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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Archer, Bumgarner, Martinez, Molina

By | at June 5, 2018 10:57pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 4th-June 5th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • MINNESOTA TWINS | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: SP Zack Littell
      • Littell made his MLB debut in Game 2 of Tuesday’s double-header. He was the 26th man.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Belt, Calhoun, Pedroia, Pence

By | at June 3, 2018 8:01pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 2nd-June 3rd)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • WASHINGTON NATIONALS | Depth Chart
    • Placed on Paternity List: RP Tim Collins
    • Promoted: RP Jefry Rodriguez
      • Rodriguez pitched 4.2 scoreless innings of relief in his MLB debut on Sunday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • DETROIT TIGERS | Depth Chart
    • Role change: P Artie Lewicki will start on Tuesday June 5th. He has been working out of the bullpen.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Dozier

By | at June 3, 2018 9:10am CDT

Twins star Brian Dozier entered 2018 off an extraordinary three-year stretch of power hitting for a second baseman. Dozier combined for 104 home runs during that 2,100-plate appearance span, including 42 in 2016 – an American League record at his position. Although Dozier became a household name because of his ability to hit the ball over the fence, he has been a well-rounded player since his first full season (2013), evidenced by the 22.2 rWAR/21.7 fWAR he racked up between then and this year.

Dozier’s recent excellence has come under the team-friendly extension he signed as a less established player heading into the 2015 season. That contract – a four-year, $20MM pact – has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball lately, but unfortunately for the Twins, it’s on the cusp of expiring. Dozier is now two-plus months into the last year of his deal, and indications are that he’ll test the open market after the season. The 31-year-old made it clear over the winter that he was interested in an extension – “I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” he declared – but the Twins didn’t reciprocate and talks on a new deal died.

Because he hasn’t been able to secure another long-term accord from the Twins, Dozier is now trying to prove to them and other teams that he’ll be worth a significant investment in the coming months. But unfortunately for Dozier, his platform year hasn’t begun in ideal fashion. With a .241/.313/.420 batting line in 249 PAs, Dozier’s offensive production has been 3 percent below average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was an above-average hitter in each of the previous four seasons, including when he recorded his two highest wRC+ figures – 131 and 125 – in 2016 and ’17.

Encouragingly, Dozier’s walking at a 9.2 percent clip (in line with a career 9.4 mean) and striking out less than he did in previous years. He has fanned 18.1 percent of the time, which is both better than the ever-increasing league rate (22.4 percent) and his career mark (19.4). Dozier’s also chasing less than ever, having registered a 22.6 percent out-of-zone swing rate that easily outdoes his lifetime figure (27.8).

Dozier’s offensive game clearly isn’t devoid of positive signs, then, though there has been cause for alarm when he has put the bat on the ball. He has only hit eight homers thus far, to go with an ISO (.179) that has declined substantially from the .238 mark he combined for from 2015-17. Further, Dozier’s line drive percentage is at a personal-worst 14.4 – compared to 19.9 during his career – and after averaging a 94.4 mph exit velocity on liners last season, Dozier’s at 91.4 this year. Thanks in part to that, not to mention an increase in grounders, Dozier’s percentage of balls hit at least 95 mph has fallen from 34.5 percent in 2017 to 28.1 this season. Dozier currently ranks toward the bottom of the majors in those Statcast metrics (via Baseball Savant), making it no surprise that he has only registered a .303 xwOBA and a .267 batting average on balls in play to this point. While Dozier’s BABIP is close to his career total (.276), it’s a far cry from the personal high (.300) he put up in that department last year.

When Dozier’s contact has eluded defenders this year, he hasn’t been nearly the threat on the base paths that he was in previous seasons. Dozier collected anywhere from 12 to 21 steals in each year from 2013-17, and he entered the campaign with a career success rate near 76 percent. But Dozier has only converted on two of four attempts in 2018, perhaps in part because he’s not as fleet of foot as he had been. Dozier’s average sprint speed is 26.8 feet per second, per Statcast, placing him just below the league mean (27) and down from the slightly above-average marks he managed in each of the three prior seasons.

Dozier’s production at the plate and on the bases does warrant some concern, but his defensive numbers look normal so far. Dozier had essentially been a scratch defender from 2012-17, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (three) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-0.3), and that has also been the case in 2018 (two DRS, minus-1.5 UZR). And Dozier’s impressive durability has once again been on display, as he hasn’t missed any of the Twins’ 54 games after amassing between 147 and 157 appearances in each of the previous five seasons.

Dozier’s outstanding track record of availability will undoubtedly appeal to teams as he seeks another payday in the coming months, though he won’t max out his earning potential at his current offensive pace. There’s time for Dozier to turn it around at the plate, of course, and it’s especially important for him to do so given the competition he could face on the market. As things stand, there will be no shortage of veteran second basemen available in free agency, including DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera. Thanks to that fact – not to mention Dozier’s age, the unkind way free agency has been trending for 30-somethings and the potential of a qualifying offer hanging over his head – his first trip to the market may come at an inopportune time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins

Poll: Relievers And The Arbitration Process

By | at June 2, 2018 4:41pm CDT

A few days back, T.J. Zuppe of The Athletic sat down with former ALCS MVP and current MLBPA player rep Andrew Miller for a chat about what he describes as the “science” aspect in the game of baseball across the past couple of years. Specifically, the two talked about the way pitcher usage is slowly morphing towards a landscape in which each individual matchup, and the leverage situation in each of them, has a much greater impact on when and how pitchers are used.

Perhaps the most notable aspect of their conversation is the subject of the arbitration process as it relates to relief pitchers. Miller describes the arbitration process as “a little bit behind”, which makes a lot of sense considering the fact that reliever raises take the saves stat into significant consideration. With reliever usage shifting the way it has been (the usage of Miller, Josh Hader and Sergio Romo are all good examples), the correlation between the best relievers and the relievers earning the most saves will continue to decrease.

One other item that Miller brought up is that perhaps stats like WPA will end up coming more into play as the arbitration process adapts (painfully slowly) to the way players are valued in free agency. Even that, however, could be problematic considering that Tampa Bay’s “openers” won’t work in particularly high leverage situations to begin the game (as Miller himself notes).

If the way relievers are rewarded during arbitration doesn’t already seem silly to you, consider the fact that, if both entered arbitration today, Arodys Vizcaino would be likely to earn a far larger raise than Josh Hader due to his accumulation of saves, or in essence, the fact that he’s been used in the ninth inning more frequently during his career. Hader, of course, is considered to be a far better relief pitcher based on nearly every statistical category typically used to evaluate reliever value.

One of the issues this creates, says Miller, is an incentive for pre-arb or arb-eligible players (and their agents) to push for use in certain innings, rather than accept the assignments they’re given during the game. Speaking from a hypothetical player’s point of view, Miller says, “If the only difference is the situation I’m pitching in, that’s worth $4 million, I want that $4 million. I’m going to go in there (and demand it).”

He’s right, and the fact that the arbitration system incentivizes a structure that runs somewhat contrary to the most efficient use of a bullpen seems problematic. So we want to hear your thoughts. What would you like to see happen to the arbitration process as it relates to relievers? (Poll link for app users)

What Should Happen To The Arbitration Process?

  • It should be completely overhauled; it's outdated and a prominent issue 54% (877)
  • It should be altered slightly during the next CBA to fix these issues 30% (482)
  • It should stay the same; it will catch up slowly as it always does 17% (273)

Total votes: 1,632

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Poll: Where Will Hanley Ramirez Sign?

By and | at June 2, 2018 10:59am CDT

Hanley Ramirez‘s release became official yesterday afternoon when he went unclaimed on waivers, and he’s now a free agent who is eligible to sign with any big league team. Because the Red Sox are paying the roughly $15MM remaining on his 2018 salary, any new club can sign him to a big league deal that guarantees him only the pro-rated league minimum — roughly $358K. The vesting option that was on his last contract was torn up the moment he was released, so he’s free to sign anywhere on a straight one-year deal.

The 34-year-old Ramirez was outstanding in April (.330/.400/.474) and abysmal in May (.163/.200/.300), and his overall .254/.313/.395 batting line through 195 plate appearances checks in well south of a league-average bat in the estimation of metrics like OPS+ (88) and wRC+ (90).

It’s not especially difficult to see what contributed to his downfall when looking at his batted-ball data in each month. Fangraphs credited Ramirez with a whopping 40.3 percent hard-contact rate in April, and he posted an excellent 24.7 percent line-drive rate that month. In May, his hard-hit rate plummeted to to just 20.9 percent, and his line-drive rate dropped to 4.5 percent. The cause of that deterioration in quality of contact, of course, will be up to his next team to determine, but it’s clear that Ramirez was going through something more than a mere BABIP-fueled slump.

Where exactly he’ll sign in the coming days figures to be a source of no small amount of speculation (both here and elsewhere). Ramirez’s recent plate appearances were clearly not encouraging, nor was a 2017 season in which he battled shoulder injuries and hit just .242/.320/.429, albeit with 23 homers. Ramirez hasn’t had a healthy, productive full season in the big leagues since slashing .286/.361/.505 with 30 big flies and 28 doubles in 620 PAs with the 2016 Red Sox. It’s a lot to expect him to return to that at age 34, even if his shoulder is recovered from 2017’s injuries.

Still, Ramirez is a no-risk proposition for any club that signs him, and if he can provide even slightly above-average production at the plate, he’d be a fine asset to acquire at the minimum rate. Given his track record and the relative peanuts he’ll cost, it’s a virtual lock that Ramirez will sign with what will be his fourth MLB organization over the next few days.

The Rockies jump out as an immediate potential fit. Ian Desmond has been their primary first baseman, but they’ve cycled through a few players at the position and received a disastrous .190/.277/.346 from their first basemen on the season. Ramirez wouldn’t even need to improve upon his overall season output to date in order to represent a massive upgrade for the Rox; merely hitting at a below-average but still-competent rate would improve their lineup substantially.

The Mets have been an oft-speculated fit for Ramirez on Twitter, but Adrian Gonzalez and Wilmer Flores have formed roughly average platoon at first base, and it’d be a surprise to see the Mets jettison one veteran first baseman with an average bat to pick up another who hits from the same side of the dish as Flores.

Braves fans have suggested that Ramirez could play third for them as a bridge to prospect Austin Riley, but it doesn’t seem likely that any club would give Ramirez regular reps at a position other than first base. Still, Atlanta did roll the dice on a comeback tour at the hot corner for Jose Bautista, so perhaps the idea shouldn’t be entirely dismissed.

Generally speaking, the bulk of the contending clubs in the National League have received solid production at first base, so it’s seems far more likely he’ll end up in the American League rather than get buried as a bench bat on an NL roster. After all, the DH slot can help mask the fact that he’s somewhat of a defensive liability.

The Orioles and Royals are the only two teams who have failed to get above-replacement-level production from both their first base and DH slots on the whole. With that in mind, though, the Orioles already have three first base/DH types on their roster and therefore would have to jettison one of Pedro Alvarez or Danny Valencia. Both of those players have been generally productive on the year, so a move to acquire Ramirez wouldn’t make much sense. The Royals, though, have been rolling out Hunter Dozier at first base. He has options remaining, and Ramirez could prove an upgrade if he’s able to put an ugly May behind him.

One has to wonder how much longer the Blue Jays will be willing to send Kendrys Morales to the plate; after being worth -0.6 fWAR last season due to a wRC+ of just 97 across 608 plate appearances, he’s already matched that negative fWAR total in just 141 PA in 2018 thanks to a .208/.284/.344 batting line. Ramirez would provide the Jays with a clear upgrade at DH.

The Rays and White Sox both stand out as teams who would benefit from having Ramirez in the lineup. The Rays haven’t gotten much out of Brad Miller this season or last, while the White Sox seem to have a rotating cast of rookies and sophomores cycling through that slot in their lineup. Still, being that both clubs are in rebuilding phases, it’s possible that they’d benefit more from simply seeing what they have in young players.

We’ll leave it up to the readers at this point. Where do you think Ramirez will end up? (Poll link for app users)

Where Will Hanley Ramirez Sign?

  • Rockies 29% (2,576)
  • Mets 17% (1,522)
  • Blue Jays 15% (1,374)
  • Braves 12% (1,083)
  • Rays 11% (990)
  • White Sox 9% (845)
  • Royals 6% (549)

Total votes: 8,939

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Betts, Cabrera, Donaldson, Kershaw, Panik

By | at June 1, 2018 11:28pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(June 1st)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • CLEVELAND INDIANS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: OF Bradley Zimmer
      • Zimmer was not in the starting lineup on Friday. Greg Allen played CF and batted 9th.
    • Optioned: SP Shane Bieber
      • The Indians do not need a No. 5 starter until June 12th.
  • DETROIT TIGERS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: 1B Miguel Cabrera
      • Cabrera played 1B and batted 3rd on Friday.
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: SP Ryan Carpenter (strained oblique)
      • The Tigers will need to fill Carpenter’s rotation spot on Tuesday.
    • Promoted: RP Zac Reininger
    • Designated for assignment: INF Pete Kozma

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Beltre, Davis, Gordon, Kershaw

By | at May 31, 2018 11:13pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(May 31st)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Buxton, Maeda, Iglesias, Reyes, Syndergaard

By | at May 30, 2018 11:27pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(May 29th-May 30th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • MINNESOTA TWINS | Depth Chart
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: OF Byron Buxton (fractured toe)
      • Ryan LaMarre played CF on Tuesday and Wednesday with Buxton out of the lineup.
    • Promoted: SP/RP Aaron Slegers

      • Slegers pitched 5 1/3 innings of long relief Wednesday and was optioned to Triple-A after the game. A corresponding move will be announced Thursday.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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Trade Candidate: Scooter Gennett

By | at May 29, 2018 11:08am CDT

The Reds don’t have much going on at the MLB level this year. Their 19-36 record is a bit disappointing, perhaps, but largely aligns with expectations after a winter that mostly involved acquiring some affordable pitching depth to supplement a returning roster filled with question marks.

There have been some recent front-office wins, though. Offseason additions David Hernandez and Jared Hughes have been nice bullpen buys to this point; both could end up as deadline assets or useful pieces for the 2019 season. The extensions of Tucker Barnhart and Eugenio Suarez have worked out nicely so far. Reclaiming Matt Harvey seems to be a worthwhile, albeit still-uncertain venture.

Perhaps the biggest score of late, though — setting aside the landing of Luis Castillo, at least — has come via the waiver claim of Scooter Gennett from the division-rival Brewers late in Spring Training last year. Gennett was very productive in 2017, but has now elevated his output yet further in the new season. With the picture of the 2018 trade deadline beginning to take shape, he’s a potential source of trade value for the Reds and an interesting player to examine.

Avid readers of MLBTR may recall that, at times in the past, I have shed some doubt on Gennett’s merits as a trade candidate. His effort last year was not accompanied by any improvements to his plate discipline, he carried a somewhat elevated .339 batting average on balls in play with less-than-promising Statcast data (.367 wOBA vs. .322 xwOBA), and he continued to struggle against same-handed pitching (.248/.287/.404 vs. lefties).

Entering the current season, then, my own expectations were not terribly lofty for the 28-year-old, who is playing on a reasonable, but not exactly cut-rate $5.7MM salary. That non-bargain pay grade also weighs down the value of controlling Gennett’s 2019 season via arbitration. It wasn’t all that surprising that he remained with the Reds when the season began, particularly given the relative dearth of demand at second base, a position that he has never fielded with particular excellence.

Rumors of regression have to this point been greatly exaggerated, though, as Gennett is off to a fabulous start in the new year. Through 212 plate appearances this year, he’s slashing a healthy .340/.376/.558 with ten home runs. That’s good for a 156 wRC+. Despite typically middling defensive grades at second base, Gennett has already contributed 2.2 rWAR / 1.9 fWAR on the year.

Basically, Gennett is performing right now like a post-breakout Daniel Murphy. The added benefit here, of course, is that he’s younger and cheaper. Gennett is even torching lefties thus far, with a .364/.375/.545 slash that quiets one of the most obvious critiques of his abilities at the plate.

Impressive as Gennett has been, though, some concerns continue to nag. Surely, he won’t be able to sustain a .405 batting average on balls in play. Statcast numbers again indicate that he has been somewhat fortunate, grading him at a .349 xwOBA that substantially lags his actual .397 wOBA. Gennett certainly has not shown any leaps in the plate-discipline department, as he has an unremarkable combination of a 20.7% strikeout and 5.1% walk rate to begin the 2018 season. And these signals are all the more evident in his 57 plate appearances against southpaws (.514 BABIP, 18:1 K/BB).

It still seems, then, that some regression is in store. But Gennett has shown signs of real change, too. He has quietly converted groundballs to line drives of late. In 2016, he put the ball on the ground 44.7% of the time and hit liners on 20.8% of his batted balls. Thus far in 2018, he’s at 37.3% and 26.6%, respectively. Though he’s not a particularly dramatic participant in the Launch Angle Revolution, Gennett has steadily elevated over time, moving from an average of 10.5 degrees (2015) to 11.7 degrees (2016) to 12.8 degrees (2017). This year, so far, he sits at 14.4 degrees on average. Of late, Gennett has maintained a lofty homer-per-fly rate (20.8% last year, 17.5% this).

An optimist might argue that this interesting blend of data points suggests that Gennett has honed in on being the best version of himself. He’s hitting the ball sharply on a line while generating well-struck high flies when that’s what’s available. That it has come through steady development rather than an obvious change in approach should not necessarily represent a red flag. Pessimists, on the other hand, will cite many of the above figures in support of the proposition that Gennett’s skills simply don’t support this kind of output. By that view, while he’s going well over an extended stretch, Gennett still hasn’t provided good reason to believe it’s sustainable. Projection systems, for instance, generally anticipate that he’ll settle into producing in range of the league-average rate.

We still have about two months of action left before the trade deadline, so the evidence is still being gathered. At some point, though, contending teams with a need at second base will need to decide whether it’s worth trying to pry Gennett loose from the Reds. Just how willing the Cincinnati organization is to deal, meanwhile, could depend in part upon whether and when top prospect Nick Senzel forces a promotion. But the biggest driver will likely be the quality of the offers.

There are a few other second basemen that will surely be weighed as deadline targets — MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently listed a few — but Gennett is the one presently pacing all MLB second baggers in offensive output. It’s hardly certain that there’ll be broad demand at the position. That may not be entirely necessary if Gennett truly stands out, but that’s just where the core question lies. Clearly, he has proven since joining the Reds that he’s a quality MLB player who can help a contender. But unless one or more teams come to believe he’s truly an everyday, high-level type of performer, it’s fair to wonder whether an offer will come in that’s strong enough to pique the Reds’ interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Acuña, Cordero, Davidson, Nova

By | at May 28, 2018 10:10pm CDT

ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(May 28th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

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