Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Projecting Payrolls: Minnesota Twins

By | at

As we kick off the eighth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we examine a club in one of baseball’s worst divisions that is nonetheless seemingly far from contention: the Minnesota Twins.

Team Leadership

Despite rumored relocation and contraction in the 1990s and early 2000s, Twins ownership has been impressively stable. Banker Carl Pohlad purchased the team in 1984, passing it to his children upon his death in 2009. Pohlad’s son, Jim, succeeded his father as Chairman of the ballclub and the public face of the franchise. With the sparkling Target Field opening in 2010, it appears as though the team is married to the Pohlads and the Twin Cities for the foreseeable future.

The front office is headed by general manager Thad Levine, hired from the Texas Rangers following the 2016 season to resuscitate the Minnesota franchise after over a decade as assistant general manager in Texas. The front office also brought in Derek Falvey as chief baseball officer contemporaneously with Levine. With two years on the job and despite a surprise run to the American League Wild Card Game in 2017, Levine and Falvey have primarily focused on clearing the financial books to rebuild the roster in their image moving forward.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Twins, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

The Twins spent a franchise record on payroll in 2018 and it wasn’t particularly close to the previous high water mark in 2011.

Spending under Carl Pohlad was consistently among the lowest in the league. When his children took over and the club moved into Target Field, spending immediately increased in a meaningful way prior to a mini-rebuild in 2013-14. The days of Minnesota spending alongside the likes of Oakland and Tampa Bay appear to be a thing of the past.

While the Twins have never come particularly close to the luxury tax threshold, the team has made some major endeavors into the international amateur marketplace…and not just in Latin America. The franchise’s marquee amateur signing was that of Miguel Sano, whose $3.15 million bonus in 2009 set a record for a foreign amateur at the time. The franchise’s wide vision also led them to give outfielder Max Kepler an $800,000 bonus out of Germany in the same 2009 class. That said, the Twins weren’t one of the clubs that blew past the league-imposed soft spending limits for international amateurs or North American draftees.

Not included above: a $12.85 million posting fee to negotiate with Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park prior to the 2016 season. More on Park below.

Future Liabilities

This is quite possibly the funniest chart of any team in the series: the Twins have $0 guaranteed on their books beyond 2019.

This chart would have included $3 million in 2019 and $500,000 in 2020 for Park, but the Korean first baseman elected to forgo his guaranteed salaries in exchange for an outright release that permitted him to return to the Nexen Heroes for the 2018 season.

With Park out of the picture and buyouts paid to Santana and Morrison, the Twins find themselves only with the contract-year commitments to Reed, Castro, and Pineda as well as the final payment due to San Diego for Hughes.

Reed came to Minnesota as a closing candidate in his late-20s, but imploded in his debut season with the team, showing velocity decreases of nearly 1.5 miles per hour on both his fastball and his slider, a big drop in strikeout rate, a huge uptick in homer rate, and an upper arm injury. The Twins can take solace in the facts that Reed has long succeeded in Major League bullpens and that his injury was apparently to his biceps instead of his elbow or shoulder.

Castro has enjoyed a nice career with a slightly below-average bat complementing elite framing, but a meniscus injury wiped out most of his 2018. With Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo providing more interesting options as the club continues to rebuild, it’s possible that Castro could find it tough to come by plate appearances in 2019.

Pineda was paid in 2018 to rehabilitate following Tommy John surgery in the hopes that he would prove to be a bargain in 2019. In late August, 13 months removed from his operation, Pineda suffered a torn meniscus, derailing a September Twins debut. He figures to be ready for Spring Training.

While the guarantees are rather ho-hum, there is plenty of organizational intrigue to be found in the arbitration-eligible ranks. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Odorizzi and Gibson both enjoyed strong 2018s on the heels of disappointing 2017 campaigns. Should either or both succeed again in early 2019, Minnesota will likely find themselves with a difficult decision to make: extend or trade. While the team should plausibly be able to fill one 2020 rotation spot between Triple-A southpaws Stephen Gonsalves and Lewis Thorpe, they will need significant depth behind Jose Berrios to contend in what could be a wide-open American League Central.

Cron was a shrewd pickup from the cost-shaving Rays and figures to replace icon Joe Mauer’s production at first base for a small fraction of the financial cost. Rosario offers a similar power-first, minus-defense profile, albeit from left field. Kepler offers a solid mix of power and defense, but his on-base skills have limited his overall effectiveness to date. Improved on-base ability would propel Kepler to be a plus regular.

Speaking of plus regulars, as recently as this time last year, the Twins surely thought that they had two of them on their hands in the forms of Sano and Buxton. Despite missing 94 games between 2016-17, Sano blasted 53 Major League homers over those two years at 23 and 24. Buxton, just 22 and 23 in 2016-17, had seemingly established himself as a below-average offensive performer with loud tools who was nevertheless an impact player on the strength of elite speed and defense in center field. Then both players imploded in 2018, combining to post -0.4 WAR while Buxton spent more time at Triple-A than in the Majors (due in part, controversially, to service time concerns). Moving forward, the team will need big rebounds from both young stars.

Rogers sizzled in 2018, pitching well versus right-handed batters and positively stifling lefties to the tune of a 1.39 FIP. He figures to be an important bullpen piece in his age-28 season this year.

It seems as though it has been many years since May, a former top-100 prospect, shined in the Minnesota rotation. Alas, it was just 2015 that May pitched to a 3.25 FIP over 114 2/3 innings, emerging as a potential key piece for the Twins. Then, the injury bug derailed his career in a significant way, first via a stress fracture in his back and then with Tommy John surgery. Finally returning to Major League action on July 31, 2018, May threw 25 1/3 splendid innings while striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. A healthy May will be an asset at the back of the Twins’ bullpen.

Finally, Grossman and Adrianza appear to be non-tender candidates.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

In projecting the 2019 payroll as the 2018 season wrapped up, Pohlad acknowledged that the club possessed significant payroll flexibility but countered that “I don’t know if you can ever go out in the offseason and sign a face-of-the-franchise player,” following up with an acknowledgment that “everyone knows my aversion to long commitments. Most often, they do not turn out to be successful, in terms of getting your return on them.” Levine seemed to admit that the Twins don’t expect big-time free agents to target Minnesota as a possible landing spot, commenting that while the team planned to pursue important free agents, “whether or not they’d actually want to come here would be yet to be determined.” Falvey seemingly drove the point home, arguing that “we know that free agency can be a risky place to spend a lot of time.”

While the front office is seemingly willing to take on salary to improve, it doesn’t look like paying top-of-the-market prices for premium talent is going to be a big part of team building in the Twin Cities this winter.

Are the Twins a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Given the comments from Pohlad, Levine, and Falvey, and considering the Twins’ market, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Minnesota is a finalist for either player.  Still, if management was being coy or considers one of them an exception, the Twins do currently have the payroll space to accommodate a huge salary.  A monster contract has the potential to hamstring the franchise in the future, however, making them an extreme long shot for Harper or Machado.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

Unlike the Red Sox in the previous piece, the luxury tax will not be a factor for the Twins.

After seeing his club finish at 78-84 in 2018 and examining the roster in place, it’s tough to imagine Pohlad sinking a significant payroll increase into this team. However, such an increase isn’t required to make a couple of big additions given the dearth of committed payroll at this juncture in the offseason.

Assuming that Grossman and Adrianza are non-tendered — far from a sure thing — the Twins would enter the offseason with just $76.9 million committed to the roster, approximately 41.5 percent of which will expire at the end of the season in the form of payments for Reed, Castro, Pineda, Hughes, Santana, and Morrison ($31.95 million).

Put bluntly, while ownership and management sometimes wax poetic to the media regarding the state of their franchise, the Twins genuinely have a ton of payroll flexibility both now and into the future.

While I doubt that Levine will get north of $130 million with which to work, I could see Pohlad authorizing a payroll that is nearly on par with the one he authorized in 2018.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $125 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $48.1 million

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

By | at

Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 arbitration projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer enters his third year of arbitration following a career year, in which he had a 2.21 ERA and struck out 221 hitters in 175 1/3 innings. Although he only recorded 12 wins and started 27 games, Bauer is still projected for a sizable $5.075MM raise to propel him from $6.525MM in 2018 to $11.6MM in salary for the 2019 season.

Trevor Bauer

Bauer’s season is somewhat tricky in that his ERA is extremely low and quite rare for an arbitration-eligible pitcher in his service class. However, he also didn’t throw many innings compared to the few pitchers in this class who posted similarly low ERAs. Among pitchers in his service class over the past five years, Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija both had ERAs just below 3.00. However, with 214 1/3 and 219 2/3 innings, respectively, they had considerably larger workloads. Scherzer won 21 games en route to a Cy Young back in 2013, so that netted him a service-class record $8.8MM raise. Samardzija got a $4.46MM raise — lower than Bauer’s projected raise — but he also only won seven games back in 2014. As such, it makes sense that Bauer would be projected for a larger raise. Clayton Kershaw actually had an ERA of 1.83 going into his third year of arbitration, but he signed a multi-year deal and is probably not a relevant comp for that reason.

The most relevant may be Doug Fister in 2015, who had a 16-6 record (four more wins than Bauer at 12-6) and a 2.41 ERA (similar to Bauer’s 2.21). Importantly, Fister’s 164 innings from that season are only 11 1/3 fewer than Bauer threw in 2018. That was four years ago, and it was good for a $4.2MM raise. The big advantage that Bauer has over Fister is that he struck out more than twice as many hitters. Fister fanned a mere 98 batters, while Bauer recorded a third strike against a whopping 221 hitters. It seems like this should make Fister’s raise a floor, although the four fewer wins could prove important. Still, I think the $5.075MM raise my model projects for Bauer is a defensible one.

If we step away from ERA to find reasonable comparables other than Fister, we find a couple interesting starters who recently had 200-plus strikeouts in fewer than 200 innings. Tyson Ross got a $4.38MM raise in 2016 after a 10-12 season with a 3.26 ERA, in which he whiffed 212 men in 196 frames. Michael Pineda racked up 207 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings the following season, though he only received a $3.1MM raise thanks to an ugly 6-12 record and decidedly sub-par 4.82 ERA. Ross is the more logical comp, but with Bauer producing an ERA a full run lower, he should land north of Ross’ raise.

Jake Arrieta is another somewhat interesting and relevant comp. Two years ago, the right-hander struck out 190 batters in 197 1/3 innings, with more wins (18) than Bauer but an inferior ERA (3.10). Arrieta received a $4.94MM raise.

Between Fister, Ross, and Arrieta, we have three starters who received raises between $4.2MM and $4.94MM when they were in this service class. All three fall short of Bauer in one category or another. With natural salary inflation, I think the model is probably in the right neighborhood for Bauer for his 2019 salary forecast.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

By | at

Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

Nolan Arenado already earned $17.75 million in 2018, and put together another storied season. He led the league with 38 home runs, and hit .297 while knocking in 110 runs. He won yet another Gold Glove, yet another Silver Slugger, made the All Star Game, and again finished in the Top 5 of MVP Voting. That makes for his sixth, fourth, fourth, and third consecutive season in each of those accomplishments.

Entering his fourth year of arbitration, it stands to reason that Arenado will earn more than any player ever has in arbitration. After all, Josh Donaldson currently holds that record at $23 million just last year. Since the arbitration system generally awards raises based on platform year performance (except for in the player’s first year of arbitration eligibility), Donaldson’s level of pay would only reflect a $5.25 million raise, which is frankly too small for Arenado.

Indeed, the model predicts a big move up to $26.1MM for Arenado, which would represent a raise of over $8MM from his 2018 salary. Notably, too, there is some uncertainty present, since he earned $17.75 million last year only as part of a two year deal. Players do sometimes get treated differently in the event of returning to arbitration following multi-year deals. In the industry, this is often termed a “re-slot.” Probably the most recent notable example of such was Bryce Harper. In 2017, he received an $8.625 million raise from $5 to $13.625 million after a two-year deal. In that case, Harper had won the MVP Award in the first year of the two covered by the earlier agreement, and may have been treated as someone who would be re-slotted. In this case, if we were to estimate what Arenado would have earned in arbitration in 2018 based on his 2017 performance, we might have guessed $20.7 million rather than $17.75 million.

So, if anything, we would probably expect Arenado to argue for more than $26.1 million based on a re-slotting. Already in uncharted waters in terms of salary, that may or may not be a hard sell. After all, at that point, we would be looking at a “Kimbrel Rule” situation. That “rule” is named after Craig Kimbrel, and basically describes the maximum amount that we should expect a player to break the record raise for his service class. This rule exists because Craig Kimbrel’s first year of arbitration eligibility was so unique that my model had him earning significantly more than any closer had ever earned. We therefore capped his projection. The Kimbrel rule as applied to Arenado would give him a $26.75 million maximum, not much different than his $26.1 million projection.

If we look for comparables, it’s hard to find any for Arenado regardless of the method used to evaluate him. Donaldson would actually be a floor in my estimation. He hit .270 with 33 HR and 78 RBI in 2017, but in just 496 PA. With Arenado stepping up to the plate a whopping 673 times, and hitting .297 with 38 HR and 110 RBI, he will surely not command a smaller raise than Donaldson’s $6 million.

One potential comparable for Arenado could be teammate Charlie Blackmon, who produced .331/37/104 the year before last, and got a $6.7 million raise. We might expect that to be a rather close match for Arenado, although Blackmon’s ultimate raise was called into question by other agents at the time. Still, if we think that Arenado would come in at about a $6.7 million raise, that would land him at a $24.45 million salary — less than his $26.1 million projection. On the other hand, if Arenado’s Gold Gloves or higher service time factor in, we may still be north of that and closer to his projection.

Arenado will be an interesting, record-breaking case this year. With several complicating factors impacting his case, there’s a fairly large spread of dollars theoretically open for discussion. Ultimately, I suspect that the model is pretty close, but I could see being off by a couple million in either direction.

Projecting Payrolls: Chicago White Sox

By | at

As we kick off the sixth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we visit a rebuilding team that looks ready to take a big jump in 2019…0r maybe 2020: the Chicago White Sox.

Team Leadership

After making his fortune by perfecting real estate tax shelters, Jerry Reinsdorf purchased the White Sox for $19 million in 1981 four years prior to purchasing the Bulls. Dating to the time of his Bulls purchase, Reinsdorf has always been known to prefer baseball to basketball, though obviously his success with the Bulls has dwarfed his team’s success on the baseball diamond. However, his most recent championship did come via the White Sox who blitzed their way to a World Series win in 2005, going 11-1 in the playoffs to snap an 88-year title drought.

The baseball operations department has enjoyed incredible consistency over the last two decades. Executive Vice President Kenny Williams joined the organization in advance of the 1993 season, eventually working his way to the general manager job at the end of the 2000 season, at which time he added Rick Hahn to the front office. After 12 years on the job, Williams ascended to his current role, promoting Hahn to general manager where he serves to this day. Reinsdorf has a reputation for over-the-top loyalty — just ask Bulls fans about John Paxson and Gar Forman — and the continuity of the Williams-Hahn front office bears this out.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the White Sox, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Whereas we’ve seen some robust numbers earlier in this series, the White Sox simply haven’t followed the rest of the league in increasing spending.

The first year in this chart featured a World Series winner that unsurprisingly led to a meaningful increase in spending over the next three years as it often does for a winning team. However, instead of employing regular payroll increases to continue staying competitive in the coming years following the World Series win, Reinsdorf instead largely stuck with payrolls between $90 million and $120 million excepting a spike in 2011.

Then the tank finally got cheap in 2018. Payroll cratered to just over $70 million and the record followed suit, dipping to 62-100, the worst White Sox record since 1970. Given the above, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Sox enter 2019 on a 10-year playoff drought.

While the White Sox certainly haven’t come close to the luxury tax threshold in recent years, their spending total for 2017 listed above doesn’t include a massive one-time expenditure in Latin America. While the club hasn’t been among the more aggressive teams when it comes to international amateur spending, they did give Cuban phenom Luis Robert a $26 million bonus in mid-2017 that came complete with a corresponding $26 million tax. That $52 million was a one-off expense and not the culmination of years of excess spending, but it must be considered when evaluating club spending over the past decade or so. If Robert’s bonus is allocated to 2017 payroll and the tax payment is allocated to 2018 payroll, the recent dips aren’t nearly as notable.

Future Liabilities

Giving the White Sox future liabilities section its own spreadsheet is almost comical (wait until we get to the Rays for high comedy). Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach.

There’s simply not much to see here. Castillo is a bridge catcher to get the organization to catcher-of-the-future and 2016 first round pick Zack Collins. Collins had a breakout year with the bat at Double-A in 2018, so he should be ready for the full-time gig in Chicago by 2019.

Jones has been a key cog in the White Sox bullpen for years, but he also comes with serious injury concerns. As a result, his contract occupies the middle ground between a closer-type and an injured middle reliever.

And then there’s Anderson, the former top pick with extreme athletic tools and a deeply frustrating inability to get on base. Anderson has hit 37 homers and stolen 41 bases over the past two seasons while playing a roughly average Major League caliber shortstop since his 2016 call to the Show. However, his .286 career on-base percentage has rendered him a decidedly below-average offensive player on the whole. The primary culprits? A 3.4 percent career walk rate against a 26 percent career strikeout rate. If he manages to either curb the strikeouts or kick up the walks above his career-high five percent from 2018, Anderson may yet turn into a plus regular. If he doesn’t, he’ll remain a roughly average starting Big League shortstop who leaves talent evaluators and fans wondering why he never took then next step toward star-level production.

A more significant amount of White Sox talent can be found in the arbitration table. Chicago did non-tender Danny Farquhar, whose recovery from a brain aneurysm figures to be one of the great baseball stories of 2018 and possibly 2019 as well if he completes his comeback to the field. Farquhar was cleared to play last week. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Abreu burst onto the scene with an explosive 2014 debut, blasting 36 homers and reaching base at a sparkling .383 clip. He hasn’t repeated that offensive success in subsequent years, but he had durability on his side until 2018, playing at least 145 games each year from 2014-17 before slipping to 128 last year, and his worst career wRC+ is 114. Abreu is an offensive positive, but in recent years, it has been unclear whether he’ll be a force or merely above average.

Garcia came to the White Sox at the 2013 deadline in a deal that sent shortstop Jose Iglesias to Detroit and landed starter Jake Peavy in Boston. It’s hard to see his career to date as anything other than a massive disappointment. Since his 2012 debut and excluding the 2017 season, Garcia has produced exactly 0.0 WAR over 1,936 plate appearances. Ah, but that 2017 year. Garcia rode a .392 BABIP to a 137 wRC+ and an appearance in the All-Star Game. His 2017 success wasn’t replicated in 2018 as hamstring and knee injuries limited him to 93 games and a dreadful .281 on-base percentage. He underwent knee surgery shortly after the season ended in early October. What his 2019 will look like is anyone’s guess.

After showing awful offensive production in pieces of three seasons from 2014-16, Sanchez produced decently at the plate in 2017-18, allowing his plus defensive profile at second and third base to shine, making him a surprising average regular.

After being selected third overall in 2014 draft, Rodon zoomed to the Majors, making 23 starts in 2015. He made 28 more in 2016, exhibiting above-average ability in both seasons. In 2017, the injury bug bit the big lefty and it hasn’t left him yet. 2019 will be an essential year in his development.

Defensive metrics despise Davidson’s glovework and he has struggled to get on base with regularity in the Majors, posting a .295 on-base percentage to date. However, he has launched 46 homers over the past two years and showed adequate on-base ability in 2018, reaching at a .319 clip…and he struck out Giancarlo Stanton. Wait, what? Davidson made three pitching appearances this past season, working with a low-90s fastball and both a slider and a curveball. Perhaps thanks in part to Shohei Ohtani, the White Sox and Davidson himself both envision him as a two-way player in 2019.

Finally, the diminutive Garcia has managed to stick around despite career marks of a .280 on-base percentage and a .102 ISO. He does play numerous defensive positions, perhaps explaining his continued role.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Hahn and Reinsdorf have refrained from making explicit declarations that the White Sox will spend big, but for those interested in reading tea leaves, the indications are there. While Hahn has repeatedly indicated that the team will continue to focus on its future and long-term building, the team is “fully aware there are needs [they] need to address in the coming weeks and months,” adding that the financial flexibility that the team has accumulated in recent years will be used “this offseason or next.” Given what sources have relayed to Jon Heyman, the Sox are ready to take their step forward now.

Are the White Sox a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Despite indications that the White Sox are going to exercise some financial might this winter, genuine interest in Harper and/or Machado would be an unheard of step for the organization. Although Hahn has been quick to point out that the deal wasn’t the largest offered in team history, it nonetheless speaks volumes that Jose Abreu’s $68 million guarantee is the biggest commitment made to an individual White Sox player in club history. The jump from $68 million to perhaps a figure $300 million higher would be a stunning leap.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out earlier this month, the Sox did once sign Albert Belle to the largest contract in baseball history.  A fair portion of MLBTR’s readership had not yet been born when that deal was struck in 1996.

This is a club that is ready for a splashy addition, they have the financial wherewithal to do so, and these two players are both generational talents who are available now, not in a future offseason. The White Sox will be players for each member of this young pair — though not a threat to sign both — as they look to improve, but for a team that has never shown a penchant to carry a top-of-the-market payroll, it’s tough to see a fit absent a cultural shift.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

It remains to be seen if this winter will be the one in which the White Sox take a major financial plunge. Their best young pitcher, Michael Kopech, will miss the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and their prized elite young bat, outfielder Eloy Jimenez, has yet to debut. Few would fault the team for waiting another year and taking the big step forward next offseason when Kopech will return, fellow top young righty Dylan Cease should have debuted, Collins will likely be ready at catcher, Jimenez will have a year — or perhaps 171 days of service time — under his belt, top youngster Yoan Moncada will have had another year of development, Robert should be ready, and the club can make a long-term decision on Abreu.

Then again, it has been a decade since the White Sox made the playoffs. Their closest American League Central finish in the last six years was finishing 16 1/2 games back of Cleveland in 2016. They’re well past due for a winner on the South Side.

Assuming that the team keeps its six arbitration eligible players, they’re slated for a laughably low payroll of just $58.9 million as of the start of the offseason. There’s no chance that payroll will remain this low.

Given that recent top-10 pick Carson Fulmer appears to have washed out and that elite righty prospect Lucas Giolito has struggled mightily, the Sox could set the market for somebody like Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel, forcing either lefty’s hand with a economic argument made in order to secure a much-needed stabilizer for the team’s rotation.

I expect that the White Sox will wield their financial might to sign somebody for a guarantee larger than the $68 million given to Abreu. If Reinsdorf and Hahn elect to flip the switch from rebuild to contention this winter, payroll will likely jolt back to the $115-120 million territory. If instead they elect to inch ahead in the rebuild, focusing on 2020 as their year to make a big move, payroll will likely only continue the climb toward previous levels. I predict that they’ll take the second track, one that will still leave them with plenty of cash with which to make a couple of meaningful additions before another significant jump next year.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $100 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $41.1 million

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A very busy winter is on the horizon for the Phillies, as they are poised to explore all options on the free agent and trade fronts in order to firmly return to contention in 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jake Arrieta, SP: $45MM through 2020 (Arrieta can opt out after 2019 season, but Phillies can void the opt-out by exercising a two-year/$40MM club option for 2021-22)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $35MM through 2020 (includes $500K buyout of $17.5MM club option for 2021)
  • Odubel Herrera, CF: $24.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $11.5MM club option for 2022; Phillies also have a $12.5MM club option for 2023 with a $1MM buyout)
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $21.75MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; Phillies also have club options for 2025-26)
  • Tommy Hunter, RP: $9MM through 2019
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes $750K buyout of $7MM club option for 2020)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Phillies Organizational Depth Chart | Phillies Payroll Overview]

The 2018-19 offseason has long been seen as a natural endpoint for the Phillies’ rebuilding process.  The team’s plan was to have a young core of talent in place by 2018, so the Phils could then spend freely within what was expected to be the most star-studded free agent class in history.  As it turned out, this winter’s free agent crop isn’t quite as historically great as it appeared even a year ago, and the Phillies haven’t quite established their foundation.  The Phils seemed to be taking that step forward when they occupied first place in the NL East as late as August 12, before a late-season collapse (going 12-28 over their last 40 games) doomed the team to an 80-82 record and its seventh straight non-winning season.

With this in mind, a couple of big acquisitions wouldn’t necessarily be the finishing touches on an up-and-coming team.  GM Matt Klentak could be considering a much more substantial overhaul of his roster, especially since Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins reportedly might be the only two truly untouchable players on the roster.  (I’d expect the team to discuss contract extensions with both Nola and Hoskins come Spring Training.)  With this in mind, it’s difficult to specifically predict what the Phillies might have in store this offseason since just about anything is on the table, and the team is already casting a wide net in exploring free agent and trade possibilities.

Sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado as the new face of the franchise?  Many pundits think it could happen (as do MLBTR’s readers).  Sign Craig Kimbrel to anchor the ninth inning and turn promising youngster Seranthony Dominguez into a multi-inning weapon?  Wouldn’t be surprising.  Sign one of Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, or Yusei Kikuchi to join Nola and Jake Arrieta atop the rotation?  Also plausible, as Philadelphia has been linked to all four of those free agent arms on the rumor mill.  Turning to trade candidates, the Phils have reportedly already checked in with the Mariners about shortstop Jean Segura and closer Edwin Diaz, and it’s fair to assume that Klentak will make calls about just about every big name that could be available.

Whatever direction Klentak decides to pursue, he certainly doesn’t have to worry about financial limitations.  Team owner John Middleton has openly promised that the Phillies will be big spenders this winter, and they could “maybe even be a little bit stupid about” how much they hand out in future commitments.  MLBTR’s Rob Huff projected that Philadelphia might have as much as $62.25MM in payroll capacity this winter, and even that estimate might be low if the team decides to truly explode into luxury tax territory ($206MM is the new tax threshold) or if the Phils can open up more payroll space by unloading some of their current players.

The most prominent name in this regard is Carlos Santana, owed $35MM over the next two seasons.  Santana was signed just last winter by the Phillies, and while he provided above-average (109 wRC+) production in 2018, he is already being shopped since Hoskins’ left field defense was so dismal that the team wants to re-install the young slugger at first base.  In a recent examination of Santana’s trade market, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed that the presence of other available first basemen (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak) or DH types (namely Nelson Cruz) in free agency or the trade market could make it hard for the Phillies to find a suitor for Santana.

If Santana’s contract can’t be moved entirely, perhaps the Phillies could try to deal the first baseman for another high-salaried player who is an imperfect fit on his current roster.  Speculatively speaking, a player like Ian Desmond could be a match, since the Rockies need stability at first base and Desmond can be installed into Philadelphia’s outfield (plus, Desmond gives manager Gabe Kapler a multi-positional option).  Desmond has been a negative-fWAR player over his two years in Colorado, so I’d expect any such scenario to involve multiple players to make things palatable for both sides. And that, of course, is but one of myriad scenarios the Philadelphia front office could entertain.

The Phillies have pieces to offer in just about any trade scenario one can imagine, and if everyone but Hoskins and Nola is available at the right price, it’s anyone’s guess as to who on the current MLB roster will make it to Opening Day.  At this time last year, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, and Nick Williams were all coming off strong 2017 performances and looked like possible long-term assets, yet all four took steps backwards last season and may no longer be part of Philadelphia’s future plans.

Of that quartet, Hernandez at least still produced solid OBP numbers, and likely still has the most trade value given how much interest he drew last offseason.  Hernandez is projected for an $8.9MM arbitration salary in 2019 and is controlled through 2020, so the Phillies have to determine if they still like Hernandez at that value or feel they can do better.  Trading Hernandez now would be something of a sell-low case, though he might still be more attractive than other second base options for teams needing there.  The Phillies themselves would be in the market for a new second baseman if they dealt Hernandez, as while the position could eventually have Scott Kingery’s name on it, he didn’t do enough in his rookie season to prove himself worthy of an everyday job.  A short-term veteran in the mold of a Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued if the Phillies still see Kingery as the long-term answer at second base.

While many of the Phillies’ youngsters disappointed last year, it’s a little ironic that Maikel Franco is reportedly one of the likelier pieces to be traded when he’s the one who actually hit well (.270/.314/.467 in 465 PA, 22 homers, 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+) in 2018, rebounding after a couple of lackluster seasons.  Assuming a Franco deal takes place, Kingery could also be an option at third base, though it seems likely that Phillies have a bigger target in mind for the left field of their infield.

Machado has been linked to Philadelphia for months, as the team is one of the few that can reasonably afford the record contract he is likely to receive in free agency, and the Phillies have such clear needs at both third base and shortstop.  No team received less from its shortstops (-1.8 bWAR) than the Phillies in 2018, and with Kingery an imperfect defensive fit and top prospect J.P. Crawford yet to break out in limited MLB action, signing Machado would immediately turn the shortstop position from a minus to a big plus.  Machado’s defensive prowess as a shortstop improved considerably after going from the Orioles to the Dodgers, so signing with another analytically-inclined team like the Phillies could allay concerns about his glovework.

If Machado prefers to remain at shortstop, the Phillies could retain Franco for third base, give Kingery a longer look, or perhaps acquire another third baseman (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas).  If Machado is indeed open to moving back to the hot corner, the Phils could address shortstop in the form of another proven star like Segura, or a multi-position player like Marwin Gonzalez would provide even more roster flexibility for Kapler.

Let’s move from Machado to Harper, who is also an easy fit for the Phillies, given their shaky outfield.  Harper would immediately solidify right field, leaving the team to juggle Williams, Altherr (if is tendered a contract), and Roman Quinn in left field — that is, if the Phillies didn’t turn those players into bench depth by acquiring an established everyday left fielder.  Harper will likely command an even larger contract than Machado, whose infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments and the accusations of dirty play directed towards him during the postseason did little to help his free-agent stock.  Harper has also had his share of controversy in his young career, though his injury history is surely the bigger factor for any team considering giving him the largest contract of all time.

Signing more than one of the free agents who rejected a qualifying offer (Harper, Corbin, Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, A.J. Pollock) would cost the Phillies multiple draft picks and significant chunks of their international signing bonus pool funds.  It isn’t yet known if the Phillies would take such a player development hit for a second consecutive offseason, or if the team would prefer to spend its dollars on players who aren’t tied to compensation.

If Harper signs elsewhere, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, Marwin Gonzalez, David Peralta, or Wil Myers stand out as some of the higher-profile corner outfield options that could be signed or acquired in trades.  The Tigers’ Nick Castellanos is an unlikelier choice for a Phillies team looking to upgrade its defense.  The Phils ranked last among all teams in both Defensive Runs Saved (-146) and UZR/150 (-8.0) last season, and while moving Hoskins out of left field will by itself represent an improvement, the Phillies will be prioritizing better defense in 2019.  To that end, Harper’s own defensive ratings were poor in 2018, though agent Scott Boras is aiming to chalk that up to residual effects from Harper’s leg injury late in the 2017 season.

Center field could also be a target area for this reason, as Herrera’s glove dropped off considerably (as per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, as well as UZR/150 and DRS) and his offense declined for the third straight year.  Kapler hinted that conditioning could have been an issue for Herrera, and the outfielder also saw more time in right field than in center over the latter weeks of the season.

While the Phillies acquired Wilson Ramos for the pennant race, another big splash at catcher is dependent on their long-term view of Jorge Alfaro.  The 25-year-old’s contact skills and pitch-blocking are still a work in progress, making some kind of addition seem likely.  The Phils could sign a veteran backstop to a one-year deal to split time with Alfaro and act as a mentor, but the catching market has a few alternatives if they prefer a higher-profile add.

As much as the Phillies have already looked into Corbin and other top free agent hurlers, the club is likely to limit itself to just one starting pitching addition, since it already has a pretty solid core group of Nola, Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin.  As one might expect given the Phillies’ poor defense, the gap between the rotation’s collective ERA (4.12) and FIP (3.76) was the third-largest of any team in baseball, meaning the starters pitched better than their already-decent numbers indicated.  Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pivetta, Velasquez, or Eflin shifted into a long relief or swingman role to make room for another starter, particularly given Kapler’s penchant for going to his bullpen.

Trade possibilities also can’t be ruled out if the Phillies believe they fetch a good price for their younger arms, or if Arrieta ends up being the big salary moved to create more payroll space.  Arrieta posted his lowest swinging-strike and K/9 totals in five years, his overall numbers dropped over the last two months of the season, and he generally continued to look more like the solid veteran workhorse he was in 2017 than his old ace form for the 2015 Cubs.  I’d find it unlikely that Arrieta is dealt just because the Phils could use some stability and experience within what is still a pretty young rotation, and because even the 2018 version of Arrieta going forward still provides value, if maybe not quite at the $45MM remaining cost of his contract.

Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter have also had their names mentioned in trade rumblings less than a year after signing with the Phillies, as both have significant price tag owed to them in 2019.  Keeping both in the fold wouldn’t be a bad result given that Neshek and Hunter both pitched well last season, and the Phillies could decide to mostly stand pat with their bullpen unless they believe an established closer is needed.  Kimbrel, David Robertson (who could favor teams in the Northeast), and Zach Britton could meet this need in free agency, and it’s worth mentioning that Philadelphia had interest in Britton prior to the trade deadline.

After all of these words about the big moves the Phillies could make, let’s also issue some words of caution.  Since Middleton has gone on record about the team’s planned expenditures, I don’t dare suggest that the Phillies won’t be major players this offseason.  However, Middleton also added this note in his remarks to USA Today: “as Andy [MacPhail, Phillies president] likes to tell me, ’John, we are playing baseball after 2019, so, you can’t spend every last dime after this year.’ You got to have something in the tank for future years.”  The Phils will certainly make at least a couple of big and expensive acquisitions, though they don’t need to go overboard to be a better team next season.  A lot of improvement could come from within, if Alfaro and/or Kingery break out, or if Herrera or Hernandez bounce back, or (perhaps chiefly) if the Phillies simply improve their defense from league-worst status.

A big part of the team’s winter business will be centered around Klentak deciding what he exactly has in his current roster pieces, and beginning the process of shipping out players the organiation doesn’t view as contributors to the next winning Phillies team.  As last offseason’s surprising Santana contract indicates, Klentak isn’t afraid of going outside the box to make a move he feels will improve his roster.  The Phillies could be the most fascinating team of any to watch this winter, as their moves are likely to be a league-wide influence on the entire offseason’s direction.

MLBTR Originals

By | at

Here is the last seven days’ worth of original content from the MLBTR writing staff….

  • The Angels, Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees were the latest teams featured in the Projecting Payroll series by Rob Huff, who analyzes each team’s current financial commitments and past spending history to predict how much money each club could potentially have for new player acquisitions this offseason.
  • We’re continuing to preview our way through each team’s winter plans in our Offseason Outlook series.  This week’s entries spotlighted the Cardinals, Indians (both by Kyle Downing), Braves, Rockies (both by Jeff Todd), and the Giants (by Mark Polishuk).
  • For any number of reasons, a player signed to an expensive contract may no longer be a good fit on his team’s roster.  Jeff Todd compiled a list of such players who could potentially be available in trades this winter, either in pure salary dumps or perhaps cases where two teams exchange high-priced players to better fulfill each club’s need.
  • Tim Dierkes published another round of survey results from the contestants in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest.  This latest set focused on where the players ranked 11th-20th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Andrew McCutchen, Yusei Kikuchi, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Morton, Wilson Ramos, Marwin Gonzalez, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, David Robertson, and Adam Ottavino — will wind up by Opening Day.

Poll: Should The Marlins Trade J.T. Realmuto This Offseason?

By | at

Entering the offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins would trade their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, prior to the 2019 campaign. Not only is Miami a rebuilding team whose control over Realmuto is dwindling (he’s due to become a free agent after 2020), but the 27-year-old has shown no desire to sign an extension with the club.

At this point, a trade of Realmuto hardly seems imminent, but considering the offseason’s still in its infancy, there’s ample time for a deal to come together. However, in order for that to happen, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price for Realmuto, as Buster Olney of ESPN reported Nov. 16 that the Fish are seeking a “beyond staggering” return for the All-Star backstop. Since then, National League East rival Washington – a well-known Realmuto suitor – may have taken itself out of the sweepstakes by signing Kurt Suzuki to a two-year, $10MM contract in free agency. The Nationals could still try for Realmuto, who’d form an elite tandem with Suzuki, but there’s clearly less of a need for them to pay a bounty for a catcher than there was at the outset of the offseason.

Certainly, should talks between the Nationals and Marlins end or continue to stagnate, there would still be a slew of teams interested in Realmuto. As arguably the majors’ premier catcher, Realmuto would easily improve other prospective 2019-20 contenders such as the Astros, Rockies, Mets, Athletics, Brewers, Braves and Dodgers, to name some. As of now, though, the sense from other clubs is that the Marlins will retain Realmuto heading into next season, per Olney.

Because the Marlins seem unlikely to contend in the next two years, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be mistaken in holding Realmuto this winter. In the Marlins’ view, Realmuto’s value actually increased in 2018, according to Olney, though it may be unrealistic on their part to expect a repeat in 2019. Even if the well-rounded Realmuto continues his run as a top-tier catcher next season, his diminishing team control isn’t going to do his trade value any favors. Plus, by keeping Realmuto, Miami would run the risk of a decline in performance and/or a significant injury – either of which would be disastrous from its perspective.

While many are tired of seeing the Marlins sell off proven veterans, as they did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, they may not have a choice with Realmuto. Even after last winter’s firesale, the Marlins continue to feature a below-average farm system, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball America. Moving Realmuto would immediately better their outlook on that front, and if they’re going to trade him, it may be in their best interests to do so in the next few weeks. After all, with bona fide No. 1 options Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos headlining the free-agent catcher class, Miami could soon have two fewer suitors for Realmuto if it doesn’t act quickly.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A persistent 2018 Rockies club made it into the postseason and won a chance at a divisional series, but ran into a Brewers buzzsaw. They’ll look to carry the momentum into the coming season, but will first face a somewhat tricky offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $94MM through 2023 (final two seasons via player option)
  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $40MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Wade Davis, RP: $36MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)
  • Bryan Shaw, RP: $19.5MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
  • Jake McGee, RP: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
  • Mike Dunn, RP: $8MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Chris Iannetta, C: $4.75MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 vesting club option)
  • Seunghwan Oh, RP: $2.5MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Gerardo Parra, OF: Declined $12.5MM club option in favor of $1.5MM buyout

Free Agents

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]

How often have we heard the refrain that the Rockies need starting pitching? It has become an annual rite both to cite the need and assume an inability to fulfill it. Yet here we are, staring at a Colorado club that appears to have an effective, affordable, homegrown staff.

There was uncertainty entering the 2018 season, but it largely resolved in the Rockies’ favor. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland emerged as high-quality rotation pieces, with the former turning in the more impressive peripherals and the latter finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite showing some susceptibility to the long ball and enduring some tough stretches, Jon Gray mostly appears to be another front-of-the-staff asset. And Tyler Anderson was a sturdy piece who turned in 32 useful starts.

That’s a strong four-man rotation group that could form an excellent building block in 2019 and beyond. Filling out the starting unit remains necessary. Antonio Senzatela and Chad Bettis (if tendered) would perhaps be the top internal options, with competition and depth provided by a handful of others who have some MLB experience or appear close to getting a first shot. Jeff Hoffman is the best-known name, but the 40-man roster also includes lefty Sam Howard and right-handers Yency Almonte, Jesus Tinoco, and Ryan Castellani.

None of these candidates is a slam dunk, so it’s certainly possible the Rox will add an arm to the mix via free agency, trade or claim. GM Jeff Bridich has not used the open market to build his rotation, though that may just be a reflection of the internal candidates and external opportunities he has encountered. It’s hard to get a read here, truly. The Rockies could justifiably seek anything from veteran depth all the way up to a top-of-the-rotation piece in the right circumstances, but odds are that a major portion of the Rockies’ resources will not be dedicated to the rotation. There are more glaring needs, after all, in other areas.

One portion of the roster that owner Dick Monfort has greenlighted spending on is the bullpen, with the Rockies bringing in a parade of free agents on fairly significant contracts — few of which have really worked out as hoped. Their best relievers in 2018 came from other avenues, with the homegrown Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg emerging and later being joined by Seunghwan Oh in a summer trade. While the latter two will return in setup roles in front of expensive closer Wade Davis, Ottavino is now a free agent.

Davis, of course, was the biggest splurge of all the recent reliever signings. He was generally effective but not dominant in 2018, leading the National League with 43 saves and compiling 10.7 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 but also ending with only a 4.13 ERA. A notable drop in his swinging-strike rate leaves some cause for concern, but the Rockies at least have reason to think Davis can anchor the pen in the season to come. The outlook is far murkier for the other recent free agent splashes: Shaw and McGee combined to allow more than six earned per nine innings in 2018 while Mike Dunn was injured and ineffective. Meanwhile, Chris Rusin hit a wall, Harrison Musgrave was mediocre, and no other pitcher contributed even twenty frames.

So, will the Rockies dare return to free agency to buttress this unit? Perhaps, but there’s already so much cash tied up in the relief corps that it’d be hard to keep throwing money at the problem. Plus, there are some in-house possibilities to consider. The aforementioned Almonte did have a strong showing in 14 appearances, though the club did not see fit to utilize him in the postseason. Tinoco showed some promise as a relief candidate in the Arizona Fall League. And southpaw DJ Johnson had an interesting season that could suggest he’s ready for a full go at the bigs.

It’s arguable, then, that the bullpen ought to be approached in much the same way as the rotation: if an opportunity arises to achieve good value in making an improvement, then it ought to be considered. Certainly, the org could reinvest money that would have gone to Bettis and Rusin if they are non-tendered; picking up a few relievers on low-cost MLB or low-risk minors contracts seems wise. But perhaps it’s time the Rockies retired the strategy of targeting certain veteran pen pieces and out-bidding the market to get them.

If the Rockies are to make a true splash, then, it will likely be on a bat of some kind. The 2018 lineup simply had too many holes, with only four players accumulating two or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. One of those, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, barely reached that level and is in any event a free agent. He’ll be joined on the open market by the Rockies’ fifth-best overall performer from the position-player side, long-time outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. The already porous group, then, has yet more openings to account for.

The left side of the infield is the one place without any questions — at least, that is, unless you’re wondering whether Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story might be willing to sign a long-term contract. Bridich and Monfort have ample reason to open talks with both players this winter. Keeping Arenado from the open market, as they did Charlie Blackmon, will be a major challenge that will present some major risks. Leverage will be tough to come by, but the Rockies decisionmakers may be more inclined to stick to their valuations due to the presence of top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who is steadily rising and could be a significant MLB option in the 2019 season.

Arenado and Story have already earned big 2019 arb raises with their excellent play, the precise amounts of which still need to be negotiated, meaning the club has some tough financial decisions to make elsewhere on the roster. Last year, the Rockies opened with a club-record Opening Day payroll of about $137MM. They’re already close to having that amount committed to the 2019 roster, at least assuming they tender their entire arb class and pay it something close to MLBTR’s $45.8MM cumulative estimate. Even trimming a few of the marginal members of the group would only open a few million dollars of space. Likewise, some kind of bad contract swap is always imaginable, but the Rockies could largely be stuck with their undesirable reliever commitments.

In addition to internal promotions, that leaves two ways to improve the remaining areas of the roster: trading for or signing relatively inexpensive players, on the one hand, or boosting payroll, on the other. A legitimate spending increase would move the Rockies into the upper third of league payroll, breaking new ground for the organization.

Whatever the means are, the Rockies need boosts at several positions. The catching situation stands out, as veteran Chris Iannetta did not excel at the plate in his first season in Colorado. He’s assured of one spot, but it’d be disappointing to continue fielding the anemic bat of Tony Wolters or simply to hope that Tom Murphy will make good on his promise. The Rockies are one of a handful or two of contenders that ought to make serious inquiries on Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, although there’s little question the Fish would clamor for Rodgers in return. Though free agent Wilson Ramos seems a poor match, given the lack of a DH and his history of leg injuries, long-time division rival Yasmani Grandal would make for a fine target — if Monfort finds some money under the mattress. Robinson Chirinos or Martin Maldonado might be the right fit, balancing quality and cost, or the club could roll the dice a bit on Matt Wieters or Brian McCann to set up some platoon balance, with Murphy’s presence helping to diversify the risk. One intriguing option might be for the Rockies to send one of their underperforming relievers in a salary-swapping deal of some kind for a player such as Jason Castro or Alex Avila.

It’s debatable where the next-most-pressing need lies, in no small part because the remaining openings overlap. Let’s start by setting the stage: even after CarGo’s departure, the Rockies’ three best outfielders are all left-handed hitters (Blackmon, David Dahl, and Raimel Tapia). Ian Desmond has unfortunately been a deficient offensive performer since arriving, and is blocking a more potent bat at first base. And there’s a vacancy at second base, with the left-handed-hitting Ryan McMahon and righty swinging Garrett Hampson factoring strongly while Rodgers looms.

From my vantage point, it seems clear that Desmond ought to stuff his first baseman’s mitt into the back of his locker as a starting point. The club should not continue to put a marginal hitter in a spot that can easily (and cheaply) support much greater offensive output. Even if he doesn’t bounce back much at the plate, though, Desmond could be a sensible-enough fourth outfielder who’d limit the exposure of the existing top trio to left-handed pitching. Or, instead, Noel Cuevas or some outside acquisition — Cameron Maybin, say, or a buy-low trade candidate like Aaron Altherr, Domingo Santana, or Keon Broxton — could take the duty of right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder, leaving Desmond to serve as more of a true utility piece who could appear all over the diamond.

Moving Desmond off of first base would leave the Rockies free to pursue any number of bigger bats. C.J. Cron, for instance, is available right now with a meager projected salary of $5.2MM (potentially less if he clears waivers) after being dumped by the Rays. He out-hit all but two Rockies players in 2018. And the market is loaded with alternatives. Justin Smoak would make for a plausible trade target, while perhaps a wild Carlos Santana salary-swapping arrangement isn’t out of the question. Greg Bird of the Yankees may be out of time there but thrived as an amateur in Colorado. Justin Bour is a free agent now, along with fellow lefty swingers Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison as well as right-handed-hitting old friend Mark Reynolds.

It’s also possible that the Rockies could go without a true first baseman or a single, regular second bagger — particularly if they prefer to maintain greater defensive flexibility. Beyond Desmond, Hampson can play short or second, perhaps obviating the need for Pat Valaika or another glove-only infield reserve, and has also dabbled in the outfield. McMahon hasn’t yet appeared on the grass but does have experience at the 3-4-5 infield spots. Perhaps the club should seek yet more variability in targeting new players. Daniel Murphy would be an intriguing fit as a player who can line up at second or first while providing a lineup boost, or Neil Walker could do so at a lower rate of pay. (Brad Miller might be a minor-league-contract version of that concept.) Likewise, the righty-swinging Brian Dozier could be worth a look as a buy-low candidate who could see time in either spot on the right side of the infield. We’ve already heard of the Rockies’ interest in Marwin Gonzalez. He’d be a wonderful fit in this sort of a scheme, though he’s not going to come cheap. Josh Harrison might offer a more budget-friendly version of the same profile. Undesirable contracts (e.g., Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro) and potential cast-away arb-eligible players (e.g., Joe Panik, Devon Travis) could also provide avenues.

When the Rockies signed Desmond, the team said it had targeted a baseball player rather than a position, noting that his versatility would come in handy over the life of the contract. Using him more loosely now would free up an immense number of possibilities, opening the door to more offensive production (including through greater platoon usage) in a cost-efficient manner (not least of which because they’ll be selling free agent hitters on a chance to bat at altitude). It’d be great if the Rockies could figure a way to spend or finagle their way to a true regular at first, second, the outfield, and/or behind the dish. If not, though, they can use some flexible existing resources and combine them with versatile outside assets to make an intriguing supporting cast for the strong rotation and trio of star position players. Keeping up with the Dodgers will not be an easy feat, particularly with resource limitations, but there seem to be some creative avenues that make it imaginable.

2018-19 Contract Swap Candidates

By | at

As ever, quite a few teams have deals that they would now like to part with — whether because the player isn’t performing as hoped, the organization’s circumstances have changed, or both. In many such circumstances, it’s still possible to imagine deals coming together, with money management playing a key role in the arrangements.

This winter, in particular, it feels as if there are an abundance of possible contract-swapping situations. Accordingly, I decided to pull together a listing of the many players whose deals could conceivably be batted around in conversations that are driven in whole or in part by a desire to clear salary from a team’s books.

This list consists of (mostly) large contracts that (mostly) could plausibly be traded in the right circumstances. A player’s inclusion on this list does not necessarily mean that I believe his contract is under water. In some circumstances, that’s clearly not the case. In others, the deal is so far in the red that a deal is all but impossible to fathom. Regardless, I tried to identify the situations where salary-shaving ideas could help spur a deal, generally erring on the side of inclusion as to players who could conceivably be involved in some dollar-swapping trade scenarios.

Note, too, that I have not considered any arbitration-eligible players (e.g., Sonny Gray and Avisail Garcia) who could conceivably be utilized in certain deals that are heavily driven by financial considerations.

Catchers

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

Second Basemen

  • Robinson Cano, Mariners: $120MM through 2023 (full no-trade)
  • Rougned Odor, Rangers: $43.5MM through 2022 (includes option buyout)
  • Dee Gordon, Mariners: $27.5MM through 2020
  • Kolten Wong, Cardinals: $17.75MM through 2020 (includes option buyout)
  • Jason Kipnis, Indians: $17MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
  • Starlin Castro, Marlins: $12MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)

Shortstops

Third Basemen

  • Evan Longoria, Giants: $74.5MM through 2022 ($14.5MM paid by Rays; includes option buyout; $2MM assignment bonus)
  • Kyle Seager, Mariners: $56MM through 2021
  • Yulieski Gurriel, Astros: $18MM through 2020
  • Martin Prado, Marlins: $15MM through 2019
  • Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals: $14MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)
  • Todd Frazier, Mets: $9MM through 2019 ($500K assignment bonus)

Corner Outfielders

  • Jason Heyward, Cubs: $106MM through 2023 (opt out after 2019)
  • Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: $58.5MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
  • Dexter Fowler, Cardinals: $43.5MM through 2021 (full no-trade)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers: $42MM through 2020 (full no-trade)
  • Ian Desmond, Rockies: $40MM through 2021 (includes option buyout; $1MM assignment bonus)
  • Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks: $32.5MM through 2020
  • Jay Bruce, Mets: $26MM through 2020
  • Alex Gordon, Royals: $24MM through 2019 (includes option buyout; full no-trade)
  • Matt Kemp, Dodgers: $21.5MM through 2019
  • Kole Calhoun, Angels: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes option buyout)

Center Fielders

Starters

Relievers

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Braves’ intriguing assemblage of young talent has already proven capable of winning a surprise division title, but there’s still work to be done if GM Alex Anthopoulos is to preside over a perennial contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Outlook]

Braves fans rightly basked in the success of the club’s fun and youthful 2018 roster, which won the NL East and reached the postseason for the first time since 2013.  Of course, as the club’s front office acknowledged, being bumped from the tournament by the Dodgers also served as a reminder of the work left to be done. Overcoming the consecutive National League champs isn’t the only looming hurdle — within the division alone, the Nationals, Phillies, and Mets are all positioned to add additional pieces this winter to their already-talented rosters.

It’s unlikely the Atlanta organization will out-spend those organizations, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have as much or more free cash to work with this winter than almost any (excepting the Phillies) of its chief rivals. The Braves have started each of the past two seasons at around $120MM in payroll. That’s expected to move up, due in no small part to a ballpark-driven profit surge, though the upper boundary isn’t really clear and may also not be reached during the offseason. As things stand, the team is slated to pay something on the order of $75MM to less than half of its roster: Freddie Freeman ($21MM), Darren O’Day ($9MM), Julio Teheran ($11MM), Ender Inciarte ($5MM), and Tyler Flowers ($4MM) have guaranteed contracts. Kevin Gausman, Mike Foltynewicz, and Arodys Vizcaino project to cost about $20MM, while the club will surely spend a few million more to keep some of its other, less-expensive arb-eligible players.

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff just examined in full detail, it certainly seems as if the Braves will have something in the realm of $50MM to play with in 2019 payroll, if not even more, though that still probably comes with some caveats. For one thing, Anthopoulos has also repeatedly cautioned against expecting a monumental outlay in free agency. (For instance, he has said: “I think the one [signing] where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece….I don’t think we’re there yet right now.”) For another, the club may be wary of committing too much future money to lure free agents in a bid to improve the current roster. Binding up long-term payroll space, after all, could create downstream problems when it comes time to add new pieces and pay the young players who are currently forming such an intriguing core.

Wild spending won’t happen, but there’s flexibility aplenty. In theory, at least, the Braves can afford to acquire just about any player they want, and they can fit multiple significant salaries if they’re willing to forego the top-tier free agents. With so much near-term availability, one possible strategy would be to front-load any significant free-agent deals, thus increasing the value of their offer while keeping future balance sheets clear, much as the Cubs did when they signed Jon Lester. Meanwhile, the Braves have one of the most compelling treasure chests of trade assets in baseball. In particular, young arms abound, and the Braves will surely explore parting with some to condense a relatively expendable portion of their talent base into MLB assets.

So, where are the needs and how might they be addressed? While the roster holes are mostly on the position-player side, I’d actually argue that the pitching staff warrants just as much attention. That may raise some eyebrows at first glance, as the Braves received strong contributions from a variety of hurlers in both the rotation and bullpen in 2018. As a team, the Braves finished with the seventh-best ERA in baseball, but they were 11th in FIP, 16th in xFIP, and 18th by measure of SIERA. More importantly, virtually all of the team’s key pitchers outperformed their peripherals, some by quite a margin.

To be sure, the Braves do not lack for depth or youthful upside. But the club does not have the established, top-level performers on the mound that it does in its lineup. If Foltynewicz is something of an analog for Ozzie Albies — both have now turned in highly productive, albeit somewhat flawed, seasons — there’s no equivalent for Freddie Freeman (top-end star) or Ronald Acuna (phenom who has shown his ability plays over an extended stretch at the highest level).

That’s not to say that the Atlanta organization simply must have those kinds of players, though that’s arguably what they ought to be seeking. Sean Newcomb and Kevin Gausman both have interesting arsenals, but neither has established himself as anything approaching a rotation anchor. (Gausman did have a nice run upon landing in Atlanta, but his peripherals and broader track record tell a different story.) The Julio Teheran roller-coaster is by now well-documented. Mike Soroka has fascinating near and long-term potential — if healthy — while there’s plenty of talent but still plenty of uncertainty surrounding Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Kolby Allard, and the variety of other promising hurlers who have already debuted, have already made it onto the 40-man roster, or are coming up behind that group. Simply put, the Braves can’t dole out MLB rotation opportunities to all of these arms, particularly given that the team has flipped the switch to contending. And the 40-man pressures will only build, both as near-term improvements are made and as additional talent presses toward the majors.

Adding a veteran piece to replace the outgoing Anibal Sanchez, or simply to re-sign him, feels a bit underwhelming. Rather, there’s a strong case to be made that this organization ought to put on a full-court press to get elite, established talent in the rotation, if not also the bullpen. The Braves could easily afford free agent Patrick Corbin, if they are willing to do a longer deal in order to grab his relative youth. He’s also a target for quite a few other clubs, of course. They might prefer a shorter commitment to Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, or Charlie Morton, though it’s arguable that none of those hurlers has quite the upside the Braves ought to be seeking. That leaves the trade market for a big arm. The Braves should certainly also be heavily involved if the Indians get serious about dealing one of their three excellent starters — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer — or if the Mets are willing to send Noah Syndergaard to a division rival. Those players will all cost major talent.

My favorite pet theory, though, involves a match with the Diamondbacks on Zack Greinke, who is still owed $95.5MM in salary (plus a $2MM assignment bonus) but will only be on the books for three seasons. Greinke comes with a seemingly appealing blend of veteran gravitas and ongoing excellence; it’d be a splurge, but a measured one. Arizona would surely hang on to some of the obligation or include other talent to help balance things out; regardless, the Braves shouldn’t need to pony up their best young talent unless significant other pieces would come with him. That said, it is notable that the D’Backs have other assets that would make quite a lot of sense on the Braves roster, perhaps including outfielder David Peralta, or relievers Archie Bradley and Brad Boxberger.

Atlanta’s relief core isn’t an altogether different scenario from the rotation. Young southpaw A.J. Minter is a stud and Arodys Vizcaino still misses plenty of bats (at least when he’s healthy enough to pitch). Dan Winkler, Shane Carle, Jonny Venters, and Jesse Biddle were all useful MLB relievers, while Chad Sobotka showed promise. Darren O’Day has always been effective, so he’s a strong bounceback candidate. Several of the leftover rotation pieces could certainly check down into relief work.

Again, there’s no strict need, but there is opportunity. With short-term payroll space available, adding relief pitching is a great potential way to boost the team’s outlook while steering clear of long-term entanglements. Some fans will clamor for the return of Craig Kimbrel, but he figures to take a larger and longer contract than will be comfortable for the Braves. Veteran David Robertson is still performing at a high level and might be a reasonable risk, while Jeurys Familia presents a younger target with plenty of high-leverage experience. Adding a lefty is arguably not a priority, but Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are intriguing players to take a risk on; the latter may be particularly interested in the possibility of playing near his Florida home. The Braves also have just the right kind of assets to entice the Mariners to part with Edwin Diaz, the jewel of the relief market. If his price proves too lofty, Seattle’s Alex Colome might still present a worthwhile target, as might Mychal Givens of the Orioles. There are loads of other possibilities among both righties and lefties.

Even if the Braves don’t make major additions in either area of the pitching staff, they’ll likely find some veteran depth pieces that fit. It’s a much greater necessity, though, to address some of the openings on the position-player side of the roster. A major element of the Braves’ success in 2018 was the fact that both Nick Markakis and Kurt Suzuki exceeded expectations. Those veterans are now gone — Suzuki, at least, has already firmly moved on by signing with the Nats, while Markakis is still a free agent — leaving opening and opportunity in their wake.

Replacing Markakis is perhaps the one true imperative facing Anthopoulos this winter. The outfield has two clear regular assets: Acuna, an incredible talent who just won the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and center fielder Ender Inciarte, who is at most an average hitter but delivers strong value in the field and on the bases. While a return for Markakis perhaps profiles as a backup option, his uninspiring second half and relatively advanced age makes a new addition seem likely.

There has been plenty of debate over Atlanta’s ability and willingness to make a real run at Bryce Harper. Needless to say, he’d come with plenty of risk, but also the potential to be another core asset. It’s frankly difficult to know how plausible that outcome really is, but it seems fair to assume generally that bigger-budget clubs will have a greater tolerance for the long-term risks than will the Braves.  Otherwise, the top two corner pieces on the open market are Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley, and it’s easy to imagine the Braves coming away with either. A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, but that shouldn’t take him out of consideration entirely. There is a variety of cheaper, likely part-time players also available via free agency.

On the trade market, one-year rental targets include Nicholas Castellanos and Avisail Garcia, though both have their limitations and aren’t particularly cheap. It’s conceivable the club could line up some kind of contract swap arrangement, possibly involving Teheran and/or O’Day, with players such as Kole Calhoun, Wil Myers, and Dexter Fowler representing conceivable fits if the money is sorted in a favorable manner. There aren’t many intriguing, obviously available corner outfielders who come with affordable control rights. David Peralta and Kyle Schwarber could hold appeal, though it’s hardly imperative for their respective teams to move them. The Padres, Phillies, and Brewers all have multiple youthful outfielders who are likely available via trade, though it’s fair to wonder whether any is a sure enough commodity to be installed as a primary corner piece for the Braves.

If there’s a dream player that just might be available, it’s Mitch Haniger of the Mariners. He’ll turn 28 before entering his final pre-arb year, leaving four cheap seasons of prime years still to go. Haniger improved on his impressive first season in Seattle, slashing a robust .285/.366/.493 with 26 home runs in 683 plate appearances last year. The M’s, of course, are launching a roster tweaking offseason in which they won’t prioritize their ability to contend in 2019. With an eye on a quick rebound, the Seattle organization likely does not intend to move Haniger. But it’ll have to consider the possibility and will assuredly have its interest piqued by many of the Braves’ top prospects, many of whom could be ready to contribute by the time the Seattle club hopes to be gearing back up. There are loads of other interesting potential matches between these organizations, each of which are led by GMs with a flair for dramatic swaps. (As noted above, Diaz would look awfully nice anchoring the Braves pen.) And the Atlanta payroll flexibility could leave the club well-situated to absorb some bad contracts to help facilitate a move.

That’s just supposition, of course, but it’s the type of deal that Anthopoulos should and surely will explore in the outfield and other positions. Catcher, clearly, is another need, though it’s one that may well be filled by a less-than-splashy acquisition. With the sturdy Tyler Flowers still on hand, the Braves could seek a Suzuki replacement that will function in a timeshare. Of course, the prospect capital on hand also makes Atlanta a prime possible pursuer of Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, who staked his claim in 2018 as the top catcher in the sport. That’s the kind of major move that could firmly tilt the balance in the Braves’ favor, though indications are that the Marlins’ asking price is exceedingly painful at the moment.

Top free agent Yasmani Grandal could also be a target. Anthopoulos is plenty familiar with him from their mutual time with the Dodgers, and it’s possible there will be a chance to achieve value given Grandal’s notably tough postseason. After all, he has been an exceptional all-around regular season performer for some time now. Wilson Ramos is a possibility, though he’d probably fit better on an American League roster, while valued defender Martin Maldonado and the offensively proficient Robinson Chirinos are perhaps the best of the remaining open-market options.

The remainder of the position-player mix offers several conceivable avenues. One of the most interesting questions is to what extent the organization will at least consider making a move on the left side of the infield. We know, we know, Anthopoulos has repeatedly expressed confidence in Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo. It seems obvious he’d be comfortable rolling with them again at short and third, respectively, though it remains tantalizing to consider the alternatives. Manny Machado is about as unlikely a target as Harper, but can’t be ruled out entirely. Josh Donaldson would be a great player to take a short-term risk on, bringing quite a lot of upside while keeping the seat warm for rising prospect Austin Riley. Even Mike Moustakas could be a part of an infield rotation. In any event, adding a significant player at the hot corner would likely mean bumping Swanson and Camargo into joint duties at short and as reserves elsewhere. That could make for a strong overall unit. It may be a low-likelihood outcome, but an upgrade on the left side seems at least a possibility, particularly if Swanson or Riley is included in some kind of significant trade.

Finally, position-player depth stands as a general goal — though the route to achieving it will depend upon what other moves are made. Utilityman Charlie Culberson is in line to return after a productive (albeit questionably sustainable) 2018 season. Beyond that, there are two openings for reserve/platoon pieces. There’s probably an argument that the club ought to move on from Rio Ruiz if he can’t hold down a MLB roster spot, given the ever-present demand for more 40-man space, though he remains optionable and could be stashed at Triple-A as a depth piece. At a minimum, though, he’ll end up competing with some non-roster invitees and other existing assets in camp.

At least one bench spot will surely go to a player with significant outfield experience. Even if they add a true regular at one corner outfield spot, the Braves could hunt for a reserve who can spell Inciarte at times against lefties, as that has been a particular area of struggle for him. Adam Duvall has the right profile as a complementary piece, as he’s a good defender with power who could also be a worthwhile late-inning pinch hitter and defensive substitute, but his disappointing 2018 season makes his projected salary seem steep. Acuna’s ability to play center means the Braves have plenty of flexibility in what type of player they end up landing; the skillset of the primary corner piece (as discussed above) will surely be a factor in driving the decision-making on the reserve option.

Clearly, there’s abundant opportunity here for Anthopoulos to sort through. What’s most exciting for the Braves organization is the fact that the possibilities extend both to the near and long-term. The core is not only capable of winning now, but is still fully emerging as talent continues to surge upward. Meanwhile, Atlanta has ample open 2019 payroll as well as long-term contract capacity, since its only lengthy commitments on the books (Freeman, Inciarte) look to be firmly in the black. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the organization fails to remain competitive for some time to come, though there’s still plenty of variability remaining in the season to come and beyond. With the Braves looking to move from the realm of overflowing promise to that of perennial achievement, this offseason seems sure to present some highly consequential decisions to Anthopoulos and company.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top