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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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On a relatively slow post-holiday Saturday morning, let’s round up the original work posted by the MLBTR staff this week…

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

On the heels of their second straight NL East-winning campaign, the Braves have gotten off to an aggressive start this offseason. General manager Alex Anthopoulos, who’s trying to build an Atlanta team capable of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2001, has doled out an array of guaranteed contracts in the early stages of the winter. But the club’s still in danger of losing one of its top performers from 2019, free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Braves’ bullpen was unreliable during the season, which is why Anthopoulos started making over the unit in the summer. He swung pre-deadline trades for Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and setup man Chris Martin, who will return as key members of the group in 2020. Martin had been in line to leave, but the Braves instead brought back the nomadic 33-year-old right-hander on a two-year, $14MM contract a couple weeks ago. Likewise, they re-signed righty Darren O’Day this month, preventing his exit with a $2.75MM guarantee. Originally acquired from the Orioles before the 2018 deadline, hamstring and forearm injuries stopped the 37-year-old O’Day from pitching for the Braves until this September. But when O’Day finally retook the mound, he looked like the steady reliever he has been throughout his long career.

While the Martin and O’Day re-signings are hard to argue with, no move the Braves have made thus far should help more than the splashy addition of Will Smith. Once Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, the left-handed Smith, 30, became the undisputed premier reliever in this class. Previously with the Giants, Smith earned his first All-Star nod in 2019, during which he fired 65 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball, posted 13.22 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 and racked up 34 saves in 38 attempts.

As a result of his brilliant final season in San Francisco, MLBTR forecast a three-year, $42MM at the outset of free agency. The Braves, to their credit, paid a little less than that. They reeled in the Georgia-born Smith for $40MM over three years, though it seems they plan is to use him as a setup man to his former Giants teammate Melancon. Regardless, with the two of them, Greene, Martin and O’Day among its best late-game choices, Atlanta has remade its relief corps dating back to the summer. The Braves’ bullpen, although not particularly young, now looks like a strength.

While the bullpen has been Anthopoulos’ primary focus to this point, he has also overseen several moves on the position player side. First of all, outfielder Nick Markakis and catcher Tyler Flowers are back. The Braves bought out both players’ options for $2MM after the season, only to re-up them for guarantees of $4MM. The club still has to pay the pair $6MM apiece, but they’ll only count for $4MM in salary toward next year’s payroll. Whether that will actually matter remains to be seen, as the Braves aren’t typically a team that has to fear the luxury tax.

The lefty-swinging Markakis seems likely to platoon with the righty-hitting Adam Duvall in one of the outfield corners in 2020, continuing to bridge the gap toward promotions for high-end prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. In the meantime, Markakis, Duvall, potential starter Ender Inciarte (if he’s not traded) and Austin Riley don’t make for the most confidence-inspiring quartet, though superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is obviously well-equipped to keep serving as the rising tide that lifts all boats in the outfield.

Behind the plate, Flowers remained a decent option last season, once again combining adequate offense (relative to his position) with elite pitch-framing skills. He teamed with Brian McCann and Francisco Cervelli then, but the former retired after a stellar career and the latter is a free agent. With that in mind, the Braves needed a new partner for Flowers. They got one in Travis d’Arnaud, whom they signed to a two-year, $16MM deal last week.

A former Blue Jay, d’Arnaud is now reunited with Anthopoulos, Toronto’s ex-GM. It was Anthopoulos who traded d’Arnaud out of Canada, landing then-star knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in a 2012 blockbuster with the Mets. D’Arnaud was an elite prospect at that point, but he wound up enduring a somewhat disappointing Mets tenure that was consistently marred by injuries. The Mets finally had enough of d’Arnaud early last season, designating him for assignment, but he has enjoyed a career renaissance since. The 30-year-old rebuilt his stock as a Ray over the past several months, thus turning himself into either the second- or third-best catcher on the open market. MLBTR projected a two-year, $14MM deal, so his Braves payday hardly came as a surprise.

Every pact Atlanta has handed out so far looks reasonable, but it’s still worth wondering how much more ownership is willing to spend. Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei has said the team still plans to “spend some money,” but it’s just about anyone’s guess what that means. The Braves began last season with a payroll in the $115MM range and have never spent more than $122MM-plus on a season-opening roster, per Cot’s. Now, according to the math of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs, they already have about $127MM in commitments for next year. There’s room to cut some of that out via non-tenders and trades (Inciarte?), but those moves wouldn’t free up a windfall of cash.

While it’s unclear how much more money Atlanta’s willing to put into its roster, it’s inarguable the club remains in need of upgrades. Third base, such a strength a season ago, is now a massive question mark with Donaldson unsigned. The Braves and Donaldson have expressed a desire to stay together on multiple occasions. Problem is that his next contract could be fairly exorbitant (MLBTR projects $75MM over three years), and several other teams have been eyeing him since free agency commenced. No doubt, Donaldson’s the No. 2 third baseman on the market, trailing only Anthony Rendon. But if the Braves don’t want to pay Donaldson, they can probably forget about splurging on Rendon for $200-some mill. That could point them to Mike Moustakas, whom they’ve showed interest in and whose next deal should come in around $20MM. Moustakas is no Donaldson or Rendon, but he’d make for a nice stopgap and allow Riley to either continue in the outfield or head to Triple-A for further seasoning. Moose would also be an easy upgrade over Johan Camargo, who’s coming off a season in which he recorded disastrous numbers.

Aside from third, the Braves’ rotation sticks out as a sore spot, especially after the club bought out innings eater Julio Teheran and saw Dallas Keuchel hit free agency. Supreme young building block Mike Soroka’s back, as are Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. The rest of the group is decidedly less proven, with Sean Newcomb potentially returning to a starting role after a year spent mostly as a reliever. Kyle Wright’s a former top 40 prospect who could also factor in, but his MLB experience is limited (and his brief action in the majors hasn’t gone well). Meanwhile, promising prospects Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson have logged few to no innings above the minors.

So now what? Well, there are several avenues the Braves could explore. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg look like pipe dreams, but the rest of this starting class appears far more realistic. Former Giant Madison Bumgarner is reportedly high atop the Braves’ wish list, though he won’t come cheap. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels and Keuchel are all poised to cash in to varying extents.

If the Braves don’t win the bidding for any starters near the head of the class, they could turn to the trade market, where they’d perhaps be able to take advantage of their impressive farm system to acquire proven, affordable, controllable talent. The Braves had interest in Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd during the summer. Boyd wound up staying put, but he once again sticks out as one of the most obvious trade candidates in the game. Aside from Boyd, the D-backs’ Robbie Ray, the Pirates’ Chris Archer, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, the Indians’ Corey Kluber and the Marlins’ Caleb Smith represent starters who made it to the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams just put together.

In terms of ideas that are of the pie-in-the-sky variety, would the Braves dare try to assemble a package for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? Picking up either could mean parting with stud prospects and incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson, but either would be the type of acquisition who would place the Braves near the top of the league’s list of World Series contenders entering 2020. Of course, both players are only under control for two more years – the same amount of time as Braves franchise first baseman and extension candidate Freddie Freeman. Would the team be able to extend both? That’s one of several reasons it’s worth wondering whether the Braves would be interested in this sort of trade. Nevertheless, it’s at least worth bringing up as a possibility.

The offseason’s only a few weeks old, but Anthopoulos has already crammed an entire winter’s worth of action into the month of November. With third base seemingly open and at least one rotation spot potentially up for grabs, you can bet the GM isn’t done yet.

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

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We’ve seen some early free agent action, but with the exception of the recent deal between Milwaukee and San Diego, the trade market has been quiet to this point of the offseason. It’s an opportune time to canvass rosters around the game to find the most intriguing possible candidates to be swapped. The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood. In part due to the wide-open nature of the winter market, as opposed to the trade deadline, we’ll rank a relatively smaller number of players and then provide a list of some (but not all!) other notable possibilities.

In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.

With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s our list:

1. Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays: High-end rental relievers can hold quite a bit of appeal on the trade market. Though he has had some hiccups over the years, Giles was lights-out last year in Toronto and remains youthful and fairly affordable ($8.4MM projected). While the Jays are hoping to begin making some winning strides, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be better off overall if they keep Giles for half of his final season of control before striking a deal.

2. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates: Connect the dots: Lots of teams would love to add a quality veteran center fielder. There aren’t many available in free agency. The Pirates are coming off of a calamitous 2019 season and have lost some of their highest-upside players. Marte is still quite good and has two reasonably affordable seasons of control remaining. New GM Ben Cherington has quite a few tough decisions to make, but aggressively shopping Marte — and completing the best-available deal, unless there’s a surprising paucity of trade interest — seems like a fairly straightforward proposition.

3. Omar Narvaez, C, Mariners: Narvaez’s glovework isn’t well regarded, but he’s been one of baseball’s better-hitting catchers for the past two seasons (and was a low-power OBP machine even before that). Few catchers can match his offensive skill set, and despite the shaky defensive skills, that bat carries value. The “reimagining” Mariners, however, are reportedly not only listening to offers on Narvaez but somewhat motivated to move him. He’s controlled another three seasons, but with Tom Murphy controlled longer and prospect Cal Raleigh looming in the upper minors, ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto is apparently intent on capitalizing on that team control.

4. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox: Again, the demand up the middle is key here. Couple that with the Boston org’s preference to duck below the luxury line, and Bradley’s $11MM projected salary seems likely to end up on someone else’s books. He has a three-year run of below-average hitting and isn’t laden with value as a rental piece at that price tag, but he’d check some key boxes for quite a few teams.

5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: Yates was arguably baseball’s best reliever in 2019. He’s cheaper than Giles at a projected $6.5MM. But it seems a bit easier to imagine the San Diego organization deciding to hold onto him given that club’s mandate to begin winning now. It’s possible Yates will be held in hopes of helping to spur a big season, with the backstop of a mid-summer trade. Or he could be an extension target. There’s lots of value here, but the likelihood of a deal is tough to pin down.

6. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers: Many teams will be intrigued by Boyd’s strikeout-capable arm, despite his late struggles. And the Detroit organization should be motivated to sell. The club has held out for a big return to this point, and understandably so. But perhaps it’ll give a little if trade partners do the same. And with some big dollar signs floating around for the top pitchers on the open market, Boyd’s lower-cost profile suddenly starts to look pretty appealing. Even if he can’t tap into the ceiling he showed glimpses of in 2019, Boyd is a quality, durable hurler with good value to a contending team.

7. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks: It’s much the same situation as with Yates … man, it would sure hurt to trade a player like this in a season in which you wish to contend. But these NL West clubs are surely realistic about the odds of catching the Dodgers as the rosters are currently arrayed. So they have to contemplate swaps that boost the long-term outlook, even if it means something less than a full-throated attempt at winning right now. The Snakes have quite a few pitching possibilities to step in if they find a deal they like on the talented southpaw, though surely the club will not be overly anxious to get a deal done if the offers aren’t really significant.

8-9. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets & Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees: Here we have a couple of recent top prospects entering their age-25 seasons after hitting well against MLB pitching in 1/3-season samples. Neither really fits on their current New York roster. (CHALLENGE TRADE?!?!) There’s no room at first base for the Mets owing to the presence of Peter Alonso. Throwing Smith in the outfield is sub-optimal since he’s not a good defender and the team already has two quality, left-handed-hitting options in Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Over in the Bronx, Frazier doesn’t seem like the most compelling fit with two big righty hitting corner outfield bats (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton) and a variety of other righty swinging possibilities for DH duties. It’s easier to see Frazier as part of the mix if the Yanks instead trade Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar.

10. Chris Archer, SP, Pirates: We don’t need to revisit the full Archer backstory, but suffice to say he’s a guy who has shown real ability but struggled increasingly to get the job done. It would hurt to sell low on Archer given the exceedingly painful acquisition cost, but the new front office regime has to look forward. There’s certainly an argument for holding him in hopes that a strong first half will boost the trade value, but it may also be a situation where the Bucs decide to get what they can when they can. Plenty of teams would jump at the chance to employ Archer for $9MM — just think what that gets you in free agency — particularly with a $11MM club option (which comes with a cheap $250K buyout) providing additional upside. Archer’s strikeout rate jumped once he finally ditched the two-seamer the Pirates wanted him to throw, and his velocity is still well above average, although he remained susceptible to the long ball.

11. Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles: There’s evidently some momentum towards a deal, so the likelihood of a swap seems relatively high in this case. Bundy has not reached the ceiling that some once believed he’d possess and the results haven’t been there of late. But he still knows how to get strikeouts and has actually been rather durable of late. Bundy’s projected $5.7MM arb tab isn’t a bargain, but is also quite manageable. It’s important that he’s controllable for another campaign. The O’s will be looking to deal with a team that needs a back-end starter and has some ideas for getting Bundy locked in.

12. Blake Treinen, RP, Athletics: Arguably the best reliever in the game in 2018, Treinen lost his grip on the closer’s role in Oakland this past season and may have pitched himself out of the organization. Treinen’s projected $7.8MM salary is a rather substantial dice roll for the perennially low-payroll Athletics to take. The velocity on the 31-year-old’s overpowering sinker dropped by a bit more than a mile per hour, and he saw his strikeout, walk, home-run and ground-ball rates all go in the wrong direction. That said, Treinen still whiffed more than a batter per inning with a respectable 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate and a ridiculous 37.9 percent opponents’ chase rate. A reliever with this type of upside at a projected $7.8MM price point is a gamble that clubs with deeper pockets should be happy to take. It’s possible to imagine a non-tender, but a trade feels likelier.

13. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates: Kela was part of a problematic clubhouse situation that can’t continue. He’s an affordable ($3.4MM projected) rental reliever who seems to have some upside. Teams may want a discount to account for Kela’s less-than-stellar reputation, but the Bucs may prefer to give it so that they can clear some salary, get a fresh start, and pick up some prospects.

14. Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates: It’s much the same here, except that the Bucs probably have greater reason to consider hanging onto Bell. For one thing, he’s only 27 years of age and is in his first season of arbitration eligibility ($5.9MM projection), so it’s possible to imagine him starring on a winning Pittsburgh club. For another, his monster early showing in 2019 ended in a somewhat tepid manner, so there’s an argument for allowing Bell some more time to boost his trade value. And then there’s the value of keeping a popular player around to boost fan interest and maintain some hope. (You might even squint and see an extension possibility, but good luck getting Scott Boras to bite.) But it’s actually rather a good time to be shopping a first baseman, all things considered. The Bucs can’t rule out a move if the right offer comes along.

15-16. Mychal Givens, RP, Orioles & Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers: Have you looked recently at the state of the relief market? It isn’t exactly laden with guys that can generate a dozen strikeouts per nine. Givens and Jimenez each have that kind of swing-and-miss prowess. They each also coughed up nearly two dingers per nine innings — making them the most-2019 relievers in baseball? — and ended the year with substandard earned run averages. You can be sure there are multiple contending teams thinking about how to keep the Ks and reduce the long balls if they’re able to land one of these pitchers. Givens is more established, less youthful (29 vs 24), and costlier ($3.2MM arb projection vs pre-arb) than is Jimenez.

17. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: The 33-year-old was highly effective in 2018 and struggled before a season-ending injury in 2019. Fortunately, the forearm fracture was a freak occurrence rather than a usage-based injury. But the outlook is unclear. His $17.5MM salary and remaining $18MM club option could be absolute bargains, or Kluber may be a shell of his former self. Another organization may be better situated to take on this risk/reward profile.

18. Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: Texas has a glut of left-handed-hitting outfield options with Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Joey Gallo and Shin-Soo Choo, though the latter is more of a DH candidate than an outfielder. Mazara only has two seasons of club control remaining, but he’s a 24-year-old former top prospect with some power who could pique the interest of other clubs. For teams who don’t want to pay a premium for the market’s top free agents, Mazara could be a reasonably priced alternative with yet-untapped upside.

19. Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins: Perhaps the Fish intend to hang onto their remaining young rotation pieces after swapping out Zac Gallen over the summer. But that deal also proved the Miami organization is willing to trade from its stock of controllable arms in some scenarios. Smith’s 2019 season had some parallels with that of the aforementioned Boyd, in that he showed intriguing strikeout ability but also succumbed to the long ball and faded down the stretch. Smith is also still a season away from arbitration eligibility, so there’s no rush to move him. (Fellow hurler Sandy Alcantara is a service class behind and even younger, so he seems less likely to be dealt.) But that could also make this an optimal time to swap Smith out for bigger value. The opportunity to generate bidding might increase if the aforementioned southpaws on this list end up staying put.

20-22. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox; Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs; Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: What do you do when you’re a contending team with multiple remaining seasons of control over one of the best young players in baseball? Trade him, of course! That’s what many pundits would have us believe is actually possible, anyway. It’s somewhat easier to imagine in the case of Betts, since he’s so expensive ($27.7MM projection) and just one year from the open market. Then again, the Boston organization has some of the deepest pockets in the game and shouldn’t rule out a return to glory in 2020. It’d be awfully tough to justify moving Mookie unless new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom pulls off a real stunner. Viewed another way, Lindor seems likeliest to go. Prior extension talks have failed and he’s already spendy ($16.7MM) for the low-budget Indians. But doesn’t that organization simply need to try to capitalize on the still-open window while it has such a young star (among others)? As for Bryant … well, I’ll admit I don’t quite understand why his name has circulated the rumor mill. There are two years to go before free agency and he’s expensive ($18.5MM projected) but not onerous for the North Siders. It’s not likely he’ll ink an extension, but … shouldn’t they just cross that bridge when they come to it? The whole premise of the rebuild was to find players just like this and ride them to multiple World Series rings. There’s time yet to make good on that.

23. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Cubs ownership didn’t give Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer much latitude to spend last winter, and while that may not be the case this season, there’s also plenty of talk about some large-scale changes after another disheartening finish and a playoff miss. Contreras doesn’t rate as a quality defender behind the plate and is projected to earn a $4.5MM salary in 2020. If the Cubs feel that the defensive upgrade from Contreras to Victor Caratini is enough to offset the likely discrepancy between their offensive performances, there’s reason to look to move Contreras. Doing so would also be a means of acquiring young, controllable pitching — something the organization lacks — while freeing up some cash to perhaps add a bargain reliever or starter late in the winter.

24. Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals: The contract that the K.C. org gave Kennedy just hasn’t worked out as hoped. But there’s a chance to salvage something: a good portion of the $16.5MM still owed and perhaps some young talent to boot. The Braves took on Mark Melancon’s $14MM annual salary over the summer. Kennedy was just as impressive in 2019, when he threw 63 1/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with 10.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. And that came despite the fact that opposing hitters managed a .343 BABIP and produced a .291 wOBA that outstripped their .277 xwOBA. In other words, he may actually have been a bit unlucky. Kennedy’s stuff played way up in a relief role, as he pumped 95 mph heat and exhibited similar velo increases with his other offerings.

25. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies: This may just be a pet theory, but it seems that shipping out Blackmon represents the cleanest, most-achievable, least-painful way for the Rockies to relieve their payroll crunch. The 33-year-old has been a strong performer at the plate for four-straight seasons now and is fresh off of a .314/.364/.576 campaign. Everyone else with a big salary in Colorado is either a star still in his twenties or a veteran who has underperformed his contract. Blackmon’s deal includes $21MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive player options (at $21MM and then at a floating price based upon plate appearances). It’s a big commitment. And Blackmon’s declining athleticism — he was once a 75th-percentile runner and is now in the bottom half of baseball in sprint speed — and messy defensive grades provide some cause for concern. But much like Zack Greinke, who was moved for significant young talent by the division-rival D-Backs, the contract could hold real appeal to teams surveying a rather tepid outfield market.

Others To Consider

Premium targets: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox; Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians; Jon Gray, SP, Rockies; Trevor Story, SS, Rockies; Brad Hand, RP, Indians; Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners; Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles; J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox; Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Red Sox; Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs; Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics

High-end targets whose GMs have declared unavailable: Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has plainly stated (on multiple occasions) that he has no intention of trading Noah Syndergaard, and Royals GM Dayton Moore recently reiterated that the club has made an “advance decision” not to trade second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield (video link). Both players will probably hear their names surface on the rumor mill all the same, but it’s notable to have seen such definitive, public declarations.

Younger veterans with multi-year control: Johan Camargo, INF, Braves; J.D. Davis, INF/OF, Mets; Niko Goodrum, INF/OF, Tigers; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies; Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves; Manuel Margot, OF, Padres; Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres; Addison Russell, INF, Cubs; Albert Almora Jr., OF, Cubs; Domingo Santana, OF/DH, Mariners; Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners; Michael A. Taylor, OF, Nationals; Jose Urena, SP/RP, Marlins

Rental targets: Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies; Jake Marisnick, OF, Astros; James McCann, C, White Sox; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers; Kevin Pillar, CF, Giants; Jurickson Profar, 2B, Athletics; Josh Reddick, OF, Astros; Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants; Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians

Veterans on expensive, multi-year contracts: Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants; Matt Carpenter, 3B/1B, Cardinals; Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants; Wade Davis, RP, Rockies; Ian Desmond, OF/IF, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Dee Gordon, 2B, Mariners; Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants; Jake McGee, RP, Rockies; Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies; Wil Myers, OF, Padres; David Price, SP, Red Sox

2019 Non-Tender Candidates

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At the start of the offseason, 277 players were on 40-man rosters and eligible for arbitration. That number has been pared back substantially as all 30 teams have worked to trim the fringes of their rosters. For those who remain, the non-tender deadline is this coming Monday at 8pm ET. By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a (non-guaranteed) contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.

It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded in the next few days rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers. Orioles second baseman Jonathan Villar, for instance, is currently on outright waivers and may land with another team. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.

Onto the list, with salary projections (included in parentheses below) coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Position Players

Tim Beckham, INF, Mariners ($3MM — Beckham still has 32 games remaining on an 80-game PED suspension)
C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins ($7.7MM)
Charlie Culberson, INF/OF, Braves ($1.8MM)
Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, C, Pirates ($1.4MM)
Wilmer Difo, INF, Nationals ($1.2MM)
Brandon Drury, INF/OF, Blue Jays ($2.5MM)
Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies ($5.7MM)
Erik Gonzalez, INF, Pirates ($800K)
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies ($11.8MM)
Caleb Joseph, C, D-backs ($1.2MM)
Jake Lamb, 1B/3B, D-backs ($5MM)
Luke Maile, C, Blue Jays ($800K)
Sandy Leon, C, Red Sox ($2.8MM)
John Ryan Murphy, C, Braves ($1.2MM)
Jose Peraza, INF, Reds ($3.6MM)
Josh Phegley, C, Athletics ($2.2MM)
Chad Pinder, INF/OF, Athletics ($1.8MM)
Kevin Pillar, CF, Giants ($9.7MM)
Jurickson Profar, INF, Athletics ($5.8MM)
Joey Rickard, OF, Giants ($1.1MM)
Addison Russell, 2B/SS, Cubs ($5.1MM)
Tyler Saladino, 2B/SS, Brewers ($1MM)
Domingo Santana, OF/DH, Mariners ($4.4MM)
Travis Shaw, 3B/1B, Brewers ($4.7MM)
Steven Souza Jr., OF, D-backs ($4.125MM)
Tony Wolters, C, Rockies ($2MM)

Starters

Tyler Anderson, LHP, Giants ($2.625MM)
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Reds ($10.6MM)
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Astros ($5.6MM — Sanchez is recovering from shoulder surgery that’ll sideline him into 2020)
Jose Urena, RHP, Marlins ($4MM)

Relievers

Scott Alexander, LHP, Dodgers ($1MM)
Adam Conley, LHP, Marlins ($1.6MM)
Chris Devenski, RHP, Astros ($2MM)
Yimi Garcia, RHP, Dodgers ($1.1MM)
Javy Guerra, RHP, Nationals ($1.3MM)
Koda Glover, RHP, Nationals ($700K)
Derek Law, RHP, Blue Jays ($1.3M)
Chaz Roe, RHP, Rays ($2.2MM)
Hunter Strickland, RHP, Nationals ($1.9MM)
Blake Treinen, RHP, Athletics ($7.8MM)

Taking Stock Of The Catching Market

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The top two catching options on the open market are gone, with the White Sox landing Yasmani Grandal and the Braves securing the services of Travis d’Arnaud. Some others, including Stephen Vogt (Diamondbacks), Tyler Flowers (Braves), and Dustin Garneau (Astros) are also accounted for. But our top 50 free agent list still has a few backstops on it. There are quite a few other veterans out there as well, along with some notable trade candidates.

As we did recently for relievers, let’s canvas the market to see what’s left for those teams with a need behind the dish:

We’ll start at the top. What to make of the rumors that the Cubs are willing to discuss some of their top stars in trades? It’s hard to imagine how the team would improve by dealing away Willson Contreras, even if he hasn’t yet perfected pitch-framing, but it seems there’s a belief that Victor Caratini could be paired with a veteran and perform well in an expanded role. Contreras would presumably only be cashed in if the return is not only compelling from a talent/value perspective, but built around near-term contributors rather than far-away prospects. He’s projected to earn $4.5MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

It’ll be interesting to see how that situation plays out. Whether or not a deal is completed, there’ll surely be a good number of teams compiling trade packages to make a run at Contreras. Might those that miss turn their sights elsewhere? And might the Yankees actually consider moving on from Gary Sanchez after another frustrating defensive season? That’s a much more speculative possibility, but it probably can’t be ruled out entirely.

The next tier down includes some very solid options — several of whom have deservedly held down semi-regular playing time. Omar Narvaez has emerged as a trade candidate for the Mariners. He possesses rare hitting ability for a backstop but comes with some defensive questions. The left-handed hitter is a candidate to handle the large side of a platoon.

Another interesting possibility is Jorge Alfaro of the Marlins. The Miami club may prefer to keep him in hopes that he can tap into some upside, and undoubtedly won’t sell low, but he’d also represent a solid target for clubs looking for more offensive punch. He could be seen as a semi-regular piece right out of the chutes who might yet develop into an everyday type.

Teams looking for reliability on the open market have a few clear options remaining. Southpaw swinging free agent Jason Castro is a solid hitter and strong framer. Fellow open market target Robinson Chirinos has a quality stick and has been trusted to play in over a hundred games in each of the past two season. Both are probably best utilized in a 50/50 timeshare but could be tasked with more.

There are some other, somewhat more speculative trade candidates of note to consider. The White Sox obviously aren’t convinced that James McCann can repeat his strong offensive season, but he’d hold appeal elsewhere as a cost-efficient candidate who has now established a new ceiling at the plate. The Padres’ Austin Hedges and Reds’ Tucker Barnhart haven’t really come around fully with the bat but are considered high-quality defenders. Both could be available if their teams make desired upgrades.

Clubs looking for younger, affordable, controllable backstops have a few other players to consider as well. We’ve heard some chatter that the Blue Jays are willing to discuss Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire in trades; presumably, the Orioles would listen to interest in Pedro Severino or Chance Sisco. After falling out of favor in Los Angeles, Austin Barnes is probably available; he’s not especially youthful but is only estimated to command $1.3MM in arbitration and is still affordable, controllable, and versatile.

Turning back to the open market, there’s a strong remaining mix of targets — many of whom have seen quite a lot of MLB action in recent seasons. Francisco Cervelli and Yan Gomes are bounceback candidates. Martin Maldonado is a defensive specialist. Russell Martin or Jonathan Lucroy could supplement and mentor a younger backstop. Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, and Welington Castillo have had ups and downs but possess more offensive capabilities than most receivers. And Austin Romine has quietly turned in a pair of strong seasons, slashing .262/.302/.428 over his past 505 plate appearances. As ever, there’s a long list of other depth candidates … with H-named backstops featuring prominently among them (Chris Herrmann, John Hicks, Bryan Holaday, Nick Hundley).

MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray?

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The 2019 campaign did not go according to plan for the Rockies, who entered it with playoff aspirations after earning postseason bids in each of the previous two years. The team ended up as one of the most disappointing clubs of the season, though, as it stumbled to a dismal 71-91 record and a fourth-place finish in the National League West.

Perhaps the Rockies will return to the game’s upper echelon next year, but they remain stuck in a division that the mighty Dodgers are likely to own yet again in 2020. Furthermore, it seems the Rox will have to climb out of the basement without any major outside improvements this offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has indicated the Rockies, who are saddled by a few bad contracts (Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and Bryan Shaw), don’t have the payroll flexibility to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.

In light of Monfort’s comments, MLBTR’s TC Zencka noted while previewing the Rockies’ offseason that their outlook for 2020 doesn’t look particularly hopeful. With that in mind, one wouldn’t be out of line to suggest Colorado should consider trading a couple of its top contributors whose team control is running out. Specifically, there’s shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray – two players who are only arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. Story is projected to earn $11.5MM next season, while Gray should rake in around $5.6MM. Both salaries are bargains relative to what Story and Gray bring to the table, which is arguably all the more reason for the Rockies to listen to offers for the pair.

The 27-year-old Story is fresh off a two-season run in which he was unquestionably an elite shortstop, as he racked up 10.9 fWAR, slashed .293/.355/.561 with 72 home runs and 50 stolen bases across 1,312 plate appearances, and totaled 18 Defensive Runs Saved. Just about any team would sign up for that all-around production, and if you’re a club in need of a shortstop, there’s not much out there in free agency other than Didi Gregorius (who’s coming off a poor season). That’s yet another reason Story and his affordable two years of control would bring back a haul in a trade, one that could help the Rockies turn around a subpar farm system.

Although Story would generate widespread interest on the trade market, general manager Jeff Bridich and the Rockies don’t seem inclined to part with him, instead clinging to the hope that they’ll be able to extend him. Maybe a long-term pact for Story looks unlikely, though the Rox did manage to lock up third baseman Nolan Arenado last February – less than a year before he was slated to reach free agency – with a seven-year, $234MM extension. Keeping Story under wraps won’t cost that much, but the Arenado deal showed they’re willing to go all-out to keep premier talent on board.

As with Story, the Rockies appear as if they’ll retain Gray, even though the hard-throwing 28-year-old has garnered trade interest early this offseason. Gray wouldn’t fetch the return that Story would in a trade, but his aforementioned affordable salary and history of solid production are clearly appealing. Teams that may not necessarily want to splurge on the best free-agent starters (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among others) could turn their focus to Gray if the Rockies are open to giving him up. But it doesn’t look as if that’s the case for Colorado, which, going forward, will apparently.hope for bounce-back seasons from its players who were letdowns in 2019 and attempt to return to relevance next year.

The question is: Should the Rockies essentially wave the white flag already on 2020 and trade Story, Gray or both standouts? With team control waning for each player, there’s a legitimate case that Colorado should go in another direction and opt for a rebuild.

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Rockies do with Story, Gray?
Trade both 40.53% (2,910 votes)
Keep both 23.44% (1,683 votes)
Trade Gray if they can't extend him 19.85% (1,425 votes)
Trade Story if they can't extend him 16.18% (1,162 votes)
Total Votes: 7,180

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Having completed a three-season rebuilding period, the White Sox must make significant additions and field a competitive team in 2020.  With the Yasmani Grandal signing, they’ve already got a strong early start.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $73MM through 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $50MM through 2022.
  • Kelvin Herrera, RP: $9.5MM through 2020.  Includes club option for 2021.
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $37MM through 2024.  Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $21.75MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

In the three weeks since the World Series ended, the White Sox have already made several notable offseason moves.  The first was to ship catcher Welington Castillo to the Rangers, giving up $250K in international bonus pool space as a way of saving $500K in real money in the form of Castillo’s buyout.  As James Fegan of The Athletic wrote, the question is “why a seemingly paltry amount of the major-league payroll is being prioritized over a significant portion of the international bonus pool,” as this is not the first time the White Sox have done so.  To hear White Sox Senior Vice President/General Manager Rick Hahn tell it, the team’s international staff did not have any further signings they wanted to make, so he then set out to exchange the club’s bonus pool space for some benefit.  The shedding of international bonus pool space invited skepticism in some corners, including from Jim Margalus of Sox Machine.

As this outlook was in progress, the White Sox signed the #7 free agent on the market, catcher Yasmani Grandal, to a four-year, $73MM deal.  The contract surpasses Abreu for the largest in franchise history, a major commitment to a player who fits the team like a glove.  The Sox have added perhaps the best hitter and pitch framer among all MLB catchers.  And unlike last year’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado, Hahn and company proved that they actually are willing and able to win the bidding on a top free agent.  While he’s not a $300MM player, Grandal offers a huge boost behind the plate over incumbent James McCann, perhaps on the order of four additional wins in 2020.  McCann could stay on as a somewhat overqualified backup for Grandal (he did make the All-Star team this year), but he becomes a pretty clear trade candidate, especially given Zack Collins’ bond with Grandal.

Earlier this month the White Sox made the fairly reasonable decision to give Jose Abreu a qualifying offer, which served the dual purpose of cementing their longstanding interest in retaining him, and of creating a drag on the idea of another team signing him.  The widely expected multiyear agreement didn’t happen by the November 14th deadline for Abreu, so the player chose to accept the strong $17.8MM salary on a one-year deal for 2020.  At that point first base was filled for 2020, and the White Sox didn’t have to commit beyond Abreu’s age-33 season.  Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf can be loyal to a fault, however, and the team chose to overwrite that one-year deal with a three-year, $50MM pact that surely had much to do with Abreu’s clubhouse presence as his production at the plate.  Chalk this one up as a win for Abreu, who was unlikely to find this level of a contract on the open market.  Should White Sox fans complain?  Only to the extent that Abreu’s unnecessary new deal prevents them from upgrading the rest of the roster, which doesn’t seem likely at least this offseason.

One other notable move happened this week, with the club removing second baseman Yolmer Sanchez from the 40-man roster.  Sanchez seemed unlikely to make it past Monday’s non-tender deadline anyway, but now the path is clear for prospect Nick Madrigal.

Due to the team committing over $123MM before Thanksgiving, this is beginning to read more like an offseason review than an outlook.  However, there’s plenty of speculation left to do.  One clear remaining area of upgrade for the White Sox is right field.  While there’s a slight preference for left-handed bats, perhaps the addition of a switch-hitter like Grandal reduces that.  Options in free agency include Nicholas Castellanos, Kole Calhoun, and Yasiel Puig.  Both Marcell Ozuna and Eloy Jimenez seem limited to left field, making Ozuna a difficult fit.  Nor have Corey Dickerson or Brett Gardner played much right field.  On the trade market, one consideration is Mookie Betts, a potentially huge one-year rental if Hahn could pry him loose from the Red Sox.  Perhaps of equal or greater acquisition cost would be the Mariners’ Mitch Haniger, who is under control for three more seasons.  The trade market could also offer Josh Reddick, Nomar Mazara, Stephen Piscotty, and Hunter Renfroe, none of whom would be considered a clear upgrade.

The Sox are also wide open at designated hitter, and a few interesting options abound if the team is willing to use the spot mostly for one player.  Chicago was considered the speculative favorite for J.D. Martinez if he’d chosen to opt out, with the thinking that the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily have minded gaining relief from Martinez’s contract.  If the White Sox indeed like Martinez, I wonder if they’d attempt to take him and his three-year, $62.5MM commitment off Boston’s hands.  One issue could be Martinez’s ability to opt out after the 2020 season, which brings downside risk for the White Sox.  It’s also plausible that the White Sox could attempt to use their financial flexibility to acquire Khris Davis and most of his $33.5MM commitment from Oakland.  A simpler move would be to simply sign a free agent who could be plugged in as a regular DH, such as Edwin Encarnacion or Hunter Pence.

The White Sox will almost certainly add starting pitching this winter, with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez penciled in plus interesting options like Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech.  Even with Jake Odorizzi off the board, the free agent market is flush with options.  Though they’ve never given out a $100MM contract, the White Sox have at least attempted to dole out a $200MM deal, and they could certainly compete on Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg if Reinsdorf so chooses.  They’re also viable suitors for Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, and just about any other free agent.  Signing Grandal early could have a benefit here: the White Sox have signaled they’re not messing around, and presumed “contenders only” names like Bumgarner, Ryu, and Hamels could get on board.  The trade market doesn’t appear overwhelming, but certainly a Matthew Boyd, Chris Archer, or Jon Gray would be attainable for the Sox.  If you want to get a little more fantastical with trade ideas, we can again speculate on financially bailing out the Red Sox, with David Price or even Chris Sale.  The White Sox re-acquiring Sale would be particularly entertaining, but with a $145MM commitment and an elbow injury ending his season in August, it’s the ultimate long shot.

Like most teams, the White Sox could also stand to improve their bullpen.  Colome, Herrera, and Aaron Bummer are guaranteed spots, while Evan Marshall and Jimmy Cordero will surely be in the mix.  It remains to be seen how aggressively the White Sox will address the bullpen given their other needs, though the Braves have already scooped up Will Smith and Chris Martin from the top end of the free agent market.  Plus, the Sox already can expect to pay Colome and Herrera around $19MM for their 2020 efforts.

Even after signing Grandal and Abreu, their projected commitments sit around $80MM.  With so many big-market teams crying poor this winter, the White Sox are in excellent position to add several more impact free agents and make a major push into contention for 2020 and beyond.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A month ago, the Astros came within a game of winning their second World Series in three seasons. Now? They’re the subject of an investigation by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s office and could lose one of the game’s best pitchers to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (contract projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

We’ll get this out of the way up front: while the Astros have plenty of roster needs to address this offseason, the primary storyline right now is the league’s investigation into the electronic sign-stealing accusations brought forth against them, which stem back to the 2017 season. There are potentially severe ramifications for the Houston organization if sufficient evidence arises to prove their guilt, but at this point the extent of those still-theoretical sanctions can’t be known. This outlook will focus purely on the team’s roster and payroll outlook, as there’s no means of determining exactly when, how or even if the Astros will be penalized by the commissioner’s office.

With that out of the way, the biggest needs facing the Astros organization come in the rotation and behind the plate. Houston picked up Zack Greinke in a last-minute trade-deadline blockbuster, but Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley both reached free agency at season’s end. Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado are both free agents, too, leaving 26-year-old Garrett Stubbs as the only catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster. Clearly, that leaves president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and his staff with some work to do.

To what extent is ownership willing to spend to address those needs, though? Owner Jim Crane said in early October that the Astros “prefer not to” cross the $208MM luxury tax barrier, though he cautioned that the team’s postseason showing could influence that decision. A run to Game 7 of the World Series surely put some extra cash in the pipeline, but the strongest comments Crane has made with regard to spending this winter came earlier this month when discussing Cole’s free agency: “We’re going to take a run at it. We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.” A resounding cry of aggression, it was not, but that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The likelihood that Cole has become too large a piece to fit into this puzzle has been apparent for some time now.

The biggest obstacle for the Astros is that even assuming a non-tender of July acquisition Aaron Sanchez, whose 2020 status is up in the air after shoulder surgery, Houston’s payroll will top $200MM in 2020. The exact projections will vary, as the specific number is dependent on arbitration-eligible players and on determining exactly what they owe Greinke. The D-backs are paying a reported $10.33MM of the $35MM owed to Greinke in 2020 and 2021 ($32MM base salary plus a $3MM payment of his pro-rated signing bonus), and $11MM of that yearly sum is deferred to 2022-26.

None of those payroll gymnastics matter for luxury-tax purposes, though, as that calculation is more straightforward and based on the average annual value of the team’s contractual obligations. Between guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections, pre-arbitration players and money set aside for player benefits, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has their current luxury obligations at a whopping $238MM. Non-tendering Sanchez would trim $5.6MM of that, but it’s clear that the team’s offseason level of activity will be heavily dependent on whether Crane and his group can indeed stomach what looks like a potentially notable luxury hit.

Given the team’s cloudy fiscal outlook, it’s perhaps not surprising that Luhnow has already gone on record as stating that right-hander Jose Urquidy will “likely” be in the team’s rotation next year. He’ll be joined by a returning Lance McCullers Jr., and the club has some upper-level depth in Rogelio Armenteros, Cionel Perez, Bryan Abreu and Forrest Whitley. But Whitley’s stock is down after a miserable 2019 season, McCullers is something of a wild card in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and the team traded righties Corban Martin and J.B. Bukauskas to the D-backs in the Greinke swap. At the very least, one veteran stabilizer or would seem to be a prudent addition — even if it’s a low-cost add in the Brett Anderson or Homer Bailey mold. If the Astros want more of an upside play, they could roll the dice on Josh Lindblom, Kwang-hyun Kim or Shun Yamaguchi as they look to jump from the KBO (Lindblom, Kim) and NPB (Yamaguchi) to the Majors.

Behind the plate, a reunion with any number of old friends would be logical: Chirinos, Maldonado and Jason Castro are all available in free agency. The Mariners are reportedly exploring the market for Omar Narvaez, who’s only projected to receive a modest $2.9MM salary in his first year of arbitration. On the pricier side of things, the Cubs could listen to offers for Willson Contreras. Ultimately, whether it’s via trade or free agency, the Astros have to add a catcher or two; Stubbs hit just .240/.332/.397 (79 wRC+) last year in Triple-A while the rest of the league exploded with historic levels of offensive output.

Around the rest of the roster, things look largely set. Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman will comprise the infield, while the outfield has Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker in the mix. Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez will return to DH and could see some occasional reps in left or at first base. It’s a stacked lineup.

There’s a scenario where the Astros stick primarily in house for the starting staff, pick up a cheap catcher and hope their core can stay healthy enough to carry them to yet another AL West championship. They could even look to shed some of Reddick’s remaining $13MM and go with the younger, more affordable Tucker in right field. There’s enough talent there, but relying on McCullers and a pair of young arms to round out the starting staff would leave the team with little depth, especially in the event of an injury to Verlander or Greinke.

Frankly, however, it’s hard to see just how this Astros roster could possibly be constructed to drop below the luxury tax without severely compromising its core. Barring a shocking trade — e.g. Springer, Greinke — there just aren’t many natural means to reducing payroll. As such, the best course of action is probably to just bite the bullet and wade deep into luxury-tax waters. After all, the Astros will see Reddick, Brantley, Springer, Gurriel and Peacock all come off the books for the 2021 season. Greinke and Verlander will both be free agents the following winter. That’s not to say Houston’s window is “closing,” but the current roster presents an excellent shot at returning to postseason play (particularly with a few additions). A one-year dalliance into luxury territory isn’t likely to come with especially lengthy or concerning ramifications.

And if Houston is willing to pay the luxury tax, the market offers plenty of intriguing mid-rotation arms that won’t require a $30MM+ annual salary like Cole or Stephen Strasburg ultimately will. A reunion with Dallas Keuchel or a pursuit of a mid-tier option like Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda would make plenty of sense. Alternatively, the Astros could look to the trade market to find a less pricey option. Jon Gray or Chris Archer have high-end raw stuff, and Houston has successfully coaxed better performances out of pitchers in similar scenarios. The team had interest in Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline and could look into him again.

The flexibility they have on the position-player side bodes well for creative additions, too. If the Astros have grown weary of Correa’s injury troubles, could they even utilize him to acquire starting pitching help and make a separate run at a high-end trade target? Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant have already seen their names pop up in rumors, and the free-agent market isn’t short on quality third basemen if the team is comfortable with Bregman playing shortstop on a full-time basis.

At this point, a legitimate run at signing any of Cole, Strasburg or Anthony Rendon seems hard to fathom, as it’d truly put the Astros into unprecedented luxury tax territory. But there’s room for the team to shed some salary (Sanchez, Reddick, Chris Devenski, Jake Marisnick, perhaps Roberto Osuna), still make a few additions and simply be OK with living in the second tier of penalization. (The max penalty any first-time CBT offender would pay for going right up to the cusp of the top penalty tier would be $10.4MM.) It’ll be a fine line to walk, but this Houston front office should be creative enough to successfully thread that needle.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Phillies have a pivotal offseason ahead of them, as the club is still seeking its first playoff berth since 2011 despite a concerted effort to emerge from a multi-year rebuilding process. With manager Gabe Kapler dismissed in favor of veteran Joe Girardi, the pressure on the front office is mounting to put together a winning unit.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $300MM through 2031
  • Jean Segura, SS: $43.75MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of 2023 option)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $40MM through 2021 (including $3MM buyout of 2022 option)
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $39MM through 2022 (including $4.25MM buyout of 2023 option)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $20.5MM through 2023 (including $1MM buyout for 2024)
  • Jake Arrieta, RHP: $20MM through 2020
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $19.5MM through 2021 (including $2.5MM buyout of 2022 option)
  • David Robertson, RP: $13MM through 2020 (including $2MM buyout for 2021)
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13MM through 2020 (Mariners are paying $11.625MM)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Jason Vargas, LHP: Phillies declined $8MM option in favor of $2MM buyout
  • Pat Neshek, RP: Phillies declined $7MM option in favor of $750K buyout
  • Jared Hughes, RP: Phillies declined $3MM option in favor of $250K buyout

Free Agents

Over the past two winters, the Phils have added the likes of Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Jake Arrieta and David Robertson via free-agent deals while swinging high-profile trades to acquire J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura (among others). The directive from ownership and the front office alike has been clear: bring playoff baseball back to Philadelphia. Hard as it may be to believe, the Phillies haven’t played a postseason game since 2011, when their roster featured the dominant trio of Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and the late Roy Halladay. (Roy Oswalt wasn’t exactly a shabby fourth starter, either.)

Aggressive as they’ve been, however, the Phillies simply haven’t been able to sustain a season’s worth of winning ways. The 2018 and 2019 Phillies each had clear talent, as both iterations of the team enjoyed a lengthy run in first place in the NL East. However, those two most recent versions of the Phils also faceplanted in stunning fashion late in the season and were left at or just shy of the .500 mark. Now, fourth-year GM Matt Klentak is feeling more pressure to construct a winner than ever before.

The clearest area for improvement is on the pitching staff, where Philadelphia hurlers were a nearly across-the-board disappointment — so much so that pitching coach Chris Young was jettisoned after just one year on the job. Bryan Price, who like Girardi is a seasoned dugout veteran, will step into Young’s place and work to improve upon a Phillies rotation that posted a lowly 4.64 ERA (4.91 FIP) and a bullpen that wasn’t much better (4.38 ERA, 4.84 FIP).

In the rotation, Aaron Nola is really the Phillies’ only surefire bet to be an above-average starter. The 2019 season certainly wasn’t Nola’s best, but the 26-year-old has cemented himself as a quality workhorse upon whom the club can rely. Jake Arrieta was once described similarly, but he struggled in 2019 while pitching through a bone spur in his elbow and ultimately succumbed to season-ending surgery. At 34 years of age in March, the former Cy Young winner is somewhat of a wild card in the rotation.

The 2019 Phillies opted to forgo veteran rotation additions and instead leaned heavily on Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, entrusting the balance of its Opening Day rotation spots to that young trio. Of the three, only Eflin delivered useful results — and even he briefly lost his grip on a rotation spot and found himself sojourned to the bullpen. Through 163 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old notched a 4.13 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Eflin’s 1.54 HR/9 mark was higher than one would like (hence his 4.85 FIP), but his bottom-line results were plenty serviceable. The same can’t be said for the 26-year-old Pivetta or the 27-year-old Velasquez. Pivetta logged a brutal 5.74 ERA as a starter, while Velasquez was only a bit better (4.96 ERA in the rotation).

It can be argued that the Phillies should have a greater sense of urgency than any other team in MLB when it comes to adding to the rotation (particularly now that Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer in Minnesota, giving the rotation-needy Twins a bit more stability). Fortunately, it’s a deep class of starting pitching headlined by a pair of bona fide, franchise-altering aces in the form of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. But, while the Phillies have been as aggressive as anyone on the open market in recent seasons, Klentak has suddenly offered a more measured approach with regard to free agency.

“One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond,” Klentak said in a recent appearance on the 94 WIP Midday Show. But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from. That’s where Spencer Howard comes from. That’s where Connor Seabold comes from. … We’ve got to try to hang onto that as much as we can.”

Perhaps Klentak was merely doing everything in his power to avoid doubling down on owner John Middleton’s “stupid money” decree a year ago this time, but those comments don’t sound like a portent for a run at Cole or Strasburg. Middleton could, of course, take matters into his own hands, but Klentak’s recent sentiment is surely of note.

If the organizational preference is indeed to add rotation help — and Klentak did plainly state a need to address the starting staff in that same interview — then the top names on the Phillies’ radar would likely be Hyun-Jin Ryu and old friend Cole Hamels, who has already expressed interest in a return to the Phils. Other notable names lacking a qualifying offer include Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Julio Teheran and Kyle Gibson. While no one from that bunch is of the same caliber as the Cole or Strasburg — Ryu may not be far off, but his durability is a perennial question mark — the Phils do have options to round out the rotation if they prefer to hang onto their draft choices.

As always, the trade market will present innumerable alternatives. Corey Kluber, Matthew Boyd, Chris Archer, Jon Gray, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and (depending on the direction the Red Sox go) Eduardo Rodriguez are all, at the very least, plausible winter trade candidates. Other, less-expected names will surely surface as well.

There’s also reason to believe the Phillies will work to improve their relief corps. The club’s relief unit — like those of the rest of the NL East teams — was not a strength in 2019. Closer Hector Neris is a solid performer at the back of the unit. Pitchers such as Jose Alvarez, Seranthony Dominguez, and Ranger Suarez showed some promise. Victor Arano could be a big asset if he can return to health. But there’s obviously room for improvement. Klentak could consider any and all remaining open-market options, though he’d need to hit the trade market if he prefers to pursue a tried-and-true closer type.

Looking at the team’s lineup, there are nearly as many questions as answers. J.T. Realmuto will once again be the team’s primary catcher in 2020 — and perhaps for years to come if the two sides can come to terms on an extension, which is another key winter priority for Klentak and his staff. Bryce Harper is now entrenched in right field, and a healthy Andrew McCutchen will return from an ACL tear to man the other outfield corner. On the infield, first baseman Rhys Hoskins will look to rebound from a terrible second half, and Jean Segura is signed through 2022. Scott Kingery will be in the mix somewhere, but his ability to play third base, second base, shortstop and the outfield gives the Phils quite a bit of flexibility.

They’ll need it, particularly with the possibility of non-tendering Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez. The latter of the two has generally been a solid second baseman but could see his arbitration price climb north of $11MM in 2020, which is an untenable financial arrangement, especially with a free agent market loaded with veteran alternatives. The former, meanwhile, has struggled immensely and never fully delivered on his once ballyhooed prospect status. And then there’s center fielder Odubel Herrera, who was suspended 85 games under MLB’s domestic violence policy and isn’t guaranteed a place in the organization moving forward. (And even before that ban, Herrera wasn’t producing at the plate.)

The Phillies, then, could explore the market for third basemen, second basemen and/or center fielders depending on how they want to play their cards. The infield offers ample possibilities, with Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas all available in free agency and a host of serviceable (but unspectacular) second basemen on the market as well. Rendon and Donaldson have qualifying offers attached to them, so if the Phillies are indeed avoiding such free agents, they’d likely look to Moustakas as the headlining free-agent option. A pursuit of Didi Gregorius may not be an immediately obvious fit, but Segura could move to either second or third base to facilitate that type of deal. (And on cue, there’s now reporting to suggest this could indeed be a consideration.)

The center field market is rather thin, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama representing viable regulars in free agency. But the trade market offers a natural fit in Pirates center fielder Starling Marte. The Phillies could also line up with the Red Sox on a Jackie Bradley Jr. deal.

The Phillies, though, have the financial means and the urgency needed to go searching for a bigger fish. If the Red Sox truly are going to explore moving Mookie Betts, he’d look mighty fine roaming center field in Philly for the 2020 season (if not beyond). There’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility of the Cubs moving Kris Bryant this winter, and the Phils have a need at the hot corner. Francisco Lindor’s name is out there, too; clearing the way for him at short would easily be worth the trouble. The Phillies don’t have the deepest of farm systems, but there’s every reason for Klentak to push the envelope and try to bring a winner to Citizens Bank Park.

Some may question whether the Phillies can plausibly afford to spend much after last year’s free-agent bonanza, but on an annual basis, Harper’s record deal isn’t really that cumbersome. The Phillies have about $167MM on the 2020 books — if you include all of the projected arbitration salaries. Jettisoning Hernandez and Franco, for instance, would trim $18.5MM from that sum.

In terms of luxury tax considerations, the club is at a manageable $186MM (including Hernandez and Franco). At this point, it’s hard to justify drawing a hard line at that $208MM barrier. The Phillies were extremely aggressive last winter, are trying to extend Realmuto and have no designs on going back into rebuild mode at any point in the near future. Treating the luxury threshold as a salary cap would be a suddenly weak-hearted change of course to what has been an aggressive pursuit — particularly given the fact that as a first-time offender, the only real penalty they’d face would be a 20 percent overage fee on their first $20MM. That’s a $4MM slap on the wrist even if they cross the plane by as much as $20MM. And with Arrieta, Robertson and several arbitration players off the books next winter, dipping back beneath the line shouldn’t be that difficult.

The Phillies may have a tough road to contention given the strength of their division rivals, particularly those in Atlanta and D.C., but their direction remains obvious. We’re talking about a big-market, high-payroll club that hasn’t been to the playoffs in nearly a decade, has a GM entering his fifth season, and is only nine months removed from signing a player to the largest free-agent contract the sport has ever seen. The Phillies should and will aggressively add to the roster this winter.

Interesting Players Designated In Advance Of Rule 5 Deadline

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Wednesday marked the deadline for teams to protect players from next month’s Rule 5 draft, and the evening didn’t pass without its fair share of activity. Dozens of prospects were ultimately provided shelter on their clubs’ 40-man rosters, but, as expected, many of those moves required some tough decisions on the part of parent clubs.

While gaining a spot on a 40-man roster marks an important step in a young player’s career, it often means that a veteran must be politely shown the organizational door. Sure enough, Wednesday saw several experienced position players and pitchers designated for assignment, traded to rival clubs, or outright released.

With the smoke still clearing on many of these moves, readers may simply be scrambling to make sense of which of their favorite team’s prospects were left unprotected in advance of the Rule 5. But what about the veterans who are currently left floating in DFA limbo as a result of the evening’s activities?

Today offers a good opportunity to examine a few players who, in the coming days, will be available for selection via waiver claim or trade after being designated by their teams last night. While we saw some well-known, oft-injured names either released (Jacoby Ellsbury) or traded (Jose De Leon) by their clubs, we’ll focus instead on DFA’d players who could soon find a place on another MLB roster.

Matt Duffy: Rays GM Erik Neander had a busy night on Wednesday, with his club adding five prospects to its 40-man. While the Rays’ trade of the oft-injured De Leon to the Reds was likely a tough roster-clearing pill for fans to swallow, Duffy’s own designation also brought about a few “what-if” questions. Originally acquired as part of the 2016 package coming back to Tampa in return for Matt Moore, Duffy projected as a controllable, well-rounded infielder who, true to the club’s modus operandi, could play a few positions while hitting well enough to justify his lineup spot. Unfortunately, injuries limited Duffy to just 199 games in a Rays uni since the middle of 2016, and he now hits the waiver wire as a 28-year-old just one year removed from his 2018 batting line of .294/.361/.366 production (107 wRC+).

Nick Goody: The 28-year-old Goody was jettisoned from the Indians roster when the club added outfielder Daniel Johnson, right-hander Triston McKenzie and left-hander Scott Moss to its roster. While the Indians boast enviable pitching depth, it’s easy to see where Goody could fit on a number of MLB rosters. Since making his debut with the Yankees in 2015, the LSU alum has logged a 3.81 ERA supported by a 10.9 K/9 rate; he was superlative in 2017 out of the Cleveland pen, in particular, notching a 2.80 ERA/3.45 FIP across 54 2/3 innings of work. Goody’s 4.62 FIP and 4.9 BB/9 rate in 2019 showed that there was perhaps a bit of rust beneath the veneer of his 3.54 ERA, but the longtime Statcast darling shouldn’t have trouble finding a big league job next season, given the collective strength of his track record.

Nestor Cortes Jr.: Cortes was culled from the Yankees’ active roster on Wednesday, on the heels of a rough 2019 campaign out of the New York bullpen. While his 5.67 ERA across 66 2/3 Bronx innings last year would likely tell you what you need to know, Cortes is still just 24 years old and possesses a solid track record of success in the upper minors. The lefty posited a 3.86 ERA across seven games and six starts for the Triple-A Yankees of Scranton Wilkes-Barre, with decent underlying metrics (9.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9). Cortes doesn’t throw hard, with a fastball sitting around 89 mph, but he offers a five-pitch mix and could represent an interesting depth flier for a rebuilding club in search of a back-end starter.

Jharel Cotton: Like Duffy, Cotton’s story is largely defined by injury. Since coming to Oakland from the Dodgers as part of the package received in return for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick, Cotton has loomed as a potential impact arm on the edges of the Athletics rotation. However, his unimpressive 2017 (5.58 ERA in 129 innings) was followed up by Tommy John surgery in 2018, and Cotton ultimately missed most of 2019 due to a hamstring issue that required surgery. The now-27-year-old righty hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in two years, but his relative youth and starter’s repertoire could see him latch on with a new team in short order. Cotton was removed from the A’s roster on Wednesday to make room for Daulton Jefferies.

Tim Mayza: Mayza doesn’t bring the former prospect pedigree of some of the other names on this list, and he’s a non-factor for 2020 specifically after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  But, for a team interested in signing Mayza to a low-cost two-year deal, what he does offer is a lefty arm and at least some record of effectiveness while pitching in the AL East. While the 27-year-old limped to a 4.91 ERA/4.73 FIP in extended action in 2019, he was far more effective in a more limited feature in 2018. That season saw Mayza log a 3.28 ERA/3.36 FIP through 35.2 innings; not exactly an overwhelmingly convincing sample size, but lefties are at a perpetual premium and Mayza does hold a 10.6 K/9 rate across 104 career innings. Lefties have managed just a 70 OPS+ against Mayza for his career, although it is fair to wonder whether next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule may limit clubs in their deployment of LOOGY types.

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