Mets, Max Scherzer Agree To Record-Setting Three-Year Deal
11:45am: Scherzer can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. There’s also a full no-trade clause in the pact, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $130MM guarantee will be distributed at an even $43.333MM in each year of the deal, Sherman adds.
11:41am: The agreement has been finalized and is now a “done deal,” tweets Martino.
11:03am: The Mets and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer are finalizing a three-year contract worth $130MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. There are only “minor details” left to be sorted out before the Scott Boras client puts pen to paper on a contract that will shatter Gerrit Cole‘s $36MM annual value record. SNY’s Andy Martino had suggested just minutes beforehand that the two parties were moving close to an agreement.
The Scherzer signing is the latest in a frenzied series of free-agent signings for a Mets club that added Starling Marte (four years, $78MM), Mark Canha (two years, $26.5MM) and Eduardo Escobar (two years, $20MM) over the weekend. Scherzer joins a Mets rotation already headlined by one of the generation’s best pitchers, Jacob deGrom, giving the club a one-two punch with a combined five Cy Young Awards and 12 All-Star appearances.
As can be seen on MLBTR’s updated list of the highest average annual values (AAVs) in MLB history, the $43.33MM annual value on Scherzer’s contract establishes a new precedent by a whopping $7.33MM. MLBTR predicted would handily top the previous $36MM record by signing a three-year, $120MM deal — but he’ll break the prior record by an even wider margin. As one of the eight players on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, Scherzer undoubtedly takes pride in advancing the AAV record forward by more than 20 percent.
It comes as something of a surprise to see the deep-pocketed Dodgers outbid on the very type of short-term, huge-AAV deals they tend to prioritize, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning that Los Angeles perhaps preferred to stick to a two-year term. Scherzer, confident in his own abilities and quite likely heartened by the Mets’ aggressive weekend, opted to jump to a club that missed the postseason entirely in 2021 but has quickly come to look more formidable (and surely isn’t yet done with its winter dealings).
The contract carries some obvious risk for the Mets, given not only the sheer magnitude of the number but also given that they’re acquiring Scherzer’s age-37 through age-39 seasons. He’ll turn 40 years old shortly before the contract draws to a conclusion, and the dead arm that plagued him late in the playoffs could certainly have given some interested parties a bit of pause. Still, Scherzer is effectively an unprecedented free agent — so an unprecedented contract only feels fitting.
With three Cy Youngs in his back pocket already, plus another trio of Top 3 finishes (and a pair of fifth-place finishes), Scherzer has emerged as the greatest pitcher of the current generation. He’d be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer even if he retired today, but he’ll spend the next three seasons in Queens, hoping to help the Mets not only secure their first postseason berth since 2016 but win their first World Series title since 1986.
Despite his age, Scherzer remains one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet. Among the 129 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2021, Scherzer ranked fourth in ERA (2.46), tenth in FIP (2.97), third in strikeout rate (34.1%), 11th in walk rate (5.2%), second in K-BB% (28.9%) and third in swinging-strike rate (15.9%). He was well above average in terms of limiting hard contact, and Statcast pegged him in the 91st percentile or better in expected opponents’ batting average, expected ERA and expected opponents’ wOBA. Whether you prefer those newer metrics or simply to look at Scherzer’s 15-4 record, minuscule ERA and a similarly microscopic 0.86 WHIP — there’s no getting around the fact that “Mad Max” is not just a bona fide ace but is still one of the game’s truly elite pitchers, even in his late 30s.
The opt-out decision in Scherzer’s contract will be fascinating when it’s due. If he continues at that historic level and wants to continue pitching into his 40s, there’s every reason to expect he could find a better deal than that one-year, $43.33MM commitment for the 2024 season. After all, we just saw another future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander, sign a two-year deal that guaranteed him $50MM through his age-39 and age-40 seasons — at a time when he’d only thrown six innings in a two-year period, owing to Tommy John surgery. Wild as it might sound for a 39-year-old Scherzer to forgo a one-year deal at more than $43MM, the possibility shouldn’t be completely dismissed.
For the 2022-23 seasons, however, Scherzer joins deGrom atop a Mets rotation that isn’t short on injury risk but is also teeming with talent. That iconic pairing will be followed by the likes of Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Tylor Megill — though it certainly remains possible that the Mets will further augment the starting staff. Though both Megill and Peterson have shown plenty of promise, either has solidified himself as an MLB contributor over multiple big league seasons. And, with limited upper-level depth behind the current top five, it’s easy to see the appeal in installing another veteran arm and pushing Megill and Peterson to “overqualified” Triple-A depth roles in the event of injuries on the big league staff.
The recent free-agent flurry leaves the Mets with a jaw-dropping $268MM payroll projection, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with upwards of $273MM in luxury-tax obligations. Even with that stratospheric number in place, however, we’re not even two weeks removed from owner Steve Cohen stating plainly at GM Billy Eppler’s introductory press conference that when it comes to payroll for Eppler and the rest of the baseball operations department: “It’s whatever they need.”
We can’t know exactly what lies in store for the luxury-tax system — not with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire this week — but it appears all but set in stone that the Mets will be penalized to an extent in each of the next two seasons. Beyond the aforementioned $273MM in luxury obligations for the 2022 season, New York already has more than $191MM in luxury obligations in 2023. The team’s ultra-aggressive couple of weeks since Eppler joined the organization suggests that number will climb with not only additional moves in the current offseason but quite likely in the 2022-23 offseason.
This type of spending spree is perhaps the exact scenario Mets fans dreamed of when Cohen purchased the Mets from the Wilpon family — an ownership group that had never taken payroll beyond $158MM despite playing in the game’s largest market. Cohen’s aggressive spending and public candor even on baseball operations matters (e.g. his frustration regarding Steven Matz negotiations) hearken back to another famed New York owner, the late George Steinbrenner, who never shied away from impulsive personnel decisions or speaking his mind.
It won’t become clear for years whether this will be the norm under Cohen or if he merely felt compelled to act opportunistically in such a deep free-agent market. That’s of little consequence in the immediate future, however; Cohen and Eppler are living in the here-and-now, aggressively adding to a Mets roster that looks considerably more like a postseason threat than it did even 96 hours ago. There’s little reason to expect the Mets to take their foot off the gas, even if some of the remaining moves have to wait until the looming lockout has been resolved.
Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.
Mets In Serious Talks With Max Scherzer
10:48am: Martino tweets that an agreement between the two parties again appears close.
9:50am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets’ offer to Scherzer is in the three-year, $129MM range. Sherman suggested earlier this morning that the Mets had the top offer and the Dodgers seemed reluctant to go beyond two years (Twitter thread).
Nov. 29, 9:33am: The Mets and Scherzer’s camp have “re-engaged” after some brief downtime overnight, Martino tweets. Martino suggests that talks could be nearing the finish line.
Nov. 28: The Mets are nearing a multi-year contract with Max Scherzer, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter link). Based on multiple reports from earlier tonight, Scherzer may be on the verge of signing the largest average annual value contract in baseball history. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier tonight that the Mets were prepared to go beyond $40MM in annual salary, and in Martino’s latest tweet, he writes that New York is offering Scherzer a $42MM AAV over either three or four years. Scherzer is represented by the Boras Corporation.
The news puts an exclamation point on a pitching search that has thus far been fruitless for the Mets, as targets such as Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz have all come off the board. Matz’s deal with the Cardinals even drew some public ire from Mets owner Steve Cohen on Twitter, who accused agent Rob Martin of “unprofessional behavior” in their negotiations.
Those near-misses now fade into the background in the wake of what might be a precedent-setting contract with one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Scherzer was seen as more likely to sign with a team on the West Coast, as per his preferences when leveraging his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers back at the trade deadline. As such, teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants were known to be in the hunt for the 37-year-old ace, but instead, Scherzer now seems poised to return to both the East Coast and the NL East itself, after six-plus seasons with the Nationals.
While Scherzer was already a highly accomplished pitcher before he went to Washington, he rose to legendary status after signing his seven-year, $210MM free agent pact with the Nats in the 2014-15 offseason. Scherzer’s stint in D.C. included two NL Cy Young Awards (to go with his 2013 AL Cy with the Tigers), two no-hitters, a 20-strikeout game, a 2.80 ERA over 1229 innings, and the crowning achievement of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship. All told, a strong case can be made that Scherzer’s deal is the best mega-deal in the history of free agency.
Once the Nationals fell out of contention this summer, Scherzer and Trea Turner were dealt to Los Angeles in a blockbuster swap, and Scherzer continued to pitch well in leading the Dodgers to the NLCS. The Dodgers were still considered as the favorites to re-sign Scherzer up until just earlier this evening, as the Dodgers’ deep pockets gave them the flexibility to consider the type of huge AAV required to meet Scherzer’s asking price. MLB Trade Rumors indeed projected Scherzer to set a new AAV standard, predicting him to a land a three-year, $120MM pact to remain in Dodger blue.
Mets May Be Favorite For Max Scherzer
9:47PM: The Dodgers remain in the mix for Scherzer but are “not the favorites at the moment,” as per Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times. Indeed, there are “growing indications” that the Mets will sign Scherzer, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman adding that Scherzer and the Mets have made progress towards an agreement.
8:47PM: The Mets have offered Scherzer a multi-year contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that could be a three-year, $120MM pact.
7:16PM: The Mets’ offer to Scherzer has an average annual value of more than $40MM, according to Martino, but the length of the offer isn’t known. This would represent the largest AAV for any player in baseball history.
6:58PM: The Dodgers “are perceived as the favorite” to sign Scherzer, Heyman tweets. However, the “Mets’ full attention at [the] moment” is directed at Scherzer. If Scherzer does sign elsewhere, New York will likely turn its attention towards Gausman as the backup plan. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets hope to have either Scherzer or Gausman signed within the next 24 hours.
11:54AM: Max Scherzer is expected to make a decision about where to play next year before the impending lockout, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Heyman lists the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Mets as some of the teams that are under consideration.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, with the general expectation being that a lockout and transaction freeze will then be implemented if no new deal is in place at that time. That has led to a flurry of activity in recent weeks, as many teams, agents and players seemingly prefer to get their business done now as opposed to waiting until some undetermined date when the lockout is finished. It would appear that Scherzer is in that camp.
The starting pitching market has easily been the busiest so far this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks, with Corey Kluber also signing today. Kevin Gausman is also reportedly planning on signing in the coming days.
Scherzer’s free agency is a very unique case, given his elite skill level and relatively older age, compared to the other top names on the free agent market. Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, the only two hurlers ahead of Scherzer on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, are both currently 30 years old, whereas Scherzer turned 37 in July. But given his tremendous track record of success in his career, his prediction was for a much higher salary on an annual basis, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. That would be a new high for AAV across the league, breaking Gerrit Cole‘s record of $36MM. Gausman and Ray, on the other hand, were predicted to get to the vicinity of $25MM annually, but each over a longer term than Scherzer.
Scherzer already has an incredible career resume, with 14 seasons of quality work, including eight All-Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards, a World Series championship and various other accolades. In 2021, he logged 179 1/3 innings between the Nationals and Dodgers. His 2.46 ERA was the lowest of his career. His 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than league average. In short, he would be a huge upgrade for any team in the league. But if he’s going to cost around $40MM per year, budgetary concerns will make him a better fit on some teams than others.
The Mets have already been throwing lots of money around, as they recently signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. That spending spree has pushed their 2022 payroll to $225MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already well beyond last year’s opening day payroll of $195MM, which was itself a franchise high, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. To add someone like Scherzer would require pushing their previous boundaries even further.
The Angels also ran a franchise-high payroll on opening day last year, getting up to almost $182MM, per Cot’s. For 2022, they’re currently sitting at $157MM, per Martinez, about $25MM shy of last year. Adding Scherzer would likely involve blowing past that number, as well as changing their previous avoidance of giving out contracts of any kind of length to starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, they haven’t given a starting pitcher a deal longer than one year since Joe Blanton way back in 2012, and even that was just two years.
The Giants have lots of payroll space, but also lots of holes to fill. Cot’s pegs their 2021 opening day number just shy of $150MM, but they’ve been as high as $200MM before, in 2018. They’re currently sitting around $115MM for next year, per Martinez, but still have many areas of need. Their rotation lost four members from 2021, and though they’ve since re-signed Anthony DeSclafani, they still need to replace Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. (It was reported a week ago that Wood was close to deal to return, though it doesn’t seem to have been finalized yet.) They could also use a right-handed outfielder, having already been connected to Starling Marte and Seiya Suzuki. It seems more likely that they would spread their budget around to multiple arms, but if they want to make a run at a huge name like Scherzer, they have a payroll situation that could make it doable.
As for the Dodgers, whom acquired Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, their opening day payroll in 2021 was almost $248MM, per Cot’s, easily the highest such number in the league. They’re currently sitting over $205MM for next year, according to Martinez, and could welcome Scherzer back into the fold if they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year.
AL West Notes: Ray, Gray, Angels, Bryant, Mariners, Athletics
Even after adding Noah Syndergaard, the Angels are still looking to further supplement their pitching staff. In recent days, they’ve been connected in rumors to Steven Matz, before he became a Cardinal, as well as Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Robbie Ray “remains atop their wish list.”
As Rosenthal notes, the Angels’ budget is a big unanswered question surrounding all of this. He lists their 2022 payroll as around $157MM. Adding someone like Ray would likely add more than $25MM to that total. (MLBTR predicted Ray would get a contract of $130MM over five years, an average annual value of $26MM.) That alone would put the Angels above their 2021 opening day payroll of $182MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with still other roster issues to address. A budget increase would likely be required in order to facilitate a plan involving a contract of that size.
Another question is whether the Angels will deviate from their longstanding avoidance of committing to free agent starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the Angels haven’t given a starting pitcher a contract longer than a single year since signing Joe Blanton way back in 2012. Ray, who recently turned 30 and won the AL Cy Young Award, would certainly require the Angels to wade into territory they haven’t been in for quite some time.
Another potential target is Jon Gray, as Rosenthal notes the Angels “had interest in Gray at the deadline.” Signing Gray would likely add less to the 2022 payroll than Ray, but probably still require the club to lay out a multi-year deal. MLBTR predicted Gray to get a contract of $56MM over four years, an AAV of $14MM.
More from the AL West…
- Even after yesterday’s Adam Frazier trade, the Mariners could still add to their position player mix, with Kris Bryant apparently piquing their interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. With Kyle Seager now a free agent, Seattle figures to have a new third baseman for the first time in quite a while. Bryant’s bat would certainly be welcome in a Seattle lineup that ranked 22nd in runs scored in 2021. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bryant has had a wRC+ of at least 123 in each season of his career. In 2021, he hit 25 home runs and slashed .265/.353/.481, producing 3.6 fWAR in the process. However, Seattle may have to be patient with their interest in Bryant, as Murray relays that he’s not expected to sign before the transaction freeze that is reportedly going to be implemented after the CBA expires on Wednesday.
- It is widely expected that the expiration of the current CBA on December 1 will lead to a transaction freeze, which has teams and agents scrambling to get business done before then. One thing getting pushed to the backburner is managerial hirings, as Ken Rosenthal reports that teams will still be able to hire managers and coaches during a lockout. (Same link as above.) That means that the two clubs currently without managers, the Mets and Athletics, will likely wait until next week to get serious about searching for new skippers.
Free Agent Notes: Baez, Pham, Mariners
The Mets‘ interest in re-signing Javier Baez reportedly didn’t end with the club’s agreement with Eduardo Escobar yesterday, yet Baez and the Mets are still “apart on price” in contract talks, according to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). With Starling Marte and Mark Canha also joining the roster, it would seem as though the Mets are already bolstering the lineup in the event that Baez doesn’t return, and their current focus on pitching upgrades could at least temporarily put an end to their efforts to land Baez or any other position players.
Timing could be an issue with Baez, as there has been speculation that he would prefer to get his next contract finalized before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1. (Martino is among those who believes Baez will indeed sign prior to that date.) If the gap between Baez and the Mets is too large to overcome in the next few days, that could open the door for one of the other teams known to be interested in the shortstop’s services. The Tigers and Red Sox have been linked to Baez, with the Mariners, Rangers, and Yankees somewhat more speculatively attached to Baez via their interest in the shortstop market as a whole.
More on other free agent situations around baseball….
- Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said earlier this month that his club had interest in re-signing Tommy Pham, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes that the Padres are indeed still considering Pham for their left field vacancy. After subpar performance in his first two years in San Diego, Pham wouldn’t be too expensive, which Lin notes is still a consideration for a team trying to manage its payroll under the luxury tax threshold if possible. Today’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners cleared some projected salary off the books, and if the Padres do succeed in unloading Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer‘s contracts, that will ease an even more substantial amount of the financial burden from Preller’s maneuverings.
- Speaking of the Mariners, the Frazier trade represents Seattle’s first big strike of the offseason, though the club has been rumored in connection with multiple prominent free agents. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other reporters that the Mariners currently offers on the table to two free agents, with Dipoto noting that one of the two players is “notable.” Reading between the lines, it would seem as if Dipoto was implying that one of the two offers was a significant multi-year pact, while the other offer may have been a shorter-term, less-expensive deal.
Mets Now Focused On Pitching
9:35 am: The Mets are “not overly optimistic” about signing Scherzer, despite having had conversation with agent Scott Boras, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). Gausman is their current focus. Martino adds that Gausman could make his signing decision as early as today.
8:49 am: The Mets began their offseason in earnest yesterday, adding a trio of soon-to-be 33-year-old bats to the lineup. Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha bring certainty to the beginning of new GM Billy Eppler’s tenure, as well as defensive flexibility and right-handed thump. The additions could be all they need to solidify their lineup (along with Nick Plummer as a potential reserve outfielder), but they don’t address what is arguably the Mets’ biggest need: pitching.
With Noah Syndergaard in Los Angeles and the Steven Matz debacle in the rear-view, pitching remains a priority, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Free agent Marcus Stroman fits the bill, but the worm-killing righty has been vocal of late, both about his interest in returning to New York, and about the organization’s apparent focus on other arms, per Stroman himself (via Twitter).
Former Rockies’ right-hander Jon Gray may be one of those other potential targets, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). It’s unclear if Sherman is speculating on fit or reporting team interest, but Gray is a popular name regardless, given his perceived upside as he leaves Colorado. Beyond Gray, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman are two of the top arms on the market that the Mets may be eyeing. Either one would be an upgrade for the top of the Mets rotation, which currently has talent, but plenty of injury uncertainty in Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker.
Latest On Mets’ Starting Pitching Targets
9:10 pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this afternoon that the Mets seemed to be prioritizing Max Scherzer and Gausman above Ray at the top of the market, which could align with concerns about forfeiting a top 15 pick by signing a qualified free agent. Heyman notes that the Mets remain interested in Stroman, among others.
1:23 pm: Billy Eppler has only formally been the Mets’ general manager a bit more than a week, but he’s jumped right into the mix and is working to bolster the team’s starting staff. Eppler said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s “engaged in a ton of starting pitching right now” (Twitter link, with audio).
A spotlight was shined on the Mets’ interest in the rotation market this week when owner Steve Cohen voiced frustration with Steven Matz‘s representatives after the lefty spurned his former Mets club to sign a four-year deal with the Cardinals. The Mets also attended Justin Verlander‘s showcase earlier this offseason, though he has since re-signed with the Astros.
Starting pitching is an obvious need for the Mets, who’ve already watched Noah Syndergaard reject their qualifying offer for a slightly larger guarantee with the Angels. The Mets also don’t know whether free agent Marcus Stroman will return, and they’ve already announced that Carlos Carrasco underwent surgery to remove bone fragments from his pitching elbow. The current timeline has Carrasco returning early in Spring Training, but that issue, combined with David Peterson‘s late-July foot surgery and the forearm issue that ended Jacob deGrom‘s season in early July, only serves to further muddy the outlook.
The Mets are reportedly loath to sign a free agent who’d require them to surrender a draft pick, as doing so would mean forfeiting their second-highest pick — in this instance, the No. 14 overall selection in the draft. New York also has the No. 11 pick as compensation for not signing top pick Kumar Rocker in the 2021 draft. That might take Robbie Ray off the table, but he’s the lone remaining free agent starting pitcher tied to draft compensation. (The New York Post’s Mike Puma argued this week that even that steep penalty shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Mets from pursuing Ray.) The remainder of free agents, including Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray and Carlos Rodon, among others, can be signed absent of draft-pick considerations.
The trade market, of course, presents myriad other opportunities. One interesting note raised by Eppler — speaking more generally and not specifically with regard to the rotation — was the Mets’ ability and openness to take on a bad contract as a means of effectively purchasing a prospect from another club. Eppler was the Angels’ general manager when they traded 2019 first-round pick Will Wilson to the Giants in order to shed the remainder of Zack Cozart‘s contract while dealing with payroll limitations from his prior ownership. Now, Eppler suggests he could be on the opposite side of such a transaction.
“There are avenues to go grab contracts elsewhere and tie prospects to them,” said Eppler. “Some teams are still doing that — most teams are not — but I think the openness and willingness to be able to say, ‘We’re going to spend a lot on this player, the contract might be a touch underwater, but we’re going to get this prospect back.’ Exploring those, and trying to push those through a little more — there’s an openness to do that here.”
There are various permutations of that arrangement. The Wilson/Cozart deal, in its simplest form, came down to the Giants effectively purchasing a prospect from the Eppler’s Angels. However, it’s also fairly common for teams to take on an underwater contract when acquiring a more desirable player, providing some salary relief in exchange for surrendering less in terms of prospect capital.
For instance, if the Mets were to make a strong push for one of the Athletics’ available starters (e.g. Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt), offering to take on the remaining $8.25MM owed to outfielder Stephen Piscotty could persuade the A’s to settle for a lesser return. To be clear, that’s just one example — and there’s no indication the A’s are open to that specific scenario. But, that type of arrangement is another in which Eppler could leverage the Mets’ financial might in trade talks.
Whichever route the Mets ultimately take, some kind of upgrade seems inevitable. Their current rotation projects to include deGrom, Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill and Peterson. It’s not at all a poor quintet if all are healthy, but for a big-market club with postseason aspirations, an additional veteran (or two) to add some dependable innings behind deGrom is a logical pursuit.
Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest
The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.
No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.
Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.
Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.
The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.
Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.
Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.
Steve Cohen Frustrated By Steven Matz Negotiations
Lefty Steven Matz is headed to the Cardinals on a four-year deal, pending a physical — the culmination of what appeared to be a rather competitive market for his services. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported in the leadup to Matz’s decision that eight teams had made offers, and some details on those offers have begun to trickle out. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Blue Jays made a three-year offer to retain Matz. Heyman lists the Jays, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets as finalists.
Grabbing the most headlines in the morning hours after Matz’s decision, however, was Mets owner Steve Cohen’s displeasure with the manner in which the free-agent bidding drew to a close. Cohen, never afraid to speak his mind on social media, blasted agent Rob Martin of Icon Sports this morning via Twitter: “I’m not happy this morning. I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent. I guess words and promises don’t matter.”
In a follow-up with Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter thread), Cohen made clear that his frustration lied with the agents and not Matz himself. However, Cohen and the Mets were under the impression Matz’s camp would circle back one final time before accepting an offer elsewhere, which didn’t happen. Heyman tweets that the Mets would have matched the four-year, $44MM offer from St. Louis but were never afforded the opportunity.
“Most relationships I have had with agents have been wonderful,” Cohen tells Sherman. “The conversations have been good, they really have been. But here this was different. This was something so over the line. I can’t imagine what the agent was thinking in the context of how they reached out to us and the reasons they wanted to come back. I have ever (sic) had an agent do that before with me.”
Martin initially declined comment but eventually, as Cohen’s comments continued to mount, issued a statement of his own (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal):
“We are aware of Mr. Cohen’s tweet. It’s unfortunate that he chose to take his frustrations to Twitter. I will not do the same and instead will take the high road which is consistent with both my character and the character of our client. Steven Matz grew up a Mets fan, loved his time there, and continues to invest in the New York Community through his efforts supporting NY’s First Responders. As a result of all that, there was a strong pull to return to the Mets. But ultimately he made the decision he felt was best for him and his family. Steven is and always will be grateful to the Mets and Mets fans, but he now looks forward to his next chapter with the tremendous franchise in St. Louis.”
Some may wonder about possible long-term ramifications of the spat, but Martin tells Sherman that he called Cohen to speak to him not long after this morning’s tweet. Martin suggested that tension was lessened and that his agency and Matz hold no grudge toward the Mets organization.
Mets Claim Antonio Santos
The Mets have claimed right-hander Antonio Santos off waivers from the Rockies, per a club announcement. Between this claim and the Mets’ earlier signing of outfielder Nick Plummer to a Major League contract, the team is up to 39 players on its 40-man roster.
Santos, 25, has spent parts of the past two seasons with the Rox but yielded 17 runs through 17 1/3 innings in his brief MLB auditions. He was also hit hard in 45 1/3 Triple-A frames in 2021, posting a 7.94 ERA with a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. That said, Santos averages nearly 96 mph with his heater and complemented that primary offering with four secondary pitches.
Despite his impressive velocity, Santos hasn’t missed bats at a huge level in the minors (19.1% strikeout rate). However, he’s also walked only 5.1% of his opponents in the minors, and the resulting 14.1 K-BB% is at least somewhat intriguing when paired with that fastball and a deep arsenal of potential second/third pitches. Santos still has a minor league option remaining, too, so he can give the Mets some depth and flexibility in the bullpen this winter.