Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
- The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
- Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
- Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
- The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
- The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
- Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
- New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
- The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
- Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
Earlier Updates
Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings
On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.
On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?
The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius‘ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots. Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.
Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him? Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.
LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.
Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.
Did the Lowrie and LeMahieu signings make sense for the Mets and Yanks?
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Yes, they were smart moves 33% (4,104)
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No, they didn't 25% (3,124)
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Lowrie did, LeMahieu didn't 24% (3,055)
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Lemahieu did, Lowrie didn't 18% (2,192)
Total votes: 12,475
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
- The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
- The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
- The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
- The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.
Earlier Updates
Mets, Jacob deGrom Avoid Arbitration
Reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and the Mets have settled on a one-year deal worth $17MM, tweets Andy Martino of SportsNet New York. After earning $7.4MM in 2018, deGrom earns a $9.6MM raise from his 2018 salary, breaking the record for an arbitration raise set by Mookie Betts just hours ago. The $17MM figure represents the highest all-time salary for a pitcher in his third year of arbitration eligibility. deGrom, who will remain under team control through 2020, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.9MM in 2019. It should be noted that the projections’ guiding algorithm cannot account for context, which made deGrom a near lock to eclipse his relatively light projection, as Matt outlined here.
The 30-year-old righty enjoyed a season for the ages in 2018, posting a minuscule 1.70 ERA in 217 innings of work and striking out 269 batters. His efforts earned him 29 out of 30 first-place votes for the NL Cy Young Award despite an unremarkable 10-9 record. However, with the Mets making headlines as perhaps this winter’s most active team, new GM (and former deGrom representative) Brodie Van Wagenen hopes that the team’s offseason upgrades will translate to increased run support for the Mets’ stellar starting staff and vault the club into playoff contention. The staff ace, of course, is an integral part of that winning formula, though it remains unclear whether the team will be willing to dole out a hefty extension in future offseasons to keep deGrom around for years to come. Of course, the club may look to Noah Syndergaard, just 26 years of age, as an alternative, and a significant financial obligation to Robinson Cano over the coming five years may inhibit the team’s payroll flexibility. Regardless, the $17MM payday for deGrom will raise the bar for arbitration-eligible pitchers and lay the groundwork for what his earnings could look like next offseason, when he will be entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency.
Mets Sign Luis Avilan To Minor League Deal
The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Luis Avilan to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training, where he’ll compete for a bullpen job. Avilan is repped by SPS Sports Group.
Non-tendered by the Phillies earlier this winter, Avilan will land with their division rivals in hopes of cracking a Mets bullpen that is light on left-handed options at present. Daniel Zamora represents the team’s primary 40-man option, while fellow veteran Hector Santiago was also recently inked to a minors pact with an invite to big league camp.
Avilan, 29, has turned in consistently solid numbers at the MLB level over the past three seasons but struggled to stick on various 40-man rosters. Dating back to 2016, he’s pitched to a sharp 3.32 ERA with averages of 10.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a pristine 0.4 HR/9. He posted a grounder rate well north of 50 percent from 2016-17, though that plummeted to 36 percent this past season. Regardless, Avilan has been a useful big league reliever and generally been a nightmare for opposing lefties, who have managed just a .205/.302/.289 slash against him across the past three seasons. Right-handers have fared better but haven’t exactly thrived against him, hitting .263/.349/.386.
Free Agent Rumors: Moustakas, Phillies, ChiSox, Dozier, Mariners
A few notes on the free-agent market as a quiet night in baseball draws to a close…
- Both the Phillies and White Sox are looking at Mike Moustakas as a fallback option in the event that Manny Machado signs elsewhere, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The 30-year-old Moustakas is a fairly logical fallback option for either club should it miss out on Machado, though Moustakas is a less concrete upgrade over either club’s top incumbent options. Morosi notes that the Phils will likely try to trade Maikel Franco in the event that either Machado or Moustakas signs in Philadelphia, and presumably the ChiSox would shift Yolmer Sanchez into a utility role should it land either free-agent target. Morosi lists the Padres as a potential landing spot for Moustakas as well, though with a preexisting logjam of corner options in San Diego, that fit seems more difficult to envision without some additional roster shuffling by general manager A.J. Preller.
- The Mets are among the teams to “have talks regarding Brian Dozier lately,” tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred, though there’s no indication that the Mets plan to make a serious pursuit of Dozier. Both the Nationals and Rockies have been linked to Dozier over the past couple of weeks, and Heyman notes that the market for the longtime Twins slugger is beginning to pick up a bit of steam. Regarding the link between the Mets and Dozier, it’s worth pointing out that Mike Puma of the New York Post reported just yesterday that the Mets don’t have much more money to spend this offseason, although they’ve spent very little since GM Brodie Van Wagenen publicly stated that they “still have some real money to spend.”
- Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto was clear about his plan to make some further additions on the free agent market following the signing of Yusei Kikuchi, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. “We’re likely to sign both Major and Minor League contracts,” said Dipoto. “I’d be shocked if we don’t sign at least one Major League reliever. And I’d be surprised — heavily surprised — if we didn’t sign one middle-of-the-field type stabilizer in the infield to provide protection and allow J.P. Crawford to transition at the appropriate pace.” There’s still a slew of free-agent relievers remaining on the open market (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and free agent shortstops are also in fairly abundant supply. Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria and Alcides Escobar are among the available infielders with strong defensive reputations.
NL Notes: Harper, Machado, Rendon, Cubs, Mets
As outfielder Bryce Harper prepares to sit down with the Phillies, still-early intrigue seems to be brewing in his market. Notably, the Philadelphia organization has yet to make any formal offers to Harper, per NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes it’s still not certain whether the team will do so. As has long been rumored, Manny Machado is still the apparent top choice of the Phils brass. Notably, per Salisbury, the club is “expected to make another offer” to Machado this week as his own market continues to develop.
- Of course, Harper’s long-time club in D.C. still has interest in a reunion, with some intriguing recent information emerging of late. But that drama may be overshadowing an equally important aspect of the Nationals‘ offseason: the possibility of a deal with pending free agent Anthony Rendon. As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes, this Friday’s deadline to swap arbitration salary submissions may push the sides to think hard about the broader contractual situation. If talks on a long-term deal are progressing, perhaps the sides won’t bother trying to nail down a 2019 salary at this point. If not, they could well focus more energy on settling on an arb number before the exchange deadline. Beyond that, of course, there’s the question of Harper’s status and how it’ll tie into that of Rendon — who’s also a client of agent Scott Boras.
- If all that’s not intriguing enough, the conflicting signals surrounding the Cubs‘ interest in Harper remain an oddity of the winter. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic weighs in on the matter in a subscription post, suggesting there’s no reason to believe there’s a match. Indeed, per Rosenthal, the Chicago front office is so strapped for 2019 payroll space that it more or less can’t make any further acquisitions without clearing the cash to do so. The example he gives is reliever Adam Warren, the former Cubs hurler who performed better after his departure from the club. While Warren is certainly deserving of a MLB job and guaranteed money, there’s no reason to think he’ll be a particularly expensive player. As Rosenthal notes, there are still some available ways for the Cubs to clear salary space, though most would seem to involve weakening the MLB roster. Affording Harper, then, would seemingly require a change of heart from ownership or some true creativity.
- As Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to tinker with the club’s 40-man roster, Rosenthal adds, it’s possible there’ll be a few more departures. Backstops Travis d’Arnaud and Tomas Nido have drawn interest and could follow Kevin Plawecki out the door. In such a scenario, it seems, the Mets would go onto the open market for another catcher. Dumping d’Arnaud would have the added benefit of clearing some real payroll space, though obviously a replacement would cost something as well.
- Notably, as he continues to seek ways to upgrade the Mets bullpen, Van Wagenen seems largely to have run through his available funds, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). It seems the organization will mostly be bargain-hunting the rest of the way. That also explains the fact that the Mets have seemingly bowed out of the market for expensive outfielders. Per Andy Martino of SNY.tv, via Twitter, the club isn’t shopping Juan Lagares in trades — though a deal still hasn’t been ruled out entirely — and expects him to line up in center field, where he’ll be supplemented by the just-acquired Keon Broxton. Presumably, Broxton will also spell the team’s left-handed-hitting corner outfielders as well.
Mets, David Wright Mutually Agree To Release; Wright Joins Front Office
3:28pm: Per a club announcement, the Mets and Wright have “mutually agreed” upon his release from the active roster. He’ll take on a new role as a special advisor to COO Jeff Wilpon and Van Wagenen. Though the specifics of his new position were not divulged, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that Wright will spend less time in uniform as a coach/mentor than other retired players-turned-front office advisors and will spend more time actually in the front office.
“David attended the recent Winter Meetings at the suggestion of myself and Brodie Van Wagenen where he contributed throughout with our baseball operations group and wanted to pursue this route,” said Wilpon in a statement accompanying the press release. “We are thrilled he will remain close to the Mets family and will be a great asset in this new role.”
There’s no mention of the remaining money on his contract, though presumably the Mets reached a buyout agreement with the insurance company. The new role for Wright opens up a spot for Wright on the 40-man roster, which had previously been full.
12:30pm: David Wright‘s playing days are done, but the Mets icon will transition into a front office role with the team and serve as a special assistant to general manager Brodie Van Wagenen moving forward, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.
Wright, of course, is still under contract with the Mets for another two seasons but made clear upon his emotional return to the field in late September that the lone game he started would be the final one of his career. After more than two years of grueling rehab from neck, shoulder and spinal injuries, medical professionals informed Wright that his condition simply would not improve to the point where he could safely resume the rigors of playing baseball professionally. Wright is owed $27MM through the 2020 season, though that sum is heavily insured, and the Mets are working toward a buyout arrangement that would not require Wright to be on the 40-man roster throughout the remainder of this offseason and next offseason. (Simply releasing him would mean paying the whole $27MM sum.)
Ackert notes that Wright’s role will be a part-time position that allows him to stay involved in the game and with an organization to which he remains extremely loyal, while still affording him ample time to spend with his family. Such roles are hardly uncommon for retired players — particularly those who had a long history with a specific organization. Ichiro Suzuki moved into that type of role with the Mariners early last season, and the Twins gave Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and LaTroy Hawkins comparable positions a couple years ago. Michael Young holds a similar position in the Rangers organization, and a look through the front-office directories throughout the game would reveal dozens more familiar names.
Responsibilities involved with special assistant roles vary case by case, though it’s common for former players turned special assistants to be on-hand as a coach/mentor in Spring Training. They also frequently visit minor league affiliates throughout the season to work with younger players as they rise through organizational ranks. Some also have a hand in evaluations leading up the amateur draft each June and also in various player development and in internal player evaluation.
Mets, Hector Santiago Agree To Minor League Deal
Jan. 7: Santiago’s deal comes with a $2MM base salary in the Majors and allows him to earn an extra $100K for every fifth start up through 25 total starts, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The contract contains an out clause that stipulates the Mets will release Santiago on July 31 if he’s not on the MLB roster and if another club is willing to put him on its 25-man roster.
Jan. 5: The Mets have reportedly picked up some rotation and bullpen depth, adding veteran left-hander Hector Santiago on a minor league deal. He’ll head to Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Santiago is repped by Excel Sports.
Santiago, 31, appeared in 49 games (7 starts) for the White Sox last season, pitching to a sub-replacement-level 4.41 ERA/5.09 FIP/5.38 xFIP in 102 IP. The journeyman lefty apparently brought back one of the league’s only screwballs last season – which he featured regularly in his first stint on the Southside – in an effort to rejuvenate a floundering career. He was, yet again, quite homer-prone, surrendering 1.41 big flies per nine, a mark just slightly above his career average of 1.37 HR/9 a season.
The lefty has shown occasional aptitude for the strikeout over the course of his career, but it’s too often been offset by command issues – Santiago walked 5.29 men per nine last season, and has yet to finish a single big-league campaign with a total under 3.5 BB/9 in that category. He’ll look to compete for the 5th-starter role in the Mets’ rotation, currently occupied by Jason Vargas, with Seth Lugo, Corey Oswalt, and others – P.J. Conlon, Drew Gagnon, Chris Flexen, and more – also in the mix.
In 887 career MLB innings pitched with the ChiSox, Angels, and Twins, Santiago sports a career 4.05 ERA/4.88 FIP/5.05 xFIP. The lefty, it should be noted, is one of the rare pitchers to outperform his fielding-independent marks in every career season, owing in large part to his stellar 77% career strand rate.
Rich Mancuso first reported that the Mets and Santiago had a deal (Twitter link), and SNY’s Andy Martino clarified that it was a minor league pact (Twitter link).
AL Notes: Astros, Luhnow, Kikuchi, Orioles, Machado
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter links) and other reporters about today’s five-player trade with the Mets, noting that New York “was aggressive” in asking about J.D. Davis. The Astros weren’t originally thinking of moving Davis, but Luhnow explained that “there was enough of a market for him that we decided to go ahead and explore it because there’s no obvious spot for him on our 25-man roster next year, at this point.” The Mets‘ inclusion of catching prospect Scott Manea as part of the return going back to Houston “was a big part of it for us,” Luhnow said, due to the Astros’ lack of catching depth. In terms of future moves, Luhnow also said that the Astros are still considering the starting pitching and bullpen markets.
Here’s more from around the AL…
- Speaking to media (including the Kyodo News) in his return to Japan, Yusei Kikuchi mentioned that the Mariners were the first team to make him a contract offer. It isn’t clear if other teams also made offers after the fact and Seattle eventually altered its offer to win the bidding, or if perhaps the M’s were the only club to issue a concrete offer to the left-hander. The latter scenario seems rather unlikely, given that multiple teams reportedly had interest in Kikuchi during his posting period. Then again, given how impressed Kikuchi and agent Scott Boras were with the Mariners’ detailed plans for managing Kikuchi’s workload and arm health in his transition to Major League Baseball, it isn’t entirely out of the question that Kikuchi decided to jump on the offer, especially considering the money involved (at least $56MM, and worth as much as $106MM) in the deal’s unique salary structure.
- The Orioles have offered their bullpen coach job to minor league pitching coordinator John Wasdin, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Wasdin has been in his current role in the organization for the last two seasons, after spending the previous six years as a minor league pitching coach in the Athletics’ farm system. Wasdin briefly pitched for the O’s in 2001 as part of his 12-year career in the majors. It isn’t yet known if Wasdin will accept the offer, though regardless, Kubatko writes that the Orioles will head into 2019 with an entirely new coaching staff under new manager Brandon Hyde.
- The latest round of Manny Machado speculation had the free agent infielder reportedly visiting Chicago today, attending the Eagles/Bears NFL playoff game as a guest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf. As per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, however, this rumor wasn’t accurate. In terms of free agency, Machado is already seeing a Chicago vs. Philadelphia (vs. New York) battle play out, as the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees are the three teams most directly connected to his pursuit, and it’s possible these three clubs could be the finalists for Machado’s services.