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Out Of Options Players Struggling On Win-Now Clubs

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Every spring, MLBTR publishes a league-wide list of players who are out of minor league options. Those players, who by rule cannot be sent to the minors without first clearing outright waivers, are always worth watching with a close eye as Spring Training draws to a close, given the likelihood that a notable percentage of the list will either be traded or run through waivers prior to Opening Day. This year, 27 of those players have either changed organizations or been removed from the 40-man roster (in some cases, both) since the list’s publication — 17 in Spring Training and another 10 during the regular season. But even for those who dodge that DFA hammer, there’s little in the way of guarantees moving forward.

That’s all the more true for players on teams playing to win in 2019. A rebuilding club can afford to be more lenient with an out-of-options player in hopes that he eventually finds a rhythm and proves capable of helping down the line. The Royals surely aren’t thrilled that Jorge Lopez has an ERA north of 6.00 dating back to his acquisition last summer, but they need all the pitching they can get and Lopez was one of the pieces they received in the Mike Moustakas swap. For now, Kansas City will quite likely continue to give him chances, taking a bigger-picture approach as the club sits 12 games under .500.

A team like the Mets, however, is in a different situation. New York is in its first season under  a new general manager and in year two of Mickey Callaway’s tenure as manager. Ownership opted to go way outside the box in hiring former agent Brodie Van Wagenen as the GM, and he responded with a series of headline-grabbing moves aimed at getting the Mets back to contention. One of his smaller moves was to pick up out-of-options outfielder Keon Broxton from the Brewers in a trade that sent three players to Milwaukee. Now, with Broxton hitting .152/.220/.174 through 50 plate appearances in a backup outfield role, they’re faced with a tough decision. As Newsday’s Tim Healey points out, with Jed Lowrie’s return imminent, Broxton could be in jeopardy of losing his place on the roster.

The Astros don’t have such immediate pressure to make a roster move due a to player’s impending return, but they’re nevertheless eventually going to be forced to make a decision on a few out-of-options role players. None of Tony Kemp, Tyler White or Max Stassi is hitting much at the moment, and none of the bunch can be sent down to the minors.

As a backup catcher with a strong defensive reputation, Stassi could avoid any sort of roster crunch, and White is at least getting on base even if his power has curiously evaporated (.259/.362/.328 in 69 PAs). Kemp, though, is hitting just .188/.259/.313 in 55 plate appearances. Houston is winning plenty of games as it is, but they also have one of the game’s best offensive prospects, Yordan Alvarez, raking at a ridiculous .391/.481/.873 clip in Triple-A. Alvarez, a first baseman/outfielder, has 14 homers through his first 129 PAs this season. At some point, something will probably have to give. There’s an argument that Alvarez should already be in line for the lion’s share of at-bats at DH, with White sliding to the bench and Kemp perhaps being squeezed out.

Over in Minnesota, the Twins have stormed out to Major League Baseball’s best record — just as we all predicted, right? — while receiving a lowly .128/.222/.191 batting line from light-hitting utilityman Ehire Adrianza through 55 plate appearances. Miguel Sano has been out all season but is currently out on a minor league rehab assignment, and Minnesota’s offseason addition of Marwin Gonzalez made Adrianza somewhat redundant. While Gonzalez himself got out to a slow start, he’s showing signs of life after missing a chunk of Spring Training (.289/.386/.395 over his past 11 games). Minnesota may have delayed another such decision by putting struggling left-hander Adalberto Mejia (11 runs, 11 hits, nine walks, 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings) on the 10-day injured list, but the Twins already cut ties with one out-of-options player by flipping Tyler Austin to the Giants. When Mejia returns, he’ll need to show some quick improvement.

The Athletics are facing one of the most difficult situations at present, having traded two players, international bonus money and a Competitive Balance draft pick to acquire Jurickson Profar this offseason. Oakland had hoped to land a potential infield multi-year infield option at a below-market salary but instead has seen Profar flounder both offensively and defensively; he’s hitting just .192/.250/.336 with eight errors (seven of the throwing variety) plus some additional questionable throws to first base. Franklin Barreto isn’t doing anything in Triple-A to force the issue, hitting just .216/.350/.363 in the Las Vegas/Pacific Coast League launching pad, but 23-year-old Jorge Mateo has hit .340/.378/.578 so far in Vegas. Given what the A’s surrendered to acquire Profar, he’s probably not in jeopardy of losing his roster spot. But if he doesn’t turn things around, the team will eventually reduce his role.

Elsewhere on the Oakland roster, right-hander Aaron Brooks opened the year as the fifth starter, but he’s been tattooed for a 5.74 ERA and eight home runs in just 31 1/3 innings of work. The Athletics’ rotation is dealing with plenty of injuries, most dating back to 2018, but the nearer those arms come to activation, the more his role comes into question. The A’s already have several healthy alternatives in Triple-A who are already on the 40-man roster, plus another who is not, in the form of Edwin Jackson. Eventually, the returns of Jharel Cotton, A.J. Puk and perhaps even Sean Manaea will impact the rotation, but there’s no guarantee Brooks will be a part of it by then.

The Diamondbacks entered the season looking like a team in transition but now find themselves in second place as others in the NL West (namely the Rockies) have struggled to unexpected levels. Arizona is five games over .500 and has already begun to act on its out-of-options players, designating Matt Koch for assignment and yanking Zack Godley from the rotation in favor of a bullpen role to get him sorted out. The D-backs love John Ryan Murphy’s glove and seem committed to carrying him even if it means rostering three catchers (although Alex Avila is injured at the moment), but Murphy will need to give them more than the .167/.245/.375 output and 41.5 percent strikeout rate he’s produced so far.

The Indians may have a similar view of Kevin Plawecki and his .167/.302/.333 line, particularly because their other catcher, Roberto Perez, is unlikely to ever provide much offense. Cleveland is struggling immensely at the moment, due largely to one of the game’s most feeble lineups. Eric Haase has nine homers in 100 PAs in Triple-A, but he’s also struck out 32 times and has an overall inferior Triple-A track record to that of Plawecki himself. Still, if the two continue at their current paces, it’ll be difficult not to contemplate a switch.

Looking around the league at the game’s most volatile assets, there’s a strangely large number of relievers on hopeful contenders who have averaged nearly a walk per inning pitched. Jesse Biddle (Braves), Chaz Roe (Rays) and Luis Garcia (Angels) all have ERAs of 3.38 or better, but each has also notched at least a 7.1 BB/9 mark on the young season. Seattle’s Zac Rosscup is in the same boat, though perhaps even more than the D-backs, it’s debatable whether the Mariners are a win-now club — particularly in light of a recent slump that has relegated them to just one game over .500.

Other win-now clubs have had their own share of poor bullpen performances from players who can’t be optioned, with the Nationals (Matt Grace), Indians (Neil Ramirez, Tyler Olson) and Phillies (Jose Alvarez) all experiencing relief issues. The Phils and Rays have moved on from one out-of-options player apiece recently in the form of Aaron Altherr’s DFA and Wilmer Font’s trade, and as leaders in tight divisional races, they have less cause to be patient than other clubs. For that matter, Font’s place on the Mets is hardly etched in stone, though injuries elsewhere on the staff  (Jason Vargas, Jeurys Familia) may create a chance for him to prove himself.

A team’s level of patience is key in any evaluation of an out-of-options player, of course, and that tolerance will always be somewhat context-dependent. The Astros are the runaway favorites in the AL West, so they can afford to exercise more patience with minimal fear of missing the playoffs or even of finding themselves in a one-game Wild Card showdown. The track record of the player in question also comes into play; the Brewers were expecting more from Jesus Aguilar than he’s shown so far, but he’s a 2018 All-Star who mashed 35 home runs a year ago and has maintained an excellent batted-ball profile while actually improving upon his K/BB numbers. A rebound seems likely, and last year’s excellence gives him more of leash than others in his situation would have.

There’s still plenty of season left, but clubs are approaching the 25 percent mark of the 2019 campaign, and mid-May to early June is frequently a time when we begin to see teams make notable changes to initial roster constructions that haven’t paid dividends. Within the next few weeks, several of these scenarios will likely lead to some degree of roster turnover.

Those changes can have far-reaching effects beyond the team making the actual change, as well. Players like Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and the aforementioned Aguilar were all out-of-options castoffs before rising to prominence in new environs. That’s a rare, best-case outcome scenario but one that underscores the ripple effect that even minor transactions can have on a team’s long-term outlook.

The Marlins’ Rotation Mix Is Getting Interesting

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It’s easy to pile on the Marlins, whose late-Loria era contention efforts fell flat and left a roster mess. There have been a few debatable decisions under the Derek Jeter regime as well, though it’s only fair to wait before issuing any kind of final judgment on the team’s divestment of several high-quality young position players. Predictably, the team is the worst in the National League by a rather comfortable margin.

There are some silver linings in the area of the rotation, though, and it’s worth shining a light on them. There are some genuinely interesting arms at or near the majors. In the right light, you can even make out the outlines of a pitching core that could form the platform for a contender.

The two biggest pieces were both picked up via trade. Initially, the deal that brought in Caleb Smith  (link) was notable mostly because it cost the Fish pop-up prospect Mike King. But Smith was under-the-radar solid in a half-season of MLB rotation work and has trended way up thus far in 2019. Through his first seven starts of the new year, Smith owns a 2.11 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 42 2/3 innings. A bit of regression may be in order, but the breakthrough seems to be real. The southpaw is carrying a hefty 16.7% swinging-strike rate through increased usage of his offspeed offerings.

Smith’s showing has overshadowed the promising work of Pablo Lopez, who’s posting 9.2 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 with a 4.03 ERA through 38 frames in seven starts. There’s lots to like about the contact Lopez is generating with his four-pitch mix. He’s allowing hard contact at a meager 28.8% rate while drawing swings and misses at a sturdy 11.5% clip. Meanwhile, he’s inducing grounders 51.0% of the time and infield flies on 15.6% of the balls put in play against him. No wonder ERA estimators think he’s due for positive regression. Lopez came to the organization as a little-hyped piece in the 2017 David Phelps trade (link).

Indy ball find Trevor Richards already showed off his filthy changeup last year. He’s trending up in the ERA department (4.10 vs. 4.42) but has taken a bit of a dive in his peripherals. Still, he has improved to a strong 13.1% swinging-strike rate. Richards should continue to be a useful back-end starter and will still be shy of arbitration eligibility at the end of the season. Jose Urena isn’t turning in his best work right now, but has turned in two sub-4.00 ERA seasons and is still pumping 96 mph heat. There’s a bit more upside in the powerful right arm of Sandy Alcantara, a key piece of the Marcell Ozuna deal (link), though he’s also yet to fully harness his talent. At 23 years of age, he’s learning on the fly.

That covers the present rotation mix. Only Urena is in arbitration, who is still controllable for two more seasons beyond the present. It’s hardly an elite unit, but it’s got some legitimately interesting and potentially high-value arms.

Waiting in the wings is one of the most intriguing players in the organization. Zac Gallen also came in the Ozuna deal but wasn’t nearly as hyped. The 23-year-old had a solid showing last year in his first full season at Triple-A but has taken things to a new level thus far in 2019. Through 40 1/3 frames over six starts, he’s carrying a 1.12 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and a 49.4% groundball rate. And Gallen isn’t alone. Elieser Hernandez, a Rule 5 pick who unsurprisingly struggled in the bigs last year, has been humming as well. He’s sporting a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings over his own half-dozen starts, with 12.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Nick Neidert, who came in the Dee Gordon deal (link), has struggled to open the year but could be a near-term option if he can bounce back. Jordan Yamamoto, Jorge Guzman, and Jordan Holloway are other fairly well-regarded prospects rising through the system and possessing 40-man spots.

The highest-upside arms are still a ways off from the majors, though that likely suits the timeline just fine. Sixto Sanchez, the crown jewel of the J.T. Realmuto trade (link), is widely considered the organization’s top prospect and a potential front-line starter. Many saw that kind of upside from recent first-round draft pick Braxton Garrett before his career was interrupted by Tommy John surgery. He’s showing swing-and-miss stuff right now at the High-A level, though he has a ways to go to reestablish himself. Fellow former first-rounder Trevor Rogers is off to a solid start in his second full professional season.

So, we can see that the Marlins have found a few hidden gems — even if they’ve also failed to hit many immediately obvious home runs with their highest draft picks (ahem, Tyler Kolek) and biggest trade pieces. They’ve also unearthed one of the most interesting relievers in baseball in Nick Anderson.

Silver linings, of course, are all the more visible because they stand out against the darkness surrounding them. In this case, there’s more to the story than the general organizational malaise. The rotation picture itself is interesting not only for what’s there, but for what isn’t.

Even as they were busy gathering up some of the surprising arms listed above, the Marlins parted with a stomach-turning collection of MLB arms. Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney haven’t been as valuable as their talent level would suggest owing to injuries, but still would be nice assets to hold. Brad Hand was another dearly departed pitcher, though he thrived as a reliever after failing to stick as a starter in Miami.

But it really stings to consider four other recent departures: Luis Castillo (link); Chris Paddack (link); Domingo German (link); Trevor Williams (link). Rather remarkably, all of those former Marlins farmhands rank among the fifteen most valuable starters in all of baseball (by measure of fWAR) in the early going in 2019.

13 Early Contenders For American League Rookie Of The Year

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Before the 2019 season, it was preordained that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would take home the American League Rookie of the Year trophy, and everyone else was just fighting for second place.  That may yet be the case, but eight games into the prodigy’s career, it’s clear he has some catching up to do.  Here’s a look at the top contenders.

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays – The game’s best prospect in years, Guerrero strained an oblique during Spring Training, providing Blue Jays a little bit of cover in their plan to keep him in the minors long enough to gain a seventh year of control.  Just 34 plate appearances into his career, Vlad Jr. is fully expected to rake over the remainder of the season.
  • Eloy Jimenez, White Sox – Jimenez was allowed on Chicago’s Opening Day roster after signing a $43MM contract, and he started to come around at the plate in his final 15 games before suffering an ankle sprain.  He’s close to a rehab assignment and still has plenty of time to demonstrate why he was the typical prediction as the second-place AL ROY finisher.
  • Brandon Lowe, Rays – Lowe owns a 153 wRC+ in 121 plate appearances, mostly as the Rays’ second baseman.  His 1.5 WAR is tops among AL rookies.  Lowe also enjoys the comfort of a $24MM contract signed back in March.
  • Michael Chavis, Red Sox – Mostly playing second base for the Red Sox, Chavis made his big league debut on April 20th and has already smacked six home runs.  Chavis may eventually be squeezed for playing time once Dustin Pedroia and Brock Holt return, though not if he keeps hitting anything like this.
  • Spencer Turnbull, Tigers – If Vogelbach is the league’s most surprising rookie hitter, the 26-year-old Turnbull deserves that designation for pitchers.  Rated just a 40-grade prospect by Baseball America prior to the season, the righty claimed the Tigers’ last rotation spot out of Spring Training and never looked back.  He’s rocking a 2.31 ERA in seven starts, and even if that can’t last he’s shown himself a capable big league starter.  Having tallied 135 2/3 innings last year and 112 in 2017, it seems unlikely Turnbull will be allowed to keep his current 200-inning pace.
  • Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners – Kikuchi owns a 3.98 ERA in eight starts, including a gem last time out in Cleveland.  Having made a large investment in Kikuchi, the Mariners have a plan to periodically give him a one-inning start, which so far happened in his seventh outing.  That approach still might get him around 150 innings, so Kikuchi has a shot at the award.
  • Ty Buttrey, Angels – It’s hard to ignore what the 26-year-old Buttrey has done out of the Angels’ bullpen so far.  He’s posted a 1.06 ERA with 21 punchouts and just three walks in 17 innings and has been pitching in high leverage situations all year.  Buttrey, who has touched 100 with his fastball, looks like the Angels’ closer of the future.
  • Trent Thornton, Blue Jays – Thornton, 25, was traded by the Astros to the Blue Jays for Aledmys Diaz in November.  According to Baseball America, his curveball features one of the highest spin rates in baseball, and he “has the stuff and control to fit as a No. 4 starter with a chance for more.”  So far he has a 4.08 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in seven starts.
  • Rowdy Tellez, Blue Jays – The Jays’ DH/first baseman has popped six home runs in the early going.  If Tellez is able to approach 30 bombs in a lost season for the Jays, he’ll be in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
  • Jesus Luzardo, Athletics and Forrest Whitley, Astros – Luzardo’s impressive spring and rotation bid was cut short by a shoulder injury, though the top prospect could return to game action in June.  It seems unlikely he’ll get enough innings with the A’s to compete for the award.  Whitley, meanwhile, has been knocked around in two of his four starts at Triple-A and may also have a half-season at best in the Majors this year.
  • Danny Jansen, Blue Jays –  Jansen has started about two-thirds of the Jays’ games behind the plate, but has been awful as a hitter through 90 plate appearances.  Luke Maile hasn’t been any better, so Jansen should have a chance to shake off his April and finish as the league average hitter he was projected to be.
  • Christin Stewart, Tigers – Stewart was off to a decent start as the Tigers’ left fielder before going down with a quad injury.  He’s currently on a minor league rehab assignment and has the plus power to make some noise in the ROY race.

A correction has been made to this post, thanks to a comment from reader txtgab.  We have confirmed that Dwight Smith Jr. is in fact not rookie eligible.  Additionally, reader tieran711 has kindly pointed me to this tweet from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, which indicates that Daniel Vogelbach is also not rookie eligible.  Both players have been removed from the post.

Let us know what you think in our poll!  App users can click here.

Who will win the AL ROY?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 28.88% (1,976 votes)
Brandon Lowe 19.86% (1,359 votes)
Michael Chavis 18.62% (1,274 votes)
Eloy Jimenez 10.32% (706 votes)
Spencer Turnbull 6.58% (450 votes)
Yusei Kikuchi 4.62% (316 votes)
Ty Buttrey 4.37% (299 votes)
Rowdy Tellez 2.15% (147 votes)
Christin Stewart 1.34% (92 votes)
Jesus Luzardo 1.13% (77 votes)
Trent Thornton 0.92% (63 votes)
Forrest Whitley 0.79% (54 votes)
Danny Jansen 0.44% (30 votes)
Total Votes: 6,843

5 Players Impressing After Being Traded Out Of DFA Limbo

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Most fans don’t get too excited when their favorite teams picks up a player who’d been recently designated for assignment by another organization. There’s the occasional C.J. Cron-style exception, where a player is designated in what amounts to a salary dump, but more often than not, a player is designated for assignment after failing to take advantage of opportunities or failing to force his way up to the majors. Trades of such players rarely offer much in the way of return value, but the minimal cost of acquisition makes it all the sweeter when those speculative additions actually pan out.

It’s still relatively early in the season, but it’s not early in the season. Roughly 20 percent of the year’s games are in the books at this point, and a look around the league reveals a handful of recently designated players who were traded to another club for a negligible return, only to thrive — initially, at least — in their new surroundings. It’s probably safe to say that the original organization in each of these swaps would take a mulligan on the decision, if possible:

Dwight Smith Jr., OF, Orioles (acquired from Blue Jays): The Orioles acquired Smith Jr. from the division-rival Blue Jays in Spring Training, sending international bonus space to Toronto in return. The O’s were widely panned for years due to owner Peter Angelos’s refusal to spend on the international market, which often prompted former baseball ops leader Dan Duquette and his staff to trade away international funds for what proved to be minimal prospect returns (or as a means of dumping salary). This trade of international dollars, however, at least gave the O’s an MLB-ready player to plug into a questionable outfield mix, and Smith has made the team look outstanding. He’s hitting .292/.347/.496 with five homers, eight doubles and three steals through 124 plate appearances. He’s fanned at only a 16.9 percent clip thus far, and while his success in limited at-bats against lefties may be BABIP-driven, his overall .318 average on balls in play doesn’t look especially fluky. The Orioles have also done well on waiver claims for Pedro Severino and Hanser Alberto, but Smith looks to be their best DFA pickup since GM Mike Elias took over he club.

Nick Wittgren, RHP, Indians (acquired from Marlins): The sample size with relievers, this early in the season, is always going to be dubious, but it’s hard not to be impressed by Wittgren’s 14-to-1 K/BB ratio and one run allowed in 10 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The 27-year-old is relying more heavily on his four-seamer and curveball so far, and his opponents’ expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .224, as measured by Statcast, ranks in the 96th percentile of MLB pitchers. A few shaky outings can obviously torpedo any reliever’s numbers, but Wittgren was a surprise DFA at the time, and it looks all the more puzzling that the Marlins opted to boot him from the 40-man roster. Right-hander Jordan Milbrath, whom the Marlins acquired in return, has thrown well in 12 1/3 minor league innings this season, but he’s only two months younger than Wittgren and is pitching in Double-A.

Trevor Gott, RHP, Giants (acquired from Nationals): San Francisco picked up Gott in a trade that sent nothing more than cash to the Nationals, and he’s rewarded them with 16 innings of 1.69 ERA ball and a 17-to-3 K/BB ratio. Gott’s 95 mph heater is every bit as fast as it was with the Nats, but he’s significantly cut back on the usage of his sinker in favor of a true four-seamer. His ground-ball rate is down, as one would expect, but the overall results are nothing short of excellent. His success in San Francisco stings that much more for the Nationals given their second straight season of early bullpen implosions.

Connor Sadzeck, RHP, Mariners (acquired from Rangers): Sadzeck chucked fire with the Rangers just as he’s doing with his new club, but the Texas organization couldn’t find a way to keep the 6’7″, 240-pounder in the strike zone. Whether the Mariners will be able to do so for the long haul remains to be seen, but Sadzeck has just four walks against 13 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings with the Mariners, and his 96.8 mph average heater is right in line with last year’s overall 97 mph average. Sadzeck’s first-pitch strike rate is up eight percent from last season, and the rate at which hitters make contact on his out-of-zone pitches has plummeted from 66.7 percent to 43.5 percent. Sadzeck threw only 9 1/3 innings in the Majors last year, so all of this is reading a lot into tiny samples of data, but so far, the Sadzeck swap looks great for the Mariners. Texas picked up righty Grant Anderson, the Mariners’ 21st-round pick last year, in return. He’s pitched 13 solid innings in Class-A ball but isn’t facing advanced competition relative to his age.

Tom Murphy, C, Mariners (acquired from Giants): The Giants only had Murphy briefly, as they claimed him off waivers from the Rockies and then promptly traded him to Seattle for 20-year-old righty Jesus Ozoria. Murphy has hit well in the nine games he’s logged with the Mariners, but if there’s anyone on this list whose success is especially worth taking with a grain of salt, it’s his. He’s punched out 13 times in 33 PAs, and we have a few years worth of data at the big league level to suggest that Murphy struggles against big league pitching. Still, he’s a former Top 100 prospect who has a productive history in Triple-A, and Seattle acquired him at minimal cost. It’s at least worth keeping an eye on him over the course of the season to see how things go; the Giants have been cycling through veteran catchers left and right, while the Rockies haven’t received any offense from behind the plate in several years.

—

As emphasized throughout, there’s plenty of time for any of these swaps to turn into afterthoughts, but the early success of each player in question makes him more intriguing to follow than most players involved in relatively minor DFA trades. Any organization needs to have success in the draft, in free agency (both domestic and international) and in larger-scale trades in order to put together a winning roster, but a diamond in the rough or two along the way can certainly help to expedite the process.

Could Elvis Andrus Opt Out This Fall?

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When MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently laid out the opt-out decisions that will await several players at the end of the season, he was only willing to go so far as to give Elvis Andrus “an actual chance” at holding enough value to punt the three years (2020-22) and $43MM left on his deal with the Rangers. Now, with a month of the season in the books, Andrus has out-WARred all but five other position players leaguewide. Is it time we upgrade the likelihood that he opts out?

When the Rangers inked the contract at the outset of the 2013 season, it was done in no small part on the club’s faith in Andrus’s ability to continue growing at the plate after two near-average offensive season. That did not come to pass. Instead, he limped to a cumulative .264/.317/.340 slash over three rough campaigns.

At that point, after the ’15 season, the Andrus contract looked to be well under water. But things have ticked up since. As Steve noted in the above-linked post, Andrus went on a healthy .301/.352/.459 run from the start of the 2016 campaign through the point last April when he suffered a fractured elbow. The 2016-17 seasons were by far his most productive offensively.

Unfortunately, Andrus struggled upon his return to action in 2019, finishing the year with a .256/.308/.367 batting line that looks more like his forgettable 2013-15 effort than his intervening turnaround. With the way things shook out, he unsurprisingly elected not to take the first of his two consecutive opt-out opportunities last falls.

Moving back to the present, we’re looking at the best version of Andrus that we’ve yet seen. He’s on pace to top his twenty-homer outburst from ’17 (his only double-digit-dinger campaign to date) and carrying a hefty .231 isolated power mark. Andrus has also swiped six bags to go with his five long balls, further boosting his contribution to what has been one of the game’s most prolific offenses in the early going.

Add it all up, and Andrus owns an eye-popping .361/.425/.583 batting line (164 wRC+) through his first 120 plate appearances. Sure, it’s based in no small part on a .425 batting average on balls in play, but that’s also a reflection of the fact that he’s stinging the ball.

Statcast unsurprisingly anticipates some regression down from Andrus’s stunning .436 wOBA, but still credits him with a sturdy .385 xwOBA for his work thus far. Though he’s swinging and missing more than ever before, with more strikeouts also resulting, the tradeoff has been well worth it. Driven by a more aggressive approach, Andrus is working at heretofore unseen levels in terms of exit velocity (90.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.8%).

So, we’ve got some evidence of an underlying change that is helping to spur the improvements. And we already know Andrus has a surprising power reservoir. He isn’t the first contact-oriented hitter to figure out a way to tweak his output. In this case, it’ll be interesting to see how the numbers begin to settle out over a lengthier sample. Andrus is putting one of every four long balls out of the yard, which won’t continue. But perhaps he can maintain an higher-than-expected homer-per-flyball ratio if he keeps punishing line drives. He’s sitting at a career-best 31.3% rate and has yet to produce an infield fly. Andrus’s average launch angle is actually down quite a bit from recent seasons (to just 6.1 degrees), but when he has put a bit of loft on the ball it has tended to travel far. That approach likely won’t lead to a huge number of home runs, but might enable Andrus to carry good power (with a healthy number of doubles and triples) while also maintaining quite a high batting average and solid OBP.

The offensive arrow is generally pointed upward, if perhaps not at quite as steep a grade as his actual output would suggest. Andrus only carries average foot speed, but he’s still a clear plus on the basepaths with a strong history of adding value there. Of course, future expectations (with the bat and on foot) are also tempered by the inevitable march of time. There are also legitimate questions about where Andrus’s glovework stands and where it’s headed. He has held a rather steady profile in recent years, floating in range of average by measure of both UZR and DRS. The latter sees a drop-off thus far (-3 runs), though it’s too early to weigh that much at all.

Market context is always a critical factor as well. With multiple prominent players signing extensions, the top of the 2019-20 market already looks quite a bit weaker than anticipated — and that’s before potential injuries and/or performance issues. It’s not a bad time for a middle infielder to reach the open market, particularly now that Xander Bogaerts has elected to remain in Boston. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranks Didi Gregorius among the top ten potential earners at present, so there’s some possible competition, but the rest of the shortstop market fails to inspire and there are few certainties among second base candidates.

While there are some very good reasons to believe that Andrus could end up wanting to opt out, I still think it’s rather unlikely. While the Rangers haven’t secured all the value they hoped for in their deal with Andrus, they’ve done well enough. That’s due largely to the fact that he was so young when it was signed. And that attribute no longer holds. Andrus turns 31 in August of this year, meaning that he’d be shopping his age-32+ campaigns to prospective suitors.

The age element is of critical importance in a market setting in which teams are increasingly drawing back the length of the contracts they are willing to offer. It wasn’t long ago that a 34-year-old utilityman Ben Zobrist got a four-year commitment, but there’s good reason to think now that teams will be looking to cap off a deal at three or perhaps four seasons with a player such as Andrus. Plus, he’s not likely to command a super-premium salary. Despite heavy pursuit from multiple teams, Zobrist went for $14MM annually — just what Andrus is earning at present. Third baseman Justin Turner got a bit more ($16MM a year for four seasons) but was on a whole different level with the bat. Xander Bogaerts just took down $20MM AAV in an extension scenario on the heels of a monster 2018 season, but it would be surprising for the older and less offensively accomplished Andrus to reach that figure. Notably, that deal also only runs through his age-32 season.

If there’s a single, defining market data point for Andrus’s outlook, though, it’s the deal Zack Cozart signed with the Angels in advance of the 2018 season. The two players share quite a few characteristics. Cozart hit the market in advance of his age-32 season after posting an offensive outbreak. His showing was buttressed by some recent, quality offensive seasons but he had struggled at the plate previously in his career and had never previously approached his platform-season levels. Cozart had a significant advantage over Andrus in glovework, but was a bit older and had a more worrying health track record. He settled for a three-year, $38MM deal and had to move off of the shortstop position despite carrying some of the game’s very best leather.

Ultimately, even if Andrus sustains a compelling breakout all season long, it’s a bit difficult to see him commanding a deal that handily tops the three years and $43MM he already has in hand. Teams may be comforted by the fact that Andrus is a surehanded defender who could slide to second or third base at some point, but that sort of consideration won’t drive his market any more than it did Cozart’s. At most, opting out might mean chasing another year at a similar salary. That may not warrant the risk of entering free agency with qualifying offer-related draft compensation hanging over his head. Andrus could approach the Rangers in hopes of negotiating a new deal, dangling the threat of the opt-out, but the team doesn’t seem likely to bid against itself. If there’s an opening for Andrus to opt out, even after this phenomenal start, it’s a rather narrow one.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Since we last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class, seven more potential free agents came off the board: Chris Sale, Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Matt Carpenter, Khris Davis, and Ryan Pressly.  This came after Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Aaron Hicks, and Nolan Arenado had already decided to eschew free agency.  Meanwhile, pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still without teams, serving as a warning for those thinking of testing the market.

In theory, the open market should always generate the best offers, even if the potential loss of a draft pick enters the equation.  Still, for many players it isn’t worth enduring a potentially brutal free agency process in an attempt to squeeze out that last $20MM at the risk of a Keuchel/Kimbrel debacle, when you’re signing for generational money regardless.  That’s why this list keeps getting less and less impressive each time we do it.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.  To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole jumps to the top of this list simply by virtue of the Red Sox locking down Sale and Bogaerts.  Cole, 28, has been homer-prone in his first six starts, but it’s really just one rough outing in Texas that has thrown off his ERA.  Sale is a comparable worth considering.  Sale’s new contract takes him through the age of 35, one year short of David Price, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester and two years short of Zack Greinke.  Cole’s argument is that he, too, should require a commitment through age 35, which would necessitate a seven-year deal.  For all that went wrong for free agents in the 2018-19 offseason, Patrick Corbin still got a strong six-year contract with a shorter track record than Cole.  In the end, Cole needs a good old-fashioned bidding war to develop, and teams have become increasingly reluctant to enter into those.  Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote on March 22nd that the Astros were discussing extensions with both Cole and rotation-mate Justin Verlander, and shortly after that they inked Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension.  I’d say that decreases the chances of the Astros extending Cole.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  Rendon, 28, got off to a blazing start this year for the Nationals before a Jose Urena fastball struck his elbow on April 20th and ended a 17-game hitting streak.  He’s played in one game since that HBP but seems to have avoided significant injury.  Jose Altuve’s five-year, $151MM extension with the Astros, signed about a year ago, lines up well with Rendon.  Nolan Arenado’s deal further cemented the idea that teams are mostly willing to pay through age 34 rather than 35.  The x-factor might be Paul Goldschmidt, a player perhaps inferior to Rendon who was extended through age 36 by the Cardinals.  So look for Rendon to try for a six-year deal, though he could end with five.  The last we heard on extension talks with the Nationals was from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman on April 18th, who tweeted that “there’s believed to be a decent-sized gap remaining” between the two sides.

3.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna, 28, fell short of expectations last year after the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins.  It’s possible shoulder soreness was to blame, with Ozuna undergoing surgery to address the issue after the season.  The shoulder doesn’t seem to be affecting his hitting early on in 2019, as Ozuna has 10 home runs in his last 79 plate appearances.  With a season more like Ozuna’s 2017 campaign, he should have a good chance at a five-year deal.  It’s worth noting that the three potential free agents currently topping this list are all clients of the Boras Corporation.

4.  Madison Bumgarner.  Despite a 4.30 ERA across six starts, Bumgarner’s early results for the Giants have been promising.  After last year’s career-worst walk rate, he’s issuing free passes to a career-best 3.3% of batters in the small 37 2/3 inning sample.  A vintage 200 inning campaign from Bumgarner should set him up nicely for a strong four-year deal in free agency.  He’ll also be one of the best trade chips on the market in July, and a trade would remove the qualifying offer issue that has partially plagued Keuchel.

5.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, has come on strong in his last three starts after a seven-walk outing on April 7th.  The hard-throwing righty is now four years removed from Tommy John surgery, though he did go two and a half years between MLB starts as he recovered.  The goal has to be a five-year deal through age 34, but he may have to settle for four.  It’s all about staying healthy for these next 25 starts.  The Mikolas/Nathan Eovaldi deals, at four years and $68MM, could be a marker for Wheeler.  Unlike Eovaldi, Wheeler may be dealing with a qualifying offer.

6.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius is currently recovering from October Tommy John surgery.  His recovery is going smoothly, though there’s no public timetable on his return.  In the meantime, it’s mostly been Gleyber Torres holding down the fort at shortstop for the Yankees after Troy Tulowitzki strained his calf on April 3rd.  With Bogaerts off the board, Gregorius will be the best available shortstop if the Yankees don’t lock him up prior to free agency.  A four-year deal seems plausible if he comes back strong, though Gregorius will likely receive a qualifying offer.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has been one of the game’s best hitters over the last two years.  He’s off to a strong start this year, though he’s missed a few games of late due to back spasms.  Martinez is, of course, limited in that he primarily serves as a designated hitter.  The players union continues to advocate for the National League to get the DH, so we’ll see whether the owners agree in the near future and vastly open up Martinez’s market.  Later this year, Martinez will be 32 when he’ll be faced with deciding whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM remaining on his contract.  The safe move is to just stick with his current deal, especially since the Red Sox could saddle Martinez with a qualifying offer if he opts out.

8.  Josh Donaldson.  After an injury-marred 2018 season, Donaldson signed a hefty one-year, $23MM deal with the Braves.  A 30 home run, 80 walk type season in the middle of the Braves’ lineup would likely result in some solid multiyear offers for the former MVP.  However, Donaldson will turn 34 in December, so the offers may top out at two years with a strong AAV.  Another complication is that Donaldson could receive a qualifying offer from the Braves.

9.  Yasmani Grandal.  Like Donaldson, Grandal inked a significant one-year deal in free agency this past winter.  However, Grandal turned down multiyear offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins, and Angels, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic.  The catcher explained in January at his Brewers press conference, “I had a lot of good deals.  One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, to mention a few of them.”  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM before ultimately landing his one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  If Grandal’s strong start to the season continues, his gambit just might pay off, as even something like three years and $42MM would get him past $60MM for 2019-22.  This time around, he won’t be saddled with a qualifying offer.

10.  Yasiel Puig.  In the first month of his Reds career, Puig has lived up to his Wild Horse nickname by, as Deadspin described it, attempting to “fight all of Pittsburgh.”  He’s here on this list because of his abilities as a hitter, which have decidedly not manifested themselves through 96 plate appearances.  His strikeout and walk rates are career worsts in the early going, but he has five months to turn it around and earn a multiyear contract in free agency.

Honorable mentions: Nicholas Castellanos, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Cole Hamels

 

Checking In On Last Year’s Least Valuable Hitters

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Of the 278 major leaguers who racked up at least 300 plate appearances last season, FanGraphs assigned negative wins above replacement marks to 28. Most of those players are back in action this year, and with the season now a month old, we’ll focus on the 10 active major leaguers who posted the lowest fWARs in 2018. As you’ll see below, a few look to be enjoying nice rebound campaigns.

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (2018 fWAR: minus-3.1):

By now, everyone who follows baseball knows about Davis’ stark drop-off. He has devolved from one of the game’s fiercest sluggers a few years ago to an easy out nowadays. Davis was abysmal last season and has been similarly woeful across 71 plate appearances this year, evidenced by a .158/.239/.344 line and a 38 percent strikeout rate. The 33-year-old went from Sept. 14 of last season to April 15 of the current campaign without recording a hit – a record 54-AB drought. Davis has been better since he broke that skid, but that’s not saying much. The Orioles will pay him through 2037 on the $161MM contract he signed in January 2016 as an imposing offensive presence.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals (2018 fWAR: minus-1.2):

Now in the third season of a five-year, $82.5MM contract, Fowler has come back strong from an injury- and depression-marred 2018. The switch-hitting 33-year-old has reverted to his halcyon days with a .316/.419/.430 slash in 93 PA, albeit with little power (one HR, .114 ISO) and a sure-to-fall .414 batting average on balls in play. For now, though, it’s a great comeback story.

Yangervis Solarte, INF/OF, Giants (2018 fWAR: minus-1.3):

For the most part, Solarte was a decent producer with the Yankees and Padres from 2014-17. The switch hitter nosedived as a Blue Jay last year, though, which forced him to sign a minor league deal with the Giants this past offseason. While the 31-year-old did crack San Francisco’s talent-deprived roster, he hasn’t been part of the solution to this point. Thus far, Solarte has batted a career-worst .218/.271/.345 in 60 trips to the plate.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins (2018 fWAR: minus-1.0):

Brinson was the centerpiece of the Marlins’ return for outfielder Christian Yelich, whom they traded to the Brewers in January 2018. At that point, Brinson was a top prospect and Yelich an underrated star. Yelich is no longer flying under the radar, having blossomed into an MVP-winning force as a Brewer, which is all the more unfortunate for the Marlins given Brinson’s lack of progress. Set to turn 25 next month, Brinson has been awful in a Miami uniform. He’s off to a .192/.244/.260 start with no homers and a 34.1 percent strikeout rate against a 2.4 percent walk mark in 82 PA this season.

Hunter Dozier, 3B/1B/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Dozier has seemingly morphed from one of the majors’ worst players to one of its best. The 27-year-old entered Sunday fourth in the game in wRC+ (197), fifth in fWAR (1.6) and ninth in isolated power (.363), owing to an incredible .349/.444/.699 line with seven HRs in 99 PA. Dozier’s also walking and striking out at praiseworthy clips (14.1 and 18.2 percent, respectively) and barely chasing pitches outside the strike zone. His swings have led to a .474 weighted on-base average, which sits fifth in the league. Both that and Dozier’s .373 BABIP will regress, though his .431 xwOBA hardly suggests his performance is driven by luck. The Royals just might have an offensive star on their hands in Dozier, which is what they envisioned when they drafted him eighth overall in 2013.

Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Healy was a terrific producer as an Athletic in 2016, his rookie season, but an unrepeatable BABIP and a low walk rate indicated his 132 wRC+ was largely the product of good fortune. Indeed, Healy’s output plummeted from 2017-18 as an Athletic and Mariner. He has come out of the gates in respectable fashion this year as a fill-in for injured third baseman Kyle Seager, though, with a .232/.302/.473 line and five HRs in 126 PA. Healy’s BABIP is just .244 – down 108 points from his rookie season – and he’s easily running career-best walk and out-of-zone swing percentages (8.7, 25.9). But his xwOBA is still a below-average .314, which lands shy of a .332 wOBA that’s not particularly menacing in its own right.

Chris Owings, INF/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Last season was no banner year for Owings, but that didn’t stop the Royals from guaranteeing the ex-Diamondback $3MM in free agency. The return on investment hasn’t been there so far, as the 27-year-old has stumbled to an unsightly .163/.230/.283 line with minus-0.3 fWAR in 100 trips to the plate.

Ian Desmond, OF/1B, Rockies (2018 fWAR: minus-0.7):

Desmond was effective as a National and Ranger from 2009-16, when he spent his time at shortstop and in center field. For some reason, the Rockies gave him $70MM in December 2016 to play first base. The deal didn’t work out at all over its first two years, which helped convince the Rockies to shift Desmond back to center this season. That hasn’t gone well either. After putting up minus-1.5 fWAR in Colorado from 2017-18, he’s already at minus-0.8 through 92 PA in 2019, thanks to a .198/.239/.349 line. To his credit, Desmond has greatly increased his fly balls/line drives and decreased his grounders this season, and his xwOBA (.278) is leagues better than his wOBA (.219). However, none of that is to say the 33-year-old is verging on of any kind of renaissance.

Tim Beckham, SS, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Beckham joins Dozier as another potential late-blooming former first-round pick on this list. While Beckham went first overall to the Rays in the 2008 draft, he seldom lived up to the billing with them or the Orioles from 2013-18. Beckham was downright bad in 2018, which led him to accept a cheap deal with the Mariners in the offseason. Now, he’s a .286/.359/.533 hitter with six long balls in 117 attempts. Neither Beckham’s .375 BABIP nor 27.3 percent HR-to-fly ball rate will stick, but the 29-year-old has made real strides in the plate discipline department. He’s walking at a career-high clip and swinging at far fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in prior seasons.

James McCann, C, White Sox (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Like Beckham, McCann had to say yes to a prove-it deal in the offseason after a 2018 to forget.  It’s working out so far for Chicago, which has seen the former Tiger slash .333/.382/.490 in 55 trips to the plate and earn plus marks as a defender. McCann, 28, is yet another player who’s walking more than ever and swinging less outside the zone. His .405 BABIP certainly won’t hold, but the .354 xwOBA is more than acceptable for a catcher.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the final post in MLBTR’s annual series reviewing the offseason efforts of every team in baseball.

The 2018-19 offseason marked yet another winter of measured free-agent spending and luxury-tax-motivated trades for the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Clayton Kershaw: One year, $28MM (bringing his total contract to three years, $93MM)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Dodgers organizational depth chart][Dodgers payroll information]

Needs Addressed

We’ve reached the point where it should be accepted that despite their extraordinarily deep pockets, the Dodgers aren’t going to flex their financial might to their fullest extent. That’s not a knock on the organization, which has been extremely successful under the current ownership group and front office regime, but simply an acknowledgement that the team’s days of MLB-leading payrolls look to be a thing of the past.

At the outset of free agency, we at MLBTR predicted that the Dodgers, who dipped under the luxury tax line in 2018, would be the team to agree to a lengthy contract with Bryce Harper. That was never particularly close to happening, as the Dodgers sought to sign Harper to a record-shattering annual value but only on a four- or five-year deal. Perhaps, if they can find a free agent amenable to such a structure in the future, the Dodgers will exceed the luxury line again, but it was reported this offseason that the organization has drawn up plans to avoid doing so for the next several seasons. The trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey — whom they immediately released — and a pair of prospects meshed with that directive.

The Dodgers’ first order of business this winter came in the form of finding a middle ground with Clayton Kershaw, who could have opted out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract. An extension was long viewed as a strong possibility, and in the end, the Dodgers locked up Kershaw on a deal even friendlier than many expected. Kershaw tacked an extra year and $28MM onto his preexisting deal in exchange for forgoing his opt-out provision, allowing the club to maintain one of the generation’s most dominant pitchers at an affordable rate. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, and he’ll probably never sustain the level of dominance he once did, but there’s no denying his ongoing excellence when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. A $31MM annual rate is nearly as steep as it gets for a pitcher in baseball, but Kershaw notched a 2.73 ERA in 161 1/3 innings and was worth 3.3 WAR (per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) in last year’s “down” season.

With Kershaw taken care of, the Dodgers began eyeing upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Rather than earnestly pursue the market’s top names, the Dodgers were aggressive in the second tier of free agency. A.J. Pollock was arguably the best non-Harper outfielder on the market and was compensated as such ($55MM in guaranteed money), while the flamethrowing Joe Kelly was regarded as one of the top non-Craig Kimbrel relievers. (His addition hasn’t paid early dividends, but Kelly’s .410 BABIP will regress over time, and metrics like xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.27) point to brighter days ahead.) Both were brought in on contracts with manageable annual salaries for a team with pockets this deep.

Having issued Yasmani Grandal a qualifying offer he unsurprisingly rejected, the Dodgers were involved in the J.T. Realmuto market for much of the offseason. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t willing to meet the prospect price tag put on Realmuto by the Marlins and instead shifted focus to old friend Russell Martin. While Martin’s bat is nowhere near what it once was, he maintained an elite walk rate and framing skills in 2018.

The other qualifying offer issued by the Dodgers went to lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who accepted the $17.9MM payday rather than test his strong but injury-riddled track record on the open market. At the time, it was at least worth wondering whether a team might’ve committed multiple years and a slightly higher guarantee (at a lower annual rate) to Ryu. However, given the manner in which the offseason played out, Ryu has to be quite happy with his decision to remain in Los Angeles at a premium rate. His return gave the Dodgers an even more enviable collection of rotation depth, joining Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling (among others).

Corey Seager’s return to the lineup only bolstered the Dodgers’ offensive potential, and Alex Verdugo’s ascension up the minor league ladder gives the Dodgers another high-upside bat upon which to dream. Verdugo’s rise (and the signing of Pollock) allowed L.A. to at least explore the possibility of trading Joc Pederson this winter, with the Braves and White Sox among the rumored suitors. However, there was apparently never anything that convinced the Dodgers to take the plunge, and Pederson remains on hand as part of a roster that features largely unmatched depth in both the infield and outfield.

Questions Remaining

That’s not to say that there aren’t questions surrounding the roster even in light of a hot start to the season. The lineup is deep and more dangerous than ever thanks to Cody Bellinger doing his best Ted Williams impression, but it’s hard not to look at the pairing of Martin and Austin Barnes behind the dish and wonder whether the duo brings enough offense to the table. The asking price for Realmuto from the Dodgers was surely steep, but imagining a lineup that pairs him with this version of Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers’ potent bats seems almost unfair to opposing pitchers. Biting that bullet could’ve made this lineup into a veritable juggernaut, and it’s not hard to see the Dodgers seeking catching help come July. Perhaps catching prospect Will Smith will be MLB-ready by that point, but that’s hardly a given.

It’s a somewhat similar tale in the bullpen, where the Dodgers have ample options but relatively little in terms of established arms. Kenley Jansen has begun to show signs that he is, in fact, human after years of unhittable ninth-inning mastery, and while Kelly was brought in as an expected top-quality setup option, the Dodgers took their typical approach of cobbling together a relief unit beyond that point. Pedro Baez has been a good but sometimes shaky option in the ’pen for years. Dylan Floro is one of the quietest bargain finds the Dodgers have made.

But the mix of JT Chargois, Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz isn’t as solid as one would expect from a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. It’s true that Julio Urias and Tony Cingrani are also factors, but durability questions with that duo are even more pronounced than with most relievers. Adding another arm to the ’pen to deepen the mix would’ve been prudent, and it seems almost inevitable that the Dodgers will be in that market a couple months from now. There’s a clear on-paper match with Craig Kimbrel, but signing him would push the team into luxury tax territory, and Kimbrel’s asking price apparently hasn’t dropped to the point where Los Angeles (or any other club) is willing to jump on board. It doesn’t seem all that likely that they’ll be the team to sign him in the end.

2019 Season Outlook

The Dodgers entered the season as clear favorites in the National League West, and a poor start to the season for their primary competitors in Denver didn’t do much to change that line of thinking. Surprisingly hot starts from the upstart Padres and the wait-aren’t-they-kind-of-rebuilding Diamondbacks have added an interesting wrinkle to the division, but the Dodgers are still pacing the group. With the talent and depth cultivated by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff, as well as that group’s willingness to make a trade to plug holes as they arise, the Dodgers are still the favorites to take the NL West. Whether they can finally get over the hump and convert a postseason berth into a World Series trophy is the true question.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?
B 41.85% (1,125 votes)
C 32.37% (870 votes)
A 10.94% (294 votes)
D 8.78% (236 votes)
F 6.06% (163 votes)
Total Votes: 2,688

10 Early-Season Breakout Relievers

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The pitching arms race is in a fascinating place. There’s velocity everywhere you look. Pitch development and analysis has grown by leaps and bounds. Physical tools interact with tunneling and sequencing/location strategies. It’s an ever-changing landscape, leaving ample room for players to emerge — particularly in the relief realm, where a hurler may only be a tweak or two away from emerging as a dominant force. (The opposite also holds true.)

Let’s take a look around the league at some relief pitchers who have debuted or exhibited intriguing new performance levels in 2019 and consider which seem most likely to continue:

Nick Anderson, Marlins: When you’re a relief pitcher with a rebuilding club who turns 29 in the summer of your debut season, expectations just aren’t going to be all that high. A seemingly minor pre-Rule 5 trade acquisition, Anderson has taken off in Miami with 11 innings of 2.45 ERA pitching and a whopping 22 strikeouts on an 18.4% swinging-strike rate. He has only handed out two free passes, both of them intentional walks. The Twins would surely like a re-do on the decision to part with Anderson. (Their own late-blooming relief success story, Ryne Harper, doesn’t have nearly the shiny peripherals to support his useful showing thus far.)

Robert Stephenson, Reds: It was do-or-die time for the 26-year-old former top prospect, who’s out of options. He’s doing quite nicely thus far, with a 2.08 ERA and 12.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 13 innings of action. While the talent has never been in question, the results have never really been there for Stephenson. But he’s thriving in a pen role and showing that the stuff plays legitimately against MLB hitters, with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaning heavily on his slider (59.3%), mixing that primarily with a 94.9 mph fastball. It seems the tools are there for continued success.

Sam Gaviglio, Blue Jays: Sometimes, moving from the rotation to the pen results in a boost, and that seems to be the case here. All the arrows are pointing up for the righty as he closes in on his 29th birthday: K%-BB% (25.9%); swinging-strike rate (16.9%); groundball rate (54.3%). He still doesn’t throw hard, but he’s closer to 90 mph on average than ever before with his sinker. And in a relief capacity, Gaviglio has been able to go much more frequently to his slider (44.6%). With a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, the results have followed.

Brandon Brennan, Mariners: 9.6 K/9 vs. 2.4 BB/9 and a 58.3% grounder rate? That’ll work. It’s a 15-inning sample, but an impressive one for a player who was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after signing a minor-league deal with another club. He’s carrying a hefty 16.3% swinging-strike rate while punishing opposing hitters with equal doses of a mid-nineties heater and evidently improved change. Seattle may well have a keeper in the 27-year-old righty.

Trevor Gott, Giants: After failing to turn the corner for several seasons with the Nats, Gott has finally seemed to get it in San Francisco. Through 13 innings he owns a 2.08 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Gone are the grounders that were once his greatest attribute; also missing so far are the homers that plagued him. Gott is now working primarily off of a four-seamer instead of a two-seamer, allowing him to nearly triple his swinging-strike rate from last year (5.6% to 14.2%).

Luke Jackson, Braves: Though he threw 91 1/3 innings with Atlanta over the prior two seasons, Jackson was bounced from the 40-man roster on several occasions and was never secure in a role. He may be on to something in 2019, though. He’s still handing out too many walks, but Jackson has also bumped his swing-and-miss capabilities (11.9 K/9, 15.0% SwStr%) by boosting his slider usage (52.2%) and drawing more chases out of the zone (41.1%). Most fascinating of all? Through 11 1/3 innings, Jackson is a groundball monster, with 21 of the 28 balls put in play against him classed as grounders. Average opponent launch angle? A smooth -5.6 degrees.

Connor Sadzeck, Mariners: While he got results in a brief stint last year with the Rangers, there were glaring walk issues. Sadzeck has righted the ship so far with his new organization, allowing one earned in eight frames with nine strikeouts and three walks. He’s going to his slider more than half the time and generating a solid 13.6% swinging-strike rate thus far. Most importantly, getting strikes on 60.0% of his first pitches has set Sadzeck up to continue limiting the free passes.

Nick Wittgren, Indians: In the bullpen game, you win some, you lose some. Miami parted with Wittgren after the 27-year-old turned in a solid but hardly overwhelming 2018 season. He seems to have found another gear in Cleveland, though it remains to be seen whether it’s sustainable. Wittgren has eleven strikeouts without a walk through eight innings and is carrying a 58.8% groundball rate — markers of dominance he has never previously hinted at. He’s throwing much the same pitches at much the same speeds and generating only an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, so it seems there may be some short-sample hijinks at play.

Ian Kennedy, Royals: The 34-year-old is a veritable rookie as a reliever, having spent the virtual entirety of his pro career to this point in a rotation. He’s finding new life as a pen piece, working to a 1.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 along with a 48.5% groundball rate over 12 2/3 frames. He hasn’t found new heights in the swing-and-miss department (10.3% is at, but not over, his career ceiling as a starter) but is working with newfound velocity (94.2 mph average four-seamer) and seems to have benefited from shelving his change in favor of his curve.

Jake Newberry, Royals: A much younger K.C. entrant takes the final spot (which could also have gone to newcomer Richard Lovelady or a few other contenders). Another hurler who is finding success with heavy slider usage, Newberry has boosted his swinging-strike rate from under ten percent last year to 15.8% in 2019. He’s rarely in the zone (31.5%) but has a 10:1 K/BB ratio over eight innings since he is getting first strikes three out of five times and having no problem convincing opposing batters to chase out of the zone (36.8%). The 24-year-old is inducing loads of fly balls, which could spell trouble if they begin to leave the yard. It’s a delicate balancing act that’ll be tough to sustain.

Honorable mention (or: “what about [player x]?!”):

Guys like Matt Barnes, Reyes Moronta, and Lou Trivino have had too much success in the past to be considered, even if they are making further strides. Marcus Walden and Ty Buttrey were closer cases given their thinner track records, but largely showed their current form last season. Nick Burdi might have been considered despite his ugly ERA but for his unfortunate recent injury. Wander Suero, Giovanny Gallegos, Adam Morgan, Daniel Stumpf, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, and Kyle Ryan are among the pitchers who have shown quality swinging-strike rates or other intriguing developments. But they all had less innings and/or greater warts than the players listed above. I’d almost certainly have given a spot to John Means, but he’s not being utilized as a traditional short reliever.

Minor-League Signees Seeing Significant MLB Action: Relief Pitchers

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We recently explored the position players who earned big early-season roles after entering camp on minor-league deals. That’s no guarantee of continued success — or even ongoing opportunities. Some have already been dropped from their respective rosters. The same holds to an even greater extent in the ever-changing world of relief pitching.

Let’s have a look at the relievers who have already thrown at least six frames after settling for minors pacts over the offseasons …

  • Nick Vincent, Giants: Perhaps we should stop being surprised by Vincent, who has mostly churned out quality results at the MLB level. He owns a 2.03 ERA through 13 1/3 innings with the Giants and is on track to hold onto a big-league job all season long — perhaps in a different city, if he’s dealt.
  • Alex Wilson, Brewers: Another pitcher who struggled to find a job despite an established track record of solid innings, Wilson has not found success thus far in Milwaukee. He’s generating 10.6 K/9 but an untenable 6.6 BB/9 and 1.64 HR/9, leaving him with an unsightly 8.18 ERA.
  • Ryne Harper, Twins: He’s carrying a 2.70 ERA through ten frames of action. While the peripherals don’t jump off of the page, it’s a solid start for a pitcher who waited a long time for a shot at the majors.
  • Javy Guerra, Blue Jays: Though he was recently designated for assignment, Guerra was able to generate a dozen strikeouts in ten innings. He did that in spite of a middling 6.5% swinging-strike rate, however, and was drawing grounders just 28.0% of the time.
  • Luis Avilan, Mets: The 29-year-old has generated very little soft contact to this point and has coughed up two long balls. That has left him with ten earned runs in his nine innings, though the Mets will likely allow him some leash to right the ship.
  • Luke Bard, Angels: He was given a shot to open the season but was just optioned after 8 2/3 innings. Bard gave up three long balls in that span, but did show a 13.6% swinging-strike rate and managed to hold onto his 40-man spot for the time being.
  • Jeanmar Gomez, Rangers: The veteran has solid K/BB numbers but has been tagged for a whopping .481 batting average on balls in play. He’s just not fooling anyone at the moment (6.3% SwStr%, 50.0% hard-hit rate).
  • Francisco Liriano, Pirates: It has been a pleasing return to Pittsburgh for the southpaw, who’s getting strikeouts (12.3 per nine) and grounders (52.6%) to begin the season. The 35-year-old is also doling out a few too many free passes, as usual, but a 14.8% swinging-strike rate suggests that the ball is coming out of his hand well.
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