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MLBTR Poll: Masahiro Tanaka’s Future

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Whether Angels left fielder Justin Upton opts out of his contract will serve as one of the most intriguing storylines during the early part of Major League Baseball’s upcoming offseason. The same opt-out question applies to Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who may have an easier decision than Upton. While Upton has four years and $88.5MM left on his contract, Tanaka’s remaining pact consists of fewer years and dollars (three and $67MM, respectively). But that doesn’t necessarily make it a slam-dunk call for Tanaka, who, unlike Upton, has had a bit of a rocky season in what could amount to a platform year.

Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka, who emigrated from Japan on a seven-year, $155MM agreement in 2014, emerged as a front-end starter in the Bronx from the get-go and entered 2017 off a strong three-season stretch. Over 75 starts and 490 innings, the splitter-loving Tanaka logged a 3.12 ERA with 8.17 K/9 against 1.54 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. The only full-time American League starters to post a better ERA during that span were Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez and Garrett Richards, while just nine outdid Tanaka’s combined 10.0 fWAR.

Judging solely on fWAR (2.3), Tanaka is having another good season, though the 28-year-old trails 41 other major league starters in that category. Meanwhile, among the 112 hurlers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year, Tanaka is a below-average 73rd in ERA (4.54, tied with fellow opt-out candidate Johnny Cueto).

Fortunately for Tanaka, the run prevention problems he has had in 2017 aren’t nearly as dire as they appear. A bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (20 percent, up from 14.1 percent over the previous three years) is the main culprit, but Tanaka has only yielded eight long balls in 78 innings dating back to June 17, when his ERA sat at 6.34 and his HR total was already at 21 through 76 1/3 frames. Since then, Tanaka has notched nine quality starts in 12 outings – including a gem against the Red Sox on Saturday – pitched to a 2.77 ERA and racked up 82 strikeouts against 15 walks. Those are ace-like numbers, and a newfound reliance on his slider is among the reasons for Tanaka’s summer success, as FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris explained Friday.

Thanks in part to his adeptness over the past month-plus, Tanaka ranks 13th among starters this season in strikeout-walk percentage (18.7), 13th in infield fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and 15th in the grounder department (49.3 percent). Those are all encouraging signs, clearly, as is the fact that his velocity looks normal. Tanaka should hit the 30-start mark for the second straight year, too, which is especially positive for someone who hasn’t been the picture of durability during his career. He combined for 44 starts in his first two seasons and has dealt with a laundry list of arm issues over the years, the most serious of which being a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Tanaka has managed to pitch through the UCL tear over the past couple seasons, though teams could be wary of it in free agency.  As such, it’s something Tanaka’s going to have to consider when choosing whether to vacate the remainder of his contract.

Should he opt out, Tanaka figures to reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees before officially reaching free agency, which could also negatively affect his market to some degree.  Still, along with a pair of over-30 hurlers in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, Tanaka would be among the most sought-after starters available. And in a league that has seen starters with more questionable track records (Rich Hill, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, to name a few) rake in sizable paydays in recent winters, it’s reasonable to guess Tanaka will indeed venture to the open market in hopes of outdoing the $67MM he’d make by sticking with his current deal.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Will Masahiro Tanaka opt out after the season?
Yes 52.56% (3,086 votes)
No 47.44% (2,785 votes)
Total Votes: 5,871

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

7 Best Waiver Claims Of The Past Year

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Inspired by a question in a recent chat, I decided to search for the most worthwhile waiver claims placed over the past year. While there are relatively few monumental wins, several players have turned in productive runs with their new organizations since being allowed to depart for nothing but the waiver fee. And many look to carry future value, as well.

Here’s the list of the claims since last August that have provided the most value to their current teams:

  • Blake Parker, RH Reliever, Angels (link): Halos GM Billy Eppler might have made out like a bandit when he poached two righties last October from the Yankees, but the club later lost both pitchers on waiver claims by other organizations. One (see below) ended up succeeding in his new digs, but Eppler got a second chance when he re-claimed Parker. Over 57 2/3 innings on the year, Parker has posted a sterling 2.18 ERA with 11.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 50.4% groundball rate. He sports a robust 14.1% swinging-strike rate and a personal-high 94.0 mph average heater. Parker will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this fall.
  • Kirby Yates, RH Reliever, Padres (link): Yates is the one that got away from the Angels, as he was claimed by the Pads earlier this season after just one ugly appearance for Los Angeles. The 30-year-old has scuffled a bit of late, and has been prone to the long ball, but still carries a palatable 4.09 ERA over 44 frames. More importantly, he has racked up 14.1 K/9, on an outstanding 17.7% whiff rate, against 3.2 BB/9 on the year. Yates looks like a keeper and shouldn’t be terribly expensive when he hits arbitration over the offseason.
  • Scooter Gennett, 2B, Reds (link): The 27-year-old has put on a power outburst since coming over from the Brewers. While he has continued to struggle against left-handed pitching, and doesn’t draw plaudits for his glovework, it’s hard to ignore a .286/.339/.529 batting line and 22 home runs over 389 plate appearances. Gennett has provided quite some value to Cincinnati for his $2.5MM salary, though that’ll head northward in his second season of arb eligibility.
  • Dominic Leone, RH Reliever, Blue Jays (link): Though Leone had enjoyed prior MLB success when he went to Toronto from the D-Backs over the wire, the 25-year-old had largely struggled since his impressive 2014 debut. He has gone on to spin sixty frames of 2.55 ERA ball for the Jays, logging 10.2 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 while carrying a 14.5% swinging-strike rate. Better still, Leone likely won’t qualify for Super Two status next year, leaving the Blue Jays with another season of bargain pitching and three more years of arbitration control.
  • Stephen Vogt, C, Brewers (link): Though an injury has limited the 32-year-old to just 18 games since his mid-season claim, Vogt has absolutely raked in that span. He’s slashing .279/.319/.674 with five home runs as a Brewer, making him an important part of the team’s roster down the stretch. Vogt won’t likely command a big increase on his $2.965MM salary in arbitration this fall — his second-to-last year of eligibility — and so could also represent a useful future asset for Milwaukee.
  • Doug Fister, SP/RP, Red Sox (link): Though he has hardly dominated, Fister has given Boston much-needed innings since being claimed after a brief run in the Angels organization. Over 59 2/3 total frames this year, through nine starts and three relief appearances, he carries a 4.53 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. Nothing jumps off the page there, but league-average results from an affordable swingman are always welcome.
  • George Kontos, RH Reliever, Pirates (link): It would be silly to make too much of the five strong innings Kontos has thrown since arriving recently in Pittsburgh, though he has allowed just one earned run on two hits and a walk while recording seven strikeouts. More importantly, the 32-year-old seems to represent an affordable and useful pen piece for the future. Kontos, who owns a lifetime 3.03 ERA through 320 2/3 frames in the majors, will command a relatively modest bump on his $1.75MM salary next season and can be controlled via arbitration in 2019 as well.

Fandom: The Reason I Do It, Every Day

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This is the third installment from Twins right-hander Trevor May in MLBTR’s Player’s Perspective series. We at MLBTR are fortunate to have him share his thoughts and experiences as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. You can check out his first two posts and also submit questions for an upcoming Mailbag hosted by Trevor: trevormayofficial@gmail.com.

It’s been a hot minute since my last post (writing is hard!), so let’s dive right into entry #3, which covers a topic that unites you (reader) and me (writer), while also providing the very foundation for a cool website like MLB Trade Rumors: Fandom.

Do you remember in my first post when I mentioned that every single situation in life has a silver lining? I not only believe this — I actually spend considerable time in my day-to-day life making sure I seek out, identify and appreciate these silver linings. This rehab process has provided me with a whole bunch of silver linings, the most impactful of which might just be the rediscovery of my own personal fandom for the game of baseball.

There is a perception across the baseball community that a thick, bold line divides players and fans…and that is mostly (and unfortunately) true. That said, while all fans will not have the opportunity to take the Target Field mound in front of 40,000 screaming people, I think it’s important for you guys to know that every single player carries his own unique memories of when he first felt love for this wonderful game. And we all — players, fans, kids, adults alike — still have moments that bring us back to our sacred baseball roots. I had one recently.

Screen goes all wavy, flashback style. “Several weeks ago…” comes into view… then fades.

It really hit me unexpectedly. I was streaming “MLB the Show” on Twitch, a game that, as you can imagine, brings a majority of baseball fans into the channel. I use this time as opportunity to focus discussion around baseball, to make myself available to questions and answer them en masse. It was the day of the Home Run Derby, my teammate Miguel Sano was participating, and I decided that I could extend the stream a little and watch the competition with the viewers.

Man, was it a blast.

In the last few years, I’ve not watched the All-Star festivities much at all. Those four days were for mental and physical rest, a complete removal from baseball. This year, having been benched by Tommy John surgery, I wanted to watch. I wanted to feel excitement, root for my guy, my teammate, as a FAN.

It’s a crazy thing, the difference between rooting as a fan and and rooting as member of the team. It takes you back to the times as a wide-eyed 10-year-old watching Griffey go deep over and over again toward his eventual 1999 Home Run Derby triumph. I even got to interact, in real-time, with a bunch of baseball fans rooting for their own heroes. I had a perspective that I hadn’t had in quite a while.

I have so much gratitude for the opportunities I’ve had, for everything I’ve learned and overcome in my journey from a small town in southwest Washington to the Big Leagues. It’s easy to lose that perspective, especially when baseball has been your job for 10 years. But, as I keep saying, there are always silver linings (I’m probably at the point that this sentence should be tattooed on me somewhere). Surgery has allowed me to see the game through fans’ eyes with clarity once again. I just want to go into the back yard like I used to on those warm summer nights of my youth, and practice my windup. Bottom of the ninth, two outs, perfect game on the line. I cannot wait to get back on that field.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and Twitch for updates on all of that and, of course, for great conversation!

Trevor will be opening up the mailbag for his next post at MLB Trade Rumors.  If you’ve got a question for him, email it to trevormayofficial@gmail.com!

MLBTR Mailbag: Moustakas, CarGo, Jays, Moncada

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Thanks, as always for your questions! Remember, you can also pose your inquiries to our writers during any of three weekly chats: myself on Tuesdays at 2:00pm CST; Jason Martinez on Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST; and Jeff Todd on Thursdays at 2:00pm CST.

Do you think the Mets should go hard after Mike Moustakas in the off season? What kind of an offer could land him? — Mike O.

At this point, as sad as it is to say, I don’t see how the Mets’ front office can head into 2018 under the expectation that they can get any notable contribution out of David Wright. (That’s all the more true after today’s news that Wright’s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced shoulder pain.) Viewed through that lens, Moose makes sense as a somewhat reasonable on-paper target for the Mets, who don’t have an upper-level third base prospect that’s forcing his way into their plans.

The Mets do, however, possess quite a few infield options. Even if they don’t retain Asdrubal Cabrera beyond the current season, the Mets have both T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores as third base options in addition to Wright. I don’t know that spending on a top-of-the-market third baseman is going to be in the cards for a Mets club that perhaps still hopes to get something out of Wright next season and has at least two capable MLB alternatives already on the 40-man roster.

I’d currently peg Moustakas to land a five-year deal worth $90MM this offseason, and that’s a pretty heavy commitment given the current structure of the Mets’ roster. Moose’s on-base issues — he sports a career .305 OBP — may also give Mets GM Sandy Alderson pause.

While the Mets have a long-term need at the hot corner, I’d imagine they’ll be looking at other areas of need first in free agency. The bullpen, perhaps an outfielder (depending on Michael Conforto’s eventual diagnosis), some catching help and even some rotation stability to provide insurance in the wake of this year’s injuries all seem like more pressing needs.

What sort of contract is Carlos Gonzalez likely to get?  Something befitting his newfound mediocrity like 3/15?  Or a 1-year make-good deal for $5M or so?  How much do you think he lost by not agreeing to an extension last offseason? — Allan H.

I can’t see Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras taking multiple years at a low annual rate. A one-year deal is going to be their best bet heading into free agency. Recent examples of former star-caliber players that have had poor seasons and signed one-year pacts have shown that a one-year, $5MM deal may be beneath Gonzalez, though. Carlos Gomez signed a one-year, $11.5MM contract with the Rangers this offseason. A much older Matt Holliday got $13MM on a one-year deal (albeit coming off a better year at the plate).

I’d expect Gonzalez to sign for one year in the $10-14MM range in hopes of cashing in on a rebound season and looking for a much larger payday next winter. He’ll play next year at the age of 32 and would be 33 when seeking his larger contract if all pans out well, but that’s not too old for a corner outfielder to earn a solid contract.

I don’t know what the Rockies were offering him this spring, though I do recall chatting with Jeff Todd at the time and expressing surprise that the Rox were even interested. I’d have capped an offer to CarGo in the Josh Reddick range (four years, $52MM) at the time, and in retrospect, even that looks like it would’ve been a marked overpay.

Kevin Pillar is a great, Gold Glove type defender but has a mid 80’s OPS+. With Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr., and Dalton Pompey ready for MLB time and Pompey and Alford easily center fielders, when does Pillar become expendable (ie our 4th OF) or get traded? — Johnny M.

For starters, I’m not sure where the notion that Pompey is ready for MLB time comes from. Pompey’s OPS in Triple-A last year barely scraped .700, and he’s been limited to 49 plate appearances this season due to injuries. He’s not pushing Pillar for a job anytime in the near future. Hernandez is likely to get a look as a potential everyday corner outfielder in September and next year, and I’d imagine that Alford will be presented with a similar opportunity.

Smith was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft twice and went undrafted both times. He’s put up solid but unremarkable numbers in Triple-A this season — .270/.344/.393 — and is less than two months from his 25th birthday. That doesn’t make him too “old” to be a future contributor by any means, but it’s important to note when gauging his overall ceiling. If any one of Hernandez, Pillar, Alford and Smith is going to be destined for fourth outfielder duties, I’d imagine that it’d be Smith.

Pillar’s bat isn’t great, but he’s one of the best defensive players on the planet. He’s been worth nine to 11 wins above replacement over the past three seasons (depending on your preferred version of the stat) based largely on the strength of that glove. Pillar shouldn’t go anywhere.

Is it too soon to abandon all hope on Yoan Moncada becoming the next Cano? How many perennial all stars struggle this mightily at the MLB level before becoming 3+ annual WAR players? Who is a comparable player with a similar history? — David C.

Moncada is barely 22 years old. It’s not uncommon at all for a player that young to come up and struggle immediately. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 through his first 135 PAs as a rookie. Byron Buxton was labeled as a “bust” by many earlier this season when he opened the season 4-for-49 (and struggling in earlier MLB action), but he’s hitting .276/.336/.455 since April 25 and .333/.370/.657 since the All-Star break. There are dozens of other examples of players that came up and performed extremely poorly early on. If anything, early struggles should be the expectation as opposed to immediate stardom. (We are not worthy, Rhys Hoskins.)

For all of Moncada’s struggles, he’s still getting on base (.328 OBP, 15.5 percent walk rate) and showing some power (three homers, six doubles, a triple, .168 ISO). Strikeouts are probably always going to be an issue for him, but 140 plate appearances of struggles don’t prove he won’t eventually be a quality MLB regular. He won’t ever win a batting title with this level of swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s no reason to give up on him right now.

However, in terms of being “the next Robinson Cano,” it’s best to just get that notion out of your head right now. Moncada was likened to Cano because his swing looks similar and he’s going to play the same position, but Cano is an outstanding contact hitter and has only K’ed at a clip greater than 15 percent in one season. Moncada doesn’t need to be the “next Cano.” Have some patience, let him be himself, and enjoy having his talent.

Knocking Down The Door: Anderson, Gonsalves, Lopez, Maples, Walker

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“Knocking Down the Door” is a regular feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Brian Anderson, 3B, Miami Marlins (Triple-A New Orleans) | Marlins Depth Chart

Brian Anderson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsSince a mid-July promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, the 24-year-old Anderson has been hitting like someone who knows he’s auditioning for a Major League job. In 29 Pacific Coast League games, the right-handed hitting third baseman is slashing .350/.420/.631 with eight home runs and 12 multi-hit games.

Dee Gordon and Martin Prado will presumably be on the trade block this offseason, and the Marlins wouldn’t pull the trigger on dealing either player without knowing if they have a potential in-house replacement (Prado could move to second base if Gordon is traded). If there is a Marlins prospect who is a candidate to step into a starting role in 2018, it would be Anderson, a former third-round draft pick. Calling him up in the near future and giving him 100+ plate appearances would give the Marlins a much better idea of how capable he is of becoming their starting third baseman next season.

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Stephen Gonsalves, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester) | Twins Depth Chart

A shoulder injury that pushed Gonsalves’ season debut to mid-May could be a blessing in disguise for him and the Twins. While most starting pitching prospects are usually close to their innings limit in August and not expected to contribute much at the Major League level in September and beyond, Gonsalves is at 109 2/3 innings after his latest start. Considering that he threw 140 innings during a breakout 2016 in which he appeared very much on the fast track to the Major Leagues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pitching for the playoff-contending Twins late this season.

The 23-year-old lefty was recently promoted to Triple-A following a dominant 28-start stint in Double-A (161 2/3 IP, 2.28 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.3 K/9) over the past two seasons. After posting back-to-back quality starts, Gonsalves struggled in his third Triple-A outing before bouncing back with another stellar effort over the weekend (6 IP, ER, 7 H, BB, 6 K). The Twins are currently in possession of a Wild Card berth with Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee serving as their fourth and fifth starters, respectively. If they’re going to hold on, they might need to turn to their farm system one more time. Gonsalves could be the difference maker.

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Jose Lopez, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola) | Reds Depth Chart

The 23-year-old Lopez is only three months removed from pitching in the High-A Florida State League, but there are already several reasons to believe that he’s not far away from the Majors. After allowing 15 earned runs in his first 27 innings with Double-A Pensacola, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the Minor Leagues. In his last 10 starts, he has a 1.24 ERA with 4.8 H/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. He’s completed at least six innings and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits over that span.

During Lopez’s first crack at the upper minors, he’s shown an ability to make adjustments, miss bats, throw strikes and pitch deep into games—he has a 68.5% strike rate and hasn’t thrown more than 96 pitches in any of his 10 consecutive quality starts. Tyler Mahle, who made this list on May 1st and June 27th, became the 15th Reds’ pitcher to make a start in 2017 when he made his MLB debut yesterday. Lopez deserves to be the 16th.

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Dillon Maples, RP, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa) | Cubs Depth Chart 

The Cubs appeared to solidify what was already a deep and talented bullpen by acquiring lefty Justin Wilson at the trade deadline. Wilson has been mostly ineffective, however, while the team’s other key relievers have been unreliable, to put it kindly, over the past few weeks. It’s not quite a major area of concern at this point, considering the track record of the group, but it’s probably alarming enough to at least take a look at adding a reinforcement from the Minors, even one that began the season in High-A.

Maples’ rise didn’t begin immediately after the team converted him to a reliever a few years back. His numbers out of the ’pen were unimpressive in 46 appearances in the low minors from 2015-16, but something has apparently clicked in 2017. In 51 appearances across three levels, including his last 16 with Triple-A Iowa, the 25-year-old has a 2.74 ERA, 6.2 H/9 and 14.3 K/9. The walks are a concern (5.3 BB/9), but he’s only walked more than one batter in three of his combined 30 appearances in the upper minors. It’s also worth noting that Carl Edwards Jr. had a 6.0 BB/9 in 24 Triple-A appearances last season but went on to finish the year as one of the best relievers on the World Series champs.

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Christian Walker, 1B/LF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno) | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Walker’s already difficult path to the Majors could not have taken a worse turn during the past offseason. With limited at-bats available in Baltimore behind Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, the right-handed hitting first baseman was designated for assignment in February. The likelihood of a better opportunity lied ahead. But it never came. By the time the regular season started, he had been claimed on waivers by three different teams—Braves, Reds and Diamondbacks—that employed superstar first basemen who rarely miss a game. In late March, he was designated for assignment a fourth time, only to clear waivers and remain with the Diamondbacks.

To his credit, the 26-year-old did not let the limited opportunity and removal from the 40-man roster affect him at the plate. After putting up what would be slightly below-average numbers for a first baseman in Triple-A during parts of the previous three seasons, Walker has taken his game to another level in 2017. In 565 plate appearances, he’s been the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A version of Paul Goldschmidt, slashing .312/.384/.609 with 32 homers and 34 doubles. While the Pacific Coast League is more hitter-friendly than the International League, where Walker played previously, his improved walk and strikeout rates (145 BB, 406 K from ’14-16; 58 BB, 97 K in ’17) are indications that a better approach at the plate has helped lead to his success.

A September call-up is in the cards as the D-backs have gotten very little from their pinch-hitters in ’17 (.636 OPS), but they’d also do Walker a huge favor by either trading him in the offseason to a team where he has a chance to play or removing him from the 40-man roster—assuming he’s added in September—so he can opt for free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top 5 AL MVP Candidates

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At the All-Star break in mid-July, the American League MVP looked as if it would belong to Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge at season’s end. The hulking rookie laid waste to opposing pitchers over the season’s initial three-plus months, slashing an astounding .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs and an absurd .362 ISO in 366 plate appearances. He then completed a storybook first half with an awe-inspiring showing at the home run derby. But in Yankees terms, the strikeout-prone Judge has been more Maas than Ruth in the second half, having batted an unimpressive .176/.333/.345 with seven homers and a nearly 200-point ISO decline (.169) in 147 trips to the plate. Both Judge’s Jekyll-and-Hyde routine and sustained excellence from other first-half stars have combined to make the AL MVP race a compelling one as the 2017 season nears its conclusion. The front-runners are…

5.) Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees: As wretched as Judge’s production has been over the past month-plus, the Yankees and their fans certainly would have signed up for his cumulative output entering the season. An AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in, Judge leads his league in homers (37) and ranks second among qualified hitters in fWAR (5.8), wRC+ (160) and ISO (.300). So, while the second half has been one to forget for Judge, he’s still on the short list of premier players in the AL this year. However, barring a 180-degree turn in September, the negative impression he has left since mid-July is going to weigh on voters’ minds and all but take him out of the running to earn the MVP in his first full season.

4.) Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: Not only is the MVP a difficult award for pitchers to win, but Kluber only ranks 28th in the AL in starts (22). The right-hander is behind the 8-ball for multiple reasons, then, though it’s hard to argue he hasn’t been one of the elite players in the league this season. The 2014 Cy Young winner leads AL starters in rWAR (5.7) and places second in fWAR (5.3), thanks largely to a league-best 2.65 ERA. Kluber’s run prevention is mostly the product of incredible strikeout and walk rates (12.26 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9) that each rank second in the AL. He’s also averaging nearly seven innings per appearance (152 2/3 frames overall) and has produced 16 quality starts.

3.) Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: If not for Sale, Kluber would be in the lead for another Cy Young and would be the AL pitcher with the most realistic chance of taking home the MVP this year. But Sale, formerly with the long-struggling White Sox, has carried his track record of superstardom to the contending Red Sox this year and should finally pick up some hardware for his efforts. While the left-handed Sale is second to Kluber in ERA (2.88) and rWAR (5.1) among AL starters, he has a massive fWAR lead (7.4, which also tops all hitters), has tossed nearly 26 more innings (178 1/3, which is first in the AL) and has the league’s No. 1 strikeout and walk rates (12.77 K/9, 1.77 BB/9). Kluber’s Indians teed off on Sale last week, but that three-frame, six-earned run outing was only the sixth time out of 26 that the Boston ace hasn’t recorded a quality start this season.

2.) Mike Trout, CF, Angels: Trout missed all of June and the first week of July with a thumb injury, which is the type of lengthy absence that would’ve been ruinous to nearly all players’ MVP hopes. But there’s nothing typical about the 26-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest performers in the history of the sport and someone who arguably deserved the MVP in each of his first five seasons. Trout “only” has two MVPs to his name, though, and odds are that the voters won’t be able to overlook the time he missed when choosing a winner this season. That’s unfortunate, because even though he’s tied for 86th among AL hitters in PAs (385), he trails just two position players in fWAR (5.6) and has a realistic chance to finish first in that category at season’s end. A magnificent .318/.452/.646 line, to go with 26 homers and 15 stolen bases, has kept Trout in MVP contention and helped give the Angels a shot at their second playoff berth of his career.

Jose Altuve1.) Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros: The diminutive Altuve is the anti-Judge in terms of size and in-season consistency. After hitting .347/.417/.551 in the first half, when the 5-foot-6, 165-pounder lagged a bit behind the 6-7, 275-pound Judge in the MVP race, Altuve has slashed an even better .370/.410/.578 since mid-July. Today’s Altuve has opposing pitchers longing for the early career version who packed little punch at the plate and was really only a threat because of his speed.

These days, not only does Altuve continue to terrorize hurlers when he gets on base (29 steals), but he’s obliterating his competition in the AL batting title race. Altuve has posted a .356 mark that’s 36 points above second place, and he leads qualified hitters in OBP (.415). The formerly powerless Altuve also slugged his 20th homer Sunday, contributing to the AL’s fourth-ranked slugging percentage (.565) and a more-than-respectable .209 ISO. All of that adds up to 6.0 fWAR and could lead to top AL honors for the five-time All-Star. Not bad for a once-overlooked Venezuelan prospect who joined the Astros on a $15K bonus 10 years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the original content published over the last seven days here at MLBTR.

Top 5 NL MVP Candidates

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The 91-37 Dodgers are miles above the competition in the National League and have some of the game’s top players, including Rookie of the Year-to-be Cody Bellinger and 2016 ROY Corey Seager, but the MVP seems unlikely to come from their roster this season. While Bellinger, Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and the injured Clayton Kershaw are among many Dodgers who have had brilliant 2017s, a slew of MVP-caliber performers from other teams may overshadow LA’s best when voting comes at season’s end. Those Dodgers (primarily Seager), two Nationals (right fielder Bryce Harper and ace Max Scherzer) and Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant are among the most notable exclusions in this particular ranking and their absences will understandably cause some disagreements.

In Harper’s case, he may well have been on track to earn his second MVP this year before he went on the shelf two weeks ago with a “significant” bone bruise – one that will keep him out for a while longer, it seems. Bryant, the reigning MVP, is having another tremendous campaign, but the abundance of great individual seasons occurring in the NL this year works against him here. He’s certainly one of many legitimate candidates, and it’s currently difficult to find a single player who clearly stands above the rest or even put together a short list of those who deserve the award the most. But here goes…

5.) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: The rebuilding Reds are toward the bottom of the standings, so Votto isn’t going to win an award that many believe should only go to players on teams relevant to the playoff race. However, if MVP is synonymous with “best,” the hitting scholar should draw voters’ attention. The 2010 NL MVP continues to dazzle seven seasons later as a 33-year-old, with a .311/.446/.588 line and 33 homers (the second-most of a potential Hall of Fame career) in 570 plate appearances. No one in baseball has gotten on base at a better clip than Votto or matched his ridiculous K/BB ratio. It’s very rare to find a hitter capable of amassing 39 more unintentional walks than strikeouts (109 to 70), let alone one who does it while increasing his power output (Votto’s .278 ISO is 50 points better than his lifetime number), yet the face of the Reds has somehow pulled it off this season. Votto took five trips to the plate Sunday and drew a walk in each of them. Remarkable.

4.) Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: On a Washington team that has dealt with injuries to some major contributors this year, including Harper and Scherzer, Rendon has gotten by unscathed. The 27-year-old has appeared in 120 of the Nationals’ 128 games and posted a .299/.401/.543 batting line with 22 homers and 68 unintentional walks against 71 strikeouts in 491 PAs. Rendon has combined his offensive excellence with adeptness at the hot corner, having recorded the National League’s ninth-most defensive runs saved (nine) and the league’s second-ranked Ultimate Zone Rating (12.0), en route to the NL’s highest fWAR (5.8). He’s about as good as it gets, then, but still manages to fly under the radar as part of a club with more star power. Consequently, an MVP could be tough to come by for the relatively unheralded Rendon.

3.) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies: Across 547 trips to the plate this season, Arenado has hit .309/.364/.589 with 29 homers. A .953 OPS over that type of sample size always warrants praise, though it carries less weight coming from someone who plays half his games at Coors Field. But Arenado isn’t just some Colorado-inflated wonder, as his .877 OPS away from his home park this season shows. The 26-year-old is also one of the premier defensive players in baseball – he’s first in the NL in DRS (19) – and perhaps the primary reason why the Rockies are headed toward their first playoff berth since 2009. While there’s a case to be made that teammate Charlie Blackmon has outperformed Arenado this year and should be on this list either instead of his fellow Rockie or with him, the center fielder has done the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field (1.275 OPS at home, .799 on the road). Extra credit goes to Arenado as a result.

2.) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt is a Votto-esque producer who’s actually on a playoff contender, which could give voters the best of both worlds. The 29-year-old has put together a marvelous stretch since his first full season in 2013 and earned five All-Star nods, yet he still seems underrated. An MVP award would give Goldschmidt some much-deserved time in the spotlight, and the numbers he has put up this year make him one of the leading possibilities. With 30 homers and 17 steals, Goldschmidt’s headed for his second 30/20 season in the past three years, and he blends his power and speed with the ability to hit for average (.315) and get on base (.425). He’s also a quality defender (11 DRS, 3.1 UZR), albeit not at a premium position. While Goldschmidt’s above-average work in the field is less valuable than, say, Arenado’s, it further demonstrates that his game is loaded with strengths. What do you give the player whose game is near flawless and who’s the principal component of what looks like an October-bound team? The MVP, perhaps.

Giancarlo Stanton

1.) Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins: The main factor working against Stanton’s MVP candidacy is that he plays for a team that probably won’t qualify for the postseason. And yet the Marlins have come from nowhere in recent weeks to climb to three games above .500 and make the NL wild-card race a bit more interesting. They can thank Stanton for that. After taking a backseat to the Yankees’ Aaron Judge over the season’s first half, Stanton has reclaimed his spot as the game’s foremost power hitter, owing in part to an in-season adjustment to his stance.

With 24 home runs across 181 second-half PAs, Stanton has averaged a long ball every seven-plus trips to the plate since the All-Star break, and his overall total (50) paces everyone else in NL by at least 16 (!). The 27-year-old has a very real chance of registering the majors’ first 60-homer season since Barry Bonds smashed a record 73 with the Giants in 2001. And like Bonds, his former hitting coach with the Marlins, Stanton’s not just an all-or-nothing type. Thanks partially to a career-best strikeout rate (23.5 percent, down 6.3 percent from last season), Stanton has posted a personal-high .296 batting average and gotten on base 38.9 percent of the time. He ranks first in the NL in OPS (1.059), wRC+ (167) and ISO (.374), unsurprisingly, and entered Sunday tied for second in fWAR (5.4). Injuries prevented Stanton from reaching his full potential in recent years, but he’s now healthy and showing that he’s an MVP-level player. Baseball’s a lot better off for it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top 20 Trade Candidates: August Edition

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Within hours of last week’s edition of our top August trade candidates, Curtis Granderson (No. 2) was shipped from the Mets to the Dodgers in exchange or a player to be named later (eventually revealed to be hard-throwing Triple-A righty Jacob Rhame). The following day, catcher Rene Rivera went from the Mets to the Cubs via waiver claim after New York simply let the remainder of his contract go to Chicago. And earlier this week, Rajai Davis (No. 8) was traded from Oakland to Boston in exchange for minor league outfielder Rafael Rincones.

[Related: Players that have cleared revocable waivers]

Those swaps, plus the improved play of some clubs versus the deteriorated play of others (e.g. the Pirates) leaves our current rankings looking like this (Note: Asterisk indicates player has reportedly cleared waivers)…

  1. Jed Lowrie, Athletics: With the exception of a power outage in the month of July, Lowrie has been an average or better bat in each month this season (by measure of wRC+). He plays all four infield positions, switch hits, draws walks and is a reasonably tough strikeout. He’s owed $1.3MM through season’s end ($6.5MM base in 2017), plus the $1MM buyout on a 2018 club option. But, Lowrie has played so well that said option looks like an absolute bargain.
  2. Juan Nicasio, Pirates: Nicasio jumps more than any player from last week’s rankings, which perhaps shouldn’t be a total surprise given the poor play of his team. The Bucs are now eight back in the NL Central and 8.5 back of a Wild Card thanks to a 3-7 slump. Nicasio, a free agent at season’s end, owns a pristine 2.95 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, a 45.5 percent grounder rate and a heater that averages 95.4 mph. At $738K through season’s end, he’s a steal.
  3. Brad Ziegler, Marlins: Ziegler still hasn’t allowed a run since returning from the DL on Aug. 1, and he’s still boasting a ground-ball rate of 76.5 percent in that time. He’s only picked up four strikeouts, though his ground-ball rate and just one walk have helped to mitigate the lack of punchouts. If Miami will pay down some of the $10.4MM he’s owed from now through the end of the 2018 season, Ziegler could move.
  4. Zack Cozart, Reds: There’s still no obvious taker for Cozart, but he’s good enough that one could argue a case for the majority of contenders to find a way to make room for him. Cozart is an elite defensive shortstop that is hitting .311/.403/.568, including a .283/.406/.566 line in 64 PAs since coming off the DL earlier this month. It’s possible that he’s already been pulled back off waivers, of course, and the Reds needn’t feel any pressure to deal him from my vantage point; he’s an easy candidate to turn down a qualifying offer, in my eyes, though I’ll admit to being more bullish on that prospect than some of my colleagues at MLBTR.
  5. Brandon Phillips*, Braves: Phillips has cooled since a ridiculous month of April, but he’s hit for average all summer, has demonstrated decent pop at age 36, still only whiffs in 10.9 percent of his PAs and now has a respectable run as a third baseman in his back pocket as well. The Braves are only paying him $1MM this year, making him a cheap bench upgrade at the least.
  6. Craig Stammen, Padres: Stammen probably deserves more love than he’s gotten on these lists, thanks largely to a terrific second half. He’s allowed just two runs since the All-Star break and is now sitting on a 3.55 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 52.9 percent grounder rate. For a player who is owed just $182K through season’s end, those are nice numbers, and Stammen is better than the sixth- or seventh-best reliever on many contenders.
  7. Asdrubal Cabrera*, Mets: New York has found a way to sell off virtually every other veteran on its staff, with Cabrera standing out as the top option remaining. Unfortunately for the Mets, he’s been in an offensive tailspin since the non-waiver deadline, posting an awful .227/.268/.293 batting line over his past 82 plate appearances. At this point, there’s not much of a justification for ranking him ahead of Lowrie or Phillips, as I’ve done on previous iterations of this list.
  8. Steve Pearce, Blue Jays: The Jays have yet to sell off any pieces that could help them in 2018, so this ranking may be aggressive for Pearce. But with Toronto flat-out buried in the AL East and now five back of a Wild Card spot, 2017 is getting bleak. Pearce is mashing at a .295/.374/.543 pace in the second half, making the $7.5MM he’s owed through 2018 look beyond reasonable. Any contender with a first base, corner outfield or DH need would likely love to add Pearce to its starting lineup or, at least, to the bench.
  9. Clayton Richard, Padres: Richard just tossed his first shutout since 2012 two starts ago, and he’s pitched quite well overall since a fluky 10-run bludgeoning skewed his ERA on July 19 (3.54 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 64.2 GB% since). Richard is one of the game’s best ground-ball pitchers, and he’s on pace for a roughly 200-inning season while earning a modest $1.75MM salary ($354K remaining).
  10. Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: His home-road splits are glaring, but they’re heavily skewed by a trio of early starts in which he yielded a staggering 23 runs (to the Dodgers, D-backs and Mets). Since May 28, Chacin has only yielded three or more earned runs on two occasions, and he’s been solid both at and away from Petco Park. He’s not as good as his 3.17 ERA in that time, but Chacin has an average K rate, above-average ground-ball rate and is only owed $354K through season’s end.
  11. Miguel Gonzalez*, White Sox: Gonzalez has allowed only two runs in his past 20 innings, albeit with a 14-to-8 K/BB ratio, a poor 32.2 percent grounder rate and plenty of hard contact allowed. If nothing else, he can serve as a fifth starter or long reliever for a contender next month. Gonzalez is owed $1.2MM through season’s end and shouldn’t come with a high asking price.
  12. Matt Joyce, Athletics: Joyce has gone deep twice since the last iteration of this list and six times this month in just 66 PAs. He has a 117 wRC+ against righties this year with tons of walks helping to offset a pedestrian batting average. He’s an improvement for teams looking for some punch off the bench, though next year’s $6MM salary may be off-putting for some otherwise-interested parties.
  13. Zach Duke, Cardinals: Duke hasn’t fared especially well since his sprint back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s faced 19 lefties and allowed only a pair of singles and three walks. A team seeking a lefty specialist could look to Duke to fill that role. St. Louis isn’t a clear seller, but unlike teammate Lance Lynn, Duke obviously is not a candidate for a qualifying offer after the year. He’s owed $1.1MM through season’s end, and the Cards have several other southpaws in the ’pen.
  14. Kurt Suzuki, Braves: I’ve seen it suggested that Suzuki has benefited greatly from hitter-friendly SunTrust Park in 2017. That may be true, but that thinking ignores the fact that 10 of his 14 homers — his most since 2011 — have some on the road. “Zook” may not have a great defensive rep, but he’s mashed at a .268/.344/.537 pace while earning $1.5MM in 2017. He’s owed $303K of that figure.
  15. R.A. Dickey, Braves: Dickey has gone six or more innings in 11 of his past 12 starts (including a full seven innings six times), though some teams may not relish the notion of telling one of their catchers to learn to catch a knuckleball at this juncture of the season. The upside is fairly low, and the Braves have reportedly considered simply exercising his 2018 option.
  16. Matt Moore, Giants: Somewhere between all of the “What’s wrong with Matt Moore?” and “What should the Giants do with Matt Moore?” questions, the left-hander somewhat quietly decided to show signs of a turnaround. Moore has a 4.09 ERA and 3.98 FIP with 8.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. The Giants aim to contend in 2018, so they may simply be thrilled with the improvements and exercise his affordable $9MM option. But, if they feel now is the time to sell high on a change-of-scenery candidate — well, higher than they could have in June — contenders and non-contenders alike could have interest.
  17. Daniel Hudson, Pirates: Hudson throws very hard and misses bats, but he’s been walk- and homer-prone in 2017. His underwhelming 4.50 ERA is largely supported by fielding-independent alternatives. He’s still owed $1.1MM this year and $5.5MM next year, which complicates matters but also makes him likely to clear waivers (if he hasn’t already).
  18. Derek Holland*, White Sox: Holland had his best start in quite awhile against the Twins yesterday, but his overall lack of production out of the rotation is likely too great for any contending club to count on him as a starter for the season’s final month. The Sox would probably he happy to dump the remainder of his $6MM deal, though (about $1.2MM), and he does have strong numbers against left-handed hitters.
  19. Justin Verlander*, Tigers: Verlander cleared waivers and technically remains available for trade, but despite his excellent run of success and improved control, his massive contract and full no-trade rights make a deal extremely unlikely.
  20. Giancarlo Stanton*, Marlins: If Verlander’s $28MM annual salary from 2018-19 and full no-trade clause are impediments to a deal, then the $295MM that Stanton is owed beyond 2017 and his own no-trade provision are virtually insurmountable. There’d be no greater difference-maker on the market, though, so he takes the final spot on our rankings, as he did last week.

Injured

Scott Feldman (Reds), Daniel Nava (Phillies), Ian Krol (Braves), Johnny Cueto (Giants), Erick Aybar (Padres), Wade LeBlanc & Joaquin Benoit (Pirates)

Also Considered

J.A. Happ & Jose Bautista (Blue Jays); Matt Kemp, Jim Johnson & Nick Markakis (Braves); Lance Lynn & Seung-hwan Oh (Cardinals); Denard Span & Nick Hundley (Giants); A.J. Ellis & Dee Gordon (Marlins); Darren O’Day, Zach Britton Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley & Seth Smith (Orioles); Yangervis Solarte (Padres), Hyun Soo Kim & Freddy Galvis (Phillies); Andrew Cashner & Tyson Ross (Rangers); Drew Storen (Reds); Jose Iglesias (Tigers); James Shields & Mike Pelfrey (White Sox)

What If The Rays Turn Into Late-August Sellers?

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We’re not there yet. After a win tonight, the Rays sit three games under .500 and three games out of Wild Card position. A week from now, the club could easily be in the thick of things. But with the division out of reach, a healthy bunch of teams still to leapfrog just to make the play-in game, and a six-game Missouri road trip on tap, it’s also quite possible that Tampa Bay could find itself all but buried by the end of the month. (After August 31st, of course, players are no longer eligible for the postseason if they change organizations.)

That raises an interesting question: what would it look like if the Rays were to make a late effort at marketing some short-term assets? After all, the club could well see cause to shed salary if it feels its hopes at a postseason berth are dashed.

The organization carried just $70MM of payroll entering the season — a pittance for most teams, but not far from the franchise high. It went on to add a couple of million dollars by acquiring Trevor Plouffe (with part of his salary paid by Oakland), Steve Cishek (offset by Erasmo Ramirez and some cash from Seattle), Sergio Romo, and Dan Jennings. While those acquisitions were largely offset by the $2.35MM or so that was saved when Colby Rasmus left the club, the Rays also took on all of what was then still owed to Adeiny Hechavarria ($4.35MM annual salary) and Lucas Duda ($7.25MM).

When the calendar flips to September, there’ll only be about one-sixth of the regular season left to play, and thus only that portion of remaining salary to pay down. Still, moving a few players — even for marginal or no returns — could add up to a fair amount of savings in relative terms. And some of the possible trade candidates might well recoup some useful talent, too.

With teams like the Twins and Rangers perhaps now pivoting back toward the buy side, and other organizations now having had time to re-think their needs, there may yet be some intriguing opportunities. Though the Rays may have better odds at snagging a Wild Card than the division-rival Orioles and Blue Jays, Tampa Bay also operates under much more stringent budgetary constraints and has more potential August trade chips. The very moves that the Rays have made to push toward contention — mostly, adding useful veterans on short-term deals — have left the team with a bunch of useful assets if a last-minute sell-off is pursued.

Bearing in mind that this is completely hypothetical — and that we don’t know the waiver statuses of these players (excepting Duda, who cleared once) — here are the most interesting players the Rays could plausibly consider dealing at month’s end (with approximate remaining 2017 salary for October in parentheses):

  • Alex Cobb, SP ($700K) — Cobb is a free agent at season’s end and has generally turned in quite a solid year. While he has been knocked around a few times, Cobb currently owns a 3.80 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 147 innings. Rumors of his full return to top-quality pitching may have been exaggerated, but he could certainly shore up some rotations and might even be seen as a potential postseason starter for some clubs. Cobb would surely be a candidate for a waiver claim, but could sneak through or be claimed by a team that would give something up via trade.
  • Jake Odorizzi, SP ($683K) — This seems quite a bit less likely, due both to Odorizzi’s remaining control rights and his struggles thus far (4.74 ERA) in 2017. But perhaps it’s not out of the question that he’d clear waivers.
  • Steve Cishek, RP (~$500K, factoring portion paid by Mariners) — The sidearmer has a clean sheet through 11 frames with Tampa Bay, allowing just four hits and three walks while racking up a dozen strikeouts. He’d make for a hot commodity on a market starved of relief pitching.
  • Sergio Romo, RP ($500K) — Romo, too, has been quite good since finding a new home. In his 15 innings with the Rays, he carries a 12:1 K/BB ratio and 2.40 ERA. The veteran hurler is also battle-tested in the postseason.
  • Tommy Hunter, RP ($233K) — If it’s reasonably likely that both Cishek and Romo would be claimed, it’s a certainty that Hunter would (if he hasn’t already). But there’s leverage to work with given Hunter’s outstanding season. The veteran has set himself up nicely for a return to the open market after 46 innings of 2.35 ERA ball, with 9.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 on the back of a 97 mph heater. Brad Boxberger is perhaps also a marginally plausible candidate, but we won’t consider him separately here with two more seasons of affordable arb control remaining.
  • Lucas Duda, 1B ($1.2MM) — Though he has been in a cold spell of late, Duda owns a 127 OPS+ during his 24 games with Tampa Bay, which actually just tops his overall performance earlier this year with the Mets. The Yankees were reportedly finalists for him previously, and a few other clubs might not mind adding a big left-handed bat.
  • Logan Morrison, 1B ($417K) — Speaking of big lefty bats, Morrison could hold yet more appeal with his lesser salary. He, too, has cooled but sports a .240/.347/.496 slash on the year with 29 home runs. While it’s reasonable to anticipate he’d be claimed, as with some other players, the Rays could potentially still extract a return and simply hold onto him if nothing much is offered.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($725K) — Hech doesn’t seem particularly likely to be dealt. He has struggled at the plate since coming to the Rays, the market hasn’t yet found a home for a better player in Zack Cozart, and Tampa Bay could intend to tender him arbitration this fall. Still, he’s at least worthy of mention.
  • Brad Miller, INF ($595K) — It has been quite a disappointing season for Miller, as he has fallen off of the twenty-home-run output he showed in each of the past two seasons and owns a miserly .187 batting average. But he has suddenly blossomed into one of the game’s most patient hitters, with a 17.5% walk rate, and could be an interesting buy-low candidate for some organizations. With two more years of arb control left to go, Tampa Bay would likely only be looking to make a move if they are preparing to move on from Miller anyway or unexpectedly draw a big offer for his services.
  • Wilson Ramos, C ($667K) — As with Hechavarria, Ramos would likely clear waivers — particularly with incentives boosting his deal and $8.5MM still owed for 2018. The 30-year-old is still working out the kinks since returning from knee surgery, with a .258/.294/.406 slash through 139 plate appearances, but still comes with quite a bit of upside.
  • Peter Bourjos, OF ($225K) — There’s little chance that Bourjos will be a hotly pursued commodity, as he’s hitting just .229/.275/.403 on the year — with that surprising bump in pop offset by a failure to reach base that’s driven by poor plate discipline (5.2% walk rate, 27.3% strikeout rate). But he could function as an extra outfielder and pinch runner for another organization.
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