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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Few teams generated more offseason headlines than the Angels, as the team reloaded in a major fashion for another run at playoff contention.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

International Signings

  • Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH: $2.315MM signing bonus (Angels paid $20MM posting fee to Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters)

Extensions

  • Justin Upton, OF: One year, $17.5MM (total represents new money added via extension, as Upton signed a five-year deal that overwrote the four years remaining on his pre-existing contract.  Upton had the option of opting out of his contract and becoming a free agent after the 2017 season.)

Notable Losses

Angels 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Angels Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

One of Anaheim’s biggest moves was completed before the offseason even began, as Justin Upton agreed to forego opting out of his contract in exchange for a new five-year agreement.  The newly-crafted deal essentially acted as a one-year extension that added $17.5MM in new money to the $88.5MM that Upton was already owed from 2018-21, guaranteeing him a total of $106MM over the five-year span.

Upton hit .273/.361/.540 with 35 homers over 635 PA last season, seemingly confirming that his slow start with the Tigers in 2016 was perhaps just an adjustment to the American League.  A full season of Upton’s bat is a huge boost to an Angels lineup that (apart from Mike Trout) didn’t deliver much offense in 2017, and the combination of Upton, Trout, and Kole Calhoun is arguably baseball’s best outfield.  Both Upton’s enjoyment of his time in L.A. and his misgivings about the free agent market factored into his decision to stay, and he surely he must feel even better about his choice after watching his team thoroughly bolster its roster.

The most-discussed addition, of course, was Shohei Ohtani.  The 23-year-old Japanese star’s plans to jump to Major League Baseball led to months of speculation, particularly since Ohtani and his camp gave little hint about what he was particularly looking for in a North American club.  (Money wasn’t a prime factor, as Ohtani’s age made him subject to international signing bonus rules, and thus he could only receive a signing bonus for whatever his new team had available in its remaining bonus pool.)  After virtually every MLB team submitted a detailed explanation of their plans for deploying Ohtani’s unique two-way skillset, the field was then narrowed to seven teams, five of which were on the West Coast.  While geography certainly seemed give the Angels an initial boost, their in-person meeting seemed to clinch matters, as Ohtani said he “just felt something click” when after talking with team officials.

For just a $2.315MM signing bonus, the Angels now have at least six years of control over a talent who has intrigued scouts and executives like almost no other international prospect in recent memory.  Not only will Ohtani step into the Angels’ DH mix (after hitting .286/.358/.500 over 1170 career plate appearances in Japan), he’ll also become the team’s projected number two starter, after Garrett Richards. Of course, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the phenom this spring, as discussed further below.

While it remains to be seen what Ohtani can contribute against MLB pitching, the Halos also augmented their lineup with a pair of proven veterans.  Second and third base were both areas of need with Yunel Escobar and Brandon Phillips headed for free agency, and after looking around at various trade and free agent options at both positions, Los Angeles used both avenues to create what could be the game’s best defensive infield.

Only 16 players in baseball surpassed Zack Cozart’s 5.0 fWAR in 2017, as the veteran Reds shortstop augmented his always-impressive defense with a breakout year at the plate, hitting .297/.385/.548 with 24 homers over 507 PA.  That performed earned him a three-year, $38MM deal from the Angels, though with a lack of teams in the market for shortstop help, Cozart had to agree to switch over to third base for the third time in his professional career.  It’s hard to imagine much, if any, of a fielding dropoff for Cozart at his new position given his prowess at shortstop, and if his hitting come anywhere close to last year’s numbers, the Halos will have landed a star at a near-bargain price.

Several teams tried to benefit from the Tigers’ ongoing fire sale by making offers for Ian Kinsler, though it was the Angels who finally landed the veteran second baseman for the moderate price of two decently-regarded prospects.  Moreso than the prospect return, the Halos’ willingness to absorb the $11MM owed to Kinsler in 2018 and Kinsler’s own interest in coming to Anaheim (he waived his partial no-trade clause to approve the deal to the Angels, who had been on his 10-team no-trade list for tax reasons) made the deal happen.

The 36-year-old isn’t a long-term answer to Anaheim’s longstanding second base hole, and Kinsler is coming off the worst offensive season (91 wRC+, .236/.313/.412 over 613 PA) of his 12 years in the big leagues.  Still, even if Kinsler duplicates that slash line, he’d still represent a marked upgrade over what the Angels got from their second basemen in 2017.  Kinsler’s glovework was still as good as ever last season, and between Kinsler, Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, and Cozart at third, opposing batters will have a hard time sneaking grounders through the Halos’ infield.

Beyond the big-ticket additions, L.A. also added quite a bit of veteran depth at the Major and minor league levels.  Chris Young and Rene Rivera will respectively handle the backup outfielder and catching duties, while such notable figures as 2016 NL home run leader Chris Carter are in camp as non-roster invitees.

As well as the experienced names, the Angels also obtained some much-needed young talent for their thin farm system as a result of the Braves’ loss of 12 international prospects due to signing violations.  With Ohtani’s bonus accounting for their remaining 2017-18 international pool funds, Anaheim dipped into its 2018-19 pool, which was allowed via MLB’s rules for how teams could pay for this sudden influx of international talent on the market.  Shortstop Livan Soto was inked for an $850K deal, but the bigger prize was 18-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Kevin Maitan.  At the cost of a $2.2MM bonus, the Angels added a player who was the most highly-touted name from the 2016-17 int’l class, even if Maitan’s stock has dipped after a disappointing 2017 season.

Questions Remaining

For all of the hype and promise surrounding Ohtani, there’s also an equal amount of doubt as to whether he’ll be able to legitimately perform as a two-way player in the big leagues, simply because such a feat hasn’t really been accomplished since the days of Babe Ruth.  It may be years before we can fully weigh in on Ohtani’s two-way potential, though his Spring Training struggles both on the mound and at the plate have led to some speculation about whether he’ll be able to provide immediate help to the Angels in 2018.  Spring numbers for any player, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt, though the controversy that Ohtani’s slow start has already generated is an early sign of the unique scrutiny he’ll face in his MLB rookie season.

Ohtani’s presence has led to a ripple effect on the Angels’ roster.  Since he is slated to receive at least a couple of DH days per week, Albert Pujols will now be getting more time at first base, a position the future Hall-of-Famer has been increasingly unable to play over the last two seasons due to foot injuries.  Pujols is hopeful that his injury-free offseason will help him handle more time in the field and help him rebound from a mediocre year at the plate, and it’s worth noting that Pujols was still posting above-average run-creation numbers (as per wRC+) in every season prior to 2017.  The Angels would happily take Pujols returning to even his modest 2016 stats, though at age 38, it’s also possible that the slugger may have declined for good.

Luis Valbuena also suffered through a tough 2017 season, leaving the Angels with a pretty shaky pair of first base options for the coming season.  Due to the first base/DH roster crunch, C.J. Cron was dealt to the Rays, leaving L.A. with even less depth at first.  The Angels will be lacking at two key spots in the lineup should Pujols and Valbuena continue to struggle and if Ohtani needs time to adjust to Major League pitching. Carter can’t be seen as anything more than a wild card given his own disastrous 2017.

The Angels will be deploying a six-man rotation, in a nod to both Ohtani (given his part-time hitting status and to somewhat emulate his longer rest periods between starts in Japan) and to the other five projected starters, all of whom have been plagued by injuries in recent years.  Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and J.C. Ramirez combined for just 359 1/3 innings last season, and Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano are also on hand as less-than-reliable minor league depth options.  Ricky Nolasco wasn’t re-signed, leaving the Angels without a reliable innings-eater to help anchor a rotation with a lot of uncertainty.

Speaking of eating innings, the Angels lost a pair of bullpen workhorses when Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris left in free agency to respectively sign with the A’s and Cardinals.  The club is hopeful that Cam Bedrosian, Blake Parker, and Keynan Middleton can all continue to build on their impressive performances last year, and some veteran help was added in the form of Jim Johnson.  That trade with the Braves was more about acquiring international bonus money for the Ohtani chase than it was specifically about adding Johnson given his rough 2017 season, though his advanced metrics indicate that his 5.56 ERA last year could’ve been due to some bad luck.  The pen is also short on left-handers, as Jose Alvarez is the only southpaw reliever on Anaheim’s 40-man roster.

With potential needs in both the rotation and bullpen, it strikes me that the Angels could be one of the better fits for Alex Cobb or Greg Holland, who are both still available in free agency.  Signing either qualifying offer-rejecting player would cost the Angels $500K in international pool money and their second-round draft pick (57th overall), but it could be a price the club is eventually willing to pay if Cobb or Holland were willing to accept a bargain-rate one-year contract.  The rotation seems like more of a need than the bullpen given the lack of room for error with a six-man rotation, though L.A. didn’t dabble much in the free agent pitching market (aside from Ohtani’s singular situation) and is seemingly content to see what it has as the in-house arms get healthy.  If not Cobb or more of a pure innings-eater, the Angels could look to add starting pitching if they’re in contention and have a need at the trade deadline.

Overview

With more losing seasons (three) than playoff appearances (one) in the Trout era, the Angels are undoubtedly eager to strike while the superstar center fielder is still in his prime.  2018 isn’t a must-win year since Trout and most of the other key pieces are locked up beyond the season, though Richards and Kinsler are both free agents next winter and longtime manager Mike Scioscia is also entering his final year under contract.  There hasn’t been much talk about a Scioscia extension, and while it wouldn’t be surprising to see a new deal worked out for the game’s longest-tenured manager, it does create the possibility that the organization could embark in a fresh direction in 2019.  In an era when the Red Sox, Nationals, and Yankees all parted ways with veteran managers despite making the playoffs, it seems like Scioscia may require a significant on-field improvement if he wants to keep his job.

Fortunately for Scioscia, he’ll have more to work with this season.  Despite all the injuries and the below-average offense, the Halos flirted with wild card contention for a good chunk of 2017, and could potentially make a much stronger run at the postseason this year with Cozart and Kinsler in the fold, plus a full season of Upton.  Anaheim has been hurt in the past when acquiring veterans just before they start to decline, though the Ohtani signing represents a much-needed influx of young star talent into the roster, given the farm system’s lack of prospect depth in recent years.  Avoiding the injury bug remains a major concern, but the Angels made some bold moves to correct the flaws in last year’s roster.

What’s your take on the Angels’ winter?  (Link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Angels' Offseason?
A 41.86% (1,702 votes)
B 39.18% (1,593 votes)
C 13.58% (552 votes)
F 2.83% (115 votes)
D 2.56% (104 votes)
Total Votes: 4,066

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Fresh off the Astros’ first-ever World Series-winning campaign, general manager Jeff Luhnow spent the winter supplementing an already strong pitching staff.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Astros 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

The Astros were one of the majors’ elite teams from the start of the regular season until the end in 2017, but they may not have been in position to hoist the trophy in November if not for a late-August trade with Detroit. In that deal, Luhnow shipped out multiple prospects for longtime Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who was utterly dominant in his first action as an Astro, with whom he combined for 36 2/3 innings of nine-run ball in playoff series wins over the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers.

With Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh among Houston’s in-house starting options entering the offseason, Luhnow could have passed on adding any established starters during recent months. Instead, he revisited the trade route to pick up yet another high-profile option, Gerrit Cole, whom he acquired from the Pirates in January.

In order to reel in the 27-year-old Cole and his two remaining seasons of affordable team control, the Astros surrendered a respectable package of young talent headlined by righty Joe Musgrove, who was a promising starter for them back in 2016 and a key part of their bullpen down the stretch in 2017. While it’s possible the Astros will come to miss Musgrove and the other players they parted with (righty Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin), they’re well positioned to move on without them.

As mentioned earlier, there were several legitimate starting options on hand even before the Cole trade, so netting him should allow the Astros to maintain a deep staff in the near term even without Musgrove and Feliz. As opposed to earning starting jobs, Peacock (who was outstanding as both a starter and a reliever in 2017) and McHugh will be part of a righty-heavy relief corps that’s also set to include Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, newcomers Joe Smith and Hector Rondon, and Will Harris in prominent roles.

Cole has been somewhat inconsistent since debuting with the Pirates in 2013, but the talent is immense, evidenced by both his draft pedigree (No. 1 in 2011) and overall production to date (3.50 ERA/3.27 FIP across 782 1/3 innings). At his best in Pittsburgh, the 2015 version of Cole pitched to a 2.60 ERA/2.66 FIP with 8.74 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 over 208 frames. Cole hasn’t been nearly that effective lately, though the flamethrower was still a mid-rotation workhorse in 2017. Cole logged career-worst numbers in the ERA (4.26) and FIP (4.08) departments a year ago, but he also ate 203 innings with strong strikeout (8.69 K/9) and walk (2.44) rates en route to 3.1 fWAR. That’s quality production, clearly.

Now, as former FanGraphs writer Eno Sarris explained in January, Cole could be in the right place to harness his vast potential. Cole leaned too much on his fastball and wasn’t reliant enough on his breaking pitches during his Pirates tenure, Sarris observed. In Houston, though, he’s with a team that recorded the fourth-lowest fastball percentage and the fifth-highest slider/curveball rate in the league last season.

No doubt, the Astros are banking on Cole at least delivering similar results as last year. Before they ended up with him, they considered the likes of Yu Darvish, Chris Archer and Shohei Ohtani. Darvish would’ve created a far bigger dent in the Astros’ payroll than Cole, though, having inked a six-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs; Archer remains with the Rays, because they understandably want a major haul for him; and you can’t fault the Astros for losing the Ohtani lottery, given that it featured just about every other major league team at one point. So, in Cole, the Astros have an affordable, arbitration-controlled piece who should help their cause for at least two years. Come 2019, the Astros could be without both Keuchel and Morton, two players who are slated to become free agents next winter. Cole’s presence should help protect against their possible departures.

Joining Cole as new additions to Houston’s staff are Smith and Rondon, who each bring terrific major league track records on reasonable salaries. One could quibble with the fact that neither is a lefty, which the Astros could seemingly use. Houston was devoid of a shutdown southpaw throughout last season (neither holdover Tony Sipp nor the now-gone Francisco Liriano fit the bill), yet that didn’t stop the club from winning 101 games during the regular campaign before charging to a title in the fall. It helps when you’re righty relievers are capable of holding their own against left-handed hitters, as the Astros’ are. Their bullpen pieces held lefty-swingers to a .302 wOBA in 2017, and even though they’re righties, both Smith and Rondon could help in that regard. The 33-year-old Smith has held opposite-handed hitters to a .307 mark during his career, while Rondon, 30, has been even better at .287 (that figure ballooned to .346 last year, however).

Long after he bolstered his team’s pitching staff, Luhnow secured arguably the Astros’ best player, second baseman Jose Altuve, to a franchise-record contract extension. Prior to last Friday, when he agreed to his new pact, Altuve was controllable through next season via the club-friendly extension he signed as a youthful, run-of-the-mill player in 2013. The 27-year-old Altuve has since blossomed into a bona fide superstar, having taken home the AL MVP in 2017 (a 7.5-fWAR showing), and will earn at a rate commensurate to that for the long haul.

Altuve will be due a guaranteed $151MM over a five-year period beginning in 2020. He’s just the sixth player in league history to receive a deal worth $30MM per year, making his meteoric rise since he signed for just $15K in 2007 as a diminutive, anonymous Venezuelan prospect all the more incredible.

Questions Remaining

The Astros’ offense is the envy of the league, which it led in wRC+ (121) and runs (896) last season. That came without a full season from all-world shortstop Carlos Correa, whom a thumb injury limited to 109 games. He’s back, as are Altuve, Springer and Alex Bregman, to headline a seemingly relentless Houston attack. Still, the Astros at least showed some interest in upgrading their lineup over the winter. They considered making a run at then-Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who’d have given the Astros two reigning MVPs on one team, before the Yankees landed him and the majority of his $295MM contract. Additionally, Houston was in on Carlos Gonzalez, who ultimately re-signed with Colorado for $8MM.

Either Stanton or CarGo would have given the Astros another starting outfielder to join Springer in center and Josh Reddick in right. Instead, once first baseman Yuli Gurriel returns from February hamate surgery, they’ll primarily turn to Marwin Gonzalez, who stunningly broke out with a 144 wRC+ last year. But Gonzalez is no sure thing to continue at anything resembling that pace, judging by both his league-average output (101 wRC+) from 2014-16 and Statcast data from 2017. Although Gonzalez managed a superb .387 wOBA in 2017, his xwOBA (.320) fell way short. Meanwhile, Gurriel wasn’t quite that fortunate, but his xwOBA (.327) still didn’t come close to his solid wOBA (.351).

Both Gonzalez and Gurriel are candidates to take steps back offensively this year, then, while the Astros also seem to lack a high-end hitter at the DH spot. They’re in position to turn to backup catcher Evan Gattis, who was mediocre at the plate (105 wRC+) last year. The good news is that even that type of unspectacular production would easily outpace the now-retired Carlos Beltran’s output from last year. The revered Beltran was an important behind-the-scenes presence in Houston, but at the same time, he was one of the game’s worst DHs from a statistical standpoint.

While Gattis isn’t a terrible choice to DH, there’s a case to be made that the Astros should have non-tendered him (he’s making $6.7MM) and sought an upgrade. A free agent like Logan Morrison may have made sense, for example, especially considering the Twins handed him a $6.5MM guarantee that’s lower than Gattis’ salary. Morrison would have helped balance out the Astros’ lineup a bit more, giving them four lefty-capable regulars instead of the three they’ll run out in 2018. Admittedly, though, the way free agency unfolded over the winter isn’t something anyone saw coming, so it came as a surprise that Morrison (and Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier, among others) signed such an affordable deal. If the Astros need a bat at the trade deadline, there ought to be some quality options at palatable prices.

It’s fair to say that even if Gonzalez, Gurriel and Gattis are far from great this year, Houston will thrive at the plate because of its top-end talent. The Astros’ position players may not offer that type of brilliance defensively, though, as they’re returning largely the same group that ranked toward the bottom of the majors in the advanced metrics a season ago. The Astros are projected to be similarly woeful in the field this year, but they proved they could overcome that last season with a punishing offense and terrific pitching – both of which are again in place.

Houston’s hurlers could have been throwing to a different primary catcher this year had the club signed free agent Jonathan Lucroy, whom it showed interest in over the winter (he went on to join the division-rival Athletics), or made the higher-impact move of acquiring the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto. The Astros and Marlins discussed Realmuto, who’s under control through 2020, and the former reportedly didn’t close the door on giving up premier outfield prospect Kyle Tucker for the backstop. Luhnow doesn’t sound like someone who’s going to trade Tucker, however, instead believing he could be a factor for the Astros as early as this year (and if Gonzalez and Derek Fisher are unsatisfactory in left, that could indeed happen). Regardless, Realmuto’s status will be worth monitoring during the season if the Astros’ combination of Brian McCann, Gattis and Max Stassi doesn’t suffice. McCann and Gattis will be free agents in a year, so acquiring Realmuto during the summer would give the Astros an immediate boost and obviate a need for next offseason in one fell swoop.

As for the Astros’ pitching staff, which we’ve established is a deep and talented group, health is likely the main concern. Keuchel, McCullers and Morton haven’t been all that durable of late, McHugh missed most of last season and Cole is only two years removed from going to the disabled multiple times on account of elbow problems. All of that considered, it’s easy to see why Luhnow kept McHugh around as depth. Just about every team in the league would sign up for having the accomplished McHugh in its rotation, let alone as a sixth or seventh starter, which explains why he drew trade interest during the winter.

Overview

Thanks in part to Luhnow’s offseason maneuverings, the Astros will enter the new campaign as baseball’s best team, though that may have been true even if the GM didn’t make any notable winter moves. Talent-rich Houston is poised at least to win its second straight AL West title after lapping the field a year ago, and despite the offseason efforts of the majors’ other super-teams, the Astros should be seen as the favorites to end up again as the last club standing in the fall.

What’s your take on the Astros’ winter?  (link for app users)

How would you grade the Astros' offseason?
A 52.15% (2,120 votes)
B 36.83% (1,497 votes)
C 7.80% (317 votes)
F 2.29% (93 votes)
D 0.93% (38 votes)
Total Votes: 4,065

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Rounding up of the last two weeks’ worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • Tim Dierkes compiled MLBTR’s annual list of out-of-options players, several of whom could be facing a roster crunch prior to Opening Day.
  • MLBTR began our annual “Offseason In Review” series, recapping and analyzing every team’s winter moves.  The first teams up were the Tigers (by Steve Adams), Marlins (by Jeff Todd), Giants, and Red Sox (both by Mark Polishuk).
  • Steve Adams and Jeff Todd provided an update on the 18 players selected in last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, and how many of those names are on pace to win 25-man roster spots with their new teams.
  • Spring is the time for long-term extensions, with teams looking to lock up both soon-to-be free agents, players entering their arbitration years, or even some less-conventional extension candidates.  To this last point, Jeff Todd examines the case for the Royals to explore an extension with late bloomer Whit Merrifield, who looks to be an important piece for the team in the near future even as K.C. goes into a rebuilding phase.
  • Speaking of extensions, the Astros made headlines this week when they agreed to add five years and $151MM to Jose Altuve’s deal, ensuring that the star second baseman will remain the face of the Houston franchise.  Kyle Downing submitted a pair of polls about the extension to the MLBTR readership, asking them to grade the deal both from the Astros’ perspective and from Altuve’s perspective.

Poll: Grading the Jose Altuve Extension

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Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.

It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.

Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.

Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.

At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Altuve Extension From The Astros' Perspective
A 50.20% (5,385 votes)
B 31.29% (3,357 votes)
C 12.05% (1,293 votes)
D 3.81% (409 votes)
F 2.65% (284 votes)
Total Votes: 10,728

What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)

Grade The Altuve Extension From Altuve's Perspective
A 75.35% (6,299 votes)
B 17.83% (1,491 votes)
C 4.46% (373 votes)
F 1.33% (111 votes)
D 1.03% (86 votes)
Total Votes: 8,360

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

It’s a new era in Miami, but there are sure to be growing pains after a winter of upheaval.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Options

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Marlins 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Marlins Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

The sale of the Marlins to a group led by control person Bruce Sherman was not formally consummated until the end of the 2017 season, so the ensuing winter represented the launching of an entire new era in Marlins baseball. Though the Fish retained baseball operations president Michael Hill and skipper Don Mattingly, the entire organization is now marching to the beat of rookie CEO Derek Jeter.

Bruce Sherman & Derek Jeter

Even as Jeter launched a series of new initiatives on the business side, he and Hill oversaw a major sell-off of MLB assets. That decision drew plenty of indignation, to be sure, but certainly was understandable in many ways. Miami had finished the prior season with just 77 wins and was clearly a few good arms away from being a plausible challenger in a top-loaded National League. The new ownership group’s business plan, meanwhile, required a significant drop in payroll. Skeptics would point out that the spending cut  was necessitated by the hefty purchase price, which chiefly benefited much-reviled former owner Jeffrey Loria.

No matter one’s perspective, the bottom line was plain as could be: the Marlins had to strike multiple trades involving key veterans. With no prospect of saving money on a slate of underperforming contracts to players such as Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler, and Junichi Tazawa, attention turned to a superstar slate of outfielders that made up the core of the team.

The focus, from the get-go, was on superhuman slugger — and reigning NL MVP — Giancarlo Stanton. But the first outfielder the Marlins traded didn’t even play that position in Miami. Second bagger Dee Gordon was shipped to the Mariners to become their new center fielder. As had been expected, Gordon’s fairly significant contract did not allow the Marlins to reap a significant haul in talent.

While not a pure salary dump, the Gordon trade made it clear beyond any question that the team was open for business and ready to move dollars. A steady progression of trade talks ensued.

The Stanton sweepstakes occupied headlines for the first portion of the offseason — so much so that (at the time, at least) many believed his ongoing availability was slowing the rest of the winter business. A no-trade clause left significant power in Stanton’s court and surely didn’t make things easy for Hill. He had lined up deals with the Giants and Cardinals, but meetings between Stanton and those organizations did not facilitate swaps. The Yankees stepped into that void, sending Starlin Castro to fill in for Gordon and help offset a portion of Stanton’s monster contract. While the two prospects in the deal aren’t household names, they’re considered intriguing talents and are certainly known well to Marlins exec Gary Denbo, who came over from the Yankees only months earlier as Jeter’s hand-picked addition to the baseball ops department.

It came as little surprise when, a few days later, the Fish wound up completing a deal with the Cards. Having already talked over quite a few prospects, the teams quickly came together on Marcell Ozuna, who isn’t Stanton’s equal as a player but had a breakout 2017 season and appealing contract situation. With two years of arbitration left, it was clear he’d have to be cashed in now.

It’s no accident that those three players went first. The Marlins’ methodical march down the line was designed to bring some order to the process of auctioning players. It started with those who most clearly needed to be moved to get the salary back in line.

The remainder of the team’s trade chips, though, were not in such black-and-white circumstances. As the calendar flipped to 2018, there were still quite a few trade candidates — some of whom expressed their consternation with the team’s direction publicly. Eventually, in one last major move, the Marlins completed the dismantling of their once-great outfield by sending Christian Yelich to the Brewers — a deal we’ll cover in full below.

The above-described trades, which delivered Castro and a variety of young outfielders at or near major-league readiness, filled some of the gaps they created. Otherwise, Miami has utilized the means familiar to all rebuilding teams to fill out its roster.

The Marlins have thus far completed just one MLB signing, a modest one-year pact with veteran outfielder Cameron Maybin. Given the payroll plan, it’s not surprising that the organization has not been interested in spending on one-year veterans who could prop things up and turn into trade chips. Other than Maybin, the Fish have been content competing jobs among untested rookies and the players who were added through low-risk means over the offseason. As things stand, the Opening Day roster could conceivably include three or four position players who were picked up in minor trades or on minor-league deals, especially with infielders Martin Prado and J.T. Riddle both nursing injuries.

Questions Remaining

Frankly, the Marlins’ future likely won’t be impacted much by the final roster decisions they make coming out of camp. Even if they perform, players like Scott Van Slyke and Jacob Turner are unlikely to be around for very long. At the same time, they won’t be allowed to stand in the way of the development of young talent (or, perhaps, the opportunity to pick up any interesting players who shake loose from other organizations late in camp). We’ll focus here, then, on the longer-term matters that will be impacted by the season to come.

Drastic though the changes have been, the cuts could’ve gone deeper. And they may yet. It’s still a bit surprising that catcher J.T. Realmuto has not been traded with just three years of control remaining (particularly after he requested he be dealt). If he continues to perform, he could be a hotly pursued talent at the trade deadline or next winter. Likewise, righty Dan Straily is a solid and affordable rotation piece who could make quite a lot of sense for other organizations. And though his contract is an obstacle, Castro is a productive and still-youthful player. The latter two players are also both controlled for three campaigns.

True, dealing either of those players would mean opening a rather significant hole on the roster. At the right price, though, the Marlins have to be willing to make a move. Odds are, after all, that the rebuilding process will still be ongoing as these three quality performers are nearing the open market.

Those aren’t the only trade candidates whose performances will be watched in 2018. First baseman Justin Bour could hold appeal, though there’s also not much reason to think demand will be robust given the collapse of the market for similar sluggers. Brad Ziegler will function as the closer in Miami and will be a clear trade candidate if he can engineer a bounceback campaign. Reliever Junichi Tazawa is also seeking to make good in the second year of his free-agent deal. Veteran infielder Martin Prado and lefty Wei-Yin Chen are owed far more than their market value at present, though perhaps the Fish could save some future salary obligations if things break right.

Of course, money isn’t the only factor in the rebuild. The young talent brought back in the team’s various winter swaps will also be looked upon to develop a new core that can generate fan excitement and ultimately spur a return to contention. In some cases, perhaps, the organization will be able to see the future right from the get-go. Righty Sandy Alcantara and outfielder Magneuris Sierra, both acquired in the Ozuna deal, could well contribute in 2018. But most eyes will be on the players recouped in the club’s most interesting winter trade …

Deal of Note

Sure, the Stanton deal created the most intrigue. But it was nearly inevitable that his huge contract would be moved when the organization determined it couldn’t support a payroll increase to build around the existing core. Failed signings that had been intended to build around the team’s three exciting young outfielders largely sealed the fate of Stanton and Ozuna.

But Yelich’s situation was somewhat different. Unlike Ozuna, he accepted an early-career extension. And it worked out swimmingly. The 26-year-old Yelich has been steadily productive and has even shown some promise of improving further. And the price, of course, is quite appealing — so much so that he did not necessarily have to be traded. Yelich is owed just $7MM for the coming season, with future salaries that never top $15MM through 2022 (the last year via option).

Those same factors also made Yelich plenty marketable, though, and the Marlins were obviously able to generate enough interest to pull the trigger on a move. Giving up five affordable seasons of a quality young regular is a tough thing to do. This trade, more than the others, has the potential to sting if the players acquired don’t live up to expectations.

The Marlins no doubt hope that Lewis Brinson will be an exciting, high-value performer right out of the gates. He’s likely to step right into Yelich’s shoes in center. After all, Brinson has nothing more to prove at Triple-A and has enjoyed a productive spring thus far. While he’s expected to be a productive defender, though, there are divergent views on his likely outcome as a hitter, so there’s still some risk here.

If the Fish really hit it big, they’ll end up with two new outfielders out of this deal, as they were also able to pry Monte Harrison from the Brewers. The 22-year-old ripped up High-A pitching last year and may not be too far from the big leagues if he can show similarly in the upper minors. Like Brinson, Harrison has tools aplenty, though he has more developmental hurdles still left to clear.

Both of the other players acquired in this deal, infielder Isan Diaz and righty Jordan Yamamoto, are graded among the Marlins’ top 25 or so prospects. They’re joined by a host of other players who came to the organization in this winter’s trading frenzy.

Overview

By and large, the coming season will be focused on development and weighing transactional opportunities — including both trades of existing veterans and perhaps also keeping an eye out for talented players who can be had for a low acquisition cost from other teams. The Marlins will be evaluating players such as Brian Anderson, J.T. Riddle, and Justin Nicolino, in addition to some of those listed above, while hoping that righty Jose Urena can show that his solid 2017 results weren’t a fluke.

While the new ownership group has already taken the brunt of fan frustration over the selloff, though, that doesn’t mean it’s time to coast. The baseball ops department still has some very tough potential decisions ahead of it on talented and popular players.

How would you grade the Marlins’ efforts this winter? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Marlins' Offseason?
F 42.46% (1,482 votes)
D 21.23% (741 votes)
C 16.96% (592 votes)
B 13.27% (463 votes)
A 6.07% (212 votes)
Total Votes: 3,490

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Spring Training Rule 5 Update

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There were 18 players selected in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft — which is to say that 18 players who were left off their organizations’ respective 40-man rosters were selected by a new team and given a chance to break camp on a 25-man roster.

Eligibility for the Rule 5 Draft is dependent on age and minor league service time, but the Rule 5 is generally an opportunity for potential big leaguers who aren’t in their clubs’ immediate plans to break through elsewhere, so long as they can remain on their new club’s roster/disabled list for the entire season — including at least 90 days of active roster time. (A player who falls shy of those 90 days of active service due to DL time retains his Rule 5 status in following seasons until he has accumulated 90 active days on the 25-man roster.) Rule 5 players cannot be optioned to the minors without first being passed through outright waivers and, if they clear, then offered back to their original club for $50K (half of the $100K cost of making a Rule 5 pick in the first place).

Here’s a look at the spring standing of the current slate of Rule 5 picks:

  • Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (selected out of D-backs organization): The 23-year-old Reyes is hitting just .200/.243/.229 through 37 plate appearances after being selected with the No. 1 pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Obviously that’s not the performance Detroit was hoping to receive, though that hasn’t ruled him out for a roster spot on a rebuilding club. Manager Ron Gardenhire recently called it a “really big” decision when chatting with the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech, who examines the decision at greater length in his column.
  • Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): The 22-year-old Fernandez has yet to pitch above A-ball since debuting as a 17-year-old back in 2013, and he’s been hammered for 10 runs on six hits and four walks with six strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings with the Giants this spring. It’s tough to see him sticking, even if he can top 102 mph with his heater (as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper noted on Twitter at the time of the draft).
  • Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade with Phillies): Burdi, recovering from Tommy John surgery, has yet to pitch this spring and will be on the disabled list to open the season.
  • Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade with White Sox): Tocci has swiped six bags and reportedly shown good leatherwork in the outfield, making him a plausible reserve outfield candidate if the Rangers decide to prioritize those attributes in rounding out their bench. On the other hand, he’s struggling at the plate this spring and does not exactly have a lengthy track record of hitting in the upper minors.
  • Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs, via trade with Reds): Though he managed only a 4.68 ERA at the Double-A level last year, Keller is being looked at as a reliever by a Kansas City organization that is in need of pitching depth. He has recorded seven strikeouts in six spring innings and seems to have a solid shot at taking a job.
  • Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade with Mets): Once a well-regarded prospect whose career was derailed by injury, Smith put up some interesting numbers in the Arizona Fall League (including 29 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings). He has been a bit wild this spring, handing out eight free passes in eight frames, but could join Keller in the K.C. pen.
  • Anyelo Gomez, RHP, Braves (from Yankees): Yet another interesting player in a Yankees system that is producing too much talent for the team’s 40-man roster, Gomez ran up the ladder in a strong 2017 season, briefly reaching Triple-A and ending with a cumulative output of 70 1/3 innings of 1.92 ERA pitching with 11.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. He hasn’t dominated this spring, but the Braves obviously like his arm and have plenty of reason to try to hang onto him in a year in which they do not expect to compete for the postseason.
  • Nestor Cortes, LHP, Orioles (from Yankees): What’s that we were saying about the Yankees? Ah yes, another such player. The 23-year-old just ran up over a hundred innings of 2.06 ERA ball in the upper minors, with 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. He has held his own as a starter this spring, too. With the O’s in need of both lefty relievers and rotation depth, he seems to be on track for a job.
  • Jordan Milbrath, RHP, Pirates (from Indians): An intriguing side-arm reliever, Milbrath certainly came into camp with a shot at cracking the Pittsburgh pen. But it’s fair to wonder if that’s still possible now that he has struggled through six outings, coughing up eight earned runs on eight hits and seven walks in 5 1/3 innings.
  • Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): The pitching-needy Marlins snagged Hernandez after he showed well at the High-A level and in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has impressed this spring with nine strikeouts and no walks over ten innings, so the Marlins have every reason to stash him in the bullpen.
  • Mike Ford, 1B, Mariners (from Yankees): An injury to Ryon Healy initially looked like it could help to open a door for Ford, but it’s a fairly short-term issue for Healy, and Ford is hitting just .150/.292/.325 through 48 PAs this spring. With Daniel Vogelbach on hand as another lefty swinging first base/designated hitter option, Ford could have a tough time sticking in Seattle.
  • Luke Bard, RHP, Angels (from Twins): Bard was shelled for five runs in one-third of an inning in one of his outing but has otherwise impressed the Halos this spring, as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times recently wrote. Manager Mike Scioscia, in particular, sounded encouraged by Bard’s ability to throw multiple innings per outing. At present, he seems to have a decet chance of making the Angels’ roster.
  • Tyler Kinley, RHP, Twins (from Marlins): The hard-throwing Kinley has allowed just two runs in seven innings with the Twins, but while he’s whiffed seven hitters in that time he’s also walked five. The Twins signed three free-agent relievers this winter and are aiming to contend in 2018, making it tough to see Kinley sticking on the roster all season (or even breaking camp with the club).
  • Albert Suarez, RHP, D-backs (from Giants): Suarez has a 3.72 ERA with an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio in 10 2/3 innings for the D-backs this spring. His chances of landing a bullpen spot improved somewhat with an oblique injury to Randall Delgado. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently pointed out, because Suarez has been previously outrighted off the Giants’ 40-man roster, he would not need to be offered back to the Giants if he clears waivers and could instead elect free agency.
  • Anthony Gose, LHP, Astros (from Rangers): Gose was already placed on waivers by the Astros and returned to the Rangers after clearing.
  • Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): The Baltimore organization certainly seems to be impressed with Araujo. He generated plenty of swings and misses in 2017 and has carried that over into camp, with seven Ks and just one walk in his five innings.
  • Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from A’s): Though he produced tepid results in his first effort at the Double-A level last year, Graves maintained a solid K/BB ratio and obviously caught the Marlins’ eye. But he has had a messy spring and is now slowed by an oblique strain, so the odds are against him going north with the MLB team.
  • Jose Mesa, RHP, Orioles (from Yankees): Indications are that Mesa is not quite keeping pace with his two fellow Rule 5 hurlers. Indeed, he has surrendered five walks and five earned runs in his 5 2/3 innings of Grapefruit League action.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The rebuilding Tigers did much of their heavy lifting on the trade front last summer, when they shipped out Justin Upton, Justin Verlander, Justin Wilson and J.D. Martinez, leading to a relatively quiet winter for the team that holds the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. GM Al Avila and his staff made a handful of small-scale free-agent pickups and one notable trade as they continue to look toward the future.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The primary need for the Tigers over the past year-plus has simply been to build up a farm system that was depleted by years of aggressive “win-now” moves that left the minor league ranks perilously thin. In that same vein, paring back the big league payroll to clear room for future commitments has been paramount.

With that in mind, the Tigers surprised no one when they moved their top remaining trade chip: Ian Kinsler. A saturated market for second basemen and a sub-par 2017 season at the plate held down Kinsler’s value on the trade market, and his limited no-trade protection tied Avila’s hands. Detroit ultimately landed outfielder Troy Montgomery (ranked 26th among Tigers farmhands by MLB.com) and righty Wikel Hernandez in exchange for the veteran, shedding $12MM in 2018 payroll in the process.

Turning to the 2018 roster, while it certainly wouldn’t behoove the Tigers to spend heavily on rotation upgrades in a season where they’re likely to be one of the league’s worst teams, Detroit unquestionably lacked starting depth. Jordan Zimmermann has struggled enormously in his first two seasons with the Tigers. Michael Fulmer was coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery. Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris have displayed flashes of potential but have not yet solidified themselves as long-term rotation cogs. Beyond that, the team’s options were thin.

Affordable deals for Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano give the Tigers a pair of veteran stopgaps who could potentially become trade assets themselves this summer. In Fiers’ case, if he thrives in Detroit, he’s also controllable for the 2019 season via arbitration, making him all the more logical a piece. It’s cliche to call Liriano mercurial at this point, but the lefty has long shown a wide variance of outcomes on a season to season basis, and if the Tigers can get him to harness his control, he could net a semi-interesting piece this summer. Adding that pair could mean that Norris begins the year in Triple-A, whereas the out-of-options Boyd is a lock to make the roster.

The Tigers faced a similar dearth of outfield options and, accordingly, made a similarly low-cost stopgap acquisition in signing Leonys Martin to a one-year pact. Like Fiers, he’s controllable through the 2019 season via arbitration and could either emerge as a trade piece this summer or an affordable option over a two-year term. The fleet-footed veteran gives the Tigers an above-average defender in center field who can provide value on the bases even if his bat doesn’t bounce back to its 2013-14 and 2016 levels.

Detroit was undoubtedly pleased with the contributions of John Hicks at backup catcher last year, but given his lack of a track record in the Majors they brought in veterans such as Derek Norris, Brayan Pena and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as minor league depth options. The need for a utility infielder led to a comparable blend of minor league signings in Alexi Amarista, Pete Kozma and Niko Goodrum.

Questions Remaining

The list of remaining questions for the Tigers, as one would expect in the early stages of a rebuild, is plentiful. At present, the team lacks clear long-term options at both middle-infield positions and all around the outfield. Detroit’s system, at least, is stacked with outfield prospects, including Daz Cameron, Derek Hill and Christin Stewart, among many others. The infield, however, is murkier. While there’s some hope that Dawel Lugo (acquired in the J.D. Martinez trade) and Isaac Paredes (Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade) could hold down infield spots in the long term, neither is considered a elite prospect by national outlets. That, of course, hardly means they won’t establish themselves as regulars, but it’s worth noting that the vast majority of Detroit’s top-ranked prospects are pitchers and outfielders.

That’s all the more problematic with Jose Iglesias in his final year of control and likely to be traded this summer. Dixon Machado has yet to prove his mettle in the Majors but will be handed the keys at second base. The lack of infield depth made the Tigers a logical suitor for someone like Neil Walker from my vantage point, as he’d have pushed Machado to a utility role (until Iglesias was traded at the very least) and could’ve emerged as a trade chip himself. Perhaps Walker wasn’t interested in signing with a rebuilding club, or perhaps the Tigers simply felt it better to give Machado everyday at-bats sooner rather than later. Regardless, their lack of infield depth seems fairly glaring.

Perhaps, then, that’ll be a potential area of focus as the Tigers look to do some further summer shopping on the trade market. Offseason pickups such as Fiers, Liriano and Martin all figure to be widely available, as do Iglesias and corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, both of whom were shopped this offseason but ultimately remained with the club. (The Tigers also reportedly explored extension talks with Castellanos, but it doesn’t seem as if the sides gained much traction.)

The larger question facing Detroit this summer will no doubt be whether the time is right to cash in on larger chips such as presumptive closer Shane Greene and, much more significantly, ace Michael Fulmer. While Fulmer in particular could be viewed as a building block, he’ll also likely be considered a difference-maker to contenders looking to bolster their rotations leading up to a postseason push.

The Tigers will be marketing a whopping four and a half years of control over Fulmer, which could lead to franchise-altering offers of young talent for the 2016 Rookie of the Year. Detroit, no doubt, would only move him for an otherworldly return given the lack of urgency to market him, but teams figure to line up with enticing offers. Scoring a big return in what feels like an increasingly likely trade of Fulmer — be it this summer or at some later point in the next 18 months — could rapidly accelerate the rebuild for Al Avila & Co.

Beyond that, this is largely a season where the Tigers will need to find out what they have in some key young pieces. Can Daniel Norris and Boyd cement themselves as big league starters? (And, if so, could they also be marketed this July or next winter? Norris actually has less team control remaining than Fulmer.) Can Jeimer Candelario establish himself as a starting-caliber third baseman? Is JaCoby Jones an everyday option in the outfield or more of a utility piece? It’s a critical year for several young pieces around the roster as the Tigers evaluate who will comprise the core of their next contending roster.

Overview

The Tigers brought in several stopgap options, as one would typically expect from a rebuilding club, but they held off on cashing in on some of their more appealing chips in Michael Fulmer and Shane Greene. Both could find themselves on the market again this winter, along with a host of other names, as Detroit still looks to be years away from once again emerging as a perennial threat. While last year’s deadline deals were as much about shedding salary as they were acquiring talent, their July maneuverings will take a different tone this summer, as they’ll be marketing more affordable and (in some cases) controllable assets.

Those deals, paired with the expiration of Victor Martinez’s contract following the 2018 season, should help push the Tigers’ rebuild to the next stage, though the ultimate progress of that rebuilding effort will be largely dependent on whether their young assets that’ve already reached the Majors can break out in 2018. The Tigers have done quite a bit of maintenance on their long-term payroll since embarking on this rebuild, and their farm is in much better shape, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.

How do you grade the Tigers’ offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Tigers' Offseason?
C 35.01% (1,134 votes)
D 27.60% (894 votes)
B 17.32% (561 votes)
F 16.76% (543 votes)
A 3.30% (107 votes)
Total Votes: 3,239

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

With the big exception of a prominent new slugger, the Red Sox will head into 2018 with largely the same roster that won them the AL East last season.

Major League Signings

  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: Five years, $110MM (deal contains player opt-out clauses after the second, third, and fourth seasons; Red Sox can potentially convert fourth and fifth seasons into mutual options)
  • Mitch Moreland, 1B: Two years, $13MM
  • Eduardo Nunez, IF: Two years, $8MM (Nunez can exercise $2MM buyout and opt out of contract after 2018)
  • Total spend: $131MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Red Sox 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Red Sox Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

It isn’t a stretch to say that Boston’s entire offseason revolved around a single player.  While the Red Sox did their due diligence by checking in on some other big free agent bats (such as Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, and Logan Morrison), J.D. Martinez had long seemed like a natural fit, particularly given his past association with Dave Dombrowski.  As well, Martinez’s numbers over the last four seasons — .300/.362/.574 with 128 homers — set him apart as the consistent, elite bat that the Sox were lacking last season in the wake of David Ortiz’s retirement.

It did take a while for the deal to be struck, both because agent Scott Boras was surely trying to find at least one more big-money suitor for his client and because the Red Sox saw no reason to offer anything close to Boras’s initial $200MM asking price for Martinez given the lack of competition.  The Diamondbacks were the only other team that seemed like a serious consideration for Martinez, but even they were a longshot due to a lack of payroll flexibility.

Even once a deal was struck, it still took another week for contractual terms to be fully worked out, resulting in quite a bit of flexibility for both sides.  Martinez can opt out of the deal after the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons, while the Red Sox can turn the contract’s final two years into mutual options should Martinez spend significant time on the DL due to injuries related to the Lisfranc foot problem that sidelined him for part of the 2017 campaign.  These terms reflect some extra caution for a franchise that has been burned on several expensive free agent signings in recent years, and if Martinez plays well enough to opt out at the first opportunity, the Red Sox would have to feel pretty satisfied at getting elite production on what would become a two-year, $50MM commitment without having to worry about a decline on the contract’s back end.

Martinez will spend most of his time as a designated hitter, occasionally stepping into some corner outfield duty to spell Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley Jr. against left-handed pitching.  Bradley was himself the subject of some trade speculation this winter, though the Sox never seemed particularly keen on the idea of moving a controllable player who offers outstanding baserunning and defense, plus some above-average hitting numbers in the past.  With Martinez willing to accept a role as the primary DH (but also eager to improve upon his recent poor showing as a defender), the Red Sox were able to both upgrade their lineup while also keeping their elite defensive outfield formation of Benintendi/Bradley/Mookie Betts intact.

While Boston had been linked to several first base names earlier in the offseason, the team made the somewhat surprising move (two months before signing Martinez) of bringing Mitch Moreland back into the fold on a two-year deal.  Moreland provides solid numbers against right-handed pitching and a very good glove at first base, but his contract landed a fair sight higher than other, similarly productive first basemen. In any event, he’ll now participate in some sort of timeshare with Hanley Ramirez at first, with Ramirez also seeing time at DH when Martinez is in the field.

Also returning to the infield mix is Eduardo Nunez, who will eventually settle into a utilityman role but will suit up as Boston’s starting second baseman for at least the first few weeks of the regular season.  Dustin Pedroia is hopeful that his recovery from knee surgery will allow him to return a bit earlier than the originally-projected seven-month timeframe, but if not, the Sox now have a very solid replacement at the keystone in Nunez.  With Marco Hernandez out until May due to shoulder surgery, Nunez will provide the Sox with some valuable infield depth, including at third base should Rafael Devers have a sophomore slump.

Questions Remaining

Dombrowski has spoken in the past about how Boston’s established pitching staff makes it hard for the club to attract notable veterans as minor league depth, as those pitchers prefer to join teams that provide clearer opportunities to win big league jobs.  This particular issue could become an early problem for the Sox given that two members of their projected starting five could now begin the season on the disabled list.  Drew Pomeranz’s spring work was delayed by a mild flexor strain, and it isn’t known if he’ll be ready by Opening Day.  Meanwhile Eduardo Rodriguez and sixth starter Steven Wright were already expected to start the year on the DL as they continue to recover from knee and shoulder surgeries, respectively.

While none of these seem like terribly long-term problems, it isn’t a good sign given that Pomeranz and Rodriguez have both dealt with multiple injury concerns in the past.  David Price is also looking to return to health (and effectiveness) after a 2017 season marred by elbow problems.  With Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez currently representing Boston’s top starting pitching depth options, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sox make a signing later this spring or even into April — especially should Pomeranz, Rodriguez or even Wright experience a setback.  Some pretty significant names still remain in the free agent pitching market at this late stage. It’s also possible that starting pitching could be targeted as needed at the trade deadline.

Turning to the relief corps, Robby Scott is the only left-hander currently projected as a member of Boston’s Opening Day bullpen, with Roenis Elias and rookie Williams Jerez also representing southpaw options on the 40-man roster.   Beyond that pair, 25-year-old Bobby Poyner has opened some eyes in camp, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter).  The Sox didn’t make a particular push to add any relief help this winter given that they already have several pen options on hand, and while Elias could re-emerge after an injury-plagued 2017, left-handed relief could be another area to watch come the July trade deadline.

Between Moreland at first base and Martinez at DH, it remains to be seen how big a factor Ramirez will be this season, and the playing-time arrangement could make it difficult for Ramirez to reach the 497 plate appearances he requires for his $22MM option for 2019 to vest.  Ramirez’s three years in Boston have seen him sandwich an excellent 2016 season in between disappointing performances in 2015 and 2017, so it’s hard to know what to really expect from the veteran slugger this season.  New manager Alex Cora still sees Ramirez as a major part of the team’s lineup, and since Ramirez underwent shoulder surgery last October, it could be that his bat will reawaken now that he’s healthy. The odds are good, though, that the organization will not allow his option to vest even if he’s healthy and productive.

While many big-market teams looked to get under the $197MM luxury tax threshold this offseason, as the Red Sox did last year, Boston will once more sail over the tax line with just over $237MM in projected salary for 2018.  Quite a bit of money will come off the books after the season (Ramirez if his option doesn’t vest, plus Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel will be free agents), though several key players on the roster will absorb a lot of that freed-up money in the form of arbitration raises.  While the Sox clearly have an internal budget, they haven’t shown much hesitation in spending heavily to remain competitive. Having recently re-set their tax rate, the Red Sox likely won’t weigh CBT considerations too heavily, though they are close to pushing their payroll high enough to trigger some additional penalties.

Overview

It was a pretty quiet winter overall for the Red Sox, as they didn’t really have too many glaring needs to fill on an already-deep roster.  Cora’s hiring, a renewed focus on analytics, and better luck avoiding the injury bug could be all Boston needs to revive a lineup that had trouble hitting the ball out of the park last year, though obviously Martinez’s addition will greatly help in the thunder department.  The other question is if the Sox did enough to keep pace in the division, as the back-to-back AL East champs now find themselves as underdogs against a Yankees team that became even more fearsome this winter.

What’s your take on Boston’s offseason moves?  (Link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Red Sox Offseason?
B 48.86% (3,247 votes)
C 27.19% (1,807 votes)
A 13.05% (867 votes)
F 5.64% (375 votes)
D 5.27% (350 votes)
Total Votes: 6,646

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Out Of Options 2018

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources when possible, but may be incomplete for a handful of teams. I’ll update the post as confirmed information comes in.

Angels

Jose Alvarez, Cam Bedrosian, Jefry Marte, Blake Parker, Carlos Perez, J.C. Ramirez, Noe Ramirez, Alex Meyer

Astros

Max Stassi, Brad Peacock

Athletics

Liam Hendriks, Raul Alcantara, Renato Nunez, Chris Hatcher

Blue Jays

Randal Grichuk

Braves

Lane Adams, Charlie Culberson, Sam Freeman, Jose Ramirez

Brewers

Jesus Aguilar, Jett Bandy, Oliver Drake, Jeremy Jeffress, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar, Stephen Vogt

Cardinals

Tyler Lyons, Tommy Pham, Greg Garcia, Sam Tuivailala, Miles Mikolas

Cubs

Eddie Butler, Justin Grimm, Mike Montgomery

Diamondbacks

Brad Boxberger, Chris Herrmann, T.J. McFarland, John Ryan Murphy, Albert Suarez

Dodgers

Tony Cingrani, Wilmer Font, Tom Koehler, Trayce Thompson

Giants

Cory Gearrin, Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland, Gorkys Hernandez, Jarrett Parker

Indians

Erik Gonzalez, Ryan Merritt, Rob Refsnyder, Giovanny Urshela, Trevor Bauer, Dan Otero, Danny Salazar

Mariners

Marco Gonzales, Mike Morin, Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Vincent

Marlins

Derek Dietrich, Justin Nicolino, Dan Straily, Tomas Telis, Jose Urena

Mets

Wilmer Flores, Rafael Montero, Kevin Plawecki

Nationals

A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, Matt Grace, Enny Romero

Orioles

Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Mike Wright, Gabriel Ynoa

Padres

Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, Matt Szczur, Christian Villanueva, Bryan Mitchell

Phillies

Jorge Alfaro, Luis Garcia, Cesar Hernandez, Adam Morgan

Pirates

Bryce Brentz, Elias Diaz, George Kontos, Felipe Rivero, A.J. Schugel, Nik Turley*

Rangers

Juan Centeno, Jurickson Profar

Rays

Chris Archer, Alex Colome, C.J. Cron, Dan Jennings, Chaz Roe, Jesus Sucre

Red Sox

Brian Johnson, Deven Marrero, Steven Wright, Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg, Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart

Reds

Dilson Herrera

Rockies

Zac Rosscup, Chris Rusin

Royals

Jesse Hahn, Cheslor Cuthbert, Brian Flynn, Wily Peralta, Jorge Soler

Tigers

Mike Fiers, John Hicks, Dixon Machado, Leonys Martin, Drew VerHagen

Twins

Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Pressly, Kennys Vargas

White Sox

Leury Garcia, Matt Davidson, Luis Avilan, Danny Farquhar, Yolmer Sanchez

Yankees

Austin Romine, Chasen Shreve, Dellin Betances, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

* on restricted list

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

It may take some time for baseball fans to adjust to Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen in different uniforms, but the Giants are hoping that these two veteran stars can help erase the memory of an ugly 2017 campaign at AT&T Park.

Major League Signings

  • Tony Watson, RP: Two years, $9MM (includes a $2.5MM player option for 2020 that has a $500K buyout)
  • Austin Jackson, OF: Two years, $6MM
  • Nick Hundley, C: One year, $2.5MM
  • Total spend: $17.5MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Giants 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Giants Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

No team received less from its outfielders (to the tune of a cumulative 0.8 fWAR and -2.5 bWAR) in 2017 than the Giants, so it was no surprise that San Francisco was connected in rumors to just about every outfielder available in free agency or trade talks.  The major prize ended up being McCutchen, as the longtime Pirates icon was acquired for a pair of notable-but-not-elite prospects (Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds), $500K in international bonus pool money and the Giants’ willingness to absorb $12.25MM of McCutchen’s $14.75MM salary in 2018.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen’s declining defensive numbers as a center fielder won’t be an issue, as the Giants have already announced that the former NL MVP will be the everyday right fielder.  (Pittsburgh also intended to deploy McCutchen in right field last season before Starling Marte’s suspension forced McCutchen back into regular center field duty.)  The position change should better suit McCutchen’s defensive skillset at this stage of his career, and his bat already made a nice rebound in 2017 after a very disappointing 2016 season.  McCutchen is also scheduled to hit free agency next winter, so while the Giants gave up a significant amount for just one year of his services, the club also has the freedom to pursue a longer-term solution if it so chooses after the season.

The outfield depth chart received another boost in the form of Austin Jackson, coming off an outstanding (though quite possibly BABIP-fueled) 318 plate appearances for the Indians last season.  Jackson is currently penciled in for the bulk of time in center field, though he could shift into a general fourth outfielder role if rookie Steven Duggar wins himself a roster spot in Spring Training. Denard Span, the Giants’ regular center fielder for the past two seasons, is no longer an option after being dealt to Tampa Bay (in a salary offset situation) as part of San Francisco’s other blockbuster deal of the offseason.

Longoria will look to stabilize a third base position that has become another problem area for the Giants, with former third baseman-of-the-future Christian Arroyo serving as the prospect centerpiece of the deal with the Rays.  There are certainly some questions surrounding the Longoria trade, as we’ll cover later. The Giants will no doubt be happy if the veteran can at least replicate his 2017 performance (2.5 fWAR, 3.6 bWAR).

Of course, all of that took place against the backdrop of a tough balancing effort of making hefty roster upgrades while staying below the $197MM luxury tax threshold.  With Longoria and McCutchen’s hefty salaries joining the ledger, the Giants found payroll space by unloading Span to the Rays, and also by trading Matt Moore and his $9.75MM to the Rangers.

Some more payroll creativity was required to sign southpaw Tony Watson, whose two-year deal only officially guarantees $9MM over three years (if he exercises a player option for the 2020 season) but also allows him to earn more than twice that number by reaching various incentive clauses.  Watson is coming off a bit of a down year by his standards, though given the size of other reliever contracts on the open market this year, he may prove to be a nice bargain for the Giants.  Ultimately, like many teams this offseason, the Giants weren’t too active in free agency, only making modest agreements with Watson, Jackson, and backup catcher Nick Hundley.

Notable moves also took place off the field in San Francisco.  President of baseball operations Brian Sabean is again taking more of a hands-on role in the front office’s day-to-day moves, while several long-time coaches were shifted either to new coaching duties or into front office roles.

Questions Remaining

Of all the outfielders linked to the Giants, the most notable was Giancarlo Stanton, and the Giants were deep in talks with the Marlins about a trade that would’ve seen the Giants reportedly covering some or all of the $295MM on Stanton’s contract.  While both the Giants and Cardinals submitted offers to Miami’s liking, however, Stanton wasn’t willing to waive his no-trade protection to join either team, eventually approving a deal to the Yankees.

Needless to say, adding Stanton would’ve completely changed the Giants’ plans.  The club would’ve had less salary flexibility and might well have abandoned its plan to get under the competitive balance tax entirely.  While one can certainly argue that McCutchen and Longoria at two positions make for more of a help than Stanton at one position, a Giants team with Stanton in right field plus some prospects (Arroyo, Crick, etc.) still bolstering an already-thin farm system and a willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold might’ve been better positioned to address remaining needs.  Rather than add Longoria for the long term and McCutchen for the short term, would the Giants have been better off with Stanton as the long-term asset and a third baseman like Todd Frazier (who only found a two-year deal with the Mets) as a shorter-term answer? That was certainly the team’s preference, but it wasn’t able to convince the superstar to come to San Francisco.

On the other hand, that aforementioned lack of prospect depth could’ve also been the reason why the Giants weren’t able to swing deals for other notable outfielders on the market, like Christian Yelich or Marcell Ozuna.  The Giants also weren’t keen on the idea of giving up a draft pick as compensation for signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, such as Lorenzo Cain (who could’ve solved the center field hole), given the organization’s strong placement in the 2018 draft.  Given both of these factors, the McCutchen trade looks like a solid move for San Francisco, assuming that 2016 truly was just an aberration for McCutchen.

Evan LongoriaLongoria’s situation, though, is a bit more complicated. His 2017 season, which ended with a .261/.313/.424 slash line, represented the first campaign in which he graded a below-average run creator (96) in Fangraphs’ wRC+ metric.  He also hit more grounders and fewer fly balls than any other season in his ten-year career.  While still a durable player and a good defender, Longoria could very well be on the decline as he enters his age-32 season.  Though the Rays added some money in the trade, the Giants still owe Longoria $73.5MM over the next five seasons, making him yet another high-priced veteran on the San Francisco roster who is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2017.  He is something of an odd fit on a team that entered the winter looking to theoretically get younger and cheaper, though the Giants have traditionally been open to adding experienced players and, if anything, feel veteran players may be underrated in the current baseball marketplace.

Though outfield defense was a priority for the team, the planned alignment of McCutchen in right field, Jackson in center and Hunter Pence in left represents only a moderate improvement; while McCutchen should help in right, Jackson’s defensive metrics as a center fielder have been at best mixed for several years.  Duggar is widely regarded as a strong defender and he has some strong hitting and on-base numbers in the minors, though he hasn’t had much Triple-A (or even Double-A) playing time.  A jump to the big leagues might be a reach unless the Giants are willing to accept Duggar as strictly a glove-only player in the early going.  Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, or minor league signing Gregor Blanco could also see time in center field, though none are optimal options. Presumably, McCutchen could get the occasional start in a pinch.

Moore suffered through a very rough 2017 season, so the Giants may have felt the $9.75MM ticketed for the left-hander was better utilized elsewhere rather than hoping that Moore could rebound.  His departure, however, leaves the team with a lot of inexperienced pitchers battling for two rotation spots rather than one.  Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are the favorites to be the fourth and fifth starters, with rookies Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, Tyler Herb, Joan Gregorio also in the mix, and veterans Derek Holland and Chris Heston in camp on minor league contracts.

Were the Giants not already so close to the $197MM tax threshold, another veteran starter (even a mid-tier name, not of the Jake Arrieta/Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb class) would be a big help, though a price fit simply doesn’t seem possible unless the Giants could move salary elsewhere.  With this payroll crunch in mind, the Giants were surely disappointed to fall short in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, as San Francisco was one of seven finalists for the Japanese two-way star before he eventually signed with the Angels.

Watson ended up being the only significant addition to a bullpen that struggled overall last year, though a healthy Mark Melancon would go a long way towards improving matters.  The plethora of young starters that miss out on the rotation battle could also provide some further depth behind Melancon, Watson, Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin, and Steven Okert.  Rule 5 draft pick Julian Fernandez is also in the mix but a total wild card, as he has never pitched above the A-ball level.  Veteran lefty Will Smith is targeted to return in May or June after undergoing Tommy John surgery almost a year ago.

Overview

While the Giants are clearly planning to contend in 2018, this season could also serve as something of a bridge year for the franchise.  Come next winter, the Giants will have McCutchen and Pence off the books, be free of a recurring luxury tax penalty, and be positioned exceed the threshold in pursuit of expensive free agents (such as Bryce Harper?) or trade chips.  By then, the club should also have more of an idea of what it has in younger talents like Blach, Stratton, and Duggar, or even more-established players like Joe Panik.  The Giants may also have advanced further in extension talks with ace Madison Bumgarner. A total rebuild doesn’t seem likely even in the event of another 98-loss season, though the Giants would surely look to move some veterans at the trade deadline.

Despite this uncertainty, San Francisco still went ahead to further bolster its veteran core, and Longoria and McCutchen should provide quite a bit more value than Span and Moore did last season (or are likely to provide this season).  The Giants have left themselves with very little luxury tax room to maneuver for upgrades at the trade deadline, though the team still has its upper crust of prospects — Heliot Ramos, Beede, Chris Shaw — to offer if a big acquisition is required.

Rather than the start of a decline period for a veteran team, 2017 could potentially be seen as simply a perfect storm of fluke injuries (especially Bumgarner’s) and subpar performances — if, at least, the team’s veterans can return to their 2016 form.  Between McCutchen, Longoria, and the low-cost free agent signings, the Giants might have filled all the holes they need to fill, provided some of their younger players can step up.

What’s your take on the Giants’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason Moves?
B 50.92% (2,964 votes)
C 24.81% (1,444 votes)
A 15.51% (903 votes)
D 5.38% (313 votes)
F 3.38% (197 votes)
Total Votes: 5,821

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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