first base defense continues to be considered above average. He’s making $6.725MM this year, which will leave around $2.2MM at deadline time.

Ji Man Choi

Choi, 32, appeared in nine games before a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot sent him to the injured list. He was reinstated just before the break, and his form in the next few weeks will likely determine his trade interest. He’s hit .237/.340/.428 in his career with a 13.1% walk rate, leading to a wRC+ of 114. The left-handed hitter has been especially strong with the platoon advantage, hitting .245/.351/.454 against righties in his career for a 124 wRC+. He’s earning $4.65MM this year and about $1.5MM will be remaining at the end of the month.

Austin Hedges

Hedges has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game but doesn’t provide much with the bat. That’s especially true this year, where he’s hitting just .179/.230/.232. His wRC+ of 26 is dead last in the league among players with at least 170 plate appearances. Yet he continues to get work based on his defensive acumen and strong reputation for working with pitchers.

Trading catchers in midseason is generally tricky, as it can be challenging to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. If the Bucs can’t line up a trade for that reason, they may have to think about moving on from Hedges regardless. Catching prospect Henry Davis is already up with the big league club to get his bat in the lineup but is playing the outfield at the moment. The club’s other top catching prospect, Endy Rodríguez, is in Triple-A and perhaps ready for a promotion. Both Davis and Rodríguez play other positions and it remains to be seen who the club considers its true “catcher of the future,” so perhaps they could use the last few months of the season to get a look at one or both.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen makes theoretical sense as a trade candidate since he’s 36 years old, an impending free agent and performing well at the plate this year. The Rangers have reportedly expressed interest, but all signs seem to point to Cutch staying put. He’s been quite open about how happy he is to be back in Pittsburgh and plans to spend the rest of his career there. The club is apparently on board with that and doesn’t seem to have any designs on trading him.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Jarlín García

García has a 2.89 ERA dating back to 2019 and had that figure at 3.74 last year but was non-tendered by the Giants. The Bucs swooped in and signed him to a $2.5MM deal with a $3.25MM club option for 2024. Unfortunately, he’s been on the injured list all year due to a biceps injury. Players on the IL can still be traded, but there won’t be much interest unless he shows some progress in the next few weeks.

Longer-Term Players

Mitch Keller

There are no indications the club has any plans of trading Keller. In fact, he’s the best rotation building block they have, with his 3.31 ERA this year putting him just outside the top 10 in the National League. But although he’s only been breaking out over the past year or so, his control is dwindling since he’s a bit of a late bloomer. Debuting back in 2019, he struggled in his first few seasons before putting things together recently and now has just two seasons of control left beyond this one.

The Bucs are in a similar situation with Keller to where they were with Bryan Reynolds not too long ago. Reynolds was clearly an important member of the club but there was a ticking clock as his free agency was getting closer. In that case, the two sides lined up on an extension to potentially keep him in Pittsburgh through 2031, and a similar decision might have to be made on Keller.

David Bednar

Bednar, 28, continues to cement himself as one of the better relievers in the league. He has a 1.27 ERA this year, striking out 29.8% of hitters while walking just 5%, earning 17 saves in the process. Given the volatility of reliever performance, there could be an argument for the Bucs to cash in while his trade value is high, as they can currently market him with three seasons of control beyond this one. However, Bednar’s a fan favorite, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised in the area. Since the club has shown flashes that suggest the rebuild won’t go on for much longer, it seems unlikely they would consider moving a key piece like Bednar. As with Keller, other teams will still surely try, but he’s likely staying put.

Connor Joe

Joe isn’t anywhere close to free agency, as he will have four years of club control remaining after this one. But while many of the players on the club’s roster are in their mid-20s, Joe will be turning 31 next month. He’s also having a decent season, hitting .240/.332/.421 for a wRC+ of 106 while playing first base and the outfield corners. Perhaps the club would be tempted to put him on the trading block now since his trade value will likely only decrease as he ages and becomes more expensive. He’ll finish this year with his service time at 2.136 and could qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player.

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Ultimately, the Bucs don’t have too much to offer as sellers this winter. The veterans they do have will get some interest but won’t be headlining any blockbuster deals. If they get on a hot streak in the next few weeks, perhaps they just decide to hold onto everyone and hope for a strong finish. But their chances of contention should be much stronger next year and they could start lining things up for that.

By moving Hedges, they could get a look at Davis and Rodríguez as catchers at the big league level while continuing to evaluate their bats. By moving Santana, Choi and/or Joe out of the first base/designated hitter/corner outfield mix, they could open up plate appearances for players currently in the minors, whether that’s a prospect like Liover Peguero or a potential late bloomer like Miguel Andujar. The latter struggled in the majors earlier this year but has hit .409/.459/.634 in Triple-A since accepting an outright assignment two months ago. If added to the club’s roster later this year, they could retain him via arbitration for 2024.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Cardinals’ Contreras U-Turn, Mitch Keller’s Breakout, The Padres

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Episode 7 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The Cardinals’ U-turn on having Willson Contreras catch (4:22)
  • Mitch Keller’s breakout season with the Pirates, and whether he can be their ace moving forward (10:32)
  • When can Reds fans expect to see Elly De La Cruz in the big leagues? (17:09)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez’ form for the Tigers, and whether Detroit can contend this season (20:56)
  • The Padres’ slow start to the season (25:34)

Check out our past episodes!

Pirates Discussing Contract Extension With Mitch Keller

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The Pirates and representatives for right-hander Mitch Keller have been in talks about a contract extension, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  There isn’t any sense whether or not the two sides are particularly close to an agreement, though Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested last month that the club was looking to extend more core players now that Bryan Reynolds had completed his own long-term deal.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Keller as a logical extension candidate at the time, and he further described Keller’s breakout over the last two seasons in a recent piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  Since cutting back on the usage of his four-seam fastball in 2021, Keller has blossomed, with Steve observing that “fast forward to 2023, and Keller’s pitch arsenal is even more diverse thanks to a revamped cutter.  He’s throwing his four-seamer, sinker and cutter all at a 21-24% clip, mixing in a sweeper and curve that he uses about equally…It’s a much different arsenal than in 2021, when Keller was throwing 57% four-seamers, 24% cutters, 14% curveballs and mixing in a show-me changeup.”

It wasn’t like Keller’s emergence came out of nowhere, as he was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and a regular on top-50 prospect lists during his climb up Pittsburgh’s minor league ladder.  His first few shots at the majors didn’t go well, however, as Keller posted a 6.02 ERA over 170 1/3 innings from 2019-21.

After a promising step forward in 2022, Keller has now looked more like a front-of-the-rotation arm during his excellent start to the 2023 campaign.  Today’s outing against the Orioles was the latest example, as Keller allowed just four hits and no walks while recording 13 strikeouts over seven shutout innings.  This gem improved Keller’s ERA to 2.38 over 56 2/3 IP, and just about all of his Statcast numbers are well above the league average.

Keller just turned 27 last month, and he is earning $2,437,500 this season in his first of three arbitration-eligible years.  This means Keller will be entering his age-30 season when he enters free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, unless the Pirates lock him up beforehand on an extension.

Keller’s agents at Tidal Sports Group might logically point to Logan Webb’s recent five-year, $90MM extension with the Giants as a comp for a potential deal for their client.  Webb is seven months younger than Keller, but the two have comparable big league service times and somewhat similar resumes as pitchers who went through a rough beginning to their MLB careers before posting consecutive quality seasons.

Of course, Webb had fully completed his second good year at the time of his extension while Keller only really started to pitch well midway through the 2022 campaign and his 2023 success does represent only nine starts.  That said, Keller’s price tag is only rising as he continues to post great results, so he could choose to bet on himself and wait until after the season to pursue an extension.

The fact that the perennially low-payroll Pirates are even engaged in long-term contract talks represents a turning point for the club, as while a brutal slump in May has curbed the enthusiasm of the team’s 20-9 start to the season, Pittsburgh still has a 22-19 record.  The Bucs have just one winning record in the previous seven seasons, as the team’s previous contending roster ran out of steam, and the club then engaged in a lengthy rebuilding process.

The early results have indicated that the Pirates’ rebuild may be wrapping up, and to that end, Nutting has authorized the two biggest contracts in franchise history.  While still smaller than the priciest contracts of most other teams around the majors, the Pirates signed Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM extension in April 2022, and then extended Reynolds with seven years and $100MM of new money last month.  The Pirates aren’t likely to ever become truly big spenders, yet locking up certain cornerstone talents is a proven method for smaller-market teams to gain some cost certainty over premium talent.

Pirates Could Pursue More Contract Extensions

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The Pirates’ extension of Bryan Reynolds — seven years and $100MM on top of his current $6.75MM salary — put an end to a long-running saga of trade rumors swirling around the All-Star outfielder. It’s the first nine-figure contract in franchise history and the second long-term deal with a hopeful core player of the past 14 months; Pittsburgh also signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM deal prior to the 2022 season. Speaking at yesterday’s press conference to announce the Reynolds extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested that he hopes to work out long-term deals with additional core players (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

Nutting noted that “to a great degree, we’re just getting started,” going on to call Reynolds’ new contract “a huge step forward for the franchise” before adding that he’s “confident we’ll have future steps as we go forward.” Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out Gorman’s full piece for comments not only from Nutting but also from Reynolds himself and from general manager Ben Cherington.

On the one hand, it’s fairly common for owners and baseball operations leaders to offer up what’s essentially boilerplate executive-speak about wanting to extend core players on a young club. On the other, Nutting has kept a notoriously tight budget and small payroll for the Pirates. The extensions for Hayes and especially for Reynolds mark a definitive change in course for the club, and with fresh off guaranteeing his top player an additional $100MM in guaranteed money, Nutting’s words perhaps carry a bit of extra credence.

If the Bucs do plan to explore — or already have explored — long-term pacts with additional players, there are a handful of logical candidates for such a deal. In the rotation, right-handers Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller both increasingly look like solid building blocks, though they’re at very different stages of their careers. The 23-year-old Contreras doesn’t yet have a full season of Major League service time, putting his earning power on an extension considerably south of Keller. The Reds just locked up righty Hunter Greene, who was controllable for five more seasons, on a six-year, $53MM contract. Contreras is even further removed from free agency and would presumably come with a lower price tag.

Keller, meanwhile, is earning $2.4375MM in 2023 with just two more seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The 2014 second-rounder ranked as one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to his debut in 2019, and while it’s taken some time for him to get there, Keller has begun to solidify himself as a quality starter.

Dating back to last May, when he added a sinker to his repertoire and began to rely less heavily on his four-seamer, the 27-year-old sports a 3.28 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in 159 1/3 innings. That includes an impressive six-inning, two-run, 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers today. If he were to continue at this pace, he’d have a strong case in extension talks. For some context, Keller will be in the same service class following the 2023 season that Kyle Freeland (five years, $64.5MM) and Pablo Lopez (four years, $73.5MM) were when they signed their own extensions. The Bucs could try to pursue something sooner, but regardless, much of Keller’s breakout looks sustainable.

Elsewhere on the roster, closer David Bednar is a local product who’s emerged as a fan favorite and as one of the game’s better relievers. Since coming over from the Padres as part of the return for Joe Musgrove, he’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 30 saves and 17 holds. His 2023 campaign has been particularly impressive, as Bednar has yielded just one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

That said, relievers are notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis, and Bednar is already 28 years old. The Pirates control him through his age-31 season and might find some risk in locking him into an extension that would effectively be buying his age-32 campaign and perhaps a season or two thereafter.

In the lineup, the Pirates have some interesting candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is currently out while recovering from a fractured ankle but has displayed some of the most tantalizing tools in all of baseball when healthy. His development is still a work in progress, particularly with regard to his approach at the plate, but few players can match his combination of power, speed and athleticism. Meanwhile, outfielder Jack Suwinski has quickly become a Statcast darling, with eye-popping exit velocity, barrel rates and sprint speed. Both young hitters are controllable through the 2028 season at present.

The Bucs have plenty of young talent beyond that grouping — some of it yet to debut in the Majors. Catchers Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are among the most highly regarded in the sport at their position. Right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester are both considered potential rotation pieces in the long term. Infielder Nick Gonzales just hit the minor league injured list with a shoulder strain today but is in Triple-A and could potentially make his debut later this year if the issue proves minor.

Broadly speaking, the Pirates have a deep and talented system, with plenty of interesting long-term pieces already on the roster and also on the cusp of debuting while biding their time in the upper minors. There’s always risk for a low-payroll club like this to lock players up so early, as the margin for error is thinner than with a deep-pocketed rival. That said, hitting a home run on an early extension can also be key in allowing teams in this payroll sphere to spend a bit more in free agency, if their core players are locked in at affordable rates. Only time will tell whether Nutting’s comments were merely lip service or the beginning of a welcome trend for Bucs fans, but regardless of which is true, the organization’s future looks increasingly bright.

Pirates Injury Notes: Hayes, Keller

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The Pirates placed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes on the 10-day injured list yesterday, retroactive to August 13.  Hayes has missed the Bucs’ last four games due to a middle-back muscle strain, and he’ll now get a few more days to recuperate while the Pirates can play with a full roster.  Kevin Padlo (recently claimed off waivers from the Mariners) was called up from Triple-A to take Hayes’ spot on the open roster.

Now in his third MLB season, Hayes has yet to fully live up to his top-prospect billing, at least at the plate.  The 25-year-old is making plenty of hard contact, but it has translated to only a .251/.323/.358 slash line and six home runs over 434 plate appearances this season.  After exploding onto the scene with a 1.124 OPS in 95 PA in his 2020 rookie campaign, Hayes has only a .685 OPS in 830 subsequent PA in the majors.

On the plus side, Hayes has already established himself as an elite defensive player.  Hayes leads all players in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (+16) and only four players have more Outs Above Average than Hayes’ +12 total.  While Nolan Arenado is also up near the top of both lists, Hayes certainly looks like at least a finalist for this year’s NL Gold Glove at third base.

It doesn’t appear as though Hayes’ injury is too serious, so the Pirates can only hope he can return to action in short order and continue to garner more experience.  A cornerstone piece of Pittsburgh’s rebuild, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70MM extension in April that stands as the largest contract in Pirates history.

Mitch Keller is another younger player the Bucs had tabbed as a key part of the future, and like Hayes, Keller’s early returns in his MLB career have been mixed.  It also seems like Keller is facing some injury problems, as right shoulder fatigue forced him out of last night’s start against the Red Sox after two innings of work.

Keller’s average velocity was down on all of his pitches, yet the right-hander chalked the performance up as “just one of those days.”  Speaking to MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos and other reporters, Keller said his shoulder was feeling better after the game, though it remains to be seen if the Pirates might at least skip or push back Keller’s next start, even if an IL trip isn’t necessary.

After a rough 2021 season that saw him post a 6.17 ERA/4.98 SIERA in 100 2/3 innings, Keller’s 2022 campaign has at least been an improvement in bottom-line numbers.  The right-hander has a 4.49 ERA/4.29 SIERA in 114 1/3 frames this year, due in part to only a .329 BABIP (down from his sky-high .388 figure last year).  However, any above-average BABIP isn’t a good sign for a pitcher who relies on grounders more than strikeouts, as Keller has only a 20.7% strikeout rate over his career and his walk rates have also been below average.

Keller will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and his relative lack of success at the MLB level should result in a pretty modest 2023 salary.  Considering the number of question marks in Pittsburgh’s rotation, Keller probably isn’t likely to be non-tendered, though a trade might be a possibility if the Pirates no longer see Keller as a building block.

2022 Should Be A Key Season For Pair Of Pirates’ Former Top Prospects

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Amidst another rebuilding year, the Pirates have ample uncertainty in the starting rotation. Free agent signee José Quintana is going to get one spot, with the Bucs hoping he performs well enough to be flipped midseason for younger talent. JT Brubaker had solid enough strikeout and walk numbers over 24 starts last year to get another opportunity, while Zach Thompson — acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings deal — is likely to be in the mix.

Among those likely under consideration for spots at the back of the rotation are two former top prospects: right-handers Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. Both pitchers are in their mid-20s, and they were each among Baseball America’s top 100 overall farmhands as recently as three years ago. At the peak of their prospect status, both pitchers were viewed as potential long-term members of a starting rotation. Yet neither has yet established himself as such, and one could argue that 2022 will function as a make-or-break sort of season for both.

Keller has been a familiar name for Pirates fans for some time. A second-round pick out of high school in 2014, he emerged as one of the sport’s most promising pitching prospects after a dominating showing in Low-A in 2016. Entering the 2017 campaign, BA considered him the game’s #22 overall farmhand. He’d remain among the top 60 prospects in each of the following three seasons, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a plus curveball that led many to project him as a future mid-rotation arm.

The Iowa native made his big league debut in 2019. While he allowed a 7.13 ERA over his first 48 MLB innings, Keller was plagued by an astounding .475 batting average on balls in play. His 28.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk percentage and 11.8% swinging strike rate all looked like indicators he could indeed be a mid-rotation or better arm in the making. Keller was limited to just five starts in the shortened 2020 campaign, ironically posting a very good ERA (2.91) but dreadful peripherals. Still, as he entered his age-25 season last year, Keller looked to be a key piece of the Bucs’ long-term plans.

That’s perhaps more of a question now, though. He started 23 games and worked 100 2/3 innings, but he managed just a 6.17 ERA. As with 2019, some horrible ball in play results (.388 opponents’ BABIP) played a role in his struggles keeping runs off the board. But Keller’s fielding-independent numbers weren’t nearly as impressive last year as they’d been during his debut campaign. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a few points worse than the respective league averages. Among the 129 hurlers with 100+ frames, Keller placed 121st in swinging strikes (8.2%).

Keller’s fastball velocity has ticked down a bit since his prospect peak, but a 93.9 MPH average fastball is still more than sufficient. Arguably more concerning is that none of his offspeed pitches was particularly effective. Only his slider was in the realm of average in terms of generating whiffs, and each of his slider, curve and changeup were hit hard. Finding a consistently reliable secondary pitch figures to be a focus for Keller and pitching coach Oscar Marin. If he doesn’t show promise in that regard, the front office could be faced with a tough decision. Keller’s on track to reach arbitration eligibility next offseason, and he could be a non-tender candidate if he posts another season like his 2021 campaign.

The urgency might be even greater for Wilson. While he’s not set to reach arbitration until after the 2023 season (unless the union succeeds in its efforts to expand eligibility for players in the 2-3 year service bucket during CBA talks), Wilson is facing roster pressure of a different sort. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Pirates would need to make him available to the rest of the league if they decide to bump him off the active roster.

An overslot fourth-round selection out of high school by the Braves in 2016, Wilson posted absurd numbers in the low minors over his first two years in pro ball. By 2018, the North Carolina native was traversing four levels. He began that season in High-A but pitched his way to the majors by August. Wilson only made three MLB appearances down the stretch, but that he was in the big leagues by age 20 was itself a remarkable accomplishment.

Wilson headed into 2019 as a consensus top 100 prospect, albeit at the back half of most lists. While he wasn’t viewed as a future top-of-the-rotation arm, most expected Wilson could cement himself within the Atlanta rotation in short order. He spent the bulk of 2019 in Triple-A, though, and he was shuttled between MLB and the alternate training site throughout 2020. Wilson started only six big league games between those two years.

Last year, Wilson got his first extended MLB opportunity. He made eight starts apiece with the Braves and Pirates, who acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Richard Rodríguez swap. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success at either stop. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 5.35 ERA across 74 innings.

Wilson showed strong control (6.8% walk rate) but struggled with home runs and only fanned 14.3% of opponents on a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate. Wilson, like Keller, suffered from an inability to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary pitch. He used his fastball nearly as much as any starter around the league, likely playing a part in both his lack of whiffs and home run issues.

For both Keller and Wilson, the 2022 campaign looks likely to be a key developmental season. Wilson will need to pitch well enough to stick on the active roster; Keller can be sent back to the minors, but he’s likely to be in his final pre-arbitration year. As they rebuild, the Pirates can afford to give the former top prospects another opportunity. Yet if Keller and/or Wilson are to establish themselves as rotation cogs, as many anticipated they would a few years ago, they’ll have to find more success against big league hitters than they have in recent seasons.

Pirates Option Mitch Keller, Place Trevor Cahill On 10-Day Injured List

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Mitch Keller has been optioned to Triple-A, per Kevin Gorman of the Tribune-Review (via Twitter). Trevor Cahill has also been placed on the injured list with a left calf injury.

This is a disappointing, if potentially short-term development for the Pirates’ young right-hander. Keller is still just 25-years-old, but he’s had a rough go of it on the hill in 2021. In 12 starts, Keller has been tagged for a 7.04 ERA across 47 1/3 innings. A 4.95 FIP and .355 BABIP points to some bad luck for Keller this season. He has a 22.4 percent strikeout rate and 12.7 percent walk rate, and while both numbers are below-average, they do represent an improvement over his 2020 output.

Per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, manager Derek Shelton said, “Mitch Keller is going to be a good major league pitcher. When young players, young pitchers have struggles, it’s our job to come up with a program and a plan to help them get back to this level and be successful at this level. That’s what we’re doing with Mitch.”

Cahill has similarly been dealt some hard luck as the veteran has posted a 6.57 ERA, but just 4.04 FIP across 37 innings. In the short term, Wil Crowe will step into Cahill’s spot in the rotation. The former Nationals’ farmhand has eight appearances on the season (seven starts) with a 7.26 ERA/6.12 FIP across 31 innings.

Geoff Hartlieb has also been recalled, notes John Dreker of Piratesbaseball.com. The 27-year-old has just one appearance this season, though he posted a 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work last season.

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