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11 Readily Available Relievers For Teams Needing Bullpen Help

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It’s true every season that clubs need bullpen help, but the desperation for quality relief help seems more palpable this season than in years past. Perhaps it’s because one of the best closers in baseball history is still sitting unsigned in late May, which only leads to more fan outcry for bullpen help and more of a spotlight to be placed on teams that are struggling in this regard.

I got more than a few questions about what’s out there in terms of readily available bullpen help in yesterday’s MLBTR chat. While the general answer can be snarkily summed up in brief fashion (“not much!“), it’s also true that the landscape of available arms is in a constant state of change as players opt out of deals, or are designated for assignment/released. So while we all know that Craig Kimbrel is available for the highest bidder, here’s a look at a handful of newly available arms that have hit the market in the past 10 days or so.

Free Agents (or soon-to-be free agents):

Luke Gregerson (released by Cardinals)

  • Why he was cut loose: Hamstring and shoulder injuries limited Gregerson to just 18 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2018, and he hasn’t been effective in that time. Gregerson posted a 7.36 ERA with a 14-to-7 K/BB ratio and 25 hits allowed (including a pair of homers) in parts of two seasons with the Cards, and his fastball/sinker combo dipped to 86.4 mph and 87.4 mph, respectively, in this year’s tiny sample.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Prior to signing with the Cards, Gregerson was a bullpen workhorse. From 2009-17 he averaged 69 appearances and 67 innings per season, logging a collective 3.02 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate. That grounder rate topped 60 percent in both 2015 and 2016, and he averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016-17 with Houston.

Addison Reed (released by Twins)

  • Why he was cut loose: Reed’s time with the Twins started well, but his velocity dipped early last summer and he landed on the shelf with triceps soreness and an elbow impingement. A sprained thumb in his non-pitching hand has kept him on the shelf all season to date, and he was reportedly throwing 88-89 mph in recent rehab outings. For context, his average heater in 2017 was 92.3 mph. Reed logged a 4.50 ERA in 56 innings last season, but his ERA over his final 30 games with Minnesota was 6.44. He allowed four homers and a total of eight runs in five Triple-A rehab innings this year.
  • Why he could hold appeal: As with Gregerson, Reed’s appeal is all in his track record. He had a career 3.40 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 at the time he signed with the Twins, including a superb 2015-17 run in which he notched a 2.66 ERA with 218 strikeouts against just 34 unintentional walks in 209 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 30 until December, so unlike the other free agents listed here, he still has age on his side. One year ago, Reed had a 2.49 ERA and 27-to-7 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings with the Twins.

Carlos Torres

  • Why he was cut loose: Torres opted out of a minor league deal after a solid showing in Triple-A, hopeful of finding an easier path to the Majors than he faced in San Diego.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Torres pitched to a 2.49 ERA with a 23-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate with Triple-A El Paso to open the season. From 2012-17, he recorded  a 3.73 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in a total of 449 innings between the Rockies, Mets and Brewers. During that time, he averaged 75 innings per season. Torres is 36 and struggled in a brief 9 2/3 innings with the Nats last year, though he was very effective for their Triple-A team.

Jonny Venters

  • Why he was cut loose: Venters’ 2018 comeback was a feelgood story, but he was rocked for nine runs on nine hits and eight walks in 4 2/3 innings with the Braves this season. Atlanta’s bullpen has been a revolving door this season, and keeping the struggling Venters aboard limited the club’s flexibility.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Venters’ sinker still checked in at a healthy average of 93.6 mph in 2019, and he’s a year removed from holding left-handed opponents to a comically bad .133/.200/.200 batting line through 66 plate appearances. Even through this season’s struggles, his grounder rate checked in at 50 percent, and it was nearly 70 percent last year.

Dan Jennings (opted for free agency after being DFA’ed by Nationals)

  • Why he was cut loose: Jennings struggled in Spring Training with the Angels and didn’t fare any better with the Nats. He walked seven batters (two intentional), hit another and threw a wild pitch in his 4 2/3 innings with Washington. As with the Braves and Mariners, the Nationals’ bullpen has been rife with turnover, and it seems that nearly every member of those clubs’ relief units is on a short leash.
  • Why he could hold appeal: In parts of seven MLB seasons prior to 2019, Jennings never logged an ERA of 4.00 or higher, and he was solid with the Brewers in 2018 (3.22 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 56.1 percent ground-ball rate). He’s not a prolific strikeout arm but has typically been a ground-ball machine who can hold his own against lefties and righties alike (2018 struggles against righties notwithstanding). His velocity held steady in 2019 as well.

DFA Limbo:

Ryan Garton (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: The Mariners have used 22 different relievers already in 2019. (Heck, four of them are listed in this section!) Garton’s selection to the big league roster, like many of the names being cycled through the Seattle ’pen, seemed almost destined to be short. He allowed four runs in three innings and was designated when the Mariners signed Anthony Bass.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Garton has pitched reasonably well in Triple-A over the past two seasons, though his FIP is roughly a full run higher than the 3.28 ERA. Still, Garton has fanned 71 hitters in 68 2/3 Triple-A frames in that time. He walked too many in 2018, but he has some experience, some Triple-A success and a minor league option remaining. There’s a solid chance Garton clears waivers, but less intriguing guys have been claimed in the past.

Neil Ramirez (DFA by Indians)

  • Why he was cut loose: Surrendering five home runs and issuing nine walks in 16 1/3 innings isn’t a great way to hold onto a roster spot, and Ramirez is out of minor league options, which put the Indians in a particularly tough spot. He’s never enjoyed consistent success at the MLB level, but teams continue to be intrigued by his raw ability.
  • Why he could hold appeal: The fact that six teams have given Ramirez a big league look as he’s struggled to a 5.70 ERA in 113 2/3 innings over the past four seasons speaks both to his potential upside and his frustrating level of inconsistency. Ramirez averages 95 mph on his heater and has turned in a 15 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. His fastball spin is elite, and his curveball spin isn’t far behind. If anyone could coax some consistency out of him, he’d be controlled through 2020.

Yefry Ramirez (DFA by Orioles)

  • Why he was cut loose: Ramirez has been more of a starter than a reliever, but what the heck, let’s add him here anyway. The 25-year-old has an ERA north of 6.00 and 5.4 BB/9 over the past two seasons in the Majors, but it’s frankly still a bit surprising to see the Orioles cut him loose not 24 hours after their manager lamented a lack of rotation depth. The front office has apparently seen enough of Ramirez, though.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Ramirez has a 3.40 ERA and a 96-to-31 K/BB ratio in 90 Triple-A innings. He averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball and has a 10.7 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to 73 punchouts in 75 2/3 innings working primarily as a starter in the Majors. It’d be interesting to see what Ramirez could do in shorter stints; in 19 career relief frames, opponents have batted .206/.320/.270 against him. His slider was an effective pitch for him in 2018 while his changeup has gotten good results in 2019. He’s 25 years old and has a minor league option remaining.

Zac Rosscup (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Rosscup allowed 14 walks in 14 innings of work as the Mariners’ apparent plan to dramatically increase his slider usage — he ranks fifth among MLB pitchers in slider percentage (min. 10 IP) — didn’t pay off as hoped. He’s out of minor league options, so the Mariners had no way to send him down to try to rediscover last year’s solid control (3.2 BB/9).
  • Why he could hold appeal: In his last 25 1/3 big league innings, Rosscup has racked up 40 strikeouts with an 18.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a 32.6 percent opponents’ chase rate. He falls behind hitters far too often. His slider hasn’t been as effective this season, but in 2018 he threw the pitch 101 times and generated 30 swinging strikes. He’s controllable through 2021.

Nick Rumbelow (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Rumbelow has been injured more than he’s been healthy over the past few seasons, and while he’s recovered from 2015 Tommy John surgery and a 2018 neck injury now, the results weren’t there for him in Triple-A. He’s allowed 16 earned runs on 25 hits and 10 walks with 11 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Rumbelow will sit 93-94 mph with his fastball and, prior to 2019, had experienced a good bit of success when healthy enough to take the ball in Triple-A. He carried a 2.95 ERA and a 131-to-34 K/BB ratio in 116 career Triple-A innings into the season.

Mike Wright (DFA by Mariners)

  • Why he was cut loose: Wright has had ample big league time in each of the past four big league seasons but has an ERA north of 6.00 to show for it. The Mariners traded a struggling low-level infielder to acquire him, hoping they could help him tap into his potential, but Wright lasted only 11 innings (and 11 earned runs) before being designated for assignment. Like many DFA casualties, he’s out of minor league options.
  • Why he could hold appeal: Both the Orioles and Mariners have seen fit to give Wright a shot at the MLB level, perhaps in part because he’s been a solid starter through nearly 400 innings (70 starts, one relief appearance) of Triple-A ball in his professional career.

It’s easy to be dismissive of the majority of the names on any list like this, but that was also the case when the likes of Kirby Yates and Brad Hand were cut loose a few years ago. Teams are constantly mining the scrap heap, and even the smallest pickup can prove to be consequential down the line.

12 Corner Outfield Trade Targets For The Indians

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The Indians had a 94.6% chance of making the playoffs prior to the season, according to FanGraphs.  The Twins looked like an 85-win team, the Indians projected at 97, and the other 60% of the division is rebuilding.  The Twins, however, have flipped the script with a 32-16 start through Tuesday’s games.  They hold a 6.5 game lead over Cleveland.  But a Wild Card spot is a viable option for the Indians as well, and they still hold a 54.3% shot at the postseason.

The Indians have averaged just 3.96 runs per game, 12th in the AL and nestled between non-contenders.  After the club designated Carlos Gonzalez for assignment today, Zack Meisel of The Athletic wrote, “The state of the Indians’ lineup suggests a player can be hitting cleanup one day and be unemployed the next.”  Indeed, CarGo had started eight of the Indians’ last ten games, typically as the left fielder.

Gonzalez will be replaced internally for the foreseeable future, with 24-year-old rookie Oscar Mercado in line for an extended look.  The speedy Mercado, a Cardinals second round draft pick out of high school as a shortstop in 2013, was quietly acquired at last year’s trade deadline.  Mercado returned to the edge of the prospect radar after 2017, a season in which he blossomed playing center field every day and had his best offensive year.  Even at that point, though, he profiled as an extra outfielder in the Majors.  Mercado’s bat wasn’t terribly impressive at Triple-A in 2018, but he tweaked his swing in the offseason, raked in spring training, and hammered the ball in 30 games at Triple-A.  He’s interesting enough to merit regular playing time for the next couple of months, and his right-handed bat could be just what the Indians need in left field.  The Indians have veteran center fielder Leonys Martin likely to be pushed by former first rounder Bradley Zimmer in the near future, while Jordan Luplow has settled in as the team’s right fielder and has the minor league track record to stick.

We’ll know much more about this arrangement by mid-July, and it’s possible Mercado and/or Luplow won’t continue hitting at the Major League level.  While the Indians have some other paths to improving their offense, this post will explore corner outfield trade targets they may consider if internal options struggle.

Current Left Fielders

  • Domingo Santana, Mariners (controllable through 2021) – Santana has dropped off after a fast start, and the Mariners look less like a contender.  Still, he was a nice find for the club and I don’t think they’ll be eager to move him.
  • Alex Gordon, Royals (2019) – Given Gordon’s offensive renaissance, he would be a nifty veteran rental for Cleveland.  However, he has 10-and-5 rights and made it clear he doesn’t want to leave Kansas City.  Plus, Gordon is earning $20MM this year and would get a $4MM assignment bonus upon a trade.
  • Clint Frazier, Yankees (2023) – Frazier, the Indians’ first-round pick in 2013, was a key piece along with Justus Sheffield in Cleveland’s 2016 deadline deal for Andrew Miller.  Frazier has filled in admirably for the Yankees this year after their litany of injuries, but the club may not have much playing time for him once Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return.  He could become trade bait for New York, and it would be fascinating if he were to return to the organization that drafted him.  Still, the Yankees may be reluctant to help a possible playoff opponent, and they can always send Frazier to Triple-A if they truly cannot find at-bats for him.
  • Adam Duvall, Braves (2021) – The Braves acquired Duvall from the Reds last summer and despite tendering him a contract in the offseason, did not put him on the Opening Day roster.  Duvall showed the ability to serve as a low on-base, high power left fielder with the Reds from 2016-17, and it wouldn’t take much for the Indians to add him.  The 30-year-old has mashed 15 home runs in 188 Triple-A plate appearances so far this year.
  • Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks (2020) – The Diamondbacks signed Tomas out of Cuba in December 2014 to a six-year, $68.5MM deal.  Though he smacked 31 home runs in his sophomore season, the D’Backs were never able to find a good home for him defensively.  Tomas hasn’t seen Major League time since 2017, but he’s hit 14 home runs in 178 plate appearances at Triple-A this year.  Jake Bauers has served as the Indians’ primary DH of late, but he could slide into left field if the team were to acquire a player like Tomas.  The Diamondbacks would have to pick up the vast majority of Tomas’ contract to move him.

Current Right Fielders

  • Yasiel Puig, Reds (2019) – Puig would be an excellent rental for the Indians, except for the fact that he hasn’t hit at all this year.  He’s also earning $9.7MM.  If Puig does return to form as an above average bat over the next few months, I could see him on the Indians’ radar.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (2019) – Castellanos has been about league average with the bat this year after a superb 130 wRC+ season in 2018.  Like Puig, he’s headed for free agency after the season and is earning about $10MM.  Castellanos isn’t much of a defender, but assuming the Tigers don’t have any hang-ups about trading a rental within the division, he’s a great fit for Cleveland.
  • Adam Eaton, Nationals (2021) – Eaton is less than ideal as a left-handed hitter, but despite his slow start he could be a useful addition for the Indians.
  • Mitch Haniger, Mariners (2022) – Haniger would be a major prize for a team like the Indians, and he bats right-handed to boot, but Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto would seek a king’s ransom if he even considers a trade.  Seattle won’t be in any rush to move Haniger.
  • Trey Mancini, Orioles (2022) – Mancini is one of very few bright spots on the Orioles this year, and trading the 27-year-old might not sit well with some fans, but it could be an avenue for Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias to bolster his prospect stash.  Like Haniger, he’d be an attractive, controllable fit for the Indians.
  • Jorge Soler, Royals (2021) – Soler has never managed to play a full season in the Majors, but he’s been healthy and has hit for power this year.  I’m guessing the Royals are not eager to deal him currently.
  • Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2024) – O’Neill is currently playing at Triple-A, though he’s been out since Saturday with an undisclosed injury.  The 23-year-old has massive power from the right side and plus defense in the corners, though he’s struck out a ton in his 181 big league plate appearances.  The Cardinals have already relegated a starting-caliber player to the bench in Harrison Bader, so O’Neill has an even tougher path to playing time.  Longer-term, Marcell Ozuna is slated for free agency after the season and Jose Martinez could land elsewhere, so O’Neill may yet be part of the Cardinals’ future.  He’s still a player about which the Indians could inquire.

It’s also worth considering that several teams that are contending now may not be contending in a few months.  The Rangers, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres, and Athletics have some interesting corner outfield bats that might become considerations for the Indians.  I also entertained the possibility of including the Cubs’ Ian Happ on this list, though the 24-year-old has struggled in 42 Triple-A games.

The Ten Most Expensive One-Year Free Agent Relievers

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Many different types of free agents end up receiving relatively expensive, one-year deals. Some are looking for the right opportunity to earn a nice single-season paycheck while (hopefully) building up to a multi-year deal in the ensuing winter. Others settle for a solo campaign after trying and failing to find more. Some are younger players who have enough upside to draw a significant offer despite a rough platform campaign. Others are steady veterans that are being paid more for their floor than their ceiling. All such players necessarily receive only a limited commitment from their new teams; those that end up with non-contenders must be prepared for a mid-season scramble for new lodging in the event of a swap.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, we’re looking at how things are shaping up for the highest-paid rental free agents. We already performed this exercise for position players. and for starting pitchers. Now, we’ll take a look at the ten most expensive one-year relief pitchers:

Cody Allen, Angels, $8.5MM: Allen jumped right into the closer’s role for the Halos, but hasn’t bounced back as hoped. Instead, his struggles have deepened. Allen’s 4.80 ERA through 15 innings is actually rather deceptive. He is allowing a walk an inning along with 2.40 homers per nine. His average fastball velocity has fallen off by nearly two mph, with his swinging-strike rate dipping all the way down to 9.5%. Allen has turned in five-straight scoreless appearances, but has issued a free pass in every one of those outings.

Trevor Rosenthal, Nationals, $7MM: The issues are even deeper for Rosenthal, who is trying to find his way on the mound during an expansive rehab assignment. Despite showing ample arm strength, the occasionally wild reliever has completely lost the zone. In seven MLB appearances, Rosenthal recorded as many walks as outs (nine apiece), uncorked five wild pitches, and hit three batters. Needless to say, this investment has not turned out as hoped.

Greg Holland, Diamondbacks, $3.25MM: It has been a roller coaster ride in recent years for Holland, who reestablished himself late last year with the Nats but has still surprised with his strong early showing. Through 16 innings, he owns a 1.69 ERA with 12.4 K/9 and 5.6 BB/9 and has closed out eight games for the Snakes. There’s quite possibly some regression in store, with opposing hitters batting under .200 on balls in play, but Holland looks to be quite a nice value.

Brad Brach, Cubs, $3MM: Though he’s through 19 2/3 innings of 2.75 ERA pitching, there’s reason for concern with Brach’s opening to the year. He has not yet allowed a home run, which is both a feather in his cap and a sign of some good fortune. Worryingly, he has allowed 19 walks to go with his twenty strikeouts. He has also seen his swinging-strike rate drop to 10.1% and his chase rate drop to 25.7% — both well below his career mean. Brach isn’t having trouble putting the ball in the zone when he wants to, as he carries a 64.7% first-strike rate, but it seems opposing hitters may be seeing him better than they have in the past.

Jake Diekman, Royals, $2.75MM: Walks have always been a big part of Diekman’s game, so it’s not surprising to see him dishing them at over four per nine innings. But he’s also getting lots of strikeouts. To this point, Diekman carries a 24.4% K%-BB%, the best mark of his career, on a personal-high 15.4% swinging-strike rate. Ramped-up slider usage is paying dividends. Diekman carries a 3.15 ERA through twenty frames and is looking like a nice trade deadline chip.

Shawn Kelley, Rangers, $2.75MM: This signing is paying dividends, as the 35-year-old carries a 1.80 ERA in 15 frames. He has regained some lost velocity and issued just one walk on the year. That said, there are some areas of concern. Home runs remain a problem (1.80 per nine). Kelley is only generating swings and misses at about 2/3 of his former capacity. And the .189 BABIP-against and 100% strand rate he’s carrying are bound to rise.

Oliver Perez, Indians, $2.5MM: He isn’t getting any younger, but Perez has found new baseball life in Cleveland. He hasn’t been quite as excellent this year as he was in a bounceback 2018, but the 38-year-old has still maintained an excellent combination of 13.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 to open the new year. He has actually raised his swinging-strike rate yet further to a lofty 16.7%. The club is using him judiciously, with short outings focused mostly on lefty batters, but is getting what it bargained for.

David Phelps, Blue Jays, $2.5MM: The Jays knew they’d have to nurse Phelps back to health before getting him on the field, as he underwent Tommy John surgery just before the start of the 2018 season. He has yet to launch a rehab assignment, and it has been a while since we’ve seen a meaningful update on his status, but there’s no indication that he won’t be ready to go at some point in the relatively near future. That’s just what the Toronto organization needs Phelps to do if it is to utilize him as a summer trade chip.

Sergio Romo, Marlins, $2.5MM: Another potential trade candidate with an asterisk, the veteran has struggled to begin the year for Miami. He’s carrying a 5.06 ERA in 16 innings, with 9.6 K/9 but also an uncharacteristic 5.6 BB/9 and 1.69 HR/9. Interestingly, the hurler who once leaned on his slider more than anyone has dropped its usage below 50% for the first time in a long time even as the rest of the game increasingly leans on that pitch. Romo has increasingly gone to a change-up. He’s getting lots of chases out of the zone (39.4%) and a solid volume of swinging strikes (13.7%) but has obviously produced less-than-inspiring overall results. Whether Romo can tune up his pitch mix and return to his longstanding effectiveness remains to be seen.

Adam Warren, Padres, $2.5MM: It made eminent sense for the Friars to nab Warren after spending big on Manny Machado, but he hasn’t been in great form early. True, his 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is just fine. But Warren is giving up way too many walks (4.9 per nine) and home runs (2.66 per nine). He’s getting by on unsustainable BABIP-against (.160) and strand rate (100%) figures.

The 10 Most Expensive One-Year Free Agent Starters

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Many different types of free agents end up receiving relatively expensive, one-year deals. Some are looking for the right opportunity to earn a nice single-season paycheck while (hopefully) building up to a multi-year deal in the ensuing winter. Others settle for a solo campaign after trying and failing to find more. Some are younger players who have enough upside to draw a significant offer despite a rough platform campaign. Others are steady veterans that are being paid more for their floor than their ceiling. All such players necessarily receive only a limited commitment from their new teams; those that end up with non-contenders must be prepared for a mid-season scramble for new lodging in the event of a swap.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, we’re looking at how things are shaping up for the highest-paid rental free agents. We already performed this exercise for position players. Now, we’ll take a look at the ten most expensive one-year starters (and, later, relievers):

Matt Harvey, Angels, $11MM: The priciest arm on this list, Harvey hasn’t come through as the Halos hoped. He’s averaging just five frames per outing in nine starts and has limped to a 6.35 ERA. Though his velocity is fine, Harvey isn’t getting many swings and misses (9.7% swinging-strike rate) and has given up a lot of loud contact (40.6% hard contact vs. only a 9.8% soft contact rate). He’s likely performing better than his results, but Harvey is showing no signs of returning to anything approaching his former performance levels at thirty years of age.

Trevor Cahill, Angels, $9MM: I’ll be honest, I thought this deal would turn out well for the team. Cahill has been good when healthy and seemed to be an interesting risk. Unfortunately, he has managed only 44 innings of 6.95 ERA pitching over nine starts. Like several other struggling hurlers on this, he has been ravaged by the long ball, allowing nearly one every three innings.

CC Sabathia, Yankees, $8MM: An offseason heart procedure seemed ominous, but the outcomes have been sparkling since since Sabatahia returned to the hill. He’s now through 36 1/3 innings of sub-3.00 ERA pitching to open the year. Unfortunately, it may only be a matter of time before opposing hitters expose his act. Sabathia carries only 6.7 K/9 go with 3.7 BB/9 and has been torched for 2.23 home runs per regulation game. His FIP number is over twice his ERA.

Derek Holland, Giants, $7MM: Another hurler that settled for a single season despite having a case for multiple years, Holland ended up being knocked to the bullpen after seven starts. That move sparked a clubhouse flare-up reflective of the club’s rough opening stretch to the season. Holland has improved his strikeout rate but otherwise added walks and dingers, leading to an unsightly 7.17 ERA in 37 2/3 innings. While the Giants never expected world-beating results from Holland, the overall run of events is about the opposite of what they hoped for.

Tyson Ross, Tigers, $5.75MM: Elbow nerve issues have put Ross on the shelf. Perhaps they also help explain the rough start he had authored. Through 35 1/3 innings in seven starts, the veteran hurler carries a 6.11 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. While he has moved back toward his former strengths with a sturdy 51.3% groundball rate, he’s also permitting home runs at a 22.6% HR/FB clip.

Wade Miley, Astros, $4.5MM: Many were surprised to see the Houston organization settle for Miley, but it made sense to go with a short-term hurler of this sort with so much upper-level talent in the system. Plus, Miley had an odd but legitimately interesting 2018 showing. He hasn’t maintained quite the home run-suppression rates he did last year, but is still getting a good number of grounders and turning in quality results despite underwhelming K/BB numbers (15.9% K rate vs. 5.6% BB rate).

Marco Estrada, Athletics, $4MM: The Oakland org was well aware of Estrada’s back issues when it signed him. Unfortunately, the risk hasn’t paid off, as he has made only five starts and struggled through 23 2/3 innings. Worryingly, ERA estimators (including FIP, xFIP, and SIERA) take even dimmer views of Estrada’s showing to date than his 6.85 ERA suggests. He managed only an 11:8 K/BB ratio and 7.6% swinging-strike rate (his lowest since his brief 2008 debut) before hitting the IL.

Martin Perez, Twins, $3.5MM: This signing looks like the best one on the list to this point. It seems the Minnesota org had good reason to believe it could unlock something from Perez, who is throwing harder (at or above 95 mph with both fastballs) and exhibiting much more swing and miss (11.4% swinging-strike rate) than ever before. He has used a newfound cutter to devastating effect. Best of all for the Twins, the deal includes a club option for 2020.

Matt Shoemaker, Blue Jays, $3.5MM: It seemed that Shoemaker was authoring a nice bounceback tale in Toronto. Through five starts, he worked to a 1.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 51.4% groundball rate. There was some regression in store, to be sure, but generally it seemed as if he had finally turned the corner after some injury-riddled campaigns in Los Angeles. While arm health wasn’t an issue, a freak knee injury left the 32-year-old with a torn ACL and back on the IL for the remainder of the year.

Clay Buchholz, Blue Jays, $3MM: This one isn’t working out for the Jays either. After opening the year on the injured list, Buchholz made it through only five starts before he was diagnosed with a grade 2 shoulder strain. And he hasn’t been good when on the hill, either, with a 6.57 ERA in 24 2/3 frames.

Poll: Anthony Rendon’s Future

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Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has been among the majors’ most valuable players since his first full season, 2014, having recorded the league’s eighth-highest fWAR (26.4). The 28-year-old is now enjoying another magnificent campaign, one that may end with career-best offensive numbers, as he has slashed .331/.416/.669 (181 wRC+) with eight home runs in 137 plate appearances. At 19-27, the Nationals haven’t been able to capitalize on Rendon’s excellence this season – nor have they even won a playoff series during his career – and time may be running out for the club to take advantage of his presence.

Rendon is one of the game’s premier impending free agents, a player who’s likely on a collision course with a nine-figure payday over the next few months, and is far from certain to remain in Washington. Rendon has expressed interest in continuing with the Nationals, who have made an effort to extend him, but the team hasn’t been able to close the gap with the Boras Corporation client thus far. With Rendon still not under contract beyond this season and the July 31 trade deadline inching closer, the Nationals may have to decide soon whether to keep the homegrown star or deal him.

If the Nationals rebound from their shaky start and emerge as contenders over the next two months, chances are they won’t consider moving an unsigned Rendon. Otherwise, should the Nats’ woes continue, general manager Mike Rizzo could think about parting with him. The executive was in a similar position last year with Bryce Harper, whom he elected not to give up during the summer even though Washington was treading water and the outfielder was approaching free agency. Rizzo spurned interest from the Astros, Indians and Dodgers (and perhaps other unreported teams), in part because he wanted to continue working toward a long-term deal with Harper. In the end, though, the Nationals neither prevented Harper from testing the market – where he secured the largest contract ever for a free agent (13 years, $330MM) – nor exiting D.C.

Harper joined the division-rival Phillies this past offseason and all the Nationals got for their trouble was a draft pick after the fourth round, given that they exceeded the luxury tax in 2018 and he rejected their qualifying offer. This time, if the Nationals retain Rendon through the season and he walks in free agency in lieu of accepting a QO, they’re likely to receive a more appealing pick (a selection after Competitive Balance Round B). While the Nationals are only $3MM-plus under the $206MM tax threshold, ownership does not want to surpass that mark this season.

Whether draft compensation for Rendon’s departure would be worth more than the package the Nats would acquire for him in a trade is something Rizzo will have to determine. But it’s possible Rendon would be to this season’s deadline what Manny Machado was to last year’s. Machado’s then-team, the Orioles, oversaw a bidding war for the impending free agent and wound up accepting an offer of five young players from the Dodgers. Ideally for the Nationals, they’ll do what the Orioles couldn’t and lock up their top position player in advance of the deadline. If not, though, Rizzo may have an important choice to make by then.

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Nationals do if they don't extend Rendon?
Trade him by the deadline if they're not in contention 79.80% (5,701 votes)
Keep him through the season no matter what 20.20% (1,443 votes)
Total Votes: 7,144

The Dozen Most Expensive One-Year Free Agent Hitters

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Many different types of free agents end up receiving relatively expensive, one-year deals. Some are looking for the right opportunity to earn a nice single-season paycheck while (hopefully) building up to a multi-year deal in the ensuing winter. Others settle for a solo campaign after trying and failing to find more. Some are younger players who have enough upside to draw a significant offer despite a rough platform campaign. Others are steady veterans that are being paid more for their floor than their ceiling. All such players necessarily receive only a limited commitment from their new teams; those that end up with non-contenders must be prepared for a mid-season scramble for new lodging in the event of a swap.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, let’s look at how things are shaping up for the dozen highest-paid rental free agent position players, each of whom earned over $5MM for his services in 2019.

Josh Donaldson, Braves, $23MM: It took a big salary to land the former MVP, but this situation is playing out as the Braves envisioned. Thus far, a healthy Donaldson (40 games played) has provided good value (127 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR) and typically fiery leadership. Austin Riley’s ascent only sweetens the pot. He’ll be an option at third if Donaldson gets hurt and the Braves will get a good feel for whether he’s ready to take over full-time next year — with Donaldson potentially declining a qualifying offer and delivering some draft compensation on his way out the door.

Yasmani Grandal, Brewers, $18.25MM: The most surprising player to settle for a one-year pact was this veteran backstop, who has been a consistently stellar overall performer for some time. He reportedly turned down much longer, more lucrative overall deals that he felt would not have compensated him sufficiently for his single-season value. The Brewers managed to sneak in and get a very appealing contract that is paying off so far. Grandal continues to grade as a strong pitch framer while providing top-line offensive output for a catcher, with a .263/.358/.467 batting line through 162 plate appearances to begin the season.

Nelson Cruz, Twins, $14.3MM: Cruz isn’t exactly driving the bus in Minny, where a host of other players are performing at unexpectedly lofty levels, but the respected veteran is earning his keep. Though 144 plate appearances, Cruz carries a .270/.354/.508 slash with seven home runs. He just hit the injured list with a wrist injury, but the hope is it’ll be a brief respite.

Mike Moustakas, Brewers, $10MM: It’s hard to be a total bargain at this price, but the Milwaukee organization is getting everything it hoped for out of Moose. He’s hitting at a 126 wRC+ clip and held down the fort well enough at second base before shifting back to his native hot corner.

Brian Dozier, Nationals, $9MM: Though he’s walking in nearly a dozen of every hundred plate appearances, Dozier carries an anemic .187 batting average and hasn’t yet rediscovered his pop. There’s still time for a turnaround, but it’s not a promising start for the second bagger, who was not that long ago a star-level performer.

Jonathan Schoop, Twins, $7.5MM: The veteran second baseman has been a nice buy thus far for the Twins, putting up a strong 109 wRC+ after a rough 2018 season. There’ll likely always be some ups and downs for a player that draws so few walks, but Schoop has been a productive player when he has been at or above the .300 BABIP and .200 ISO lines. He’s doing that so far.

Steve Pearce, Red Sox, $6.25MM: Though his career has been filled with peaks and valleys, we’ve never seen anything like this from Pearce. Typically, he’s an excellent hitter when he’s able to stay on the field. Pearce opened the year on the IL with a calf injury but hasn’t been himself since returning. Through 69 plate appearances, he owns a not-so-nice .111/.176/.143 batting line without a single long ball.

Nick Markakis, Braves, $6MM: What is there to say at this point? It looked like a nice price when the Braves coaxed the veteran back, though it was questionable whether it really made sense to hand him everyday time in right field to open the season. Markakis has done more than keep the seat warm for younger options or mid-season acquisitions; he’s slashing .299/.393/.461. As was the case last year, there are some sustainability questions — different ones this time around. Markakis carries a robust 14.2% walk rate against only a 10.9% strikeout rate and is making tons of hard contact, but he’s also sporting a 2.54 GB/FB rate that is by gar the highest in his career.

Robinson Chirinos, Astros, $5.75MM: This one came as something of a surprise, as it had seemed the Houston organization would try for a big improvement behind the dish. Interestingly, the Rangers paid Chirinos $1MM rather than exercising a $4.5MM club option. The cross-Texas change has worked out well for Chirinos and the ’Stros, as he’s off to a .268/.398/.546 start to the year with six home runs and an appealing combination of 19 walks and thirty strikeouts. Chirinos has shown power and plate discipline before, but never to quite this extent at the same time. He’s also trending up in the framing department after a being graded harshly in that area last year.

Billy Hamilton, Royals, $5.25MM: If the Royals were expecting something different in kind from what they’ve received from Hamilton, they probably shouldn’t have. He’s still miscast as a near-everyday option in the outfield, as his ongoing struggles with the bat (.224/.305/.284) confirm yet again. Hamilton is now carrying a sub-70 wRC+ for the third consecutive season. He’s also still providing value on the bases and contributing quality glovework, though metrics now view him more as very good than exceptional in those areas.

Jordy Mercer, Tigers, $5.25MM: Injuries have hampered the veteran shortstop early on and he’s not hitting when healthy. There was never much hope that he’d suddenly find a new gear with the bat at 32 years of age, but the Detroit club surely hoped for more than a .206/.275/.317 output. It’s quite a small sample, but both DRS and UZR see cause for concern also with Mercer’s glovework.

Freddy Galvis, Blue Jays, $5MM: To this point, the Blue Jays have gotten better value on their slightly lesser investment in the younger Galvis than the Tigers have in Mercer. That said, Galvis has fallen back to earth after a hot start and is currently sitting at approximately league-average overall offensive production. Toronto can’t be displeased, since the move was designed to fill in the gap for a single season.

Someone Should (Finally) Put Andrew Cashner In Their Bullpen

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Back in 2017, Andrew Cashner posted a solid 3.40 ERA in 28 starts and parlayed that into a two-year, $16MM deal in Baltimore despite the fact that he ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate in the season leading up to free agency. The contract almost seemed destined to be a misstep, and his 2018 campaign indeed looked regrettable. Cashner logged a 5.29 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, a career-high 1.49 HR/9 and a career-low 40.4 percent ground-ball rate. His once blazing fastball checked in at a pedestrian average of 92.4 mph.

Andrew Cashner

On the heels of that showing, the new Orioles front office, led by former Astros assistant GM Mike Elias, was understandably interested in clearing Cashner’s salary off its books. Cashner, after all, has a $10MM vesting option for the 2020 season that kicks in if he reaches 187 frames this year, and while that’d be a career-high for him, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Given that context, it wasn’t much of a surprise when The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week (subscription required) that Baltimore was willing to eat virtually all of Cashner’s 2019 salary in Spring Training to facilitate a trade. Obviously, nothing came together.

The 2019 season is only a quarter through, but Cashner suddenly looks more like a passable fifth starter than he did a year ago. Through 48 1/3 innings, he’s averaged 7.5 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 with a revitalized 51.7 percent grounder rate. His velocity is actually up to 93.5 mph on average, and Cashner’s 9.2 percent swinging-strike rate is the highest it’s been since way back in 2012. Cashner is throwing more four-seamers and more changeups, and he’s generally received more positive results. A contending club with a thin rotation could probably acquire Cashner for little more than a bit of salary relief and use him fifth starter. The upside in that scenario is minimal, however, and Cashner’s vesting option would be a deterrent for any interested team.

The more intriguing scenario would be for one of the many bullpen-needy teams — the Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers or even the Cubs (his original club) — to acquire Cashner and drop him directly into the bullpen. This isn’t exactly a revolutionary concept. Putting Cashner in the bullpen has been a suggestion for years (hence this post’s title). But it’s also a fact that there are very few teams willing to sell at this point in the season, and the ones who are willing to do so would put a high price on most bullpen targets given the short supply of available arms in mid May. That’s unlikely to be the case with the Orioles and Cashner. Elias & Co. know full well that they’ll be summer sellers, and they’d be happy to shed whatever they can of the $5.89MM that remains on Cashner’s 2019 salary.

Beyond that is the fact that there’s some evidence to suggest that Cashner would thrive in shorter stints. Opponents are hitting just .212/.272/.347 against Cashner the first time through the order so far in 2019, and he’s struck out 24.7 percent of the hitters he’s faced the first time through as well. Cashner’s velocity will quite likely tick up even further in shorter stints, which could help him to improve on that ability to miss bats, but he’s already sporting a 3.50 xFIP when facing opponents for the first time in a game. That alone is worthy of intrigue, particularly given the minimal cost of acquisition. Putting Cashner in the ’pen also mitigates any concern about his vesting option, and while he may prefer to work as a starter and have a chance to lock in that 2020 salary, he’d set himself up for a solid payday next winter if he can thrive in a multi-inning relief role.

This time of year, there are far more clubs looking for bullpen help than there are arms available. That’s not going to enhance Cashner’s trade value much — the O’s probably won’t get much beyond some salary relief — but the lack of available alternatives should still lead teams to explore the idea of finally converting him into a full-time reliever.

Prospect Promotions & Super Two Timing

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Super Two status opens the door to an extra season of arbitration eligibility for certain younger players. Among players in the 2+ service class that spent at least 86 days in the prior season on an active MLB roster (or the injured list), the top 22% in terms of total service receive the Super Two designation. We won’t know the specific service level required until the class has been fully defined.

The ability to achieve that status is dictated primarily by early-career promotion decisions. It’s a factor for teams to consider as they manage their rosters. But it isn’t as strong of a motivator as the math that strongly disincentivizes teams from placing top young prospects on Opening Day rosters. (Kris Bryant recently labeled that a “loophole” that needs to be closed.) Super Two players are still controllable for the same duration as any others, thus preserving teams’ abilities to control the prime years of their best young talent and maintain timing-based bargaining leverage in long-term contract talks.

It’s tempting to think that Super Two status doesn’t matter all that much. True, some teams can largely afford to throw such considerations out the window, figuring that any future payroll impacts can be dealt with if and when they arise. It’s unlikely that the Red Sox worried too much about Super Two status when they decided to bring up Michael Chavis recently. If it turned out he wasn’t quite ready or needed for the duration of the season, he’d go back down anyway. And if he produced — as he has thus far — the long-term sacrifices would be well worth it even for just another month or two of immediate production.

For many teams, it’s tough to be cavalier when the stakes can be so significant. Since the arb system rewards players via raises once they are in the system, the ability to start with a big number and add to it three times vastly increases a player’s potential cumulative pre-free agency earning power. It’s not always obvious at the time the decision is being made, but don’t doubt for a second the degree of potential impact.

Consider Edwin Diaz, the stud closer who was traded over the offseason from the Mariners to the Mets. You may recall that money was a significant aspect of that deal (even moreso than your average MLB swap). Seattle was able to shed a big chunk of Robinson Cano’s remaining salary and add some intriguing young talent by agreeing to part with Diaz. Beyond his abilities on the mound, why was it that Diaz was such a desirable asset? Since Diaz fell shy of arbitration, the Mets were able to renew his contract at just $607K. MLBTR’s arbitration projections would have valued things quite differently had Diaz made it through the door, predicting a whopping $7.5MM salary due to his rare combination of dominant innings and saves. Diaz should still be able to command a big first-year arb salary this fall, but he’ll have to stay healthy to do so and will be starting from scratch rather than building off that massive starting point. The M’s, meanwhile, are enjoying a significantly different payroll situation; had Diaz been a Super Two qualifier, the Mets would’ve had a completely different view of how much Cano salary they’d be amenable to absorbing.

It works the other way, of course. Nationals shortstop Trea Turner snuck in with 2.135 years of service and earned $3.725MM. Tigers southpaw Matt Boyd checked in with a 2.136 service clock and got $2.6MM. And Cubs reliever Carl Edwards Jr., who landed on the dot at 2.134, took home $1.5MM. Things can change quickly in baseball. Turner has been hurt early this year, so his extra arb year will help prop up his ability to earn this fall and beyond. Boyd has taken an ace turn early; if he’s able to sustain even this one monster big-league season, he could be able to secure life-long financial security as soon as this fall. As for Edwards, he was optioned down earlier this year, which demonstrates another of the perils that’s protected against by early arb qualification.

So, we’d love to know which young players will ultimately obtain that status. When is this year’s cutoff? Well, that’s a bit of a misnomer. There’s no way to know in advance how much service it will take. Even if you look at the other players being promoted, you can’t assume they’ll all remain in the majors. And others could still drop back into the 2+ service class if they’re demoted in the future.

Over the past decade, the Super Two cutoff level has ranged from a low of 2.122 to a high of 2.146. Last year’s 2.134 cutoff lands smack dab in the middle. Players that were promoted on or before May 7th of this year were in line to accrue 146 days of service this season, thus putting them on track to clear all the bars we’ve seen in recent campaigns. Players promoted today could accrue as many as 139 days of service this season. And a player can top out at 122 days if they make it onto the active roster on the last day of May. Generally, a June promotion point should be “safe” for teams that want to avoid eventual Super Two status (that is, for prospects that haven’t previously accumulated any time).

Of course, coming up doesn’t always mean staying up. Nationals infielder Carter Kieboom was optioned back after 11 days; Rays first bagger Nate Lowe logged ten. They could still return and boost those tallies. Or, the days could come into play for 2020 promotion considerations; that’s how Turner ended up with his tally. A fair number of other younger players are firmly on track for eventual Super Two status so long as they can stay up. Chavis, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Griffin Canning, and Nick Senzel are all tracking to reach 150 or more days of service this year. With his promotion on Sunday, Astros righty Corbin Martin could max out at 141 days in 2019. Most recently, youngsters Nicky Lopez (link) and Oscar Mercado (link) were tapped for call-ups, though the precise dates aren’t yet clear.

What Are The Giants Doing In The Outfield?

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We are regularly asked questions about the state of the Giants’ outfield, so I decided to assess the 10 (soon to be 11) players they’ve used out there so far.  I also took a look at their options in the upper minors.

Outfielders The Giants Have Used In Their First 40 Games

Left Field

  • Gerardo Parra (40.7% of defensive innings) – Parra signed a minor league deal in February and broke camp with the big league club, but was designated for assignment on May 3rd, signed with the Nationals, and has started their last three games.  The Giants pulled the plug on the 32-year-old veteran after 97 plate appearances.
  • Yangervis Solarte (12.0%) – Much like Parra, Solarte was a veteran signed to a minor league deal in February who made the big league team but is now out of the organization.  Solarte received 78 plate appearances.  It should be noted that he’s much more of an infielder by trade.
  • Tyler Austin (10.7%) – A 13th round draft pick of the Yankees in 2010 after serving as a catcher in high school, Austin began seeing significant outfield time in the minors in 2012.  According to Baseball America after that season, Austin combined “physical maturity with athleticism” and ascended to Double-A as well as a 60 grade in their prospect rankings.  He was considered one of the 80 best prospects in the game at the time.  Perhaps with a contribution from a wrist injury, Austin’s status as a prospect took a tumble after he played regularly at Double-A in 2013.  BA still considered Austin “a potential everyday outfielder” after another injury-affected season at that level in 2014.  He started 2015 at Triple-A but was demoted back to Double-A in August, finally getting designated for assignment by the Yankees to make room on the 40-man roster for September call-ups.  Austin passed through waivers at that time.
  • Austin battled his way back to Triple-A in the summer of 2016 and raked in 57 games, finally getting a shot with the big league club alongside Aaron Judge.  A broken foot sidelined Austin in February 2017, and once he was healthy in June, he soon replaced Chris Carter as part of the Yankees’ first base mix.  Soon after, Austin returned to the DL with a hamstring injury.  He spent the rest of 2017 bouncing up and down from Triple-A, but managed to break camp with the big league club in 2018 due to a Greg Bird injury.  At the ’18 trade deadline, the Yankees dealt Austin to the Twins as part of the return for Lance Lynn.  Austin was in the Twins’ DH/first base mix for the rest of that season, but found himself competing for a backup role this season after Minnesota added C.J. Cron and Marwin Gonzalez.  Though he broke camp with the Twins, Austin was quickly designated for assignment in April this year when they needed bullpen help.  The Giants picked him up via trade, and despite a minor elbow injury Austin has hit well in his 47 plate appearances for San Francisco.  Austin has split his time between left field and first base, the latter of which is typically manned by Brandon Belt.  The 27-year-old Austin has struck out a ton but has also showed good power in his scattered 456 big league plate appearances.  He’s out of minor league options and the 17-23 Giants represent a great opportunity for Austin, particularly if Belt is traded this summer.  That said, Austin has started only three of the Giants’ last ten games.
  • Mac Williamson (9.8%) – Williamson was drafted by the Giants out of Wake Forest in the third round in 2012, a known overdraft at the time according to Baseball America.  BA graded Williamson as a 50 prospect, noting huge raw power, questionable contact skills, “surprising athleticism,” and an impressive work ethic.  After a strong 2013 season at High-A, Williamson was upgraded to a 55 grade prospect by BA, but he went down for Tommy John surgery in April 2014.  The injury did little to dim Williamson’s star, and he moved through Double and Triple-A quickly in 2015, earning a September call-up to the Giants.  In need of regular at-bats, Williamson started the 2016 season back at Triple-A.  At the time, BA’s outlook was that “his power and on-base give him a chance to be a useful big leaguer, though his swing is not conducive for a player who plays sporadically.”  Williamson was up and down for much of 2016, hitting the DL in August with a shoulder injury and then in September with a quad injury.  His competition for regular playing time in 2017 was interrupted with another quad injury, and he again bounced up and down from Triple-A to the Giants that year.  Williamson revamped his swing before the 2018 campaign, finding his way back to the Majors before the end of April.  He endured a concussion in late April that effectively ruined his season.  There was a point in March this year when Williamson was the leader for the Giants’ starting left field job, but he was designated for assignment weeks later, which says a lot about the team’s outfield situation.  He cleared waivers, raked at Triple-A for a month, and was re-added to the Giants’ 40-man last week.  Williamson, now 28, has never had an extended period as a starting player for the Giants.  Like Austin, he’s out of minor league options and must make the most of a great opportunity.  He’s said to be getting an “extended look as the starting left fielder,” which in light of Williamson’s recent DFA suggests either that the Giants are very fickle about what constitutes a starter, or they’re just desperate.
  • Connor Joe (9.3%) – Joe was drafted 39th overall out of the University of San Diego by the Pirates in 2014.  He was traded to the Braves for Sean Rodriguez in August 2017, and then to the Dodgers for international pool money the following month.  The Reds snagged Joe in the 2018 Rule 5 draft with an eye on his work at the catcher position, but dealt him to the Giants in March this year.  The Giants gave Joe eight games (including the Opening Day left field nod) before designating him for assignment, and he has now been returned to the Dodgers organization.
  • Mike Gerber (8.2%) – Gerber was drafted by the Tigers in the 15th round out of Creighton in 2014.  Baseball America considered Gerber a “possible late round bargain” after his pro debut.  Though Gerber was old for Low-A in 2015, he hit well and saw his status upgraded to a 50 prospect by BA.  At the time, BA suggested that at least some scouts saw him as a possible big league regular in right field.  Gerber made it to Double-A the following year, and the Tigers saw fit to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.  Gerber spent 2018 moving up and down between Triple-A and the Majors, struggling in his brief big league sample.  The Giants claimed him off waivers in December, but designated him for assignment in January upon signing Drew Pomeranz.  Gerber cleared waivers at the time, began his year with a strong run at Triple-A, and was re-added to the Giants’ 40-man roster on May 3rd.  The 26-year-old was optioned back to Triple-A last week.  The Giants’ actions suggest they see Gerber as a depth piece.
  • Brandon Belt (7.6%) – The veteran Belt has generally played first base, but has dabbled in left field over the years.  Belt, 31, is owed the remainder of his $16MM salary this year plus $32MM from 2020-21.  Though he has a limited no-trade clause, Belt’s contract and recent injury history are the bigger impediments to a deal.
  • Michael Reed (1.7%) – Reed was a fifth-round draft pick by the Brewers in 2011.  Before the 2017 season, Baseball America wrote, “Reed’s ceiling appears to be extra outfielder with on-base ability and speed, though as a right-handed hitter, he will need to shine in those areas to elevate himself above lefthanded candidates for the bench.”  Reed was removed from the Brewers’ 40-man roster that summer and spent time with the Braves in 2018 before being claimed off waivers by the Twins.  The Giants picked him up in a March trade and though he made the Opening Day roster when Williamson was designated for assignment (and started that first game in right field), Reed himself was designated on April 2nd when the club acquired Kevin Pillar.  He remained in the organization on a minor league deal.
  • Breakouts are always possible, but it’s difficult to see anyone who has played left field for the Giants this year as a likely long-term piece.

Center Field

  • Kevin Pillar (82.9%) – The Giants acquired Pillar in a trade with the Blue Jays on April 2nd.  The veteran Pillar is generally known for his glovework, though it seems to have slipped this year in a small sample.  Pillar has always been a below-average hitter.  He’s earning $5.8MM this season and though he’s controllable for 2020, my guess is that he’ll be playing elsewhere.
  • Steven Duggar (17.1%) – Duggar was drafted by the Giants out of Clemson in the sixth round in 2015.  After his pro debut, Baseball America rated Duggar as a 45 prospect with plus speed and a plus arm who had nonetheless disappointed scouts in games to that point.  His star brightened to a 50 grade after a 2016 season that saw Duggar reach Double-A, with BA writing, “Duggar is a premium athlete who is proving he can hit.”  He missed a large chunk of the 2017 season due to hip and elbow injuries, but played in the Arizona Fall League and nearly broke camp with the Giants in 2018.  He got the call in July after the Giants traded Austin Jackson but suffered a shoulder injury in late August.  The injury required season-ending surgery, but Duggar made it back to begin the year as the Giants’ Opening Day center fielder.  So far though Duggar has spent much more time in right field, which makes sense given the Pillar acquisition.  Barring a breakout, Duggar’s bat would really only seem to play in center field.  The acquisition of Pillar, who is not a long-term piece for the Giants, seemingly denies a chance to see whether Duggar can settle in as the team’s everday center fielder.

Right Field

  • Steven Duggar (73.3%) – Duggar has shown well defensively in his 261-inning right field sample this year, but again, the bat profiles in center.
  • Gerardo Parra (19.9%)
  • Michael Reed (3.7%)
  • Mac Williamson (2.5%)
  • Brandon Belt (0.6%)

The Giants’ Most Recent Outfield Acquisition

  • On Saturday, the Giants claimed Aaron Altherr off waivers from the Phillies.  Now 28, Altherr was drafted by the Phillies out of high school in the ninth round a decade ago.  The Fresh Prince of Altherr has shown flashes of brilliance in his 332 game Phillies career, particularly in a 2017 season in which he posted a 121 wRC+ in 107 games.  Altherr was considered a high risk, high reward player when he was drafted.  Like many of the Giants’ outfielders, Altherr is out of minor league options and has a lengthy injury history but could become interesting if he takes advantage of his shot at regular playing time.  The Giants had mostly settled into a Williamson-Pillar-Duggar alignment from left to right, and it remains to be seen how Altherr fits in.

Down On the Farm

  • The Giants have one premium outfield prospect in Heliot Ramos.  However, he’s only at High A plus he’s currently on the IL for an LCL sprain.  According to MLB Pipeline, Ramos’ ETA is 2021.  Prospects Alexander Canario, Jairo Pomares, and Sandro Fabian are also not close to the Majors.
  • At Triple-A, the Giants have the aforementioned Gerber still on the 40-man roster, while Reed would need to be re-added (the Giants’ 40-man roster is currently full).
  • Also on the 40-man is Austin Slater, the Giants’ eighth round draft pick from 2014.  Slater has a good amount of big league experience and he’s playing well at Sacramento.  This year he’s played first base more than anything at Triple-A, and otherwise he’s mostly just a left field option.  He was generally a regular in the Giants’ outfield in the summer of 2017 until sustaining a hip injury and a sports hernia.  Slater was up and down in 2018 and figures to face a similar fate this year.  He’s played five different positions at Triple-A in the early going, but mostly first base.  Slater projected as a second-division regular as of about a year ago, according to Baseball America.
  • The Giants’ Triple-A roster also includes outfielders career minor leaguers Anthony Garcia, Henry Ramos, and Mike Yastrzemski.  While any of them could conceivably help the big league club in a pinch, they’re all at least 27 years old and aren’t considered prospects.
  • The Giants’ Double-A roster includes Chris Shaw, who is on the 40-man roster after a cup of coffee last September.  Shaw, the Giants’ first-round pick in 2015, was said by BA to have “top-of-the-scale raw power” after being drafted.  He’s a below-average defender at left field and first base, according to BA, so his bat will have to carry him.  Shaw was surprisingly demoted to Double-A to start the season, but the 25-year-old still has a chance to help the Giants this year and even carve out a future as a regular.
  • The Giants also have Heath Quinn, Jacob Heyward, and Johneshwy Fargas at Double-A.  Quinn rated as a 45 prospect prior to the season, though he’s struggled in his first 107 plate appearances in trying to make the jump to Double-A.  Jacob Heyward, Jason’s younger brother, rates as just a 40 prospect at MLB Pipeline but is performing well in the early going for the Flying Squirrels.
  • The Giants will draft tenth overall this June, and FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reported, “The rumor is that this is another pick that will go college, and likely a college hitter, with new Giants GM Farhan Zaidi having prized versatility and defensive value when building the Dodgers.”  So that pick could certainly be used on an outfielder.

It’s early, but Zaidi hasn’t acquitted himself well with regard to his outfield.  After Bryce Harper went to the Phillies, the Giants had something of a blank canvas in the outfield that would ideally allow them to find a diamond in the rough or at least give semi-interesting prospects regular playing time.  Instead both Opening Day corner outfielders are gone, the dalliance with Parra was brief, Williamson went from DFA to starter, Pillar was acquired to push Duggar to right, and now Altherr is in the mix.  There’s actually some real talent in the Giants’ outfield mix, but so far the team hasn’t inspired confidence in how they’re doling out playing time.

Keuchel & Kimbrel Will Soon Be Free Of Draft Compensation

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It’s funny how narratives shift. Not long ago, the drag effect of the qualifying offer was perhaps the single hottest topic in discussions of open-market dynamics. Now, broader forces have far eclipsed it in importance while rule changes have reduced the impact of the compensation system.

Let’s not ignore the interplay between the QO rule tweaks and the other CBA changes that have helped suppress free-agent earnings. The new qualifying offer rules represented a concession by the owners, but one that only really helped a limited range of players: those good enough to receive significant one-year offers from their existing clubs (most recently, the price was set at $17.9MM) but not so overwhelmingly appealing that the draft compensation was but a minor consideration. The burn was felt most by very good but somewhat flawed and/or older players. Reducing the magnitude of draft compensation helps, but those same players have gone on to be squeezed by other changes to rules and market dynamics.

In any event, the present market setting is one in which the qualifying offer factor is actually perhaps under-appreciated. Parting with draft picks for the right to pay top dollar to a free agent is still a tough pill to swallow for some teams. And there’s little doubt that the cost will be passed through to the player. As Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has put it, “we’ll put the value into an offer, but it wouldn’t stop us.” The inverse of that sentence might be a more accurate way of stating the prevailing approach.

As you’re no doubt aware if you’ve read this far, there are two remaining free agents who declined a QO this past winter: all-time-great reliever Craig Kimbrel (Red Sox) and former Cy Young-winning starter Dallas Keuchel (Astros). This is the age-31 season for both players. They each have had their hiccups; despite producing generally commendable results of late, neither was at his finest form in 2018. Draft compensation has surely played a role in their rather stunning failure to sign to this point of the season, though it’s far from the only or even the predominant factor.

Both Kimbrel and Keuchel decided against settling for short-term bailout offers that emerged when their markets didn’t. Once the season started, it became quite likely that they’d end up waiting until at least June before putting pen to paper. That’s because the June draft represents an important point on the timeline for the qualifying offer rules.

Per the express terms of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, draft compensation is only available when a qualified player signs on or before the day immediately preceding the Rule 4 draft. This year’s selections begin on June 3rd. MLBTR has confirmed that, unless Kimbrel and Keuchel officially sign (with full league and union approval) on or before 11:59pm EST on June 2nd, all draft compensation relating to those players will be nullified.

With just over three weeks remaining until that vanishing act takes place, it’s rather difficult to see a deal materializing in advance of the draft. If teams are still capable of emotional decisionmaking, this is perhaps the time of year when draft choices are likely to be valued most highly, as clubs are tantalizingly close to turning those selections into actual prospects they like. And if the value of the draft pick compensation is effectively drawn out of the salary the team would otherwise offer, as Anthopoulos suggests and as stands to reason, then it surely makes sense for the player to wait a few more weeks at this point.

A surprise is always possible, but it’s all but certain now that the reps for the K&K holdout hurlers are already chatting with teams about post-draft signing scenarios. What exactly does that mean? For one thing, the countdown could be on for these accomplished hurlers to finally begin pitching again. In some respects, the scene will shift; teams weighing a signing will also be considering trade-deadline alternatives that will require the sacrifice of young talent (and that may not be available for at least a few more weeks). The wild card here is the players’ asking prices; it remains to be seen if they’ll hold out for (and receive) significant, multi-year offers.

For the teams potentially involved, the situation is clear. The Red Sox will not receive the post-4th-round comp pick they would have otherwise, which would have landed after the 137th pick that they already hold. And the Astros will miss out on a choice after competitive balance round B wraps up; it’d have been the 79th overall selection. For all the prospective signing teams, they would hang onto the picks they’d otherwise have to punt to sign one of these pitchers. Putting a real price on those picks is a tricky thing to do — here’s one recent attempt — because any real-world valuation would include team context (such as other picks and negotiating opportunities) as well as the grades placed on the actual prospects that might be taken.

If a deal does formally come together before the draft for one of these players, it’ll likely be with the former team. That’s how it played out back in 2014, the other time we’ve seen players turn down qualifying offers and then languish on the open market. Stephen Drew signed in late May, but that was a deal with the incumbent Red Sox, who by that time already knew they’d miss out on compensation with the draft so close. Kendrys Morales waited until early June for draft compensation to clear, then landed with the Twins.

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