Update On Mets’ Managerial Search
Not long after reports of the A’s conducting their first managerial interview surfaced, the Mets have begun an interview carousel of their own. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets conducted their first managerial interview today, and expect to keep the process going Tuesday. Among the identified managerial candidates include a trio of bench coaches— Houston’s Joe Espada, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro, and Pittsburgh’s Don Kelly— as well as two veteran managers, Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus.
Martino notes that the current list of candidates still has room to grow, but throws cold water on the notion that beloved Mets alumni Curtis Granderson and David Wright will interview after their names surfaced in earlier discussions. Whoever makes the shortlist and earns a shot at interviewing will meet with newly-minted GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Owner Steve Cohen will meet with vetted candidates some time after the initial round of interviews.
The identity of today’s interviewed candidate was none other than Brad Ausmus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ausmus has quite a few things going for his candidacy that surely helped net him the first opportunity to meet with Mets decision-makers. One such factor working in Ausmus’s favor is his relationship to Eppler, as Ausmus served as a special assistant to Eppler before being promoted to dugout manager in 2019 while the two were with the Angels. In other networking news, Fansided’s Robert Murray also notes that Ausmus is a Dartmouth alum like Mets president Sandy Alderson and assistant GM Bryn Alderson.
Unlike some of the candidates who have yet to interview, Ausmus also has a track record as a Major League manager. Between his time with the Angels and Detroit, he has compiled a 386-412 record as a manager, including two winning seasons at the helm and a playoff appearance. It probably also doesn’t hurt Ausmus’s case that his best season in Detroit coincided with Max Scherzer‘s last season in the AL. Scherzer, one of the Mets’ marquee pickups this offseason, owns one of the game’s more fiery personalities and is perhaps best handled by a dugout operator who’s familiar with his tempo.
If Quatraro’s name rings a bell it may be because he interviewed with the A’s within the past couple of days. That the Tampa Bay bench coach has landed interviews for 100% of this offseason’s managerial vacancies is no surprise. The Rays have proven their division’s winningest team during Quatraro’s time as bench coach, no small feat considering the powerhouses that reside within those same confines. Martino reports that Quatraro is in line for a Tuesday interview.
There aren’t many updates for the remaining candidates of Espada, Kelly, and Showalter, though they all remain highly credible options in the wake of MLBTR’s profile of their candidacies last week. Jon Heyman does note (via Twitter) that Espada and Eppler share a “strong link” dating back to their time in the Yankees organization, and calls Espada a “serious contender”.
Matt Quatraro Interviews With Athletics; Interview With Mets Likely To Follow
The A’s have interviewed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro within the past few days as part of their search for a new manager, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He becomes the first known candidate to sit down with Oakland brass.
Quatraro, 48, has been regarded as a potential manager of the future for the past few years. Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant over the last three seasons in Tampa Bay, he interviewed with the Pirates and Giants over the 2019-20 offseason and sat down with the Tigers last fall. Quatraro, who played professionally for seven seasons and topped out at Triple-A, has never managed in the majors. He does have nearly two decades of coaching experience in the Rays’ organization (in addition to a 2014 stint as Indians’ assistant hitting coach). That includes four years managing in the low minors in the Tampa Bay system.
Oakland is on the hunt for a new manager after Bob Melvin’s surprising departure to take over the dugout in San Diego. For the first time in more than a decade, the A’s will go into a season without Melvin leading the charge. Former bench coach Ryan Christenson is departing to assume the same role under Melvin with the Padres, removing one potential in-house option from the mix.
The A’s are one of two teams in search of a new skipper. The other club, the Mets, has also expressed interest in Quatraro. Buster Olney of ESPN reported this morning (on Twitter) that New York was requesting permission from the Rays to interview him. Topkin reports that Tampa Bay has granted that request, writing that Quatraro could sit down with members of the New York front office as soon as tomorrow.
The Status Of The Corner Outfield Market
Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber is said to be asking for a three-year, $60MM contract, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins were exploring contracts with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos before the lockout, ultimately coming to a four-year, $53MM agreement with Avisail Garcia instead. Miami also offered Starling Marte a four-year, $60MM offer before he signed with the Mets, notes Jackson.
The market for Schwarber remains robust, however, with many teams throughout the league in need of corner outfield help. The Red Sox – his most recent club – may be a less clean fit for Schwarber after re-acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and making the lineup that much more left-leaning, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey isn’t as sure that Schwarber’s being a left-handed hitter really represents a problem.
Beyond Schwarber and Castellanos, there remain a plethora of free agents capable of stationing in an outfield corner. Kris Bryant is the biggest name of the bunch, though his strongest suitors are likely to at least appreciate his glovework at the hot corner. World Series highlight generators Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario remain available. Michael Conforto is the other big name still out there, though he has a qualifying offer attached, which may affect his market.
Brett Gardner, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Brian Goodwin, Alex Dickerson, and Corey Dickerson are some of the more attractive options out there with recent starting experience. In terms of specialists, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Kevin Pillar, and Jake Marisnick may fit the bill. There are also a fair number of multi-positional utility men out there, such as Niko Goodrum, Josh Harrison, Marwin Gonzalez, Danny Santana, and Brad Miller.
Latest On Mets’ Managerial Search
10:04 pm: Martino tweets that while Granderson’s name had come up in initial discussions, he is not expected to interview for the position.
9:49 pm: Robert Murray of FanSided reports (on Twitter) that longtime big league outfielder Curtis Granderson is also under consideration for the Mets. The 40-year-old announced his retirement from playing in 2020 following a 16-year big league career that included a trio of All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger Award.
Granderson had emerged as a respected veteran presence in clubhouses over the course of his career. He currently serves as the president of the Players Alliance, a nonprofit organization aimed at increasing accessibility within the sport for Black athletes. Granderson played four seasons with the Mets during team president Sandy Alderson’s time as the club’s GM. Prior to that, he spent four years with the Yankees — a stint that overlapped with Eppler’s time in the club’s front office.
6:35 pm: The Mets declined an option to bring back skipper Luis Rojas shortly after the end of the 2021 season. Two months later, they remain without a manager. After spending a significant chunk of the early offseason in the search for a new GM that eventually landed Billy Eppler, the Mets turned their attention to the player market last week in advance of the lockout. With clubs barred from making major league transactions for the duration of the work stoppage, the Mets and the Athletics, the other team currently without a manager, figure to zero in on those respective searches in short order.
Andy Martino of SNY reports some preliminary candidates, naming Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly and former MLB managers Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus among those under early consideration. Martino cautions that’s not an exhaustive list, and it’s not clear whether everyone in that group will get an interview.
No one from that group registers as much of a surprise. None of Espada, Quatraro or Kelly has managed at the big league level, but they’ve all been rumored as part of searches elsewhere. Espada, 46, has been the bench coach in Houston for the past four seasons, working underneath both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker. He’s interviewed for a few different managerial openings in recent years and at one point even looked to be the favorite for the Giants job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler.
Quatraro’s name has come up a few times over the past couple offseasons. Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant over the last three years in Tampa Bay, the 48-year-old Quatraro has interviewed with the Giants, Pirates and Tigers in winters past and was reportedly a finalist for the Pittsburgh job that went to Derek Shelton. Kelly has worked underneath Shelton in the Steel City over the past two seasons. The 41-year-old interviewed with the Tigers and Red Sox last offseason and was reported to be among the top handful under consideration for the job that went to Alex Cora.
Showalter and Ausmus, meanwhile, come with significant managerial experience. The former has been one of the more accomplished skippers of the past couple decades. Showalter, now 65, landed his first big league managerial job with the Yankees in 1992. He spent four years in the Bronx, managed the D-Backs from 1998-2000, the Rangers from 2003-06 and the Orioles from 2010-18.
Over his career, Showalter won Manager of the Year Awards at three of those four stops. He’s overseen five playoff clubs (including three division winners), taking the 2014 Orioles to the AL Championship Series. Showalter hasn’t managed since being dismissed by Baltimore after the 2018 campaign, but he’s continued to express openness to a return to the dugout.
Ausmus, meanwhile, has managed at two separate stints. He spent the 2014-17 campaigns at the helm of the Tigers, then managed the Angels in 2019. That stint in Anaheim overlapped with Eppler’s tenure as Angels’ GM, fueling immediate speculation upon the latter’s hiring with the Mets that he could look to bring Ausmus to Queens.
Prior to that stint as skipper, Ausmus spent the 2018 season as a member of the Los Angeles front office. Eppler’s Angels fired Ausmus after just one season in the managerial chair, but it was reported at the time that call was made by owner Arte Moreno (perhaps not coincidentally just one day after it was announced Joe Maddon was leaving the Cubs).
Kris Bryant Drawing Widespread Interest
With just a few hours to go in advance of tonight’s expected CBA expiration, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that numerous teams are showing interest in free agent Kris Bryant. Heyman lists a whole host of teams who have checked in with Bryant’s camp recently, including the Mets, Angels, and Padres. These teams add to the growing list of previously reported teams like the Rockies, Mariners, Phillies, and Astros to express interest in the longtime Cub.
It’s no surprise that Bryant continues to draw such wide interest. Between his ability to play multiple positions and status as one of the best free agents left on the market, several teams likely view Bryant as the best solution to a roster problem that money can buy. Still, despite being of the perspective that the “Bryant market is really starting to move”, Heyman notes that a deal is unlikely to come together tonight. Even if Bryant is content to wait through the work stoppage like Heyman asserts, it’s nonetheless notable to hear new teams kicking the tires on such a high impact player.
In the wake of their recent spending bonanza it would be unwise to count out the Mets on any free agent pursuit, even if every additional dollar spent under Steven Cohen’s watch represents a new franchise high. Bryant may seem like a curious fit for a team that has no shortage of corner options, but it’s worth remembering that several of those options contributed to a team that finished 27th in runs scored last season. Accordingly, it’s possible some players could cede playing time to (or be traded to accommodate) a steady producer like Bryant.
The Angels and Padres represent somewhat imperfect fits on the surface as well, as both have high profile third basemen already in the form of Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon. One could further argue that both teams have a greater need in the rotation than in their lineups. That said, LA and San Diego field two playoff-hopeful teams who finished 17th and 14th respectively in runs scored last season. Signing Bryant would take resources away from pitching investments for either franchise, but would represent more of a sure thing than relying on Jurickson Profar in left field or either Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell in right.
Blue Jays, Mets Among Teams Interested In Yusei Kikuchi
6:20 PM: Though he doesn’t have specifics on offers made by the Mets and Jays, Heyman further reports that Kikuchi has multiple three-year offers on the table. Whether those offers are from either Toronto or New York — or whether he signs before the near-certain lockout in a few hours — remains to be seen.
9:58 AM: The starting pitching market has been red hot of late as teams have been trying to bolster their rotations before the current CBA expires tonight, which is widely expected to lead to a lockout and transaction freeze. One intriguing name that remains available is Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty has attracted the attention of the Blue Jays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, as well as the Mets, per Andy Martino of SNY.
Kikuchi, 30, is one of the more difficult pitchers to value on the market. After a dominant run in Japan’s NPB over eight seasons, Kikuchi was signed by the Mariners but struggled in his first MLB season in 2019. In 161 2/3 innings that year, his ERA was 5.46, along with a ground ball rate of 44% and meager strikeout rate of 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he dropped his ERA only slightly, to 5.17. However, his strikeout rate jumped to 24.2% and his groundball rate to 52%, perhaps indicating that better results were ahead.
For the first few months of 2021, Kikuchi seemed to hit his stride. By July, he was pitching so well that it seemed the Mariners had a tough decision on their hands, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams. At that time, Kikuchi had an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4% and 53.8% grounder rate. It started to seem possible that the club could trigger a four-year option over Kikuchi, that would pay him $66MM for the 2022-2025 seasons. However, Kikuchi faded down the stretch, posting a 6.22 ERA, 23.3 strikeout rate and 10.3 BB% from July 7th onward, getting bumped from the rotation before the season ended. In the end, the Mariners passed on their option, leaving Kikuchi to decide whether or not to trigger a $13MM player option for the 2022 season. Despite his sluggish finish this year, he decided to leave that money on the table and test free agency. MLBTR ranked him 34th among this year’s free agents, predicting a contract of $20MM over two years.
The Blue Jays’ rotation took a couple of hits in recent weeks, as Robbie Ray and Steven Matz departed for the Mariners and Cardinals, respectively. However, they mitigated the damage somewhat by signing Kevin Gausman to slot in next to Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. Although they have options for the fifth slot, such as Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch, Stripling has often been used as a swingman out of the bullpen, while Pearson and Hatch are still young and dealt with injuries in 2021. Adding Kikuchi could bump those options to the bullpen or the minors and improve the overall depth of the staff.
The Mets have been one of the most active teams in free agency lately, going on a spending spree that included the pickups of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. That has pushed the team’s 2022 payroll to a massive $263MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Prior to Steve Cohen purchasing the team a year ago, the franchise record payroll was $158MM in 2019. To sign Kikuchi, they would likely have to continue pushing their budget to new record-breaking levels. If they are willing to do so, Kikuchi would add an extra safety net to a rotation that is high on talent but which also has injury concerns, as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco both missed significant time in 2021. Scherzer, deGrom, Carrasco and Taijuan Walker would take up four rotation spots, if healthy, with younger options like Tylor Megill and David Peterson on hand as likely candidates for the backend.
Mets Sign Eduardo Escobar
The Mets announced Wednesday they’ve signed free agent infielder Eduardo Escobar to a two-year guarantee with a 2024 club option. It’s reportedly a $20MM guarantee for the DJ Rengifo y Associates client. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Escobar the game’s #35 free agent, forecasting him for the two-year, $20MM guarantee he ultimately landed.
Escobar gives the Mets cover at three infield positions, as he’s coming off a season in which he logged 100+ innings at each of first base, second base and third base. He also had extended run as a shortstop earlier in his career, but he’s only played two innings there over the past three years. Escobar doesn’t rate as a particularly strong defender anywhere on the diamond, but he’s at least capable of bouncing between a few spots on the dirt.
While that defensive versatility is a nice bonus, the calling card with Escobar has been his bat. He’s been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of the last three full seasons, unexpectedly morphing into a power threat late in his career. While he hit just 27 home runs over his first 1620 major league plate appearances, Escobar found another gear in that department in 2017. He hit 21 homers in 499 trips to the dish that season, and he’s knocked between 23 and 35 longballs with an above-average ISO (slugging minus batting average) in all three full campaigns since then.
Escobar has gotten to that increased impact without sacrificing much in the way of contact. He’s kept his strikeout rate right around 20% over the course of his career, around three percentage points below the league mark. His contact and swinging strike rates have also hovered right around average. And the switch-hitting Escobar has fared well from both sides of the plate. Going back to the start of 2018, he’s a .283/.333/.482 batter against left-handed pitching; his .249/.311/.473 mark against righties over that same stretch isn’t as impressive, but it’s still around league average output from his weaker side.
There’s a lot to like about Escobar’s offensive game, although he’s not completely without flaws. The Venezuela native had an awful .212/.270/.335 showing over 222 plate appearances in the truncated 2020 season. He bounced back to offer more typical .253/.314/.472 output between the D-Backs and Brewers in 2021. That clearly erased some doubts about Escobar’s 2020 struggles, but he’ll turn 33 years old in January. And even at his best, Escobar has an aggressive approach that tamps down his walk rate and leads to on-base percentages right around the league average.
Escobar is coming off his first career All-Star selection, but that nod was also influenced by the rule requiring an All-Star rep from every team and his presence on a lackluster Arizona club. He’s more solid regular than star, but Escobar was valued around three wins above replacement by each of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs in 2018, 2019 and 2021. The Mets will hope for more of that same steadiness over the coming seasons, and Escobar’s versatility enables Eppler and his staff to be flexible in building the infield around him.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are ensconced at shortstop and first base, respectively. Second and third base are less settled, though, with Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis the respective in-house favorites at those spots. Both players can also man the corner outfield, and neither is without question marks. McNeil didn’t make his typical level of offensive impact in 2021, while Davis is a below-average defender at the hot corner. Davis, in particular, has been frequently mentioned as a speculative trade candidate — so much so that he’s even expressed some doubt about whether he’ll be back in Flushing next season. Robinson Canó is also slated to return from a season-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and could factor into the second base mix, although it remains to be seen how much faith a new front office head and manager will have in the 39-year-old veteran.
Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported that Escobar and the Mets were in agreement on a two-year contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the $20MM guarantee as well as the presence of a 2024 club option.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21
We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.
As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:
- The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
- The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
- The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
- The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
- The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
- The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
- The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
- The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
- The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
- The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
- The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
- The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
- The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.
Mets Sign Starling Marte
The Mets have landed the market’s top center fielder, announcing agreement with Starling Marte on a four-year, $78MM deal. The star outfielder will lock in a $14.5MM salary in 2022 to go with a $5MM signing bonus, then receive $19.5MM salaries from 2023-25. Marte is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.
It’s the culmination of a shocking evening for the Mets, who have also agreed to terms with Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha within the past few days. Marte was the prize of this offseason’s free agent center field class, easily the top option in an otherwise thin market. A 2016 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove award winner, he’s coming off perhaps the best season of his ten-year big league career. Marte split the 2021 campaign between the Marlins and A’s, posting a .310/.383/.458 line with 12 home runs and an MLB-best 47 stolen bases in just 120 games.
A rib fracture cost Marte more than a month of action between April and May, but he was as productive as ever upon returning. After adjusting for the pitcher-friendly home parks in which he played, Marte’s hitting alone was 34 percentage points better than league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s the best mark of his career, and the speedy outfielder added significantly more offensive value on top of that with incredible baserunning. Not only was he the game’s most prolific base-stealer, he was successful on 90.4% of his attempts — an incredible rate considering opposing pitchers were well aware of the threat he posed every time he reached base.
While Marte might be coming off his best season, he’s been a consistently above-average player for the bulk of his career. His 2021 campaign was the most extreme version of a generally steady skillset: plenty of balls in play, high-end baserunning, and an all-fields approach that makes him difficult to defend. Marte’s .372 batting average on balls in play this past season was one of the league’s higher rates, but he’s consistently had a knack for turning batted balls into hits. So while that BABIP may take a bit of a step back in 2022, it’s likelier he’ll regress closer to his career .344 mark as opposed to the .292 league average.
Marte’s an aggressive hitter, and he’s never had a season with an above-average walk rate. His 8.2% walk percentage in 2021 was a personal best, and his patience tailed off significantly after he was traded from Miami to Oakland midseason. His free-swinging ways also keep his strikeouts down, though, as the Dominican Republic native hasn’t punched out in more than 20% of his plate appearances in a season since 2014. So while Marte doesn’t take many free passes, he nevertheless typically manages solid on-base numbers based on batting averages that regularly push (or, in 2021’s case, exceed) .300.
Defensively, Marte broke in as a left fielder with the Pirates in deference to Andrew McCutchen. One of the game’s top corner outfield defenders, he kicked over to center field in 2018 after Pittsburgh traded McCutchen away. He’s spent the past four seasons playing almost exclusively up the middle, drawing mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Marte as a bit below-average over each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average typically rates him a bit above par with the glove.
However one falls on Marte’s glovework, it seems the Mets view him as a defensive upgrade over incumbent center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Signing Marte will allow New York to kick Nimmo into right field, where he’ll replace free agent Michael Conforto (who almost certainly will wind up elsewhere after today’s transactions). They’ll be joined in the regular outfield by Canha, the culmination of a drastic shakeup on the grass that unfolded within the span of a few hours.
How long Marte will be capable of manning center field remains to be seen. He signed an early-career extension with the Pirates that delayed his first trip to the free agent market by a few seasons. Marte turned 33 years old last month, and it’s possible he’ll need to move to a corner spot at some point over the course of this deal. He’s not yet shown an appreciable drop-off in sprint speed, according to Statcast, and the Mets are counting on his speed and defense holding up for at least the next couple seasons.
A four-year guarantee for a player at this age whose game is so reliant on athleticism isn’t without risk. Between Marte’s great platform season and the lack of obvious center field alternatives, that always seemed likely to be the price a team would have to pay to bring him aboard, though. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected a four-year, $80MM guarantee and ranked Marte this winter’s #13 free agent.
Marte is the highest-ranked player of this winter’s class to sign to date, and he’s also secured the largest guarantee of any player so far (edging out Eduardo Rodríguez’s deal with the Tigers by $1MM). In the span of a day, the Mets have become the offseason’s most active club — the kind of spending spree fans in Queens envisioned when Steve Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last offseason.
The club opened Cohen’s first season as owner with a payroll in the $195MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s clear they’re prepared to shatter that mark in year two, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that spreading the Escobar, Canha and Marte deals evenly would push the Mets’ 2022 commitments to $225MM. The organization’s estimated luxury tax bill, meanwhile, now sits above $229MM.
That’s including projections for arbitration-eligible players, some of whom will be non-tendered or traded. Speculatively speaking, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and/or Jeff McNeil could be flipped elsewhere, as today’s series of acquisitions could inhibit the path to everyday reps for that trio (particularly Smith and Davis). Yet it’s also apparent that Cohen is giving general manager Billy Eppler wide leeway to bolster the roster in hopes of snapping a five-year playoff drought, and further moves could be on the horizon. All three of today’s additions are position player pickups, and Eppler is already on record about the team’s desire for rotation help.
While the Mets’ roster is the main story of today’s transactional barrage, their agreement with Marte has trickle-down reverberations for the rest of the league. As the only clear everyday center fielder available in free agency, he’d drawn wide interest over the offseason’s first couple weeks. Teams like the division-rival Phillies, crosstown Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Astros and Rangers had all been rumored to have interest in his services. Having missed out on Marte, a few of those clubs might now have to pivot to the trade market.
Arizona’s Ketel Marte, Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds and Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins stand out as the top potential targets, but it remains to be seen how attainable any of those players may be. The D-Backs have been resistant to moving any of their core controllable stars; the Pirates were reportedly disinclined to consider deals involving Reynolds at the trade deadline, viewing him as a long-term building block. The O’s are at least willing to field offers on Mullins, but it’s not clear that’s anything more than due diligence at this point.
Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the Mets had agreed to terms on a four-year, $78MM guarantee with Marte. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo of MLB.com first reported the salary breakdown of Marte’s contract.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Mets Sign Mark Canha
The Mets continue to bolster their position player mix, announcing agreement Tuesday with free agent outfielder Mark Canha. It’s reportedly a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal also contains a 2024 club option. A Bay Area native, Canha had previously spent his entire big league career with the A’s.
Canha’s contract will see him collect $12MM in 2022 along with a $2MM signing bonus and then $10.5MM in 2023. The 2024 club option is valued at $11.5MM and has a $2MM buyout attached.
Canha becomes the second big addition of the day for the Mets, who also agreed to terms with infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee this afternoon. Canha will step into the club’s outfield mix, with the bulk of that time presumably coming in the corners. While he has experience in all three outfield spots, he’s never rated highly as a center fielder and has logged the plurality of his career innings in left field.
Public metrics like Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have been mixed on Canha’s corner outfield work over the past few seasons. There’s little question about his bat, though, as Canha has been an above-average hitter in each of the past four years by measure of wRC+.
Since the start of the 2019 season, the Berkeley product owns a .249/.377/.438 line over 1365 plate appearances. While he doesn’t have an eye-catching batting average, the right-handed hitter has walked in a fantastic 13.3% of his trips to the dish. That’s the 14th-highest rate among the 159 players with 1000+ plate appearances in that time. As a result, Canha’s on-base percentage is nearly sixty points higher than the league-wide mark over that span.
That ability to reach base may be Canha’s only standout skill, but it’s a highly valuable one for a Mets’ club that ranked sixteenth with a .321 mark this past season (excluding pitchers). And while Canha may not be elite at anything else, he’s a generally solid all-around player. His strikeout rates over the past few years have typically been a bit lower than the league marks. He owns a .189 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) since the start of 2019, which is slightly above par. Canha has done all that in one of the game’s more pitcher-friendly home environments, and his overall offense over the past three seasons checks in 29 percentage points above league average after accounting for park effects.
Canha was off to an especially promising start in 2021. In 325 plate appearances through June 25, he hit .255/.375/.450 with 11 homers. He suffered a left hip strain that landed him on the injured list at that point, an injury from which he didn’t seem to fully recover. While Canha returned in mid-July, he slumped to a .206/.340/.319 line over his final 300 plate appearances. A glance at his batted ball metrics seems to support that narrative. Canha’s average exit velocity before his IL stint sat at a solid 89 MPH; over his final few months, that mark dropped to 85.5 MPH.
The Mets are clearly of the belief that Canha’s power and overall offensive output will return to peak levels after an offseason to recover. His reported $13.25MM average annual value comes in a touch higher than MLBTR’s two-year, $24MM projected guarantee. Still, it’s a reasonable price for a player of Canha’s caliber and the Mets aren’t taking on much long-term risk. Canha turns 33 years old in February, capping the length of offers teams were willing to put forth.
Canha joins Brandon Nimmo as locks for regular playing time in the New York outfield next season. The Mets have various others who could play their way into the mix. Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis could get bumped from a crowded infield mix into outfield work, while Dominic Smith, Khalil Lee and recent big league signee Nick Plummer could also see action. Still, there are enough moving parts that new GM Billy Eppler and his staff could continue to look for upgrades. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that New York still isn’t ruling themselves out of the market for free agent center fielder Starling Marte, for instance.
The specific breakdown of Canha’s deal has yet to be reported, but it’s likely to be another fairly significant addition to the Mets’ 2022 books. If both the Escobar and Canha deals were paid out evenly over the next two seasons, New York’s 2022 payroll would be pushing $207MM in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Mets’ estimated luxury tax commitments, meanwhile, are now up around $210MM (both figures including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players).
It’s not entirely clear how far owner Steve Cohen is willing to push payroll, but it seem very likely they’ll at least be above this past season’s $195MM mark. Both Cohen and Eppler have talked about having ample financial flexibility, and the Mets remain on the hunt for additions to a rotation that has already lost Noah Syndergaard and could see Marcus Stroman depart. It’s already been an active first few days for Eppler in Queens, and it seems likely the Mets will continue to be busy as they try to snap a five-year playoff drought.
As for Canha’s former club, the A’s never seemed especially likely to make a strong run at bringing him back. Oakland is expected to conduct a significant roster overhaul this winter, with ownership seemingly mandating a drastic reduction in payroll. The A’s didn’t make Canha an $18.4MM qualifying offer, and shelling out a multi-year deal at an eight-figure annual salary would’ve registered as a major surprise.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mets and Canha were nearing an agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee had been agreed upon. Sherman also reported the presence of a 2024 option, which Jon Heyman of the MLB Network specified was a club option. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the salary breakdown of Canha’s contract.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.