Top 60 Trade Candidates At The All-Star Break
This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.
It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Without further ado:
1-2. Will Smith, RP & Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants (Last Ranked: 1, 2): Yeah, the Giants are still within shouting distance of Wild Card position — but they still have the NL’s third-worst record. There are a host of teams ahead of them that look better on paper and have greater motivation to keep pressing to contend. The San Francisco club remains well-positioned to take advantage of holding arguably the two best rental chips on the market (along with other trade assets).
3. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (LR: 47): With the Mets collapsing since our last ranking, Wheeler flies up the board. We’ll respect the results of our recent survey and list MadBum first, but there are probably some teams that will be more interested in the younger, cheaper, harder-throwing New York hurler. By most standards, Wheeler looks much the same as he did in his eye-opening 2018 campaign. he has allowed a few more long balls and a greater batting average on balls in play while carrying a lower strand rate, which helps explain why his ERA has ballooned from 3.31 to 4.69. He has allowed more hard contact, but Wheeler’s velocity and strikeout rates have headed northward.
4-5. Ken Giles, RP & Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays (LR: INJ, 3): Both Jays hurlers are controlled through the 2020 season, and both are throwing well. In fact, “well” is an understatement for Giles, who has pitched to a sensational 1.45 ERA with better than 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Stroman’s numbers aren’t quite so gaudy, but the ground-ball machine is on pace for his third 200-inning season in the past four years while maintaining an ERA in the low 3.00s. Smith and Bumgarner might be the top starter/reliever rental combo on the market, but this duo is the best starter/reliever pair with control beyond the current season.
6. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers (LR: 8): We noted in our first ranking that the 27-year-old could move up the ladder if he kept up a hot streak, and he has done just that. He sprints into the rental-bat lead after a .354/.420/.532 run over his past twenty games. The return here probably won’t be that strong — even a red-hot J.D. Martinez netted the Tigers a lackluster return as a rental two summers ago — but Castellanos is among the game’s safest bets to be traded.
7-8. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP (LR: 11, 12): We had this pair of quality relievers stashed a bit further down the list the last time around, owing to the fact that neither absolutely must be traded with another season of arbitration eligibility remaining. But that reasoning increasingly feels strained given the dearth of worthwhile rental relievers on the market this year. The quietly excellent Dyson doesn’t have quite the shiny ERA or recent save numbers of Greene, but he’s arguably as good or better. Both hurlers profile as groundball-heavy setup men for most contenders.
9. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers (LR: 9): There’s no rush or need for Detroit to move Boyd, who is controlled all the way through 2022, but interest in him is strong. Boyd’s strikeout rate has exploded in 2019, as he’s averaging 12 strikeouts against just 1.7 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s been plagued by the long ball of late — as has much of the league despite commissioner Rob Manfred’s claim of no intentional alterations to the ball — but Boyd is the best long-term arm that is likely to be available this month. We admittedly may use the term “controllable” too aggressively for players like Stroman, Giles and others signed for only one more season; Boyd is the epitome of a “controllable” trade asset, though.
10-11. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP (LR: 6, 7): Both of these pending-free-agent lefty specialists were tagged in their most recent outings, but teams will take broader views of their merits. They’re among the likeliest players to be dealt in the league.
12. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: NR): Every day the Yanks go without another outfielder coming down with yet another injury seems one day closer to the departure of Frazier. It’s easy to imagine Frazier going to a non-contender, but there could also be some interesting scenarios where he ends up on a club that still has hopes of reaching the postseason this year.
13-15. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants; Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays (LR: NR, 15, 4): As noted with regard to Wheeler, the free-falling Mets are likely to jettison any and all pricey vets on expiring deals. The resurgent Frazier, hitting .256/.340/.443 as of this writing, falls directly into that category, as he’s earning $9MM this season before a return to the open market. Over in San Francisco, the Kung Fu Panda has continued to rake since our last check-in on the game’s top trade chips. That’s less true of Smoak, who has been in a deep funk in recent weeks and hasn’t played up to expectations on the season as a whole. If you’re looking at the last few seasons on the whole, though, Smoak is easily the best bat of this trio of corner-infield rentals.
16. Mike Leake, SP, Mariners (LR: 22): Since last publishing this list, Leake has made two strong starts and two awful ones — highlighted (err… lowlighted?) by a seven-run drubbing at the hands of the Orioles. However, Leake has a superlative 21-to-1 K/BB ratio over 26 innings in that same stretch of time. He’s sitting on a 4.32 ERA and, in an era proliferated by five-inning starts, he’s averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing. Leake won’t front your rotation, but if you need durable innings and ground-balls to round out the starting five, he’s a solid option. The Cardinals are already paying part of his salary, and the Mariners would surely kick in some cash to get a deal finalized for Leake, who’s signed through 2020.
17-18. Mychal Givens, Orioles & Roenis Elias, Mariners, RP (LR: 17, NR): Call it a hunch, but the O’s seem well-positioned to move on Givens. He’s in his first year of arbitration with two more to go, so there’s no rush. And outwardly, the results make this an awkward time, as he has surrendered a home run-driven 4.76 ERA. But Givens has also racked up 20 strikeouts in his last 11 1/3 innings. He fits any budget and seems an obvious candidate to function in late innings for a contender. With the Orioles as far from contention as possible, I’m betting they’ll find a deal for their most talented relief pitcher. As for Elias, we examined him at length earlier. In short, he’s a solid, cheap reliever ($910K) controlled for two more seasons who currently plays on a rebuilding team that is run by Jerry Dipoto. Need we say more?
19. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (LR: 5): With the Pads continuing to put out word that they’re chasing starting pitching, it’s feeling less and less likely that they’ll seriously pursue deals involving Yates. There’ll be a strong desire to keep him, both for this year and next, so long as the club is in the hunt for a Wild Card bid. But there’ll still be a pull towards a deal, as interest would be huge.
20. Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates: This is by no means a declaration that we think the Pirates will be sellers. To the contrary, they’re very much in the NL Central and Wild Card races at the moment. But the emergence of Bryan Reynolds simply gives Pittsburgh too many outfielders. It’s the quintessential “good problem to have.” The team’s reported preference is to move Dickerson, a pending free agent making $8.5MM, rather than one of its other outfielders. Doing so could fetch them some needed bullpen help or a back-of-the-rotation arm to help solidify the pitching staff. The Buccos could also just accept a nominal prospect return and then use the saved funds to help take on a pitcher.
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Max Muncy: Not A Fluke
Max Muncy rose from obscurity last year to become one of the majors’ most improbable success stories. The Athletics jettisoned Muncy in April 2017, a half-decade after they used a fifth-round draft pick on him. The Dodgers then scooped up Muncy on a minor league contract that has turned into one of the greatest low-risk deals in recent memory.
Muncy didn’t take a single at-bat with the Dodgers in his first year with the franchise, instead thriving for the entire season at the Triple-A level, but he broke out as a premier major leaguer in 2018. Muncy slashed a remarkable .263/.391/.582 (162 wRC+) with 35 home runs in just 481 plate appearances, all while seeing significant action at first and third base. The all-around package was worth an astounding 5.2 fWAR – the same amount Braves superstar Freddie Freeman totaled in 226 more trips to the plate.
Muncy was a good-not-great A’s prospect who wasn’t a remotely successful big leaguer prior to last season. As such, questions abounded over what he’d do for an encore this season after his eye-opening breakout in 2018. Three-plus months into the season, Muncy hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, but that’s a compliment to what he accomplished then – not an indictment on his current production. Having just earned the first All-Star nod of his career, Muncy is emphatically showing he’s not a fluke.
The 28-year-old has already accounted for 3.0 fWAR, good for a 20th-place tie among position players, through 359 trips to the plate. Once again, his offensive output has been fantastic, as the lefty’s slashing .265/.365/.529 (134 wRC+) with 22 homers. Muncy’s power has dropped in comparison to last year – his ISO has fallen from .319 to .265, and his launch angle has sunk from 17.8 degrees to 12.6 – though he has still been one of the game’s most imposing threats at the plate. Statcast backs up Muncy’s bottom-line production, evidenced in part by a .379 expected weighted on-base average that actually outdoes his .377 wOBA. Muncy’s xwOBA ranks in the league’s 90th percentile, while his hard-hit percentage (61st), expected batting average (73rd) and expected slugging percentage (83rd) are also comfortably above average.
Muncy, however, hasn’t achieved his resounding success the same way he did last year. A more aggressive approach (his swing rate’s up 5 percent since 2018) has helped lead to more swings and misses and fewer walks, yet Muncy is making more contact and striking out less. Unlike last season, Muncy’s doing more of his damage against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Once again, though, he has had little trouble with either, as shown by his 143 wRC+ versus southpaws and a 131 mark against righties.
For the second straight year, Muncy’s proving capable of helping his loaded team in multiple ways. The Dodgers, unafraid to heavily deploy players at two or more positions, have given Muncy between 23 and 46 appearances at first, second and third this year. He has risen to the challenge by offering plus defense at each position, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Adding up his work at all three spots, Muncy has accounted for 10 DRS and a 2.4 UZR.
With Muncy’s help last year, the Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West crown and their second consecutive pennant. With Muncy’s help this year, they’re shoo-ins to take home their seventh division championship in a row. More importantly, he may aid in the club’s first World Series title since 1988. Not bad for a player who’s only two years removed from joining the Dodgers off the scrapheap.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays
Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.
Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.
Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.
Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.
As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.
When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).
It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Candidate: Roenis Elias
The trade market should pick up steam in earnest over the next week to 10 days, now that the All-Star break is behind us. Teams will play in pivotal series against divisional foes — some of which will dictate whether fringe contenders add pieces or wave a metaphorical white flag and begrudgingly sell off some veteran assets in exchange for youthful talent. Many of the names on the market are well known by now, as are others who could become available should their currently borderline teams ultimately sell. The Mariners are already known sellers, but there’s been little focus on lefty Roenis Elias, who has is in the midst of a second consecutive quality season.
None of what’s written here will be a means of suggesting that Elias is a premium trade chip, but he’s certainly a more appealing trade piece than one would think given the lack of attention he’s drawn. The Cuban-born southpaw will turn 31 the day after the deadline, so he’s not the type of young, controllable asset after which so many clubs pine. However, he is controllable for another two seasons, and over the past two years, Elias has been a perfectly serviceable relief option for Seattle skipper Scott Servais.
In his past 91 2/3 innings, Elias has turned in a 3.24 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9 and a 34.7 percent ground-ball rate. Elias throws hard for a lefty, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball dating back to last season. He’s had some curious struggles against lefties in 2019 (some, but not all of which can be attributed to a .364 BABIP), but Elias has also held right-handed hitters to an awful .206/.272/.339 batting line through 257 plate appearances since the 2018 season opened.
If spin rate is your cup of tea, then Elias is all the more appealing. His fastball spin is in the 91st percentile among big league hurlers, per Statcast, while his curveball falls into a less-impressive but still-solid 76th percentile. The lefty has induced swinging strikes at a 10.6 percent clip over the past two seasons, including an 11.9 percent rate in 2019 that has been accompanied by an uptick in strikeout rate (from 6.0 K/9 in ’18 to 9.3 in ’19). Elias has even emerged as a late-inning option for Servais, locking down 11 saves. That said, he’s also no stranger to multi-inning relief outings.
The Nationals, Twins, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox (although Boston has already acquired Elias from the Mariners once, only to trade him back) are among the teams in the market for a bullpen arm or two. For a team with payroll concerns, Elias’ $910K salary is small enough that he can be squeezed into virtually any budget. It’s also affordable enough that he can be penciled onto a 2020 roster without forecasting too steep a raise in arbitration.
Elias isn’t an elite reliever, but he’s intriguing as a solid, perhaps too-seldom-discussed arm on a team that has been openly broadcasting its willingness to sell veteran assets since the beginning of the offseason. His eminently affordable salary makes him a fit for any team’s budget, and given the large number of clubs eyeing bullpen help, there should be a market for his services. He might not be any team’s “Plan A,” but Elias should nonetheless have a decent chance of changing hands over the next three weeks.
The Constant Gardner
Raise your hand if you thought Brett Gardner would lead Yankees outfielders in fWAR at the All-Star break. Weeks-long, injury-forced absences to starting outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks helped Gardner ascend to the top of the heap in the season’s first three-plus months, but the long-productive 35-year-old has been legitimately good yet again. With 2.1 fWAR through 323 plate appearances, Gardner is tied for 46th among all qualified position players, having notched the same total as Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and others. He’s also continuing to make a case as one of the most valuable Yankees ever in the eyes of that metric, which places him 24th among the storied franchise’s all-time position players.
Even though Gardner is enjoying his latest quality season, there is a chance it’ll be the last in pinstripes for the soon-to-be free agent and career-long Yankee. The club brought Gardner back last offseason for $7.5MM after declining its $12.5MM option over him. At that point, Gardner didn’t look as if he’d be in line for his typical amount of playing time. The team had Judge, Stanton and Hicks, after all, and while they (especially Stanton) have each sat out significant time this year, all three will reprise starting roles next season. The club could also have Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Andujar (yet another 2019 injury case), Clint Frazier (if he’s still with the organization by then) and an out-of-options Mike Tauchman further clouding the outfield and/or DH mix.
Of course, if you’re Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, there are more important matters at hand than worrying about 2020. He can map out Gardner’s future then. As of now, Cashman’s choice to retain Gardner last winter has proven to be a shrewd decision for a team that has jumped out to the American League’s leading record (57-31).
A roughly league-average offensive player since his career started in 2008, Gardner has posted a 109 wRC+ so far this year. If the season ended now, it would go down as the fourth-best figure of his career. Gardner’s more conventional output – his triple-slash line – checks in at .246/.328/.470. While Gardner has usually derived a sizable portion of his offensive value from his ability to get on base, having done so at a .343 lifetime clip, he’s one of countless major leaguers whose uptick in power has ruled the day in 2019.
Gardner has already piled up 15 home runs, six fewer than the high-water mark of 21 he hit in 2017, with a .225 ISO that comes in 90 points above his career mean. Unlike many other hitters, though, Gardner hasn’t needed to sell out for power by upping his strikeouts. In fact, Gardner has gone down on strikes a meager 15.5 percent of the time – his lowest since 2009 – and is tied with Mike Trout for the game’s eighth-ranked swing-and-miss rate (5.3 percent). Plus, having walked in better than 10 percent of trips to the plate, Gardner’s 0.66 BB/K ratio almost doubles the league average (0.37).
Gardner’s sturdy output this year has come in spite of a .248 batting average on balls in play, down 59 points compared to his .307 lifetime BABIP. Still one of the majors’ fastest runners, Gardner looks like a good bet on paper to see his BABIP skyrocket. That’s not a lock, though, if Gardner’s new approach holds up. He’s hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls/line drives than usual. That’s not conducive to a high BABIP, and it’s worth noting that hitting the ball out of the park doesn’t count toward the stat.
The question is whether Gardner’s newfound power is here to stay. The fact that he’s pulling the ball at a career-high rate and going opposite field at a personal-low percentage bodes well in that regard. Furthermore, FanGraphs indicates Gardner’s hard-hit rate is his highest since 2012. It also may help that the left-handed Gardner plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, but the venue surprisingly has been a difficult one for lefties to amass HRs at this season, according to Baseball Prospectus. For his part, Gardner has been better on the road (114 wRC+) than at home (102) this year, though he has totaled eight of his homers in the Bronx. Historically, Gardner has offered league-average or better numbers both home and away.
Sticking with Gardner’s history, he has typically been usable, albeit unspectacular, versus same-handed pitchers (88 wRC+). But they’ve stifled Gardner this season, having limited him to a woeful .206/.260/.324 (53 wRC+) in 73 PA. Moreover, Gardner has been far from great in general in the estimation of Statcast, which puts his expected weighted on-base average (.314) significantly below his real wOBA (.339). It also indicates his expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected batting average are all worse than mediocre.
Elsewhere, however, Gardner remains a defensive and base running stalwart in spite of his advanced age. In almost 700 innings divided between left and center, he has accounted for 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. And while Gardner’s no longer the 40-steal threat he once was, the speedster has swiped eight of 10 bags this year and rated as one of FanGraphs’ top base runners.
The overall package has almost always been effective for Gardner, who has quietly been one of the Yankees’ greatest draft picks in recent memory after going in the third round in 2005. Fourteen years later, Gardner remains a legitimate major league regular and someone who could help the franchise to the second World Series title of his career this fall. Whether Gardner will stay with the lone organization he has ever known once its season ends will be one of the Yankees’ main questions when the offseason rolls around.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Anti-Gerrit Cole
Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is currently on pace to join the prestigious 300-strikeout club, a group with no shortage of Hall of Fame-level talent. Cole leads the majors with a dazzling 13.11 strikeouts per nine innings, whereas Athletics left-hander Brett Anderson resides on the opposite end of the spectrum. Anderson places dead last among qualified starters in K/9 at 4.56. His K/BB ratio (1.58) ranks a similarly unappealing fourth worst in the game. Nevertheless, in a season filled with setbacks for the A’s rotation, Anderson has been one of the unit’s few stabilizing forces.
The 31-year-old Anderson’s 2019 success has come at a nominal fee. After Anderson inked a minor league deal entering 2018 and helped pitch the Athletics to the playoffs, he re-signed on an MLB pact worth $1.5MM during the offseason. Now, for the second year in a row, Anderson may aid in a postseason berth for Oakland.
Injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Anderson, who began his career with the Athletics in 2009 and later spent time with the Rockies, Dodgers, Cubs and Blue Jays before circling back to the A’s a year ago. This season, though, Anderson has stayed healthy in a season chock-full of poor fortune for Oakland’s pitching staff. Not only haven’t the A’s gotten a single inning from the injured quartet of Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Jharel Cotton, but they lost their ace, Frankie Montas, to an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension June 21.
Anderson’s first start after Montas’ ban – a three-inning, seven-run performance in a June 23 loss to the Rays – was a nightmare. However, since then, Anderson has yielded a meager two earned runs on seven hits over 14 innings in a pair of starts – both wins for a playoff-contending A’s team that needs every victory it can get. Anderson now owns an above-average 3.86 ERA through 102 2/3 frames on the season. Known throughout his majors tenure for inducing ground balls, Anderson has done so at a 53.1 percent clip this year. As always, Anderson’s worm-burning tendencies have enabled him to limit home runs to a respectable extent. The average starter has surrendered HRs on 15.2 percent of fly balls in 2019, but Anderson’s at just 11.1.
Despite the laundry list of injuries Anderson has contended with throughout his time in the majors, his velocity remains in line with career figures. He’s averaging approximately 90 mph on his four-seam fastball and sinker, and has thrown the latter pitch 10 percent more than he did last season, according to Statcast. The results haven’t been great, though, as hitters have posted a .353 weighted on-base average/.382 expected wOBA against it. Anderson has stifled hitters with his slider, on the other hand, though his usage of it has decreased by 6 percent since 2018. In the 19.8 percent of the time Anderson has leaned on the pitch this year, batters have logged a non-threatening .286 wOBA/.298 xwOBA against it.
Perhaps Anderson would be well-served to turn to his slider more often, especially considering he has benefited from quite a bit of luck with his overall arsenal thus far. Anderson’s expected wOBA (.350) portends trouble compared to his real wOBA (.302). The same applies to Anderson’s 4.54 FIP – which ranks 21st from the bottom among qualified starters. Likewise, Anderson’s .268 batting average on balls in play against may be tough to maintain for someone who has surrendered a .309 BABIP during his major league career.
For now, the A’s are enjoying the inexpensive ride with Anderson, who might be on his way to another major league contract in the offseason. But while the strikeout-happy Cole could score $200MM-plus in free agency over the winter, the contact-heavy Anderson may be fortunate to net much more than the sub-$2MM guarantee he secured coming into the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Eric Sogard: Face Of MLB [Trade Deadline]?
You remember Eric Sogard. He once rode his rec spec-chic good looks and charmingly scrappy play to internet stardom, nearly winning the memorable “Face of MLB” contest through a thrilling hijacking effort launched by the crafty A’s faithful.
The good times didn’t last in Oakland. Sogard was a solid contributor in 2013, but his high-contact, low-power approach fizzled as he turned in consecutive sub-70 wRC+ seasons at the plate. There was a second act in Milwaukee in 2017, when Sogard turned in a remarkable combination of 45 walks against 37 strikeouts despite a near-total absence of power (.104 ISO). But he collapsed in the following campaign, carrying a ghastly .134/.241/.165 slash in 113 plate appearances for the Brewers.
Thus it was with little fanfare that the Blue Jays inked Sogard to a minors pact this past offseason. He was a solid depth piece, destined to open the year at Triple-A. At most, Jays fans might have hoped they’d finally have an organizational replacement for fan-favorite Ryan Goins, a utility infielder who was feted as a hero upon his return to Toronto. He had been dumped unceremoniously the winter prior after appearing in a career-high 143 games, sneaking the ball over the right field wall nine times and producing 62 ribbies. (That last state is the one that Jays announcer Buck Martinez chose to support his questionable assertion, in the above-linked video, that Goins had a “great year” in 2017. Goins slashed .237/.286/.356.)
As it turns out, Sogard was called upon by the Jays when youngster Lourdes Gurriel Jr. got the yips. Sogard had hit well at Triple-A, mostly by hounding young pitchers into walks. He drew seven free passes against just four strikeouts in 38 plate appearances while socking a dinger and a pair of doubles among his eight base knocks.
There was nothing remarkable about any of this … until the ghost of Goins inhabited Sogard’s spectacles. Those nine long balls Goins hit in his legend-making campaign? Well, Sogard has matched him already in nearly half the tries. The 33-year-old journeyman is now through 261 plate appearances of .294/.364/.478 hitting in Toronto, handily topping even mid-prime Goins in output. He’s hitting well against righties but doing even more damage against same-handed pitching (137 wRC+).
Just what is going on here? Is it remotely sustainable? Is Sogard a legit deadline trade chip for the rebuilding Toronto team?
This Goins-Sogard thing has had far longer legs than I anticipated when I sat down to write this, but it will help illustrate one more point. In large part, it seems Goins just happened to loft a few over the course of the season. His nine homers averaged 400 feet with a 27.6 degree average launch angle. Otherwise, he averaged only an 8.3 degree launch angle that season and has typically sat lower even than that.
Sogard? Much as with his predecessor, every single one of his homers has gone down the right field line — two-thirds of them at the Rogers Centre. They’re likewise flying on fairly lofty flight paths — moreso, in fact. Sogard’s mean dinger is taking a parabolic path of 29.6 degrees, placing him 122nd on the list of all home run hitters in the majors this year, sitting comfortably among between a bunch of double-digit dinger men.
That’s about where the similarities end. Sogard is producing some true wall-scrapers. His long balls are averaging just 380 feet, good for 399th of 452 players registered by Statcast. They have left the bat at a meager 96.5 mph average exit velo. That’s just 445th of 456 players in the database; you have to run up the board to Yuli Gurriel (14 homers at a 99.4 mph average exit velo) to find another hitter with more long balls.
The baseball may not be juiced, per se, but it sure is flying like never before. And Sogard is taking full advantage, maxing out his meager power to the breaking point. He currently owns a .184 isolated power mark — more than double his career average (.090) — despite a meek 20.7% hard-hit rate, 85.3 mph average exit velocity, and grand total of three barreled balls this season. Oh, and he’s also sending the ball skyward like never before, with a hefty 19.2 degree average launch angle.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Sogard absolutely can’t keep things going like this. But Rogers Centre has borne witness to more long balls than any other MLB stadium this year. The Jays’ pitchers are playing their part in that, to be sure. But let’s just say that teams weighing a move for Sogard will want to do some ballpark dimension overlays before pulling the trigger.
Even if many of his dingers would’ve snuck out elsewhere, it seems wise to bake in a healthy amount of anticipated regression. Sogard does possess undeniable mastery of the strike zone and outstanding contact ability. He carries a 3.7% swinging-strike rate this year and sits under four percent over his career. This isn’t a player selling out to put the ball over the wall. But it’s also not one who’s newly stinging the sphere.
Sogard, a poster boy? In a sense, yeah. Teams considering him will need to closely parse the changes to the broader state of play and try to assess how he’ll fit in moving forward. Can Sogard keep tucking balls into the front rows of the right field bleachers? That depends not only upon a look at Sogard, but other matters. Can pitchers find a way to adjust to these universal changes? Will the baseball undergo further physical change? Likewise, other deadline targets — those performing well and those struggling to adapt, hitters and pitchers alike — will be viewed with one eye on the ever-flying long ball.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Is It Time For The Mets To Trade Noah Syndergaard?
Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard‘s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.
With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.
Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.
Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.
On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.
While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.
All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Mets do with Noah Syndergaard?
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Listen to offers and consider moving him for a huge return 59% (3,787)
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Definitely trade him 27% (1,717)
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Now isn't the time to deal him 15% (951)
Total votes: 6,455
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Most Improved Offense Of 2019
After unexpectedly earning a playoff berth in 2017, the Twins finished far out of contention last season with a 78-84 record. The club’s offense contributed to its mediocrity a year ago, ranking 13th in the majors in runs, 19th in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in homers. Aside from infielder Eduardo Escobar, whom Minnesota traded to Arizona before the end-of-July deadline, none of its regulars posted well above-average offensive production. Additionally, the Twins handed out a couple thousand plate appearances to players who were so-so or worse at the plate. Franchise icon Joe Mauer, who retired at season’s end, as well as Brian Dozier (traded last summer) and offseason departures Robbie Grossman, Logan Morrison and Logan Forsythe were among those responsible for Minnesota’s middle-of-the-pack attack.
Unlike last season, there hasn’t been anything run-of-the-mill about the Twins’ offense. In fact, the unit has been downright scary, a key reason why the Twins have sprinted to the majors’ fourth-ranked record (56-33). No team has scored more runs than the Twins, who are tied atop the league at 509 and have seen their wRC+ climb a whopping 21 points to 116 (second in baseball). With 166 home runs, the Twins are first in the majors and on pace to eclipse the record 266 the Yankees swatted just last season.
The club’s marked offensive improvement is the product of in-house talent coming into its own and shrewd offseason pickups by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. A slew of holdovers – shortstop Jorge Polanco (19), center fielder Byron Buxton (19), outfielder Max Kepler (25), utilityman Ehire Adrianza (30), third baseman Miguel Sano (44), and catchers Mitch Garver (53) and Jason Castro (83) – have each boosted their wRC+ by sizable amounts. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie utility player Luis Arraez has recorded a phenomenal 162 wRC+ in his first 95 plate appearances.
The Twins also helped their cause with a few notable additions to their offense over the winter, including the signing of accomplished slugger Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14.3MM deal. Cruz couldn’t find a multiyear contract because of his advanced age (39), but he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He has smashed 16 homers, giving him 376 for his career, and is on track to finish with a 130-plus wRC+ for the sixth straight year.
Fellow free-agent signings Jonathan Schoop (103 wRC+) and Marwin Gonzalez (94) haven’t been close to as effective as Cruz, but Schoop has outdone the offensive output Dozier and Forsythe put up at second in 2018. Gonzalez has come on strong since an ice-cold April, thereby doing his best to justify the two-year, $21MM investment Minnesota made in him.
The team also utilized the waiver wire to its advantage in the offseason, scooping up first baseman C.J. Cron after the Rays cut him on the heels of a 30-home run season. Cron, whom the Rays didn’t want to pay an estimated $5.2MM in arbitration, settled for $4.8MM after catching on with the Twins. The 29-year-old’s numbers have dipped compared to last season’s, though he has still hit .266/.326/.495 (111 wRC+) in 331 PA and added 17 HRs to the Twins’ potentially historic ledger.
With the Twins hoping to vie for a World Series in the season’s second half, it’s fair to wonder whether their offense can keep up this type of pace. Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average metric presents a mixed bag of answers. Castro, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cron have all logged xwOBAs ranging from 29 to 55 points better than their actual marks. On the other hand, the xwOBAs of Polanco and Kepler are 15 points lower, Buxton’s is 26 points inferior, Sano’s lagging by 43 and Garver by 57. However, Polanco, Kepler and Garver are still clearly above average in the category. Meantime, there’s not much difference for Adrianza, Schoop or slugging outfielder Eddie Rosario.
Between a high-octane offense and a quality pitching staff, the Twins are legitimate candidates to play deep into the fall this year. Of course, there’s still work to be done around this month’s trade deadline (perhaps by acquiring another starter and more relief help) for a team trying to hold off the hard-charging Indians in the American League Central.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
An Underrated Waiver Pickup
The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.
The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).
Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.
Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.
Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).
The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).
Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.