Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasiel Puig
Looking to return to relevance and break their five-year playoff drought in 2019, the Reds operated aggressively on the trade market during the offseason. The club swung multiple noteworthy deals, including a swap with the Dodgers in which they netted outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp and left-hander Alex Wood. So far, though, that trade hasn’t delivered the on-field value the Reds wanted. They released Kemp in early May after he got off to a miserable start, while Wood hasn’t taken the field at all because of a back injury. That leaves Puig, who was perhaps the Reds’ biggest acquisition of the offseason. To this point, however, the 28-year-old has been a bust in Cincinnati.
Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.
The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.
Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.
When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.
It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.
Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
This Date In Transactions History: Cubs Land Jorge Soler
It has been seven years since the Cubs landed a player they thought would become a long-term linchpin. On June 11, 2012, they won the bidding for free-agent Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. At least a few teams bid upward of $20MM for Soler, who had just turned 20 a few months prior, but Chicago emerged victorious with a nine-year, $30MM offer. At the time, Soler was seen as a top 50 prospect in the sport.
The power-hitting Soler tore through the Cubs’ minor league system beginning the summer he signed and wound up debuting in Chicago two years later. When the Cubs promoted him late in the 2014 season, Soler was even more of a celebrated prospect. He justified the hype initially, slashing a strong .292/.330/.573 (148 wRC+) with five home runs in 97 plate appearances. Thanks to that run, Soler cemented himself as the Cubs’ everyday right fielder heading into 2015; however, his numbers took a dive that season, during which he hit .262/.324/.399 (95 wRC+) with 10 homers in 404 trips to the plate.
Despite his underwhelming output in 2015, Soler was once again in the Cubs’ season-opening lineup in ’16. The franchise ultimately won its first World Series in 108 years that season, but Soler didn’t play a huge role. While Soler turned in decent production in the regular campaign and the playoffs, injuries helped limit him to 264 PA during the season. After celebrating their championship that fall, the Cubs elected to part with Soler, deciding there was no longer a place for him in an outfield that also had Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Matt Szczur in the fold.
On Dec. 7, 2016, just over a month after it won the World Series, Chicago traded Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. Although Davis only had another year of control left, the Cubs needed a replacement for departed closer Aroldis Chapman. That helped deem Soler expendable in the Cubs’ eyes, and though Davis lasted just one season in their uniform, they haven’t really missed Soler.
Since he joined the Royals in 2017, Soler has batted .234/.310/.450 (101 wRC+) and swatted 28 HRs in 633 attempts. Soler was particularly subpar during his first year in KC, in which he endured a lengthy minor league demotion, but bounced back in 2018 before suffering a season-ending left toe fracture in mid-June. In his return from that injury, Soler’s once again giving the Royals respectable offensive production this season, though his paltry .293 on-base percentage somewhat overshadows his 17 homers. The same is true of Soler’s defense (minus-7 DRS, minus-2.0 UZR), which has graded negatively for most of his time in the majors.
Considering how much excitement there was when Soler signed with the Cubs, the 27-year-old has posted a somewhat disappointing big league career. Soler may move on to a third team soon, given rumors that the non-contending Royals are open to trading just about anyone on their roster. Wherever he plays next season, it’ll be the final year of the contract Soler agreed to with the Cubs seven years ago.
Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball
Howie Kendrick has been a quality major leaguer throughout most of his career, which began in 2006. Kendrick’s a lifetime .292/.335/.427 hitter with a 108 wRC+ and 29.9 fWAR in a combined 6,129 plate appearances with the Angels, Dodgers, Phillies and Nationals. But now, a month from his 36th birthday, the infielder/outfielder may be better than ever.
Kendrick collected two hits and a pair of walks in the Nationals’ win over the White Sox on Monday, raising his line to .333/.376/.604 (149 wRC+) in 178 trips to the plate this season. That’s impressive for anyone, let alone an aging player who missed nearly all of 2018 thanks to the ruptured right Achilles he suffered last May. Kendrick’s output is all the more extraordinary when considering there doesn’t appear to be anything particularly fluky about it.
Never known for striking out much, Kendrick’s doing it almost less than ever this season, having gone down on strikes a meager 14.6 percent of the time. At the same time, Kendrick has never quite rivaled Mike Trout at drawing walks. That has remained the case in 2019, though his current rate (6.7 percent) stands as one of the highest figures of his career. And the righty-swinging Kendrick has always been tough on both same- and left-handed pitchers, which has certainly been true this season.
Kendrick’s increase in production stems largely from an uptick in power. His ISO (.270) is twice his career number (.135), in part because of a greater emphasis on hitting fly balls. Kendrick’s pulling the ball more than ever, going less to the opposite field than he ever has, and his newfound power reflects that. His FB rate (32.6 percent) is more than 8 percent his lifetime figure (24.1), and his launch angle – which was in the one-degree range from 2015-17 before climbing to 7.9 during his injury-limited 2018 – has skyrocketed to 9.2.
Kendrick’s effort to put the ball in the air more has paid serious dividends. He already has 11 home runs, seven fewer than his most in a season; although his 24.4 percent HR-to-FB rate isn’t going to hold, both Kendrick’s approach at the plate and the way he’s hitting the ball suggest a massive drop-off may not be in the offing. Kendrick’s swinging and missing a career-best rate and making more contact than he has at any point, particularly on pitches outside the strike zone. When Kendrick has connected, he has posted the majors’ 14th-best weighted on-base average (.408), per Statcast. And that’s hardly just a product of good fortune, as shown by his 11th-ranked expected wOBA (.424). Kendrick’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 96th percentile, while his expected slugging percentage (.610; 96th), expected batting average (.328; 99th), hard-hit rate (50 percent; 93rd percentile) and exit velocity (91.7 percent; 88th) also reside toward the top of the league.
If there’s one problem with Kendrick’s offensive game, it’s a lack of speed. While Kendrick has been a double-digit stolen base threat for the majority of his career, he has swiped a mere two on four attempts dating back to last season. According to Statcast’s sprint speed metric, Kendrick is now one of the majors’ slowest runners. Kendrick’s .331 batting average on balls in play may decline as a result, especially considering he’s hitting the ball on the ground most of the time, and the lack of speed won’t help his cause in the field either. To Kendrick’s credit, though, he’s still a versatile defender, having logged double-digit appearances at first, second and third base this season.
Kendrick’s superb late-career showing looks like an important development for him and the Nationals. Not only is Kendrick helping his future earning power a few months away from another trip to free agency, but he could aid in a playoff push for the Nats. Worst-case scenario for Washington: If the club falls out of the postseason race and decides to sell before the July 31 deadline, it’ll likely have a solid trade chip on its hands in Kendrick. The veteran’s on a non-prohibitive $4MM salary, making him all the more enticing to potential suitors.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jake Odorizzi
The Twins have enjoyed quite a few nice surprises in the course of their strong start to the year. The output of righty Jake Odorizzi is certainly among them. Don’t look now, but he’s actually now topping the ERA leaderboard among qualified starters. So … is Odorizzi headed for a free agent bonanza after the season?
There’s little doubt that Odorizzi is delivering great value on the $9.5MM he’s earning in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Through 70 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.92 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
Odorizzi is tied for the league lead with nine wins, for those that value that statistic. That’s a hefty tally for a pitcher in this day and age, but it doesn’t mean he’s working deep into games. Odorizzi has gone past six innings just twice; on the positive side, he has only failed to last at least five frames on two occasions.
This continues a low-inning trend for Odorizzi. He took sixty starts in the 2017-18 seasons, but threw only 307 2/3 innings. That recent history is notable in other ways as well. Odorizzi compiled useful but unspectacular numbers in his most recent seasons, working to a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
The 2017-18 version of Odorizzi coughed up 1.5 homers per nine. He was and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Opposing hitters currently carry a 28.2% groundball rate and 20.2 degree launch angle, much as they did last year. While they’re putting the ball in the air, though, they haven’t found their home run stroke this year. Odorizzi has permitted just 0.51 HR/9 on a meager 4.9% HR/FB.
What to make of the changes? You certainly have to question the sustainability. Statcast says that Odorizzi has allowed a meager .234 wOBA, but calculates a .284 xwOBA — still good, but hardly as dominating as the results. We might expect a lower BABIP given his batted-ball profile, but .251 still seems light. If and when the home run suppression dissipates, Odorizzi could be left looking like much the same pitcher he has always been. Both xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (3.92) see him that way already.
That said, there does appear to be something more here than a nice, fortune-laden run of results. Odorizzi has bumped his swinging-strike rate to 12.8% by riding a rather notable velocity boost — all the way over 93 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs after sitting under 92 in the prior two seasons. He’s currently at personal-high levels with both heaters, which at a bare minimum suggests he’s in a good place physically and mechanically.
There’s nothing here to suggest that Odorizzi is suddenly a front-line starter. It’s quite likely he’ll come back to earth over the next several months. But there’s also some evidence that he’s in his best form since he established himself as a quality starter (and underappreciated part of a notable trade) with the Rays.
Odorizzi will turn 30 right at the start of the 2020 campaign. With a run of extensions gutting the 2019-20 free agent market, he’ll have a chance to position himself as one of the better available starters. When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last ranked the upcoming free agents nearly six weeks ago, he listed Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler in the top five and noted a group of other useful but clearly non-elite starters in the honorable mention category: Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Cole Hamels. Odorizzi has outperformed them all since. We’ll see how it all looks when the season is over, but he’s an increasingly notable member of the upcoming class of free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Dodgers Bullpen Probably Looks Worse Than It Is
“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”
Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.
The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.
In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ‘pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”
So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”
Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.
That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.
Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?
The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.
There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.
So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …
The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.
If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”
Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?
The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.
Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.
On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez‘s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.
The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley‘s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.
The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Red Sox and Indians make the playoffs?
-
Just the Red Sox 50% (4,059)
-
Neither team will get in 32% (2,644)
-
Just the Indians 10% (814)
-
Both teams will 8% (654)
Total votes: 8,171
Trade Candidate: Will Smith
Considering Will Smith is the subject of this piece, let’s dispense with the obligatory “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” reference right away: Smith is treating opposing hitters about as well as Uncle Phil treated Jazz. Between that and the fact that the Giants are way out of contention, Smith stands out as one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is almost sure to part with Smith, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who’s slated to reach free agency after the season.
Smith, a left-handed reliever, has offered nothing but quality production since he shifted to the Royals’ bullpen in 2013. From then through last season, Smith posted a 3.00 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.94 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across 251 2/3 innings divided among Kansas City, Milwaukee and San Francisco. And the 2019 version is arguably the best one yet. In addition to recording a 2.19 ERA/1.97 FIP with 12.77 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, a 46.4 percent groundball rate and a lofty 21.4 percent infield fly rate over 24 2/3 frames, Smith has converted all 14 of his save opportunities.
As you’d expect from Smith’s sterling production, he has been death on batters of either handedness. Lefties have slashed .182/.217/.182 against him, while righties have put up an almost-as-weak .145/.197/.290 line. Hitters have only managed a .234 batting average on balls in play against Smith, which could prove to be unsustainable, but it doesn’t look as if they’re primed to start teeing off on him. Smith’s .220 weighted on-base average ranks fifth among all pitchers, and indicates the .205 real wOBA he has offered is mostly legitimate. Not only is Smith’s xwOBA in the league’s 99th percentile, but his strikeout rate (98th percentile), expected slugging percentage (98th percentile) and expected batting average (93rd percentile) all sit near the very top of the sport.
It’s fair to say the Giants have an ppealing trade piece on their hands in Smith, especially given his reasonable salary ($4.23MM). Smith was already a key deadline piece earlier in his career when the Giants acquired him from the Brewers for two prospects in 2016. Those prospects, Andrew Susac and Phil Bickford, didn’t pan out for the Brewers, but the return was nonetheless a haul at the time. Both Susac and Bickford ranked among the game’s top 65 prospects.
Smith’s a better pitcher now than he was then, but it’s unlikely he’ll bring a similar bounty in this summer’s inevitable trade. He’s only a rental, after all. Still, as at least the most valuable lefty reliever on the block (unless the Indians decide to dangle Brad Hand or the Pirates do the same with Felipe Vazquez), moving him should help the Giants strengthen their fallow farm system. With that said, it’s worth revisiting what the top impending free-agent relievers who changed hands in advance of last July’s deadline brought back in deals. We’re talking about Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Zach Britton. Aside from Britton, who hadn’t pitched much last year at the time of his trade because of injuries, each member of that group fared somewhat similarly to how Smith has this season.
Soria garnered two prospects, lefty Kodi Medeiros and righty Wilber Perez, when the White Sox traded him and $1MM in salary relief to the Brewers. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs didn’t sound too bullish on the White Sox’s return at the time, pointing to Medeiros’ difficulty throwing strikes and retiring righties and calling Perez “a fringe prospect.”
The Mets’ decision to send Familia (and his remaining $3MM in salary) to the A’s netted New York third baseman Will Toffey, righty Bobby Wahl and $1MM in international slot money. Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) was among the many who panned the Mets’ half of the trade.
Herrera brought back three players – outfielder Blake Perkins, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and righty Yohanse Morel – when the Royals traded him and his $4.44MM in remaining salary to the Nationals. No one from that trio rated among the Nationals’ 10 best prospects then.
Likewise, Britton pulled in three players when his deal was consummated. The Yankees acquired Britton and his $4.44MM in money from the Orioles for righties Dillon Tate and Cody Carroll and lefty Josh Rogers. Tate was one of the Yankees’ highest-rated prospects at that point (No. 6 in their system, per Baseball America), while Carroll checked in at No. 15.
For the most part, none of the above relievers brought back inspiring packages for their final few months of team control in 2018. That may not bode well for the Giants this summer, though it’s certainly worth noting Smith has been better this year than any of them were last season. And with just over $2.5MM left in salary now and $1.39MM on July 31, he’ll come at a price any team could afford. Thanks to Smith’s performance, ability to close or set up, and affordability – not to mention contenders’ annual desire to upgrade their bullpens – playoff hopefuls will be beating down the Giants’ door in hopes of landing him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Oakland Ace?
The Athletics haven’t seen one of their starters post a sub-3.00 ERA in a season since left-hander Rich Hill accomplished the feat in 2016, albeit during a truncated run in their uniform. Hill fired 76 innings of 2.25 ERA/2.54 FIP ball that year before the out-of-contention A’s sent him and outfielder Josh Reddick to the Dodgers for a three-player package. Now, three years later, one part of the Athletics’ return is on track for the top season an A’s starter has put up since Hill’s exit.
When he joined the A’s in the Hill trade, right-hander Frankie Montas ranked as Baseball America’s 82nd-best prospect. Despite Montas’ high upside, it was already the third deal involving him since he signed with the Red Sox in 2010 as a free agent from the Dominican Republic. The Red Sox traded Montas to the White Sox in 2013 in a large, three-team swap which delivered righty Jake Peavy to Boston. Two years after that, the ChiSox flipped Montas to the Dodgers in yet another three-club trade – this time to land third baseman Todd Frazier.
While Montas has been somewhat nomadic as a professional, it appears the 26-year-old has found a home in Oakland. Montas didn’t pitch in his first year with the organization because of a rib injury, and he then registered inconsistent results between the majors and minors in 2017. However, in logging a 3.88 ERA/3.90 FIP in 65 major league innings last season, Montas pitched his way into the A’s 2019 rotation. They’re now the beneficiaries of an ace-like version of Montas, who has amassed 76 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball to emerge as one of the majors’ breakout starters.
Montas’ quality run prevention last year came with fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings, but that figure has rocketed to 9.36 this season. Meanwhile, Montas is walking fewer hitters (2.37 per nine, down from 2.91), generating far more ground balls (51.4 percent now versus 43.7 in 2018) and inducing significantly more infield flies (11.7 percent, up from 4.5). Unsurprisingly given those numbers, home runs haven’t haunted Montas, who has yielded HRs on 10 percent of fly balls. So the A’s have a starter who racks up strikeouts, seldom walks anyone, keeps the ball on the ground and stops it from leaving in the ballpark. That sounds a lot like the 2016 version of Hill, which is a high compliment.
The question is: How is Montas doing this? Well, it helps when you’re one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. His high-spin four-seam fastball clocks in at upward of 97 mph, which ranks fifth in the game and just ahead of stars Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler and Jacob deGrom. Hitters have mustered an unimposing .279 weighted on-base average versus Montas’ four-seamer, and they’ve done even worse against his slider (.198) and splitter (.243), according to Statcast. Montas throws each of those pitches at least 17 percent of the time, but he relies primarily on his sinker (38.6 percent). It’s a drastically different repertoire than Montas offered in 2018, when his sinker (55.4 percent) was his go-to pitch. He also occasionally featured a changeup that’s no longer in the picture.
Of course, altering your pitch mix doesn’t guarantee stardom. You’d better be able to command those pitches, too. Montas has to this point. Heatmaps via FanGraphs (2018, 2019) indicate he’s doing a better job keeping his pitches down and locating fewer of them in the middle of the plate compared to last season. In the process, Montas has thrown more strikes in general, raised his swinging-strike rate from 8.6 percent to 11.1, fooled more hitters into chasing his offerings outside the zone and dropped his contact rate against by nearly 5 percent. When hitters have made contact off Montas, it hasn’t been particularly damaging, and that doesn’t look as if it’s going to change. After all, his xwOBA against (.283) is even better than the nonthreatening .292 wOBA batters have managed so far. Beyond that, there’s nothing unusual in the .306 batting average on balls in play Montas has surrendered.
When Oakland unexpectedly earned a wild-card berth in 2018, it used reliever Liam Hendriks as an opener because it was lacking a front-line starter. Hendriks ended up enduring a rough outing during a loss for the Athletics, who are once again in wild-card contention. And if the A’s make it back to the one-game playoff this year, they just may be able to turn to an ace-like hurler in Montas.
Regardless of how the team’s season shakes out, it looks as though it has a long-term building block in Montas. The fact that Montas will make a minimal salary through next season and isn’t scheduled to become a free agent until after 2023 is all the better for the low-budget A’s, who also have no shortage of other promising starters. While Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo A.J. Puk, James Kaprielian and Jharel Cotton have all dealt with notable injuries of late, the ability is evident in each case. With at least some members of that group eventually slated to join Montas in Oakland, the club may be on the cusp of boasting a controllable, talent-rich rotation.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Shopping Matthew Boyd
The Tigers may have helped develop a front-line starter in left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal for David Price in July 2015. At the time, fellow southpaw prospect Daniel Norris was seen as the best part of the Tigers’ three-player return, but it’s Boyd who has since emerged as the superior major leaguer. Now, with the noncompetitive Tigers amid a rebuild and not likely to return to contention in the near future, they may have to consider trading Boyd this summer.
Boyd debuted with the Blue Jays the same season as the trade and wound up turning in 57 1/3 innings of 7.53 ERA/6.59 FIP ball between Toronto and Detroit. He was much better over the next three seasons, including when he totaled 4.3 fWAR in 305 1/3 frames from 2017-18, yet still didn’t look like much more than an average starter. But Boyd has found another gear in 2019 – his age-28 season.
Across 83 2/3 innings this year, Boyd has already put up a career-best fWAR (2.8) that trails only Max Scherzer among starters. Thanks in part to a lethal fastball-slider combo, Boyd’s also third in the league in K/BB ratio (6.93), sixth in K/9 (11.16) and BB/9 (1.61), eighth in FIP (2.93), 15th in ERA (3.12) and swinging-strike percentage (13.4), and 25th in contact rate (73.2). Furthermore, there’s almost zero difference between Boyd’s weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.272 versus .271).
Based on his production to date, the 2019 version of Boyd has been an ace – and a cheap one at that. Relative to his performance, Boyd is earning a pittance ($2.6MM) in his first of four potential arbitration-eligible years. Considering Boyd is breaking through as a top-flight starter who’s under control through 2022, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Tigers go forward with him. That said, there’s a case for Detroit to cash in its best trade chip this summer, when Boyd would outrank Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and others as the most desirable starter on the block.
Even with Boyd in the fold, it doesn’t look as if the Tigers have nearly enough quality building blocks in the majors or minors to work their way back into contention over the next couple years. There’s hope in the Tigers’ starting staff in the form of Boyd, Norris and Spencer Turnbull. But the team’s premier reliever, Shane Greene, isn’t signed past this season and may find himself on another roster in the coming weeks. Switching to the offensive side, Brandon Dixon and Nicholas Castellanos have been the Tigers’ only league-average batters this season. The 27-year-old Dixon has struck out 37 times and drawn three walks in 98 plate appearances, indicating his bubble’s going to burst. We know Castellanos can hit, but he’s a free agent-to-be whose overall value is limited by his defensive shortcomings. Down on the farm, the Tigers do have prized righty Casey Mize – the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft – but Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs still don’t see a special system in place.
While the Tigers don’t boast an elite collection of farmhands, trading Boyd would change that to a certain extent. He’d command a massive return right now, though it would be an agonizing call on the Tigers’ part to let him go. However, with Boyd’s value perhaps at its zenith and Detroit seemingly not nearing a return to relevance, general manager Al Avila may have to think about putting his club’s ace on the block. What would you do in Avila’s position?
(Poll link for app users)
Should the Tigers put Matthew Boyd on the block this summer?
-
Yes 78% (5,170)
-
No 22% (1,498)
Total votes: 6,668
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
David Bote: Starman?
Cubs infielder David Bote had one of the best offensive games of the 2019 season Wednesday, going 4 for 4 with a home run and seven runs batted in to help his team to a 9-8 win over the Rockies. The 26-year-old failed to reach base in either of the Cubs’ games since then, but he’s still off to a rousing start this season. After hitting .239/.319/.408 (95 wRC+) with six home runs during his 210-plate appearance debut in 2018, Bote has slashed .276/.349/.481 (117 wRC+) with seven HRs in 175 tries this year.
So far, Bote – an 18th-round pick in 2012 – is more than justifying the Cubs’ decision to hand him a five-year, $15MM extension in April. Bote was one of the least known players to receive a new deal during the league’s extension craze back in the spring, though he may be establishing himself as a long-term cog for the Cubs. However, it’s still up in the air whether Bote’s Year 2 improvement is real or a mirage.
As was the case last season, Bote’s walking in better than 9 percent of plate appearances. That’s a bit above the league-average mark (8.7). At the same time, Bote has slashed his strikeout percentage from 28.6 to 25.1, cut his swinging-strike rate a hair and made more contact. So far, so good.
On the other hand, even though Bote possesses better speed than most, he’s unlikely to sustain the .340 batting average on balls in play that has helped prop up his numbers this year. That’s especially true given that Bote has become much more of a fly ball hitter since last season. On that subject, it’s worth noting Bote has hit the ball with far less authority when he has elevated it this year compared to his initial campaign. Bote battered fly balls and line drives at a lofty 96.6 mph average in 2018, but that figure has sunk just below 93 this year, according to Statcast. Given that information, it’s unsurprising Bote’s expected weighted on-base average (.315) comes up well short of his real wOBA (.361).
While stardom doesn’t look as if it’s in the offing for Bote (not yet, at least), his value to the Cubs is apparent. The inexpensive Bote’s ability to chip in respectable offense while playing scratch to plus defense at second and third base is a package most teams would sign up for in a heartbeat. That certainly includes the Cubs, who haven’t recalled infielder/outfielder Ian Happ since demoting him to Triple-A prior to the season, may never see utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist put on their uniform again, and have received woeful production from offseason second base pickup Daniel Descalso.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.