Can The Phillies Justify A Win-Now Deadline?
It’s obvious on the face of the standings that the Phillies haven’t been playing great ball. After setting the pace in the NL East through early June, the club took a spill (dropping 11 of 13) and has limped along ever since at about a .500 rate of play. The Braves are largely cruising. The Nats just streaked past. The Mets are even back on their feet and in pursuit.
This is what all of that looks like in Fangraphs form: a bunch of jagged lines that signify devastating changes to the Phillies’ odds of appearing in the postseason. That chart, at least, shows that there’s still at least something like a one-in-five chance … at a coin-flip game to get a full playoff series. The division is the real prize. How are things looking there? Well, the descending jags are beginning to flatline.
More worrying still is the fact that the Phillies’ record may not even accurately reflect the team’s true state. Entering play today, the club was carrying a negative-20 run differential. By measure of BaseRuns — which looks not at actual runs or actual wins, but reasonably expected runs (and by translation wins) based upon underlying performance — the Phils have outperformed their theoretical win expectancy by a whopping seven games. The good news is that the team does not actually sit five games below .500. The bad news is that they have (broadly speaking) played like such a team, and project to play sub-.500 ball going forward.
I can already hear some readers’ alarm bells going off … what happened didn’t really quite happen? you can predict the future? Phooey! None of those fancy stats are gospel, true, though they do provide critical context for understanding outcomes that necessarily depend upon a vast array of factors. And it’s not as if other means of analyzing the situation provide cause for greater optimism. Phillies pitchers — especially starters — are giving up home runs by the bucket. (Analytical aside: the Phils’ three most successful starters — Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Jake Arrieta — have also outperformed their FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers.) Closer Hector Neris is suddenly on the ropes. What appeared at the outset to be a loaded lineup is now without one of its best pieces (Andrew McCutchen) and carries a distinctively middle-of-the-road .243/.322/.420 collective output.
This is a club that entered the season with huge expectations after promising its fans significant spending and going on to secure the services of McCutchen, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and David Robertson. It’s not as if it’s totally out of the picture. Still, it doesn’t feel like a time for anything close to an all-in push.
And yet … here we are, reading about the Phillies’ broad canvassing of the starting pitching market. The club is reportedly looking into just about every starting pitcher named on MLBTR’s list of the top sixty free agents — including pure rental players, highly paid veterans, and younger/more controllable hurlers. From public reports, anyway, it seems to be the sort of open-ended approach that would seem better suited to a club in a clearer position to contend.
But it may be that we shouldn’t read too much into the laundry list of starting pitching targets. It would behoove the club to have a good sense of the price of all the arms, after all. And at some point, it’d be worth going ahead with a move even for a pending free agent if the acquisition cost is low enough. There’s no particular reason to believe the team would act in an overly rash manner, even if it has an obvious interest in seeing through its significant offseason investments. President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak have plenty of contractual security, so their incentives should be fully in line with those of the organization itself.
Notably, the club’s leadership hasn’t been shy about acknowledging the predicament. MacPhail seems quite realistic about the situation. It’s no question whether the team is “one trade away from the World Series,” he said: “We don’t believe that. I don’t believe that.” Well then. That doesn’t mean that the club won’t pursue additions, but the declining postseason odds will clearly influence the nature of the pursuit. MacPhail suggested the Phils would “be more judicious with [their] playing talent,” while noting that such hesitancy to give up high-end prospects “doesn’t mean you can’t make a deal where a component is taking on somebody’s salary.”
So, where do and where should the Phillies stand when the deadline hits? That’ll obviously depend upon the final run of play, but presuming the situation remains roughly the same, there’s little doubt that a true all-in deadline approach would be unwise. The odds of a division title are minuscule; chances at a Wild Card are rather low. That said, there’s unquestionably value in pursuing even a play-in opportunity. Drawing fans down the stretch, convincing season-ticket holders to re-up for 2020, maintaining roster morale, preparing for another offseason of player recruiting (free agents and extension targets), adding players who’ll feature on future rosters … there are causes aplenty even beyond that of boosting the odds of a postseason berth itself. And even a Wild Card comes with an approximately 50/50 shot at earning a full series … and who knows from there?
What’s most interesting here is the fact that the Phillies are obviously especially willing to throw their financial heft into acquisition efforts. That may not be possible for quite a few other teams — even traditional big spenders have their limits and are facing luxury tax concerns — and opens up many creative possibilities. Perhaps a rental target or controllable starter could be packaged with a more expensive (albeit potentially still useful) player to reduce the prospect burden. Or the Philadelphia org can simply focus in on the higher-priced segment of the market as things shake out under the pressure of the impending deadline. Plus, while the Phils are seemingly clinging to prospects … who isn’t? There’s plenty of reason to think they can compete with cash — and, more importantly, that it could make bottom-line sense from both a financial and baseball sense to do so. If they fall short in their pursuit of new arms, the Philadelphia front office can sleep easy knowing that it did its best … and, quite possibly, forced the club’s long-term rivals to pony up additional young talent to shut down the 2019 Phils.
How Good Is Shane Greene?
With the Tigers mired in a rebuild and closer Shane Greene in his second-last year of team control, the right-hander ranks as one of baseball’s most obvious trade candidates heading into the July 31 deadline. While little has gone right this year for Detroit, whose 29-62 record stands as the game’s second worst, Greene has been one of the team’s few bright lights. That’s especially encouraging for the Tigers considering they may be on the verge of dealing the All-Star to a contender.
A Tiger since they acquired him from the Yankees in a noteworthy three-team trade entering the 2015 season, Greene’s tenure in the Motor City has been a mixed bag. He was subpar in his first year with the Tigers while mostly working as a starter, and has proved inconsistent as a reliever since then. Greene’s career has continued its up-and-down trajectory this season, but 2019 has checked in on the overwhelmingly positive side in terms of results. The 30-year-old owns a near-flawless 1.06 ERA in 34 innings, during which he has converted 22 of 24 saves. Greene has racked up those numbers on a reasonable $4MM salary, which should only add to his appeal for reliever-needy contenders.
Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported last week that interested clubs view Greene as more a setup man than a closer, despite the success he has enjoyed putting a bow on rare Detroit wins this year.
The question is: Would an acquiring team be getting a real difference-maker in Greene? His ERA says yes, as do Greene’s 9.26 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, career-high 53.4 percent groundball rate and improved swinging-strike and contact rates. Furthermore, thanks in part to a personal-best 15.2 percent infield fly mark, Greene’s hard-contact rate against has tumbled from 37.5 percent last year to 27.3 this season. According to FanGraphs, just 11 relievers have yielded a lower hard-hit percentage than Greene.
Statcast only places Greene in the league’s 49th percentile in the hard-hit department, though it assigns him far better reviews in the expected slugging percentage (67th), expected weighted on-base average (80th) and expected batting average (86th) categories. It also indicates Greene has made changes to his pitch mix compared to last year, having upped his cutter usage by almost 6 percent and thrown his slider 4 percent less. Greene’s slider hasn’t produced poor results, but his cutter and his main pitch – a sinker – have been particularly tough on opposing hitters. Thus far, they’ve managed sub-.200 wOBAs against the two. Those offerings have helped Greene stymie same-handed batters, who have logged a pitiful .170 wOBA against him, and also keep lefties at bay (.271).
As effective as Greene has been in 2019, there are some red flags accompanying his performance. For one, his velocity isn’t quite where it was in 2018. Beyond that, it appears Greene has benefited greatly from luck. ERA estimators FIP (3.66), xFIP (4.04) and SIERA (3.62) paint Greene as something closer to a useful reliever than a a true shutdown option, and the .179 batting average on balls in play he has surrendered to opposing hitters likely won’t hold. The number’s a whopping 125 points below Greene’s career norm (.304). Allowing less impactful contact has helped Greene sustain that figure to this point, granted, but it’s nevertheless a good bet to climb as the season progresses. Likewise, Greene’s 86.1 percent strand rate – which is a lofty 17-plus points higher than his usual (69.0) – may regress toward his lifetime mean over the next couple months. Plus, although Greene’s aforementioned xwOBA (.282) is among the league’s best, it’s still 66 points higher than the real wOBA he has given up (.216).
It’s clear there are no shortage of reasons for optimism and pessimism in regards to Greene’s 2019 output. It’s also obvious Greene’s a capable major league reliever, though, and with another year of arbitration control left, he’ll be in demand around the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Washington’s Yan Gomes Acquisition Isn’t Working Out
The Nationals were one of eight teams whose catchers posted a sub-replacement fWAR in 2018, which led general manager Mike Rizzo to make over the position entering this season. Rizzo said goodbye to Matt Wieters and Pedro Severino, the Nationals’ primary catchers last year, and brought in Kurt Suzuki in free agency and Yan Gomes in a trade with the Indians. Both pickups looked fine on paper, and Suzuki has played pretty well through the first four months into the season. Gomes, on the other hand, has been stunningly bad.
Set to turn 32 this Friday, Gomes was a valuable backstop in Cleveland, where he totaled 13.7 fWAR from 2013-18. But Gomes has taken massive steps back in D.C., where he has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and mustered an unsightly .202/.298/.290 batting line with three home runs in 208 plate appearances. Gomes’ 54 wRC+ is barely more than half the 101 he managed last year with the Tribe, and his .087 ISO ranks ninth worst in the majors among 262 hitters who have amassed at least 200 trips to the plate.
To make matters worse, Gomes hasn’t been the same caliber of defender he was just a year ago, when he ranked as one of Baseball Prospectus’ premier catchers (including in the pitch-framing department). Although Gomes has thrown out a strong 36 percent of would-be base stealers – up from 29 percent in 2018 – BP regards the Washington version as a below-average backstop and a subpar framer. Meanwhile, Statcast only puts Gomes’ in the majors’ 36th percentile when it comes to stealing strikes.
Statcast also thinks little of Gomes’ offense, placing him in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, expected batting average and expected weighted-on base average. There isn’t a huge difference between Gomes’ xwOBA (.276) and real wOBA (.261), which suggests a major rebound isn’t coming at the plate. FanGraphs offers even more bad news, noting Gomes’ hard-hit percentage (25.2) has dropped exactly 18 points since 2018 and ranks third last in the majors. Gomes is hitting far more ground balls and far fewer line drives than he did a year ago, which predictably hasn’t been a recipe for success.
If you’re holding out for encouraging signs, there are a few, starting with Gomes’ K/BB ratio. He has struck out in 23.1 percent of plate appearances, down from 25.8 percent or more in each of the previous four seasons. Moreover, Gomes’ walk rate, 10.1 percent, is a career best and almost doubles his lifetime mark (5.4). He’s also swinging and missing less than he has in recent years and making much more out-of-zone contact than ever. And Gomes’ .258 batting average on balls in play, a 37-point decrease from his lifetime figure (.295), indicates he has dealt with some poor fortune this year.
Even if Gomes’ BABIP does normalize as the season goes on, odds are the Nationals aren’t going to get the 2018 All-Star version they wanted. To this point, Gomes has surprisingly been a less valuable player than right-hander Jefry Rodriguez, whom the Nationals traded to the Indians for him and who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his own right. The Nats also parted with outfield prospect Daniel Johnson, a 24-year-old who has notched quality numbers in his first Triple-A action this season, and young infielder Andruw Monasterio.
Waving goodbye to Rodriguez, Johnson and Monasterio to acquire Gomes was an understandable decision for Washington at the time, but the move hasn’t yielded dividends thus far for the playoff hopefuls. Unless Gomes revisits his prior form during the final couple months of the campaign, the Nationals may buy him out in the offseason in lieu of exercising a $9MM club option for 2020.
Poll: Aroldis Chapman’s Opt-Out Clause
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday morning that Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will become one of the most notable names on the free-agent market in the offseason. Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on the five-year, $86MM contract he signed entering 2016, but a source told Rosenthal the left-hander is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and revisit the open market in a few months. Chapman subsequently denied the report, but the still-great fireballer does seem like a realistic candidate to outdo the remainder of his current contract in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects Chapman to opt out, having ranked the Cuban flamethrower sixth in his most recent list of potential free agents.
There may be an argument for Chapman to stay put, though, if you consider the less-than-ideal trip to free agency fellow longtime standout closer Craig Kimbrel took this past season. Kimbrel, thanks in part to a qualifying offer, went until early June without a contract before finally signing with the Cubs. But Kimbrel showed real signs of decline in 2018, and despite that, the 31-year-old still signed a three-year, $43MM contract worth a substantial amount more than what’s left on Chapman’s pact.
Chapman, who will turn 32 next February, remains a game-ending force. The former Red and Cub has lost a bit of velocity this season, but he’s still throwing near 100 mph. He’s also the owner of a 2.45 ERA/2.09 FIP with 13.01 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, a 45.8 percent groundball rate and 25 saves in 29 chances across 36 2/3 innings this year. Neither lefties nor righties have done much to solve Chapman, who has yielded a .257 weighted on-base average/.263 expected wOBA in 2019.
Not only has Chapman thrived again this year, but no other reliever would offer a better track record than him in free agency. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen could opt out of the two years and $38MM left on his contract, but he has been more vulnerable than usual this season. Giants closer and impending free agent Will Smith has been tremendous this year, though he can’t match Chapman’s long-term excellence. Meanwhile, Chapman’s teammate Dellin Betances has enjoyed a phenomenal career as a setup man, yet multiple injuries have prevented him from pitching at all this season. The rest of the impending free-agent class doesn’t approach Chapman.
If there’s one factor that could significantly tamp down Chapman’s earning power, it’s a qualifying offer. Teams didn’t want to cough up a massive amount of money and surrender a draft pick for Kimbrel or starter Dallas Keuchel, two stars who sat without a job until last month. Chapman would also have a QO and draft compensation hanging over his head, as there’s no chance the Yankees would allow him to leave without getting something in return. But it’s improbable that would be enough to stop Chapman from giving free agency another whirl during the upcoming winter. What do you expect him to do?
(Poll link for app users)
Do you expect Aroldis Chapman to opt out after the season?
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Yes 57% (4,025)
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No 43% (3,060)
Total votes: 7,085
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Relievers By K/BB Ratio
On Tuesday, with help from the top 60 trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week, we took a look at the movable starters who have outpaced the rest of the pack in K/BB ratio this season. We’ll do the same here with qualified relievers in advance of the July 31 trade deadline…
Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 7:33
- Dyson’s just two years removed from being left for dead by the Rangers, who traded him to the Giants for a meager package in 2017. The 31-year-old has revived his career in San Francisco, though, and will garner a far better return this time if the Giants move him this month. Dyson has fanned 8.61 per nine innings against just 1.17 walks, induced grounders at a 55.6 percent clip and notched a nearly identical 2.74 ERA/2.73 FIP in 46 innings. Dyson, who’s on a $5MM salary, also comes with another year of arbitration eligibility.
Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres: K/BB ratio: 7.11
- Yates is going to be hard to pry out of San Diego. Multiple reports have indicated the Padres are understandably seeking a king’s ransom in return for the 32-year-old. Since the Padres claimed Yates off waivers from the Angels in April 2017, he has evolved into one of the game’s premier relievers. Yates owns a jaw-dropping 1.10 ERA/1.28 FIP with 14.05 K/9 against 1.98 BB/9 over 41 innings this season, and has made good on 30 of 32 save opportunities. Adding to Yates’ appeal, he’s making an affordable sum ($3,062,500) and under arbitration control for another season.
Will Smith, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 6.22
- There has been widespread interest in Smith, who – along with Dyson – has helped form an imposing late-game setup in San Francisco. Smith has recorded a 2.75 ERA/2.70 FIP with 12.81 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 39 1/3 frames, during which he has converted 24 saves on 26 opportunities. Although Smith’s making a reasonable $4.225MM this season, the 30-year-old would be a rental for another team, as he’s due to hit free agency over the winter. Having charged back into the NL wild-card race of late, the Giants might not be locks to move Smith (or their other vets) on paper. However, they’re reportedly planning to sell in the next two weeks despite their recent hot streak. Smith figures to be in another uniform soon, then.
Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays: K/BB ratio: 5.89
- The 28-year-old Giles has dealt with an elbow issue since last weekend, but indications are it isn’t serious. If true, he should hold plenty of value around the deadline. Not only does he make a fair salary ($6.3MM) and come with another season of arbitration control, but the hard-throwing Giles is enjoying a career campaign. The former Phillie and Astro has registered a stunning 1.45 ERA/1.50 FIP with 15.39 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 in 31 innings. Giles also ranks second among all relievers in swinging-strike percentage (20.4), and has blown just one save in 14 chances.
Tony Watson, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 5.8
- With three Giants on this list, it’s no wonder president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems inclined to sell this month in lieu of taking what would likely be a futile run at a wild-card spot. Plus, at 34, Watson’s not exactly a long-term piece for the club. While Watson, who’s making $3.5MM this season, does have a player option for 2020, it’s likely he’ll decline the $2.5MM guarantee in favor of a trip to free agency over the winter. After all, Watson has logged a 3.03 ERA with 6.75 K/9, 1.16 BB/9 and a career-high 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate across 38 2/3 innings this year. On the other hand, Watson’s strikeout rate is a personal low, he’s allowing more home runs than ever (1.4 per nine) and his 4.35 FIP and 4.42 xFIP aren’t the marks of a late-game force. He’s also having an unexpected amount of trouble against lefties, who have lit him up for a .341/.356/.477 line in 2019. There’s a strong argument for the Giants to sell high on Watson.
Poll: The Reds’ Deadline Approach
Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.
Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.
Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.
The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.
On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.
(Poll link for app users)
As of now, do you believe the Reds should be deadline buyers?
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No 59% (3,221)
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Yes 41% (2,217)
Total votes: 5,438
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio
If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…
Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13
- Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.
Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33
- A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14
- Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84
- It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.
Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72
- Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April. No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Gerrit Cole. Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016. The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015. The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.
2. Anthony Rendon. In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate. Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract. Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court. A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.
3. Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone. It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016. He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late. San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him. That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power. In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.
4. Zack Wheeler. Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue. The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season. Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one. Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.
5. J.D. Martinez. Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season. He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior. As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.
6. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right. The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal. But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season. Wade Davis‘ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL. The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball. Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure. If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.
8. Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances. However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures. Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017. Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.
9. Jake Odorizzi. A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings. 30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half. However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.
10. Yasmani Grandal. Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee. He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.
Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas
The Rising Athletics And The Starting Pitching Market
One month ago today, the Athletics sat a dozen games off the pace in the AL West with a dead-even 36-36 record. The Oakland org was still a Wild Card contender but seemed all but buried in the division. That was a mild disappointment for a 2018 playoff team but hardly all that surprising given that the A’s were chasing a powerhouse Astros club.
To say that the fortunes have swung in the interim would be to put it lightly. The streaking A’s have dropped just five of their past 22 games. After blitzing past the Rangers in the standings, they’re laying siege to Houston. With the Astros encountering some choppy waters, particularly in the rotation, the lead has dwindled to a decidedly less-than-insurmountable 5.5 games.
Let’s be honest here: the Houston club still seems the prohibitive favorite. With rather deep pockets, some immense talent just reaching or knocking on the door of the majors, and one of the game’s best core groups at the MLB level, the ‘Stros are a legitimate powerhouse. And the padding certainly still factors in; even if all else was equal, the existing 5.5-game lead represents a big head start.
Still, the increasing threat from the A’s creates an interesting dynamic in the division that will have a spillover effect onto the rest of the trade market. These clubs clash directly 11 more times this season, affording the ever-scrappy Oakland org plenty of opportunities to make up ground directly — or for their rivals to kick them back down the ladder. There’s enough of a threat here that the Astros can’t just presume they’ll cruise to a division win. At the very least, they’ll need to account for the rest of the regular season in making deadline acquisitions, rather than simply considering how to structure their roster for an easily assumed postseason run. (That’s a luxury that few teams can afford — only the Dodgers, this year — but it once seemed within reach for Houston.)
What’s most interesting, perhaps, is the fact that these two AL West rivals are set to compete (at least indirectly) in the trade market. The chief need in both cases is pitching, particularly starting pitching, which is also largely true of the other major American League competitors. Teams with controllable rotation pieces — many of whom feature on our recent ranking of the top sixty trade deadline candidates — are no doubt taking uniform measurements for the top prospects currently populating these contenders’ farm systems.
We’ll pause here to acknowledge the aforementioned, division-rival Rangers. While our focus in this post is on the two current division leaders, the Texas club still has an interesting role to play. If they fade a bit further back, the Rangers could have some of the most intriguing starters on offer, with veterans Mike Minor and Lance Lynn both throwing quite well on affordable contracts. If they move back into the picture, at least for the Wild Card, they’d surely be looking to add to their staff. It’s also possible they’ll simply hold. The Athletics’ run will likely weigh to some extent on the Rangers’ decisionmaking; with three game now separating the teams, it makes a surprising Texas postseason appearance feel all the less likely.
To be fair, the A’s and ‘Stros haven’t exactly received problematic rotation work to this point. They’ve each had top-ten overall units by measure of ERA. Unfortunately, that doesn’t tell the whole story of where these clubs stand in terms of starting pitching.
As GM Jeff Luhnow’s latest comments reflect, the Astros have an immediate need for a rotation plug, a broader need for a high-level starter or two down the stretch, and a long-term need to account for multiple rotation spots. Brad Peacock‘s setback, coupled with some struggles and health issues from young MLB pitchers and top prospects, have left the team with quite a few questions behind aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander and steady veteran Wade Miley. While the club has a few notable position players working back from injury, it’s far from clear that it’ll find solutions to its rotation needs from within.
Over in Oakland, rather improbably, the A’s have received sub-4.00 output from each of Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, and Chris Bassitt over 15+ start samples. Each of those pitchers has vastly outperformed his peripherals; they hover in the 5.00 range by measure of ERA estimators such as xFIP and SIERA. All of those things are true also of Daniel Mengden, albeit over just 33 1/3 frames and six starts. While the Oakland staff has collectively limited the long balls plaguing most of the rest of the league, it’s reasonable to anticipate regression — perhaps in no small amount.
The A’s just added Homer Bailey, who’ll help shore up the depth. But he’s no replacement for Frankie Montas, the breakout righty who’ll be able to return later this year from a PED suspension but won’t be eligible for the postseason. While the Oakland org has long hoped for late-season reinforcements from the injured list, it remains to be seen what they’ll get. Jesus Luzardo is back on the shelf and seems increasingly unlikely to make his MLB debut this season. A.J. Puk is still building up length and working out the kinks. And Sean Manaea just began his own rehab assignment. Whether and when those talented southpaws will arrive, and what they’ll be capable of contributing, won’t really be known before the trade deadline.
This all sets the stage for something of a showdown between the teams’ respective top baseball ops decisionmakers: Jeff Luhnow of the Astros and Billy Beane of the Athletics. Both have swung notable deadline deals for starters in the recent past. The Houston club’s dramatic acquisition of Verlander will have a prominent place on Luhnow’s GM gravestone. But that was nothing compared to Beane’s all-out 2014 effort, in which he pulled off a Fourth of July double-dip and followed that up with a stunningly clever (some would say too clever) strike for Jon Lester.
Luhnow and Beane have each been here before. They have some excellent trade chips to work with, several of which could instead be utilized as immediate (and long-term) pieces at the MLB level. Will the Astros seriously consider moving Kyle Tucker? What of top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley, a potential top-shelf ace who has run into trouble this season. Could they consider parting with the flamethrowing Josh James, currently working as a reliever, or can Luhnow convince a rival to accept a package of second-tier prospect talent to make the necessary rotation upgrades? On the A’s side, there are endless possibilities as well. Much of the team’s best upper-level talent is presently unavailable due to injuries or suspensions, but that doesn’t mean those players wouldn’t have value to other organizations. Though the A’s probably won’t want to go too wild in pursuit of rental talent, since the division remains a tall order, perhaps they’ll also see the deadline as an opportunity to add pieces for the future.
It’s equally possible to imagine either organization taking a fairly measured approach to this deadline. Luhnow has in the past been quite judicious in parting with top prospects that he sees as part of the long-term vision. And the A’s might not be willing to sell low on their own most interesting trade pieces, preferring to keep gathering affordable and decent depth pitching while waiting and hoping for a future with a rotation full of cost-controlled aces. But the potential for fireworks is certainly there, and the A’s mid-summer charge could just light the fuse.
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA
Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332
- Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).
Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350
- Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343
- The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.
Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353
- There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337
- Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).