MLBTR Originals

Poll: Should The Reds Give Zack Cozart A Qualifying Offer?

By Steve Adams | September 11, 2017 at 10:29am CDT

An ill-timed injury that landed Zack Cozart on the disabled list from July 26 through Aug. 6 may have prevented the Reds from trading their shortstop prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The Reds placed Cozart on revocable trade waivers last month and reportedly pulled him back after the claiming team placed the claim more to block other contenders from acquiring Cozart than to work out a trade themselves.

That effectively eliminated the possibility of the Reds trading Cozart at all, leaving general manager Dick Williams and his staff with somewhat of a dilemma. Cozart has played at star level on a per-game basis over the past three seasons — never more so than in 2017 — but has also dealt with injuries in each of those three seasons. The rebuilding Reds, then, are faced with the choice of either letting one of their best players walk as a free agent with no compensation or making a one-year qualifying offer that is reported to be in the $18.1MM range, which would net them draft pick compensation. There’s an argument to be made in favor of either decision.

Those that feel a qualifying offer is too great a risk have an understandable vantage point. Cozart is 32 years old and, assuming he remains healthy through season’s end, will have averaged about 100 games per year over the past three seasons. In that time, he’s been sidelined by a torn ACL, some knee troubles in 2016 and quadriceps issues in 2017. There will also likely be clubs that wonder if this year’s offensive breakout is sustainable; while he’d shown much-improved power in both 2015 and 2016, Cozart’s offensive output has never approached his 2017 levels in the past.

There’s also a lack of contending clubs or expected contenders with clear-cut shortstop needs this offseason, creating the potential for the same limited market the Reds found when seeking trade partners in both 2016 and 2017. And, Cozart has only earned about $12MM in his career, so the prospect of increasing his career earnings by 150 percent in a single season will make it tempting to accept — especially since the new CBA prohibits the team from making a second QO the following offseason.

On the other hand, a one-year deal for Cozart at $18.1MM isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. He’s been worth considerably more than that this season even with his injuries, thanks to his perennially elite defense and his career-best .304/.397/.549 batting line. Cozart’s offensive improvement doesn’t appear to be due entirely to BABIP luck, either. He’s more than doubled his career walk rate (6.4 percent career, 13 percent in 2017), his strikeout rate remains strong (15 percent — well below the league average) and his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate is largely a continuation of last year’s solid pace.

Like many others throughout the league, Cozart has increased his fly-ball rate a bit, and he’s also benefited from a not-outlandish uptick in his 2015-16 homer-to-flyball ratio. The Reds can probably expect some degree of regression in his career-high .324 BABIP, but even a return to his career level of .281 would render the new, ultra-patient and more powerful version of Cozart a decidedly above-average bat. Cozart will enter this offseason as a markedly better offensive producer than J.J. Hardy was when he signed a three-year, $40MM deal to remain with the Orioles at the same age.

There may not be a lengthy list of teams eyeing shortstop upgrades, but there are plenty of clubs that could work Cozart into the mix. The Cardinals could deploy Paul DeJong at third base and play Cozart at shortstop. The D-backs have some uncertainty and were often a speculative Cozart suitor this summer, though they do have Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed both controllable beyond the current campaign. The Padres aren’t contending but have long been seeking stability at shortstop, while the Royals will be on the lookout for an Alcides Escobar replacement. Trevor Story has taken a step back in Colorado. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis have injury concerns in Toronto. And, as ever, offseason trades and injuries, will alter every free agent’s market.

Were Cozart to accept, the Reds wouldn’t be able to trade him without his consent until mid-June of 2018. However, he could also once again command interest at the 2018 non-waiver deadline, particularly if he maintains his breakout and the Reds show some willingness to pay any of the contract. (Cincinnati did pay the bulk of Brandon Phillips’ contract this past offseason, and Cozart’s deal almost certainly wouldn’t require the Reds to pay such a significant portion, even at $18.1MM.)

All of that said, I’ll open this up for public input (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Should the Reds give Zack Cozart a qualifying offer?

Yes 54.26% (2,389 votes)

No 45.74% (2,014 votes)

Total Votes: 4,403

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Needs: Pittsburgh Pirates

By charliewilmoth | September 10, 2017 at 5:38pm CDT

With less than a month remaining in the regular season, many teams still have plenty of fall drama ahead. Many clubs, though, are already looking to 2018. With that in mind, here’s the latest entry in our Three Needs series. You can track other entries in the series here.

For a team currently in the midst of a 67-76 season in which nearly everything went wrong, the Pirates have surprisingly few pronounced holes. That isn’t to say that it will be impossible for them to find ways to improve, only that they have reasonable possibilities in place for 2018 at most key roster spots. A player like Jordy Mercer is representative of the Pirates’ situation right now — he’s in the midst of a decent .254/.328/.404 season and is clearly a capable starting shortstop, but he’s also only notched two wins above replacement once in his career. A team with the resources and/or inclination to aggressively pursue upgrades over the reasonable, established assets they already have might look to add a starting shortstop, but it doesn’t seem especially likely the Pirates will. The Bucs also already did address what might otherwise have been a key offseason priority with their in-season trade to reacquire Sean Rodriguez, which bolstered the infield depth they lost due to Jung Ho Kang’s visa issues.

With that in mind, here are some areas the Bucs might address over the winter. A variety of somewhat dramatic approaches would seem defensible for the Pirates over the next few months, and with a number of key veterans potentially nearing the ends of their careers in Pittsburgh, the Bucs will have to at least consider some of them. If they do take dramatic action, though, they appear likely to do so by trading high-value veterans rather than adding them, although they could also pursue somewhat of a mixed strategy, dealing away some veteran salaries in order to bolster a decent base of young talent with veteran free agents.

[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

1. Figure out what to do with Andrew McCutchen. In what’s become a semiannual tradition for the Pirates, they’ll attempt this offseason to chart a course for Andrew McCutchen, on whom they have a $14.5MM option or a $1M buyout in his last winter before free agency. McCutchen has posted a .583 OPS in August and .536 in September, but two very hot months this June and July should ease fears of a steep decline following a poor 2016 season. This time, of course, the Pirates can only offer suitors one season of McCutchen, but from the Bucs’ perspective, at least they can offer a McCutchen whose .273/.363/.467 line and improved defensive work look like significant upgrades on the McCutchen they had on offer last winter. The Pirates nearly traded Cutch to the Nationals then, and it seems very likely they’ll strongly consider trading McCutchen for young talent this winter, too.

2. If McCutchen goes, figure out what happens next. The Pirates are already pretty far removed from the Bucs teams that made three straight playoff appearances from 2013 through 2015, but dealing a franchise player like McCutchen would sever ties with the past even more decisively. Actually, whether the Bucs deal McCutchen or not, they need to develop a plan (or, more likely, continue implementing a plan that understandably hasn’t completely been publicly articulated) that’s designed to get them back to the playoffs at some point in the future. Neither of their last two teams have been good enough, and it’s not yet clear that the next wave of young assets (including Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Glasnow and Felipe Rivero) form a good enough core by themselves to return the team to glory, even though all of them are clearly useful or at least have the potential to be. With all that in mind, the possibility of a McCutchen trade raises obvious questions about other veterans the Pirates might trade, including Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison. Other names, like those of David Freese and Francisco Cervelli, could be bandied about as well.

The Pirates can control Cole for two more years, and with his pedigree, stuff, and performance, he’d undoubtedly yield plenty of talent coming back. The Bucs might not be able to top the fine returns the Athletics and White Sox received in dealing controllable veteran starters Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, respectively, but they’d be able to point to those trades as potential starting points.

Harrison’s season is now over due to a broken finger, but he could be on the market this winter as well. After a solid .272/.339/.432 2017 campaign, he’s pretty clearly an asset, particularly given the structure of what remains on his contract — he’ll make a modest $10MM in 2018, and the team that controls him will also have relatively cheap options for both 2019 and 2020. That makes Harrison a very low risk for any team that might acquire him. The fact that he’s capable at both second and third could also create a variety of potential fits.

Any big trades the Pirates do make will create other potential decisions that could shape their winter. After Meadows’ injury-plagued season, the Bucs probably won’t be comfortable with having him replace McCutchen right away, which might mean they’ll look for outfield depth if they trade McCutchen. The same could be true of the infield should Harrison be traded. The Pirates would also have to determine how much space, if any, they want to carve out for interesting but lesser-known young players like outfielder Jordan Luplow and infielder Max Moroff. (From there, the Pirates can sort out the composition of their bench, perhaps adding a left-handed bat to replace free agent John Jaso.) If the Bucs were to trade Cole, they’d have a variety of young options to take his place, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they looked for a veteran starter to provide stability.

3. Look for bullpen help. The Bucs’ recent trade of Tony Watson and their bizarre loss of Juan Nicasio on waivers have left their relief corps a bit thin. (Of course, both players would have been eligible for free agency after the season anyway.) The team recently made one significant move to improve the 2018 bullpen by claiming George Kontos from the Giants, but they’ll likely make one or two more this winter to add to a group currently headed by Rivero and Daniel Hudson. Like many teams, the Bucs have young or young-ish arms that could play bigger roles in next season’s ’pen, like Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas. The Bucs’ bullpen does, however, currently appear short on both veteran stability and overall talent. A buy-low move or two like the one that landed Hudson last winter wouldn’t be a surprise.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | September 10, 2017 at 10:13am CDT

Here’s the recap of all the original content from the past week at MLB Trade Rumors…

MLBTR launched the “Three Needs” series, detailing three pressing offseason needs for teams that have a lot of work ahead of them this winter in the wake of disappointing 2017 seasons. The Giants were the first team featured, as Steve Adams highlighted San Francisco’s need for upgrades in the outfield, third base and in the middle of the rotation.
Twins right-hander Trevor May took over a special edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, answering reader questions about his Tommy John rehab, how players deal with trades, and several other topics.
Veteran righty Tim Dillard returns with his latest Inner Monologue, sharing some insight into the Triple-A playoffs, introducing the PONAR statistic and introducing new ways to befriend strangers on a plane.
Andrew Cashner has posted some good results for the Rangers this season, though his lack of strikeouts and injury history are question marks for teams that may look into signing the right-hander as a free agent this winter. Jeff Todd explores Cashner’s pros, cons, comparables and potential market in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece.
September isn’t usually a big month for contract extensions, though Jeff Todd lists several notable players from the last six years who have inked significant new contracts just weeks before hitting free agency.
Giancarlo Stanton hit his 54th home run of the season last night, inspiring Connor Byrne to ask MLBTR readers how many homers they think the Marlins slugger will post before the year is out. Over 55% percent of respondents feel Stanton will finish with between 61-64 dingers.

MLBTR Poll: Giancarlo Stanton’s 2017 HR Total

By Connor Byrne | September 9, 2017 at 10:18pm CDT

Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton continued marching toward the 60-home run mark on Saturday when he slugged his 54th long ball of the year, a 456-foot shot off Braves left-hander Max Fried. While the 68-74 Marlins lost the game and have dropped 11 of their past 13 to plummet from playoff contention, Stanton still seems likely to garner serious NL MVP consideration even if he doesn’t reach 60. The 27-year-old currently leads every other NL player by at least 17 homers, after all, and has slashed an incredible .282/.377/.646 in 604 plate appearances.

The excellence Stanton has exhibited could be difficult for MVP voters to ignore, particularly if he does reach the celebrated 60 figure by season’s end. In doing so, the 27-year-old would follow Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Maris and Babe Ruth as the sixth player to accomplish the feat (McGwire and Sosa each did it multiple times) and the first since 2001. That was the year Bonds smashed a record 73. Remarkably, Stanton may have outdone his former hitting coach had he been as otherworldly in the season’s first half as he has been since the All-Star break.

While Stanton racked up a “mere” 26 long balls in 369 PAs between Opening Day and mid-July, he’s already at 28 through 235 attempts over the nearly two months since the Yankees’ Aaron Judge upstaged him at the Home Run Derby on Stanton’s turf in Miami. Stanton has gone yard every 8.39 trips to the plate in the second half, which would translate to 83 over a 700-PA season (Stanton’s on track for 698). Should Stanton continue to stay healthy and hammer HRs at his second-half pace, he’d finish the year with around 65 – a number only Bonds, McGwire (twice) and Sosa (twice) have matched or exceeded.

As superb as Stanton has been, it goes without saying that it will be immensely difficult for him to keep raking at his current clip over the Marlins’ final 20 games of the season. But both the slate of mostly unspectacular starting pitchers scheduled to face Stanton over the next couple weeks and the Marlins’ three-game set at Colorado’s Coors Field thereafter should aid him in his quest to go deep at least six more times this year. Clearly, Stanton’s on the verge of posting one of the most awe-inspiring offensive seasons in the history of the sport. The question is: Will he pull it off?

How many HRs will Giancarlo Stanton finish with this year?

Between 61 and 64 54.89% (3,261 votes)

Fewer than 60 21.44% (1,274 votes)

60 16.07% (955 votes)

65 or more 7.59% (451 votes)

Total Votes: 5,941

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Needs: San Francisco Giants

By Steve Adams | September 8, 2017 at 4:13pm CDT

With just over three weeks remaining in the season, much of the focus in baseball is on the American League Wild Card race, historic winning streaks from the D-backs and Indians, and Giancarlo Stanton’s pursuit of 60 home runs. Fans and executives for a number of teams, though, are already beginning to look toward the future as they seek ways to remedy disappointing 2017 seasons that won’t result in a playoff berth.

With that in mind, MLBTR is re-launching its yearly Three Needs series, in which we’ll take a high-level look at a trio of pressing areas that need to be addressed on non-contenders with the offseason looming. We’ll take considerably deeper dives into each team’s flaws and possible avenues to improvement in our annual Offseason Outlook series, beginning next month, but this series will get the ball rolling for offseason content here at MLBTR.

In arbitrary fashion, the Giants are first up in 2017. With a 55-87 record, they need to go 8-12 down the stretch to avoid their first 100-loss season since 1985 and just the second season of triple-digit losses in the storied history of their franchise.

1. Outfield improvements, both on defense and offense. Much has been made of the Giants’ lack of power, particularly in the outfield. They’ve already been linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but the Giants need more than a power upgrade in the outfield. (Moreover, gutting an already thin farm and taking on a significant portion of Stanton’s contract doesn’t seem especially prudent anyhow.)

San Francisco ranks dead last in the Majors in outfield Defensive Runs Saved, and they’re a bottom-three team in Ultimate Zone Rating as well. Denard Span shouldn’t be playing center field anymore, but he’s been at least a league-average hitter. If the Giants can find a way to trade him and/or Hunter Pence, it could go a long ways toward improving the 2018 roster by creating space for younger options and freeing up resources for free agency and trades.

That’s a tall order, though, and the Giants could be better off simply sliding Span into left field and pursuing a center fielder that can excel defensively while providing some offense. Lorenzo Cain will be a free agent that, at 32 years of age, won’t break the bank in terms of contract length. Adding another aging outfielder to the mix might not pay off in the long run, but the Giants are aiming to compete next season. One alternative would be paying down some of Span’s contract to flip him to a team with a left field need, then giving Austin Slater an earnest look in left field and perhaps adding a more cost-effective center field option. Jarrod Dyson would bring elite glovework into the fold, though he’d only exacerbate the team’s lack of power and would need to be paired with a right-handed-hitting platoon partner.

2. A dependable mid-rotation starter. Giants fans may perceive the bullpen to the bigger need — and it’s a need, to be sure — but the rotation as currently constituted has far too many question marks and not much in terms of readily apparent reinforcement options. Assuming Matt Moore’s improvements in the second half are enough for his option to be exercised, the Giants will deploy a rotation consisting of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto (whose injury all but rules out an opt-out), Jeff Samardzija and Moore. Candidates for the remaining slot include Ty Blach, who has the worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates in MLB, and 27-year-old Chris Stratton, who struggled in Triple-A this year and has walked 23 batters in 45 1/3 MLB frames. Prospect Tyler Beede could eventually surface as an option, but he didn’t perform especially well in Triple-A and missed the final chunk of the season with a back injury. More time in Triple-A could benefit him while buying the Giants some extra club control.

The free-agent market will be fronted by Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and possibly Masahiro Tanaka. The Giants may not be keen on spending at those levels with a number of other notable players on the wrong side of 30 still under contract, but the middle tier of arms has some solid names as well. Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Marco Estrada and Tyler Chatwood (who has been successful outside of Coors Field in his career) will all be on the open market, among others. As always, the trade market will feature myriad names that could step into the middle of the mix in San Francisco.

3. Infield depth, with a focus on third base. The Giants entered the year with Eduardo Nunez at third base, while Conor Gillaspie and Aaron Hill served as utility options. Korean star Jae-gyun Hwang headed to Triple-A with the hope that he could emerge as an option down the line. None of those players are with the organization anymore, leaving the re-signed Pablo Sandoval (who is in an 0-for-38 slump) and prospects Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo as options at the hot corner. Neither Arroyo nor Jones has hit in the Majors yet. While both could emerge as long-term pieces eventually — Arroyo, in particular, has long been regarded as a quality prospect — neither has yet shown himself ready to handle regular duties for a (would-be) contender.

The Giants’ bench, too, is lacking in the way of infield depth. Kelby Tomlinson’s strikeout rate is a career-high 21.4 percent, and he hasn’t homered since 2015. Adding a player in the Jed Lowrie mold makes a good bit of sense for San Francisco. If Arroyo steps up and claims the third base role, a player of Lowrie’s skill set could easily slide into a utility role, potentially allowing him to spell Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford on occasion. (Panik has missed significant time with injuries in recent years, it’s also worth noting.) One option could be to re-sign Nunez, who enjoyed his time with the Giants and has said he’d be open to a return in free agency.

MLBTR Mailbag With Guest Host Trevor May

By Trevor May | September 8, 2017 at 12:14pm CDT

A quick editor’s note: Thanks once again to Twins right-hander Trevor May for taking some time away from his Tommy John rehab schedule to host an edition of the MLBTR Mailbag as his latest entry in our Players’ Perspective series. Be sure to read each of Trevor’s three previous installments as well!

—

Thank you to everyone that sent over their questions. I had a really great time answering them all!

From Othar Z.:

What did it feel like when you learned that you were going to have Tommy John surgery?

Well, it felt bad. For a few big reasons.

You lose an entire year of your career. I was, and still am, at a point in my career that it’s important for me to prove that I’m here to stay. You can’t do that if you’re not pitching.
I had lost half of 2016 to a nagging injury that I couldn’t fully figure out until right at the end of the season. I spend 4 months in the winter working my butt off to get my back feeling good again, achieved that, only to get knocked down again with Tommy John. It’s like pulling yourself out of quicksand only to get slapped right back in.
I want to play. Not playing sucks infinitely more than playing.

But, my overarching theme: silver-linings. I get a year to get my body into amazing condition. I get to pursue some business interests that I might not of been able to during 162 games. I also get to spend a whole year with my new wife, something we haven’t been able to do once in our entire relationship. In essence, I plan to be better after this storm is over.

From Samuel S.:

Reflecting on the Ben Revere trade in 2012, when you were traded away as a prospect earning a minor league salary, how difficult was the transition process, on both a personal and professional level?

For me, not actually as difficult as you think. I was traded smack dab in the middle of the offseason, for one, so I had a ton of time to prepare for the next year. I hadn’t lined up housing for Spring Training yet, there was time to pack up and move, etc. I’m sure if it were during the season, the logistics alone would be a pain. Also, I was still going to be in Florida for Spring Training (both the Phillies and Twins are in the Grapefruit League). That kept some familiarity.

The biggest thing is learning and getting to know your new staff and teammates, the organization and the overall feel. It takes getting used to. BUT, if you’re traded somewhere, you know they really wanted you for some reason. It gives you a little boost going into your first competition with a new team.

Also, I had kind of seen it coming. The Phillies had made a trade every offseason I had been with them. I had been mentioned in just about every one of them. Just kind of did the math.

From Judy K.:

Do you think pitchers are being babied by most MLB organizations with all the pitch counts and innings limits?

This is a classic “better safe than sorry” situation. Like I said previously, Tommy John (and any shoulder surgery really) can take years away from a player and the organization that invested in them. As the science improves and causes get clearer and clearer, limits are going to become more prevalent. I think any decision that results in longevity for a pitcher is a good one. That said, I also just want the ball. This is an interesting question for me, because I’m about to be one of those guys next year.

In short, I really think it’s case by case, but acknowledging that you should be patient when increasing workload or coming back from an injury is important.

From Omar J.:

What are the Angels going to do to improve their offense, this year and next?

Unfortunately, I am not a member of the Angels or their front office, so I can’t really speak to their plans. I do know they have Mike Trout, who I hear is super good. Like, 99 on The Show good.

From Weston R.:

What was it like being traded and do you have any advice for players being a part of trade rumors?

Think of it as moving to a new school. New opportunities, clean slate. The team that trades for you wants you.

What was your favorite part of being a minor leaguer?

My favorite part of being a minor leaguer….. hmmm. Maybe the constant availability of peanut butter and jelly? Varying shower water pressure/temperature? No. Honestly, seeing parts of the country you wouldn’t be able to see otherwise is something I’m grateful for. Also, just learning to play ball and how to take one day at a time. You grow up quick in the minor leagues.

Also a random Washington question, have you ever been to Fatty Patty’s in Vancouver, Washington?

No, I haven’t, but I will check it out. My hometown in 30 minutes north of Vancouver.

From Mark M.:

Do you consider yourself to be the best pitcher the Twins have? If not, why the lack of confidence?

I like that, haha. No. You can’t be the best if you’re hurt. Also, I’m a guy that will always think that I haven’t done anything yet. I’ll always put someone ahead of me so I have something to chase.

From Dylan G.:

How impressed are you with the recently returned Glen Perkins after undergoing two major shoulder surgeries and having been out since early 2016?

Glen and I were on team rehab for quite a while together. It’s always good to see one of us graduate. He’s done the work and get himself to a place where he can compete everyday. Not everyone returns from that type of surgery. So yes, I am very impressed and happy for him. Can’t wait to be on that field with him.

From Andrew F.:

Who would you say is the toughest hitter you ever faced that most people wouldn’t expect would be so difficult?

It’s the Big Leagues, so there aren’t any proverbial “easy outs.” For me, I answer this question based on length of at bats. Robbie Grossman is one of these guys. Really great feel for the strike zone, bat is in the zone for a long time and uses the whole field. I need a hitter to chase to some extent. Robbie doesn’t really do that. So, we have 10 pitch at-bats almost every time. Fun fact: he’s my first Major League strikeout, looking. (From Robbie: “Yeah, and it was a ball.”)

From Sam H.:

I am wondering if players and coaches get annoyed by fans yelling down to them in the bullpen at Target Field? Also if I tied a string to a ball with a pen to have a player sign it would I get kicked out??

If you’re heckling, absolutely. If you’re saying hello or cheering, we’re cool with it. It’s just a case by case thing, and it really depends on the person. Myself personally, I’m OK with some positive feedback!

If you came in with a string and pen you probably would not get kicked out, no. I cannot guarantee that it will be signed though.

From Laurel T.:

Do you guys ever play the carnival throwing games, and are you 100% guaranteed a prize because of your ability?

I really cannot remember the last time I played one of those games, but we do have a better chance than most probably. 100%? No. Better than most? Yes.

Speaking of the “unwritten rules”—if you are the pitcher and everyone knows that a batter is going to be hit for retribution of an earlier misdeed, is it really difficult to intentionally hit someone with a pitch? Not skills-wise, but emotionally? It seems like that would be hard.

It probably isn’t easy, but I can’t really speak to the situation.

Do you keep baseballs from important achievements, and if so, how do you organize them/keep them?

I do. I have all of my Major League firsts packed away in storage for the moment. I think I would display it all in some way eventually!

If you were active during Players Weekend, what would your nickname have been on your jersey?

I was dubbed “Lurch” as a rookie in 2008, and it stuck.

When the team travels, do the players go out to eat together? Do you typically get to do what you want on an off day in an away city?

We mix in team dinners pretty often and break into groups sometimes as well. The bullpen will usually eat together regularly. I personally get lunch or dinner with a teammate pretty much everyday. And yes, when we’re off for a day, we have the freedom go out and about.

From Myra K.:

What’s in the backpack that a relief pitcher carries out to the bullpen?

The essentials:

Candy. Everyone loves candy.
Energy items. Red Bull, Monster, 5-hour energy, coffee, pre-workout. Really whatever the guys need.
Warm up equipment. Items need to get the body ready to throw.
Icy Hot. That muscle cream to warm up the body.
Pain Relievers. Duh
Energy Bars and Sunflower Seeds.

Thanks again for all of the questions!

Don’t forget to follow all the socials for updates and great conversation: Twitter | Instagram | YouTube | Twitch

Notable Recent Late-Season Extensions

By Jeff Todd | September 7, 2017 at 10:21am CDT

September isn’t usually a terribly active month on the trade front, as players acquired after August 31 are not eligible to join an acquiring club’s postseason roster. However, in recent years, we have seen some notable extensions hammered out in the final full month of the regular season (or shortly thereafter in early October). While most such agreements represent short-term arrangements with veterans, every now and again there’s a more significant pact to be found. Could we see one go down in the next week and change? Here’s a look back at some notable late-season extensions over the past six seasons…

2016

Marlins sign Martin Prado to a three-year, $40MM extension. — This is one of the biggest deals we have seen at this stage of the season. The steady veteran had a long history of quality performance — solidly above-average hitting with good glovework — and had settled in as a leader in Miami. Of course, the contract also didn’t seem to represent much of a discount for a low-power player who was already 32 years of age. Prado has struggled with injuries quite a bit in 2017, slashing just .250/.279/.357 over 147 plate appearances, which makes the backloaded deal look like a suboptimal investment.
Braves sign Jim Johnson to a two-year, $10MM extension. — This early October deal set the Braves’ offseason course, as the club would go on to invest in several other veteran hurlers. Then 33, Johnson was wrapping up quite a strong season at the time of the extension, as he contributed 64 2/3 frames of 3.06 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 along with a 55.0% groundball rate. Johnson was expected to function as Atlanta’s closer, keeping a veteran arm to the back of the pen while tamping down the arbitration earning power of younger pitchers. While he has maintained his surge in strikeouts, though, Johnson has allowed more walks, hits, home runs, and earned runs (5.81 ERA) thus far in 2017.

2015

Marlins sign Ichiro Suzuki to a one-year, $2MM extension with a club option. — The Fish pushed a 41-year-old Ichiro harder than had been expected in 2015, and he responded with a less-than-useful campaign. But he was still valued as a bench presence, and it didn’t hurt that 2016 promised a run at 3,000 hits. Ichiro not only passed that milestone, but thrived in a more limited role that year, providing solid baserunning and glovework as well as a sturdy .291/.354/.376 batting line in 365 plate appearances. The Marlins ended up repeating the contractual move late in 2016, picking up the option and adding another option year. He hasn’t been nearly as productive at the plate in 2017, however.

2014

Rockies sign Jorge De La Rosa to a two-year, $25MM extension. — De La Rosa saw a strong uptick in his fastball velocity in 2014, his second full season back from Tommy John surgery. With an average of 92.3 mph on his heater versus 91.1 mph in 2013, De La Rosa pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 160 2/3 innings of work at the time of the signing. In 2015, the hurler pitched to a similar 4.17 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, but his productivity fell off in the second year of the contract — which proved to be the end of his tenure in Colorado.

2013

Padres sign Will Venable to a two-year, $8.5MM extension. — Venable had a breakout season in terms of his power production in 2013, so the Padres moved to lock in his remaining arbitration salaries, as further 20-homer/20-steal seasons would cause the price to soar. Unfortunately for the team, Venable’s decision to opt for security looks wise, in hindsight, as he batted just .224/.288/.325 in the first year of the deal and .248/.325/.356 in 2015. Venable ended up moving to the Rangers in an August waiver trade and saw only minimal MLB time from that point forward. He ultimately hung up his spikes and took a front-office gig with the Cubs in 2017.
Marlins sign Greg Dobbs to a one-year, $1.75MM extension. — This extension drew plenty of public scrutiny, as Dobbs’ on-field performance in 2013 (.228/.303/.300) didn’t warrant the deal. It was eventually reported that owner Jeffrey Loria negotiated the deal without consulting former president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Dobbs extension would be one of many stories that were referenced when describing the rift between Loria and Beinfest at the time of Beinfest’s dismissal.
Giants sign Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM extension. — The most notable of any extension in this post, Pence was positioned to be one of the top free agents in the 2013-14 class, but he took what looked to be market value at the time to remain in San Francisco. As it turns out, the market for outfield bats was more aggressive than many had thought, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landing seven-year deals worth $153MM and $131MM, respectively. In the first season of his deal, Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 20 homers. While he largely continued that output over the next two seasons of the pact, injuries sapped his playing time and Pence hit a wall in 2017 (his age-34 campaign).

2012

Padres sign Chris Denorfia to a two-year, $4.25MM extension. — Denorfia’s strong season led former GM Josh Byrnes to lock in his final arb years with this modest extension, and Denorfia made the deal look like a good one in 2013 by hitting a solid .279/.337/.395 with a career-high 10 homers and excellent numbers against lefties. His production fell off in the contract’s second year, but the Padres’ triumvirate of interim GMs were still able to flip him to Seattle for outfielder Abraham Almonte and minor league righty Stephen Kohlscheen.
Rangers sign Colby Lewis to a one-year, $2MM extension. — Lewis went down for the season in mid-July back in 2012, but he’d been enjoying a strong season and was expected to return for the 2013 campaign, making a $2MM salary a potential bargain for Texas. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Lewis had multiple setbacks and wasn’t able to take the hill the following season, but it’s not hard to see why they were interested in the low-risk deal; Lewis had turned in a 3.93 ERA over his previous 506 1/3 innings with the Rangers.

2011

Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter to a two-year, $21MM extension. — Carpenter led the league in innings pitched in 2011 and had been generally excellent over the previous three seasons, prompting quite a bit of praise for this deal. He, in fact, restructured his contract and took what most expected to be less money in the long run, giving up a $15MM club option in favor of this two-year deal. Of course, Carpenter would sadly throw just 17 more innings in his career before injuries forced him to retire. While it looked good at the time, this deal didn’t pan out.
Mets sign Tim Byrdak to a one-year, $1MM extension. — While the extension wasn’t particularly memorable and didn’t have a large impact on the 2012 Mets, Byrdak fired 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and was a strong weapon against lefties, making him worth his modest salary.
Cardinals sign Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12MM extension. — After a huge rebound campaign in 2011, Big Puma was rewarded with this contract, but he totaled just 97 plate appearances the following season due to knee injuries. He wasn’t able to recover with the Rangers in 2013 and retired following that season, putting an end to an excellent career.
Marlins sign Omar Infante to a two-year, $8MM extension. — This contract paid dividends in the sense that Infante was largely excellent for the Marlins over the next half-season before being dealt to the Tigers along with Anibal Sanchez. That trade netted former top prospect Jacob Turner, catcher Rob Brantly and lefty Brian Flynn — a respectable haul at the time but one that now looks lackluster. Miami dealt Turner to the Cubs for a pair of low-level relievers last season, and Brantly was passed over in favor of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
White Sox sign Sergio Santos to a three-year, $8.25MM extension. — Signed at the end of a breakout season as the White Sox closer, Santos found himself traded to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Nestor Molina that offseason. Molina didn’t do much and was outrighted by the ChiSox in 2014, but they probably feel fortunate not to have had to pay Santos the money he was guaranteed, as shoulder injuries led to a 5.23 ERA and just 51 innings pitched over the life of his three guaranteed years with Toronto.

The original version of this post was written by Steve Adams and Zach Links and ran in September 2015.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Playoffs & PONAR

By Tim Dillard | September 6, 2017 at 7:32am CDT

It’s 12:34pm on Tuesday September 5th, 2017. My name is Tim Dillard. I’m an elegantly bearded thirty-something-year-old-minor-league-pitcher, and a few days ago I finished my 15th season in professional baseball! And every year I have been at some level in the Milwaukee Brewers organization! Here’s more useless facts about myself… I ENJOY: short walks on the beach, the new wireless headphones I bought and haven’t told my wife about yet, saltwater taffy, wrestling with my three kids, cheap sunglasses, playing Clue, explaining Star Wars to teammates, and chronologically writing down my inner baseball thoughts… for money. (THANKS MLB Trade Rumors!)

12:37pm Currently I have a window seat on a United flight from Denver to Memphis because, well, as you may already know… we made the PLAYOFFS! That is right… for the first time in twenty years the Triple-A Colorado Springs Sky Sox Baseball Team has made it to the postseason! The last time this happened, the team roster was filled with a bunch of players nobody’s ever heard of… like Craig Counsell and Todd Helton.

12:39pm Can’t believe how packed this plane is right now. I wonder if all these people are flying to Tennessee just for our playoff game tomorrow! Pretty sure the guy sitting next to me is trying to read what I’m typing… and he may have stolen my peanuts. (I saw him eat two packs.)

12:40pm You know, it’s hard to make the postseason. Some players go their entire careers without making playoffs. In the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, there are four divisions of four teams… and only the top four actually make the postseason. So yep, it’s a big deal.

12:41pm This will be the seventh time in my pro career to be part of a playoff team. Six in America, and one in Venezuela. (¡Te amo y te extraño Águilas del Zulia!)

12:41pm In 2003, my rookie ball team in Helena, Montana went to playoffs. We didn’t win it all… and honestly that’s about all I can remember. It feels like such a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…

12:43pm In 2006, the Double-A Huntsville Stars made playoffs and almost won the championship! It was an interesting year too because we were statistically the worst team in all of baseball the first half of the season. Then we added a pitcher (Yovani Gallardo) and a third baseman (Ryan Braun)… and just like that, we became the best team in all of baseball the second half!

12:47pm In 2007, the Triple-A Nashville Sounds made the playoffs but lost in the first round. After we clinched and were spraying discount champagne in each others’ eyes… the Major League club called up half the team. We lost the team camaraderie voodoo, and were easily defeated by the New Orleans Zephyrs. (Insert loud weeping emoji)

12:50pm In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers made an amazing run to clinch the National League Wild Card! I wasn’t added to the playoff roster, but I WAS however nervously eating clubhouse cheesesteaks every inning in Philadelphia! (We didn’t win… but I did gain seven pounds.)

12:54pm In 2011, the Brewers again made the playoffs and almost went to the World Series! And again, I wasn’t added to the playoff roster. But this time I got to carry the candy bag, sit in the bullpen, and wave my proverbial pom-poms!

12:56pm Ok, I gotta know… here’s a test sentence for the guy next to me. Excuse me airplane passenger sitting in 32B, are you by chance reading what I’m typing?

12:57pm Haha! He laughed… caughtcha!

1:11pm Alright, so mister 32B’s real name is Anthony! Good dude.

1:12pm He asked me how my season went… I told him I was a relief pitcher, but got to be the backup catcher last month during a game in Salt Lake City! The team had a need, so I dressed in full catcher’s gear, and warmed-up and caught four teammates in the bullpen! I even got to warm one up on the field in between innings!

1:14pm I also told my new travel companion about the different game delays I witnessed at the ball field this season. There’s your basic rain, wind, lightning, dust, and hail delays. But then there’s also the more interesting delays: There was the fog delay. And the too many bugs in the lights delay. And of course the… two snakes trying to eat each other in left field delay.

1:117pm But truthfully it’s difficult for a player to judge how his season went. Probably because we’re biased, and want validation that all the good outweighed all the bad. That all the sacrifices may have accomplished something. Like all the workouts. Spring training. Plane trips. Bus trips. Being away from family. Away from friends. The aches. The pains. (Special shout out to my boy ibuprofen… love you big guy!)

1:21pm However baseball is all about statistics. It measures everything. From route efficiency and WAR. To sabermetrical something something and WHIP. Let’s not forget OBP, OFA, OPS, and OPP yeah you know me. Anyway, you get it, “Stats on Stats on Stats.”

1:22pm Which is all fine. Statistics are necessary, but sometimes stats just don’t tell the whole story of a player’s season.

1:22pm For instance, the way baseball measures, oh I don’t know, let’s say… the relief pitcher. E.R.A. or Earned Run Average is a solid way to calculate a starting pitchers effectiveness, but can actually be a disadvantage for a reliever at times.

1:24pm So that’s why back in 2012 I invented PONAR! I’m certain some of you have already heard of this “LEGIT” bullpen statistic, so you can stop reading. But for the rest of you… P.O.N.A.R means: Percentage of Outings Not Allowing a Run (my first adaptation was P.O.O.N.A.R… but I didn’t think anyone would take that seriously, so I dropped the “Of” part)

1:27pm But yeah… PONAR! Pretty deep huh?

1:28pm Essentially, what my imaginary stat measures, is: how many times a relief pitcher comes into a game and has a scoreless appearance. So if a pitcher’s PONAR is 90%, it means 9 out of 10 times he doesn’t give up a run. It’s better than earned run average (E.R.A.) because if a reliever is lights-out 9 out of 10 times, but the 10th time gives up 7 runs… he’s still a fantastic pitcher!… even though he has 6.30 E.R.A.

1:33pm As opposed to a relief pitcher giving up 1 run in 7 of 10 appearances. His E.R.A. would be the same at 6.30… but his PONAR would be a dismal 30%.

1:34pm Make sense? (Insert confused emoji)

1:34pm Oh well… anyone out there have the phone number for ESPN’s super-analyst Tim Kurkjian!? I need to text him something. He may be the man who can help get my PONAR off the ground!

1:35pm Speaking of ground, I need to make sure my seat back and tray table are in their full upright and locked position.

To Be Concluded…

Free Agent Stock Watch: Andrew Cashner

By Jeff Todd | September 5, 2017 at 8:40pm CDT

Andrew Cashner took a one-year, $10MM deal with the Rangers last winter — far shy of the kind of earning power that was anticipated a few years back, when Cashner seemed to be one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Still, that was a significant one-year payout and came with hopes for a bigger payday this winter.

Cashner has certainly made good on the deal from the Rangers’ perspective, as he has turned in 139 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA pitching over 23 starts. That’s a great return on the team’s investment, helping to balance out the miss on Cashner’s former Padres teammate, Tyson Ross, who also joined the Texas staff in hopes of a turnaround.

Those superficial results, however, don’t tell us all we need to know about Cashner’s interesting upcoming foray into free agency. While it’s tempting simply to assume that the notably talented right-hander has finally found health and figured things out, organizations — including the Rangers — will be looking at quite a bit more information in valuing the rights to his future production.

It’s hard not to raise an eyebrow at Cashner’s ugly K/BB numbers. He has recorded just 4.8 K/9 — second-lowest among all qualified starters — against 3.3 BB/9 on the year. He also sports a meager 5.7% swinging-strike rate that not only falls well below his career average but also ranks dead last among qualified starting pitchers.

The hurler has continued to maintain solid ground-ball numbers, with a 48.4% rate thus far in 2017. And perhaps there’s some indication of contact management in the .267 batting average on balls in play to which he has limited opposing hitters; while that’s surely a sign that there Cashner has benefited from some good fortune, the 28.2 percent hard-hit rate he’s allowed is the eighth-lowest in MLB. Cashner has tamped down on the homers that hurt him last year (8.3% HR/FB, 0.77 HR/9), though again it’s tough to see that as a fully sustainable skill.

Clearly, the underlying metrics paint quite a different picture than do the bottom-line results. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators are not enthused with Cashner’s work this year. SIERA (5.41) and xFIP (5.16) have never before been this bearish on the right-hander, while FIP (4.42) only prefers his work this year to his more homer-prone 2016 (when he carried a 4.84 mark).

Beyond the matters of present and projected talent, long-term durability remains something of a question given that Cashner has missed some time with arm issues in the past. He’ll turn 31 in a few days, so he isn’t old, but he’s also not particularly young for a free-agent pitcher. Notably, too, Cashner’s velocity has trended downward. This year, he’s sitting at 94 mph with his four-seamer and 92.9 mph with his sinker — around one full tick below the prior year in both cases (and yet further behind his peak levels).

So, what might the market make of all this? It’s rather difficult to say, truthfully, since it’s hard to find pitchers with anything approaching this kind of profile. While bounceback hurlers such as Rich Hill and Scott Kazmir have scored three-year, $48MM contracts in recent years after returning from rough stretches, they did so after carrying good results and peripherals for one or more prior seasons.

Frankly, it’s hard to see Cashner commanding that sort of AAV. That’s particularly true given the relatively robust slate of mid- and back-of-the-rotation hurlers lined up on the market behind the biggest names. Cashner will be competing with pitchers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Marco Estrada, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Chatwood, John Lackey, and a host of others.

Cashner’s inability to generate swings and misses makes a qualifying offer (reportedly set to be worth about $18.1MM) seem unlikely. Hellickson, after all, had a more impressive overall body of work in 2016 but still accepted a $17.2MM QO from the Phillies. Texas may not really want to chance that outcome in the hopes of securing the now-reduced draft compensation that could be available if he declines and signs elsewhere. Or, perhaps, if both team and player enjoy the current arrangement, the sides could pursue a multi-year arrangement during the exclusive negotiating window. (That’s how the Blue Jays got Estrada to stay for two years and $26MM two years ago.)

With or without compensation, Cashner seems more likely to receive offers in that $8MM to $12MM annual range, dependent upon the length of the term. We have seen quite a few solid but flawed arms land in that admittedly wide bucket — often scoring long-term commitments. Three-year pacts have gone to J.A. Happ ($36MM) and Ivan Nova ($26MM) — both of which have held up rather well thus far. Pitchers such as Ricky Nolasco and Brandon McCarthy have secured ~$12MM annually over four-year terms, though they had stronger free-agent cases based on their underlying metrics than Cashner. We’ve even seen some lower-AAV, longer-term deals, such as those landed by Phil Hughes (three years, $24MM) and Jason Vargas (four years, $32MM), which function as a reminder that the market can always create one-off contract scenarios.

Perhaps the most interesting analogy, all things considered, comes from Yovani Gallardo’s recent trip into free agency. At the time, he was coming off of a year in which he put up 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching with a solid ground-ball rate but just 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He was younger than Cashner by about a year, with a lengthier track record of performance and durability, though he also had shown a more significant velocity decrease before entering the market. Gallardo was initially able to secure a $35MM guarantee over three years, but he ultimately had to settle for a promise of $22MM with a third-year option after a shoulder issue came up in his physical. Hopefully, Cashner can avoid any medical complications; he may also not come with draft compensation, which surely impacted Gallardo (who didn’t sign until late February).

While it’s hardly a perfect comp, the experience of Gallardo suggests there are some limits — but also that there’s real earning potential — for pitchers who have managed to post a solid ERA despite underwhelming peripheral indicators. Just how Cashner’s market will shape up is hard to guess at the moment, but he’ll be an interesting player to watch this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | September 3, 2017 at 5:58pm CDT

Here’s a roundup of original content from MLB Trade Rumors over the last seven days…

In the latest edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams answers your questions about such topics as Carlos Gonzalez, Yoan Moncada, Kevin Pillar, Mike Moustakas and the Mets’ offseason needs.
Twins reliever Trevor May is back with his latest contribution to the Player’s Perspective series, discussing how his time away from baseball (due to Tommy John rehab) has allowed him to revisit his childhood fandom of the sport.
Jeff Todd lists the seven best waiver claims of the last 12 months, including three names (Doug Fister, Blake Parker, Stephen Vogt) that have made strong contributions to playoff contenders.
The newest edition of Jason Martinez’s Knocking Down The Door series looks at some promising minor leaguers who could soon be appearing in the bigs as September callups. In fact, since Jason’s piece was published last Monday, two of the names mentioned (the Marlins’ Brian Anderson and the Cubs’ Dillon Maples) have been promoted and made their MLB debuts.
Will Masahiro Tanaka opt out of his contract after the season and test free agency, or will he remain with the Yankees for the final three years (and $67MM) of his current deal? Connor Byrne posed the question to the readership in an MLBTR poll, with a slight majority (53% of respondents) believing that Tanaka will indeed opt out.
Connor Byrne lists the top five contenders for the AL MVP Award, with the Astros’ Jose Altuve looking like the favorite going into the season’s final four weeks.

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